Psychosocial factors, health behaviors and risk of cancer incidence: Testing interaction and effect modification in an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Depression, anxiety and other psychosocial factors are hypothesized to be involved in cancer development. We examined whether psychosocial factors interact with or modify the effects of health behaviors, such as smoking and alcohol use, in relation to cancer incidence. Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 22 cohorts of the PSYchosocial factors and CAncer (PSY-CA) study. We examined nine psychosocial factors (depression diagnosis, depression symptoms, anxiety diagnosis, anxiety symptoms, perceived social support, loss events, general distress, neuroticism, relationship status), seven health behaviors/behavior-related factors (smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, sedentary behavior, sleep quality, sleep duration) and seven cancer outcomes (overall cancer, smoking-related, alcohol-related, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal). Effects of the psychosocial factor, health behavior and their product term on cancer incidence were estimated using Cox regression. We pooled cohort-specific estimates using multivariate random-effects meta-analyses. Additive and multiplicative interaction/effect modification was examined. This study involved 437,827 participants, 36,961 incident cancer diagnoses, and 4,749,481 person years of follow-up. Out of 744 combinations of psychosocial factors, health behaviors, and cancer outcomes, we found no evidence of interaction. Effect modification was found for some combinations, but there were no clear patterns for any particular factors or outcomes involved. In this first large study to systematically examine potential interaction and effect modification, we found no evidence for psychosocial factors to interact with or modify health behaviors in relation to cancer incidence. The behavioral risk profile for cancer incidence is similar in people with and without psychosocial stress.

The mediating role of health behaviors in the association between depression, anxiety and cancer incidence: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although behavioral mechanisms in the association among depression, anxiety, and cancer are plausible, few studies have empirically studied mediation by health behaviors. We aimed to examine the mediating role of several health behaviors in the associations among depression, anxiety, and the incidence of various cancer types (overall, breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, smoking-related, and alcohol-related cancers). METHODS: Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 18 cohorts within the Psychosocial Factors and Cancer Incidence consortium that had a measure of depression or anxiety (N = 319 613, cancer incidence = 25 803). Health behaviors included smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, body mass index (BMI), sedentary behavior, and sleep duration and quality. In stage one, path-specific regression estimates were obtained in each cohort. In stage two, cohort-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects multivariate meta-analysis, and natural indirect effects (i.e. mediating effects) were calculated as hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: Smoking (HRs range 1.04-1.10) and physical inactivity (HRs range 1.01-1.02) significantly mediated the associations among depression, anxiety, and lung cancer. Smoking was also a mediator for smoking-related cancers (HRs range 1.03-1.06). There was mediation by health behaviors, especially smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and a higher BMI, in the associations among depression, anxiety, and overall cancer or other types of cancer, but effects were small (HRs generally below 1.01). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking constitutes a mediating pathway linking depression and anxiety to lung cancer and smoking-related cancers. Our findings underline the importance of smoking cessation interventions for persons with depression or anxiety.

Recognition of cognitive dysfunction in hospitalised older patients: a flash mob study.

BACKGROUND: It is important that healthcare professionals recognise cognitive dysfunction in hospitalised older patients in order to address associated care needs, such as enhanced involvement of relatives and extra cognitive and functional support. However, studies analysing medical records suggest that healthcare professionals have low awareness of cognitive dysfunction in hospitalised older patients. In this study, we investigated the prevalence of cognitive dysfunction in hospitalised older patients, the percentage of patients in which cognitive dysfunction was recognised by healthcare professionals, and which variables were associated with recognition. METHODS: A multicentre, nationwide, cross-sectional observational study was conducted on a single day using a flash mob study design in thirteen university and general hospitals in the Netherlands. Cognitive function was assessed in hospitalised patients aged ≥ 65 years old, who were admitted to medical and surgical wards. A Mini-Cog score of < 3 out of 5 indicated cognitive dysfunction. The attending nurses and physicians were asked whether they suspected cognitive dysfunction in their patient. Variables associated with recognition of cognitive dysfunction were assessed using multilevel and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: 347 of 757 enrolled patients (46%) showed cognitive dysfunction. Cognitive dysfunction was recognised by attending nurses in 137 of 323 patients (42%) and by physicians in 156 patients (48%). In 135 patients (42%), cognitive dysfunction was not recognised by either the attending nurse or physician. Recognition of cognitive dysfunction was better at a lower Mini-Cog score, with the best recognition in patients with the lowest scores. Patients with a Mini-Cog score < 3 were best recognised in the geriatric department (69% by nurses and 72% by physicians). CONCLUSION: Cognitive dysfunction is common in hospitalised older patients and is poorly recognised by healthcare professionals. This study highlights the need to improve recognition of cognitive dysfunction in hospitalised older patients, particularly in individuals with less apparent cognitive dysfunction. The high proportion of older patients with cognitive dysfunction suggests that it may be beneficial to provide care tailored to cognitive dysfunction for all hospitalised older patients.

