Accuracy of machine learning in the preoperative identification of ovarian borderline tumors: a meta-analysis.

AIM: The objective of this study is to explore the diagnostic value of machine learning (ML) in borderline ovarian tumors through meta-analysis. METHODS: Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases were comprehensively retrieved from database inception untill February 16, 2023. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was adopted to evaluate the risk of bias in the original studies. Sub-group analyses of ML were conducted according to clinical features and radiomics features. We separately discussed the discriminative value of ML for borderline vs benign and borderline vs malignant tumors. RESULTS: Eighteen studies involving 12,778 subjects were included in our analysis. The modeling variables mainly consisted of radiomics features (n=13) and a small number of clinical features (n=5). When distinguishing between borderline and benign tumors, the ML model based on radiomic features achieved a c-index of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.732-0.831), sensitivity of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.67-0.82), and specificity of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.67-0.81) in the validation set. When distinguishing between borderline and malignant tumors, the ML model based on radiomic features achieved a c-index of 0.916 (95% CI: 0.891-0.940), sensitivity of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78-0.91), and specificity of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.82-0.92) in the validation set. In addition, we analyzed the discriminatory ability of radiologists and found that their sensitivity was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.12-0.46) and specificity was 0.94 (95% CI: 0.90-0.97). CONCLUSIONS: ML has tremendous potential in the preoperative diagnosis and differentiation of borderline ovarian tumors and may be more accurate than radiologists in diagnosing and differentiating borderline ovarian tumors.

[Research progress on the impact of public health and social measures on influenza during the COVID-19 pandemic].

Public health and social measures (PHSMs) are one of the most important measures in the prevention and control of COVID-19 and have also been effective in suppressing the spread of influenza viruses, but their effectiveness has not been fully investigated. This study aimed to review the progress of research on the impact of PHSMs on influenza during the COVID-19 pandemic based on the latest evidence of the effectiveness of various PHSMs in controlling transmission of influenza viruses, to provide scientific evidence for optimizing influenza prevention and control strategies.

[Clinicopathological features of Sjogren's syndrome complicated with liver injury].

Objective: To study the clinicopathological features of Sjogren's syndrome (SS) with liver injury and to improve the understanding of this disease. Methods: Forty-nine patients with SS complicated with liver injury were collected from Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University from October 2008 to January 2022. All patients underwent ultrasound-guided liver biopsy, and all specimens were stained with HE. The histopathologic characteristics were observed and the pathologic indexes were graded. Immunohistochemical stains for CK7, CK19, CD38, MUM1 and CD10 were performed by EnVision method; and special histochemical stains for reticulin, Masson's trichrome, Rhodanine, Prussian blue, periodic acid Schiff (PAS) and D-PAS stains were conducted. Results: The age of patients ranged from 31 to 66 years, including 3 males and 46 females. SS combined with drug-induced liver injury was the most common (22 cases, 44.9%), followed by autoimmune liver disease (13 cases, 26.5%, including primary biliary cholangitis in eight cases, autoimmune hepatitis in 3 cases, and PBC-AIH overlap syndrome in 2 cases), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD, 9 cases, 18.4%) and other lesions (5 cases, 10.2%; including 3 cases of nonspecific liver inflammation, 1 case of liver amyloidosis, and 1 case of porto-sinusoidal vascular disease). Among them, 28 cases (57.1%) were associated with obvious interlobular bile duct injury, mainly in SS combined with PBC group and drug-induced liver injury group. Twenty-three cases (46.9%) were associated with hepatocyte steatosis of varying degrees. In SS with autoimmune liver disease group, ISHAK score, degree of fibrosis bile duct injury, bile duct remodeling, lymphocyte infiltration of portal area, and plasma cell infiltration, MUM1 and CD38 expression; serum ALP and GGT, IgM; elevated globulin; positive AMA, proportion of AMA-M2 positive and IgM positive were all significantly higher than those in other groups(all P<0.05). Serum ALT, direct bilirubin and SSA positive ratio in SS combined with drug liver group were significantly higher than those in other groups(all P<0.05). The serum total cholesterol level in SS combined with PBC group (P=0.006) and NALFD group (P=0.011) were significantly higher than those in other groups (P<0.05). Conclusions: The pathologic manifestations of SS patients with liver injury are varied. The inflammatory lesions of SS patients with autoimmune liver disease are the most serious, and the inflammatory lesions of SS patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-specific inflammation are mild. Comprehensive analysis of liver histopathologic changes and laboratory findings is helpful for the diagnosis of SS complicated with different types of liver injury.

