Alarming signs in the Manchester triage system: a tool to identify febrile children at risk of hospitalization.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the flowcharts and discriminators of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) can be used as indicators of alarming signs of serious febrile illness to predict the risk of hospitalization for febrile children who present at the emergency department (ED). STUDY DESIGN: Observational study, which included 2455 children (<16 years) who came to the ED of a university hospital with fever as their main complaint (May 2007-July 2009). Alarming signs for serious febrile illness were matched with MTS flowcharts and discriminators. At triage, the percentage of alarming signs positive was calculated. The diagnostic ability of the percentage of alarming signs positive to identify children at risk of hospitalization was assessed by calculating positive and negative likelihood ratios. RESULTS: Thirty percent of children had at least 1 alarming sign positive at triage. Twenty-three percent were hospitalized. Positive likelihood ratios of hospitalization were 5.0 (95% CI: 3.9-6.5) for children with >20% of alarming signs positive at triage and 12.0 (95% CI: 5.2-27.6) for those with >40% of alarming signs positive. Negative likelihood ratios were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.8-0.8) and 1.0 (95% CI: 0.9-1.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: By alternatively using the flowcharts and discriminators of the MTS as alarming signs, rather than urgency classifiers, the MTS can function as a simple, readily available tool to identify febrile children at risk of hospitalization early in the care process. This knowledge may help to improve ED throughput times as well as admission and discharge management at pediatric EDs.

Performance of triage systems in emergency care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and compare the performance of triage systems for identifying high and low-urgency patients in the emergency department (ED). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: EMBASE, Medline OvidSP, Cochrane central, Web of science and CINAHL databases from 1980 to 2016 with the final update in December 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies that evaluated an emergency medical triage system, assessed validity using any reference standard as proxy for true patient urgency and were written in English. Studies conducted in low(er) income countries, based on case scenarios or involving less than 100 patients were excluded. REVIEW METHODS: Reviewers identified studies, extracted data and assessed the quality of the evidence independently and in duplicate. The Quality Assessment of studies of Diagnostic Accuracy included in Systematic Reviews -2 checklist was used to assess risk of bias. Raw data were extracted to create 2×2 tables and calculate sensitivity and specificity. ED patient volume and casemix severity of illness were investigated as determinants of triage systems' performance. RESULTS: Sixty-six eligible studies evaluated 33 different triage systems. Comparisons were restricted to the three triage systems that had at least multiple evaluations using the same reference standard (Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale, Emergency Severity Index and Manchester Triage System). Overall, validity of each triage system to identify high and low-urgency patients was moderate to good, but performance was highly variable. In a subgroup analysis, no clear association was found between ED patient volume or casemix severity of illness and triage systems' performance. CONCLUSIONS: Established triage systems show a reasonable validity for the triage of patients at the ED, but performance varies considerably. Important research questions that remain are what determinants influence triage systems' performance and how the performance of existing triage systems can be improved.

The role of nurses' clinical impression in the first assessment of children at the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic value and determinants of nurses' clinical impression for the recognition of children with a serious illness on presentation to the emergency department (ED). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a prospective cohort. SETTING AND PATIENTS: 6390 consecutive children <16 years of age presenting to a paediatric ED with a non-surgical chief complaint and complete data available. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Diagnostic accuracy of nurses' clinical impression for the prediction of serious illness, defined by intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital admission. Determinants of nurses' impression that a child appeared ill. RESULTS: Nurses considered a total of 1279 (20.0%) children appearing ill. Sensitivity of nurses' clinical impression for the recognition of patients requiring ICU admission was 0.70 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.76) and specificity was 0.81 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.82). Sensitivity for hospital admission was 0.48 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.51) and specificity was 0.88 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.88). When adjusted for age, gender, triage urgency and abnormal vital signs, nurses' impression remained significantly associated with ICU (OR 4.54; 95% CI 3.09 to 6.66) and hospital admission (OR 4.00; 95% CI 3.40 to 4.69). Ill appearance was positively associated with triage urgency, fever and abnormal vital signs and negatively with self-referral and presentation outside of office hours. CONCLUSION: The overall clinical impression of experienced nurses at the ED is on its own, not an accurate predictor of serious illness in children, but provides additional information above some well-established and objective predictors of illness severity.

