Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, and geopolitical impacts in many countries. In this study, we developed novel methods for forecasting mortality, fertility, migration, and population. We also assessed potential economic and geopolitical effects of future demographic shifts. METHODS: We modelled future population in reference and alternative scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates. We developed statistical models for completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50). Completed cohort fertility is much more stable over time than the period measure of the total fertility rate (TFR). We modelled CCF50 as a time-series random walk function of educational attainment and contraceptive met need. Age-specific fertility rates were modelled as a function of CCF50 and covariates. We modelled age-specific mortality to 2100 using underlying mortality, a risk factor scalar, and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Net migration was modelled as a function of the Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters; and use of an ARIMA model. The model framework was used to develop a reference scenario and alternative scenarios based on the pace of change in educational attainment and contraceptive met need. We estimated the size of gross domestic product for each country and territory in the reference scenario. Forecast uncertainty intervals (UIs) incorporated uncertainty propagated from past data inputs, model estimation, and forecast data distributions. FINDINGS: The global TFR in the reference scenario was forecasted to be 1·66 (95% UI 1·33-2·08) in 2100. In the reference scenario, the global population was projected to peak in 2064 at 9·73 billion (8·84-10·9) people and decline to 8·79 billion (6·83-11·8) in 2100. The reference projections for the five largest countries in 2100 were India (1·09 billion [0·72-1·71], Nigeria (791 million [594-1056]), China (732 million [456-1499]), the USA (336 million [248-456]), and Pakistan (248 million [151-427]). Findings also suggest a shifting age structure in many parts of the world, with 2·37 billion (1·91-2·87) individuals older than 65 years and 1·70 billion (1·11-2·81) individuals younger than 20 years, forecasted globally in 2100. By 2050, 151 countries were forecasted to have a TFR lower than the replacement level (TFR <2·1), and 183 were forecasted to have a TFR lower than replacement by 2100. 23 countries in the reference scenario, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain, were forecasted to have population declines greater than 50% from 2017 to 2100; China's population was forecasted to decline by 48·0% (-6·1 to 68·4). China was forecasted to become the largest economy by 2035 but in the reference scenario, the USA was forecasted to once again become the largest economy in 2098. Our alternative scenarios suggest that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals targets for education and contraceptive met need would result in a global population of 6·29 billion (4·82-8·73) in 2100 and a population of 6·88 billion (5·27-9·51) when assuming 99th percentile rates of change in these drivers. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016-40 for 195 countries and territories.

