Forecasting and Criminal Justice Policy and Practice.

We address the organization of criminal justice forecasting and implications for its use in criminal justice policymaking. We argue that the use of forecasting is relatively widespread in criminal justice agency settings, but it is used primarily to inform decision-making and practice rather than to formulate and test new policy proposals. Using predictive policing and prison population forecasting as our main examples of the range of forecasting methods adopted in criminal justice practice, we describe their uses, how their use is organized, and the implications of the organizational arrangements for the transparent, reviewable, and consensual use of forecasting. We point out that both prison population forecasting and predictive policing have long histories that have led to advances in methodology. Prison population forecasting has generally become embedded in budget decision-making processes that contribute to greater transparency in method and applications. Predictive policing has been less transparent in method and use, partly because the methods are more complicated and rely on larger amounts of data, but it generally has not be used in ways to foster community engagement and build public support. Concerns about the legitimacy of its use persist.

Pandemic influenza and jail facilities and populations.

Persons processed into and through jail facilities in the United States may be particularly vulnerable during an influenza pandemic. Among other concerns, public health and corrections officials need to consider flow issues, the high turnover and transitions between jails and the community, and the decentralized organization of jails. In this article, we examine some of the unique challenges jail facilities may face during an influenza pandemic and discuss issues that should be addressed to reduce the spread of illness and lessen the impact of an influenza pandemic on the jail population and their surrounding communities.

Building community capacity for violence prevention.

The capacity of communities to prevent violence is examined from three perspectives: youth violence, child maltreatment, and intimate partner violence. The analysis suggests that community social control and collective efficacy are significant protective factors for all three types of violence, but these need to be further distinguished for their relationships to private, parochial, and state controls. It is argued that strong interpersonal ties are not the only contributor to collective efficacy and violence prevention. Weak ties, including those outside the community, and organizational ties are also seen as necessary. Violence prevention programs should be structured in ways that contribute to the communities' own capacity to prevent violence.

Prison tobacco control policies and deaths from smoking in United States prisons: population based retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the mortality attributable to smoking and years of potential life lost from smoking among people in prison and whether bans on smoking in prison are associated with reductions in smoking related deaths. DESIGN: Analysis of cross sectional survey data with the smoking attributable mortality, morbidity, and economic costs system; population based time series analysis. SETTING: All state prisons in the United States. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of smoking from cross sectional survey of inmates in state correctional facilities. Data on state prison tobacco policies from web based searches of state policies and legislation. Deaths and causes of death in US state prisons from the deaths in custody reporting program of the Bureau of Justice Statistics for 2001-11. Smoking attributable mortality and years of potential life lost was assessed from the smoking attributable mortality, morbidity, and economic costs system of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Multivariate Poisson models quantified the association between bans and smoking related cancer, cardiovascular and pulmonary deaths. RESULTS: The most common causes of deaths related to smoking among people in prison were lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, other heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic airways obstruction. The age adjusted smoking attributable mortality and years of potential life lost rates were 360 and 5149 per 100,000, respectively; these figures are higher than rates in the general US population (248 and 3501, respectively). The number of states with any smoking ban increased from 25 in 2001 to 48 by 2011. In prisons the mortality rate from smoking related causes was lower during years with a ban than during years without a ban (110.4/100,000 v 128.9/100,000). Prisons that implemented smoking bans had a 9% reduction (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.95) in smoking related deaths. Bans in place for longer than nine years were associated with reductions in cancer mortality (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking contributes to substantial mortality in prison, and prison tobacco control policies are associated with reduced mortality. These findings suggest that smoking bans have health benefits for people in prison, despite the limits they impose on individual autonomy and the risks of relapse after release.