Refining quality measures for electrodiagnostic testing in suspected carpal tunnel syndrome to account for acceptable variations in practice: Expert review process.

INTRODUCTION/AIMS: Using a set of process-of-care quality measures for electrodiagnostic testing in suspected carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS), the research team previously documented large variations in electrodiagnostic testing practices and adherence to quality measures. This study sought to enhance the applicability and validity of the quality measures by integrating acceptable variations in testing practices. METHODS: We recruited 13 expert electrodiagnostic medicine specialists from five specialty societies. The experts iteratively refined five quality measures, and then rated the validity of the refined quality measures (1-9 scale). During this process, the experts reviewed data on adherence to existing quality measures and variations in electrodiagnostic testing practices, and considered recently published quality measures from the American Association of Neuromuscular and Electrodiagnostic Medicine. RESULTS: Three quality measures (electrodiagnostic testing before surgery for CTS, temperature assessment during electrodiagnostic testing, and electrodiagnostic criteria for severe median neuropathy) underwent few refinements and were rated valid (medians 8-9). Two measures (essential components of electrodiagnosis, criteria for interpreting electrodiagnostic tests as median neuropathy) were judged valid (medians 8) after revisions. For these measures, experts' ratings on the recommended components of sensory or mixed nerve conduction studies varied: agreement among the experts about the use of sensory peak latency was greater than for onset latency or sensory velocity. DISCUSSION: This study produced quality measures that provide minimum standards for electrodiagnostic testing for suspected CTS that are more comprehensive and nuanced than prior versions. Future work can assess the feasibility, reliability, and validity of these refined measures in diverse physician practices.

Variations in surgical practice and short-term outcomes for degenerative lumbar scoliosis and spondylolisthesis: do surgeon training and experience matter?

For diverse procedures, sizable geographic variation exists in rates and outcomes of surgery, including for degenerative lumbar spine conditions. Little is known about how surgeon training and experience are associated with surgeon-level variations in spine surgery practice and short-term outcomes. This retrospective observational analysis characterized variations in surgical operations for degenerative lumbar scoliosis or spondylolisthesis, two common age-related conditions. The study setting was two large spine surgery centers in one region during 2017-19. Using data (International Classification of Diseases-10th edition and current procedural terminology codes) extracted from electronic health record systems, we characterized surgeon-level variations in practice (use of instrumented fusion - a more extensive procedure that involves device-related risks) and short-term postoperative outcomes (major in-hospital complications and readmissions). Next, we tested for associations between surgeon training (specialty and spine fellowship) and experience (career stage and operative volume) and use of instrumented fusion as well as outcomes. Eighty-nine surgeons performed 2481 eligible operations. For the study diagnoses, spine surgeons exhibited substantial variation in operative volume, use of instrumented fusion, and postoperative outcomes. Among surgeons above the median operative volume, use of instrumented fusion ranged from 0% to >90% for scoliosis and 9% to 100% for spondylolisthesis, while rates of major in-hospital complications ranged from 0% to 25% for scoliosis and from 0% to 14% for spondylolisthesis. For scoliosis, orthopedic surgeons were more likely than neurosurgeons to perform instrumented fusion for scoliosis [49% vs. 33%, odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.3-4.2, P-value = .006] as were fellowship-trained surgeons (49% vs. 25%, OR = 3.0, 95% CI 1.6-5.8; P = .001). Fellowship-trained surgeons had lower readmission rates. Surgeons with higher operative volumes used instrumented fusion more often (OR = 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2, P < .05 for both diagnoses) and had lower rates of major in-hospital complications (OR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.97; P = .006). Surgical practice can vary greatly for degenerative spine conditions, even within the same region and among colleagues at the same institution. Surgical specialty and subspecialty, in addition to recent operative volume, can be linked to variations in spine surgeons' practice patterns and outcomes. These findings reinforce the notion that residency and fellowship training may contribute to variation and present important opportunities to optimize surgical practice over the course of surgeons' careers. Future efforts to reduce unexplained variation in surgical practice could test interventions focused on graduate medical education. Graphical Abstract.

The quality of electrodiagnostic tests for carpal tunnel syndrome: Implications for surgery, outcomes, and expenditures.