BACKGROUND: Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Past work on forecasting has provided an incomplete landscape of future health scenarios, highlighting a need for a more robust modelling platform from which policy options and potential health trajectories can be assessed. This study provides a novel approach to modelling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts -and alternative future scenarios-for 250 causes of death from 2016 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled 250 causes and cause groups organised by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) hierarchical cause structure, using GBD 2016 estimates from 1990-2016, to generate predictions for 2017-40. Our modelling framework used data from the GBD 2016 study to systematically account for the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. We developed a three-component model of cause-specific mortality: a component due to changes in risk factors and select interventions; the underlying mortality rate for each cause that is a function of income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years and time; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model for unexplained changes correlated with time. We assessed the performance by fitting models with data from 1990-2006 and using these to forecast for 2007-16. Our final model used for generating forecasts and alternative scenarios was fitted to data from 1990-2016. We used this model for 195 countries and territories to generate a reference scenario or forecast through 2040 for each measure by location. Additionally, we generated better health and worse health scenarios based on the 85th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of annualised rates of change across location-years for all the GBD risk factors, income per person, educational attainment, select intervention coverage, and total fertility rate under 25 years in the past. We used the model to generate all-cause age-sex specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) for 250 causes. Scenarios for fertility were also generated and used in a cohort component model to generate population scenarios. For each reference forecast, better health, and worse health scenarios, we generated estimates of mortality and YLLs attributable to each risk factor in the future. FINDINGS: Globally, most independent drivers of health were forecast to improve by 2040, but 36 were forecast to worsen. As shown by the better health scenarios, greater progress might be possible, yet for some drivers such as high body-mass index (BMI), their toll will rise in the absence of intervention. We forecasted global life expectancy to increase by 4·4 years (95% UI 2·2 to 6·4) for men and 4·4 years (2·1 to 6·4) for women by 2040, but based on better and worse health scenarios, trajectories could range from a gain of 7·8 years (5·9 to 9·8) to a non-significant loss of 0·4 years (-2·8 to 2·2) for men, and an increase of 7·2 years (5·3 to 9·1) to essentially no change (0·1 years [-2·7 to 2·5]) for women. In 2040, Japan, Singapore, Spain, and Switzerland had a forecasted life expectancy exceeding 85 years for both sexes, and 59 countries including China were projected to surpass a life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. At the same time, Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe had projected life expectancies below 65 years in 2040, indicating global disparities in survival are likely to persist if current trends hold. Forecasted YLLs showed a rising toll from several non-communicable diseases (NCDs), partly driven by population growth and ageing. Differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios were most striking for HIV/AIDS, for which a potential increase of 120·2% (95% UI 67·2-190·3) in YLLs (nearly 118 million) was projected globally from 2016-40 under the worse health scenario. Compared with 2016, NCDs were forecast to account for a greater proportion of YLLs in all GBD regions by 2040 (67·3% of YLLs [95% UI 61·9-72·3] globally); nonetheless, in many lower-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases still accounted for a large share of YLLs in 2040 (eg, 53·5% of YLLs [95% UI 48·3-58·5] in Sub-Saharan Africa). There were large gaps for many health risks between the reference forecast and better health scenario for attributable YLLs. In most countries, metabolic risks amenable to health care (eg, high blood pressure and high plasma fasting glucose) and risks best targeted by population-level or intersectoral interventions (eg, tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution) had some of the largest differences between reference and better health scenarios. The main exception was sub-Saharan Africa, where many risks associated with poverty and lower levels of development (eg, unsafe water and sanitation, household air pollution, and child malnutrition) were projected to still account for substantive disparities between reference and better health scenarios in 2040. INTERPRETATION: With the present study, we provide a robust, flexible forecasting platform from which reference forecasts and alternative health scenarios can be explored in relation to a wide range of independent drivers of health. Our reference forecast points to overall improvements through 2040 in most countries, yet the range found across better and worse health scenarios renders a precarious vision of the future-a world with accelerating progress from technical innovation but with the potential for worsening health outcomes in the absence of deliberate policy action. For some causes of YLLs, large differences between the reference forecast and alternative scenarios reflect the opportunity to accelerate gains if countries move their trajectories toward better health scenarios-or alarming challenges if countries fall behind their reference forecasts. Generally, decision makers should plan for the likely continued shift toward NCDs and target resources toward the modifiable risks that drive substantial premature mortality. If such modifiable risks are prioritised today, there is opportunity to reduce avoidable mortality in the future. However, CMNN causes and related risks will remain the predominant health priority among lower-income countries. Based on our 2040 worse health scenario, there is a real risk of HIV mortality rebounding if countries lose momentum against the HIV epidemic, jeopardising decades of progress against the disease. Continued technical innovation and increased health spending, including development assistance for health targeted to the world's poorest people, are likely to remain vital components to charting a future where all populations can live full, healthy lives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of secondary health conditions on social role participation for a long-term physical disability cohort.

For people living with long-term physical disability (LTPD) social participation may involve managing physical impairments and secondary health conditions (SHCs) that are not due to the pathophysiology of the LTPD diagnosis itself. Prior research found a negative relationship between SHCs and participation in social roles in people with spinal cord injury (SCI). We expand on this research by investigating the influence of SHCs on participation in social roles for people with one of four LTPDs, controlling for co-variates. We (1) evaluated the associations between SHCs and participation in social roles; and (2) determined whether SHCs on individuals' ability to participate in social roles varies by type of diagnosis in those aging with either SCI, muscular sclerosis, muscular dystrophy, or post-polio syndrome. Cross-sectional, secondary data analysis from a return-by-mail survey. N = 1,573. Data were analyzed with multiple linear regressions (hypothesis 1), and then three moderated regressions (hypothesis 2). After controlling for demographics, SHCs were associated with lower ability to participate in social roles and accounted for 48% of the variance (all p's <.001). The relationship between depression and social role participation was moderated by diagnosis, such that depression was more negatively associated with social participation among individuals with SCI (p = .020). Thus, SHC negatively impact participation in social roles.

