The Improved Kidney Risk Score in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis for Clinical Practice and Trials.

SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. More than 1500 patients were collated in an international longitudinal study to revise the ANCA kidney risk score. The score showed satisfactory performance, mimicking the original study (Harrell's C=0.779). In the development cohort of 959 patients, no additional parameters aiding the tool were detected, but replacing the GFR with creatinine identified an additional cutoff. The parameter interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy was modified to allow wider access, risk points were reweighted, and a fourth risk group was created, improving predictive ability (C=0.831). In the validation, the new model performed similarly well with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). The revised score optimizes prognostication for clinical practice and trials. BACKGROUND: Reliable prediction tools are needed to personalize treatment in ANCA-associated GN. A retrospective international longitudinal cohort was collated to revise the ANCA renal risk score. METHODS: The primary end point was ESKD with patients censored at last follow-up. Cox proportional hazards were used to reweight risk factors. Kaplan-Meier curves, Harrell's C statistic, receiver operating characteristics, and calibration plots were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: Of 1591 patients, 1439 were included in the final analyses, 2:1 randomly allocated per center to development and validation cohorts (52% male, median age 64 years). In the development cohort ( n =959), the ANCA renal risk score was validated and calibrated, and parameters were reinvestigated modifying interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy allowing semiquantitative reporting. An additional cutoff for kidney function (K) was identified, and serum creatinine replaced GFR (K0: <250 µ mol/L=0, K1: 250-450 µ mol/L=4, K2: >450 µ mol/L=11 points). The risk points for the percentage of normal glomeruli (N) and interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (T) were reweighted (N0: >25%=0, N1: 10%-25%=4, N2: <10%=7, T0: none/mild or <25%=0, T1: ≥ mild-moderate or ≥25%=3 points), and four risk groups created: low (0-4 points), moderate (5-11), high (12-18), and very high (21). Discrimination was C=0.831, and the 3-year kidney survival was 96%, 79%, 54%, and 19%, respectively. The revised score performed similarly well in the validation cohort with excellent calibration and discrimination ( n =480, C=0.821). CONCLUSIONS: The updated score optimizes clinicopathologic prognostication for clinical practice and trials.

A simulation study of extrapolation uncertainty in exposure assessment - Use of pilot study results for site investigation.

Accurate characterization of soil contaminant concentrations is often crucial for assessing risks to human and ecological health. However, fine-scale assessments of large tracts of land can be cost prohibitive due to the number of samples needed. One solution to this problem is to extrapolate sampling results from one area to another unsampled area. In the absence of a validated extrapolation methodology, regulatory agencies have employed policy-based techniques for large sites, but the likelihood of decision errors resulting from these extrapolations is largely unexplored. This study describes the results of a simulation study aimed at guiding environmental sampling for sites where extrapolation concepts are of interest. The objective of this study is to provide practical recommendations to regulatory agencies for extrapolating sampling results on large tracts of land while minimizing errors that are detrimental to human health. A variety of site investigation scenarios representative of environmental conditions and sampling schemes were tested using adaptive sampling when collecting discrete samples or applying incremental sampling methodology (ISM). These simulations address extrapolation uncertainty in cases where a Pilot Study might result in either false noncompliance or false compliance conclusions. A wide range of plausible scenarios were used that reflect the variety of heterogeneity seen at large sites. This simulation study demonstrates that ISM can be reliably applied in a Pilot Study for purposes of extrapolating the outcome to a large area site because it decreases the likelihood of false non-compliance errors while also providing reliable estimates of true compliance across unsampled areas. The results demonstrate how errors depend on the magnitude of the 95% upper confidence limit for the mean concentration (95UCL) relative to the applicable action level, and that error rates are highest when the 95UCL is within 10%-40% of the action level. The false compliance rate can be reduced to less than 5% when 30% or more of the site is characterized with ISM. False compliance error rates using ISM are insensitive to the fraction of the decision units (DUs) that are characterized with three replicates (with a minimum of 10 percent), so long as 95UCLs are calculated for the DUs with one replicate using the average coefficient of variation from the three replicate DUs.

Immunotherapy with anti-GD2 monoclonal antibody in infants with high-risk neuroblastoma.

