South Africa and the Surgical Diaspora-A Hub for Surgical Migration and Training.

BACKGROUND: The shortage of trained surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians is a major contributor to the unmet need for surgical care in low- and middle-income countries, and the shortage is aggravated by migration to higher-income countries. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional observational study, combining individual-level data of 43,621 physicians from the Health Professions Council of South Africa with data from the registers of 14 high-income countries, and international statistics on surgical workforce, in order to quantify migration to and from South Africa in both absolute and relative terms. RESULTS: Of 6670 surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians in South Africa, a total of 713 (11%) were foreign medical graduates, and 396 (6%) were from a low- or middle-income country. South Africa was an important destination primarily for physicians originating from low-income countries; 2% of all surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians from low- and middle-income countries were registered in South Africa, and 6% in the other 14 recipient countries. A total of 1295 (16%) South African surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians worked in any of the 14 studied high-income countries. CONCLUSION: South Africa is an important regional hub for surgical migration and training. A notable proportion of surgical specialists in South Africa were medical graduates from other low- or middle-income countries, whereas migration out of South Africa to high-income countries was even larger.

Global surgery, obstetric, and anaesthesia indicator definitions and reporting: An Utstein consensus report.

BACKGROUND: Indicators to evaluate progress towards timely access to safe surgical, anaesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) care were proposed in 2015 by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. These aimed to capture access to surgery, surgical workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality rate, and catastrophic and impoverishing financial consequences of surgery. Despite being rapidly taken up by practitioners, data points from which to derive the indicators were not defined, limiting comparability across time or settings. We convened global experts to evaluate and explicitly define-for the first time-the indicators to improve comparability and support achievement of 2030 goals to improve access to safe affordable surgical and anaesthesia care globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Utstein process for developing and reporting guidelines through a consensus building process was followed. In-person discussions at a 2-day meeting were followed by an iterative process conducted by email and virtual group meetings until consensus was reached. The meeting was held between June 16 to 18, 2019; discussions continued until August 2020. Participants consisted of experts in surgery, anaesthesia, and obstetric care, data science, and health indicators from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Considering each of the 6 indicators in turn, we refined overarching descriptions and agreed upon data points needed for construction of each indicator at current time (basic data points), and as each evolves over 2 to 5 (intermediate) and >5 year (full) time frames. We removed one of the original 6 indicators (one of 2 financial risk protection indicators was eliminated) and refined descriptions and defined data points required to construct the 5 remaining indicators: geospatial access, workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality, and catastrophic expenditure. A strength of the process was the number of people from global institutes and multilateral agencies involved in the collection and reporting of global health metrics; a limitation was the limited number of participants from low- or middle-income countries-who only made up 21% of the total attendees. CONCLUSIONS: To track global progress towards timely access to quality SAO care, these indicators-at the basic level-should be implemented universally as soon as possible. Intermediate and full indicator sets should be achieved by all countries over time. Meanwhile, these evolutions can assist in the short term in developing national surgical plans and collecting more detailed data for research studies.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Patients With Solid Tumors Before Initiating Chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with solid tumors who undergo chemotherapy have an increased risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation, but a low proportion of these patients are screened for HBV infection and guidelines make conflicting recommendations. Further, the cost-effectiveness of newer treatments for HBV prophylaxis has not been examined for this population. We aimed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of HBV screening before chemotherapy for patients with solid tumors. METHODS: We compared 3 HBV screening strategies (screen all, screen only high-risk patients, or screen none) using a Markov model of a population of adults in the United States who initiated chemotherapy for a solid tumor. We modeled use of entecavir prophylaxis for HB surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive patients and surveillance for HBsAg-negative patients who are positive for HBV core antibody. The Markov cycle length was 1 year, with model simulation for up to 5 years. RESULTS: The screen all strategy was the most cost effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $42,761 compared to screening only high-risk patients. The screen none strategy was less effective and less costly than screening all patients or only high-risk patients. The screen-all strategy was the most cost effective for all estimates of prevalence of HBsAg-positive patients and estimates of HBV reactivation in HBsAg-positive patients. Screening only high-risk patients was the most cost-effective strategy when more than 25% of high-risk patients were screened for HBV infection. CONCLUSIONS: In a Markov model analysis, we found screening all patients with solid tumors for HBV infection before chemotherapy to be the most cost-effective strategy. Guidelines should consider recommending HBV tests for patients initiating chemotherapy.