Depression, anxiety, and the risk of cancer: An individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety have long been hypothesized to be related to an increased cancer risk. Despite the great amount of research that has been conducted, findings are inconclusive. To provide a stronger basis for addressing the associations between depression, anxiety, and the incidence of various cancer types (overall, breast, lung, prostate, colorectal, alcohol-related, and smoking-related cancers), individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses were performed within the Psychosocial Factors and Cancer Incidence (PSY-CA) consortium. METHODS: The PSY-CA consortium includes data from 18 cohorts with measures of depression or anxiety (up to N = 319,613; cancer incidences, 25,803; person-years of follow-up, 3,254,714). Both symptoms and a diagnosis of depression and anxiety were examined as predictors of future cancer risk. Two-stage IPD meta-analyses were run, first by using Cox regression models in each cohort (stage 1), and then by aggregating the results in random-effects meta-analyses (stage 2). RESULTS: No associations were found between depression or anxiety and overall, breast, prostate, colorectal, and alcohol-related cancers. Depression and anxiety (symptoms and diagnoses) were associated with the incidence of lung cancer and smoking-related cancers (hazard ratios [HRs], 1.06-1.60). However, these associations were substantially attenuated when additionally adjusting for known risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and body mass index (HRs, 1.04-1.23). CONCLUSIONS: Depression and anxiety are not related to increased risk for most cancer outcomes, except for lung and smoking-related cancers. This study shows that key covariates are likely to explain the relationship between depression, anxiety, and lung and smoking-related cancers. PREREGISTRATION NUMBER: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=157677.

No association between blood-based markers of immune system and migraine status: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although some evidence implicates the immune system in migraine attacks, its role during attack-free periods remains largely unexplored. Therefore, we assessed the association between the immune system and migraine status. METHODS: From the population-based Rotterdam Study, we included 6593 participants who underwent blood sampling and migraine assessments. In the blood samples, we measured white blood-cell-based immune markers. As a marker for the innate immune system, granulocyte and platelet counts were determined, whereas lymphocyte counts were used as a marker for the adaptive immune system. Migraine was assessed using a validated questionnaire based on ICHD-2 criteria. We investigated associations between blood-cell counts and migraine using logistic regression models adjusting for age, sex and other variables. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 65.6 ± 11.2 years and 56.7% were female. The lifetime prevalence of migraine was 15.1% (995/6593). We found no statistically significant associations between granulocyte (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation increase 1.01 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.93-1.09), platelet (OR 1.01 CI: 0.94-1.09) or lymphocyte counts (OR 1.01 CI: 0.93-1.08) and migraine status. CONCLUSIONS: Our results do not support an association between white blood-cell-based immunity markers and migraine status.

Risk of cancer after ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction.