Validity of the Manchester Triage System in emergency care: A prospective observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) in emergency care for the general population of patients attending the emergency department, for children and elderly, and for commonly used MTS flowcharts and discriminators across three different emergency care settings. METHODS: This was a prospective observational study in three European emergency departments. All consecutive patients attending the emergency department during a 1-year study period (2010-2012) were included. Validity of the MTS was assessed by comparing MTS urgency as determined by triage nurses with patient urgency according to a predefined 3-category reference standard as proxy for true patient urgency. RESULTS: 288,663 patients were included in the analysis. Sensitivity of the MTS in the three hospitals ranged from 0.47 (95%CI 0.44-0.49) to 0.87 (95%CI 0.85-0.90), and specificity from 0.84 (95%CI 0.84-0.84) to 0.94 (95%CI 0.94-0.94) for the triage of adult patients. In children, sensitivity ranged from 0.65 (95%CI 0.61-0.70) to 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.87), and specificity from 0.83 (95%CI 0.82-0.83) to 0.89 (95%CI 0.88-0.90). The diagnostic odds ratio ranged from 13.5 (95%CI 12.1-15.0) to 35.3 (95%CI 28.4-43.9) in adults and from 9.8 (95%CI 6.7-14.5) to 23.8 (95%CI 17.7-32.0) in children, and was lowest in the youngest patients in 2 out of 3 settings and in the oldest patients in all settings. Performance varied considerably between the different emergency departments. CONCLUSIONS: Validity of the MTS in emergency care is moderate to good, with lowest performance in the young and elderly patients. Future studies on the validity of triage systems should be restricted to large, multicenter studies to define modifications and improve generalizability of the findings.

Improving the Manchester Triage System for pediatric emergency care: an international multicenter study.

OBJECTIVES: This multicenter study examines the performance of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) after changing discriminators, and with the addition use of abnormal vital sign in patients presenting to pediatric emergency departments (EDs). DESIGN: International multicenter study. SETTINGS: EDs of two hospitals in The Netherlands (2006-2009), one in Portugal (November-December 2010), and one in UK (June-November 2010). PATIENTS: Children (<16 years) triaged with the MTS who presented at the ED. METHODS: Changes to discriminators (MTS 1) and the value of including abnormal vital signs (MTS 2) were studied to test if this would decrease the number of incorrect assignment. Admission to hospital using the new MTS was compared with those in the original MTS. Likelihood ratios, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and c-statistics were calculated as measures for performance and compared with the original MTS. To calculate likelihood ratios and DORs, the MTS had to be dichotomized in low urgent and high urgent. RESULTS: 60,375 patients were included, of whom 13% were admitted. When MTS 1 was used, admission to hospital increased from 25% to 29% for MTS 'very urgent' patients and remained similar in lower MTS urgency levels. The diagnostic odds ratio improved from 4.8 (95%CI 4.5-5.1) to 6.2 (95%CI 5.9-6.6) and the c-statistic remained 0.74. MTS 2 did not improve the performance of the MTS. CONCLUSIONS: MTS 1 performed slightly better than the original MTS. The use of vital signs (MTS 2) did not improve the MTS performance.

