Updated core competencies in pharmacoepidemiology to inform contemporary curricula and training for academia, government, and industry.

PURPOSE: The first paper to specify the core content of pharmacoepidemiology as a profession was published by an ISPE (International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology) workgroup in 2012 (Jones JK et al. PDS 2012; 21[7]:677-689). Due to the broader and evolving scope of pharmacoepidemiology, ISPE considers it important to proactively identify, update and expand the list of core competencies to inform curricula of education programs; thus, better positioning pharmacoepidemiologists across academic, government (including regulatory), and industry positions. The aim of this project was to update the list of core competencies in pharmacoepidemiology. METHODS: To ensure applicability of findings to multiple areas, a working group was established consisting of ISPE members with positions in academia, industry, government, and other settings. All competencies outlined by Jones et al. were extracted from the initial manuscript and presented to the working group for review. Expert-based judgments were collated and used to identify consensus. It was noted that some competencies could contribute to multiple groups and could be directly or indirectly related to a group. RESULTS: Five core domains were proposed: (1) Epidemiology, (2) Clinical Pharmacology, (3) Regulatory Science, (4) Statistics and data science, and (5) Communication and other professional skills. In total, 55 individual competencies were proposed, of which 25 were new competencies. No competencies from the original work were dropped but aggregation or amendments were made where considered necessary. CONCLUSIONS: While many core competencies in pharmacoepidemiology have remained the same over the past 10 years, there have also been several updates to reflect new and emerging concepts in the field.

Lessons learned from a multi-data source research collaboration: The mirabegron post-authorization safety study program.

BACKGROUND: Many factors contribute to developing and conducting a successful multi-data source, non-interventional, post-authorization safety study (NI-PASS) for submission to multiple health authorities. Such studies are often large undertakings; evaluating and sharing lessons learned can provide useful insights to others considering similar studies. OBJECTIVES: We discuss challenges and key methodological and organizational factors that led to the delivery of a successful post-marketing requirement (PMR)/PASS program investigating the risk of cardiovascular and cancer events among users of mirabegron, an oral medication for the treatment of overactive bladder. RESULTS: We provide context and share learnings, including sections on research program collaboration, scientific transparency, organizational approach, mitigation of uncertainty around potential delays, validity of study outcomes, selection of data sources and optimizing patient numbers, choice of comparator groups and enhancing precision of estimates of associations, potential confounding and generalizability of study findings, and interpretation of results. CONCLUSIONS: This large PMR/PASS program was a long-term commitment from all parties and benefited from an effective coordinating center and extensive scientific interactions across research partners, scientific advisory board, study sponsor, and health authorities, and delivered useful learnings related to the design and organization of multi-data source NI-PASS.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 primary series vaccination in children aged 5-17 years in the United States: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines are authorized for use in children in the United States; real-world assessment of vaccine effectiveness in children is needed. This study's objective was to estimate the effectiveness of receiving a complete primary series of monovalent BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) COVID-19 vaccine in US children. METHODS: This cohort study identified children aged 5-17 years vaccinated with BNT162b2 matched with unvaccinated children. Participants and BNT162b2 vaccinations were identified in Optum and CVS Health insurance administrative claims databases linked with Immunization Information System (IIS) COVID-19 vaccination records from 16 US jurisdictions between December 11, 2020, and May 31, 2022 (end date varied by database and IIS). Vaccinated children were followed from their first BNT162b2 dose and matched to unvaccinated children on calendar date, US county of residence, and demographic and clinical factors. Censoring occurred if vaccinated children failed to receive a timely dose 2 or if unvaccinated children received any dose. Two COVID-19 outcome definitions were evaluated: COVID-19 diagnosis in any medical setting and COVID-19 diagnosis in hospitals/emergency departments (EDs). Propensity score-weighted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as 1 minus HR. VE was estimated overall, within age subgroups, and within variant-specific eras. Sensitivity, negative control, and quantitative bias analyses evaluated various potential biases. RESULTS: There were 453,655 eligible vaccinated children one-to-one matched to unvaccinated comparators (mean age 12 years; 50% female). COVID-19 hospitalizations/ED visits were rare in children, regardless of vaccination status (Optum, 41.2 per 10,000 person-years; CVS Health, 44.1 per 10,000 person-years). Overall, vaccination was associated with reduced incidence of any medically diagnosed COVID-19 (meta-analyzed VE = 38% [95% CI, 36-40%]) and hospital/ED-diagnosed COVID-19 (meta-analyzed VE = 61% [95% CI, 56-65%]). VE estimates were lowest among children 5-11 years and during the Omicron-variant era. CONCLUSIONS: Receipt of a complete BNT162b2 vaccine primary series was associated with overall reduced medically diagnosed COVID-19 and hospital/ED-diagnosed COVID-19 in children; observed VE estimates differed by age group and variant era. REGISTRATION: The study protocol was publicly posted on the BEST Initiative website ( https://bestinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/C19-VX-Effectiveness-Protocol_2022_508.pdf ).

