Misclassification of Loss to Care Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Improved Capture of Silent Transfers Through Surveillance Linkage Using Statewide Mandatorily Reported Laboratory Measures.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-positive individuals lost to follow-up from particular clinics may not be lost to care (LTC). After linking Vanderbilt's Comprehensive Care Clinic cohort to Tennessee's statewide HIV surveillance database, LTC decreased from 48.4% to 35.0% at 10 years. Routine surveillance linkage by domestic HIV clinics would improve LTC and retention measure accuracy.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts. CONCLUSIONS: The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Evaluating Clinic-Based Interventions to Reduce Racial Differences in Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Mortality remains elevated among Black versus White adults receiving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in the United States. We evaluated the effects of hypothetical clinic-based interventions on this mortality gap. METHODS: We computed 3-year mortality under observed treatment patterns among >40 000 Black and >30 000 White adults entering HIV care in the United States from 1996 to 2019. We then used inverse probability weights to impose hypothetical interventions, including immediate treatment and guideline-based follow-up. We considered 2 scenarios: "universal" delivery of interventions to all patients and "focused" delivery of interventions to Black patients while White patients continued to follow observed treatment patterns. RESULTS: Under observed treatment patterns, 3-year mortality was 8% among White patients and 9% among Black patients, for a difference of 1 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI], .5-1.4). The difference was reduced to 0.5% under universal immediate treatment (95% CI, -.4% to 1.3%) and to 0.2% under universal immediate treatment combined with guideline-based follow-up (95% CI, -1.0% to 1.4%). Under the focused delivery of both interventions to Black patients, the Black-White difference in 3-year mortality was -1.4% (95% CI, -2.3% to -.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical interventions, particularly those focused on enhancing the care of Black patients, could have significantly reduced the mortality gap between Black and White patients entering HIV care from 1996 to 2019.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning. METHODS: We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results. RESULTS: We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Hospital Readmissions Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States and Canada, 2005-2018: A Collaboration of Cohort Studies.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmission trends for persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) in North America in the context of policy changes, improved antiretroviral therapy (ART), and aging are not well-known. We examined readmissions during 2005-2018 among adult PWH in NA-ACCORD. METHODS: Linear risk regression estimated calendar trends in 30-day readmissions, adjusted for demographics, CD4 count, AIDS history, virologic suppression (<400 copies/mL), and cohort. RESULTS: We examined 20 189 hospitalizations among 8823 PWH (73% cisgender men, 38% White, 38% Black). PWH hospitalized in 2018 versus 2005 had higher median age (54 vs 44 years), CD4 count (469 vs 274 cells/µL), and virologic suppression (83% vs 49%). Unadjusted 30-day readmissions decreased from 20.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 17.9%-22.3%) in 2005 to 16.3% (95% CI, 14.1%-18.5%) in 2018. Absolute annual trends were -0.34% (95% CI, -.48% to -.19%) in unadjusted and -0.19% (95% CI, -.35% to -.02%) in adjusted analyses. By index hospitalization reason, there were significant adjusted decreases only for cardiovascular and psychiatric hospitalizations. Readmission reason was most frequently in the same diagnostic category as the index hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Readmissions decreased over 2005-2018 but remained higher than the general population's. Significant decreases after adjusting for CD4 count and virologic suppression suggest that factors alongside improved ART contributed to lower readmissions. Efforts are needed to further prevent readmissions in PWH.

Relationships Between Patient Race and Residential Race Context With Missed Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Visits in the United States, 2010-2015.

BACKGROUND: Racial inequities exist in retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care and multilevel analyses are needed to contextualize and address these differences. Leveraging data from a multisite clinical cohort of people with HIV (PWH), we assessed the relationships between patient race and residential characteristics with missed HIV care visits. METHODS: Medical record and patient-reported outcome (PRO; including mental health and substance-use measures) data were drawn from 7 participating Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) sites including N = 20 807 PWH from January 2010 through December 2015. Generalized estimating equations were used to account for nesting within individuals and within census tracts in multivariable models assessing the relationship between race and missed HIV care visits, controlling for individual demographic and health characteristics and census tract characteristics. RESULTS: Black PWH resided in more disadvantaged census tracts, on average. Black PWH residing in census tracts with higher proportion of Black residents were more likely to miss an HIV care visit. Non-Black PWH were less likely to miss a visit regardless of where they lived. These relationships were attenuated when PRO data were included. CONCLUSIONS: Residential racial segregation and disadvantage may create inequities between Black PWH and non-Black PWH in retention in HIV care. Multilevel approaches are needed to retain PWH in HIV care, accounting for community, healthcare setting, and individual needs and resources.