Relative Importance of Baseline Pain, Fatigue, Sleep, and Physical Activity: Predicting Change in Depression in Adults With Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether baseline levels of pain, fatigue, sleep disturbance, and physical activity measured at the initial assessment predicted the development of or improvement of depression 3.5 years later, while controlling for sex, age, and disease severity. DESIGN: Observational, longitudinal survey study. SETTING: A community-based population sample. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with multiple sclerosis (MS) (N=489). INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Primary outcome was classification of depression group measured using a Patient Health Questionnaire-9 cutoff score ≥10, indicating probable major depression. RESULTS: Fatigue severity (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-1.26; P<.0001) and sleep disturbance (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.10; P=.001) predicted probable major depression 3.5 years later among those not depressed at the initial assessment. An effect of age (odds ratio, .96; 95% confidence interval, .92-.99; P=.008) was found among those who developed depression, indicating that younger adults were more likely to develop depression. Pain, fatigue, sleep, and physical activity at baseline were not significantly associated with recovery from depression among those depressed at the initial assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Fatigue and sleep may contribute to the development of depression. Clinical trial research targeting these variables to determine their influence on depression is warranted.

Efficacy of a Telephone-Delivered Self-Management Intervention for Persons With Multiple Sclerosis: A Randomized Controlled Trial With a One-Year Follow-Up.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of a telephone-delivered self-management intervention for fatigue, pain, and depression in adults with multiple sclerosis (MS). DESIGN: Single-center, randomized (1:1), single-blind (outcome assessors), parallel-group trial with a primary endpoint of posttreatment (9-11 wk postrandomization) and long-term follow-up at 6 and 12 months. SETTING: Telephone-delivered across the United States. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with MS (N=163) with fatigue, chronic pain, and/or moderate depressive symptoms (age range, 25-76 y). INTERVENTIONS: Eight-week individual telephone-delivered self-management intervention (T-SM) (n=75) versus an 8-week individual telephone-delivered MS education intervention (T-ED) (n=88). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion who achieved a ≥50% decrease in 1 or more symptoms-fatigue impact, pain interference, and/or depression severity. Secondary outcomes included continuous measures of pain, fatigue impact, depression, self-efficacy, activation, health-related quality of life, resilience, and affect. RESULTS: For our primary outcome, 58% of those in the T-SM group and 46% of those in the T-ED group had a ≥50% reduction in 1 or more symptoms; this difference was not statistically significant (odds ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, .77-2.93; P=.238). Participants in both groups significantly improved from baseline to posttreatment in primary and secondary outcome measures (P<.05). T-SM participants reported significantly higher treatment satisfaction and therapeutic alliance and greater improvements in activation, positive affect, and social roles. Improvements were generally maintained at 6 and 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Both interventions resulted in short- and long-term, clinically meaningful benefits. The study demonstrated that the telephone is an effective method for engaging participants in care and extending the reach of rehabilitation for individuals with MS.

Direct breastfeeding frequency of late preterm and term infants in the neonatal intensive care unit and availability of mother's own milk at six months of age. a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mother's Own Milk (MOM) reduces the risk of complications in premature infants. Breastfeeding rates for late preterm and term infants in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) are significantly lower than that of breastfed healthy term newborns at 6 months of age. DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study of neonates born at 34 weeks 0 days or later. Infants who were directly breastfed in the NICU and were discharged on breast milk were included. Logistic regression modeling was used to determine the significance of association. RESULTS: 171 mother-infant dyads were included. After adjusting for confounders, the number of breastfeeding attempts during the NICU stay was significantly associated with the availability of MOM at six months of age (p = 0.003, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.14). CONCLUSION: This study is the first to show an association between the number of direct breastfeeding attempts in the NICU and availability of MOM at six months of age.