INTRODUCTION: The quality of electrodiagnostic tests may influence treatment decisions, particularly regarding surgery, affecting health outcomes and health-care expenditures. METHODS: We evaluated test quality among 338 adults with workers' compensation claims for carpal tunnel syndrome. Using simulations, we examined how it influences the appropriateness of surgery. Using regression, we evaluated associations with symptoms and functional limitations (Boston Carpal Tunnel Questionnaire), overall health (12-item Short Form Health Survey version 2), actual receipt of surgery, and expenditures. RESULTS: In simulations, suboptimal quality tests rendered surgery inappropriate for 99 of 309 patients (+32 percentage points). In regression analyses, patients with the highest quality tests had larger declines in symptoms (-0.50 point; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.89 to -0.12) and functional impairment (-0.42 point; 95% CI, -0.78 to -0.06) than patients with the lowest quality tests. Test quality was not associated with overall health, actual receipt of surgery, or expenditures. DISCUSSION: Test quality is pivotal to determining surgical appropriateness and associated with meaningful differences in symptoms and function.

Surgical appropriateness nudges: Developing behavioral science nudges to integrate appropriateness criteria into the decision making of spine surgeons.

BACKGROUND: Substantial variation exists in surgeon decision making. In response, multiple specialty societies have established criteria for the appropriate use of spine surgery. Yet few strategies exist to facilitate routine use of appropriateness criteria by surgeons. Behavioral science nudges are increasingly used to enhance decision making by clinicians. We sought to design "surgical appropriateness nudges" to support routine use of appropriateness criteria for degenerative lumbar scoliosis and spondylolisthesis. METHODS: The work reflected Stage I of the NIH Stage Model for Behavioral Intervention Development and involved an iterative, multi-method approach, emphasizing qualitative methods. Study sites included two large referral centers for spine surgery. We recruited spine surgeons from both sites for two rounds of focus groups. To produce preliminary nudge prototypes, we examined sources of variation in surgeon decision making (Focus Group 1) and synthesized existing knowledge of appropriateness criteria, behavioral science nudge frameworks, electronic tools, and the surgical workflow. We refined nudge prototypes via feedback from content experts, site leaders, and spine surgeons (Focus Group 2). Concurrently, we collected data on surgical practices and outcomes at study sites. We pilot tested the refined nudge prototypes among spine surgeons, and surveyed them about nudge applicability, acceptability, and feasibility (scale 1-5, 5 = strongly agree). RESULTS: Fifteen surgeons participated in focus groups, giving substantive input and feedback on nudge design. Refined nudge prototypes included: individualized surgeon score cards (frameworks: descriptive social norms/peer comparison/feedback), online calculators embedded in the EHR (decision aid/mapping), a multispecialty case conference (injunctive norms/social influence), and a preoperative check (reminders/ salience of information/ accountable justification). Two nudges (score cards, preop checks) incorporated data on surgeon practices and outcomes. Six surgeons pilot tested the refined nudges, and five completed the survey (83%). The overall mean score was 4.0 (standard deviation [SD] 0.5), with scores of 3.9 (SD 0.5) for applicability, 4.1 (SD 0.5) for acceptability, and 4.0 (SD 0.5), for feasibility. Conferences had the highest scores 4.3 (SD 0.6) and calculators the lowest 3.9 (SD 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Behavioral science nudges might be a promising strategy for facilitating incorporation of appropriateness criteria into the surgical workflow of spine surgeons. Future stages in intervention development will test whether these surgical appropriateness nudges can be implemented in practice and influence surgical decision making.