Analyses from administrative databases have suggested an increased cancer incidence among individuals who experienced a myocardial infarction, especially within the first 6 months. It remains unclear to what extent this represents an underlying biological link, or can be explained by detection of pre-symptomatic cancers and shared risk factors. Cancer incidence among 1809 consecutive patients surviving hospitalization for thrombotic ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI; mean age 62.6 years; 26% women; 115 incident cancers) was compared to the cancer incidence among 10,052 individuals of the general population (Rotterdam Study; mean age 63.1 years; 57% women; 677 incident cancers). Pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses were obtained through identical linkage of both cohorts with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Cox models were used to obtain hazards ratios (HRs) adjusted for factors associated with both atherosclerosis and cancer. Over 5-year follow-up, there was no significant difference in the incidence of cancer between STEMI patients and the general population (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.78-1.19). In the first 3 months after STEMI, cancer incidence was markedly higher among STEMI patients compared to the general population (HR 2.45, 95% CI 1.13-5.30), which gradually dissolved during follow-up (P-for-trend 0.004). Among STEMI patients, higher C-reactive protein, higher platelet counts, and lower hemoglobin were associated with cancer incidence during the first year after STEMI (HRs 2.93 for C-reactive protein > 10 mg/dL, 2.10 for platelet count > 300*109, and 3.92 for hemoglobin < 7.5 mmol/L). Although rare, thrombotic STEMI might be a paraneoplastic manifestation of yet to be diagnosed cancer, and is hallmarked by a pro-inflammatory status and anemia.Trial registration Registered into the Netherlands National Trial Register and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform under shared catalogue number NTR6831.

Delirium in older patients with COVID-19: Prevalence, risk factors and clinical outcomes across the first three waves of the pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Delirium is a serious condition, which poses treatment challenges during hospitalisation for COVID-19. Improvements in testing, vaccination and treatment might have changed patient characteristics and outcomes through the pandemic. We evaluated whether the prevalence and risk factors for delirium, and the association of delirium with in-hospital mortality changed through the pandemic. METHODS: This study was part of the COVID-OLD study in 19 Dutch hospitals including patients ≥70 years in the first (spring 2020), second (autumn 2020) and third wave (autumn 2021). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to study risk factors for delirium, and in-hospital mortality. Differences in effect sizes between waves were studied by including interaction terms between wave and risk factor in logistic regression models. RESULTS: 1540, 884 and 370 patients were included in the first, second and third wave, respectively. Prevalence of delirium in the third wave (12.7%) was significantly lower compared to the first (22.5%) and second wave (23.5%). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, pre-existing memory problems was a consistent risk factor for delirium across waves. Previous delirium was a risk factor for delirium in the first wave (OR 4.02), but not in the second (OR 1.61) and third wave (OR 2.59, p-value interaction-term 0.028). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, delirium was not associated with in-hospital mortality in all waves. CONCLUSION: Delirium prevalence declined in the third wave, which might be the result of vaccination and improved treatment strategies. Risk factors for delirium remained consistent across waves, although some attenuation was seen in the second wave.

Sex-specific patterns and lifetime risk of multimorbidity in the general population: a 23-year prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity poses a major challenge for care coordination. However, data on what non-communicable diseases lead to multimorbidity, and whether the lifetime risk differs between men and women are lacking. We determined sex-specific differences in multimorbidity patterns and estimated sex-specific lifetime risk of multimorbidity in the general population. METHODS: We followed 6,094 participants from the Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older for the occurrence of ten diseases (cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, depression, diabetes, dementia, asthma, heart failure, parkinsonism). We visualised participants' trajectories from a single disease to multimorbidity and the most frequent combinations of diseases. We calculated sex-specific lifetime risk of multimorbidity, considering multimorbidity involving only somatic diseases (1) affecting the same organ system, (2) affecting different organ systems, and (3) multimorbidity involving depression. RESULTS: Over the follow-up period (1993-2016, median years of follow-up 9.2), we observed 6334 disease events. Of the study population, 10.3% had three or more diseases, and 27.9% had two or more diseases. The most frequent pair of co-occurring diseases among men was COPD and cancer (12.5% of participants with multimorbidity), the most frequent pair of diseases among women was depression and dementia (14.9%). The lifetime risk of multimorbidity was similar among men (66.0%, 95% CI: 63.2-68.8%) and women (65.1%, 95% CI: 62.5-67.7%), yet the risk of multimorbidity with depression was higher for women (30.9%, 95% CI: 28.4-33.5%, vs. 17.5%, 95% CI: 15.2-20.1%). The risk of multimorbidity with two diseases affecting the same organ is relatively low for both sexes (4.2% (95% CI: 3.2-5.5%) for men and 4.5% (95% CI: 3.5-5.7%) for women). CONCLUSIONS: Two thirds of people over 45 will develop multimorbidity in their remaining lifetime, with women at nearly double the risk of multimorbidity involving depression than men. These findings call for programmes of integrated care to consider sex-specific differences to ensure men and women are served equally.