Optimizing Treatment for Human Immunodeficiency Virus to Improve Clinical Outcomes Using Precision Medicine.

In first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, some subgroups of patients may respond better to an efavirenz-based regimen than an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimen, or vice versa, due to patient characteristics modifying treatment effects. Using data based on nearly 16,000 patients from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design from 2009-2016, statistical methods for precision medicine were employed to estimate an optimal treatment rule that minimizes the 5-year risk of the composite outcome of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses, serious non-AIDS events, and all-cause mortality. The treatment rules considered were functions that recommend either an efavirenz- or InSTI-based regimen conditional on baseline patient characteristics such as demographic information, laboratory results, and health history. The estimated 5-year risk under the estimated optimal treatment rule was 10.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6, 11.3), corresponding to an absolute risk reduction of 2.3% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.8) when compared with recommending an efavirenz-based regimen for all patients and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.0, 4.2) when compared with recommending an InSTI-based regimen for all. Tailoring ART to individual patient characteristics may reduce 5-year risk of the composite outcome compared with assigning all patients the same drug regimen.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Initial Prescription of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People With HIV in the US.

Importance: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes. Objectives: To estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Exposures: Combined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens. Results: Of 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, -1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, -1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, -6% [95% CI, -8% to -4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

Five-Year Mortality for Adults Entering Human Immunodeficiency Virus Care Under Universal Early Treatment Compared With the General US Population.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains elevated over those in the US general population, even in the years after entry into HIV care. We explore whether the elevation in 5-year mortality would have persisted if all adults with HIV had initiated antiretroviral therapy within 3 months of entering care. METHODS: Among 82 766 adults entering HIV care at North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration clinical sites in the United States, we computed mortality over 5 years since entry into HIV care under observed treatment patterns. We then used inverse probability weights to estimate mortality under universal early treatment. To compare mortality with those for similar individuals in the general population, we used National Center for Health Statistics data to construct a cohort representing the subset of the US population matched to study participants on key characteristics. RESULTS: For the entire study period (1999-2017), the 5-year mortality among adults with HIV was 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.6%-8.2%) higher than expected based on the US general population. Under universal early treatment, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV would have been 7.2% (95% CI: 5.8%-8.6%). In the most recent calendar period examined (2011-2017), the elevation in mortality for people with HIV was 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0%-3.3%) under observed treatment patterns and 2.1% (.0%-4.2%) under universal early treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Expanding early treatment may modestly reduce, but not eliminate, the elevation in mortality for people with HIV.

A Clinical Prediction Model for Unsuccessful Pulmonary Tuberculosis Treatment Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread availability of curative therapy, tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes remain suboptimal. Clinical prediction models can inform treatment strategies to improve outcomes. Using baseline clinical data, we developed a prediction model for unsuccessful TB treatment outcome and evaluated the incremental value of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related severity and isoniazid acetylator status. METHODS: Data originated from the Regional Prospective Observational Research for Tuberculosis Brazil cohort, which enrolled newly diagnosed TB patients in Brazil from 2015 through 2019. This analysis included participants with culture-confirmed, drug-susceptible pulmonary TB who started first-line anti-TB therapy and had ≥12 months of follow-up. The end point was unsuccessful TB treatment: composite of death, treatment failure, regimen switch, incomplete treatment, or not evaluated. Missing predictors were imputed. Predictors were chosen via bootstrapped backward selection. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated with c-statistics and calibration plots, respectively. Bootstrap internal validation estimated overfitting, and a shrinkage factor was applied to improve out-of-sample prediction. Incremental value was evaluated with likelihood ratio-based measures. RESULTS: Of 944 participants, 191 (20%) had unsuccessful treatment outcomes. The final model included 7 baseline predictors: hemoglobin, HIV infection, drug use, diabetes, age, education, and tobacco use. The model demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.77; 95% confidence interval, .73-.80) and was well calibrated (optimism-corrected intercept and slope, -0.12 and 0.89, respectively). HIV-related factors and isoniazid acetylation status did not improve prediction of the final model. CONCLUSIONS: Using information readily available at treatment initiation, the prediction model performed well in this population. The findings may guide future work to allocate resources or inform targeted interventions for high-risk patients.