Risk of myocarditis and pericarditis after the COVID-19 mRNA vaccination in the USA: a cohort study in claims databases.

BACKGROUND: Several passive surveillance systems reported increased risks of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, especially in young men. We used active surveillance from large health-care databases to quantify and enable the direct comparison of the risk of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, after mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccinations. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, examining the primary outcome of myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, identified using the International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes, occurring 1-7 days post-vaccination, evaluated in COVID-19 mRNA vaccinees aged 18-64 years using health plan claims databases in the USA. Observed (O) incidence rates were compared with expected (E) incidence rates estimated from historical cohorts by each database. We used multivariate Poisson regression to estimate the adjusted incidence rates, specific to each brand of vaccine, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2. We used meta-analyses to pool the adjusted incidence rates and IRRs across databases. FINDINGS: A total of 411 myocarditis or pericarditis, or both, events were observed among 15 148 369 people aged 18-64 years who received 16 912 716 doses of BNT162b2 and 10 631 554 doses of mRNA-1273. Among men aged 18-25 years, the pooled incidence rate was highest after the second dose, at 1·71 (95% CI 1·31 to 2·23) per 100 000 person-days for BNT162b2 and 2·17 (1·55 to 3·04) per 100 000 person-days for mRNA-1273. The pooled IRR in the head-to-head comparison of the two mRNA vaccines was 1·43 (95% CI 0·88 to 2·34), with an excess risk of 27·80 per million doses (-21·88 to 77·48) in mRNA-1273 recipients compared with BNT162b2. INTERPRETATION: An increased risk of myocarditis or pericarditis was observed after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and was highest in men aged 18-25 years after a second dose of the vaccine. However, the incidence was rare. These results do not indicate a statistically significant risk difference between mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, but it should not be ruled out that a difference might exist. Our study results, along with the benefit-risk profile, continue to support vaccination using either of the two mRNA vaccines. FUNDING: US Food and Drug Administration.

Delayed pregnancy detection and return to fertility with extended levonorgestrel-containing oral contraceptives: A real world setting cohort study.

PURPOSE: As part of the European risk management plan of a 91-day extended levonorgestrel-containing combined oral contraceptive (COCLNG ), a study was performed to assess its safety. This analysis was conducted to examine delayed pregnancy detection and return to fertility with extended combined oral contraceptives (COC). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in new users of 91-day COCLNG or 28-day COCLNG within a US-based healthcare claims database from 2006 to 2017. Delayed pregnancy detection during current COCLNG exposure was defined as the time between estimated pregnancy start and first prenatal care encounter. Additionally, the time between estimated pregnancy start and COCLNG discontinuation was measured. To measure return to fertility, pregnancy rates were estimated among females who discontinued treatment. 91-day COCLNG users were propensity score-matched to 28-day COCLNG users. Hazard ratio for pregnancy was calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The 91-day and 28-day COCLNG users had 25 593 and 76 586 treatment episodes, respectively. The median time to pregnancy detection was 64.5 and 61.0 days (p = 0.24) in users of 91-day COCLNG and 28-day COCLNG . The median exposure time to treatment after estimated pregnancy start was 54.0 and 38.0 days (p < 0.01). In the fertility analysis, pregnancy rates were 54.82 (95% CI, 50.05-59.93) and 69.30 (95% CI, 64.98-73.82) per 1000 person-years in extended COCLNG discontinuers and 28-day COCLNG discontinuers. The adjusted hazard ratio of pregnancy was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.69-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Small differences were observed for pregnancy rates and delayed pregnancy detection between 91-day extended COCLNG and 28-day COCLNG , which may be related to the longer days' supply of extended COCLNG . Differences in the fertility analysis may be related to unmeasured residual confounding.