The Scale-Up of the Global Surgical Workforce: Can Estimates be Achieved by 2030?

BACKGROUND: The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery showed that countries with surgeon, anesthetist, and obstetrician (SAO) densities of 20-40 SAO/100,000 population were associated with improved health outcomes and recommended a global surgical workforce scale-up by 2030. Whether countries would be able to achieve such scale-up efforts in that time-frame is unknown. METHODS: A differential equation model was used to estimate the growth rate and number of SAO necessary for each country to reach the aforementioned SAO densities. Workforce data from Mexico and India were used to estimate achievable rates of SAO scale-up for middle- and low-income countries, respectively. Secular surgical growth rates were estimated to demonstrate what might occur without dedicated scale-up efforts. RESULTS: To reach at least 20 SAO/100,000 population in all countries by 2030, over 808 thousand SAO need to be trained by 2030. To reach at least 40 SAO/100,000 population, over 2.1 million SAO need to be trained. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to Mexico's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 66% of countries would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to India's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 56% would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. CONCLUSION: With dedicated efforts in surgical workforce scale-up, significant gains in SAO density can be made worldwide. However, without intervention, many countries are unlikely to improve their current workforce densities. Investments in workforce scale-up are likely to yield workforce gains that mirror current resource states.

Operative volume and surgical case distribution in Uganda's public sector: a stratified randomized evaluation of nationwide surgical capacity.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about operative volume, distribution of cases, or capacity of the public sector to deliver essential surgical services in Uganda. METHODS: A standardized mixed-methods surgical assessment and retrospective operative logbook review were completed at 16 randomly selected public hospitals serving 64·0% of Uganda's population. RESULTS: A total of 3014 operations were recorded, annualizing to a surgical volume of 36,670 cases/year or 144·5 operations/100,000people/year. Absolute surgical volume was greater at regional referral than general hospitals (p < 0·001); but, relative surgical volume/catchment population was greater at the general versus regional level (p = 0·03). Most patients undergoing operations were women (78·3%) with a mean age of 26·9 years. The overall case distribution was 69·0% obstetrics/gynecology, 23·7% general surgery, 4·0% orthopedics, and 3·3% other subspecialties. Cesarean sections were the most common operation (55·8%). Monthly operative volume was strongly predicted by number of surgical, anesthetic, and obstetric physician providers (훽=10·72, p = 0·005, R2 = 0·94) when controlling for confounders. Notably, operative volume was not correlated with availability of electricity, oxygen, light source, suction, blood, instruments, suture, gloves, intravenous fluid, or antibiotics. CONCLUSION: An understanding of operative case volume and distribution is essential in facilitating targeted interventions to strengthen surgical capacity. These data suggest that surgical workforce is the critical driver of operative volume in the Ugandan public sector. Investment in the surgical workforce is imperative to ensure access to safe, timely, and affordable surgical and anaesthesia care.

Predictors of Obstetric Fistula Repair Outcomes in Lubango, Angola.

OBJECTIVE: Obstetric fistulas have a significant physical and social impact on many women in Angola. The majority of the population of this sub-Saharan African nation does not have access to high-quality obstetric care, and this is associated with a risk of prolonged labour and formation of obstetric fistulas. Fistulas are challenging to correct surgically and may require repeated operations. The objective of the study was to determine predictors of successful obstetric fistula repair. METHODS: In this retrospective study, data from all recorded cases of fistula repair performed between July 2011 and December 2016 at the Centro Evangélico de Medicina do Lubango (CEML) hospital located in Lubango, Angola, were reviewed. Analysis of the data was carried out to determine factors affecting the success of fistula repair; parametric and non-parametric tests were used for group comparisons and logistic regression for outcome prediction (Canadian Task Force classification II-2). RESULTS: A total of 407 operations were performed on 243 women. Of these, 224 women were diagnosed with a vesicovaginal fistula and 19 with a combined vesicovaginal and rectovaginal fistula. The success rate for the attempted repairs was 42%. On multivariate analysis, the success of first surgery was negatively affected by the difficulty of repair (odds ratio 0.28; P < 0.01). For patients requiring repeat surgery, the odds of success were increased with each subsequent operation (odds ratio 5.32; P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Although fistulas rated as difficult to repair had a higher likelihood of initial failure, successive attempts at repair increased the likelihood of a successful outcome.