Introgression and targeting of the Pl37 and Pl38 genes for downy mildew resistance from wild Helianthus annuus and H. praecox into cultivated sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.).

KEY MESSAGE: Two new downy mildew resistance genes, Pl37 and Pl38, were introgressed from wild sunflower species into cultivated sunflower and mapped to sunflower chromosomes 4 and 2, respectively Downy mildew (DM), caused by the oomycete pathogen Plasmopara halstedii (Farl.) Berl. & de Toni, is known as the most prevalent disease occurring in global sunflower production areas, especially in North America and Europe. In this study, we report the introgression and molecular mapping of two new DM resistance genes from wild sunflower species, Helianthus annuus and H. praecox, into cultivated sunflower. Two mapping populations were developed from the crosses of HA 89/H. annuus PI 435417 (Pop1) and CMS HA 89/H. praecox PRA-417 (Pop2). The phenotypic evaluation of DM resistance/susceptibility was conducted in the BC1F2-derived BC1F3 populations using P. halstedii race 734. The BC1F2 segregating Pop1 was genotyped using an Optimal GBS AgriSeq™ Panel consisting of 768 mapped SNP markers, while the BC1F2 segregating Pop2 was genotyped using a genotyping-by-sequencing approach. Linkage analysis and subsequent saturation mapping placed the DM resistance gene, designated Pl37, derived from H. annuus PI 435417 in a 1.6 cM genetic interval on sunflower chromosome 4. Pl37 co-segregated with SNP markers SPB0003 and C4_5738736. Similarly, linkage analysis and subsequent saturation mapping placed the DM resistance gene, designated Pl38, derived from H. praecox PRA-417 in a 0.8 cM genetic interval on sunflower chromosome 2. Pl38 co-segregated with seven SNP markers. Multi-pathotype tests revealed that lines with Pl37 or Pl38 are immune to the most prevalent and virulent P. halstedii races tested. Two germplasm lines, HA-DM15 with Pl37 and HA-DM16 with Pl38, were developed for use in sunflower DM-resistance breeding.

Whole-genome sequencing enables molecular dissection and candidate gene identification of the rust resistance gene R12 in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.).

KEY MESSAGE: We finely mapped the rust resistance gene R12 to a 0.1248-cM region, identified a potential R12 candidate gene in the XRQ reference genome, and developed three diagnostic SNP markers for R12. Rust is a devastating disease in sunflower that is damaging to the sunflower production globally. Identification and utilization of host-plant resistance are proven to be preferable means for disease control. The rust resistance gene R12 with broad-spectrum specificity to rust was previously localized to a 2.4 Mb region on sunflower chromosome 11. To understand the molecular mechanism of resistance, we conducted whole-genome sequencing of RHA 464 (R12 donor line) and reference genome-based fine mapping of the gene R12. Overall, the 213 markers including 186 SNPs and 27 SSRs' were identified from RHA 464 sequences and used to survey polymorphisms between the parents HA 89 and RHA 464. Saturation mapping identified 26 new markers positioned in the R12 region, and fine mapping with a large population of 2004 individuals positioned R12 at a genetic distance of 0.1248 cM flanked by SNP markers C11_150451336 and S11_189205190. One gene, HanXRQChr11g0348661, with a defense-related NB-ARC-LRR domain, was identified in the XRQr1.0 genome assembly in the R12 region; it is predicted to be a potential R12 candidate gene. Comparative analysis clearly distinguished R12 from the rust R14 gene located in the vicinity of the R12 gene on chromosome 11. Three diagnostic SNP markers, C11_147181749, C11_147312085, and C11_149085167, specific for R12 were developed in the current study, facilitating more accurate and efficient selection in sunflower rust resistance breeding. The current study provides a new genetic resource and starting point for cloning R12 in the future.

[Combination of anlotinib and irinotecan in the second-line treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer: a multicenter phase 1/2 trial].