The association of age, pain, and fatigue with physical functioning and depressive symptoms in persons with spinal cord injury.

CONTEXT/OBJECTIVE: To describe the relationship of pain and fatigue with physical and psychological functioning in adults with spinal cord injury (SCI). DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Community-based survey. PARTICIPANTS: Convenience sample of individuals with SCI. INTERVENTION: Not applicable. OUTCOME MEASURES: Physical functioning (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Physical Functioning item bank items), depression (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9)), pain severity (0-10 Numerical Rating Scale (NRS)), and fatigue (0-10 NRS). RESULTS: Pain and fatigue were independently associated with depression, but only pain was associated with physical functioning. Additionally, depression was more severe among middle-aged participants relative to younger or older participants. Physical functioning declined with increasing age, as well as with higher level of injury. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the need for continued development of effective treatments for both pain and fatigue in order to prevent and mitigate the negative effects these symptoms can have on functioning.

Pain and fatigue in persons with postpolio syndrome: independent effects on functioning.

OBJECTIVES: To better understand the importance of pain and fatigue in relation to functioning, and to investigate the role that age plays in these relationships in individuals with postpolio syndrome (PPS). DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Community-based survey. PARTICIPANTS: Convenience sample of 446 individuals with PPS. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Physical functioning (Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Physical Functioning item bank items), psychological functioning (Patient Health Questionnaire-9), pain intensity (0-10 numerical rating scale [NRS]), and fatigue (0-10 NRS). RESULTS: Pain and fatigue make independent contributions to the prediction of physical and psychological functioning. Depression was more severe in the middle-aged (≤64y) group than in the young-old (65-74y) or middle-old to oldest (≥75y) groups, although the associations between pain and fatigue and both physical and psychological functioning are similar across all age cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Complaints of pain or fatigue in patients with PPS who are older or elderly should not be attributed "merely" to the process of aging. The findings also support the need for clinical trials to develop and evaluate interventions that may help patients with PPS function better by treating pain and fatigue, as well as the negative effects that these symptoms can have on functioning.

Diagnosis of Neonatal Herpes Simplex Infection from the Placenta.

Due to a high rate of fetal demise and premature birth in intrauterine HSV infection, the outcome in neonates is usually adverse. A female preterm infant with a gestational age of 25 1/7 weeks with expected early clinical course tested positive for neonatal herpes simplex virus (HSV) 2 after the neonatologist was informed of positive immunohistochemistry for the virus on the fifth day of life by the pathologist. Pathological examination of the placenta had revealed subacute necrotizing inflammation with stromal cell necrosis suggestive of intrauterine infection, possibly ascending due to prolonged rupture of membranes. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first case wherein placental pathology indicated exposure to HSV in utero before the infant presented with signs or symptoms of neonatal HSV resulting in a favorable outcome for the infant. Due to the variability of presentation of intrauterine HSV infection, pathological examination of the placenta in the first 2-5 days of life in premature infants can provide clues to the diagnosis of neonatal HSV which may significantly impact the outcome.

Development of a resilience item bank and short forms.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a publicly available, psychometrically sound item bank and short forms for measuring resilience in any population, but especially resilience in individuals with chronic medical conditions or long-term disability. RESEARCH METHODS: A panel of 9 experts including disability researchers, clinical psychologists, and health outcomes researchers developed a definition of resilience that guided item development. The rigorous methodology used focus groups, cognitive interviews, and modern psychometric theory quantitative methods, including item response theory (IRT). Items were administered to a sample of people with chronic medical conditions commonly associated with disability (N = 1,457) and to a general population sample (N = 300) representative of the Unites States general population with respect to age, gender, race, and ethnicity. RESULTS: The final item bank includes 28 items calibrated to IRT with the scores on a T-metric. A mean of 50 represents the mean resilience in the general population sample. Four and eight item short forms are available, and their scores are highly correlated with the item bank score (r ≥ .94). Reliability is excellent across most of the resilience continuum. Initial analyses provide strong support for validity of the score. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support reliability and validity of the University of Washington Resilience Scale (UWRS) for assessing resilience in any population, including individuals with chronic health conditions or disabilities. It can be administered using computerized adaptive testing or by short forms. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Changes in perceived social support predict changes in depressive symptoms in adults with physical disability.