Trends in overdose deaths involving gabapentinoids and Z-drugs in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: As policies have been implemented to limit access to prescription opioids, other drugs have been prescribed off-label, sometimes concurrently with opioids, to manage pain. There are concerns about the use of gabapentinoids and "Z-drugs" with opioids. As the opioid crisis transitions to illicit opioids and polysubstance use, little work quantifies the concurrent involvement of non-opioid prescription drugs and illicit opioids in overdose deaths. METHODS: Data from the census of deaths in the United States for 1999-2020 were used to understand trends in deaths involving gabapentinoids/Z-drugs and opioid co-involvement. These trends were studied overall and by sex, race, age, and education. RESULTS: Per capita overdose deaths involving gabapentinoids/Z-drugs increased almost continuously since 1999, averaging 15.8% annual growth. This rate increased to 32% in 2020, primarily due to overdoses involving synthetic opioids. Women typically had higher rates of overdose deaths involving both opioids and gabapentinoids/Z-drugs, though this disparity disappeared in 2020. White Americans and American Indians/Alaskan Natives historically had higher rates than other racial groups; however, Black Americans experienced over 60% annual growth in recent years. Low education groups have been disproportionately impacted. The age incidence tends to be older than overdoses involving opioids more generally. CONCLUSION: Overdose deaths involving opioids and gabapentinoids/Z-drugs have tended to disproportionately affect women and older age groups compared to all opioid-involved overdoses. As deaths involving synthetic opioids likely reflect use of illicitly-obtained opioids, there may be less of a role for policies targeting the concurrent prescribing of gabapentinoids/Z-drugs with opioids to reduce these deaths.

Effect of the ExactCare medication care management model on adherence, health care utilization, and costs.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity and polypharmacy are common in the United States and are associated with greater risk of disease-related complications and higher health care costs. ExactCare has implemented a high-touch approach that includes home visits, comprehensive ongoing medication reviews, patient education, medication reconciliation, medication compliance packaging, and electronic reminders and trackers. OBJECTIVE: To test whether the ExactCare program improves medication adherence and reduces health care utilization and costs. METHODS: Using a national database from a large U.S. insurer, we identified Medicare Advantage plan members in 8 states from 2007 to 2018 who had both medical and prescription drug coverage. The index year for an ExactCare patient was identified using the date of the first prescription filled by ExactCare, with the previous year being the baseline. All patients without a prescription from an ExactCare pharmacy were considered potential comparison patients. To propensity match ExactCare and comparison patients, the probability of ExactCare participation was modeled using a logistic regression based on demographics, state, year, urban status, Medicaid eligibility, low-income subsidies, comorbidities, and baseline utilization and costs. Multivariate regression analysis was conducted to generate a difference-in-differences estimate of program effect for the matched pairs as well as patient-level fixed effects, while adjusting for additional time-varying characteristics. Adherence outcomes included the proportion of days covered for oral diabetic medications, antihypertensives, and hydroxymethylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins). Utilization outcomes included emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and skilled nursing facility (SNF) admissions, hospitalization days, and SNF days. Cost outcomes included total cost of care, prescription drug cost, hospital inpatient cost, and SNF cost. RESULTS: ExactCare patients (N = 701) were propensity-matched to comparison patients (N = 1,395) using the nearest 1:2 match approach, with an average follow-up period of 6.6 and 5.4 years for ExactCare and comparison patients, respectively. One year of ExactCare participation was associated with statistically significant increases in adherence to statins (8.4 percentage points; P < 0.001) and antihypertensive drugs (4.9 percentage points; P < 0.001), but the increase in adherence for diabetes drugs was not statistically significant. ExactCare participation was associated with statistically significant decreases in SNF admission rates (-67 SNF stays per 1,000 member-years; P = 0.011), inpatient days (-857 days per 1,000 member-years; P = 0.022), and SNF days (-1,801 days per 1,000 member-years; P = 0.002), but not with the rates of ED visits or hospital admissions. Each year of ExactCare participation was associated with increases in prescription drug costs ($30 per-member per month [PMPM]; P = 0.006) and decreases in total costs (-$196 PMPM; P = 0.023) and medical costs (-$226 PMPM; P = 0.008), largely attributable to decreases in hospital inpatient costs (-$119 PMPM; P = 0.001) and SNF costs (-$30 PMPM; P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: ExactCare's medication care management model was associated with improved medication adherence and an approximately $2,400 per member per year reduction in total cost of care, representing a 5% reduction in average costs. DISCLOSURES: This study was funded by ExactCare Pharmacy under a contract with RAND that grants the study authors sole responsibility for data management, study design, data analysis, manuscript drafting, and the decision to publish. The sponsor had no role in the study design and manuscript drafting. All data analysis was conducted by the study authors. A draft manuscript was reviewed by the sponsor, but the study authors made final decisions regarding the content and study conclusions. Shetty, Chen, and Liu are employed by RAND. Rose has nothing to disclose.

