Evolution during primary HIV infection does not require adaptive immune selection.

Modern HIV research depends crucially on both viral sequencing and population measurements. To directly link mechanistic biological processes and evolutionary dynamics during HIV infection, we developed multiple within-host phylodynamic models of HIV primary infection for comparative validation against viral load and evolutionary dynamics data. The optimal model of primary infection required no positive selection, suggesting that the host adaptive immune system reduces viral load but surprisingly does not drive observed viral evolution. Rather, the fitness (infectivity) of mutant variants is drawn from an exponential distribution in which most variants are slightly less infectious than their parents (nearly neutral evolution). This distribution was not largely different from either in vivo fitness distributions recorded beyond primary infection or in vitro distributions that are observed without adaptive immunity, suggesting the intrinsic viral fitness distribution may drive evolution. Simulated phylogenetic trees also agree with independent data and illuminate how phylogenetic inference must consider viral and immune-cell population dynamics to gain accurate mechanistic insights.

NIAID/SMB Workshop on Multiscale Modeling of Infectious and Immune-Mediated Diseases.

On July 19th, 2023, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases co-organized a workshop with the Society of Mathematical Biology, with the authors of this paper as the organizing committee. The workshop, "Bridging multiscale modeling and practical clinical applications in infectious diseases" sought to create an environment for mathematical modelers, statisticians, and infectious disease researchers and clinicians to exchange ideas and perspectives.

Relationship between CD4 T cell turnover, cellular differentiation and HIV persistence during ART.

The precise role of CD4 T cell turnover in maintaining HIV persistence during antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not yet been well characterized. In resting CD4 T cell subpopulations from 24 HIV-infected ART-suppressed and 6 HIV-uninfected individuals, we directly measured cellular turnover by heavy water labeling, HIV reservoir size by integrated HIV-DNA (intDNA) and cell-associated HIV-RNA (caRNA), and HIV reservoir clonality by proviral integration site sequencing. Compared to HIV-negatives, ART-suppressed individuals had similar fractional replacement rates in all subpopulations, but lower absolute proliferation rates of all subpopulations other than effector memory (TEM) cells, and lower plasma IL-7 levels (p = 0.0004). Median CD4 T cell half-lives decreased with cell differentiation from naïve to TEM cells (3 years to 3 months, p<0.001). TEM had the fastest replacement rates, were most highly enriched for intDNA and caRNA, and contained the most clonal proviral expansion. Clonal proviruses detected in less mature subpopulations were more expanded in TEM, suggesting that they were maintained through cell differentiation. Earlier ART initiation was associated with lower levels of intDNA, caRNA and fractional replacement rates. In conclusion, circulating integrated HIV proviruses appear to be maintained both by slow turnover of immature CD4 subpopulations, and by clonal expansion as well as cell differentiation into effector cells with faster replacement rates.

Optimizing clinical dosing of combination broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prevention.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV's extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.

Comparable kidney transplant outcomes in selected patients with a body mass index ≥ 40: A personalized medicine approach to recipient selection.

INTRODUCTION: Many kidney transplant (KT) centers decline patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥40 kg/m2 . This study's aim was to evaluate KT outcomes according to recipient BMI. METHODS: We performed a single-center, retrospective review of adult KTs comparing BMI ≥40 patients (n = 84, BMI = 42 ± 2 kg/m2 ) to a matched BMI < 40 cohort (n = 84, BMI = 28 ± 5 kg/m2 ). Patients were matched for age, gender, race, diabetes, and donor type. RESULTS: BMI ≥40 patients were on dialysis longer (5.2 ± 3.2 years vs. 4.1 ± 3.5 years, p = .03) and received lower kidney donor profile index (KDPI) kidneys (40 ± 25% vs. 53 ± 26%, p = .003). There were no significant differences in prevalence of delayed graft function, reoperations, readmissions, wound complications, patient survival, or renal function at 1 year. Long-term graft survival was higher for BMI ≥40 patients, including after adjusting for KDPI (BMI ≥40: aHR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.09-2.9). BMI ≥40 patients had similar BMI change in the first year post-transplant (delta BMI: BMI ≥ 40 +.9 ± 3.3 vs. BMI < 40 +1.1 ± 3.2, p = .59). CONCLUSIONS: Overall outcomes after KT were comparable in BMI ≥40 patients compared to a matched cohort with lower BMI with improved long-term graft survival in obese patients. BMI-based exclusion criteria for KT should be reexamined in favor of a more individualized approach.