Pragmatic guidance for embedding pragmatic clinical trials in health plans: Large simple trials aren't so simple.

BACKGROUND: There are unique opportunities related to the design and conduct of pragmatic trials embedded in health insurance plans, which have longitudinal data on member/patient demographics, dates of coverage, and reimbursed medical care, including prescription drug dispensings, vaccine administrations, behavioral healthcare encounters, and some laboratory results. Such trials can be large and efficient, using these data to identify trial-eligible patients and to ascertain outcomes. METHODS: We use our experience primarily with the National Institutes of Health Pragmatic Trials Collaboratory Distributed Research Network, which comprises health plans that participate in the US Food & Drug Administration's Sentinel System, to describe lessons learned from the conduct and planning of embedded pragmatic trials. RESULTS: Information is available for research on more than 75 million people with commercial or Medicare Advantage health plans. We describe three studies that have used or plan to use the Network, as well as a single health plan study, from which we glean our lessons learned. CONCLUSIONS: Studies that are conducted in health plans provide much-needed evidence to drive clinically meaningful changes in care. However, there are many unique aspects of these trials that must be considered in the planning, implementation, and analytic phases. The type of trial best suited for studies embedded in health plans will be those that require large sample sizes, simple interventions that could be disseminated through health plans, and where data available to the health plan can be leveraged. These trials hold potential for substantial long-term impact on our ability to generate evidence to improve care and population health.

Cervical High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesion Burden and Standard of Care Treatment Effectiveness and Safety in the United States, 2008-2018: The EACH-WOMAN Project.

OBJECTIVE: Management of cervical high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs), the immediate precursor of cervical cancer, consists largely of surgical treatment for women at higher risk for progression to cancer. The authors' objective was to describe the occurrence of cervical HSIL in the United States and various outcomes for women who received surgical treatment. METHODS: From a US commercial health insurer, a cohort of adult women with cervical HSIL diagnoses receiving surgical treatment within 3 months of diagnosis between January 2008 and September 2018 was identified. This cohort was followed for several outcomes, including cervical HSIL recurrence, human papillomavirus clearance, preterm birth, infection, and bleeding. RESULTS: The incidence rate of cervical HSIL declined from 2.34 (95% CI = 2.30-2.39) cases per 1,000 person-years in 2008 to 1.39 (95% CI = 1.35-1.43) cases per 1,000 person-years in 2014, remaining near that level through 2018. Among 65,527 women with cervical HSIL, 47,067 (72%) received surgical treatment within 3 months of diagnosis. Among the women receiving surgical treatment, cervical HSIL recurred in 6% of surgically treated women, whereas 45% of surgically treated women underwent subsequent virological testing that indicated human papillomavirus clearance. Preterm birth was observed in 5.9% by 5 years follow-up and bleeding and infection each at 2.2% by 7 days follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: From 2008 through 2018, the incidence of diagnosed cervical HSIL decreased for several years before stabilizing. Surgical treatment of HSIL may be beneficial in removing the precancerous lesion, but cervical HSIL may recur, and the surgery is associated with complications including preterm birth, infection, and bleeding.

Retrospective Observational Real-World Outcome Study to Evaluate Safety Among Patients With Erectile Dysfunction (ED) With Co-Possession of Tadalafil and Anti-Hypertensive Medications (anti-HTN).