Home health agency adoption of quality improvement activities and association with performance.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Home Health Quality Reporting Program (HHQRP) uses performance measurement to spur improvements in home health agencies' (HHAs') quality of care. We examined quality improvement (QI) activities HHAs reported making to improve on HHQRP quality measures, and whether reported QI activities were associated with better measure performance. METHODS: We used responses (N = 1052) from a Web- and mail-based survey of a stratified random sample of HHAs included in CMS Home Health Compare in October 2019. We estimated national adoption rates for 27 possible QI activities related to organizational culture, health information technology, care process redesign, provider incentives, provider training, changes to staffing responsibilities, performance monitoring, and measure-specific QI initiatives and technical assistance. We used multivariate linear regression to examine the associations between HHA characteristics and QI adoption, and between QI adoption and CMS Home Health Quality of Patient Care Star Rating. RESULTS: HHAs reported implementing an average of 16 QI activities (interquartile range 11-19 activities). Larger HHA size was associated with adopting 1.6 additional QI activities (p < 0.001). HHAs with higher proportions of disabled, black, or Hispanic patients adopted QI activities at similar or higher rates as other HHAs. Of the 27 QI activities, 23 were considered helpful by more than 80% of adopting HHAs. Compared with adopting 44% of QI activities (10th percentile among HHAs), adopting 89% of QI activities (90th percentile) was associated with a 0.4-star higher Star Rating (95% confidence interval 0.2-0.6). CONCLUSIONS: HHAs report implementing a significant number of QI activities in response to CMS measurement programs; implementation of a greater number of activities is associated with better performance on publicly reported measures. To guide future HHA QI investments, work is needed to identify the optimal combination of QI activities and the specific QI activities that yield the greatest performance improvements.

Actions to improve quality: results from a national hospital survey.

OBJECTIVES: CMS measures and reports hospital performance to drive quality improvement (QI), but information on actions that hospitals have taken in response to quality measurement is lacking. We aimed to develop national estimates of QI actions undertaken by hospitals and to explore their relationship to performance on CMS quality measures. STUDY DESIGN: Nationally representative cross-sectional survey of acute care hospitals in 2016 (n = 1313 respondents; 64% response rate). METHODS: We assessed 23 possible QI changes. Using multivariate linear regression, we estimated the relationship between reported QI changes and performance on composite measures derived from 26 Hospital Inpatient Quality Reporting Program measures (scaled 0-100), controlling for case mix and facility characteristics. RESULTS: Hospitals reported implementing a mean of 17 QI changes (median [interquartile range], 17 [15-20]). Large hospitals reported significantly higher adoption rates than small hospitals for 18 QI changes. Most hospitals that reported making QI changes (63%-96% for the 23 changes) responded that the specific change made helped improve performance. In multivariate regression analyses, adoption of 92% of QI changes (90th percentile among hospitals), compared with adoption of 50% of QI changes (10th percentile), was associated with a 2.3-point higher overall performance score (95% CI, 0.7-4.0) and higher process (8.7 points; 95% CI, 5.7-11.7) and patient experience (3.0 points; 95% CI, 0.1-5.9) composite scores. CONCLUSIONS: Hospitals reported widespread adoption of QI changes in response to CMS quality measurement and reporting. Higher QI adoption rates were associated with modestly higher process, patient experience, and overall performance composite scores.

Nursing Home Responses to Performance-based Accountability: Results of a National Survey.