Characteristics and outcomes of older patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in the first and second wave of the pandemic in The Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study.

BACKGROUND: as the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic progressed diagnostics and treatment changed. OBJECTIVE: to investigate differences in characteristics, disease presentation and outcomes of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients between the first and second pandemic wave in The Netherlands. METHODS: this was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 16 hospitals in The Netherlands including patients aged ≥ 70 years, hospitalised for COVID-19 in Spring 2020 (first wave) and Autumn 2020 (second wave). Data included Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Main outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: a total of 1,376 patients in the first wave (median age 78 years, 60% male) and 946 patients in the second wave (median age 79 years, 61% male) were included. There was no relevant difference in presence of comorbidity (median CCI 2) or frailty (median CFS 4). Patients in the second wave were admitted earlier in the disease course (median 6 versus 7 symptomatic days; P < 0.001). In-hospital mortality was lower in the second wave (38.1% first wave versus 27.0% second wave; P < 0.001). Mortality risk was 40% lower in the second wave compared with the first wave (95% confidence interval: 28-51%) after adjustment for differences in patient characteristics, comorbidity, symptomatic days until admission, disease severity and frailty. CONCLUSIONS: compared with older patients hospitalised in the first COVID-19 wave, patients in the second wave had lower in-hospital mortality, independent of risk factors for mortality.The better prognosis likely reflects earlier diagnosis, the effect of improvement in treatment and is relevant for future guidelines and treatment decisions.

Change in cognition before and after non-central nervous system cancer diagnosis: A population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical studies showing that non-central nervous system cancer patients can develop cognitive impairment have primarily focused on patients with specific cancer types and intensive treatments. To better understand the course of cognitive function in the general population of cancer patients, we assessed cognitive trajectories of patients before and after cancer diagnosis in a population-based setting. METHODS: Between 1989 and 2014, 2211 participants from the population-based Rotterdam study had been diagnosed with cancer of whom 718 (32.5%) had undergone ≥1 cognitive assessment before and after diagnosis. Cognition was measured every 3 to 6 years using a neuropsychological battery. Linear mixed models were used to compare cognitive trajectories of patients before and after diagnosis with those of age-matched cancer-free controls (1:3). RESULTS: Median age at cancer diagnosis was 70.3 years and 47.1% were women. Most patients (68.1%) had received local treatment only. Cognitive trajectories of patients before and after cancer diagnosis were largely similar to those of controls. After diagnosis, the largest difference was found on a memory test (patients declined with 0.14 units per year on the Word Learning Test: delayed recall [95% CI = -0.35; 0.07] and controls with 0.09 units [95% CI = -0.18;-0.00], p for difference = .59). CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal cohort, cancer did not appear to alter the trajectory of change in cognitive test results over time from that seen in similar individuals without cancer, although most cancer patients did not receive systemic therapies. Future studies should focus on identifying subgroups of patients who are at high risk for developing cognitive impairment.

Frailty is associated with in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: the COVID-OLD study.