Anti-GD2 monoclonal antibodies (mAb) improve the prognosis of high-risk neuroblastoma (HR-NB). Worldwide experience almost exclusively involves toddlers and older patients treated after multimodality or second-line therapies, that is, many months postdiagnosis. In contrast, at our center, infants received anti-GD2 mAbs because this immunotherapy started during or immediately after induction chemotherapy. We now report on the feasibility, safety, and long-term survival in this vulnerable age group. Thirty-three HR-NB patients were <19 months old when started on 3F8 (murine mAb; n = 21) or naxitamab (humanized-3F8; n = 12), with 30″ to 90″ intravenous infusions. Patients received analgesics and antihistamines. Common toxicities (pain, urticaria, cough) were manageable, allowing outpatient treatment. Capillary leak, posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome, and mAb-related long-term toxicities did not occur. Two 3F8 cycles were aborted due to bradycardia (a preexisting condition) and asthmatic symptoms, respectively. One patient received ½ dose of Day 1 naxitamab because of hypotension; full doses were subsequently administered. Post-mAb treatments included chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and anti-NB vaccine. Among 3F8 patients, 17/21 are in complete remission off all treatment at 5.6+ to 24.1+ (median 13.4+) years from diagnosis. Among naxitamab patients, 10/12 remain relapse-free post-mAb at 1.7+ to 4.3+ (median 3.1+) years from diagnosis. Toxicity was similar with short outpatient infusions and matched that observed with these and other anti-GD2 mAbs in older patients. These findings were reassuring given that naxitamab is dosed >2.5× higher (~270 mg/m2 /cycle) than 3F8, dinutuximab, and dinutuximab beta (70-100 mg/m2 /cycle). HR-NB in infants proved to be highly curable.

Stage 4N neuroblastoma before and during the era of anti-GD2 immunotherapy.

Patients with stage 4N neuroblastoma (distant metastases limited to lymph nodes) stand out as virtually the only survivors of high-risk neuroblastoma (HR-NB) before myeloablative therapy (MAT) and immunotherapy with anti-GD2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) became standard. Because no report presents more recent results with 4N, we analyzed our large 4N experience. All 51 pediatric 4N patients (<18 years old) diagnosed 1985 to 2021 were reviewed. HR-NB included MYCN-nonamplified 4N diagnosed at age ≥18 months and MYCN-amplified 4N. Among 34 MYCN-nonamplified high-risk patients, 20 are relapse-free 1.5+ to 37.5+ (median 12.5+) years post-diagnosis, including 13 without prior MAT and 5 treated with little (1 cycle; n = 2) or no mAb (n = 3), while 14 patients (7 post-MAT, 8 post-mAbs) relapsed (all soft tissue). Of 15 MYCN-amplified 4N patients, 7 are relapse-free 2.1+ to 26.4+ (median 11.6+) years from the start of chemotherapy (all received mAbs; 3 underwent MAT) and 4 are in second remission 4.2+ to 21.8+ years postrelapse (all soft tissue). Statistical analyses showed no significant association of survival with either MAT or mAbs for MYCN-nonamplified HR-NB; small numbers prevented these analyses for MYCN-amplified patients. The two patients with intermediate-risk 4N (14-months-old) are relapse-free 7+ years postresection of primary tumors; distant disease spontaneously regressed. The natural history of 4N is marked by NB confined to soft tissue without early relapse in bones or bone marrow, where mAbs have proven efficacy. These findings plus curability without MAT, as seen elsewhere and at our center, support consideration of treatment reduction for MYCN-nonamplified 4N.

Growth of twins conceived using assisted reproductive treatments up to 5 years old: a national growth cohort.