OBJECTIVES: The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Nursing Home Quality Initiative aims to improve quality through performance measurement. We describe quality improvement (QI) changes that skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) reported making in response to CMS performance measurements and whether reported QI changes were associated with better performance on CMS performance measures. DESIGN: Nationally representative survey. SETTING: A total of 15,475 SNFs that reported quality performance on Nursing Home Compare in 2016. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,182 SNFs (58% of random sample of 2,045 SNFs). MEASUREMENTS: Adoption of 22 possible QI changes, grouped into seven categories (organizational culture, health information technology, care process redesign, provider incentives, changes to staffing responsibilities, performance monitoring, and measure-specific QI initiatives and technical assistance); performance on the CMS Nursing Home Compare Five-Star Quality Rating System's quality measure rating. RESULTS: SNFs reported making an average of 13 QI changes (interquartile range = 11-16 changes). SNFs mostly commonly reported becoming a learning organization (87%) and providing training to staff on QI strategies (87%). After controlling for patient and facility characteristics, larger SNFs were more likely to obtain assistance on measure reporting from QI organizations and use provider champions than smaller SNFs by 14 and 11 percentage points, respectively. Rural SNFs and SNFs with higher proportions of disabled, black, or Hispanic residents adopted QI changes at similar rates as other SNFs. Of the 22 QI changes, 20 were considered at least somewhat helpful by more than 80% of adopting SNFs. Implementation of all 22 QI changes (vs no changes) was associated with a .48-star higher quality measure rating (95% confidence interval = .003-.98 stars; P = .05). CONCLUSION: In response to CMS measurement programs, SNFs reported making substantial QI investments that were associated with better performance on CMS quality measures. To guide future SNF investments in QI, work is needed to identify the QI changes that yield the greatest performance improvements.

Mortality associated with adult congenital heart disease: Trends in the US population from 1979 to 2005.

BACKGROUND: Significant advances over the last 5 decades have allowed most patients with congenital heart disease to survive well past childhood and into adulthood. Population-based data from the United States are limited regarding mortality in adult survivors. METHODS: We used the Center for Disease Control Multiple Cause-of-Death registry to determine trends in mortality from 1979 to 2005 among individuals with congenital heart disease in the United States. RESULTS: There were significant reductions in death rates for adults with a number of congenital defects including ventricular septal defect, patent ductus arteriosus, coarctation of the aorta, and Ebstein anomaly. Notably, when all ages were analyzed, there was a 71% decline in deaths associated with transposition of the great arteries (P = .001) and a 40% reduction in deaths associated with tetralogy of Fallot (P < .001). Mortality related to other lesions declined as well. Among adults with cyanotic lesions, the primary contributing cause of death was arrhythmia followed by heart failure. For adults with noncyanotic lesions, the major contributing cause before 1990 was arrhythmia; after 1990, myocardial infarction became the leading contributing cause of death. There was an overall decrease in the incidence of arrhythmia as the cause of death in all ages, particularly among children. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with congenital heart disease are living longer. Arrhythmia remains the primary contributing cause of death for those with cyanotic lesions. Myocardial infarction is now the leading contributing cause for adults with noncyanotic congenital heart disease consistent with late survival and an increasing impact of acquired heart disease.

Hormone replacement therapy and cardiovascular health in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) was widely used among postmenopausal women until 2002 because observational studies suggested that HRT reduced cardiovascular risk. The Women's Health Initiative randomized trial reported opposite results in 2002, which caused HRT use to drop sharply. OBJECTIVE: We examine the relationship between HRT use and cardiovascular outcomes (deaths and nonfatal hospitalizations) in the entire US population, which has not been studied in prior clinical trials or observational studies. METHODS: We use an instrumental variables regression design to analyze the relationship between medication use, cardiovascular risk factors, and acute stroke and myocardial infarction event rates in women aged 40 to 79 years. The natural experiment of the 2002 decline in HRT usage mitigates confounding factors. We use US death records, hospital discharge data obtained from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's Nationwide Inpatient Sample, and nationally representative surveys of medication usage, and behavioral risk factors. RESULTS: Decreases in HRT use were not associated with statistically significant changes in hospitalizations or deaths due to acute stroke (0.000002, P = 0.999, 95% CI: -0.0027 to 0.0027). Decreased HRT use was associated with a decrease in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction (-0.0025 or -25 events/10,000 person-years, P = 0.021, 95% CI: -0.0047 to -0.0004). The results were similar in a sensitivity analysis using alternate data sources. CONCLUSIONS: Decreased HRT use was not associated with reduced acute stroke rate but was associated with a decreased acute myocardial infarction rate among women. Our results suggest that observational data can provide correct inferences on clinical outcomes in the overall population if a suitable natural experiment is identified.

