Genetics of osteopontin in patients with chronic kidney disease: The German Chronic Kidney Disease study.

Osteopontin (OPN), encoded by SPP1, is a phosphorylated glycoprotein predominantly synthesized in kidney tissue. Increased OPN mRNA and protein expression correlates with proteinuria, reduced creatinine clearance, and kidney fibrosis in animal models of kidney disease. But its genetic underpinnings are incompletely understood. We therefore conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of OPN in a European chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. Using data from participants of the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study (N = 4,897), a GWAS (minor allele frequency [MAF]≥1%) and aggregated variant testing (AVT, MAF<1%) of ELISA-quantified serum OPN, adjusted for age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) was conducted. In the project, GCKD participants had a mean age of 60 years (SD 12), median eGFR of 46 mL/min/1.73m2 (p25: 37, p75: 57) and median UACR of 50 mg/g (p25: 9, p75: 383). GWAS revealed 3 loci (p<5.0E-08), two of which replicated in the population-based Young Finns Study (YFS) cohort (p<1.67E-03): rs10011284, upstream of SPP1 encoding the OPN protein and related to OPN production, and rs4253311, mapping into KLKB1 encoding prekallikrein (PK), which is processed to kallikrein (KAL) implicated through the kinin-kallikrein system (KKS) in blood pressure control, inflammation, blood coagulation, cancer, and cardiovascular disease. The SPP1 gene was also identified by AVT (p = 2.5E-8), comprising 7 splice-site and missense variants. Among others, downstream analyses revealed colocalization of the OPN association signal at SPP1 with expression in pancreas tissue, and at KLKB1 with various plasma proteins in trans, and with phenotypes (bone disorder, deep venous thrombosis) in human tissue. In summary, this GWAS of OPN levels revealed two replicated associations. The KLKB1 locus connects the function of OPN with PK, suggestive of possible further post-translation processing of OPN. Further studies are needed to elucidate the complex role of OPN within human (patho)physiology.

Associations of Urine and Plasma Metabolites with Kidney Failure and Death in a CKD Cohort.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Biomarkers that enable better identification of persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are at higher risk for disease progression and adverse events are needed. This study sought to identify urine and plasma metabolites associated with progression of kidney disease. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective metabolome-wide association study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Persons with CKD enrolled in the German CKD Study (GCKD) with metabolite measurements; with external validation within the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. EXPOSURES: 1,513 urine and 1,416 plasma metabolites (Metabolon, Inc.) measured at study entry using untargeted mass spectrometry. OUTCOMES: Main endpoints were kidney failure (KF), and a composite endpoint of KF, eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73m2, or 40% decline in eGFR (CKE). Death from any cause was a secondary endpoint. After a median of 6.5 years follow-up, 500 persons experienced KF, 1,083 experienced CKE and 680 died. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Time-to-event analyses using multivariable proportional hazard regression models in a discovery-replication design, with external validation. RESULTS: 5,088 GCKD participants were included in analyses of urine metabolites and 5,144 in analyses of plasma metabolites. Among 182 unique metabolites, 30 were significantly associated with KF, 49 with CKE, and 163 with death. The strongest association with KF was observed for plasma hydroxyasparagine (hazard ratio: 1.95, 95% confidence interval: 1.68-2.25). An unnamed metabolite measured in plasma and urine was significantly associated with KF, CKE, and death. External validation of the identified associations of metabolites with KF or CKE revealed direction-consistency for 88% of observed associations. Selected associations of 18 metabolites with study outcomes have not been previously reported. LIMITATIONS: Use of observational data and semi-quantitative metabolite measurements at a single time point. CONCLUSIONS: The observed associations between metabolites and KF, CKE or death in persons with CKD confirmed previously reported findings and also revealed several associations not previously described. These findings warrant confirmatory research in other study cohorts.

Association of osteopontin with kidney function and kidney failure in chronic kidney disease patients: the GCKD study.