BACKGROUND: Perceived social support has been found to be associated with depression, subjective well-being and psychological health in cross-sectional studies in people with physical disabilities. No longitudinal studies have been conducted to examine these associations over time using a comprehensive measure of social support. OBJECTIVE/HYPOTHESIS: We hypothesized that: (1) the amount of perceived social support would be similar across individuals with different diagnoses often associated with disability (i.e., multiple sclerosis [MS], spinal cord injury [SCI], muscular dystrophy [MD]) but (2) lower among men, relative to women, and (3) changes over time in perceived social support would be negatively associated with changes in depressive symptoms across diagnostic groups. METHODS: A survey-based six-year longitudinal study. Depressive symptoms were measured with the PROMIS Depression scale. General (Total Scale), Friend, Family and Significant Other social support were measured with the Multi-dimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS). RESULTS: The findings indicated no significant differences in any of the perceived social support scales as a function of diagnosis or sex. However, over the course of six years, those reporting increases in social support reported decreases in depressive symptoms, while those reporting decreases in social support reported increases in depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in perceived social support are inversely related with the changes in depressive symptoms in adults with MS, SCI, and MD. Social support would be a reasonable treatment target in interventions seeking to improve psychological wellbeing in individuals with conditions that are often associated with disabilities.

Bouncing back again, and again: a qualitative study of resilience in people with multiple sclerosis.

Purpose The purpose of this study was to describe the meaning of resilience, factors facilitating resilience and barriers to resilience, from the perspective of persons with multiple sclerosis (MS), their care partners and community stakeholders. Method We conducted four focus groups: two with middle-aged (36-62 years) individuals with MS [one with men (n = 6) and one with women (n = 6)], one for partners of individuals with MS (n = 11) and one with community stakeholders serving people with MS (n = 9). We asked participants to describe what resilience means to them, what factors facilitate resilience and what barriers to resilience they perceive. We analyzed the focus group transcripts for emerging themes and sub-themes. Results Participants found it difficult to generate a concise definition of resilience, but they generated evocative descriptions of the concept. Psychological adaptation, social connection, life meaning, planning and physical wellness emerged as facilitators of resilience. Resilience depletion, negative thoughts and feelings, social limitations, social stigma and physical fatigue emerged as barriers to resilience. Conclusion The unpredictable nature of MS can present unique challenges to resilient adjustment, especially during middle age. However, several factors can contribute to resilience and quality of life, and these factors are amenable to intervention. Implications for Rehabilitation Resilience is the capacity to bounce back and thrive when faced with challenges. People with MS develop resilience through psychological adaptation, social connection, life meaning, planning ahead and physical wellness. Barriers to resilience with MS include burnout, negative thoughts and feelings, social difficulties, stigma and fatigue. Interventions should address both individual and social factors that support resilience, such as promoting positive thinking, planning and engagement in meaningful activities.