Quality of essential surgical care in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review of the literature.

PURPOSE: Quality of care is an emerging area of focus in the surgical disciplines. However, much of the emphasis on quality is limited to high-income countries. To address this gap, we conducted a systematic review of the literature on the quality of essential surgical care in low- and middle- income countries (LMIC). DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, Cinahl, Embase and CAB Abstracts using three domains: quality of care, surgery and LMIC. STUDY SELECTION: We limited our review to studies of essential surgeries that pertained to all three search domains. DATA EXTRACTION: We extracted data on study characteristics, type of surgery and the way in which quality was studied. RESULTS OF DATA SYNTHESIS: 354 studies were included. 281 (79.4%) were single-center studies and nearly half (n = 169, 46.9%) did not specify the level of facility. 207 studies reported on mortality (58.47%) and 325 reported on a morbidity (91.81%), most commonly surgical site infection (n = 190, 53.67%). Of the Institute of Medicine domains of quality, studies were most commonly of safety (n = 310, 87.57%) and effectiveness (n = 180, 50.85%) and least commonly of equity (n = 21, 5.93%). CONCLUSION: We find that while there are numerous studies that report on some aspects of quality of care, much of the data is single center and observational. Additionally, there is variability on which outcomes are reported both within and across specialties. Finally, we find under-reporting of parameters of equity and timeliness, which may be critical areas for research moving forward.

Cured into Destitution: Catastrophic Health Expenditure Risk Among Uninsured Trauma Patients in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the economic hardship for uninsured patients admitted for trauma using catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) risk. BACKGROUND: Medical debts are the greatest cause of bankruptcies in the United States. Injuries are often unpredictable, expensive to treat, and disproportionally affect uninsured patients. Current measures of economic hardship are insufficient and exclude those at greatest risk. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review, using data from the 2007-2011 Nationwide Inpatient Samples of all uninsured nonelderly adults (18-64 yrs) admitted with primary diagnoses of trauma. We used US Census data to estimate annual postsubsistence income and inhospital charges for trauma-related admission. Our primary outcome measure was catastrophic health expenditure risk, defined as any charges ≥40% of annual postsubsistence income. RESULTS: Our sample represented 579,683 admissions for uninsured nonelderly adults over the 5-year study period. Median estimated annual income was $40,867 (interquartile range: $21,286-$71.733). Median inpatient charges were $27,420 (interquartile range: $15,196-$49,694). Overall, 70.8% (95% posterior confidence interval: 70.7%-71.1%) of patients were at risk for CHE. The risk of CHE was similar across most demographic subgroups. The greatest risk, however, was concentrated among patients from low-income communities (77.5% among patients in the lowest community income quartile) and among patients with severe injuries (81.8% among those with ISS ≥ 16). CONCLUSIONS: Over 7 in 10 uninsured patients admitted for trauma are at risk of catastrophic health expenditures. This analysis is the first application of CHE to a US trauma population and will be an important measure to evaluate the effectiveness of health care and coverage strategies to improve financial risk protection.

Health-system-adapted data envelopment analysis for decision-making in universal health coverage.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and test a method that allows an objective assessment of the value of any health policy in multiple domains. METHODS: We developed a method to assist decision-makers with constrained resources and insufficient knowledge about a society's preferences to choose between policies with unequal, and at times opposing, effects on multiple outcomes. Our method extends standard data envelopment analysis to address the realities of health policy, such as multiple and adverse outcomes and a lack of information about the population's preferences over those outcomes. We made four modifications to the standard analysis: (i) treating the policy itself as the object of analysis, (ii) allowing the method to produce a rank-ordering of policies; (iii) allowing any outcome to serve as both an output and input; and (iv) allowing variable return to scale. We tested the method against three previously published analyses of health policies in low-income settings. RESULTS: When applied to previous analyses, our new method performed better than traditional cost-effectiveness analysis and standard data envelopment analysis. The adapted analysis could identify the most efficient policy interventions from among any set of evaluated policies and was able to provide a rank ordering of all interventions. CONCLUSION: Health-system-adapted data envelopment analysis allows any quantifiable attribute or determinant of health to be included in a calculation. It is easy to perform and, in the absence of evidence about a society's preferences among multiple policy outcomes, can provide a comprehensive method for health-policy decision-making in the era of sustainable development.