Single center experience and literature review of kidney transplantation from non-ideal donors with acute kidney injury: Risk and reward.

INTRODUCTION: There is limited experience transplanting kidneys from either expanded criteria donors (ECD) or donation after circulatory death (DCD) deceased donors with terminal acute kidney injury (AKI). METHODS: AKI kidneys were defined by a donor terminal serum creatinine level >2.0 mg/dL whereas non-ideal deceased donor (NIDD) kidneys were defined as AKI/DCD or AKI/ECDs. RESULTS: From February 2007 to March 2023, we transplanted 266 single AKI donor kidneys including 29 from ECDs, 29 from DCDs (n = 58 NIDDs), and 208 from brain-dead standard criteria donors (SCDs). Mean donor age (43.7 NIDD vs. 33.5 years SCD), KDPI (66% NIDD vs. 45% SCD), and recipient age (57 NIDD vs. 51 years SCD) were higher in the NIDD group (all p < .01). Mean waiting times (17.8 NIDD vs. 24.2 months SCD) and dialysis duration (34 NIDD vs. 47 months SCD) were shorter in the NIDD group (p < .05). Delayed graft function (DGF, 48%) and 1-year graft survival (92.7% NIDD vs. 95.9% SCD) was similar in both groups. Five-year patient and kidney graft survival rates were 82.1% versus 89.9% and 82.1% versus 75.2% (both p = NS) in the NIDD versus SCD groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The use of kidneys from AKI donors can be safely liberalized to include selected ECD and DCD donors.

Long-term outcomes of kidney transplantation from deceased donors with terminal acute kidney injury: Single center experience and literature review.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term outcomes of kidney transplantation from deceased donors (DDKTs) with terminal acute kidney injury (AKI) are not well defined. METHODS: Single center retrospective review of DDKTs from 1/31/07-12/31/19. AKI kidneys were defined by a doubling of the donor's admission serum creatinine (SCr) level AND a terminal SCr ≥2.0 mg/dl. RESULTS: A total of 188 AKI DDKTs were performed, including 154 from brain-dead standard criteria donors (SCD). Mean donor age was 36 years and mean Kidney Donor Profile Index was 50%; mean admission and terminal SCr levels were 1.3 and 3.1 mg/dl, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 94 months (median 89 months), overall patient (both 71.3%) and graft survival (54% AKI vs. 57% non-AKI) rates were comparable to concurrent DDKTs from brain-dead non-AKI SCDs (n = 769). Delayed graft function (DGF) was higher in AKI kidney recipients (47% vs. 20% non-AKI DDKTs, p < .0001). DGF was associated with lower graft survival in recipients of both AKI and non-AKI SCD kidneys but the impact was earlier and more pronounced in non-AKI recipients. CONCLUSIONS: Despite having more than twice the incidence of DGF, kidneys from deceased donors with terminal AKI have long-term outcomes comparable to non-AKI SCD kidneys and represent a safe and effective method to expand the donor pool.

Influence of donor and recipient sex on outcomes following simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation in the new millennium: Single-center experience and review of the literature.

INTRODUCTION: The influence of sex on outcomes following simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation (SPKT) in the modern era is uncertain. METHODS: We retrospectively studied 255 patients undergoing SPKT from 11/2001 to 8/2020. Cases were stratified according to donor (D) sex, recipient (R) sex, 4 D/R sex categories, and D/R sex-matched versus mismatched. RESULTS: D-male was associated with slightly higher patient (p = .08) and kidney (p = .002) but not pancreas (p = .23) graft survival rates (GSR) compared to D-female. There were no differences in recipient outcomes other than slightly higher pancreas thrombosis (8% R-female vs. 4.2% R-male, p = .28) and early relaparotomy rates in female recipients (38% R-female vs. 29% R-male, p = .14). When analyzing the 4 D/R sex categories, the two D-male groups had higher kidney GSRs compared to the two D-female groups (p = .01) whereas early relaparotomy and pancreas thrombosis rates were numerically higher in the D-female/R-female group compared to the other three groups. Finally, there were no significant differences in outcomes between sex-matched and sex-mismatched groups although overall survival outcomes were lower with female donors irrespective of recipient sex. CONCLUSIONS: The influence of D/R sex following SPKT is subject to multiple confounding issues but survival rates appear to be higher in D-male/R-male and lower in D-female/R-male categories.