BACKGROUND: Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a common condition affecting male adults and may be associated with hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and obesity. Phosphodiesterase type 5 (PDE5) inhibitors, such as tadalafil, are the first-line drug therapy for ED. Studies and the current prescribing information of these PDE5 inhibitors indicate they are mechanistic mild vasodilators and, as such, concomitant use of a PDE5 inhibitor with anti-hypertensive medication may lead to drops in blood pressure due to possible drug-drug interaction. AIM: Evaluate risks of hypotensive/cardiovascular outcomes in a large cohort of patients with ED that have co-possession of prescriptions for tadalafil and hypertensive medications versus either medication/s alone. METHODS: A cohort study conducted within an electronic health record database (Optum) representing hospitals across the US. Adult male patients prescribed tadalafil and/or anti-hypertensive medications from January 2012 to December 2017 were eligible. Possession periods were defined by the time patients likely had possession of medication, with propensity score-matched groups used for comparison. OUTCOMES: Risk of hypotensive/cardiovascular outcomes were measured using diagnostic codes and NLP algorithms during possession periods of tadalafil + anti-hypertensive versus either medication/s alone. RESULTS: In total there were 127,849 tadalafil + anti-hypertensive medication possession periods, 821,359 anti-hypertensive only medication possession periods, and 98,638 tadalafil only medication possession periods during the study; 126,120 were successfully matched. Adjusted-matched incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the anti-hypertensive only possession periods compared with tadalafil + anti-hypertensive periods of diagnosed outcomes were all below 1. Two outcomes had a 95% confidence interval (CI) that did not include 1.0: ventricular arrhythmia (IRR 0.79; 95% CI 0.66, 0.94) and diagnosis of hypotension (IRR 0.79; 95% CI 0.71, 0.89). CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Provides real world evidence that co-possession of tadalafil and anti-hypertensive medications does not increase risk of hypotensive/cardiovascular outcomes beyond that observed for patients in possession of anti-hypertensive medications only. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS: EHR data are valuable for the evaluation of real world outcomes, however, the data are retrospective and collected for clinical patient management rather than research. Prescription data represent the intent of the prescriber and not use by the patient. Residual bias cannot be ruled out, despite propensity score matching, due to unobserved patient characteristics and severity that are not fully reflected in the EHR database. CONCLUSION: In the studied real world patients, this study did not demonstrate an increased risk of hypotensive or cardiovascular outcomes associated with co-possession of tadalafil and anti-hypertensive medications beyond that observed for patients in possession of anti-hypertensive medications only. Nunes AP, Seeger JD, Stewart A, et al., Retrospective Observational Real-World Outcome Study to Evaluate Safety Among Patients With Erectile Dysfunction (ED) With Co-Possession of Tadalafil and Anti-Hypertensive Medications (anti-HTN). J Sex Med 2022;19:74-82.

Predictors of critical care, mechanical ventilation, and mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in an electronic health record database.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on risk factors for serious outcomes and death from COVID-19 among patients representative of the U.S. POPULATION: The objective of this study was to determine risk factors for critical care, ventilation, and death among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This was a cohort study using data from Optum's longitudinal COVID-19 electronic health record database derived from a network of healthcare provider organizations across the US. The study included patients with confirmed COVID-19 (presence of ICD-10-CM code U07.1 and/or positive SARS-CoV-2 test) between January 2020 and November 2020. Patient characteristics and clinical variables at start of hospitalization were evaluated for their association with subsequent serious outcomes (critical care, mechanical ventilation, and death) using odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression, adjusted for demographic variables. RESULTS: Among 56,996 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (49.5% male and 72.4% ≥ 50 years), 11,967 received critical care, 9136 received mechanical ventilation, and 8526 died. The median duration of hospitalization was 6 days (IQR: 4, 11), and this was longer among patients that experienced an outcome: 11 days (IQR: 6, 19) for critical care, 15 days (IQR: 8, 24) for mechanical ventilation, and 10 days (IQR: 5, 17) for death. Dyspnea and hypoxemia were the most prevalent symptoms and both were associated with serious outcomes in adjusted models. Additionally, temperature, C-reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer, and oxygen saturation measured during hospitalization were predictors of serious outcomes as were several in-hospital diagnoses. The strongest associations were observed for acute respiratory failure (critical care: OR, 6.30; 95% CI, 5.99-6.63; ventilation: OR, 8.55; 95% CI, 8.02-9.11; death: OR, 3.36; 95% CI, 3.17-3.55) and sepsis (critical care: OR, 4.59; 95% CI, 4.39-4.81; ventilation: OR, 5.26; 95% CI, 5.00-5.53; death: OR, 4.14; 95% CI, 3.92-4.38). Treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers during hospitalization were inversely associated with death (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.54-0.61). CONCLUSIONS: We identified several clinical characteristics associated with receipt of critical care, mechanical ventilation, and death among COVID-19 patients. Future studies into the mechanisms that lead to severe COVID-19 disease are warranted.