Objective: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of anlotinib plus irinotecan in the second-line treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Methods: This prospective phase 1/2 study was conducted in 2 centers in China (Cancer Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Jiangsu Province Hospital). We enrolled patients with mCRC whose disease had progressed after first-line systemic therapy and had not previously treated with irinotecan to receive anlotinib plus irinotecan. In the phase 1 of the trial, patients received anlotinib (8 mg, 10 mg or 12 mg, po, 2 weeks on/1 week off) in combination with fixed-dose irinotecan (180 mg/m(2), iv, q2w) to define the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D). In the phase 2, patients were treated with the RP2D of anlotinib and irinotecan. The primary endpoints were MTD and objective response rate (ORR). Results: From May 2018 to January 2020, a total of 31 patients with mCRC were enrolled. Anlotinib was well tolerated in combination with irinotecan with no MTD identified in the phase 1, and the RP2D was 12 mg. Thirty patients were evaluable for efficacy analysis. Eight patients achieved partial response, and 21 had stable disease, 1 had progressive disease. The ORR was 25.8% and the disease control rate was 93.5%. With a median follow-up duration of 29.5 months, the median progression-free survival and overall survival were 6.9 months (95% CI: 3.7, 9.3) and 17.6 months (95% CI: 12.4, not evaluated), respectively. The most common grade 3 treatment-related adverse events (≥10%) were neutropenia (25.8%) and diarrhea (16.1%). There was no treatment-related death. Conclusion: The combination of anlotinib and irinotecan has promising anti-tumor activity in the second-line treatment of mCRC with a manageable safety profile.

[Thoracoscopic laparoscopy-assisted Ivor-Lewis resection of esophagogastric junction cancer].

Objective: To investigate the outcome of patients with esophagogastric junction cancer undergoing thoracoscopic laparoscopy-assisted Ivor-Lewis resection. Methods: Eighty-four patients who were diagnosed with esophagogastric junction cancer and underwent Ivor-Lewis resection assisted by thoracoscopic laparoscopy at the National Cancer Center from October 2019 to April 2022 were collected. The neoadjuvant treatment mode, surgical safety and clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed. Results: Siewert type Ⅱ (92.8%) and adenocarcinoma (95.2%) were predominant in the cases. A total of 2 774 lymph nodes were dissected in 84 patients. The average number was 33 per case, and the median was 31. Lymph node metastasis was found in 45 patients, and the lymph node metastasis rate was 53.6% (45/84). The total number of lymph node metastasis was 294, and the degree of lymph node metastasis was 10.6%(294/2 774). Among them, abdominal lymph nodes (100%, 45/45) were more likely to metastasize than thoracic lymph nodes (13.3%, 6/45). Sixty-eight patients received neoadjuvant therapy before surgery, and nine patients achieved pathological complete remission (pCR) (13.2%, 9/68). Eighty-three patients had negative surgical margins and underwent R0 resection (98.8%, 83/84). One patient, the intraoperative frozen pathology suggested resection margin was negative, while vascular tumor thrombus was seen on the postoperative pathological margin, R1 resection was performed (1.2%, 1/84). The average operation time of the 84 patients was 234.5 (199.3, 275.0) minutes, and the intraoperative blood loss was 90 (80, 100) ml. One case of intraoperative blood transfusion, one case of postoperative transfer to ICU ward, two cases of postoperative anastomotic leakage, one case of pleural effusion requiring catheter drainage, one case of small intestinal hernia with 12mm poke hole, no postoperative intestinal obstruction, chyle leakage and other complications were observed. The number of deaths within 30 days after surgery was 0. Number of lymph nodes dissection, operation duration, and intraoperative blood loss were not related to whether neoadjuvant therapy was performed (P>0.05). Preoperative neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with radiotherapy or immunotherapy was not related to whether postoperative pathology achieved pCR (P>0.05). Conclusion: Laparoscopic-assisted Ivor-Lewis surgery for esophagogastric junction cancer has a low incidence of intraoperative and postoperative complications, high safety, wide range of lymph node dissection, and sufficient margin length, which is worthy of clinical promotion.

[Clinical analysis of liver dysfunction induced by SHR-1210 alone or combined with apatinib and chemotherapy in patients with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma].