Does dialysis modality or duration influence outcomes in simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplant recipients? Single center experience and review of the literature.

AIM: The influence of dialysis modality and duration on outcomes following simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation (SPKT) remains uncertain. METHODS: We performed a single-center retrospective review in 255 SPKT recipients according to dialysis modality (55 preemptive/no dialysis-ND, 70 peritoneal dialysis-PD, 130 hemodialysis-HD) and duration (55 none, 137 < 2 years, 41 2-4 years, 22 > 4 years). RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 9.4 years (median 9.2 years). Early (3-month) relaparotomy rate (20% ND vs. 36% PD/HD, p = .03) was lower in ND patients. There were no differences in early graft loss, patient survival, overall or death-censored kidney or pancreas graft survival rates (GSR) at 1 or 10 years follow-up. When analyzing dialysis duration, there were no differences in rates of pancreas thrombosis or early pancreas graft loss. Kidney delayed graft function (DGF) was lower in the ND/short dialysis groups combined (1.0%), compared to the intermediate/long dialysis groups combined (9.5%, p = .003). Early relaparotomy rates were higher with longer duration of dialysis (p = .045 between ND and >4 years of dialysis). Patient survival in the long dialysis group was 50% compared to 69.5% in the other three groups combined (p = .09). However, both overall and death-censored kidney and pancreas GSR were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Preemptively transplanted patients had a lower incidence of kidney DGF and relaparotomy whereas patient survival was slightly lower with longer dialysis vintage prior to SPKT. Dialysis modality and duration did not influence either overall or death-censored pancreas or kidney GSR in patients with short waiting times, low KDPI donor organs, and dialysis duration up to 4 years.

A SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate would likely match all currently circulating variants.

The magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the urgency for a safe and effective vaccine. Many vaccine candidates focus on the Spike protein, as it is targeted by neutralizing antibodies and plays a key role in viral entry. Here we investigate the diversity seen in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequences and compare it to the sequence on which most vaccine candidates are based. Using 18,514 sequences, we perform phylogenetic, population genetics, and structural bioinformatics analyses. We find limited diversity across SARS-CoV-2 genomes: Only 11 sites show polymorphisms in >5% of sequences; yet two mutations, including the D614G mutation in Spike, have already become consensus. Because SARS-CoV-2 is being transmitted more rapidly than it evolves, the viral population is becoming more homogeneous, with a median of seven nucleotide substitutions between genomes. There is evidence of purifying selection but little evidence of diversifying selection, with substitution rates comparable across structural versus nonstructural genes. Finally, the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference sequence for the Spike protein, which is the basis for different vaccine candidates, matches optimized vaccine inserts, being identical to an ancestral sequence and one mutation away from the consensus. While the rapid spread of the D614G mutation warrants further study, our results indicate that drift and bottleneck events can explain the minimal diversity found among SARS-CoV-2 sequences. These findings suggest that a single vaccine candidate should be efficacious against currently circulating lineages.

Reliability of Self-Sampling for Accurate Assessment of Respiratory Virus Viral and Immunologic Kinetics.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic demonstrates the need for accurate and convenient approaches to diagnose and therapeutically monitor respiratory viral infections. We demonstrated that self-sampling with mid-nasal foam swabs is well-tolerated and provides quantitative viral output concordant with flocked swabs. Using longitudinal home-based self-sampling, we demonstrate that nasal cytokine levels correlate and cluster according to immune cell of origin. Periods of stable viral loads are followed by rapid elimination, which could be coupled with cytokine expansion and contraction. Nasal foam swab self-sampling at home provides a precise, mechanistic readout of respiratory virus shedding and local immune responses.

Dynamics of HIV DNA reservoir seeding in a cohort of superinfected Kenyan women.