STUDY QUESTION: Do twins conceived through assisted reproductive treatments (ART) grow differently from naturally conceived (NC) twins in early life? SUMMARY ANSWER: Assessments at 6-8 weeks old and at school entry show that ART twins conceived from frozen embryo transfer (FET) grow faster than both NC twins and ART twins conceived from fresh embryo transfer (ET). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Singletons born from fresh ET grow more slowly in utero and in the first few weeks of life but then show postnatal catch-up growth by school age, compared to NC and FET babies. Evidence on early child growth of ART twins relative to NC twins is inconsistent; most studies are small and do not distinguish FET from fresh ET cycles. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This cohort study included 13 528 live-born twin babies conceived by ART (fresh ET: 2792, FET: 556) and NC (10 180) between 1991 and 2009 in Scotland. The data were obtained by linking Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority ART register data to the Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR02) and Scottish child health programme datasets. Outcome data were collected at birth, 6-8 weeks (first assessment), and school entry (4-7 years old) assessments. The primary outcome was growth, measured by weight at the three assessment points. Secondary outcomes were length (at birth and 6-8 weeks) or height (at school entry), BMI, occipital circumference, gestational age at birth, newborn intensive care unit admission, and growth rates (between birth and 6-8 weeks and between 6-8 weeks and school entry). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: All twins in the linked dataset (born between 1991 and 2009) with growth data were included in the analysis. To determine outcome differences between fresh ET, FET, and NC twins, linear mixed models (or analogous logistic regression models) were used to explore the outcomes of interest. All models were adjusted for available confounders: gestational age/child age, gender, maternal age and smoking, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, year of treatment, parity, ICSI, and ET stage. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: In the primary birth weight models, the average birth weight of fresh ET twins was lower [-35 g; 95% CI: (-53, -16)g] than NC controls, while FET twins were heavier [71 g; 95% CI (33, 110) g] than NC controls and heavier [106 g; 95% CI (65, 146) g] than fresh ET twins. However, the difference between FET and NC twins was not significant when considering only full-term twins (≥37 weeks gestation) [26 g; 95% CI (-30, 82) g], while it was significantly higher in preterm twins [126 g; 95% CI (73, 179) g]. Growth rates did not differ significantly for the three groups from birth to 6-8 weeks. However, FET twins grew significantly faster from 6 to 8 weeks than NC (by 2.2 g/week) and fresh ET twins (by 2.1 g/week). By school entry, FET twins were 614 g [95% CI (158, 1070) g] and 581 g [95% CI (100, 1063) g] heavier than NC and fresh ET twins, respectively. Length/height and occipital frontal circumference did not differ significantly at any time point. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Although the differences between ART and NC reflect the true ART effects, these effects are likely to be mediated partly through the different prevalence of mono/dizygotic twins in the two groups. We could not explore the mediating effect of zygosity due to the unavailability of data. The confounding variables included in the study were limited to those available in the datasets. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Live-born twins from FET cycles are heavier at birth, grow faster than their fresh ET and NC counterparts, and are still heavier at school entry. This differs from that observed in singletons from the same cohort, where babies in the three conception groups had similar weights by school entry age. The results are reassuring on known differences in FET versus fresh ET and NC twin outcomes. However, FET twins grow faster and are consistently larger, and more ART twins depict catch-up growth. These may lead to an increased risk profile for non-communicable diseases in later life. As such, these twin outcomes require careful evaluation using more recent and comprehensive cohorts. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by the EU H2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Innovative Training Networks (ITN) grant Dohartnet (H2020-MSCA-ITN-2018-812660). The authors have no competing interests to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

Portal pressure is of significant prognostic value in primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In other forms of chronic liver disease, measurement of portal pressure is of prognostic value, but this has not yet been established in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The aim of the study is to determine the prognostic value of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) in relation to liver-related survival outcomes, as well as to the development of hepatic decompensation, oesophageal varices and variceal bleeding. METHODS: Baseline HVPG and liver biopsies were obtained in 86 patients followed for 10 years in a controlled trial of colchicine treatment, and subsequently in a long-term observational cohort study for a further 30 years. RESULTS: There were 49 Hepatic deaths in addition to 10 Liver Transplants (Hepatic death/transplant; n = 59). Some of these were associated with a significant variceal bleed within 3 months of death or transplant (Portal hypertension-associated death or transplant; n = 19). There were 63 deaths from all causes. During follow-up, oesophageal varices developed in 26 patients, whilst 17 bled from varices and 32 developed hepatic decompensation over a median follow-up of 18.1 years (1.9-28.5). Baseline HVPG was highly predictive of all 6 clinical outcomes and contributed significant predictive information additional to that provided by Mayo score and Ludwig stage. CONCLUSION: Measurement of baseline portal pressure is of significant prognostic value in primary biliary cholangitis.