Objective: To investigate the clinical characteristics of abnormal liver function in patients with advanced esophageal squamous carcinoma treated with programmed death-1 (PD-1) antibody SHR-1210 alone or in combination with apatinib and chemotherapy. Methods: Clinical data of 73 patients with esophageal squamous carcinoma from 2 prospective clinical studies conducted at the Cancer Hospital Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from May 11, 2016, to November 19, 2019, were analyzed, and logistic regression analysis was used for the analysis of influencing factors. Results: Of the 73 patients, 35 had abnormal liver function. 13 of the 43 patients treated with PD-1 antibody monotherapy (PD-1 monotherapy group) had abnormal liver function, and the median time to first abnormal liver function was 55 days. Of the 30 patients treated with PD-1 antibody in combination with apatinib and chemotherapy (PD-1 combination group), 22 had abnormal liver function, and the median time to first abnormal liver function was 41 days. Of the 35 patients with abnormal liver function, 2 had clinical symptoms, including malaise and loss of appetite, and 1 had jaundice. 28 of the 35 patients with abnormal liver function returned to normal and 7 improved to grade 1, and none of the patients had serious life-threatening or fatal liver function abnormalities. Combination therapy was a risk factor for patients to develop abnormal liver function (P=0.007). Conclusions: Most of the liver function abnormalities that occur during treatment with PD-1 antibody SHR-1210 alone or in combination with apatinib and chemotherapy are mild, and liver function can return to normal or improve with symptomatic treatment. For patients who receive PD-1 antibody in combination with targeted therapy and chemotherapy and have a history of long-term previous smoking, alcohol consumption and hepatitis B virus infection, liver function should be monitored and actively managed in a timely manner.

[Efficacy and safety of neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with PD-1 antibody for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the real world].

Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with programmed death-1 (PD-1) antibody in operable, borderline or potentially resectable locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(ESCC) in the real world. Methods: The study retrospectively analyzed 28 patients with operable or potentially resectable locally advanced ESCC patients treated with preoperative chemotherapy combined with PD-1 inhibitor in Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School from April 2020 to March 2021. According to the clinical TNM staging system of the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer, there were 1, 15, 10, 1 and 1 case of stage Ⅱ, Ⅲ, ⅣA, ⅣB and unknown stage respectively. The treatment was two cycle of dual drug chemotherapy regimen including taxane plus platinum or fluorouracil combined with PD-1 antibody followed by tumor response assessment and surgery if the patient was eligible for resection. Results: Of the 28 patients, 1, 2, 3 and 4 cycles of chemotherapy combined with PD-1 antibody treatment completed in 1, 21, 5, and 1 patient, respectively. Objective response rate (ORR) was 71.4% (20/28), and disease control rate (DCR) was 100% (28/28). The incidence of adverse events exceeding grade 3 levels was 21.4% (6/28), including 3 neutropenia, 1 leukopenia, 1 thrombocytopenia and 1 immune hepatitis. There was no treatment-related death. Of the 23 patients underwent surgery, R0 resection rate was 87.0% (20/23), 13 patients had down staged to the T1-2N0M0 I stage, the pCR rate was 17.3% (4/23), and the pCR rate of primary tumor was 21.7% (5/23). Four patients received definitive chemoradiotherapy. One patient rejected surgery and other treatment after achieved PR response. Conclusion: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined PD-1 inhibitor is safe and has high efficacy in operable, borderline or potentially resectable locally advanced ESCC, and it is a promising regimen.

[Association of greenness exposure with waist circumference and central obesity in Chinese adults aged 65 years and over].

Objective: To examine the association of greenness exposure with waist circumference (WC) and central obesity in older adults in China. Methods: Based on the cross-sectional data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey in 2017-2018, 14 056 participants aged 65 years and over were included. Demographic characteristics, lifestyle, WC, and other information were collected through a questionnaire and physical examination. Based on the satellite monitoring data of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) provided by NASA, the annual mean of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) within a radius of 1 000 meters was obtained as the measurement value of greenness exposure. Multivariate linear regression model, multivariate logistic regression model, and restricted cubic splines (RCS) model were used to analyze the association and dose-response relationship between greenness exposure and WC and central obesity in older adults in China. Results: A total of 14 056 participants were enrolled with a median age of 84.0 years [IQR: 75.0-94.0 years]. About 45.0% (6 330) of them were male and 48.6% (5 853) were illiterate. There were 10 964 (78.0%) participants from rural. The mean of WC was (84.4±10.8) cm. Central obesity accounted for 60.2% (8 465), and the NDVI range was (-0.06, 0.78). After adjusting for confounding factors, the multivariate linear regression model showed that the change value of WC in the urban group [ß (95%CI):-0.49 (-0.93, -0.06)] was smaller than that in the rural [-0.78 (-0.98, -0.58)] for every 0.1 unit increase in NDVI (Pinteraction=0.022). Compared with the Q1 group in NDVI, WC of Q2 and Q3 groups in rural decreased, and the ß (95%CI) values were-1.74 (-2.5, -0.98) and-2.78 (-3.55, -2.00), respectively. The multivariate logistic regression model showed that after adjusting for confounding factors, the risk of central obesity decreased for urban and rural older adults with an increase of 0.1 unit in NDVI, and the OR (95%CI) values were 0.87 (0.80, 0.95) and 0.86 (0.82, 0.89), respectively (Pinteraction=0.284). Compared with the Q1 group in NDVI, the risk of central obesity in the Q2 and Q3 groups in rural was lower, and the OR (95%CI) values were 0.68 (0.58, 0.80) and 0.57 (0.49, 0.68), respectively. The results of the multivariate regression model with RCS showed that there was a non-linear association of NDVI with WC (Pnonlinear=0.006) and central obesity (Pnonlinear=0.025). Conclusion: Greenness exposure is negatively associated with WC and central obesity in older adults in China.

