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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled patients with AH per National Institute for Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day postadmission mortality, 3 artificial intelligence algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined through Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce posttest probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30 d) and 27.9% (90 d) in the derivation cohort versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779-0.844) and 0.799 (0.769-0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease variations, age-serum bilirubin-international normalized ratio-serum Creatinine score, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores ( p < 0.001). ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence Ensemble score > 0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing artificial intelligence within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/ .
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INTRODUCTION: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) occurs in up to 65% of cardiac surgery patients and is associated with an increased risk for stroke and mortality. Electrolyte disturbances in sodium (Na+), potassium (K+), total calcium (Ca2+), chloride (Cl-), and magnesium (Mg2+) are predisposing factors for POAF, but these imbalances are yet to be used to predict POAF. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the development of POAF can be predicted by blood plasma ionic composition. METHODS: Metabolic panels of patients with no prior history of atrial fibrillation who did (n = 763) and did not develop POAF (n = 2144) after cardiac surgery were obtained from the Carilion Clinic electronic medical record system. We initially evaluated serum Na+, K+, Ca2+, Cl-, and Mg2+ in the two groups using descriptive statistics via scatter and spaghetti plots and then with predictive modeling via logistic regression and random forest models. RESULTS: Neither scatter nor spaghetti plots of electrolyte data revealed a significant difference between those who did and did not develop POAF. Two logistic regression models and two random forest models with POAF status as the outcome were generated using the first observation for each electrolyte and the coefficient of the linear regression, which was obtained from a linear fit of the scatter plot. The random forest model using the first observation had a sensitivity of only 12.2%, but all four models had specificities more than 97%. CONCLUSIONS: Neither of the two logistic regression nor two random forest models were able to effectively predict the development of POAF from plasma ionic concentrations, but the random forest models effectively classified patients who would not develop POAF.
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Fibrilação Atrial , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/etiologia , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/diagnóstico , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/etiologia , Fatores de RiscoAssuntos
Neoplasias do Colo/patologia , Pólipos do Colo/patologia , Neoplasias de Células Epitelioides Perivasculares/patologia , Biomarcadores Tumorais/análise , Biópsia , Colectomia , Neoplasias do Colo/química , Neoplasias do Colo/cirurgia , Pólipos do Colo/química , Pólipos do Colo/cirurgia , Desmina/análise , Feminino , Humanos , Imuno-Histoquímica , Antígeno MART-1/análise , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias de Células Epitelioides Perivasculares/química , Neoplasias de Células Epitelioides Perivasculares/cirurgia , Antígeno gp100 de Melanoma/análiseAssuntos
Adenocarcinoma/complicações , Colo/microbiologia , Colo/patologia , Neoplasias do Colo/complicações , Endocardite Bacteriana/microbiologia , Melena/etiologia , Infecções Estreptocócicas/microbiologia , Streptococcus agalactiae/isolamento & purificação , Adenocarcinoma/patologia , Biópsia , Neoplasias do Colo/patologia , Colonoscopia , Endocardite Bacteriana/diagnóstico , Feminino , Humanos , Imuno-Histoquímica , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Necrose , Infecções Estreptocócicas/diagnósticoRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis are characterized by chronic inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract. Mucosal healing (MH) is a therapeutic goal in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Current data suggest that Black patients may experience worse clinical outcomes than White patients with IBD. This study assessed MH between Black and White patients with IBD. METHODS: Retrospective analysis was performed on Black and White adults with IBD who were hospitalized for an active flare. The presence of MH was assessed at 6-18 months after hospitalization. IBD treatments received before and during hospitalization, within 6 months, and 6-18 months after discharge were recorded. C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were collected at hospitalization and 6-18 months after discharge; the difference was reported as delta CRP. RESULTS: One hundred nine patients were followed up after hospitalization. Of those 88 (80.7%) were White patients, and 21 (19.3%) were Black patients. White and Black patients received similar proportions of IBD treatment before ( P = 0.2) and during ( P = 0.6) hospitalization, within 6 months ( P = 0.1), and 6-18 months ( P = 0.1) after discharge. Black patients achieved numerically higher rates of MH (15/21 = 71.4% vs 53/88 = 60.2%, P = 0.3) and delta CRP ( P = 0.2) than White patients, however, not statistically significant. DISCUSSION: In patients admitted to the hospital with an IBD flare with similar treatment and care, there was a trend toward higher rates of MH in Black patients compared with White patients. These data suggest that MH is likely not the only factor that is associated with Black patients experiencing worse clinical outcomes when compared with White patients.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD) can develop alcohol-associated fatty liver disease (AFLD). However, the impact of AFLD on outcomes remains unclear. We studied the impact of AFLD on readmission, 30-day mortality, and overall mortality in patients admitted with AUD. METHODS: Hospitalized patients with AUD between 2011 and 2019 at a tertiary medical center were retrospectively evaluated. Our population included patients with AUD with AFLD: AST and ALT elevation and serum bilirubin <3â mg/dl. Patients with AUD without evidence of liver disease served as control and were labeled as no ALD. Patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC) and alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) were included for comparison. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable regression for predictors of mortality and survival were performed. RESULTS: There were 7522 patients of which 32.44% were female with mean age of 51.86â ±â 14.41 years. Patient distribution included no ALD (nâ =â 3775), AFLD (nâ =â 2192), AC (nâ =â 1017) and AH (nâ =â 538) groups. Compared to no ALD group, AFLD group was associated with significantly higher 30-day mortality [4.43% vs. 1.56%, hazard ratio (HR): 2.84; P â <â 0.001], overall mortality [15.97% vs. 12.69%, HR 1.40, P â <â 0.001], and 30-day readmission [21.85% vs. 18.49%, odds ratio: 1.21; P â <â 0.01]. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that AFLD is not a benign entity and poses significant mortality risk. Our results suggest that AFLD may be under-recognized and highlight the need for focused management and close follow-up after discharge.