BACKGROUND: During the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, older patients had an increased risk of hospitalisation and death. Reports on the association of frailty with poor outcome have been conflicting. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to investigate the independent association between frailty and in-hospital mortality in older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands. METHODS: This was a multicentre retrospective cohort study in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands, including all patients aged ≥70 years, who were hospitalised with clinically confirmed COVID-19 between February and May 2020. Data were collected on demographics, co-morbidity, disease severity and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,376 patients were included (median age 78 years (interquartile range 74-84), 60% male). In total, 499 (38%) patients died during hospital admission. Parameters indicating presence of frailty (CFS 6-9) were associated with more co-morbidities, shorter symptom duration upon presentation (median 4 versus 7 days), lower oxygen demand and lower levels of C-reactive protein. In multivariable analyses, the CFS was independently associated with in-hospital mortality: compared with patients with CFS 1-3, patients with CFS 4-5 had a two times higher risk (odds ratio (OR) 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-3.0)) and patients with CFS 6-9 had a three times higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 2.8 (95% CI 1.8-4.3)). CONCLUSIONS: The in-hospital mortality of older hospitalised COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands was 38%. Frailty was independently associated with higher in-hospital mortality, even though COVID-19 patients with frailty presented earlier to the hospital with less severe symptoms.

The systemic immune-inflammation index is associated with an increased risk of incident cancer-A population-based cohort study.

Several studies found that the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) is a prognostic factor for mortality in patients with solid tumors. It is unknown whether an increased SII in generally healthy individuals reflects a risk for developing cancer. Our objective was to investigate the association between the SII and incident cancers in a prospective cohort study. Data were obtained from the Rotterdam Study; a population-based study of individuals aged ≥45 years, between 2002 and 2013. The SII at baseline was calculated from absolute blood counts. The association between the SII and the risk of any solid incident cancer during follow-up was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. Individuals with a prior cancer diagnosis were excluded. Data of 8,024 individuals were included in the analyses. The mean age at baseline was 65.6 years (SD 10.5 years) and the majority were women. During a maximum follow-up period of 10.7 years, 733 individuals were diagnosed with cancer. A higher SII at baseline was associated with a 30% higher risk of developing a solid cancer (HR of 1.30 [95% CI; 1.11-1.53]), after adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking, BMI and type 2 diabetes. The absolute cumulative 10-year cancer risk increased from 9.7% in the lowest quartile of SII to 14.7% in the highest quartile (p-value = 0.009). The risk of developing cancer was persistent over time and increased for individuals with the longest follow-up. In conclusion, a high SII is a strong and independent risk indicator for developing a solid cancer.

Ascertainment of cancer in longitudinal research: The concordance between the Rotterdam Study and the Netherlands Cancer Registry.

Complete and accurate registration of cancer is needed to provide reliable data on cancer incidence and to investigate aetiology. Such data can be derived from national cancer registries, but also from large population-based cohort studies. Yet, the concordance and discordance between these two data sources remain unknown. We evaluated completeness and accuracy of cancer registration by studying the concordance between the population-based Rotterdam Study (RS) and the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) between 1989 and 2012 using the independent case ascertainment method. We compared all incident cancers in participants of the RS (aged ≥45 years) to registered cancers in the NCR in the same persons based on the date of diagnosis and the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code. In total, 2,977 unique incident cancers among 2,685 persons were registered. Two hundred eighty-eight cancers (9.7%) were coded by the RS that were not present in the NCR. These were mostly nonpathology-confirmed lung and haematological cancers. Furthermore, 116 cancers were coded by the NCR, but not by the RS (3.9%), of which 20.7% were breast cancers. Regarding pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses, completeness was >95% in both registries. Eighty per cent of the cancers registered in both registries were coded with the same date of diagnosis and ICD code. Of the remaining cancers, 344 (14.5%) were misclassified with regard to date of diagnosis and 72 (3.0%) with regard to ICD code. Our findings indicate that multiple sources on cancer are complementary and should be combined to ensure reliable data on cancer incidence.