A reservoir of HIV-infected cells that persists despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the source of viral rebound upon ART cessation and the major barrier to a cure. Understanding reservoir seeding dynamics will help identify the best timing for HIV cure strategies. Here we characterize reservoir seeding using longitudinal samples from before and after ART initiation in individuals who sequentially became infected with genetically distinct HIV variants (superinfected). We previously identified cases of superinfection in a cohort of Kenyan women, and the dates of both initial infection and superinfection were determined. Six women, superinfected 0.2-5.2 years after initial infection, were subsequently treated with ART 5.4-18.0 years after initial infection. We performed next-generation sequencing of HIV gag and env RNA from plasma collected during acute infection as well as every ~2 years thereafter until ART initiation, and of HIV DNA from PBMCs collected 0.9-4.8 years after viral suppression on ART. We assessed phylogenetic relationships between HIV DNA reservoir sequences and longitudinal plasma RNA sequences prior to ART, to determine proportions of initial and superinfecting variants in the reservoir. The proportions of initial and superinfection lineage variants present in the HIV DNA reservoir were most similar to the proportions present in HIV RNA immediately prior to ART initiation. Phylogenetic analysis confirmed that the majority of HIV DNA reservoir sequences had the smallest pairwise distance to RNA sequences from timepoints closest to ART initiation. Our data suggest that while reservoir cells are created throughout pre-ART infection, the majority of HIV-infected cells that persist during ART entered the reservoir near the time of ART initiation. We estimate the half-life of pre-ART DNA reservoir sequences to be ~25 months, which is shorter than estimated reservoir decay rates during suppressive ART, implying continual decay and reseeding of the reservoir up to the point of ART initiation.

Molecular dating and viral load growth rates suggested that the eclipse phase lasted about a week in HIV-1 infected adults in East Africa and Thailand.

Most HIV-1 infected individuals do not know their infection dates. Precise infection timing is crucial information for studies that document transmission networks or drug levels at infection. To improve infection timing, we used the prospective RV217 cohort where the window when plasma viremia becomes detectable is narrow: the last negative visit occurred a median of four days before the first detectable HIV-1 viremia with an RNA test, referred below as diagnosis. We sequenced 1,280 HIV-1 genomes from 39 participants at a median of 4, 32 and 170 days post-diagnosis. HIV-1 infections were dated by using sequence-based methods and a viral load regression method. Bayesian coalescent and viral load regression estimated that infections occurred a median of 6 days prior to diagnosis (IQR: 9-3 and 11-4 days prior, respectively). Poisson-Fitter, which analyzes the distribution of hamming distances among sequences, estimated a median of 7 days prior to diagnosis (IQR: 15-4 days) based on sequences sampled 4 days post-diagnosis, but it did not yield plausible results using sequences sampled at 32 days. Fourteen participants reported a high-risk exposure event at a median of 8 days prior to diagnosis (IQR: 12 to 6 days prior). These different methods concurred that HIV-1 infection occurred about a week before detectable viremia, corresponding to 20 days (IQR: 34-15 days) before peak viral load. Together, our methods comparison helps define a framework for future dating studies in early HIV-1 infection.

Referral and Evaluation for Kidney Transplantation Following Implementation of the 2014 National Kidney Allocation System.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The national kidney allocation system (KAS) implemented in December 2014 in the United States redefined the start of waiting time from the time of waitlisting to the time of kidney failure. Waitlisting has declined post-KAS, but it is unknown if this is due to transplant center practices or changes in dialysis facility referral and evaluation. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the 2014 KAS policy change on referral and evaluation for transplantation among a population of incident and prevalent patients with kidney failure. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 37,676 incident (2012-2016) patients in Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina identified within the US Renal Data System at 9 transplant centers and followed through December 2017. A prevalent population of 6,079 patients from the same centers receiving maintenance dialysis in 2012 but not referred for transplantation in 2012. EXPOSURE: KAS era (pre-KAS vs post-KAS). OUTCOME: Referral for transplantation, start of transplant evaluation, and waitlisting. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable time-dependent Cox models for the incident and prevalent population. RESULTS: Among incident patients, KAS was associated with increased referrals (adjusted HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.12-1.20]) and evaluation starts among those referred (adjusted HR, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.10-1.21]), decreased overall waitlisting (adjusted HR, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.65-0.76]), and lower rates of active waitlisting among those evaluated compared to the pre-KAS era (adjusted HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.74-0.90]). Among the prevalent population, KAS was associated with increases in overall waitlisting (adjusted HR, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.15-2.63]) and active waitlisting among those evaluated (adjusted HR, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.16-3.49]), but had no significant impact on referral or evaluation starts among those referred. LIMITATIONS: Limited to 3 states, residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: In the southeastern United States, the impact of KAS on steps to transplantation was different among incident and prevalent patients with kidney failure. Dialysis facilities referred more incident patients and transplant centers evaluated more incident patients after implementation of KAS, but fewer evaluated patients were placed onto the waitlist. Changes in dialysis facility and transplant center behaviors after KAS implementation may have influenced the observed changes in access to transplantation.