Validity of different pediatric early warning scores in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Pediatric early warning scores (PEWS) are being advocated for use in the emergency department (ED). The goal of this study was to compare the validity of different PEWS in a pediatric ED. METHODS: Ten different PEWS were evaluated in a large prospective cohort. We included children aged <16 years who had presented to the ED of a university hospital in The Netherlands (2009-2012). The validity of the PEWS for predicting ICU admission or hospitalization was expressed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: These PEWS were validated in 17 943 children. Two percent of these children were admitted to the ICU, and 16% were hospitalized. The areas under the ROC curves for predicting ICU admission, ranging from 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.62) to 0.82 (95% CI: 0.79-0.85), were moderate to good. The area under the ROC curves for predicting hospitalization was poor to moderate (range: 0.56 [95% CI: 0.55-0.58] to 0.68 [95% CI: 0.66-0.69]). The sensitivity and specificity derived from the ROC curves ranged widely for both ICU admission (sensitivity: 61.3%-94.4%; specificity: 25.2%-86.7%) and hospital admission (sensitivity: 36.4%-85.7%; specificity: 27.1%-90.5%). None of the PEWS had a high sensitivity as well as a high specificity. CONCLUSIONS: PEWS can be used to detect children presenting to the ED who are in need of an ICU admission. Scoring systems, wherein the parameters are summed to a numeric value, were better able to identify patients at risk than triggering systems, which need 1 positive parameter.

Accuracy of triage for children with chronic illness and infectious symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: This prospective observational study aimed to assess the validity of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) for children with chronic illnesses who presented to the emergency department (ED) with infectious symptoms. METHODS: Children (<16 years old) presenting to the ED of a university hospital between 2008 and 2011 with dyspnea, diarrhea/vomiting, or fever were included. Chronic illness was classified on the basis of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, codes. The validity of the MTS was assessed by comparing the urgency categories of the MTS with an independent reference standard on the basis of abnormal vital signs, life-threatening working diagnosis, resource utilization, and follow-up. Overtriage, undertriage, and correct triage were calculated for children with and without a chronic illness. The performance was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratios, which were calculated by dichotomizing the MTS into high and low urgency. RESULTS: Of the 8592 children who presented to the ED with infectious symptoms, 2960 (35%) had a chronic illness. Undertriage occurred in 16% of children with chronic illnesses and in 11% of children without chronic illnesses (P < .001). Sensitivity of the MTS for children with chronic illnesses was 58% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 53%-62%) and was 74% (95% CI: 70%-78%) for children without chronic illnesses. There was no difference in specificity between the 2 groups. The diagnostic odds ratios for children with and without chronic illnesses were 4.8 (95% CI: 3.9-5.9) and 8.7 (95% CI: 7.1-11), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In children presenting with infectious symptoms, the performance of the MTS was lower for children with chronic illnesses than for children without chronic illnesses. Nurses should be particularly aware of undertriage in children with chronic illnesses.

Self-referral and serious illness in children with fever.

OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to evaluate parents' capability to assess their febrile child's severity of illness and decision to present to the emergency department. We compared children referred by a general practitioner (GP) with those self-referred on the basis of illness-severity markers. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional observational study conducted at the emergency departments of a university and a teaching hospital. GP-referred or self-referred children with fever (aged <16 years) who presented to the emergency department (2006-2008) were included. Markers for severity of illness were urgency according to the Manchester Triage System, diagnostic interventions, therapeutic interventions, and follow-up. Associations between markers and referral type were assessed by using logistic regression analysis. Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with the most common presenting problems that accompanied the fever (ie, dyspnea, gastrointestinal complaints, neurologic symptoms, fever without specific symptoms). RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent of 4609 children were referred by their GP and 62% were self-referred. GP-referred children were classified as high urgency (immediate/very urgent categories) in 46% of the cases and self-referrals in 45%. Forty-three percent of GP referrals versus 27% of self-referrals needed extensive diagnostic intervention, intravenous medication/aerosol treatment, hospitalization, or a combination of these (odds ratio: 2.0 [95% confidence interval: 1.75-2.27]). In all subgroups, high urgency was not associated with referral type. GP-referred and self-referred children with dyspnea had similar frequencies of illness-severity markers. CONCLUSIONS: Although febrile self-referred children were less severely ill than GP-referred children, many parents properly judged and acted on the severity of their child's illness. To avoid delayed or missed diagnoses, recommendations regarding interventions that would discourage self-referral to the emergency department should be reconsidered.