BACKGROUND: Osteopontin (OPN), synthesized in the thick ascending limb of Henle's loop and in the distal tubule, is involved in the pathogenesis of kidney fibrosis, a hallmark of kidney failure (KF). In a cohort of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, we evaluated OPN's association with kidney markers and KF. METHODS: OPN was measured from baseline serum samples of German Chronic Kidney Disease study participants. Cross-sectional regression models for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) as well as Cox regression models for all-cause mortality and KF were evaluated to estimate the OPN effect. Additionally, the predictive ability of OPN and time-dependent population-attributable fraction were evaluated. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 6.5 years, 471 KF events and 629 deaths occurred among 4950 CKD patients. One-unit higher log(OPN) was associated with 5.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -6.4 to -4.6] and 1% change in OPN with 0.7% higher UACR (estimated effect 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.8). Moreover, higher OPN levels were associated with a higher risk of KF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7] and all-cause mortality (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3-1.8). After 6 years, 31% of the KF events could be attributed to higher OPN levels (95% CI 3%-56%). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, higher OPN levels were associated with kidney function markers worsening and a higher risk for adverse outcomes. A larger proportion of KF could be attributed to higher OPN levels, warranting further research on OPN with regards to its role in CKD progression and possible treatment options.

Uromodulin and its association with urinary metabolites: the German Chronic Kidney Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: The progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD), a global public health burden, is accompanied by a declining number of functional nephrons. Estimation of remaining nephron mass may improve assessment of CKD progression. Uromodulin has been suggested as a marker of tubular mass. We aimed to identify metabolites associated with uromodulin concentrations in urine and serum to characterize pathophysiologic alterations of metabolic pathways to generate new hypotheses regarding CKD pathophysiology. METHODS: We measured urinary and serum uromodulin levels (uUMOD, sUMOD) and 607 urinary metabolites and performed cross-sectional analyses within the German Chronic Kidney Disease study (N = 4628), a prospective observational study. Urinary metabolites significantly associated with uUMOD and sUMOD were used to build weighted metabolite scores for urine (uMS) and serum uromodulin (sMS) and evaluated for time to adverse kidney events over 6.5 years. RESULTS: Metabolites cross-sectionally associated with uromodulin included amino acids of the tryptophan metabolism, lipids and nucleotides. Higher levels of the sMS [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.64; 0.82), P = 7.45e-07] and sUMOD [HR = 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.63; 0.87), P = 2.32e-04] were associated with a lower risk of adverse kidney events over time, whereas uUMOD and uMS showed the same direction of association but were not significant. CONCLUSIONS: We identified urinary metabolites associated with urinary and serum uromodulin. The sUMOD and the sMS were associated with lower risk of adverse kidney events among CKD patients. Higher levels of sUMOD and sMS may reflect a higher number of functional nephrons and therefore a reduced risk of adverse kidney outcomes.

pgainsim: an R-package to assess the mode of inheritance for quantitative trait loci in GWAS.

MOTIVATION: When performing genome-wide association studies conventionally the additive genetic model is used to explore whether a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is associated with a quantitative trait. But for variants, which do not follow an intermediate mode of inheritance (MOI), the recessive or the dominant genetic model can have more power to detect associations and furthermore the MOI is important for downstream analyses and clinical interpretation. When multiple MOIs are modelled the question arises, which describes the true underlying MOI best. RESULTS: We developed an R-package allowing for the first time to determine study specific critical values when one of the three models is more informative than the other ones for a quantitative trait locus. The package allows for user-friendly simulations to determine these critical values with predefined minor allele frequencies and study sizes. For application scenarios with extensive multiple testing we integrated an interpolation functionality to determine critical values already based on a moderate number of random draws. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The R-package pgainsim is freely available for download on Github at https://github.com/genepi-freiburg/pgainsim. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