Identification of pregnancies and infants within a US commercial healthcare administrative claims database.

PURPOSE: Health care insurance claims databases are becoming a more common data source for studies of medication safety during pregnancy. While pregnancies have historically been identified in such databases by pregnancy outcomes, International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) Z3A codes denoting weeks of gestation provide more granular information on pregnancies and pregnancy periods (i.e., start and end dates). The purpose of this study was to develop a process that uses Z3A codes to identify pregnancies, pregnancy periods, and links infants within a commercial health insurance claims database. METHODS: We identified pregnancies, gestation periods, pregnancy outcomes, and linked infants within the US-based Optum Research Database between 2015 and 2020 via a series of algorithms utilizing diagnosis and procedure codes on claims. The diagnosis and procedure codes included ICD-10-CM codes, Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes, and Healthcare Common Procedure Coding System (HCPCS) codes. RESULTS: We identified 1 030 874 pregnancies among 841 196 women of reproductive age. Of pregnancies with livebirth outcomes, 84% were successfully linked to infants. The prevalence of pregnancy outcomes (livebirth, stillbirth, ectopic, molar, and abortion) was similar to national estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This process provides an opportunity to study drug safety and care patterns during pregnancy and may be replicated in other claims databases containing ICD-10-CM, CPT, and HCPCS codes. Work is underway to validate and refine the various algorithms.

Cardiovascular Outcome Risks in Patients With Erectile Dysfunction Co-Prescribed a Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitor (PDE5i) and a Nitrate: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Electronic Health Record Data in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors (PDE5i) are first-line therapy for erectile dysfunction (ED). Approximately 1-4% of PDE5i recipients co-possess nitrates, despite this combination potentially producing clinically significant hypotension. Real-world data in these patients and insights into prescriber rationales for co-prescription are limited. AIM: This study investigated whether PDE5i and nitrate co-possession is associated with increased rates of cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. METHODS: Adult males with ED and PDE5i prescription and males with nitrate prescription were identified from a U.S. electronic health record database (2012-2016). Quantitative comparisons were made between patients with ED and co-possession (ED + PDE5i + nitrate), only nitrate possession (ED + nitrate and nitrate only [without ED]), and only PDE5i possession (ED + PDE5i). OUTCOMES: We quantified incidence of CV outcomes in co-possession and comparator periods, calculating incidence rate ratios after propensity score matching. Prescriber rationales were derived by reviewing virtual patient records. RESULTS: Over 168,000 patients had ≥1 PDE5i prescription (∼241,000 possession periods); >480,000 patients had ≥1 nitrate prescription (∼486,000 possession periods); and 3,167 patients had 3,668 co-possession periods. Non-significantly different or lower rates of CV outcomes were observed for co-possession periods vs ED + nitrate and nitrate only periods. Most CV outcome rates were non-significantly different between co-possession and ED + PDE5i periods (myocardial infarction, hospitalized unstable angina and fainting were higher with co-possession). From qualitative assessment of patient records with co-possession, 131 of 252 (52%) documented discussion with a physician regarding co-possession; 69 of 131 (53%) warned or instructed on safely managing these contraindicated medications. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Findings from this real-world study indicate that co-possession of nitrate and PDE5i prescriptions is not associated with increased rates of CV outcomes, relative to possession of nitrates alone. Physicians should and often do discuss the risks of using both medications together with their patients. STRENGTHS & LIMITATIONS: Strengths of this study are the large size of the U.S. real-world patient cohort with data available for analysis, and our ability to utilize natural language processing to explore co-prescription rationales and patient-physician interactions. Limitations are the retrospective nature of the analysis and inability to establish whether recorded prescriptions were filled or the medication was consumed. CONCLUSION: Co-exposure of PDE5i and nitrates should continue to be avoided; however, co-possession of PDE5i and nitrate prescriptions is not necessarily associated with increased CV risk. Co-possession can be successfully managed in suitable circumstances. Nunes AP, Seeger JD, Stewart A, et al. Cardiovascular Outcome Risks in Patients With Erectile Dysfunction Co-Prescribed a Phosphodiesterase Type 5 Inhibitor (PDE5i) and a Nitrate: A Retrospective Observational Study Using Electronic Health Record Data in the United States. J Sex Med 2021;18:1511-1523.