General health in a cohort of children conceived after assisted reproductive technology in the United Kingdom: a population-based record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Assisted reproductive technology use is increasing annually; however, data on long-term child health outcomes including hospital admissions are limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the potential effects of assisted reproductive technology on any and cause-specific hospital admissions unrelated to perinatal diagnoses. STUDY DESIGN: This was a population-based record-linkage study that included a previously established cohort of children born after assisted reproductive technology in the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2009 (n=63,877), their naturally conceived siblings (n=11,343), and matched naturally conceived population controls (n=127,544) linked to their postnatal health outcomes up to March 31, 2016 to provide robust risk estimates of the potential effects of assisted reproductive technology on any and cause-specific hospital admissions unrelated to perinatal diagnoses. In addition, comparison of hospital admissions by type of treatment was made. Cox regression was used to estimate the risk of hospital admission, and negative binomial regression was used to compare the number of hospital admissions per year. RESULTS: This study had 1.6 million person-years of follow-up (mean, 12.9 years; range, 0-19 years), and the mean age at the time of first hospital admission was 6.5 years (range, 0-19 years). Singletons born after assisted reproductive technology had increased risk of any hospital admission compared with naturally conceived population controls (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.10) but not naturally conceived siblings (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.09). We observed increased risk of diagnoses related to neoplasms and diseases of the respiratory, musculoskeletal, digestive, and genitourinary systems, and lower risk of injury, poisoning, and consequences of external causes compared with naturally conceived population controls. Children born after intracytoplasmic sperm injection had a lower risk of hospital admission compared with those born after in vitro fertilization, although no such differences were observed between children born after fresh embryo transfers and those born after frozen embryo transfers. CONCLUSION: Children born after assisted reproductive technology had greater numbers of hospital admissions compared with naturally conceived population controls. Attenuation of these differences in relation to their naturally conceived siblings suggested that this could be partially attributed to the influence of parental subfertility on child health, increased parental concerns, and an actual increase in morbidity in children born after assisted conception.

v-SYMPHONY career development series: A collaboration to enhance professional awareness for pediatric hematology oncology trainees.

BACKGROUND: A recent survey of pediatric hematology oncology (PHO) physicians identified that a majority believe fellows are struggling to find jobs that align with their goals. Career development for trainees has historically been home institution-specific, limiting fellows' exposures to career path possibilities. The "virtual-Symposium of Pediatric Hematology/Oncology of New York (v-SYMPHONY)" instituted a tristate Career Development Series for PHO trainees to better address their needs and increase awareness of the variety of PHO career opportunities. PROCEDURE: The v-SYMPHONY Career Development Series incorporated three sessions: (a) institutional perspective, (b) individual perspectives, and (c) nuts and bolts of job search. Pre- and post-series surveys were administered to participants to measure impact. RESULTS: Forty-one fellows registered for the series and completed a pre-survey. Over half (54%) were in their third or later year of fellowship. Careers with a clinical focus were the most commonly desired career path (59%). Most had received career development advice only from faculty within their institutions (90%). Post-surveys were completed by 11 PHO fellows. Overall, 100% of respondents reported benefiting from the career sessions and recommended the series should be repeated annually. Over 90% learned new information to prepare for the job search. CONCLUSIONS: The v-SYMPHONY Career Development Series for PHO fellows across multiple institutions was established and was extremely well received by its participants. PHO fellows agreed that these sessions were beneficial in helping prepare them for the job search process. An annual regional Career Development Series is feasible and is strongly suggested to support PHO fellows.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by Holocene warm water incursions.

Glaciological and oceanographic observations coupled with numerical models show that warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) incursions onto the West Antarctic continental shelf cause melting of the undersides of floating ice shelves. Because these ice shelves buttress glaciers feeding into them, their ocean-induced thinning is driving Antarctic ice-sheet retreat today. Here we present a multi-proxy data based reconstruction of variability in CDW inflow to the Amundsen Sea sector, the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, during the Holocene epoch (from 11.7 thousand years ago to the present). The chemical compositions of foraminifer shells and benthic foraminifer assemblages in marine sediments indicate that enhanced CDW upwelling, controlled by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, forced deglaciation of this sector from at least 10,400 years ago until 7,500 years ago-when an ice-shelf collapse may have caused rapid ice-sheet thinning further upstream-and since the 1940s. These results increase confidence in the predictive capability of current ice-sheet models.

Aided Cortical Auditory Evoked Potentials in Infants With Frequency-Specific Synthetic Speech Stimuli: Sensitivity, Repeatability, and Feasibility.

