Pandemic preparedness and management in European out-of-hours primary care services - a descriptive study.

BACKGROUND: Primary care is the first point of contact for all acute health problems. As such, primary care was at the frontline in the COVID-19 pandemic, playing a significant role in clinical responses and information to the public. This study aimed to describe the variations in patient management strategies used in the out-of-hours services in different European countries during the first phase of the pandemic. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional web-based survey in August 2020, selecting key informants from European countries using European networks. The questionnaire was developed in collaboration with researchers in the field of out-of-hours primary care. We performed descriptive analyses per region, structuring results into themes. RESULTS: Key informants from 38 regions in 20 European countries responded. Seven regions reported that their out-of-hours services had a pandemic preparedness plan, three had trained on the plan, and two had stockpiles of personal protection equipment before the outbreak. Extension of telephone triage lines and establishment of local infection-control teams and clinics were the main patient management strategies. Other strategies for patient contacts were also used in the regions, such as video-consultations (13 regions), electronic consultations (21 regions), patient's car as alternative waiting room (19 regions), outside tents for testing (24 regions), "drive-through" testing (26 regions), and separate departments for infected patients (14 regions). CONCLUSION: Few out-of-hours services were well prepared for a pandemic, but all expanded and reorganized rapidly, adopting new strategies for patient management and treatment. The results could be useful for planning of organization preparedness of out-of-hours primary care service for future pandemics.

Reliability and validity of the Netherlands Triage Standard in emergency care settings: a case scenario study.

BACKGROUND: The Netherlands Triage Standard (NTS) is a triage system that can be used by different types of emergency care organisations. Our objective was to determine the interrater reliability and construct validity of the NTS when applied to self-presenting patients. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional case scenario study consisting of two parts: (1) paediatric triage in January-February 2019 and (2) adult triage in October-November 2020. In each part, we invited nurse triagists from three general practitioner cooperatives, three ambulance dispatching centres and three hospital emergency departments in the Netherlands to participate. We used 40 case scenarios involving paediatric patients and 41 involving adult patients who could self-present to any emergency care organisation. In advance, an expert panel determined the urgency (six levels) of the case scenarios (reference standard). The main outcome for reliability was the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for urgency level. The main outcomes for validity were degree of agreement with the reference standard, for urgency level, and sensitivity and specificity for high versus low urgency. We used descriptive statistics and logistic multilevel modelling with both case and triagist as random effects. RESULTS: 218 out of 240 invited triagists participated. The ICC among all triagists was 0.73 for paediatric cases and 0.88 for adult cases and was highest in general practitioner cooperatives. For paediatric cases, there was 62.3% agreement with the reference standard about urgency, 17.4% underestimation and 20.2% overestimation. The sensitivity of the NTS for identifying highly urgent paediatric cases was 85.2%; the specificity was 89.7%. For adult cases, there was 68.3% agreement, 13.7% underestimation and 18.0% overestimation. The sensitivity of triage for high urgency in adults was 94.5% and the specificity 83.3%. CONCLUSION: NTS appears to have good reliability and construct validity for estimating the urgency of health complaints of non-referred patients presenting themselves in emergency care.

Early experiences with quality-assured HbA1c and professional glucose point-of-care testing in general practice: a cross-sectional observational study among patients, nurses and doctors.