Solace in solidarity: Disability friendship networks buffer well-being.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: To determine whether having friends who share one's disability experiences is associated with higher well-being, and whether these friendships buffer well-being from disability-related stressors. Research Method/Design: In 2 cross-sectional studies, adults with long-term physical disabilities identified close friends who shared their diagnosis. We assessed well-being as a function of the number of friends that participants identified in each group. Study 1 included 71 adults with legal blindness living in the United States, while Study 2 included 1,453 adults in the United States with either muscular dystrophy (MD), multiple sclerosis (MS), post-polio syndrome (PPS), or spinal cord injury (SCI). RESULTS: In Study 1, having more friends sharing a blindness diagnosis was associated with higher life satisfaction, even controlling for the number of friends who were not blind. In Study 2, Participants with more friends sharing their diagnosis reported higher quality of life and satisfaction with social role participation. Participants with more friends sharing their diagnosis also showed and attenuated associations between the severity of their functional impairment and their quality of life and social role satisfaction, suggesting that their friendships buffered the impact of their functional impairment on well-being. Participants reporting more friends with any physical disability showed similar benefits. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS: Friends with disabilities can offer uniquely important informational and emotional support resources that buffer the impact of a functional impairment on well-being. Psychosocial interventions should help people with long-term disabilities build their peer support networks. (PsycINFO Database Record

Self-reported incidence and age of onset of chronic comorbid medical conditions in adults aging with long-term physical disability.

BACKGROUND: Adults with long-term disability are living longer and may experience accelerated aging. More information is needed to understand the incidence of chronic comorbid medical conditions in this population. OBJECTIVE: To examine the incidence, prevalence, age of onset and predictors of five chronic conditions in a sample of adults with long-term physical disability. METHODS: Longitudinal self-report surveys were mailed to 1594 adults with multiple sclerosis, muscular dystrophy, post-polio syndrome or spinal cord injury twice, 3.5 years apart. Survey questions assessed demographics (date of birth, sex, income, disability type, height/weight), self-reported diagnosis of coronary heart disease, hypertension, arthritis, diabetes and cancer, and health behaviors (alcohol use, smoking, physical activity). RESULTS: Over the course of the study, the most commonly reported new onset chronic comorbid medical condition was arthritis (percent incidence = 14%), followed by hypertension (9%) and cancer (7%). Report of a new condition was greatest in adults aged between 56 and 65 years, and risk factors included greater BMI, waist circumference, and the presence of another chronic comorbid medical condition at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic comorbid medical conditions are prevalent in persons with long-term physical disability. Midlife appears to be the period of greatest risk for onset of a new condition, and risk for incidence increases in the presence of other chronic comorbid medical conditions. Modifiable risk factors include BMI and waist circumference. Future research should explore whether changes in modifiable factors at midlife or earlier (e.g., diet, exercise) would help prevent or delay onset of comorbid conditions in this population.

The role of pain acceptance on function in individuals with disabilities: a longitudinal study.

Having higher levels of pain acceptance has been shown to be associated positively with quality of life in patients with chronic pain, but its role in adjustment to chronic pain among individuals with physical disabilities living in the community is not known. Moreover, issues related to item overlap between measures of pain acceptance and measures of patient function have limited the conclusions that can be drawn from previous research in this area. To better understand the role that pain acceptance plays in patient function, we administered measures of pain acceptance, pain intensity, depressive symptoms, and function to 392 individuals with physical disabilities, and the pain, symptom, and function measures were readministered 3.5 years later. Analyses evaluated the main and interaction effects of initial pain acceptance on subsequent changes in pain and function. Having higher levels of pain acceptance-in particular as reflected by a willingness to engage in activities despite pain-resulted in less increase in pain intensity and more improvements in pain interference, physical function, depressive symptoms, and sleep quality. The findings indicate that previous research supporting the importance of pain acceptance to function in patients from health care settings extends to individuals with chronic pain living in the community. Moreover, they indicate that pain acceptance may have long-lasting (up to 3.5 years) beneficial effects on subsequent pain and function and on the association between change in pain and depression. Research to examine the potential benefits of community-based treatments that increase pain acceptance is warranted.