The Impact of COVID-19 on the HIV Care Continuum in a Large Urban Southern Clinic.

Access to care is essential for people with HIV (PWH) but may have been affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study of adult PWH receiving care in a large southeastern comprehensive care clinic in the United States. Patients in care between January 1, 2017, and July 30, 2020, were included. Race/ethnicity, sex, HIV-1 RNA, CD4 + lymphocyte count were included as baseline covariates. Outcomes included clinic attendance, receipt of HIV-1 RNA PCR testing, and virologic suppression (HIV-1 RNA < 200 copies/mL); outpatient encounters included new patient encounters, follow-up visits, and mental health encounters. Total medical encounters, including telemedicine, decreased by 827 visits (33%) when comparing the second quarters of 2019 and 2020. New patient encounters decreased by 23.5% from 81 to 62 during this period. The second quarter of 2020 saw the lowest number of new patient visits since 2017. HIV-1 RNA testing and the proportion of patients with virologic suppression decreased during the pandemic (p < 0.001 for both). Total mental health encounters, on the other hand, increased by 14% during April-June 2020 compared to April-June 2019. Mental health electronic communications increased by 60% from 312 to 500 during the same period, with a 20% increase in medication refills. The COVID-19 pandemic affected outpatient visits, viral load surveillance, and virologic suppression but led to an increase in mental health encounters in a comprehensive care clinic setting.

Mortality Among Persons Entering HIV Care Compared With the General U.S. Population : An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population. OBJECTIVE: To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. PARTICIPANTS: 82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. MEASUREMENTS: Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. RESULTS: Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017. LIMITATION: Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors. CONCLUSION: Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Current and Past Immunodeficiency Are Associated With Higher Hospitalization Rates Among Persons on Virologically Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy for up to 11 Years.

BACKGROUND: Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) with persistently low CD4 counts despite efficacious antiretroviral therapy could have higher hospitalization risk. METHODS: In 6 US and Canadian clinical cohorts, PWH with virologic suppression for ≥1 year in 2005-2015 were followed until virologic failure, loss to follow-up, death, or study end. Stratified by early (years 2-5) and long-term (years 6-11) suppression and lowest presuppression CD4 count <200 and ≥200 cells/µL, Poisson regression models estimated hospitalization incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) comparing patients by time-updated CD4 count category, adjusted for cohort, age, gender, calendar year, suppression duration, and lowest presuppression CD4 count. RESULTS: The 6997 included patients (19 980 person-years) were 81% cisgender men and 40% white. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count <200 cells/µL (44%), patients with current CD4 count 200-350 vs >500 cells/µL had aIRRs of 1.44 during early suppression (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-2.06), and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.03-2.72) during long-term suppression. Among patients with lowest presuppression CD4 count ≥200 (56%), patients with current CD4 351-500 vs >500 cells/µL had an aIRR of 1.22 (95% CI, .93-1.60) during early suppression and 2.09 (95% CI, 1.18-3.70) during long-term suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Virologically suppressed patients with lower CD4 counts experienced higher hospitalization rates and could potentially benefit from targeted clinical management strategies.

Hospitalization Rates and Causes Among Persons With HIV in the United States and Canada, 2005-2015.

BACKGROUND: To assess the possible impact of antiretroviral therapy improvements, aging, and comorbidities, we examined trends in all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization rates among persons with HIV (PWH) from 2005 to 2015. METHODS: In 6 clinical cohorts, we followed PWH in care (≥1 outpatient CD4 count or HIV load [VL] every 12 months) and categorized ICD codes of primary discharge diagnoses using modified Clinical Classifications Software. Poisson regression estimated hospitalization rate ratios for calendar time trends, adjusted for demographics, HIV risk factor, and annually updated age, CD4, and VL. RESULTS: Among 28 057 patients (125 724 person-years), from 2005 to 2015, the median CD4 increased from 389 to 580 cells/µL and virologic suppression from 55% to 85% of patients. Unadjusted all-cause hospitalization rates decreased from 22.3 per 100 person-years in 2005 (95% confidence interval [CI], 20.6-24.1) to 13.0 in 2015 (95% CI, 12.2-14.0). Unadjusted rates decreased for almost all diagnostic categories. Adjusted rates decreased for all-cause, cardiovascular, and AIDS-defining conditions, increased for non-AIDS-defining infection, and were stable for most other categories. CONCLUSIONS: Among PWH with increasing CD4 counts and viral suppression, unadjusted hospitalization rates decreased for all-cause and most cause-specific hospitalizations, despite the potential effects of aging, comorbidities, and cumulative exposure to HIV and antiretrovirals.