BACKGROUND: Point-of-care testing (POCT) is increasingly used in primary care. The rapid availability of the test result during the patient encounter increases the potential for patients and care providers to make a direct and joint decision on disease management. Our aim was to get insight into the first experiences of patients and healthcare professionals after introducing quality-controlled HbA1c and professional glucose POCT in diabetes care in their own general practices. METHODS: A cross-sectional observational study using paper questionnaires for patients, nurses and general practitioners (GPs) in 13 general practices in the Netherlands. HbA1c and professional glucose POCT was introduced after training and under day-to-day quality control. Patients filled in the questionnaire immediately after the test; nurses and GPs after a minimum period of three months from the starting date. Descriptive data analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 1551 fingerstick blood POC tests were performed (1126 HbA1c; 425 Glucose). For HbA1c POCT, 84 patients, 29 nurses and 11 GPs filled in the questionnaires. For professional glucose POCT, 30 patients, 17 nurses and 8 GPs responded. Response rates varied between 24 and 56%. Patients, nurses and GPs were generally (very) satisfied with the novel POC tests. Patients were most positive about the location (in the GPs' office) and execution of the POC test (by their own nurse), and the speed of the test result. Almost all nurses indicated to have sufficient knowledge and skills to perform the test. Both nurses and GPs had confidence in the test results and indicated they experienced a higher patient satisfaction than with regular blood tests. Perceived disadvantages were the time required to regularly calibrate the devices and the extension of the consultation time because of the test. Patients, nurses and GPs generally expressed they wanted to continue performing these POC tests in routine diabetes care. CONCLUSIONS: Patients, nurses and GPs expressed (very) positive first experiences after introducing HbA1c and professional glucose testing on two high-quality POCT devices in their own general practices. Further research, with a random selection procedure of practices and patients and in other regions and countries, is recommended to confirm these findings.

Out-of-hours primary care in 26 European countries: an overview of organizational models.

BACKGROUND: Various models exist to organize out-of-hours primary care (OOH-PC). We aimed to provide an up-to-date overview of prevailing organizational models in the European Union (EU), implemented changes over the last decade and future plans. This baseline overview may provide information for countries considering remodelling their OOH-PC system. METHODS: A cross-sectional web-based questionnaire among 93 key informants from EU countries, Norway and Switzerland. Key informants with expertise in the field of primary health care were invited to participate. Themes in the questionnaire were the existing organizational models for OOH-PC, model characteristics, major organizational changes implemented in the past decade and future plans. RESULTS: All 26 included countries had different coexisting OOH-PC models, varying from 3 to 10 models per country. 'GP cooperative was the dominant model in most countries followed by primary care centre and rota group'. There was a large variation in characteristics between the models, but also within the models, caused by differences between countries and regions. Almost all countries had implemented changes over the past 10 years, mostly concerning the implementation of telephone triage and a change of organizational model by means of upscaling and centralization of OOH-PC. Planned changes varied from fine-tuning the prevailing OOH-PC system to radical nationwide organizational transitions in OOH-PC. CONCLUSIONS: Different organizational models for OOH-PC exist on international and national level. Compared with a decade ago, more primary care-oriented organizational models are now dominant. There is a trend towards upscaling and centralization; it should be evaluated whether this improves the quality of health care.

Factors related to out-of-hours help-seeking for acute health problems: a survey study using case scenarios.

BACKGROUND: The acute out-of-hours healthcare services are challenged by increasing demand in many countries. We aimed to examine factors influencing the intended help-seeking in out-of-hours care for acute health problems during evenings, nights, and weekends. METHODS: We conducted a survey study based on data from parents of children (aged 0-4 years) and adults (aged 30-39 and 50-59 years) in Denmark, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Intended help-seeking behaviour was measured by six hypothetical case scenarios. We used Andersen's Behavioural Model to categorise potentially influential factors and applied multiple binomial regression to assess the influence of selected factors. RESULTS: A total of 1015 parents and 2942 adults participated. We identified several significant influential factors. Parents holding a low education (OR 1.56), having migrant background (western: OR 1.23; non-western: OR 1.93), having one child (OR 1.24), perceiving few barriers to using out-of-hours primary care (OR 1.59), perceiving difficulties with organising childcare (OR 1.13), and having a history of frequent contacts with out-of-hours care (OR 1.55) were more inclined to contact out-of-hours care, whereas female (OR 0.85) and non-anxious parents (OR 0.77) were less inclined. Adults who were older (OR 1.01), holding a medical education (OR 1.13), having non-western background (OR 1.28), being unemployed (OR 1.17), perceiving few barriers to using out-of-hours primary care (OR 1.37), and having a history of frequent contacts with a GP (few: OR 1.15; more: OR 1.22) and/or with out-of-hours care (one: OR 1.20; more: OR 1.49) were more inclined to contact out-of-hours care, whereas adults with no or little social support (OR 0.84) and adults with high health literacy level on health information (OR 0.91) were less inclined. Dutch parents were less inclined than Danish parents to contact out-of-hours care (OR 0.62), whereas Swiss adults were more inclined than Danish adults to contact out-of-hours care (OR 1.16). CONCLUSION: We identified several factors related to intended help-seeking in out-of-hours care. These results could be used to develop targeted interventions, but more research is needed to examine the underlying explanations for the identified differences.