A Predictive Model for Progression of CKD to Kidney Failure Based on Routine Laboratory Tests.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Stratification of chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients at risk for progressing to kidney failure requiring kidney replacement therapy (KFRT) is important for clinical decision-making and trial enrollment. STUDY DESIGN: Four independent prospective observational cohort studies. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: The development cohort comprised 4,915 CKD patients, and 3 independent validation cohorts comprised a total of 3,063. Patients were observed for approximately 5 years. EXPOSURE: 22 demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory variables commonly assessed in CKD patients. OUTCOME: Progression to KFRT. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox proportional hazards model was fit to select laboratory variables that best identified patients at high risk for KFRT. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed and compared against the 4-variable Tangri (T4) risk equation both in a resampling approach within the development cohort and in the validation cohorts using cause-specific concordance (C) statistics, net reclassification improvement, and calibration graphs. RESULTS: The newly derived 6-variable risk score (Z6) included serum creatinine, albumin, cystatin C, and urea, as well as hemoglobin and the urinary albumin-creatinine ratio. In the the resampling approach, Z6 achieved a median C statistic of 0.909 (95% CI, 0.868-0.937) at 2 years after the baseline visit, whereas the T4 achieved a median C statistic of 0.855 (95% CI, 0.799-0.915). In the 3 independent validation cohorts, the Z6C statistics were 0.894, 0.921, and 0.891, whereas the T4C statistics were 0.882, 0.913, and 0.862. LIMITATIONS: The Z6 was both derived and tested only in White European cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A new risk equation based on 6 routinely available laboratory tests facilitates identification of patients with CKD who are at high risk of progressing to KFRT.

Self-Reported Medication Use and Urinary Drug Metabolites in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) Study.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy is common among patients with CKD, but little is known about the urinary excretion of many drugs and their metabolites among patients with CKD. METHODS: To evaluate self-reported medication use in relation to urine drug metabolite levels in a large cohort of patients with CKD, the German Chronic Kidney Disease study, we ascertained self-reported use of 158 substances and 41 medication groups, and coded active ingredients according to the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical Classification System. We used a nontargeted mass spectrometry-based approach to quantify metabolites in urine; calculated specificity, sensitivity, and accuracy of medication use and corresponding metabolite measurements; and used multivariable regression models to evaluate associations and prescription patterns. RESULTS: Among 4885 participants, there were 108 medication-drug metabolite pairs on the basis of reported medication use and 78 drug metabolites. Accuracy was excellent for measurements of 36 individual substances in which the unchanged drug was measured in urine (median, 98.5%; range, 61.1%-100%). For 66 pairs of substances and their related drug metabolites, median measurement-based specificity and sensitivity were 99.2% (range, 84.0%-100%) and 71.7% (range, 1.2%-100%), respectively. Commonly prescribed medications for hypertension and cardiovascular risk reduction-including angiotensin II receptor blockers, calcium channel blockers, and metoprolol-showed high sensitivity and specificity. Although self-reported use of prescribed analgesics (acetaminophen, ibuprofen) was <3% each, drug metabolite levels indicated higher usage (acetaminophen, 10%-26%; ibuprofen, 10%-18%). CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive screen of associations between urine drug metabolite levels and self-reported medication use supports the use of pharmacometabolomics to assess medication adherence and prescription patterns in persons with CKD, and indicates under-reported use of medications available over the counter, such as analgesics.

Urine Metabolite Levels, Adverse Kidney Outcomes, and Mortality in CKD Patients: A Metabolome-wide Association Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Mechanisms underlying the variable course of disease progression in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to identify novel biomarkers of adverse kidney outcomes and overall mortality, which may offer insights into pathophysiologic mechanisms. STUDY DESIGN: Metabolome-wide association study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 5,087 patients with CKD enrolled in the observational German Chronic Kidney Disease Study. EXPOSURES: Measurements of 1,487 metabolites in urine. OUTCOMES: End points of interest were time to kidney failure (KF), a combined end point of KF and acute kidney injury (KF+AKI), and overall mortality. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Statistical analysis was based on a discovery-replication design (ratio 2:1) and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 4 years, 362 patients died, 241 experienced KF, and 382 experienced KF+AKI. Overall, we identified 55 urine metabolites whose levels were significantly associated with adverse kidney outcomes and/or mortality. Higher levels of C-glycosyltryptophan were consistently associated with all 3 main end points (hazard ratios of 1.43 [95% CI, 1.27-1.61] for KF, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.27-1.55] for KF+AKI, and 1.47 [95% CI, 1.33-1.63] for death). Metabolites belonging to the phosphatidylcholine pathway showed significant enrichment. Members of this pathway contributed to the improvement of the prediction performance for KF observed when multiple metabolites were added to the well-established Kidney Failure Risk Equation. LIMITATIONS: Findings among patients of European ancestry with CKD may not be generalizable to the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Our comprehensive screen of the association between urine metabolite levels and adverse kidney outcomes and mortality identifies metabolites that predict KF and represents a valuable resource for future studies of biomarkers of CKD progression.