The Impact of State Mask-Wearing Requirements on the Growth of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States.

In ecologic analyses of US states, piecewise multivariable models showed lower case-rate slopes after implementation of mask requirements: -1.0% (95% confidence interval, -1.34% to -.57%) and -0.44% (-.86% to -.03%) per 100 000 per day in early- and late-adopter states, respectively, compared with never-adopter states. Our findings support statewide mask requirements to mitigate transmission of coronavirus disease 2019.

Resistance-Conferring Mutations on Whole-Genome Sequencing of Fluoroquinolone-resistant and -Susceptible Mycobacterium tuberculosis Isolates: A Proposed Threshold for Identifying Resistance.

BACKGROUND: Fluoroquinolone resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is conferred by DNA gyrase mutations, but not all fluoroquinolone-resistant Mtb isolates have mutations detected. The optimal allele frequency threshold to identify resistance-conferring mutations by whole-genome sequencing is unknown. METHODS: Phenotypically ofloxacin-resistant and lineage-matched ofloxacin-susceptible Mtb isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing at an average coverage depth of 868 reads. Polymorphisms within the quinolone-resistance-determining region (QRDR) of gyrA and gyrB were identified. The allele frequency threshold using the Genome Analysis Toolkit pipeline was ~8%; allele-level data identified the predominant variant allele frequency and mutational burden (ie, sum of all variant allele frequencies in the QRDR) in gyrA, gyrB, and gyrA + gyrB for each isolate. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed the optimal measure of allele frequency and potential thresholds for identifying phenotypically resistant isolates. RESULTS: Of 42 ofloxacin-resistant Mtb isolates, area under the ROC curve (AUC) was highest for predominant variant allele frequency, so that measure was used to evaluate optimal mutation detection thresholds. AUCs for 8%, 2.5%, and 0.8% thresholds were 0.8452, 0.9286, and 0.9069, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 69% and 100% for 8%, 86% and 100% for 2.5%, 91% and 91% for 0.8%. The sensitivity of the 2.5% and 0.8% thresholds were significantly higher than the 8% threshold (P = .016 and .004, respectively) but not significantly different between one another (P = .5). CONCLUSIONS: A predominant mutation allele frequency threshold of 2.5% had the highest AUC for detecting DNA gyrase mutations that confer ofloxacin resistance, and was therefore the optimal threshold.

CD4 Count at Entry into Care and at Antiretroviral Therapy Prescription among Adults with Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States, 2005-2018.

From 2005 to 2018, among 32013 adults with human immunodeficiency virus entering care, median time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) prescription declined from 69 to 6 days, CD4 count at entry into care increased from 300 to 362 cells/µL, and CD4 count at ART prescription increased from 160 to 364 cells/µL.

Efavirenz Pharmacogenetics and Weight Gain Following Switch to Integrase Inhibitor-Containing Regimens.