[Association of greenness, nitrogen dioxide with the prevalence of hypertension among the elderly over 65 years old in China].

Objective: To investigate the association of mixed exposure to greenness and nitrogen dioxide(NO2) and hypertension among the older adults aged 65 years and over in China. Methods: The study subjects were from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 2017 to 2018. A total of 15 423 older adults aged 65 years and over meeting the criteria were finally included in the study. A questionnaire survey was used to collect information on demographic characteristics, lifestyle habits and self-reported prevalence of hypertension. Blood pressure values were obtained through physical examination. The level of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) was measured by the Medium-resolution Imaging Spectral Radiator(MODIS) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA). The concentration of NO2 was from China's surface air pollutant data set. Meteorological data was from NASA MERRA-2. The exposure to NDVI and NO2 for each study subject was calculated based on the area within a 1 km radius around their residence. The association between mixed exposure of NDVI and NO2 as well as their interaction and hypertension in older adults was analyzed by using the multivariate logistic regression model. The restrictive cubic spline(RCS) function was used to explore the exposure-response relationship between greenness and NO2 and the risk of hypertension in study subjects. Results: The mean age of 15 423 older adults were (85.6±11.6). Women accounted for 56.3%(8 685/15 423) and 55.6%(8 578/15 423) lived in urban areas. The mean time of residence was (60.9±28.5) years. 59.8% of participants were with hypertension. The mean NDVI level was 0.41±0.13, and the mean NO2 concentration was (32.18±10.36) µg/cm3. The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NDVI was inversely and linearly associated with the hypertension in older adults, with the OR(95%CI) value of 0.959(0.928-0.992). Compared with the T1 group of NDVI, the risk of hypertension was lower in the T3 group, with the OR(95%CI) value of 0.852(0.769-0.944), and the trend test was statistically significant(P<0.05). Compared with the T1 group of NO2, the risk of hypertension was higher in the T2 and T3 groups, with OR(95%CI) values of 1.160(1.055-1.275) and 1.244(1.111-1.393), and the trend test was statistically significant (P<0.05). The result of the RCS showed that NDVI was inversely and linearly associated with hypertension in older adults. NO2 was nonlinearly associated with hypertension in older adults. The interaction analysis showed that NDVI and NO2 had a negative multiplicative interaction on the risk of hypertension, with OR(95%CI) value of 0.995(0.992-0.997). Conclusion: Exposure to greenness and NO2 are associated with hypertension in older adults.

[Efficacy of polyetheretherketone rod hybrid surgery in preventing proximal junctional failure after adult spinal deformity surgery].

