Desirability of outcome ranking for obstetrical trials: illustration and application to the ARRIVE trial.

BACKGROUND: In randomized trials, 1 primary outcome is typically chosen to evaluate the consequences of an intervention, whereas other important outcomes are relegated to secondary outcomes. This issue is amplified for many obstetrical trials in which an intervention may have consequences for both the pregnant person and the child. In contrast, desirability of outcome ranking, a paradigm shift for the design and analysis of clinical trials based on patient-centric evaluation, allows multiple outcomes-including from >1 individual-to be considered concurrently. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe desirability of outcome ranking methodology tailored to obstetrical trials and to apply the methodology to maternal-perinatal paired (dyadic) outcomes in which both individuals may be affected by an intervention but may experience discordant outcomes (eg, an obstetrical intervention may improve perinatal but worsen maternal outcomes). STUDY DESIGN: This secondary analysis applies the desirability of outcome ranking methodology to data from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network ARRIVE trial. The original analysis found no substantial difference in the primary (perinatal composite) outcome, but a decreased risk of the secondary outcome of cesarean delivery with elective induction at 39 weeks. In the present desirability-of-outcome-ranking analysis, dyadic outcomes ranging from spontaneous vaginal delivery without severe neonatal complication (most desirable) to cesarean delivery with perinatal death (least desirable) were classified into 8 categories ranked by overall desirability by experienced investigators. Distributions of the desirability of outcome ranking were compared by estimating the probability of having a more desirable dyadic outcome with elective induction at 39 weeks of gestation than with expectant management. To account for various perspectives on these outcomes, a complementary analysis, called the partial credit strategy, was used to grade outcomes on a 100-point scale and estimate the difference in overall treatment scores between groups using a t test. RESULTS: All 6096 participants from the trial were included. The probability of a better dyadic outcome for a randomly selected patient who was randomized to elective induction was 53% (95% confidence interval, 51-54), implying that elective induction led to a better overall outcome for the dyad when taking multiple outcomes into account concurrently. Furthermore, the desirability-of-outcome-ranking probability of averting cesarean delivery with elective induction was 52% (95% confidence interval, 51-53), which was not at the expense of an operative vaginal delivery or a poorer outcome for the perinate (ie, survival with a severe neonatal complication or perinatal death). Randomization to elective induction was also advantageous in most of the partial credit score scenarios. CONCLUSION: Desirability-of-outcome-ranking methodology is a useful tool for obstetrical trials because it provides a concurrent view of the effect of an intervention on multiple dyadic outcomes, potentially allowing for better translation of data for decision-making and person-centered care.

Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes in Nulliparous Participants Undergoing Labor Induction by Cervical Ripening Method.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate maternal and neonatal outcomes by method of cervical ripening for labor induction among low-risk nulliparous individuals. STUDY DESIGN: This is a secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial of labor induction at 39 weeks versus expectant management in low-risk nulliparous participants. Participants undergoing cervical ripening for labor induction in either group were included. Participants were excluded for preripening membrane rupture, abruption, chorioamnionitis, fetal demise, or cervical dilation ≥3.5 cm. Cervical ripening was defined by the initial method used: prostaglandin only (PGE; referent), Foley with concurrent prostaglandin (Foley-PGE), Foley only (Foley), and Foley with concurrent oxytocin (Foley-oxytocin). Coprimary outcomes were adverse maternal and neonatal composites. Secondary outcomes included cesarean delivery and length of labor and delivery (L&D) stay. Multivariable analysis was used to adjust for patient characteristics. RESULTS: Of 6,106 participants included in the trial, 2,376 (38.9%) met criteria for this analysis. Of these, 1,247 (52.4%) had cervical ripening with PGE, 290 (12.2%) had Foley-PGE, 385 (16.2%) had Foley, and 454 (19.1%) had Foley-oxytocin. The maternal composite outcome was similar among participants who received Foley-PGE (24.1%, adjusted relative risk [aRR] = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-1.52), Foley (21.3%, aRR = 1.16, 95% CI: 0.92-1.45), or Foley-oxytocin (19.4%, aRR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.83-1.29), compared with PGE (19.7%). The neonatal composite outcome was less frequent in participants who received the Foley-PGE (2.4%, aRR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.16-0.75) or Foley (3.6%, aRR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.29-0.89) but did not reach statistical significance for participants who received Foley-oxytocin (4.6%, aRR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.40-1.01) compared with PGE only (6.8%). Participants who received Foley-PGE or Foley-oxytocin had a shorter L&D stay (adjusted mean difference = -1.97 hours, 95% CI: -3.45 to -0.49 and -5.92 hours, 95% CI: -7.07 to -4.77, respectively), compared with PGE. CONCLUSION: In term low-risk nulliparous participants, Foley alone or concurrent with PGE is associated with a lower risk of adverse neonatal outcomes than with PGE alone. Length of L&D stay was the shortest with concurrent Foley-oxytocin. KEY POINTS: · Adverse maternal outcomes are similar among different methods of cervical ripening in low-risk women.. · Adverse neonatal outcomes are less frequent with use of Foley alone or in combination with PGE.. · The use of Foley alone, or in combination with other agents, appears to be beneficial..