A Novel Metabolic Signature To Predict the Requirement of Dialysis or Renal Transplantation in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease.

Identification of chronic kidney disease patients at risk of progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is essential for treatment decision-making and clinical trial design. Here, we explored whether proton nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy of blood plasma improves the currently best performing kidney failure risk equation, the so-called Tangri score. Our study cohort comprised 4640 participants from the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study, of whom 185 (3.99%) progressed over a mean observation time of 3.70 ± 0.88 years to ESRD requiring either dialysis or transplantation. The original four-variable Tangri risk equation yielded a C statistic of 0.863 (95% CI, 0.831-0.900). Upon inclusion of NMR features by state-of-the-art machine learning methods, the C statistic improved to 0.875 (95% CI, 0.850-0.911), thereby outperforming the Tangri score in 94 out of 100 subsampling rounds. Of the 24 NMR features included in the model, creatinine, high-density lipoprotein, valine, acetyl groups of glycoproteins, and Ca2+-EDTA carried the highest weights. In conclusion, proton NMR-based plasma fingerprinting improved markedly the detection of patients at risk of developing ESRD, thus enabling enhanced patient treatment.

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Metabolites in Patients with CKD Identify Multiple Loci and Illuminate Tubular Transport Mechanisms.

Background The kidneys have a central role in the generation, turnover, transport, and excretion of metabolites, and these functions can be altered in CKD. Genetic studies of metabolite concentrations can identify proteins performing these functions.Methods We conducted genome-wide association studies and aggregate rare variant tests of the concentrations of 139 serum metabolites and 41 urine metabolites, as well as their pairwise ratios and fractional excretions in up to 1168 patients with CKD.Results After correction for multiple testing, genome-wide significant associations were detected for 25 serum metabolites, two urine metabolites, and 259 serum and 14 urinary metabolite ratios. These included associations already known from population-based studies. Additional findings included an association for the uremic toxin putrescine and variants upstream of an enzyme catalyzing the oxidative deamination of polyamines (AOC1, P-min=2.4×10-12), a relatively high carrier frequency (2%) for rare deleterious missense variants in ACADM that are collectively associated with serum ratios of medium-chain acylcarnitines (P-burden=6.6×10-16), and associations of a common variant in SLC7A9 with several ratios of lysine to neutral amino acids in urine, including the lysine/glutamine ratio (P=2.2×10-23). The associations of this SLC7A9 variant with ratios of lysine to specific neutral amino acids were much stronger than the association with lysine concentration alone. This finding is consistent with SLC7A9 functioning as an exchanger of urinary cationic amino acids against specific intracellular neutral amino acids at the apical membrane of proximal tubular cells.Conclusions Metabolomic indices of specific kidney functions in genetic studies may provide insight into human renal physiology.

Control procedures and estimators of the false discovery rate and their application in low-dimensional settings: an empirical investigation.

BACKGROUND: When many (up to millions) of statistical tests are conducted in discovery set analyses such as genome-wide association studies (GWAS), approaches controlling family-wise error rate (FWER) or false discovery rate (FDR) are required to reduce the number of false positive decisions. Some methods were specifically developed in the context of high-dimensional settings and partially rely on the estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses. However, these approaches are also applied in low-dimensional settings such as replication set analyses that might be restricted to a small number of specific hypotheses. The aim of this study was to compare different approaches in low-dimensional settings using (a) real data from the CKDGen Consortium and (b) a simulation study. RESULTS: In both application and simulation FWER approaches were less powerful compared to FDR control methods, whether a larger number of hypotheses were tested or not. Most powerful was the q-value method. However, the specificity of this method to maintain true null hypotheses was especially decreased when the number of tested hypotheses was small. In this low-dimensional situation, estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses was biased. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of a sizeable data set for a reliable estimation of the proportion of true null hypotheses. Consequently, methods relying on this estimation should only be applied in high-dimensional settings. Furthermore, if the focus lies on testing of a small number of hypotheses such as in replication settings, FWER methods rather than FDR methods should be preferred to maintain high specificity.

NFAT5 and SLC4A10 Loci Associate with Plasma Osmolality.