Objective: To investigate the clinical outcome and preventive effect of polyetheretherketone(PEEK) rod hybrid surgery on proximal junction failure(PJF) after long-segment fusion of adult spinal deformity. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted to analyze patients with degenerative scoliosis/kyphosis who underwent long-segment decompression and fusion surgery at Department of Orthopedics, Peking University First Hospital from January 2017 to December 2021. A total of 75 patients were included in the study, including 14 males and 61 females, aged (67.2±6.8)years (range:55 to 84 years). According to the operation method chosen by the patients, the patients were divided into PEEK rod hybrid group (20 cases) and traditional titanium rod group (55 cases). The general information of the patients was collected, and the coronal and sagittal parameters of the spine were measured before operation, at 1 month after operation, and at the last follow-up. The clinical effect of surgery was judged by the visual analogue scale (VAS) and Oswestry disability index (ODI). Whether proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) and PJF occurred during the follow-up and the time of occurrence were recorded. Comparisons between groups were performed using independent sample t test, Mann-Whitney U test, χ2 test and Fisher's exact probability method. The data before and after surgery in the same group were compared using the paired sample t test and the Wilcoxon test. Results: There were no significant differences in age, gender, body mass index, bone mineral density, distal instrumented vertebrae, surgical segments, osteotomy method, operation time, and intraoperative bleeding between the two groups (all P>0.05). The follow-up time of the PEEK rod group was shorter(M(IQR)16.5(4.8) vs. 25.0(12.0),Z=-4.230,P<0.01). There were no significant differences in coronal, sagittal parameters, VAS and ODI between the two groups before operation (all P>0.05). Postoperative coronal Cobb angle, pelvic incidence, pelvic tilt, sacral slope, lumbar lordosis, thoracic kyphosis, sagittal vertical axis (SVA), VAS and ODI were significantly improved in both groups(all P<0.05). At the last follow-up, the SVA of the PEEK rod hybrid group was(3.74±2.40)cm, which was significantly lower than that of the titanium rod group (6.28±4.06)cm (t'=-3.318, P=0.002). At the last follow-up, the ODI of the PEEK rod hybrid group was 30.7±6.1, significantly better than the titanium rod group 39.3±17.2(t=-3.203, P=0.046). PJK occurred in 2 patients (10.0%) in the PEEK rod hybrid group, and no PJF phenomenon was observed. In the titanium rod group, 18 patients (32.7%) developed PJK, and 11 patients (20.0%) developed PJF. There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence of PJF between the PEEK rod hybrid group and the titanium rod group (P=0.031). Conclusions: PEEK rod hybrid surgery can achieve good clinical results in the treatment of adult spinal deformities. Compared with traditional titanium rod surgery, it can significantly reduce the incidence of postoperative PJF and improve the clinical function of patients.

Forecasting the monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing, China using the SARIMA model.

The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3-9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Characterization and mapping of a downy mildew resistance gene, Pl36, in sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.).

Downy mildew (DM) is one of the most serious diseases in sunflower-growing regions worldwide, often significantly reducing sunflower yields. The causal agent of sunflower DM, the oomycete pathogen Plasmopara halstedii, is highly virulent and aggressive. Studying regional disease spread and virulence evolution in the DM pathogen population is important for the development of new sunflower inbred lines with resistance to the existing DM pathogen. The sunflower line 803-1, as one of nine international differential hosts, has been used in the identification of P. halstedii virulent pathotypes in sunflower since 2000. The DM resistance gene in 803-1 was temporally designated Pl5 + based on allelic analysis but has not been molecularly characterized. In the present study, bulked segregant analysis and genetic mapping confirmed the presence of the Pl gene within a large gene cluster on sunflower chromosome 13 in 803-1, as previously reported. Subsequent saturation mapping in the gene target region with single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers placed this gene at an interval of 3.4 Mb in the XRQ reference genome assembly, a location different from that of Pl5. Therefore, the Pl gene in 803-1 was re-designated Pl36 because it is not allelic with Pl5. Four SNP markers co-segregated with Pl36, and SNP SFW05743 was 1.1 cM proximal to Pl36. The relationship of eight Pl genes in the cluster is discussed based on their origin, map position, and specificity of resistance/susceptibility to DM infection. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11032-022-01280-1.

Neuroradiology diagnostic errors at a tertiary academic centre: effect of participation in tumour boards and physician experience.

AIM: To quantify and correlate the diagnostic error rates in radiological interpretation with the experience of the attending neuroradiologist at a tertiary academic medical centre. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The institution's Neuroradiology Quality Assurance Database of diagnostic errors was searched for misses from 2014-2020. Attendance at Head and Neck (H&N), Brain, and Paediatric Neuroradiology (PN) tumour boards (TB) as the presenting radiologist was recorded. Number of post-fellowship years of clinical practice (CPY) and frequency of TB attendance were considered separate metrics of a radiologist's experience. Radiological errors were categorised as Total, H&N, Skull Base (SKB), Brain, or PN diagnostic errors. Diagnostic error rates per attending neuroradiologist within each category were correlated with the frequency of TB participation and CPY using Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. RESULTS: A total 607 examinations contained a diagnostic error. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between Total TB participation and Total, H&N, SKB, Brain error rates were: -0.89 (p=0.0002); -0.81 (p=0.002); -0.66 (p=0.03); -0.82 (p=0.002); respectively. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between CPY and Total, H&N, SKB, Brain and PN error rates were: 0.05 (p=0.88); 0.08 (p=0.82); 0.28 (p=0.41); -0.10 (p=0.77); -0.16 (p=0.63), respectively. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between H&N TB and H&N, SKB error rates; and between Brain TB attendance and Brain error rates were statistically significant (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: The present study shows a strong correlation between high TB participation rates and low diagnostic error rates. The number of years in practice did not appear to influence error rate.

