Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture.

The 5 September 2012 M(w) 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.

Arc-parallel flow in the mantle wedge beneath Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Resolving flow geometry in the mantle wedge is central to understanding the thermal and chemical structure of subduction zones, subducting plate dehydration, and melting that leads to arc volcanism, which can threaten large populations and alter climate through gas and particle emission. Here we show that isotope geochemistry and seismic velocity anisotropy provide strong evidence for trench-parallel flow in the mantle wedge beneath Costa Rica and Nicaragua. This finding contradicts classical models, which predict trench-normal flow owing to the overlying wedge mantle being dragged downwards by the subducting plate. The isotopic signature of central Costa Rican volcanic rocks is not consistent with its derivation from the mantle wedge or eroded fore-arc complexes but instead from seamounts of the Galapagos hotspot track on the subducting Cocos plate. This isotopic signature decreases continuously from central Costa Rica to northwestern Nicaragua. As the age of the isotopic signature beneath Costa Rica can be constrained and its transport distance is known, minimum northwestward flow rates can be estimated (63-190 mm yr(-1)) and are comparable to the magnitude of subducting Cocos plate motion (approximately 85 mm yr(-1)). Trench-parallel flow needs to be taken into account in models evaluating thermal and chemical structure and melt generation in subduction zones.

Isla del Coco, on Cocos Plate, converges with Isla de San Andrés, on the Caribbean Plate, at 78mm/yr / La Isla del Coco, en la Placa de Cocos, converge con la Isla de San Andrés, en la Placa del Caribe, a 78 mm/año

Isla del Coco is the only land mass of the Cocos Plate that emerges above sea level. This makes it the only place where Cocos Plate motion can be measured using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) monitoring. Global Positioning System (GPS) observations have been carried out sporadically over more than two decades on Isla del Coco, allowing precise measurement of the motion of the Cocos Plate. Recently, in May 2011, a continuous GPS station was built and instrumented at Isla del Coco, in Wafer Bay, by OVSICORI-UNA and UNAVCO, as part of the COCONet regional GNSS network. Position time series from this CGPS station (ISCO: Isla del Coco) show a steady motion of Isla del Coco at a speed of 90.9±1.5mm/yr in the N35oE direction in ITRF2008 and convergence with the Caribbean Plate at 78±1mm/yr. This result is consistent with the findings of the earliest GPS studies, and agrees within uncertainty with the estimated convergence rate of 76.4±x mm/ yr of the MORVEL plate motion model. MORVEL is based on an average over the last 780,000 years, and our result suggests that Cocos-Caribbean plate motions have been constant over that time interval.

La Isla del Coco es la única porción emergida en la placa del Coco. Esta condición la hace el único lugar donde se puede medir, usando Sistemas de Navegación Global por Satélite (GNSS), la velocidad de dicha placa. Las mediciones con GPS en la Isla del Coco se han realizado por más de dos décadas, permitiendo obtener velocidades precisas. En mayo del 2001 se instaló una estación continua de GPS en la Isla del Coco como parte, tanto de la Red Regional de GNSS COCONet, como del Sistema de Monitoreo Geodinámico de Nicoya (SISMOGENICO). Resultados de esta estación continua muestran movimiento continuo de la Isla del Coco, con respecto a ITRF2008, a una velocidad de 90.9±1.5mm/año con dirección N35oE y convergencia con la placa del Caribe a 78±1mm/año. Estas velocidades son consistentes con las obtenidas por MORVEL, un modelo geológico de velocidades de placas representativo de los últimos 780,000 años, y sugieren que la convergencia de estas placas se ha mantenido constante durante ese lapso de tiempo.

Alerta temprana a San José por un debajo de la Península de Nicoya

Una brecha sísmica madura existe por debajo y frente a la península de Nicoya en el Pacífico norte de Costa Rica. Esta brecha, la brecha sísmica de Nicoya, es un segmento de la Fosa Mesoamericana donde la placa del Coco se subduce bajo la placa del Caribe. Terremotos de gran magnitud han ocurrido en este segmento en 1853, 1900 y 1950. La distribución de réplicas de terremotos ocurridos en la década de los 90s en los segmentos aledaños a esta brecha han permitido afinar su ubicación geográfica y determinar las dimensiones de la misma. Sin deslizamiento sísmico importante desde 1950, con una taza de convergencia de 88 mm/año y un área comprendida entre los 5000 y los 10000 km2, la brecha sísmica de Nicoya tiene ya potencial para generar un terremoto con magnitud superior a los 7.5 grados. El Valle Central de Costa Rica, donde se concentra la mayor concentración de su población e infraestructura, se encuentra entre 100 y 250 km de distancia del área potencial de ruptura de la brecha sísmica de Nicoya. estas distancias están dentro del rango de sistemas de alerta temprana para terremotos que han probado ya ser efectivos, haciendo de esta región un excelente sitio para la operación de uno de esos sistemas de alerta.(AU)