Examining differences in out-of-hours primary care use in Belgium and the Netherlands: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The organizational model of out-of-hours primary care is likely to affect healthcare use. We aimed to examine differences in the use of general practitioner cooperatives for out-of-hours care in the Netherlands and Belgium (Flanders) and explore if these are related to organizational differences. METHODS: A cross-sectional observational study using routine electronic health record data of the year 2016 from 77 general practitioner cooperatives in the Netherlands and 5 general practitioner cooperatives in Belgium (Flanders). Patient age, gender and health problem were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: The number of consultations per 1000 residents was 2.3 times higher in the Netherlands than in Belgium. Excluding telephone consultations, which are not possible in Belgium, the number of consultations was 1.4 times higher. In Belgium, the top 10 of health problems was mainly related to infections, while in the Netherlands there were a larger variety of health problems. In addition, the health problem codes in the Dutch top 10 were more often symptoms, while the codes in the Belgian top 10 were more often diagnoses. In both countries, a relatively large percentage of GPC patients were young children and female patients. CONCLUSION: Differences in the use of general practitioner cooperatives seem to be related to the gatekeeping role of general practitioners in the Netherlands and to organizational differences such as telephone triage, medical advice by telephone, financial thresholds and number of years of experience with the system. The information can benefit policy decisions about the organization of out-of-hours primary care.

Effects of access to radiology in out-of-hours primary care in the Netherlands: a prospective observational study.

Background: In the Netherlands, out-of-hours primary care is provided in general-practitioner-cooperatives (GPCs). These are increasingly located on site with emergency departments (ED), forming Emergency-Care-Access-Points (ECAP). A more efficient and economical organization of out-of-hours primary emergency care could be realized by increased collaboration at an ECAP. In this study, we compared the effects of different models with respect to access to (hospital) radiology by the GPC. We investigated patient and care characteristics, indication for diagnostics and outcomes at GPCs with and without access to radiology. Methods: A prospective observational record review study of patients referred for conventional radiology for trauma by one of five GPCs in the period April 2014-October 2015, covering three organizational models. Results: The mean age was 31 years and 56% was female. Extremities were predominately involved (91%). There was a medical indication for radiology in 85% and the assessed risk by requesting GPs on abnormalities was high in 66%. There was a significant difference in outcomes between models. Radiological abnormalities (fractures/luxations) were present in 51% without direct access and in 35% with partial and unlimited access. Overall, 61% of the included patients were referred to the ED; 100% in the models without access and 38% in the models with (partial) access. Conclusions: GPC access to radiology is beneficial for patients and professionals. The diagnostics were adequately used. With access to radiology, unnecessary referrals and specialist care are prevented. This may lead to a decrease in ED attendance and overcrowding.

The Development and Performance of After-Hours Primary Care in the Netherlands: A Narrative Review.