Disorders of water balance, an excess or deficit of total body water relative to body electrolyte content, are common and ascertained by plasma hypo- or hypernatremia, respectively. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study meta-analysis on plasma sodium concentration in 45,889 individuals of European descent (stage 1 discovery) and 17,637 additional individuals of European descent (stage 2 replication), and a transethnic meta-analysis of replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 79,506 individuals (63,526 individuals of European descent, 8765 individuals of Asian Indian descent, and 7215 individuals of African descent). In stage 1, we identified eight loci associated with plasma sodium concentration at P<5.0 × 10-6 Of these, rs9980 at NFAT5 replicated in stage 2 meta-analysis (P=3.1 × 10-5), with combined stages 1 and 2 genome-wide significance of P=5.6 × 10-10 Transethnic meta-analysis further supported the association at rs9980 (P=5.9 × 10-12). Additionally, rs16846053 at SLC4A10 showed nominally, but not genome-wide, significant association in combined stages 1 and 2 meta-analysis (P=6.7 × 10-8). NFAT5 encodes a ubiquitously expressed transcription factor that coordinates the intracellular response to hypertonic stress but was not previously implicated in the regulation of systemic water balance. SLC4A10 encodes a sodium bicarbonate transporter with a brain-restricted expression pattern, and variant rs16846053 affects a putative intronic NFAT5 DNA binding motif. The lead variants for NFAT5 and SLC4A10 are cis expression quantitative trait loci in tissues of the central nervous system and relevant to transcriptional regulation. Thus, genetic variation in NFAT5 and SLC4A10 expression and function in the central nervous system may affect the regulation of systemic water balance.

Genetic risk variants for membranous nephropathy: extension of and association with other chronic kidney disease aetiologies.

Background: Membranous nephropathy (MN) is a common cause of nephrotic syndrome in adults. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of 300 000 genotyped variants identified MN-associated loci at HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1. Methods: We used a combined approach of genotype imputation, GWAS, human leucocyte antigen (HLA) imputation and extension to other aetiologies of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to investigate genetic MN risk variants more comprehensively. GWAS using 9 million high-quality imputed genotypes and classical HLA alleles were conducted for 323 MN European-ancestry cases and 345 controls. Additionally, 4960 patients with different CKD aetiologies in the German Chronic Kidney Disease (GCKD) study were genotyped for risk variants at HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1. Results: In GWAS, lead variants in known loci [rs9272729, HLA-DQA1, odds ratio (OR) = 7.3 per risk allele, P = 5.9 × 10-27 and rs17830558, PLA2R1, OR = 2.2, P = 1.9 × 10-8] were significantly associated with MN. No novel signals emerged in GWAS of X-chromosomal variants or in sex-specific analyses. Classical HLA alleles (DRB1*0301-DQA1*0501-DQB1*0201 haplotype) were associated with MN but provided little additional information beyond rs9272729. Associations were replicated in 137 GCKD patients with MN (HLA-DQA1: P = 6.4 × 10-24; PLA2R1: P = 5.0 × 10-4). MN risk increased steeply for patients with high-risk genotype combinations (OR > 79). While genetic variation in PLA2R1 exclusively associated with MN across 19 CKD aetiologies, the HLA-DQA1 risk allele was also associated with lupus nephritis (P = 2.8 × 10-6), type 1 diabetic nephropathy (P = 6.9 × 10-5) and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (P = 5.1 × 10-5), but not with immunoglobulin A nephropathy. Conclusions: PLA2R1 and HLA-DQA1 are the predominant risk loci for MN detected by GWAS. While HLA-DQA1 risk variants show an association with other CKD aetiologies, PLA2R1 variants are specific to MN.

Mendelian Randomization as an Approach to Assess Causality Using Observational Data.