Using RWE research to extend clinical trials in diabetes: An example with implications for the future.

BACKGROUND: Although randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) are seen as the gold standard for evidence in clinical medicine, a number of considerations are increasing the use of real-world data (RWD) to generate evidence. A series of methodological challenges must be overcome in order for such real-world evidence (RWE) to gain acceptance. In diabetes, RWE faces some particular issues that have limited its development. As the natural history of diabetes progresses, patients' disease changes over time and treatments will be modified as a result. This evolving disease and treatment pattern requires application of methods that account for such changes over time. Research developing RWE in diabetes and other conditions has sometimes been subject to important biases, and researchers should be aware of, and take steps to mitigate potential for bias in order to enhance the evidence produced. RESULTS: We review a RWE study that replicated and extended evidence provided by a RCT regarding the effects of weekly exenatide relative to basal insulin (glargine or detemir) to illustrate a potential application of RWE. This study observed a 0.7% decrease in HbA1C for weekly exenatide relative to a 0.5% decrease in HbA1C for the comparator along with a 2 kg weight loss for weekly exenatide relative to a 0.25 kg weight gain, effects that were close to those from the RCT. Further, the RWE study was able to extend results to patient populations that were not well represented in the RCT. CONCLUSION: Despite numerous challenges, RWE can be used to complement evidence from RCTs.

Methods for external control groups for single arm trials or long-term uncontrolled extensions to randomized clinical trials.

PURPOSE: Clinical trials compare outcomes among patients receiving study treatment with comparators drawn from the same source. These internal controls are missing in single arm trials and from long-term extensions (LTE) of trials including only the treatment arm. An external control group derived from a different setting is then required to assess safety or effectiveness. METHODS: We present examples of external control groups that demonstrate some of the issues that arise and make recommendations to address them through careful assessment of the data source fitness for use, design, and analysis steps. RESULTS: Inclusion and exclusion criteria and context that produce a trial population may result in trial patients with different clinical characteristics than are present in an external comparison group. If these differences affect the risk of outcomes, then a comparison of outcome occurrence will be confounded. Further, patients who continue into LTE may differ from those initially entering the trial due to treatment effects. Application of appropriate methods is needed to make valid inferences when such treatment or selection effects are present. Outcome measures in a trial may be ascertained and defined differently from what can be obtained in an external comparison group. Differences in sensitivity and specificity for identification or measurement of study outcomes leads to information bias that can also invalidate inferences. CONCLUSION: This review concentrates on threats to the valid use of external control groups both in the scenarios of single arm trials and LTE of randomized controlled trials, along with methodological approaches to mitigate them.

Risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and mortality in patients with migraine receiving prophylactic treatments: An observational cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: This study quantified risks of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and mortality events among patients with migraine receiving prophylaxis. METHODS: Patients with migraine aged 18-65 years were identified from 2010 through 2015 within a United States administrative claims database. Topiramate initiators during follow-up were propensity score-matched separately to anticonvulsant, cardiovascular treatment, antidepressant, and other prophylactic treatment initiators. Incident outcomes were identified, and hazard ratios were calculated comparing outcome occurrence among topiramate initiators relative to each comparator. A case-control analysis was nested within the full migraine cohort, and odds ratios quantified the association between outcomes and use or non-use of individual prophylactic treatments (anticonvulsants, serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, beta blockers, antihypertensives, tricyclic antidepressants, and other prophylactic treatments). RESULTS: The cohort included 119,243 patients with migraine. The matched topiramate initiators had a lower mortality risk versus antidepressant (hazard ratio: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.24, 0.83) and anticonvulsant initiators (hazard ratio: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.84). In the case-control analysis, increased risks of several outcomes were observed with all prophylactic treatments relative to non-use of that treatment (odds ratios range from 1.54 to 7.90, and 95% CIs exclude 1.0) except for topiramate and calcium channel blockers. CONCLUSIONS: Although increased risks for several outcomes were observed with certain prophylactic treatments, the treatments other than topiramate likely represent markers for outcome risk factors that developed or progressed after cohort entry, rather than being a direct effect of the treatments. Factors including migraine severity, frequency, and other treatment indications should be considered in future migraine prophylactic treatment safety assessments.