Does prolonged cold ischemia affect outcomes in donation after cardiac death donor kidney transplants?

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to analyze the combined effect of cold ischemia time (CIT) and donation after cardiac death (DCD, with requisite warm ischemia time, WIT) on kidney transplant (KT) outcomes. METHODS: Single center retrospective review of DCD KT recipients stratified by CIT. RESULTS: From 6/08 to 10/20, we performed 446 DCD KTs (115 CIT ≤20, 205 CIT 20-30, 88 CIT 30-40, 38 CIT ≥40 h). Mean WITs (26/25/27/23 min) and KDPI values (59%/55%/55%/59%) were similar while mean CITs (16.4/23.6/33.4/42.5 h) and pump times (10.3/13.6/16.1/20.4 h) differed across groups (P < .05). With a mean 6-year follow-up, patient survival (84%/84%/74%/84%) was similar. Kidney graft survival (GS) (72%/72%/56%/58%) and death censored GS (DCGS) (82%/80%/63%/67%) rates decreased whereas rates of primary nonfunction (PNF, .9%/2.4%/9.1%/7.9%) and delayed graft function (DGF) (36%/48%/50%/69%) increased with longer CIT (≥30 h, P < .05). Meaningful years free of dialysis, which we refer to as Allograft Life Years, were achieved in all cohorts (4.5/4.3/3.9/4.3 years per patient transplanted). CONCLUSION: DCD donor kidneys with prolonged CIT (≥30 h) are associated with increased rates of DGF and PNF, along with decreased GS and DCGS. Despite this, Allograft Life Years were gained even with longer CITs, demonstrating the utility of using these allografts.

Do pretransplant C-peptide levels predict outcomes following simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation? A matched case-control study.

Following simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation (SPKT), survival outcomes are reported as equivalent in patients with detectable pretransplant C-peptide levels (Cp+) and a "type 2″ diabetes mellitus (DM) phenotype compared to type 1 (Cp negative [Cp-]) DM. We retrospectively compared 46 Cp+ patients pretransplant (≥2.0 ng/mL, mean 5.4 ng/mL) to 46 Cp- (level < 0.5 ng/mL) case controls matched for recipient age, gender, race, and transplant date. Early outcomes were comparable. Actual 5-year patient survival (91% versus 94%), kidney graft survival (69% versus 86%, p = .15), and pancreas graft survival (60% versus 86%, p = .03) rates were lower in Cp+ versus Cp- patients, respectively. The Cp+ group had more pancreas graft failures due to insulin resistance (13% Cp+ versus 0% Cp-, p = .026) or rejection (17% Cp+ versus 6.5% Cp-, p = .2). Post-transplant weight gain > 5 kg occurred in 72% of Cp+ versus 26% of Cp- patients (p = .0001). In patients with functioning grafts, mean one-year post-transplant HbA1c levels (5.0 Cp+ versus 5.2% Cp-) were comparable, whereas Cp levels were higher in Cp+ patients (5.0 Cp+ versus 2.6 ng/mL Cp-). In this matched case-control study, outcomes were inferior in Cp+ compared to Cp- patients following SPKT, with post-transplant weight gain, insulin resistance, and rejection as potential mitigating factors.

Simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation in Caucasian versus African American patients: Does recipient race influence outcomes?

The influence of African American (AA) recipient race on outcomes following simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation (SPKT) is uncertain. METHODS: From 11/01 to 2/19, we retrospectively studied 158 Caucasian (C) and 57 AA patients (pts) undergoing SPKT. RESULTS: The AA group had fewer patients on peritoneal dialysis (30% C vs. 14% AA), more patients with longer dialysis duration (28% C vs. 51% AA), more sensitized (PRA ≥20%) patients (6% C vs. 21% AA), and more patients with pretransplant C-peptide levels ≥2.0 ng/ml (11% C vs. 35% AA, all P < .05). With a mean 9.2 year follow-up, patient survival (65% C vs. 77% AA, P = .098) slightly favored the AA group, whereas kidney (55% C vs. 60% AA) and pancreas (48% C vs. 54% AA) graft survival rates (GSRs) were comparable. Death-censored kidney (71% C vs. 68% AA) and pancreas (both 62%) GSRs demonstrated that death with a functioning graft (DWFG) was more common in C vs. AA patients (23% C vs. 12% AA, P = .10). The incidence of death-censored dual graft loss (usually rejection) was 7% C versus 21% AA (P = .005). CONCLUSIONS: Following SPKT, AA patients are at a greater risk for dual immunological graft loss whereas C patients are at greater risk for DWFG.