In many Western countries, hospital emergency departments are overcrowded, leading to the desire to strengthen primary care, particularly after hours. To achieve this goal, an increasing number of Western nations are reorganizing their after-hours primary care systems into large-scale primary care physician (PCP) cooperatives. This article provides an overview of the organization, performance, and development of PCP cooperatives in the Netherlands. The Dutch after-hours primary care system might offer opportunities for other countries facing problems with after-hours care and inappropriate emergency department visits. During the past several years, the number of contacts with Dutch PCP cooperatives has increased to 245 contacts per 1000 citizens per year. Many contacts (45%) are nonurgent, and about half occur as part of a series of primary care contacts. Low accessibility and availability of daytime primary care are related to greater use of after-hours primary care. To prevent unnecessary attendance at the cooperatives, physicians advocate copayment, a stricter triage system, and a larger role for telephone doctors. More than half of the PCP cooperatives in the Netherlands have integrated with hospital emergency departments, forming "emergency care access points." This collaboration has decreased emergency department use by 13% to 22%, and treatment of self-referrals by PCP cooperatives in emergency care access points is safe and cost-effective. Direct access to diagnostic facilities may optimize efficiency even more. Other recent developments include access to electronic health records of daytime primary care practices, task substitution from physicians to nurses, and the launch of a 2-year training program for PCPs to become experts in emergency care.

Patient safety culture in out-of-hours primary care services in the Netherlands: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To examine patient safety culture in Dutch out-of-hours primary care using the safety attitudes questionnaire (SAQ) which includes five factors: teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, perceptions of management and communication openness. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study using an anonymous web-survey. Setting Sixteen out-of-hours general practitioner (GP) cooperatives and two call centers in the Netherlands. Subjects Primary healthcare providers in out-of-hours services. Main outcome measures Mean scores on patient safety culture factors; association between patient safety culture and profession, gender, age, and working experience. RESULTS: Overall response rate was 43%. A total of 784 respondents were included; mainly GPs (N = 470) and triage nurses (N = 189). The healthcare providers were most positive about teamwork climate and job satisfaction, and less about communication openness and safety climate. The largest variation between clinics was found on safety climate; the lowest on teamwork climate. Triage nurses scored significantly higher than GPs on each of the five patient safety factors. Older healthcare providers scored significantly higher than younger on safety climate and perceptions of management. More working experience was positively related to higher teamwork climate and communication openness. Gender was not associated with any of the patient safety factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that healthcare providers perceive patient safety culture in Dutch GP cooperatives positively, but there are differences related to the respondents' profession, age and working experience. Recommendations for future studies are to examine reasons for these differences, to examine the effects of interventions to improve safety culture and to make international comparisons of safety culture. Key Points Creating a positive patient safety culture is assumed to be a prerequisite for quality and safety. We found that: • healthcare providers in Dutch GP cooperatives perceive patient safety culture positively; • triage nurses scored higher than GPs, and older and more experienced healthcare professionals scored higher than younger and less experienced professionals - on several patient safety culture factors; and • within the GP cooperatives, safety climate and openness of communication had the largest potential for improvement.

Availability of Dutch General Practitioners for After-Hours Palliative Care.

BACKGROUND: Continuity of care is important for palliative patients in their end of life. In the Netherlands, after-hours primary care for palliative patients is either provided by large-scale general practitioner (GP) cooperatives or GPs choose to give palliative care by themselves while they are not on duty. AIM: To examine the availability of, perceived problems by, and attitude of Dutch GPs regarding providing palliative care for their own patients outside office hours. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional observational study among 1772 GPs from 10 Dutch regions. METHOD: Online questionnaire among GPs affiliated with 10 GP cooperatives. RESULTS: Five hundred twenty-four (29.6%) eligible questionnaires were returned. Of the GPs, 60.8% were personally available outside office hours for their own palliative patients on their own private cell phone and performed home visits if needed. In 33.0%, GPs were willing to make home visits in private time instigated by the GP cooperative and 26.8% were only accessible for telephone consultation by the GP cooperative. In 12.2%, the GP delegated after-hours palliative care completely to the GP cooperative. The GPs predominantly reported "time pressure" problems (17.3%) as a barrier and 61.7% stated that after-hours palliative care is the responsibility of the own GP. CONCLUSION: The large majority of Dutch GPs is personally available for telephone consultation and/or willing to provide palliative care for their own patients outside office hours. For the future, it is important to maintain the willingness of GPs to remain personally available for their palliative patients.