The association of innate and adaptive immunity, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular disease in the Rotterdam Study: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is driven by multifaceted contributions of the immune system. However, the dysregulation of immune cells that leads to ASCVD is poorly understood. We determined the association of components of innate and adaptive immunity longitudinally with ASCVD, and assessed whether arterial calcifications play a role in this association. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Granulocyte (innate immunity) and lymphocyte (adaptive immunity) counts were determined 3 times (2002-2008, mean age 65.2 years; 2009-2013, mean age 69.0 years; and 2014-2015, mean age 78.5 years) in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without ASCVD at baseline. Participants were followed-up for ASCVD or death until 1 January 2015. A random sample of 2,366 underwent computed tomography at baseline to quantify arterial calcification volume in 4 vessel beds. We studied the association between immunity components with risk of ASCVD and assessed whether immunity components were related to arterial calcifications at baseline. Of 7,730 participants (59.4% women), 801 developed ASCVD during a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Having an increased granulocyte count increased ASCVD risk (adjusted hazard ratio for doubled granulocyte count [95% CI] = 1.78 [1.34-2.37], P < 0.001). Higher granulocyte counts were related to larger calcification volumes in all vessels, most prominently in the coronary arteries (mean difference in calcium volume [mm3] per SD increase in granulocyte count [95% CI] = 32.3 [9.9-54.7], P < 0.001). Respectively, the association between granulocyte count and incident coronary heart disease and stroke was partly mediated by coronary artery calcification (overall proportion mediated [95% CI] = 19.0% [-10% to 32.3%], P = 0.08) and intracranial artery calcification (14.9% [-10.9% to 19.1%], P = 0.05). A limitation of our study is that studying the etiology of ASCVD remains difficult within an epidemiological setting due to the limited availability of surrogates for innate and especially adaptive immunity. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that an increased granulocyte count was associated with a higher risk of ASCVD in the general population. Moreover, higher levels of granulocytes were associated with larger volumes of arterial calcification. Arterial calcifications may explain a proportion of the link between granulocytes and ASCVD.

Validation of the BOADICEA model and a 313-variant polygenic risk score for breast cancer risk prediction in a Dutch prospective cohort.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the performance of the recently extended Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm (BOADICEA version 5) in a Dutch prospective cohort, using a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on 313 breast cancer (BC)-associated variants (PRS313) and other, nongenetic risk factors. METHODS: Since 1989, 6522 women without BC aged 45 or older of European descent have been included in the Rotterdam Study. The PRS313 was calculated per 1 SD in controls from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Cox regression analysis was performed to estimate the association between the PRS313 and incident BC risk. Cumulative 10-year risks were calculated with BOADICEA including different sets of variables (age, risk factors and PRS313). C-statistics were used to evaluate discriminative ability. RESULTS: In total, 320 women developed BC. The PRS313 was significantly associated with BC (hazard ratio [HR] per SD of 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] [1.40-1.73]). Using 10-year risk estimates including age and the PRS313, other risk factors improved the discriminatory ability of the BOADICEA model marginally, from a C-statistic of 0.636 to 0.653. CONCLUSIONS: The effect size of the PRS313 is highly reproducible in the Dutch population. Our results validate the BOADICEA v5 model for BC risk assessment in the Dutch general population.

Pathology-confirmed versus non pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses: incidence, participant characteristics, and survival.

Cancer diagnoses which are not confirmed by pathology are often under-registered in cancer registries compared to pathology-confirmed diagnoses. It is unknown how many patients have a non pathology-confirmed cancer diagnosis, and whether their characteristics and survival differ from patients with a pathology-confirmed diagnosis. Participants from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study were followed between 1989 and 2013 for the diagnosis of cancer. Cancer diagnoses were classified into pathology-confirmed versus non pathology-confirmed (i.e., based on imaging or tumour markers). We compared participant characteristics and the distribution of cancers at different sites. Furthermore, we investigated differences in overall survival using survival curves adjusted for age and sex. During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 10.7 (6.3-15.9) years, 2698 out of 14,024 participants were diagnosed with cancer, of which 316 diagnoses (11.7%) were non pathology-confirmed. Participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses were older, more often women, and had a lower education. Most frequently non pathology-confirmed cancer sites included central nervous system (66.7%), hepato-pancreato-biliary (44.5%), and unknown primary origin (31.2%). Survival of participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses after 1 year was lower compared to survival of participants with pathology-confirmed diagnoses (32.6% vs. 63.4%; risk difference of 30.8% [95% CI 25.2%; 36.2%]). Pathological confirmation of cancer is related to participant characteristics and cancer site. Furthermore, participants with non pathology-confirmed diagnoses have worse survival than participants with pathology-confirmed diagnoses. Missing data on non pathology-confirmed diagnoses may result in underestimation of cancer incidence and in an overestimation of survival in cancer registries, and may introduce bias in aetiological research.