BACKGROUND: Unwanted weight gain affects some people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who are prescribed integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs). Mechanisms and risk factors are incompletely understood. METHODS: We utilized 2 cohorts to study pharmacogenetics of weight gain following switch from efavirenz- to INSTI-based regimens. In an observational cohort, we studied weight gain at 48 weeks following switch from efavirenz- to INSTI-based regimens among patients who had been virologically suppressed for at least 2 years at a clinic in the United States. Associations were characterized with CYP2B6 and UGT1A1 genotypes that affect efavirenz and INSTI metabolism, respectively. In a clinical trials cohort, we studied weight gain at 48 weeks among treatment-naive participants who were randomized to receive efavirenz-containing regimens in AIDS Clinical Trials Group studies A5095, A5142, and A5202 and did not receive INSTIs. RESULTS: In the observational cohort (n = 61), CYP2B6 slow metabolizers had greater weight gain after switch (P = .01). This was seen following switch to elvitegravir or raltegravir, but not dolutegravir. UGT1A1 genotype was not associated with weight gain. In the clinical trials cohort (n = 462), CYP2B6 slow metabolizers had lesser weight gain at week 48 among participants receiving efavirenz with tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (P = .001), but not those receiving efavirenz with abacavir (P = .65). Findings were consistent when stratified by race/ethnicity and by sex. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients who switched from efavirenz- to INSTI-based therapy, CYP2B6 genotype was associated with weight gain, possibly reflecting withdrawal of the inhibitory effect of higher efavirenz concentrations on weight gain. The difference by concomitant nucleoside analogue is unexplained.

Clinical Effectiveness of Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitor-Based Antiretroviral Regimens Among Adults With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Collaboration of Cohort Studies in the United States and Canada.

BACKGROUND: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimens are now recommended as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for adults with human immunodeficiency virus, but evidence on long-term clinical effectiveness of InSTI-based regimens remains limited. We examined whether InSTI-based regimens improved longer-term clinical outcomes. METHODS: We included participants from clinical cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design who initiated their first ART regimen, containing either InSTI (ie, raltegravir, dolutegravir, and elvitegravir-cobicistat) or efavirenz (EFV) as an active comparator, between 2009 and 2016. We estimated observational analogs of 6-year intention-to-treat and per-protocol risks, risk differences (RDs), and hazard ratios (HRs) for the composite outcome of AIDS, acute myocardial infarction, stroke, end-stage renal disease, end-stage liver disease, or death. RESULTS: Of 15 993 participants, 5824 (36%) initiated an InSTI-based and 10 169 (64%) initiated an EFV-based regimen. During the 6-year follow-up, 440 in the InSTI group and 1097 in the EFV group incurred the composite outcome. The estimated 6-year intention-to-treat risks were 14.6% and 14.3% for the InSTI and EFV groups, respectively, corresponding to a RD of 0.3% (95% confidence interval, -2.7% to 3.3%) and a HR of 1.08 (.97-1.19); the estimated 6-year per-protocol risks were 12.2% for the InSTI group and 11.9% for the EFV group, corresponding to a RD of 0.3% (-3.0% to 3.7%) and a HR of 1.09 (.96-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: InSTI- and EFV-based initial ART regimens had similar 6-year composite clinical outcomes. The risk of adverse clinical outcomes remains substantial even when initiating modern ART.

Risk of Incident Diabetes Mellitus, Weight Gain, and Their Relationships With Integrase Inhibitor-Based Initial Antiretroviral Therapy Among Persons With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States and Canada.

BACKGROUND: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with greater weight gain among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), though metabolic consequences, such as diabetes mellitus (DM), are unclear. We examined the impact of initial cART regimen and weight on incident DM in a large North American HIV cohort (NA-ACCORD). METHODS: cART-naive adults (≥18 years) initiating INSTI-, protease inhibitor (PI)-, or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimens from January 2007 through December 2017 who had weight measured 12 (±6) months after treatment initiation contributed time until clinical DM, virologic failure, cART regimen switch, administrative close, death, or loss to follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident DM by cART class. Mediation analyses, with 12-month weight as mediator, similarly adjusted for all covariates. RESULTS: Among 22 884 eligible individuals, 47% started NNRTI-, 30% PI-, and 23% INSTI-based cART with median follow-up of 3.0, 2.3, and 1.6 years, respectively. Overall, 722 (3%) developed DM. Persons starting INSTIs vs NNRTIs had incident DM risk (HR, 1.17 [95% CI, .92-1.48]), similar to PI vs NNRTI initiators (HR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.07-1.51]). This effect was most pronounced for raltegravir (HR, 1.42 [95% CI, 1.06-1.91]) vs NNRTI initiators. The INSTI-DM association was attenuated (HR, 1.03 [95% CI, .71-1.49] vs NNRTIs) when accounting for 12-month weight. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating first cART regimens with INSTIs or PIs vs NNRTIs may confer greater risk of DM, likely mediated through weight gain.