Development and testing of the KERNset: an instrument to assess the quality of telephone triage in out-of-hours primary care services.

BACKGROUND: Telephone triage is a core but vulnerable part of the care process at out-of-hours general practitioner (GP) cooperatives. In the Netherlands, different instruments have been used for assessing the quality of telephone triage. These instruments focussed mainly on communicational aspects, and less on the medical quality of triage decisions. Our aim was to develop and test a minimum set of items to assess the quality of telephone triage. METHODS: A national survey among all GP cooperatives in the Netherlands was performed to examine the most important aspects of telephone triage. Next, corresponding items from existing instruments were searched on these topics. Subsequently, an expert panel judged these items on importance, completeness and formulation. The concept KERNset consisted of 24 items about the telephone conversation: 13 medical, ten communicational and one regarding both types. It was pilot tested on measurement characteristics, reliability, validity and variation between triagists. In this pilot study, 114 anonymous calls from four GP cooperatives spread across the Netherlands were judged by three out of eight raters, both internal and external raters. RESULTS: Cronbach's alpha was .94 for the medical items and .75 for the communicational items. Inter-rater reliability: complete agreement between the external raters was 45% and reasonable agreement 73% (difference of maximally one point on the five-point scale). Intra-rater reliability: complete agreement within raters was 55% and reasonable agreement 84%. There were hardly any differences between internal and external raters, but there were differences in strictness between individual raters. The construct validity was confirmed by the high correlation between the general impression of the call and the items of the KERNset. Of the differences within items 19% could be explained by differences between triage nurses, which means the KERNset is able to demonstrate differences between triage nurses. CONCLUSIONS: The KERNset can be used to assess the quality of telephone triage. The validity is good and differences between calls and between triage nurses can be measured. A more intensive training for raters could improve the reliability.

Patient and care characteristics of self-referrals treated by the general practitioner cooperative at emergency-care-access-points in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, out-of-hours primary care is provided in general practitioner-cooperatives (GPCs). These are increasingly located on site and in collaboration with emergency departments of hospitals (ED). At such sites, also called emergency-care-access-points (ECAP), the GPC is generally responsible for the triage and treatment of self-referrals who used to attend the ED. To evaluate the effects and safety of this novel organisation, we studied the characteristics and the quality of care given by GPCs to self-referrals at ECAPs. METHODS: Retrospective analysis (August 2011-January 2012) of 783 records of self-referred patients at three Dutch GPCs in an ECAP. This was supplemented with a retrospective analysis of patient records during a follow-up period of three-months to asses safety. RESULTS: Patient-characteristics: 59% was male, 46% aged between 16-45 years and 59% trauma-related. Most cases (95%) were triaged low-urgent. None received the highest urgency-category. Quality: The triage outcome was correct in 79%, underestimated in 12% and overestimated in 9%. After GP consultation 20% were referred to the ED, mostly for radio-diagnostics. Of the referrals to secondary care, 98% were according to common medical practice. Thirty percent had a follow-up contact, mostly with their own general practitioner, seldom with the ED. Complications, all non-severe, were registered in 3.2%; 0.4% were possibly preventable. CONCLUSIONS: Self-referred patients at an ECAP are mostly trauma related, low-urgent and male patients. The majority could be treated by the GPC without subsequent referral to the ED. Care given at the GPC is reasonably efficient and safe. Triage and treatment of self-referrals by the GPC at ECAPs might offer opportunities for other countries facing problems with inappropriate emergency department visits.

Migrants' motives and expectations for contacting out-of-hours primary care: a survey study.