OBJECTIVES: The cortical auditory evoked potential (CAEP) test is a candidate for supplementing clinical practice for infant hearing aid users and others who are not developmentally ready for behavioral testing. Sensitivity of the test for given sensation levels (SLs) has been reported to some degree, but further data are needed from large numbers of infants within the target age range, including repeat data where CAEPs were not detected initially. This study aims to assess sensitivity, repeatability, acceptability, and feasibility of CAEPs as a clinical measure of aided audibility in infants. DESIGN: One hundred and three infant hearing aid users were recruited from 53 pediatric audiology centers across the UK. Infants underwent aided CAEP testing at age 3 to 7 months to a mid-frequency (MF) and (mid-)high-frequency (HF) synthetic speech stimulus. CAEP testing was repeated within 7 days. When developmentally ready (aged 7-21 months), the infants underwent aided behavioral hearing testing using the same stimuli, to estimate the decibel (dB) SL (i.e., level above threshold) of those stimuli when presented at the CAEP test sessions. Percentage of CAEP detections for different dB SLs are reported using an objective detection method (Hotellings T 2 ). Acceptability was assessed using caregiver interviews and a questionnaire, and feasibility by recording test duration and completion rate. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity for a single CAEP test when the stimuli were ≥0 dB SL (i.e., audible) was 70% for the MF stimulus and 54% for the HF stimulus. After repeat testing, this increased to 84% and 72%, respectively. For SL >10 dB, the respective MF and HF test sensitivities were 80% and 60% for a single test, increasing to 94% and 79% for the two tests combined. Clinical feasibility was demonstrated by an excellent >99% completion rate, and acceptable median test duration of 24 minutes, including preparation time. Caregivers reported overall positive experiences of the test. CONCLUSIONS: By addressing the clinical need to provide data in the target age group at different SLs, we have demonstrated that aided CAEP testing can supplement existing clinical practice when infants with hearing loss are not developmentally ready for traditional behavioral assessment. Repeat testing is valuable to increase test sensitivity. For clinical application, it is important to be aware of CAEP response variability in this age group.

On Sequential Bayesian Inference for Continual Learning.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and assess whether using the previous task's posterior as a prior for a new task can prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. Our first contribution is to perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by approximating the posterior via fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting, demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there, we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification, which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. Our final contribution is to propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with the best performing Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning computer vision benchmarks.

Scaling-up a pharmacist-led information technology intervention (PINCER) to reduce hazardous prescribing in general practices: Multiple interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported on a randomised trial demonstrating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a pharmacist-led information technology intervention (PINCER). We sought to investigate whether PINCER was effective in reducing hazardous prescribing when rolled out at scale in UK general practices. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a multiple interrupted time series design whereby successive groups of general practices received the PINCER intervention between September 2015 and April 2017. We used 11 prescribing safety indicators to identify potentially hazardous prescribing and collected data over a maximum of 16 quarterly time periods. The primary outcome was a composite of all the indicators; a composite for indicators associated with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding was also reported, along with 11 individual indicators of hazardous prescribing. Data were analysed using logistic mixed models for the quarterly event numbers with the appropriate denominator, and calendar time included as a covariate. PINCER was implemented in 370 (94.1%) of 393 general practices covering a population of almost 3 million patients in the East Midlands region of England; data were successfully extracted from 343 (92.7%) of these practices. For the primary composite outcome, the PINCER intervention was associated with a decrease in the rate of hazardous prescribing of 16.7% (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80 to 0.86) at 6 months and 15.3% (aOR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.90) at 12 months postintervention. The unadjusted rate of hazardous prescribing reduced from 26.4% (22,503 patients in the numerator/853,631 patients in the denominator) to 20.1% (11,901 patients in the numerator/591,364 patients in the denominator) at 6 months and 19.1% (3,868 patients in the numerator/201,992 patients in the denominator). The greatest reduction in hazardous prescribing associated with the intervention was observed for the indicators associated with GI bleeding; for the GI composite indicator, there was a decrease of 23.9% at both 6 months (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.80) and 12 months (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.82) postintervention. The unadjusted rate of hazardous prescribing reduced from 31.4 (16,185 patients in the numerator/515,879 patients in the denominator) to 21.2% (7,607 patients in the numerator/358,349 patients in the denominator) at 6 months and 19.5% (2,369 patients in the numerator/121,534 patients in the denominator). We adjusted for calendar time and practice, but since this was an observational study, the findings may have been influenced by unknown confounding factors or behavioural changes unrelated to the PINCER intervention. Data were also not collected for all practices at 6 months and 12 months postintervention. CONCLUSIONS: The PINCER intervention, when rolled out at scale in routine clinical practice, was associated with a reduction in hazardous prescribing by 17% and 15% at 6 and 12 months postintervention. The greatest reductions in hazardous prescribing were for indicators associated with risk of GI bleeding. These findings support the wider national rollout of PINCER in England.