Labor Induction versus Expectant Management in Low-Risk Nulliparous Women.

BACKGROUND: The perinatal and maternal consequences of induction of labor at 39 weeks among low-risk nulliparous women are uncertain. METHODS: In this multicenter trial, we randomly assigned low-risk nulliparous women who were at 38 weeks 0 days to 38 weeks 6 days of gestation to labor induction at 39 weeks 0 days to 39 weeks 4 days or to expectant management. The primary outcome was a composite of perinatal death or severe neonatal complications; the principal secondary outcome was cesarean delivery. RESULTS: A total of 3062 women were assigned to labor induction, and 3044 were assigned to expectant management. The primary outcome occurred in 4.3% of neonates in the induction group and in 5.4% in the expectant-management group (relative risk, 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 1.00). The frequency of cesarean delivery was significantly lower in the induction group than in the expectant-management group (18.6% vs. 22.2%; relative risk, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Induction of labor at 39 weeks in low-risk nulliparous women did not result in a significantly lower frequency of a composite adverse perinatal outcome, but it did result in a significantly lower frequency of cesarean delivery. (Funded by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; ARRIVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01990612 .).

Brief report: ultraviolet radiation exposure is associated with clinical and autoantibody phenotypes in juvenile myositis.

OBJECTIVE: Genetic and environmental factors may contribute to the etiology of the juvenile idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs), which are systemic autoimmune diseases that are characterized by muscle and skin inflammation. We undertook this study to investigate the association between ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure and the clinical and autoantibody expression of juvenile IIM. METHODS: The relationship between UVR exposure in the month before symptom onset and the prevalence of juvenile dermatomyositis (DM), compared to juvenile polymyositis (PM), was assessed in 298 juvenile IIM patients. Among the patients with juvenile DM, the association between UVR exposure and presence of myositis autoantibodies was assessed. Regression models were stratified by sex and race. The association between the regional UV index in US geoclimatic zones and the clinical and autoantibody subgroups was examined by weighted least squares regression analysis. RESULTS: Among girls in this population, the odds of having juvenile DM, compared to juvenile PM, increased per unit increase in the patients' highest UV index in the month before symptom onset (odds ratio [OR] 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.40). Moreover, both the mean and highest UV indices were associated with increasing odds of having anti-p155/140 autoantibodies, with the strongest odds in white males (ORs of 1.30 and 1.23, respectively). No association was observed between the UV index and presence of anti-MJ autoantibodies or lack of any myositis autoantibodies. Across all 9 US geoclimatic regions, the mean UV index was associated with increasing odds of having juvenile DM and anti-p155/140 autoantibodies, but decreasing odds of having anti-MJ autoantibodies. CONCLUSION: Short-term UVR exposure prior to illness onset may have a role in the clinical and serologic expression of juvenile myositis. Further research examining the mechanisms of action of UVR in the pathogenesis of juvenile IIM is suggested from these findings.

Application of desirability of outcome ranking to the milking in non-vigorous infants trial.

