Trial of Vancomycin and Cefazolin as Surgical Prophylaxis in Arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: The addition of vancomycin to beta-lactam prophylaxis in arthroplasty may reduce surgical-site infections; however, the efficacy and safety are unclear. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind, superiority, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned adult patients without known methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization who were undergoing arthroplasty to receive 1.5 g of vancomycin or normal saline placebo, in addition to cefazolin prophylaxis. The primary outcome was surgical-site infection within 90 days after surgery. RESULTS: A total of 4239 patients underwent randomization. Among 4113 patients in the modified intention-to-treat population (2233 undergoing knee arthroplasty, 1850 undergoing hip arthroplasty, and 30 undergoing shoulder arthroplasty), surgical-site infections occurred in 91 of 2044 patients (4.5%) in the vancomycin group and in 72 of 2069 patients (3.5%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.73; P = 0.11). Among patients undergoing knee arthroplasty, surgical-site infections occurred in 63 of 1109 patients (5.7%) in the vancomyin group and in 42 of 1124 patients (3.7%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.04 to 2.23). Among patients undergoing hip arthroplasty, surgical-site infections occurred in 28 of 920 patients (3.0%) in the vancomyin group and in 29 of 930 patients (3.1%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.59 to 1.63). Adverse events occurred in 35 of 2010 patients (1.7%) in the vancomycin group and in 35 of 2030 patients (1.7%) in the placebo group, including hypersensitivity reactions in 24 of 2010 patients (1.2%) and 11 of 2030 patients (0.5%), respectively (relative risk, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.08 to 4.49), and acute kidney injury in 42 of 2010 patients (2.1%) and 74 of 2030 patients (3.6%), respectively (relative risk, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.83). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of vancomycin to cefazolin prophylaxis was not superior to placebo for the prevention of surgical-site infections in arthroplasty among patients without known MRSA colonization. (Funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12618000642280.).

Transcriptional network analysis of peripheral blood leukocyte subsets in multiple sclerosis identifies a pathogenic role for a cytotoxicity-associated gene network in myeloid cells.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease of the central nervous system affecting predominantly adults. It is a complex disease associated with both environmental and genetic risk factors. Although over 230 risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms have been associated with MS, all are common human variants. The mechanisms by which they increase the risk of MS, however, remain elusive. We hypothesized that a complex genetic phenotype such as MS could be driven by coordinated expression of genes controlled by transcriptional regulatory networks. We, therefore, constructed a gene coexpression network from microarray expression analyses of five purified peripheral blood leukocyte subsets of 76 patients with relapsing remitting MS and 104 healthy controls. These analyses identified a major network (or module) of expressed genes associated with MS that play key roles in cell-mediated cytotoxicity which was downregulated in monocytes of patients with MS. Manipulation of the module gene expression was achieved in vitro through small interfering RNA gene knockdown of identified drivers. In a mouse model, network gene knockdown modulated the autoimmune inflammatory MS model disease-experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis. This research implicates a cytotoxicity-associated gene network in myeloid cells in the pathogenesis of MS.

Costs associated with invasive Scedosporium and Lomentospora prolificans infections: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the short- and long-term healthcare costs of invasive Scedosporium/Lomentospora prolificans infections, particularly in patient groups without haematological malignancy. This study investigated excess index hospitalization costs and cumulative costs of these infections. The predictors of excess cost and length of stay (LOS) of index hospitalization were determined. These estimates serve as valuable inputs for cost-effectiveness models of novel antifungal agents. METHODS: A retrospective case-control study was conducted at six Australian hospitals. Cases of proven/probable invasive Scedosporium/L. prolificans infections between 2011 and 2021 (n = 34) were matched with controls (n = 66) by predefined criteria. Cost data were retrieved from activity-based costing systems and analysis was performed from the Australian public hospital perspective. All costs were presented in 2022 Australian dollars (AUD). Median regression analysis was used to adjust excess costs of index hospitalization whereas cumulative costs up to 1.5 years follow-up were estimated using interval-partitioned survival probabilities. RESULTS: Invasive Scedosporium/L. prolificans infections were independently associated with an adjusted median excess cost of AUD36 422 (P = 0.003) and LOS of 16.27 days (P < 0.001) during index hospitalization. Inpatient stay was the major cost driver (42.7%), followed by pharmacy cost, of which antifungal agents comprised 23.8% of the total cost. Allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplant increased the excess cost (P = 0.013) and prolonged LOS (P < 0.001) whereas inpatient death within ≤28 days reduced both cost (P = 0.001) and LOS (P < 0.001). The median cumulative cost increased substantially to AUD203 292 over 1.5 years in cases with Scedosporium/L. prolificans infections. CONCLUSIONS: The economic burden associated with invasive Scedosporium/L. prolificans infections is substantial.