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Alcoolismo , Fígado Gorduroso Alcoólico , Hepatite Alcoólica , Hepatopatias Alcoólicas , Humanos , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Masculino , Readmissão do Paciente , Estudos Retrospectivos , Hepatopatias Alcoólicas/complicações , Fígado Gorduroso Alcoólico/complicações , Cirrose Hepática Alcoólica/diagnóstico , Cirrose Hepática Alcoólica/complicações , Alcoolismo/complicações , Alcoolismo/epidemiologia , Hepatite Alcoólica/complicaçõesRESUMO
The etiologies of short bowel syndrome (SBS) can be stratified into congenital or acquired etiologies, with the latter being more prevalent. Small intestinal surgical resection is the most common acquired etiology, employed in settings including mesenteric ischemia, intestinal injury, radiation enteritis, and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) complicated by internal fistulas. We describe a case of a 55-year-old Caucasian male with a history of idiopathic superior mesenteric artery (SMA) ischemia post-SMA placement complicated by recurrent small bowel obstructions. He presented with SMA stent occlusion and infarction, leaving him with 75 cm of post-duodenal small bowel after emergent surgical resection. He was trialed on enteral nutrition and progressed to parenteral nutrition (PN) after failure to thrive. With intensive counseling, his compliance improved, and he was able to briefly maintain adequate nutrition status with supplemental total parenteral nutrition. After a period of being lost to follow-up, he succumbed to complications from untreated SBS. This case highlights the need for intensive nutritional support for patients with short bowel syndrome and awareness of clinical complications.
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Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.
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The pancreas is an unusual source of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding. GI bleeding from the pancreas is most frequently a result of complications from acute or chronic pancreatitis resulting in vascular damage and bleeding into the pancreatic duct. Rarely, however, a pancreatic pseudocyst can come into contact with the GI tract and form a fistula. However, these fistulas can be difficult to identify during endoscopy due to their lateral position, and computed tomography is often necessary to make a definitive diagnosis. Erosion of the nearby vasculature as a result of the fistula can lead to bleeding. Embolization of the affected vessel is the standard of care, but particular attention should be given to not empirically embolize due to risk of complications. Here, we describe a case of an upper GI bleed due to a pancreatic pseudocyst that fistulized through the duodenal wall.
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The global burden of viral hepatitis remains substantial despite advances in antiviral therapy and effective vaccines. There are five hepatitis viruses (hepatitis A, B, C, D, and E). Mortality related to hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections is among the top four global infectious diseases, together with human immunodeficiency virus infection, malaria, and tuberculosis. Of those deaths, approximately 47% are attributable to hepatitis B virus, 48% to hepatitis C virus and the remainder to hepatitis A virus and hepatitis E virus. Ending hepatitis epidemics as a major public health threat is feasible with the tools and approaches currently available. Effective vaccines are available for preventing viral hepatitis A, B and E infections. New oral, well-tolerated treatment regimens for chronic hepatitis C patients can achieve cure rates of over 90%. Effective treatment is also available for people with chronic hepatitis B virus infection; although for most people such treatment needs to be long-term, and recent advanced aim at a "functional cure" of hepatitis B. In this review article, we discuss the most recent advances of the diagnosis and treatment of viral hepatitis.