OBJECTIVES: Neonatal trials have traditionally used binary composite short-term (such as death or bronchopulmonary dysplasia) or longer-term (such as death or severe neurodevelopmental impairment) outcomes. We applied the Desirability Of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) method to rank the overall patient outcome by best (no morbidities) to worst (death). STUDY DESIGN: Using a completed large multicenter trial (Milking In Non-Vigorous Infants [MINVI]) of umbilical cord milking (UCM) vs. early cord clamping (ECC), we applied the DOOR methodology to neonatal outcomes. Six outcomes were chosen and ranked: no interventions or NICU admission (most desirable); received initial cardiorespiratory support at birth; neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission for predefined criteria; mild hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE); moderate to severe HIE; and death (least desirable). RESULTS: 1524 non-vigorous newborns born between 35 and 42 weeks' gestation had data for analysis. The DOOR distribution was different between the UCM and ECC arms, with a significantly greater probability (55.8 % [95 % CI 53.1-58.5 %; p < 0.0001]) of a randomly selected neonate having a more desirable outcome if they were in the UCM arm. DOOR probabilities of averting individual adverse outcomes such as NICU admission for predefined criteria (52.8 %; 95%CI 50.5-55.1 %) and cardiorespiratory support (54.0 %; 95%CI 51.6-56.4 %) were significantly higher among those in the UCM group. CONCLUSION: DOOR provides an overall assessment of the benefits and harms with greater insight than typical binary composite measures to clinicians and parents when evaluating an intervention. Future neonatal trials should consider the a priori use of the DOOR methodology to evaluate trial outcomes.

Correction: Predicting peripartum blood transfusion in women undergoing cesarean delivery: A risk prediction model.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0208417.].

Predicting peripartum blood transfusion in women undergoing cesarean delivery: A risk prediction model.

OBJECTIVE: There has been an appreciable rise in postpartum hemorrhage requiring blood transfusions in the United States. Our objective is to better define patients at greatest risk for peripartum transfusion at the time of cesarean in order to identify cases for early intervention and monitoring. METHODS: Our study is a secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort study. Cases of intraoperative and immediate postpartum blood transfusion among women undergoing cesarean delivery were identified. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify antepartum and intrapartum risk factors that were independently associated with blood transfusion. A risk calculator was then developed to predict the need for transfusion. RESULTS: Of 56,967 women, 1488 (2.6%) required any blood transfusion. The strongest risk factors for peripartum blood transfusion included anemia (odds ratio [OR] 3.7, 95% CI 3.3-4.3), abruption on presentation (OR 3.3, CI 2.6-4.1), general anesthesia (OR 5.2, CI 4.4-6.1) and abnormal placentation (OR 92.0, CI 57.4-147.6). An antepartum (model 1) and combined antepartum plus intrapartum risk model (model 2) were developed (model 1 AUC = 0.77, model 2 AUC = 0.83) and internally validated. CONCLUSIONS: Among women who required cesarean delivery, we were able to identify risk factors which predispose women to peripartum blood transfusion and developed a prediction model with good discrimination.

Renal function and effectiveness of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy in patients with chronic stable coronary disease in the Prevention of Events with ACE inhibition (PEACE) trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with reduced renal function are at increased risk for adverse cardiovascular outcomes. In the post-myocardial infarction setting, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors have been shown to be as effective in patients with impaired renal function as in those with preserved renal function. METHODS AND RESULTS: We assessed the relation between renal function and outcomes, the influence of ACE inhibition on this relation, and whether renal function modifies the effectiveness of ACE inhibition in patients with stable coronary artery disease and preserved systolic function enrolled in the Prevention of Events with ACE inhibition trial (PEACE). Patients (n=8290) were randomly assigned to receive trandolapril (target, 4 mg/d) or placebo. Clinical creatinine measures were available for 8280 patients before randomization. The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated with the 4-point Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation. Renal function was related to outcomes, and the influence of ACE-inhibitor therapy was assessed with formal interaction modeling. The mean eGFR in PEACE was 77.6+/-19.4, and 1355 (16.3%) patients had reduced renal function (eGFR <60 mg.mL(-1).1.73 m(-2)). We observed a significant interaction between eGFR and treatment group with respect to cardiovascular and all-cause mortality (P=0.02). Trandolapril was associated with a reduction in total mortality in patients with reduced renal function (adjusted HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54 to 1.00) but not in patients with preserved renal function (adjusted HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.13). CONCLUSIONS: Although trandolapril did not improve survival in the overall PEACE cohort, in which mean eGFR was relatively high, trandolapril reduced mortality in patients with reduced eGFR. These data suggest that reduced renal function may define a subset of patients most likely to benefit from ACE-inhibitor therapy for cardiovascular protection.

Angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibition in stable coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors are effective in reducing the risk of heart failure, myocardial infarction, and death from cardiovascular causes in patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction or heart failure. ACE inhibitors have also been shown to reduce atherosclerotic complications in patients who have vascular disease without heart failure. METHODS: In the Prevention of Events with Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibition (PEACE) Trial, we tested the hypothesis that patients with stable coronary artery disease and normal or slightly reduced left ventricular function derive therapeutic benefit from the addition of ACE inhibitors to modern conventional therapy. The trial was a double-blind, placebo-controlled study in which 8290 patients were randomly assigned to receive either trandolapril at a target dose of 4 mg per day (4158 patients) or matching placebo (4132 patients). RESULTS: The mean (+/-SD) age of the patients was 64+/-8 years, the mean blood pressure 133+/-17/78+/-10 mm Hg, and the mean left ventricular ejection fraction 58+/-9 percent. The patients received intensive treatment, with 72 percent having previously undergone coronary revascularization and 70 percent receiving lipid-lowering drugs. The incidence of the primary end point--death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization--was 21.9 percent in the trandolapril group, as compared with 22.5 percent in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the trandolapril group, 0.96; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.88 to 1.06; P=0.43) over a median follow-up period of 4.8 years. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable coronary heart disease and preserved left ventricular function who are receiving "current standard" therapy and in whom the rate of cardiovascular events is lower than in previous trials of ACE inhibitors in patients with vascular disease, there is no evidence that the addition of an ACE inhibitor provides further benefit in terms of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization.

Long-term trandolapril treatment is associated with reduced aortic stiffness: the prevention of events with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition hemodynamic substudy.

The Prevention of Events with Angiotensin Converting Enzyme inhibition (PEACE) trial evaluated angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition with trandolapril versus placebo added to conventional therapy in patients with stable coronary disease and preserved left ventricular function. The PEACE hemodynamic substudy evaluated effects of trandolapril on pulsatile hemodynamics. Hemodynamic studies were performed in 300 participants from 5 PEACE centers a median of 52 months (range, 25 to 80 months) after random assignment to trandolapril at a target dose of 4 mg per day or placebo. Central pulsatile hemodynamics and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity were assessed by using echocardiography, tonometry of the carotid and femoral arteries, and body surface transit distances. Patients randomly assigned to trandolapril tended to be older (mean+/-SD: 64.2+/-7.9 versus 62.9+/-7.7 years; P=0.14), with a higher body mass index (28.5+/-4.0 versus 27.8+/-3.9 kg/m(2); P=0.09) and lower ejection fraction (57.1+/-8.1% versus 58.7+/-8.4%; P<0.01). At the time of the hemodynamic substudy, the trandolapril group had lower mean arterial pressure (93.1+/-10.2 versus 96.3+/-11.3 mm Hg; P<0.01) and lower carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (geometric mean [95% CI]: 10.4 m/s [10.0 to 10.9 m/s] versus 11.2 m/s [10.7 to 11.8 m/s]; P=0.02). The difference in carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity persisted (P<0.01) in an analysis that adjusted for baseline characteristics and follow-up mean pressure. In contrast, there was no difference in aortic compliance, characteristic impedance, augmentation index, or total arterial compliance. Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibition with trandolapril produced a modest reduction in carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, a measure of aortic wall stiffness, beyond what would be expected from blood pressure lowering or differences in baseline characteristics alone.

Is conception delay a risk factor for reduced gestation or birthweight?

Previous studies have suggested an association between delays in conception and adverse perinatal outcomes, specifically, low birthweight and preterm birth. We investigated the relationship between conception delay (defined as >6 months to become pregnant) and three perinatal outcomes: low birthweight (LBW; <2500 g), preterm birth (PTB; <37 weeks), and small-for-gestational-age (SGA; <10th percentile weight for given gestational age) using data from the Collaborative Perinatal Project. The study cohort was limited to pregnancies with a known time-to-pregnancy (n = 8465; 15%). Generalised estimating equations were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals [CI] for risk of adverse perinatal outcomes accounting for the clustering of pregnancy outcomes for women with more than one pregnancy. After adjusting for confounders, all ORs were close to the null (LBW, OR = 1.01; 95% CI = 0.86, 1.20), (PTB, OR = 1.10; 95% CI = 0.95, 1.27), (SGA, OR = 1.06; 95% CI = 0.91, 1.25). Thus, we found no evidence to support an adverse relationship between conception delay and decrements in gestation or birthweight among this select sample of fertile women, even after varying the cut-point for defining conception delay.