BACKGROUND: Migrants are more likely to use out-of-hours primary care, especially for nonurgent problems. Their motives and expectations for help-seeking are as yet unknown. The objective of this study is to examine the motives and expectations of migrants for contacting out-of-hours primary care. METHODS: We used data from a survey study of 11,483 patients who contacted a General Practitioner (GP) cooperative in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2014 (response rate 45.6%). Logistic regression analysis was used to test differences in motives and expectations between non-western and western migrants and native Dutch patients. RESULTS: The main motives for contacting a GP cooperative for non-western and western migrants were an urgent need for contact with a GP (54.9%-52.4%), worry (49.3%-43.0%), and a need for medical information (21.3%-26.2%). These were also the most important motives for native Dutch patients. Compared to native Dutch patients, non-western migrants more often perceived an urgent need for a GP (OR 1.65; 99% CI 1.27-2.16), less often needed information (OR 0.59; 99% CI 0.43-0.81), and more often experienced problems contacting their own GP during office hours (OR 1.71; 99% CI 1.21-2.43). Western migrants also reported experiencing problems more often in contacting their own GP (OR 1.38; 99% CI 1.04-1.84). As well as for natives, most non-western and western migrants expected to see a doctor (46.2%-46.6%) or get advice (39.6%-41.5%). Non-western migrants expected more often to get physical examination (OR 1.53; 99% CI 1.14-2.04), and prescription (OR 1.37; 99% CI 1.00-1.88). We found no differences in expectations between western migrants and native Dutch patients. CONCLUSION: The main motives and expectations of migrants are similar to native Dutch patients, yet non-western migrants more often wanted action from the GP, e.g. examination or prescription, and less often passive forms of assistance such as giving information. At the same time they experience problems accessing their own GP. We recommend stimulation of self-care, education about the purpose of a GP cooperative, and examination and improvement of accessibility of daytime primary care.

Telephone triage in general practices: A written case scenario study in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE: General practices increasingly use telephone triage to manage patient flows. During triage, the urgency of the call and required type of care are determined. This study examined the organization and adequacy of telephone triage in general practices in the Netherlands. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational study using a web-based survey among practice assistants including questions on background characteristics and triage organization. Furthermore, practice assistants were asked to assess the required type of care of written case scenarios with varying health problems and levels of urgency. To determine the adequacy of the assessments, a comparison with a reference standard was made. In addition, the association between background characteristics and triage organization and the adequacy of triage was examined. SETTING: Daytime general practices. SUBJECTS: Practice assistants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Over- and under-estimation, sensitivity, specificity. RESULTS: The response rate was 41.1% (n = 973). The required care was assessed adequately in 63.6% of cases, was over-estimated in 19.3%, and under-estimated in 17.1%. The sensitivity of identifying patients with a highly urgent problem was 76.7% and the specificity was 94.0%. The adequacy of the assessments of the required care was higher for more experienced assistants and assistants with fixed daily work meetings with the GP. Triage training, use of a triage tool, and authorization of advice were not associated with adequacy of triage. CONCLUSION: Triage by practice assistants in general practices is efficient (high specificity), but potentially unsafe in highly urgent cases (suboptimal sensitivity). It is important to train practice assistants in identifying highly urgent cases. KEY POINTS: General practices increasingly use telephone triage to manage patient flows, but little is known about the organization and adequacy of triage in daytime practices. Telephone triage by general practice assistants is efficient, but potentially unsafe in highly urgent cases. The adequacy of triage is higher for more experienced assistants and assistants with fixed daily work meetings with the general practitioner.

Contacts with out-of-hours primary care for nonurgent problems: patients' beliefs or deficiencies in healthcare?