Current Epidemiology and Clinical Features of Cryptococcus Infection in Patients Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus: A Multicenter Study in 46 Hospitals in Australia and New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Patients without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are increasingly recognized as being at risk for cryptococcosis. Knowledge of characteristics of cryptococcosis in these patients remains incomplete. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study of cryptococcosis in 46 Australian and New Zealand hospitals to compare its frequency in patients with and without HIV and describe its characteristics in patients without HIV. Patients with cryptococcosis between January 2015 and December 2019 were included. RESULTS: Of 475 patients with cryptococcosis, 90% were without HIV (426 of 475) with marked predominance in both Cryptococcus neoformans (88.7%) and Cryptococcus gattii cases (94.3%). Most patients without HIV (60.8%) had a known immunocompromising condition: cancer (n = 91), organ transplantation (n = 81), or other immunocompromising condition (n = 97). Cryptococcosis presented as incidental imaging findings in 16.4% of patients (70 of 426). The serum cryptococcal antigen test was positive in 85.1% of tested patients (319 of 375); high titers independently predicted risk of central nervous system involvement. Lumbar puncture was performed in 167 patients to screen for asymptomatic meningitis, with a positivity rate of 13.2% where meningitis could have been predicted by a high serum cryptococcal antigen titer and/or fungemia in 95% of evaluable cases. One-year all-cause mortality was 20.9% in patients without HIV and 21.7% in patients with HIV (P = .89). CONCLUSIONS: Ninety percent of cryptococcosis cases occurred in patients without HIV (89% and 94% for C. neoformans and C. gattii, respectively). Emerging patient risk groups were evident. A high level of awareness is warranted to diagnose cryptococcosis in patients without HIV.

Association between early treatment of multiple sclerosis and patient-reported outcomes: a nationwide observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Timing of disease-modifying therapy affects clinical disability in multiple sclerosis, but it is not known whether patient reported outcomes are also affected. This study investigates the relationship between treatment timing and patient-reported symptoms and health-related quality of life. METHODS: This was a nationwide observational cohort study of adults with relapsing multiple sclerosis, with disease onset between 2001 and 2016, and commenced on disease-modifying treatment within 4 years from disease onset. Patients commencing treatment within 0-2 years were compared with patients commencing treatment at 2-4 years. Indication bias was mitigated by propensity matching. Outcomes were patient-reported symptoms and health-related quality of life as measured by the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29) and EuroQol-5 Dimensions-3 Level (EQ-5D). The follow-up period was 4-10 years from disease onset. RESULTS: There were 2648 patients (69% female, median age 32.8) eligible for matching. Mean follow-up time was 3.7 years. Based on 780 matched patients, each year of treatment delay was associated with a worse MSIS physical score by 2.75 points (95% CI 1.29 to 4.20), and worse MSIS psychological score by 2.02 points (95% CI 0.03 to 3.78), in the adjusted models.Among 690 matched patients, earlier treatment start was not associated with EQ-5D score during the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier commencement of disease-modifying treatment was associated with better patient-reported physical symptoms when measured using a disease-specific metric; however, general quality of life was not affected. This indicates that other factors may inform patients' overall quality of life.

Heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories in patients with secondary progressive MS: a latent class analysis from Big MS Data network.