Changes in hospital mortality associated with residency work-hour regulations.

BACKGROUND: In 2002, the Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education enacted regulations, effective 1 July 2003, that limited work hours for all residency programs in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether work-hour regulations were associated with changes in mortality in hospitalized patients. DESIGN: Comparison of mortality rates in high-risk teaching service patients hospitalized before and after July 2003, with nonteaching service patients used as a control group. SETTING: 551 U.S. community hospitals included in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project's Nationwide Inpatient Survey between January 2001 and December 2004. PATIENTS: 1,511,945 adult patients admitted for 20 medical and 15 surgical diagnoses. MEASUREMENT: Inpatient mortality. RESULTS: In 1,268,738 medical patients examined, the regulations were associated with a 0.25% reduction in the absolute mortality rate (P = 0.043) and a 3.75% reduction in the relative risk for death. In subgroup analyses, particularly large improvements in mortality were observed among patients admitted for infectious diseases (change, -0.66%; P = 0.007) and in medical patients older than 80 years of age (change, -0.71%; P = 0.005). By contrast, in 243,207 surgical patients, regulations were not associated with statistically significant changes (change, 0.13%; P = 0.54). LIMITATIONS: Teaching status was assigned according to hospital characteristics because direct information on each patient's provider was not available. Results reflect changes associated with the sum of regulations, not specifically with caps on work hours. CONCLUSIONS: The work-hour regulations were associated with decreased short-term mortality among high-risk medical patients in teaching hospitals but were not associated with statistically significant changes among surgical patients in teaching hospitals.

Return on investment for a computerized physician order entry system.

OBJECTIVE: Although computerized physician order entry (CPOE) may decrease errors and improve quality, hospital adoption has been slow. The high costs and limited data on financial benefits of CPOE systems are a major barrier to adoption. The authors assessed the costs and financial benefits of the CPOE system at Brigham and Women's Hospital over ten years. DESIGN: Cost and benefit estimates of a hospital CPOE system at Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH), a 720-adult bed, tertiary care, academic hospital in Boston. MEASUREMENTS: Institutional experts provided data about the costs of the CPOE system. Benefits were determined from published studies of the BWH CPOE system, interviews with hospital experts, and relevant internal documents. Net overall savings to the institution and operating budget savings were determined. All data are presented as value figures represented in 2002 dollars. RESULTS: Between 1993 and 2002, the BWH spent $11.8 million to develop, implement, and operate CPOE. Over ten years, the system saved BWH $28.5 million for cumulative net savings of $16.7 million and net operating budget savings of $9.5 million given the institutional 80% prospective reimbursement rate. The CPOE system elements that resulted in the greatest cumulative savings were renal dosing guidance, nursing time utilization, specific drug guidance, and adverse drug event prevention. The CPOE system at BWH has resulted in substantial savings, including operating budget savings, to the institution over ten years. CONCLUSION: Other hospitals may be able to save money and improve patient safety by investing in CPOE systems.

Evaluating the feasibility and utility of translating Choosing Wisely recommendations into e-Measures.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to reduce health care spending have focused on reducing use of low-value services, but relatively few performance measures address overuse of care. In 2012, the American Board of Internal Medicine Foundation's "Choosing Wisely" (CW) campaign identified 45 low-value services that clinicians and patients should avoid. Translating these overuse concepts into performance measures could assist in discouraging the use of these services. We assessed the feasibility and utility of converting these recommendations into e-Measures based on data from electronic health records [EHR]). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used four criteria to evaluate 45 CW recommendations for e-Measure development: (1) feasibility of extracting needed data from EHR systems meeting Meaningful Use Stage 2 standards; (2) whether the recommendation's terminology was sufficiently specific for translation into an e-Measure; (3) scientific evidence supporting the recommendation; and (4) impact on reducing resource use. RESULTS: Only six of the 45 CW recommendations were deemed feasible for e-Measure development. Thirty-two recommendations require data elements unlikely to be found in current EHR systems; eight of 45 recommendations do not use sufficiently specific terminology. CONCLUSIONS: Improved capture of clinical information in EHRs and greater specificity of clinical terminology are required to advance these overuse concepts into standardized e-measures.