New dimensions for hospital services and early detection of disease: a Review from the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This Review, in addressing the unacceptably high mortality of patients with liver disease admitted to acute hospitals, reinforces the need for integrated clinical services. The masterplan described is based on regional, geographically sited liver centres, each linked to four to six surrounding district general hospitals-a pattern of care similar to that successfully introduced for stroke services. The plan includes the establishment of a lead and deputy lead clinician in each acute hospital, preferably a hepatologist or gastroenterologist with a special interest in liver disease, who will have prime responsibility for organising the care of admitted patients with liver disease on a 24/7 basis. Essential for the plan is greater access to intensive care units and high-dependency units, in line with the reconfiguration of emergency care due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This Review strongly recommends full implementation of alcohol care teams in hospitals and improved working links with acute medical services. We also endorse recommendations from paediatric liver services to improve overall survival figures by diagnosing biliary atresia earlier based on stool colour charts and better caring for patients with impaired cognitive ability and developmental mental health problems. Pilot studies of earlier diagnosis have shown encouraging progress, with 5-6% of previously undiagnosed cases of severe fibrosis or cirrhosis identified through use of a portable FibroScan in primary care. Similar approaches to the detection of early asymptomatic disease are described in accounts from the devolved nations, and the potential of digital technology in improving the value of clinical consultation and screening programmes in primary care is highlighted. The striking contribution of comorbidities, particularly obesity and diabetes (with excess alcohol consumption known to be a major factor in obesity), to mortality in COVID-19 reinforces the need for fiscal and other long delayed regulatory measures to reduce the prevalence of obesity. These measures include the food sugar levy and the introduction of the minimum unit price policy to reduce alcohol consumption. Improving public health, this Review emphasises, will not only mitigate the severity of further waves of COVID-19, but is crucial to reducing the unacceptable burden from liver disease in the UK.

Chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia in pediatric oncology: Scope of the problem and opportunities for intervention.

BACKGROUND: Chemotherapy-induced thrombocytopenia (CIT) is a known hematologic complication of oncology treatment. This single-institution study examines the degree with which CIT impacts specific pediatric solid tumor cohorts reflected by platelet transfusion burden and treatment modifications. PROCEDURE: Data regarding clinically relevant CIT were obtained via a retrospective chart review of pediatric solid tumor patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center from 2013 to 2020. Patients were stratified based on histologic diagnoses as well as chemotherapy regimen. CIT impact was assessed through platelet transfusion means, chemotherapy dose reductions, and treatment delays. RESULTS: A total of 150 patients were included with mean age 10.3 [0.2-21.0]. Patients receiving therapy for high-risk neuroblastoma and localized Ewing sarcoma, both of which included high-dose cyclophosphamide and doxorubicin, required the most platelet transfusions over the treatment course, with a mean of 13 and 9, respectively. Reduced relative dose intensity (RDI), due in part to CIT, was greatest for the patients receiving therapy for high-risk and intermediate-risk rhabdomyosarcoma. Fifty-six percent of high-risk patients experienced a reduced RDI during the final two cycles of treatment and 69% of intermediate-risk patients experienced one during the final four cycles of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of CIT varied by the administered chemotherapy regimens and dose intensity of chemotherapy agents. This study demonstrated that CIT causes both marked platelet transfusion burden as well as treatment reduction and delay within certain solid tumor cohorts. This can lend to future studies aimed at reducing the burden of CIT and targeting the most at-risk populations.

Better maternity care pathways in pregnancies after stillbirth or neonatal death: a feasibility study.