Lifetime risk and multimorbidity of non-communicable diseases and disease-free life expectancy in the general population: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.

Under-representation of elderly in clinical trials: An analysis of the initial approval documents in the Food and Drug Administration database.

AIMS: To evaluate the availability of pharmacokinetic, safety and efficacy analyses specifically targeted at elderly, prior to the authorization of drugs. METHODS: A cross-sectional, structured review of publicly available initial approval documents of Food and Drug Administration-approved drugs was performed. The 10 most frequently on-label prescribed drug classes, drugs with known pharmacokinetic differences in the elderly or drugs that are relatively contraindicated in elderly (e.g. anticholinergics or benzodiazepines) were included in the analyses. RESULTS: In total, 1129 unique active pharmaceutical ingredients were found eligible for the analyses, of these, 506 were found in the Food and Drug Administration database (45%). The initial approval documents were available for 182 drugs. For the majority of the drugs, the initial approval documents in the database showed information on pharmacokinetics in elderly (n = 113; 62%). Furthermore, over time, the availability of information with regard to elderly increased statistically significantly from 0% in the period 1970-1979 to 76% for the period 2010-2018. Information on safety and efficacy was less frequently present, i.e. 42% and 45%, respectively and, moreover, the availability of information did not improve over time. CONCLUSION: The under-representation of elderly in clinical trials thereby challenging the external validity of benefit/risk assessments of launched drugs was confirmed. Priority should be given to a study population that is representative for the target population.

Animal foods and postmenopausal breast cancer risk: a prospective cohort study.

The role of diet on breast cancer risk is not well elucidated but animal food sources may play a role through, for example, the pathway of the insulin-like growth factor 1 system or cholesterol metabolism. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between animal foods and the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. This study was embedded in the Rotterdam Study, a population-based prospective cohort study of subjects aged 55 years and over (61 % female). Dietary intake of different animal foods was assessed at baseline using a validated FFQ and adjusted for energy intake using the residual method. We performed Cox proportional hazards modelling to analyse the association between the intake of the different food sources and breast cancer risk after adjustment for socio-demographic, lifestyle and metabolic factors. During a median follow-up of 17 years, we identified 199 cases of breast cancer (6·2 %) among 3209 women. After adjustment for multiple confounders, no consistent association was found between the intake of red meat intake, poultry, fish or dairy products and breast cancer risk. However, we found that egg intake was significantly associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (hazard ratioQ4 v. Q1: 1·83; 95 % CI 1·20, 2·79; Ptrend=0·01). In conclusion, this study found that dietary egg intake but no other animal foods was associated with a higher risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. Further research on the potential mechanisms underlying this association is warranted.

Mild Cognitive Impairment and Dementia Show Contrasting Associations with Risk of Cancer.

BACKGROUND: To investigate and to compare the relation between dementia and cancer with the association between mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and cancer. METHODS: A total of 13,207 persons from the Rotterdam Study were followed between 1990 and 2013 for the onset of dementia and cancer (sample 1). Between 2002 and 2005, a subset of 5,181 persons underwent extensive cognitive testing for MCI and subsequently were followed up for cancer until 2013 (sample 2). We used Cox proportional hazard models to determine the association between dementia and cancer, and MCI and cancer. RESULTS: In sample 1, 1,404 patients were diagnosed with dementia, and 2,316 developed cancer (63 among dementia cases). Dementia was associated with a decreased risk of cancer (hazard ratio [HR] 0.53; 95% CI 0.41-0.68). In sample 2, 513 persons were diagnosed with MCI and 670 persons developed cancer (81 among MCI cases). In contrast to individuals with dementia, those with MCI tended to have an increased risk of cancer (HR 1.25; 95% CI 0.99-1.58). CONCLUSIONS: We found that persons with MCI tended to have an increased risk of cancer, whereas those with dementia have a decreased risk. These findings call into question a biological explanation for the inverse link between dementia and cancer, thereby suggesting the presence of methodological bias.