A pilot study using machine learning and domain knowledge to facilitate comparative effectiveness review updating.

BACKGROUND: Comparative effectiveness and systematic reviews require frequent and time-consuming updating. RESULTS: of earlier screening should be useful in reducing the effort needed to screen relevant articles. METHODS: We collected 16,707 PubMed citation classification decisions from 2 comparative effectiveness reviews: interventions to prevent fractures in low bone density (LBD) and off-label uses of atypical antipsychotic drugs (AAP). We used previously written search strategies to guide extraction of a limited number of explanatory variables pertaining to the intervention, outcome, and STUDY DESIGN: We empirically derived statistical models (based on a sparse generalized linear model with convex penalties [GLMnet] and a gradient boosting machine [GBM]) that predicted article relevance. We evaluated model sensitivity, positive predictive value (PPV), and screening workload reductions using 11,003 PubMed citations retrieved for the LBD and AAP updates. Results. GLMnet-based models performed slightly better than GBM-based models. When attempting to maximize sensitivity for all relevant articles, GLMnet-based models achieved high sensitivities (0.99 and 1.0 for AAP and LBD, respectively) while reducing projected screening by 55.4% and 63.2%. The GLMnet-based model yielded sensitivities of 0.921 and 0.905 and PPVs of 0.185 and 0.102 when predicting articles relevant to the AAP and LBD efficacy/effectiveness analyses, respectively (using a threshold of P ≥ 0.02). GLMnet performed better when identifying adverse effect relevant articles for the AAP review (sensitivity = 0.981) than for the LBD review (0.685). The system currently requires MEDLINE-indexed articles. CONCLUSIONS: We evaluated statistical classifiers that used previous classification decisions and explanatory variables derived from MEDLINE indexing terms to predict inclusion decisions. This pilot system reduced workload associated with screening 2 simulated comparative effectiveness review updates by more than 50% with minimal loss of relevant articles.

Using information mining of the medical literature to improve drug safety.

OBJECTIVE: Prescription drugs can be associated with adverse effects (AEs) that are unrecognized despite evidence in the medical literature, as shown by rofecoxib's late recall in 2004. We assessed whether applying information mining to PubMed could reveal major drug-AE associations if articles testing whether drugs cause AEs are over-represented in the literature. DESIGN: MEDLINE citations published between 1949 and September 2009 were retrieved if they mentioned one of 38 drugs and one of 55 AEs. A statistical document classifier (using MeSH index terms) was constructed to remove irrelevant articles unlikely to test whether a drug caused an AE. The remaining relevant articles were analyzed using a disproportionality analysis that identified drug-AE associations (signals of disproportionate reporting) using step-up procedures developed to control the familywise type I error rate. MEASUREMENTS: Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) for empirical drug-AE associations as judged against drug-AE associations subject to FDA warnings. RESULTS: In testing, the statistical document classifier identified relevant articles with 81% sensitivity and 87% PPV. Using data filtered by the statistical document classifier, base-case models showed 64.9% sensitivity and 42.4% PPV for detecting FDA warnings. Base-case models discovered 54% of all detected FDA warnings using literature published before warnings. For example, the rofecoxib-heart disease association was evident using literature published before 2002. Analyses incorporating literature mentioning AEs common to the drug class of interest yielded 71.4% sensitivity and 40.7% PPV. CONCLUSIONS: Results from large-scale literature retrieval and analysis (literature mining) compared favorably with and could complement current drug safety methods.

Changes in U.S. hospitalization and mortality rates following smoking bans.

U.S. state and local governments have increasingly adopted restrictions on smoking in public places. This paper analyzes nationally representative databases, including the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, to compare short-term changes in mortality and hospitalization rates in smoking-restricted regions with control regions. In contrast with smaller regional studies, we find that smoking bans are not associated with statistically significant short-term declines in mortality or hospital admissions for myocardial infarction or other diseases. An analysis simulating smaller studies using subsamples reveals that large short-term increases in myocardial infarction incidence following a smoking ban are as common as the large decreases reported in the published literature.