[Influencing factors analysis on live birth outcome of D3 cleavage stage frozen-thawed embryo after overnight culture and development of nomogram prediction model].

Objective: To analyze the factors affecting the live birth outcome of D3 cleavage stage frozen-thawed embryos after overnight culture, and establish a nomogram model to predict the live birth probability. Methods: The clinical data of assisted reproductive patients treated with D3 cleavage stage frozen-thawed embryo transfer in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2017 to July 2020 were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 5 456 patients were divided into modeling group and validation group according to the ratio of 7∶3. The modeling group [3 831 patients with average age of (33±6) years] was used to evaluate the independent risk factors of the patient's live birth outcome through multivariate logistic regression analysis and construct the nomogram prediction model. The validation group [1 625 patients with average age of (33±6) years] was used to verify and calibrate the performance of the model. Results: The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk factors related to live birth outcome of D3 frozen-thawed embryos after overnight culture included: female age (OR=0.901,95%CI:0.889-0.914,P<0.001), body mass index (BMI) (OR=0.979,95%CI:0.957-1.002,P=0.072), endometrial thickness on the transfer day (OR=1.121,95%CI:1.080-1.164,P<0.001), the number of transferred embryos (OR=2.192,95%CI:1.867-2.579,P<0.001) and embryo division resumed after overnight culture (OR=1.405,95%CI:1.213-1.627,P<0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram model in the modeling group was 0.716 and that in the validation group was 0.739.Both sets of calibration curves fited well with the ideal curve, which illustrated that the model had good predictive ability. Conclusions: The female age, BMI endometrial thickness on the transfer day, the number of transferred embryos and the embryo division resumed after overnight culture are risk factors for the live birth outcome of frozen-thawed embryos after overnight culture. The nomogram established based on the above factors can help predict the probability of live birth after frozen-thawed embryo transfer.

[Application of combined detection of multiple pathogens in diagnosis and treatment of coronavirus disease 2019].

Due to the wide variety of pathogens causing respiratory tract infection and the close symptoms, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) needs to be differentiated from other common infections. Early comprehensive detection and accurate identification of respiratory infection pathogens is of great value for early diagnosis, curative effect, as well as monitor of the diseases. Combined detection of multiple pathogens can quickly and accurately detect and distinguish the pathogens, then provide rapid and reliable laboratory diagnostic basis for further treatment. This article elaborates the application and development of multiplex detection assay in the diagnosis of COVID-19 according to the recent research.

[Application of pretrained model based on electronic medical record in recognition of acute respiratory infection].

Objective: To evaluate the recognition of acute respiratory infection (ARI) by a pretrained model based on electronic medical records (EMRs). Methods: 38 581 EMRs were obtained from Chongqing University Three Gorges Hospital in December 2021. Bidirectional encoder representation from transformers (BERT) pretrained model was used to identify ARI in EMRs. The results of medical professionals were considered as the gold standard to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, Kappa value, and area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUC). Results: There were 3 817 EMRs in the test set, with 1 200 ARIs. A total of 1 205 cases were determined as ARI by the model, with a sensitivity of 92.67% (1 112/1 200) and a specificity of 96.45% (2 524/2 617). The model identified ARI with similar accuracy in males and females (AUCs 0.95 and 0.94, respectively), and was more accurate in identifying ARI cases in those aged less than 18 than in adults 18-59 and adults 60 and older (AUCs 0.94, 0.89 and 0.94, respectively). The current model had a better identification of ARIs in outpatient patients than that in hospitalized patients, with AUCs of 0.74 and 0.95, respectively. Conclusion: The use of the BERT pretrained model based on EMRs has a good performance in the recognition of ARI cases, especially for the outpatients and juveniles. It shows a great potential to be applied to the monitoring of ARI cases in medical institutions.