BACKGROUND: Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time. METHODS: All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4. RESULTS: A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Comparative effectiveness of cladribine tablets versus other oral disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis: Results from MSBase registry.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience. OBJECTIVES: Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs. METHODS: Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR). RESULTS: Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts. CONCLUSION: Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.

Time-to-hepatitis C treatment initiation among people who inject drugs in Melbourne, Australia.

This study aims to understand the time-to-treatment initiation pre and post DAA access to inform strategies to improve HCV care. The data for our study were derived from the SuperMIX cohort study of people who inject drugs in Melbourne, Australia. Time-to-event analysis using Weibull accelerated failure time was performed for data collected between 2009 and 2021, among a cohort of HCV-positive participants. Among 223 participants who tested positive for active hepatitis C infection, 102 people (45.7%) reported treatment initiation, with a median time-to-treatment of 7 years. However, the median time-to-treatment reduced to 2.3 years for those tested positive after 2016. The study found that treatment with Opioid Agonist Therapy (TR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.9), engagement with health or social services (TR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.9), and having a first positive HCV RNA test after March 2016 (TR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.3) were associated with a reduced time-to-treatment initiation. The study highlights the need for strategies to improve engagement with health services, including drug treatment services into routine HCV care to achieve timely treatment.

Childhood trauma is prevalent and associated with co-occurring depression, anxiety, mania and psychosis in young people attending Australian youth mental health services.

OBJECTIVES: Childhood trauma is common and associated with mental ill health. While high rates of trauma are observed across individual disorders, there is evidence that trauma is associated with an admixture of affective, anxiety and psychotic symptoms in adults. Given that early onset of mental disorder and trauma exposure herald poor outcomes, it is important to examine trauma prevalence rates in youth mental health services and to determine whether this trauma-related clustering is present in help-seeking young people. METHODS: We used data from the Transitions Study, a longitudinal investigation of young people attending headspace youth mental health services in Australia between January 2011 and August 2012. Participants were 775 young people aged 12-25. Childhood trauma was assessed using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Multinomial regression was used to assess whether reported childhood trauma was more strongly associated with the co-occurrence of depression, anxiety, mania and psychosis symptoms than with any one in isolation. RESULTS: Approximately 84% of participants reported some form of abuse (emotional: 68%; physical: 32%; sexual: 22%) or neglect (emotional: 65%; physical: 46%). Exposure to multiple trauma types was common. Childhood trauma was significantly associated with each symptom domain. More severe childhood trauma was more strongly associated with the co-occurrence of symptoms than with any one symptom domain in isolation, such that more severely trauma-exposed young people were more likely to experience increased symptom clustering. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood trauma is pervasive in youth mental health services and associated with a symptom profile that cuts across traditional diagnostic boundaries.

Patients' Views on AI for Risk Prediction in Shared Decision-Making for Knee Replacement Surgery: Qualitative Interview Study.

BACKGROUND: The use of artificial intelligence (AI) in decision-making around knee replacement surgery is increasing, and this technology holds promise to improve the prediction of patient outcomes. Ambiguity surrounds the definition of AI, and there are mixed views on its application in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to explore the understanding and attitudes of patients who underwent knee replacement surgery regarding AI in the context of risk prediction for shared clinical decision-making. METHODS: This qualitative study involved patients who underwent knee replacement surgery at a tertiary referral center for joint replacement surgery. The participants were selected based on their age and sex. Semistructured interviews explored the participants' understanding of AI and their opinions on its use in shared clinical decision-making. Data collection and reflexive thematic analyses were conducted concurrently. Recruitment continued until thematic saturation was achieved. RESULTS: Thematic saturation was achieved with 19 interviews and confirmed with 1 additional interview, resulting in 20 participants being interviewed (female participants: n=11, 55%; male participants: n=9, 45%; median age: 66 years). A total of 11 (55%) participants had a substantial postoperative complication. Three themes captured the participants' understanding of AI and their perceptions of its use in shared clinical decision-making. The theme Expectations captured the participants' views of themselves as individuals with the right to self-determination as they sought therapeutic solutions tailored to their circumstances, needs, and desires, including whether to use AI at all. The theme Empowerment highlighted the potential of AI to enable patients to develop realistic expectations and equip them with personalized risk information to discuss in shared decision-making conversations with the surgeon. The theme Partnership captured the importance of symbiosis between AI and clinicians because AI has varied levels of interpretability and understanding of human emotions and empathy. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who underwent knee replacement surgery in this study had varied levels of familiarity with AI and diverse conceptualizations of its definitions and capabilities. Educating patients about AI through nontechnical explanations and illustrative scenarios could help inform their decision to use it for risk prediction in the shared decision-making process with their surgeon. These findings could be used in the process of developing a questionnaire to ascertain the views of patients undergoing knee replacement surgery on the acceptability of AI in shared clinical decision-making. Future work could investigate the accuracy of this patient group's understanding of AI, beyond their familiarity with it, and how this influences their acceptance of its use. Surgeons may play a key role in finding a place for AI in the clinical setting as the uptake of this technology in health care continues to grow.