Glucose-lowering medications and the risk of cancer: A methodological review of studies based on real-world data.

AIM: To review the methodology of observational studies examining the association between glucose-lowering medications and cancer to identify the most common methodological challenges and sources of bias. METHODS: We searched PubMed systematically to identify observational studies on glucose-lowering medications and cancer published between January 2000 and January 2016. We assessed the design and analytical methods used in each study, with a focus on their ability to achieve study validity, and further evaluated the prevalence of major methodological choices over time. RESULTS: Of 155 studies evaluated, only 26% implemented a new-user design, 41% used an active comparator, 33% implemented a lag or latency period, and 51% adjusted for diabetes duration. Potential for immortal person-time bias was identified in 63% of the studies; 55% of the studies adjusted for variables measured during the follow-up without appropriate statistical methods. Aside from a decreasing trend in adjusting for variables measured during the follow-up, we observed no trends in methodological choices over time. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of well-known design and analysis flaws that may lead to biased results remains high among observational studies on glucose-lowering medications and cancer, limiting the conclusions that can be drawn from these studies. Avoiding known pitfalls could substantially improve the quality and validity of real-world evidence in this field.

Liraglutide use and evaluation of pancreatic outcomes in a US commercially insured population.

AIMS: Both acute pancreatitis (AP) and pancreatic cancer (PC) have been areas of focus for studies of incretin drugs. This 5-year prospective cohort study aimed to quantify possible associations between liraglutide and risk of AP and PC as compared to other antidiabetic drugs (ADs). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients initiating liraglutide or other ADs who were enrolled in a US health plan (2010-2014) were included. Comparisons of AP and PC incidence rates were made between matched cohorts of liraglutide initiators and initiators of other ADs. Adjudicated AP cases and algorithm-based PC cases were identified. Propensity score-matched intention-to-treat (ITT) and time-on-drug (TOD) analyses were completed using Poisson regression. A latency analysis was performed for PC. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 405 days for AP cohorts (9995 liraglutide, 1:1 matched to all comparators) and 503 days for PC cohorts (35 163 liraglutide, 1:1 matched to all comparators). In the primary AP analysis, "current" use of liraglutide was not significantly associated with elevated risk across comparators (all comparators relative risk [RR] = 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6-2.3). ITT results were similar where, in the primary analysis, no RRs were significantly associated with PC (all comparators RR = 0.7; 95% CI, 0.3-1.4); latency and TOD analyses did not alter findings. There was no evidence of a dose-response effect. CONCLUSIONS: Liraglutide was not associated with an increased risk of AP or PC, although risk estimates were more variable for AP, and numbers of cases for both outcomes were limited because of the rarity of outcomes.

Effectiveness and tolerability of therapy with exenatide once weekly vs basal insulin among injectable-drug-naïve elderly or renal impaired patients with type 2 diabetes in the United States.

AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness and tolerability of exenatide once weekly (EQW) compared with basal insulin (BI) among injectable-drug-naïve patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who are elderly or have renal impairment (RI). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Initiators of EQW and BI with T2DM were identified for the period 2012 to 2015 within a US electronic health record database and matched by propensity score. Matched EQW and BI initiators aged ≥65 years or who had RI were compared. Data on weight, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), blood pressure and lipids were obtained at baseline and quarterly (Q1-Q4) or semi-annually for 1 year after drug initiation. Hypoglycaemia and gastrointestinal symptoms were identified using diagnosis codes and data abstracted from clinical notes. RESULTS: Among patients aged ≥65 years, HbA1c changed by -0.50 and -0.31 percentage points from baseline to Q4 for EQW and BI initiators, respectively. Weight changed by -1.6 kg among EQW initiators compared with 0.2 kg among BI initiators. Compared with BI initiators, EQW initiators had a 1.45-fold increased risk of nausea and vomiting. Among patients with RI, HbA1c changed by -0.58 and -0.33 percentage points from baseline to Q4 for EQW and BI initiators, respectively. Weight changed by -1.9 kg for EQW initiators while BI initiators had no change in weight. EQW initiators had a 1.28-fold increased risk of constipation and diarrhoea compared with BI initiators. CONCLUSION: Regardless of age or renal function, the benefits of EQW relative to BI treatment are improved glycaemic control and increased weight loss, which should be weighed against the increased risk of gastrointestinal symptoms.

Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) for varenicline (Chantix): A multistage patient survey.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) for varenicline by assessing patients' understanding of the varenicline medication guide (MG) at pre-specified time points: 18 months, 3 years, and 7 years after the REMS approval. METHODS: Self-administered surveys were mailed to people who received varenicline based on a pharmacy dispensing. Survey questions assessed understanding of potential risks outlined in the MG: neuropsychiatric symptoms, skin reactions, allergic reactions, and cardiovascular risks. Crude and weighted analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The response to the survey overall was between 18% and 19%. Among responders, approximately 90% recalled receiving the MG, and at least 80% read all or part of it. At least 88% correctly identified neuropsychiatric symptoms as potential medication effects, while 41% did so for skin reactions, 53% for allergic reactions, and 82% for cardiovascular risks. Patients who read the MG had a high proportion of correct responses to the risk comprehension questions. CONCLUSIONS: A large majority of patients who were dispensed varenicline recalled receiving the MG and were able to correctly recall neuropsychiatric and cardiovascular risks in all 3 surveys. The varenicline MG may be an effective tool for patient education.

Effectiveness and Tolerability of Therapy With Once-Weekly Exenatide Versus Basal Insulin Among Injectable-Naive Patients With Type 2 Diabetes in a Real-World Setting in the United States.

A propensity-matched cohort study compared injectable-naive patients with type 2 diabetes initiating exenatide once weekly (EQW) or basal insulin (BI), from 2012 through 2015, within a U.S. electronic health record database. A1C and weight were obtained as observed or multiply imputed values at baseline and quarterly for 1 year (Q1-Q4). Hypoglycemia and gastrointestinal symptoms were identified using diagnostic codes and clinical notes. EQW (n = 2,008) and BI (n = 4,016) cohorts were comparable at baseline (mean A1C and weight: EQW, 8.3% and 107.5 kg, respectively; BI, 8.5% and 107.9 kg, respectively). A1C declined in Q2: -0.69 and -0.50 percentage points for EQW and BI, respectively, with little further change in year 1. The EQW cohort lost 0.9 kg in Q1 and 1.9 kg by the end of the year; no weight change was observed in the BI cohort. Among EQW and BI cohorts, 25.9% and 14.3% achieved both glycemic control and weight loss, respectively. In the EQW and BI cohorts, the incidence of hypoglycemia per 1,000 person-years was 52.5 and 65.7, respectively. The incidence of nausea was greater among EQW relative to BI initiators (relative rate 1.18). EQW offers an advantage compared to BI in achieving glycemic control and weight loss and a lower incidence of hypoglycemia, but is associated with greater risk of gastrointestinal symptoms.

Does knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis improve survival? The jury is still out.

BACKGROUND: The relation of knee replacement (KR) surgery to all-cause mortality has not been well established owing to potential biases in previous studies. Thus, we aimed to examine the relation of KR to mortality risk among patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) focusing on identifying biases that may threaten the validity of prior studies. METHODS: We included knee OA subjects (ages 50-89 years) from The Health Improvement Network, an electronic medical records database in the UK. Risk of mortality among KR subjects was compared with propensity score-matched non-KR subjects. To explore residual confounding bias, subgroup analyses stratified by age and propensity scores were performed. RESULTS: Subjects with KR had 28% lower risk of mortality than non-KR subjects (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78). However, when stratified by age, protective effect was noted only in older age groups (>63 years) but not in younger subjects (≤63 years). Further, the mortality rate among KR subjects decreased as candidacy (propensity score) for KR increased among subjects with KR, but no such consistent trend was noted among non-KR subjects. CONCLUSIONS: While a protective effect of KR on mortality cannot be ruled out, findings of lower mortality among older KR subjects and those with higher propensity scores suggest that prognosis-based selection for KR may lead to intractable confounding by indication; hence, the protective effect of KR on all-cause mortality may be overestimated.