[Clinical study of digital six-axis external fixation frame based on CT data for tibiofibular fractures].

Objective: To investigate the clinical effect of applying the digital six-axis external fixation frame based on CT data in the treatment of tibiofibular fractures. Methods: The clinical data of 43 patients with tibiofibular fractures treated by the self-developed digital six-axis external fixation frame based on CT data at Integrated Orthopedic Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and Western Medicine,HongHui Hospital from January 2018 to January 2021 were retrospective analysis.There were 27 males and 16 females,aged (36.0±9.4) years(range:25 to 50 years).AO classification:15 cases of 42A,11 cases of 42B, and 17 cases of 42C.There were 7 open fractures and Gustilo fracture classification:2 cases of type Ⅰ,4 cases of type Ⅱ,and 1 case of type Ⅲ.The two or three plane rings were connected with six connecting rods to form a complete six-axis external fixation frame,and the distal and proximal fracture blocks were connected to the distal and proximal rings by fixation pins,and the lengths of the six connecting rods needed to be adjusted were calculated by using the supporting software according to the CT data after surgery,and then the lengths of the connecting rods were adjusted one by one to complete the reduction of the fracture. The reduction accuracy of this six-axis external fixation brace was evaluated by measuring postoperative radiographs; postoperative recovery and complications were collected,the time of brace removal was recorded,and the function of the affected limb was evaluated according to the Johner-Wruhs score at the final follow-up. Results: Postoperative radiographs showed that all patients achieved satisfactory reduction with lateral displacement(M(IQR)) of 2.3(2.5) mm (range:0.3 to 7.3 mm),anteroposterior displacement of 2.1 (2.4) mm (range:0.3 to 5.7 mm),anteroposterior angulation of 2.5(2.4)°(range:0 to 5°),internal and external angulation of 2.1(1.5)°(range:0 to 4°), and no significant internal or external rotational deformity was detected on the exterior.On the second postoperative day,all patients were able to walk with partial weight-bearing on crutches. All 43 patients were followed up for more than 6 months,with a follow-up period of (33.3±7.3) weeks (range:24 to 42 weeks).The external fixation frame was removed after the fracture healed.The external frame was removed at 20(3)weeks (range:18 to 25 weeks) postoperatively. Up to the final follow up, no secondary fracture occurred in any of them.The Johner-Wruhs score of the affected limb at the last follow-up was excellent in 39 cases and good in 4 cases. Conclusion: The digital six-axis external fixator based on CT data for tibiofibular fractures has the advantages of precise reduction,firm fixation,simple operation,rapid fracture healing,and minimal trauma, which is a minimally invasive method for treating tibiofibular fractures,especially suitable for patients with poor skin and soft tissue conditions such as open injuries.

Discovery and mapping of two new rust resistance genes, R17 and R18, in sunflower using genotyping by sequencing.

KEY MESSAGE: Discovery of two rust resistance genes, R17 and R18, from the sunflower lines introduced from South Africa and genetic mapping of them to sunflower chromosome 13. Rust, caused by the fungus Puccinia helianthi Schw., is one of the most serious diseases of sunflower in the world. The rapid changes that occur in the virulence characteristics of pathogen populations present a continuous threat to the effectiveness of existing rust-resistant hybrids. Thus, there is a continued need for the characterization of genetically diverse sources of rust resistance. In this study, we report to identify two new rust resistance genes, R17 and R18, from the sunflower lines, KP193 and KP199, introduced from South Africa. The inheritance of rust resistance was investigated in both lines using two mapping populations developed by crossing the resistant plants selected from KP193 and KP199 with a common susceptible parent HA 89. The F2 populations were first genotyped using genotyping by sequencing for mapping of the rust genes and further saturated with markers in the target region. Molecular mapping positioned the two genes at the lower end of sunflower chromosome 13 within a large gene cluster. Two co-segregating SNP markers, SFW01497 and SFW08875, were distal to R17 at a 1.9 cM genetic distance, and a cluster of five co-segregating SNPs was proximal to R17 at 0.7 cM. R18 co-segregated with the SNP marker SFW04317 and was proximal to two cosegregating SNPs, SFW01497 and SFW05453, at 1.9 cM. These maps provide markers for stacking R17 or R18 with other broadly effective rust resistance genes to extend the durability of rust resistance. The relationship of the six rust resistance genes in the cluster was discussed.