BACKGROUND: In the Netherlands, about half of the patient contacts with a general practitioner (GP) cooperative are nonurgent from a medical perspective. A part of these problems can wait until office hours or can be managed by the patient himself without further professional care. However, from the patient's perspective, there may be a need to contact a physician immediately. Our objective was to determine whether contacts with out-of-hours primary care made by patients with nonurgent problems are the result of patients' beliefs or of deficiencies in the healthcare system. METHODS: We performed a survey among 2000 patients with nonurgent health problems in four GP cooperatives in the Netherlands. Two GPs independently judged the medical necessity of the contacts of all patients in this study. We examined characteristics, views and motives of patients with medically necessary contacts and those without medically necessary contacts. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the characteristics, views and reasons of the patients with medically unnecessary contacts and medically necessary contacts. Differences between these groups were tested with chi-square tests. RESULTS: The response rate was 32.3 % (N = 646). Of the nonurgent contacts 30.4 % were judged as medically necessary (95 % CI 27.0-34.2). Compared to patients with nonurgent but medically necessary contacts, patients with medically unnecessary contacts were younger and were more often frequent attenders. They had longer-existing problems, lower self-assessed urgency, and more often believed GP cooperatives are intended for all help requests. Worry was the most frequently mentioned motive for contacting a GP cooperative for patients with a medically unnecessary contact (45.3 %) and a perceived need to see a GP for patients with a medically necessary contact (44.2 %). Perceived availability (5.8 %) and accessibility (8.3 %) of a patient's own GP played a role for some patients. CONCLUSION: Motives for contacting a GP cooperative are mostly patient-related, but also deficiencies in access to general practice may partly explain medically unnecessary use. Efforts to change the use of GP cooperatives should focus on education of subgroups with an increased likelihood of contact for medically unnecessary problems. Improvement of access to daytime primary care may also decrease use of the GP cooperative.

Association between general practice characteristics and use of out-of-hours GP cooperatives.

BACKGROUND: The use of out-of-hours healthcare services for non-urgent health problems is believed to be related to the organisation of daytime primary care but insight into underlying mechanisms is limited. Our objective was to examine the association between daytime general practice characteristics and the use of out-of-hours care GP cooperatives. METHODS: A cross-sectional observational study in 100 general practices in the Netherlands, connected to five GP cooperatives. In each GP cooperative, we took a purposeful sample of the 10 general practices with the highest use of out-of-hours care and the 10 practices with the lowest use. Practice and population characteristics were obtained by questionnaires, interviews, data extraction from patient registration systems and telephone accessibility measurements. To examine which aspects of practice organisation were associated with patients' use of out-of-hours care, we performed logistic regression analyses (low versus high out-of-hours care use), correcting for population characteristics. RESULTS: The mean out-of-hours care use in the high use group of general practices was 1.8 times higher than in the low use group. Day time primary care practices with more young children and foreigners in their patient populations and with a shorter distance to the GP cooperative had higher out-of-hours primary care use. In addition, longer telephone waiting times and lower personal availability for palliative patients in daily practice were associated with higher use of out-of-hours care. Moreover, out-of-hours care use was higher when practices performed more diagnostic tests and therapeutic procedures and had more assistant employment hours per 1000 patients. Several other aspects of practice management showed some non-significant trends: high utilising general practices tended to have longer waiting times for non-urgent appointments, lower availability of a telephone consulting hour, lower availability for consultations after 5 p.m., and less frequent holiday openings. CONCLUSIONS: Besides patient population characteristics, organisational characteristics of general practices are associated with lower use of out-of-hours care. Improving accessibility and availability of day time primary day care might be a potential effective way to improve the efficient use of out-of-hours care services.

Potential impact of a new sepsis prediction model for the primary care setting: early health economic evaluation using an observational cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the potential referral rate and cost impact at different cut-off points of a recently developed sepsis prediction model for general practitioners (GPs). DESIGN: Prospective observational study with decision tree modelling. SETTING: Four out-of-hours GP services in the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: 357 acutely ill adult patients assessed during home visits. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is the cost per patient from a healthcare perspective in four scenarios based on different cut-off points for referral of the sepsis prediction model. Second, the number of hospital referrals for the different scenarios is estimated. The potential impact of referral of patients with sepsis on mortality and hospital admission was estimated by an expert panel. Using these study data, a decision tree with a time horizon of 1 month was built to estimate the referral rate and cost impact in case the model would be implemented. RESULTS: Referral rates at a low cut-off (score 2 or 3 on a scale from 0 to 6) of the prediction model were higher than observed for patients with sepsis (99% and 91%, respectively, compared with 88% observed). However, referral was also substantially higher for patients who did not need hospital assessment. As a consequence, cost-savings due to referral of patients with sepsis were offset by increased costs due to unnecessary referral for all cut-offs of the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Guidance for referral of adult patients with suspected sepsis in the primary care setting using any cut-off point of the sepsis prediction model is not likely to save costs. The model should only be incorporated in sepsis guidelines for GPs if improvement of care can be demonstrated in an implementation study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dutch Trial Register (NTR 7026).