BACKGROUND: Around 1 in 150 babies are stillborn or die in the first month of life in the UK. Most women conceive again, and subsequent pregnancies are often characterised by feelings of stress and anxiety, persisting beyond the birth. Psychological distress increases the risk of poor pregnancy outcomes and longer-term parenting difficulties. Appropriate emotional support in subsequent pregnancies is key to ensure the wellbeing of women and families. Substantial variability in existing care has been reported, including fragmentation and poor communication. A new care package improving midwifery continuity and access to emotional support during subsequent pregnancy could improve outcomes. However, no study has assessed the feasibility of a full-scale trial to test effectiveness in improving outcomes and cost-effectiveness for the National Health Service (NHS). METHODS: A prospective, mixed-methods pre-and post-cohort study, in two Northwest England Maternity Units. Thirty-eight women, (≤ 20 weeks' gestation, with a previous stillbirth, or neonatal death) were offered the study intervention (allocation of a named midwife care coordinator and access to group and online support). Sixteen women receiving usual care were recruited in the 6 months preceding implementation of the intervention. Outcome data were collected at 2 antenatal and 1 postnatal visit(s). Qualitative interviews captured experiences of care and research processes with women (n = 20), partners (n = 5), and midwives (n = 8). RESULTS: Overall recruitment was 90% of target, and 77% of women completed the study. A diverse sample reflected the local population, but non-English speaking was a barrier to participation. Study processes and data collection methods were acceptable. Those who received increased midwifery continuity valued the relationship with the care coordinator and perceived positive impacts on pregnancy experiences. However, the anticipated increase in antenatal continuity for direct midwife contacts was not observed for the intervention group. Take-up of in-person support groups was also limited. CONCLUSIONS: Women and partners welcomed the opportunity to participate in research. Continuity of midwifery care was supported as a beneficial strategy to improve care and support in pregnancy after the death of a baby by both parents and professionals. Important barriers to implementation included changes in leadership, service pressures and competing priorities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN17447733 first registration 13/02/2018.

Effect of soil particle size and extraction method on the oral bioaccessibility of arsenic.

Recent findings indicate that incidental ingestion of soil by humans primarily involves soil particles <150 µm, rather than <250 µm-sized fraction previously used for most oral bioaccessibility and bioavailability studies. It was postulated that a greater soil surface area in the finer fraction (<150 versus <250 µm) might increase oral bioaccessibility of arsenic (As) in soil. Bioaccessibility and concentrations of As were compared in <150 and <250 µm fractions of 18 soil samples from a variety of arsenic-contaminated sites. The two methods used to measure bioaccessibility were compared - EPA Method 1340 and the California Arsenic Bioaccessibility (CAB) method. Arsenic concentrations were nearly the same or higher in the <150 fraction compared with <250 µm. EPA Method 1340 and the CAB method presented significantly different bioaccessibility results, as well as estimated relative oral bioavailability (RBA) based upon algorithms specific to the methods, but there was no marked difference for <150 and <250 µm soil fractions within either method. When compared with RBA determined previously for these soil samples in vivo in non-human primates, EPA Method 1340 was generally more predictive than the CAB method. Data suggest that soil- or site-specific factors control bioaccessibility under either method and that the test method selected is more important than the particle size fraction (<150 or <250) in using these in vitro methods to predict As RBA for use in risk assessment.

Review of regulatory reference values and background levels for heavy metals in the human diet.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) has identified dietary exposure to heavy metals as a public health concern, focusing particularly on arsenic, cadmium, lead, and mercury. One way to determine current risk is to compare established safe exposure limits (reference values) with current population-based dietary background levels. Information on reference values and dietary background exposures for these metals and chromium were critically evaluated in support of an interactive risk assessment screening tool (Heavy Meals Screening Tool [HMST]). Cadmium, arsenic, and mercury background exposures from food and water were found to be below current safe US regulatory limits based on non-cancer effects, while lead background exposures were nearly equivalent to the US FDA's newest interim reference level for children. Because detections of chromium in foods are infrequent and data on speciation (trivalent versus hexavalent) are limited, chromium was excluded from the HMST. The focus of this work was to present U.S. based reference and background exposure values, although the tool can use inputs that may be more appropriate for other countries, cultures, and situations. With emerging science, new health endpoints, and changes in food consumption trends, both reference values and background exposure levels are likely to evolve.

Does PGT-A improve assisted reproduction treatment success rates: what can the UK Register data tell us?