Employment status at transplant influences ethnic disparities in outcomes after deceased donor kidney transplantation.

BACKGROUND: African American (AA) recipients of deceased-donor (DD) kidney transplants (KT) have shorter allograft survival than recipients of other ethnic groups. Reasons for this disparity encompass complex interactions between donors and recipients characteristics. METHODS: Outcomes from 3872 AA and 19,719 European American (EA) DDs who had one kidney transplanted in an AA recipient and one in an EA recipient were analyzed. Four donor/recipient pair groups (DRP) were studied, AA/AA, AA/EA, EA/AA, and EA/EA. Survival random forests and Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to rank and evaluate modifying effects of DRP on variables associated with allograft survival. These analyses sought to identify factors contributing to the observed disparities in transplant outcomes among AA and EA DDKT recipients. RESULTS: Transplant era, discharge serum creatinine, delayed graft function, and DRP were among the top predictors of allograft survival and mortality among DDKT recipients. Interaction effects between DRP with the kidney donor risk index and transplant era showed significant improvement in allograft survival over time in EA recipients. However, AA recipients appeared to have similar or poorer outcomes for DDKT performed after 2010 versus before 2001; allograft survival hazard ratios (95% CI) were 1.15 (0.74, 1.76) and 1.07 (0.8, 1.45) for AA/AA and EA/AA, compared to 0.62 (0.54, 0.71) and 0.5 (0.41, 0.62) for EA/EA and AA/EA DRP, respectively. Recipient mortality improved over time among all DRP, except unemployed AA/AAs. Relative to DDKT performed pre-2001, employed AA/AAs had HR = 0.37 (0.2, 0.69) versus 0.59 (0.31, 1.11) for unemployed AA/AA after 2010. CONCLUSION: Relative to DDKT performed before 2001, similar or worse overall DCAS was observed among AA/AAs, while EA/EAs experienced considerable improvement regardless of employment status, KDRI, and EPTS. AA recipients of an AA DDKT, especially if unemployed, had worse allograft survival and mortality and did not appear to benefit from advances in care over the past 20 years.

Distinguishing Nanoparticle Aggregation from Viscosity Changes in MPS/MSB Detection of Biomarkers.

Magnetic particle spectroscopy (MPS) in the Brownian relaxation regime, also termed magnetic spectroscopy of Brownian motion (MSB), can detect and quantitate very low, sub-nanomolar concentrations of molecular biomarkers. MPS/MSB uses the harmonics of the magnetization induced by a small, low-frequency oscillating magnetic field to provide quantitative information about the magnetic nanoparticles' (mNPs') microenvironment. A key application uses antibody-coated mNPs to produce biomarker-mediated aggregation that can be detected using MPS/MSB. However, relaxation changes can also be caused by viscosity changes. To address this challenge, we propose a metric that can distinguish between aggregation and viscosity. Viscosity changes scale the MPS/MSB harmonic ratios with a constant multiplier across all applied field frequencies. The change in viscosity is exactly equal to the multiplier with generality, avoiding the need to understand the signal explicitly. This simple scaling relationship is violated when particles aggregate. Instead, a separate multiplier must be used for each frequency. The standard deviation of the multipliers over frequency defines a metric isolating viscosity (zero standard deviation) from aggregation (non-zero standard deviation). It increases monotonically with biomarker concentration. We modeled aggregation and simulated the MPS/MSB signal changes resulting from aggregation and viscosity changes. MPS/MSB signal changes were also measured experimentally using 100 nm iron-oxide mNPs in solutions with different viscosities (modulated by glycerol concentration) and with different levels of aggregation (modulated by concanavalin A linker concentrations). Experimental and simulation results confirmed that viscosity changes produced small changes in the standard deviation and aggregation produced larger values of standard deviation. This work overcomes a key barrier to using MPS/MSB to detect biomarkers in vivo with variable tissue viscosity.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials.

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 µg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.