Mendelian randomization refers to an analytic approach to assess the causality of an observed association between a modifiable exposure or risk factor and a clinically relevant outcome. It presents a valuable tool, especially when randomized controlled trials to examine causality are not feasible and observational studies provide biased associations because of confounding or reverse causality. These issues are addressed by using genetic variants as instrumental variables for the tested exposure: the alleles of this exposure-associated genetic variant are randomly allocated and not subject to reverse causation. This, together with the wide availability of published genetic associations to screen for suitable genetic instrumental variables make Mendelian randomization a time- and cost-efficient approach and contribute to its increasing popularity for assessing and screening for potentially causal associations. An observed association between the genetic instrumental variable and the outcome supports the hypothesis that the exposure in question is causally related to the outcome. This review provides an overview of the Mendelian randomization method, addresses assumptions and implications, and includes illustrative examples. We also discuss special issues in nephrology, such as inverse risk factor associations in advanced disease, and outline opportunities to design Mendelian randomization studies around kidney function and disease.

A Metabolome-Wide Association Study of Kidney Function and Disease in the General Population.

Small molecules are extensively metabolized and cleared by the kidney. Changes in serum metabolite concentrations may result from impaired kidney function and can be used to estimate filtration (e.g., the established marker creatinine) or may precede and potentially contribute to CKD development. Here, we applied a nontargeted metabolomics approach using gas and liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry to quantify 493 small molecules in human serum. The associations of these molecules with GFR estimated on the basis of creatinine (eGFRcr) and cystatin C levels were assessed in ≤1735 participants in the KORA F4 study, followed by replication in 1164 individuals in the TwinsUK registry. After correction for multiple testing, 54 replicated metabolites significantly associated with eGFRcr, and six of these showed pairwise correlation (r≥0.50) with established kidney function measures: C-mannosyltryptophan, pseudouridine, N-acetylalanine, erythronate, myo-inositol, and N-acetylcarnosine. Higher C-mannosyltryptophan, pseudouridine, and O-sulfo-L-tyrosine concentrations associated with incident CKD (eGFRcr <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) in the KORA F4 study. In contrast with serum creatinine, C-mannosyltryptophan and pseudouridine concentrations showed little dependence on sex. Furthermore, correlation with measured GFR in 200 participants in the AASK study was 0.78 for both C-mannosyltryptophan and pseudouridine concentration, and highly significant associations of both metabolites with incident ESRD disappeared upon adjustment for measured GFR. Thus, these molecules may be alternative or complementary markers of kidney function. In conclusion, our study provides a comprehensive list of kidney function-associated metabolites and highlights potential novel filtration markers that may help to improve the estimation of GFR.

The case-crossover design via penalized regression.

BACKGROUND: The case-crossover design is an attractive alternative to the classical case-control design which can be used to study the onset of acute events if the risk factors of interest vary in time. By comparing exposures within cases at different time periods, the case-crossover design does not rely on control subjects which can be difficult to acquire. However, using the standard method of maximum likelihood, resulting risk estimates can be heavily biased when the prevalence to risk factors is very low (or very high). METHODS: To overcome the problem of low risk factor prevalences, penalized conditional logistic regression via the lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) has been proposed in the literature as well as related methods such as the Firth correction. We apply and compare several penalized regression approaches in the context of a case-crossover analysis of the European Study of Severe Cutaneous Adverse Reactions (EuroSCAR; 1997-2001). RESULTS: Out of 30 drugs, standard methods only correctly classified 17 drugs (including some highly implausible risk estimates), while penalized methods correctly classified 22 drugs. CONCLUSION: Penalized methods generally yield better risk classifications and much more plausible risk estimates for the EuroSCAR study than standard methods. As these novel techniques can be easily implemented using available R packages, we encourage routine use of penalized conditional logistic regression for case-crossover data.

Assessment of the "case-chaos" design as an adjunct to the case-control design.

In 2012, a novel case series method dubbed the "case-chaos" design was proposed as an alternative to case-control studies, whereby controls are artificially created by permutating the exposure information of the cases. Our aim in the current work was to further evaluate the case-chaos method. Using a theoretical example of 2 risk factors, we demonstrated that the case-chaos design yields risk estimations for which the odds ratios obtained for every risk factor are in the same ascending order as the risk factors' exposure prevalences in the case group. Applying the method to data from the European Study of Severe Cutaneous Adverse Reactions (EuroSCAR; 1997-2001), we were not able to obtain sensible results but instead produced results as predicted by our theoretical assessment. We therefore claim that the method is equivalent to declaring risk solely on the basis of prevalences obtained in cases. While the proposers of the case-chaos method view it as a useful adjunct, we show that it cannot produce sensible estimates.