Measures of aging with disability in U.S. secondary data sets: Results of a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: There remain significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of aging with long-term disability. It is possible that important advances in knowledge could be gained using existing secondary data sets. However, little is known regarding which of the data sets available to researchers contain the age-related measures needed for this purpose, specifically age of onset and/or duration of disability measures. OBJECTIVE: To better understand the capacity to investigate aging with long-term disability (e.g. mobility limitation) and aging with long-term chronic conditions (e.g. spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis) using extant data. METHODS: Public use national and regional data sets were identified through existing reports, web-based searches, and expert nomination. The age- and disability-related variables, including age of onset and duration of disability, were tabulated for data sets meeting inclusion criteria. Analysis was descriptive. RESULTS: A total of N = 44 data sets were reviewed. Of these, 22 contained both age and disability variables. Within these 22 data sets, 9 contained an age of onset or duration of disability variable. Six of the nine data sets contained age of diagnosis for a single or set of health conditions. Onset of functional limitation is in two, and onset of self-reported and/or employment disability is in four, of the nine data sets respectively. CONCLUSIONS: There is some, but limited opportunity to investigate aging with long-term disability in extant U.S. public use secondary data sets.

Resilience, age, and perceived symptoms in persons with long-term physical disabilities.

Resilience may mitigate impact of secondary symptoms such as pain and fatigue on quality of life in persons aging with disability. This study examined resilience in a large sample of individuals with disabling medical conditions by validating the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, obtaining descriptive information about resilience and evaluating resilience as a mediator among key secondary symptoms and quality of life using structural equation modeling. Results indicated that the measure's psychometric properties were adequate in this sample. Resilience was lowest among participants who were middle-aged or younger, and participants with depression. Resilience mediated associations between secondary symptoms and quality of life.

Comparison of biostimulation versus bioaugmentation with bacterial strain PM1 for treatment of groundwater contaminated with methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE).

Widespread contamination of groundwater by methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) has triggered the exploration of different technologies for in situ removal of the pollutant, including biostimulation of naturally occurring microbial communities or bioaugmentation with specific microbial strains known to biodegrade the oxygenate. After laboratory studies revealed that bacterial strain PM1 rapidly and completely biodegraded MTBE in groundwater sediments, the organism was tested in an in situ field study at Port Hueneme Naval Construction Battalion Center in Oxnard, California. Two pilot test plots (A and B) in groundwater located down-gradient from an MTBE source were intermittently sparged with pure oxygen. Plot B was also inoculated with strain PM1. MTBE concentrations up-gradient from plots A and B initially varied temporally from 1.5 to 6 mg MTBE/L. Six months after treatment began, MTBE concentrations in monitoring wells down-gradient from the injection bed decreased substantially in the shallow zone of the groundwater in plots A and B, thus even in the absence of the inoculated strain PM1. In the deeper zone, downstream MTBE concentrations also decreased in plot A and to a lesser extent in plot B. Difficulties in delivery of oxygen to the deeper zone of plot B, evidenced by low dissolved oxygen concentrations, were likely responsible for low rates of MTBE removal at that location. We measured the survival and movement of strain PM1 in groundwater samples using two methods for detection of DNA sequences specific to strain PM1: TaqMan quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and internal transcribed spacer region analysis. A naturally occurring bacterial strain with > 99% 16S rDNA sequence similarity to strain PM1 was detected in groundwater collected at various locations at Port Hueneme, including outside the plots where the organism was inoculated. Addition of oxygen to naturally occurring microbial populations was sufficient to stimulate MTBE removal at this site. In some cases, however, inoculation with an MTBE-degrading culture may be warranted.

Sexual Function, Satisfaction, and Use of Aids for Sexual Activity in Middle-Aged Adults with Long-Term Physical Disability.

BACKGROUND: Sexuality is an important aspect of quality of life in individuals with disabilities, yet little is known about what factors contribute to sexual satisfaction as these individuals age. METHODS: Middle-aged adults with physical disabilities completed a cross-sectional survey that included measures of sexual activity, function, and satisfaction. RESULTS: Consistent with studies of able-bodied adults, sexual function was the strongest predictor of satisfaction. However, depression also predicted sexual satisfaction for women. Use of aids for sexual activity varied by disability type and was generally associated with better function. Lowest levels of sexual satisfaction were reported by men with SCI. CONCLUSIONS: Depression may negatively impact sexual satisfaction in women, beyond contributions of sexual dysfunction, and effective use of sexual aids may improve function in this population.