Fortnightly modulation of San Andreas tremor and low-frequency earthquakes.

Earth tides modulate tremor and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) on faults in the vicinity of the brittle-ductile (seismic-aseismic) transition. The response to the tidal stress carries otherwise inaccessible information about fault strength and rheology. Here, we analyze the LFE response to the fortnightly tide, which modulates the amplitude of the daily tidal stress over a 14-d cycle. LFE rate is highest during the waxing fortnightly tide, with LFEs most strongly promoted when the daily stress exceeds the previous peak stress by the widest margin. This pattern implies a threshold failure process, with slip initiated when stress exceeds the local fault strength. Variations in sensitivity to the fortnightly modulation may reflect the degree of stress concentration on LFE-producing brittle asperities embedded within an otherwise aseismic fault.

Migrating tremors illuminate complex deformation beneath the seismogenic San Andreas fault.

The San Andreas fault is one of the most extensively studied faults in the world, yet its physical character and deformation mode beneath the relatively shallow earthquake-generating portion remain largely unconstrained. Tectonic 'non-volcanic' tremor, a recently discovered seismic signal probably generated by shear slip on the deep extension of some major faults, can provide new insight into the deep fate of such faults, including that of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. Here I examine continuous seismic data from mid-2001 to 2008, identifying tremor and decomposing the signal into different families of activity based on the shape and timing of the waveforms at multiple stations. This approach allows differentiation between activities from nearby patches of the deep fault and begins to unveil rich and complex patterns of tremor occurrence. I find that tremor exhibits nearly continuous migration, with the most extensive episodes propagating more than 20 kilometres along fault strike at rates of 15-80 kilometres per hour. This suggests that the San Andreas fault remains a localized through-going structure, at least to the base of the crust, in this area. Tremor rates and recurrence behaviour changed markedly in the wake of the 2004 magnitude-6.0 Parkfield earthquake, but these changes were far from uniform within the tremor zone, probably reflecting heterogeneous fault properties and static and dynamic stresses decaying away from the rupture. The systematic recurrence of tremor demonstrated here suggests the potential to monitor detailed time-varying deformation on this portion of the deep San Andreas fault, deformation which unsteadily loads the shallower zone that last ruptured in the 1857 magnitude-7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake.

Subduction intraslab-interface fault interactions in the 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California, earthquake sequence.

The Mendocino triple junction-the intersection of the Pacific, North American, and Gorda plates-activates a collection of disparate faults that reconcile Cascadia subduction with San Andreas transform motion. The 20 December 2022 Mw 6.4 Ferndale, California, earthquake occurred within this complex zone as strike-slip faulting within the subducting Gorda slab. Here, we analyze the seismic and geodetic signatures of the mainshock and aftershock sequence to illuminate its role within complex tectonic surroundings. We find aftershocks on varied fault structures within the uppermost Gorda slab, yet seismicity on the subduction interface itself was notably absent. Nevertheless, we identify small but coherent postseismic deformation that is well modeled by aseismic slip on this interface, likely triggered by stresses generated at the updip limit of coseismic rupture. This sequence demonstrates the potential for interactions between intra-slab earthquakes and slip on the subduction megathrust, highlighting the need to consider this and other subduction zones as coupled systems of interacting faults.

Non-volcanic tremor and low-frequency earthquake swarms.

Non-volcanic tremor is a weak, extended duration seismic signal observed episodically on some major faults, often in conjunction with slow slip events. Such tremor may hold the key to understanding fundamental processes at the deep roots of faults, and could signal times of accelerated slip and hence increased seismic hazard. The mechanism underlying the generation of tremor and its relationship to aseismic slip are, however, as yet unresolved. Here we demonstrate that tremor beneath Shikoku, Japan, can be explained as a swarm of small, low-frequency earthquakes, each of which occurs as shear faulting on the subduction-zone plate interface. This suggests that tremor and slow slip are different manifestations of a single process.

A scaling law for slow earthquakes.

Recently, a series of unusual earthquake phenomena have been discovered, including deep episodic tremor, low-frequency earthquakes, very-low-frequency earthquakes, slow slip events and silent earthquakes. Each of these has been demonstrated to arise from shear slip, just as do regular earthquakes, but with longer characteristic durations and radiating much less seismic energy. Here we show that these slow events follow a simple, unified scaling relationship that clearly differentiates their behaviour from that of regular earthquakes. We find that their seismic moment is proportional to the characteristic duration and their moment rate function is constant, with a spectral high-frequency decay of f(-1). This scaling and spectral behaviour demonstrates that they can be thought of as different manifestations of the same phenomena and that they comprise a new earthquake category. The observed scale dependence of rupture velocity for these events can be explained by either a constant low-stress drop model or a diffusional constant-slip model. This new scaling law unifies a diverse class of slow seismic events and may lead to a better understanding of the plate subduction process and large earthquake generation.

Low-frequency earthquakes in Shikoku, Japan, and their relationship to episodic tremor and slip.

Non-volcanic seismic tremor was discovered in the Nankai trough subduction zone in southwest Japan and subsequently identified in the Cascadia subduction zone. In both locations, tremor is observed to coincide temporally with large, slow slip events on the plate interface downdip of the seismogenic zone. The relationship between tremor and aseismic slip remains uncertain, however, largely owing to difficulty in constraining the source depth of tremor. In southwest Japan, a high quality borehole seismic network allows identification of coherent S-wave (and sometimes P-wave) arrivals within the tremor, whose sources are classified as low-frequency earthquakes. As low-frequency earthquakes comprise at least a portion of tremor, understanding their mechanism is critical to understanding tremor as a whole. Here, we provide strong evidence that these earthquakes occur on the plate interface, coincident with the inferred zone of slow slip. The locations and characteristics of these events suggest that they are generated by shear slip during otherwise aseismic transients, rather than by fluid flow. High pore-fluid pressure in the immediate vicinity, as implied by our estimates of seismic P- and S-wave speeds, may act to promote this transient mode of failure. Low-frequency earthquakes could potentially contribute to seismic hazard forecasting by providing a new means to monitor slow slip at depth.

Deep fluid pathways beneath Mammoth Mountain, California, illuminated by migrating earthquake swarms.

Although most volcanic seismicity is shallow (within several kilometers of the surface), some volcanoes exhibit deeper seismicity (10 to 30+ km) that may reflect active processes such as magma resupply and volatile transfer. One such volcano is Mammoth Mountain, California, which has also recently exhibited high rates of CO2 discharge at the surface. We perform high-resolution earthquake detection and relocation to reveal punctuated episodes of rapidly propagating seismicity at mid-crustal depths along a narrow fracture zone surrounding a body of partial melt. We infer that these earthquakes track dike intrusions or fluid pressure pulses associated with CO2 exsolution, suggesting that the deep plumbing system of Mammoth Mountain is an active conduit for fluid transport from the base of the crust to the surface.

Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas fault.

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between approximately 3 and approximately 6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.