PURPOSE: To show how naïve analyses of aggregated UK ART Register data held by the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority to estimate the effects of PGT-A can be severely misleading and to indicate how it may be possible to do a more credible analysis. Given the limitations of the Register, we consider the extent to which such an analysis has the potential to answer questions about the real-world effectiveness of PGT-A. METHODS: We utilise the publicly available Register datasets and construct logistic regression models for live birth events (LBE) which adjust for confounding. We compare all PGT-A cycles to control groups of cycles that could have had PGT-A, excluding cycles that did not progress to having embryos for biopsy. RESULTS: The primary model gives an odds ratio for LBE of 0.82 (95% CI 0.68-1.00) suggesting PGT-A may be detrimental rather than beneficial. However, due to limitations in the availability of important variables in the public dataset, this cannot be considered a definitive estimate. We outline the steps required to enable a credible analysis of the Register data. CONCLUSION: If we compare like with like groups, we obtain estimates of the effect of PGT-A that suggest an overall modest reduction in treatment success rates. These are in direct contrast to an invalid comparison of crude success rates. A detailed analysis of a fuller dataset is warranted, but it remains to be demonstrated whether the UK Register data can provide useful estimates of the impact of PGT-A when used as a treatment add-on.

Recurrent chromosomal imbalances provide selective advantage to human embryonic stem cells under enhanced replicative stress conditions.

Human embryonic stem cells (hESCs) and embryonal tumors share a number of common features, including a compromised G1/S checkpoint. Consequently, these rapidly dividing hESCs and cancer cells undergo elevated levels of replicative stress, inducing genomic instability that drives chromosomal imbalances. In this context, it is of interest that long-term in vitro cultured hESCs exhibit a remarkable high incidence of segmental DNA copy number gains, some of which are also highly recurrent in certain malignancies such as 17q gain (17q+). The selective advantage of DNA copy number changes in these cells has been attributed to several underlying processes including enhanced proliferation. We hypothesized that these recurrent chromosomal imbalances become rapidly embedded in the cultured hESCs through a replicative stress driven Darwinian selection process. To this end, we compared the effect of hydroxyurea-induced replicative stress vs normal growth conditions in an equally mixed cell population of isogenic euploid and 17q + hESCs. We could show that 17q + hESCs rapidly overtook normal hESCs. Our data suggest that recurrent chromosomal segmental gains provide a proliferative advantage to hESCs under increased replicative stress, a process that may also explain the highly recurrent nature of certain imbalances in cancer.

Unacceptable failures: the final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK.

This final report of the Lancet Commission into liver disease in the UK stresses the continuing increase in burden of liver disease from excess alcohol consumption and obesity, with high levels of hospital admissions which are worsening in deprived areas. Only with comprehensive food and alcohol strategies based on fiscal and regulatory measures (including a minimum unit price for alcohol, the alcohol duty escalator, and an extension of the sugar levy on food content) can the disease burden be curtailed. Following introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland, alcohol sales fell by 3%, with the greatest effect on heavy drinkers of low-cost alcohol products. We also discuss the major contribution of obesity and alcohol to the ten most common cancers as well as measures outlined by the departing Chief Medical Officer to combat rising levels of obesity-the highest of any country in the west. Mortality of severely ill patients with liver disease in district general hospitals is unacceptably high, indicating the need to develop a masterplan for improving hospital care. We propose a plan based around specialist hospital centres that are linked to district general hospitals by operational delivery networks. This plan has received strong backing from the British Association for Study of the Liver and British Society of Gastroenterology, but is held up at NHS England. The value of so-called day-case care bundles to reduce high hospital readmission rates with greater care in the community is described, along with examples of locally derived schemes for the early detection of disease and, in particular, schemes to allow general practitioners to refer patients directly for elastography assessment. New funding arrangements for general practitioners will be required if these proposals are to be taken up more widely around the country. Understanding of the harm to health from lifestyle causes among the general population is low, with a poor knowledge of alcohol consumption and dietary guidelines. The Lancet Commission has serious doubts about whether the initiatives described in the Prevention Green Paper, with the onus placed on the individual based on the use of information technology and the latest in behavioural science, will be effective. We call for greater coordination between official and non-official bodies that have highlighted the unacceptable disease burden from liver disease in England in order to present a single, strong voice to the higher echelons of government.