Predicting sepsis-related mortality and ICU admissions from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives with acute infections: A cohort study of linked routine care databases.

BACKGROUND: General practitioners (GPs) often assess patients with acute infections. It is challenging for GPs to recognize patients needing immediate hospital referral for sepsis while avoiding unnecessary referrals. This study aimed to predict adverse sepsis-related outcomes from telephone triage information of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using linked routine care databases from out-of-hours GP cooperatives, general practices, hospitals and mortality registration. We included adult patients with complaints possibly related to an acute infection, who were assessed (clinic consultation or home visit) by a GP from a GP cooperative between 2017-2019. We used telephone triage information to derive a risk prediction model for sepsis-related adverse outcome (infection-related ICU admission within seven days or infection-related death within 30 days) using logistic regression, random forest, and neural network machine learning techniques. Data from 2017 and 2018 were used for derivation and from 2019 for validation. RESULTS: We included 155,486 patients (median age of 51 years; 59% females) in the analyses. The strongest predictors for sepsis-related adverse outcome were age, type of contact (home visit or clinic consultation), patients considered ABCD unstable during triage, and the entry complaints"general malaise", "shortness of breath" and "fever". The multivariable logistic regression model resulted in a C-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.88-0.90) with good calibration. Machine learning models performed similarly to the logistic regression model. A "sepsis alert" based on a predicted probability >1% resulted in a sensitivity of 82% and a positive predictive value of 4.5%. However, most events occurred in patients receiving home visits, and model performance was substantially worse in this subgroup (C-statistic 0.70). CONCLUSION: Several patient characteristics identified during telephone triage of patients presenting to out-of-hours GP cooperatives were associated with sepsis-related adverse outcomes. Still, on a patient level, predictions were not sufficiently accurate for clinical purposes.

Quality of after-hours primary care in the Netherlands: a narrative review.

Many Western countries are seeking an organizational model for after-hours primary care that is safe, efficient, and satisfactory for patients and health care professionals. Around the year 2000, Dutch primary care physicians (PCPs) reorganized their after-hours primary care and shifted from small rotation groups to large-scale PCP cooperatives. This article provides a narrative review of studies on a range of issues about after-hours primary care in the Netherlands, including experiences of health care professionals and patients, patient-safety incidents, adherence to practice guidelines, waiting times, and quality of telephone triage. Physicians expressed high satisfaction with PCP cooperatives; their workload decreased, and job satisfaction increased compared with the situation before the reorganization. In general, patients were also satisfied, but areas for improvement included telephone consultations, patient education, and distance to a pharmacy. A study identified patient-safety incidents in 2.4% of all contacts, of which most did not result in harm to patients. The average adherence to clinical guidelines by physicians was 77%, with lowest adherence scores for prescribing antibiotics and treatment in emergency cases. The average waiting time for home visits was 30 minutes. Seventy percent of patients with life-threatening problems were visited within the time target of 15 minutes. Telephone triage by nurses had positive effects on care efficiency by increasing the proportion of telephone consultations and decreasing the proportion of clinic consultations and home visits. The after-hours primary care system in the Netherlands might set an example for other countries struggling to find a good solution for the problems they encounter with after-hours primary care. Future developments in the Netherlands include integration and extensive collaboration with the accident and emergency departments of hospitals, in which PCPs take care of self-referring patients.