A comparative study of teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate within the Swedish MS Registry.

BACKGROUND: Teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate (DMF) are first-line disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis with similar labels that are used in comparable populations. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the effectiveness and persistence of teriflunomide and DMF in a Swedish real-world setting. METHODS: All relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in the Swedish MS registry initiating teriflunomide or DMF were included in the analysis. The primary endpoint was treatment persistence. Propensity score matching was used to adjust comparisons for baseline confounders. RESULTS: A total of 353 teriflunomide patients were successfully matched to 353 DMF. There was no difference in the rate of overall treatment discontinuation by treatment group across the entire observation period (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.91-1.39; p = 0.277; reference = teriflunomide). Annualised relapse rate (ARR) was comparable (p = 0.237) between DMF (0.07; 95% CI = 0.05-0.10) and teriflunomide (0.09; 95% CI = 0.07-0.12). There was no difference in time to first on-treatment relapse (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.50-1.21), disability progression (HR = 0.55; 95% CI = 0.27-1.12) or confirmed improvement (HR = 1.17; 95% CI = 0.57-2.36). CONCLUSION: This population-based real-world study reports similarities in treatment persistence, clinical effectiveness and quality of life outcomes between teriflunomide and dimethyl fumarate.

Increased rate of hospitalisation for COVID-19 among rituximab-treated multiple sclerosis patients: A study of the Swedish multiple sclerosis registry.

BACKGROUND: The primary objective of this study was to analyse the association between multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy (DMT) exposure and hospitalisation in patients infected with COVID-19. METHODS: Associations between MS DMT exposure and COVID-19 hospitalisation were analysed using univariable and multi-variable-clustered propensity score weighted logistic regression, where the models were clustered on the individual patients to control for patients contributing multiple COVID-19 episodes. FINDINGS: As of 18 January 2021, a total of 476 reported COVID-19 cases had been recorded in MS patients in the Swedish MS registry. Of these, 292 (61.3%) had confirmed COVID-19. The mean value (standard deviation (SD)) age at infection was 44.0 years (11.6). Of the 292 confirmed infections, 68 (23.2%) required hospitalisation. A total of 49 of the 164 confirmed COVID-19 patients on rituximab at baseline (29.9%) required hospitalisation, compared to a rate of 12.7% for all other DMTs combined. Rituximab in confirmed COVID-19 patients was associated with 2.95 times the odds of hospitalisation relative to any other DMT combined (odds ratio = 2.95; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.48-5.87). INTERPRETATION: Rituximab treatment, known to increase the risk of severe infections in general, also confers such a risk for MS patients with COVID-19, in comparison with other MS DMTs.

A multi-site, nurse-coordinated hepatitis C model of care in primary care and community services in Melbourne, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment through primary care and community-based services will be a critical component of HCV elimination. We evaluated a nurse-coordinated programme providing care across eight sites and analysed progression through the HCV care cascade. METHODS: People-accessing services from six primary care clinics, a homeless crisis accommodation provider and a mental health service were directly referred to nurses or engaged by nurses during regular clinic visits. Nurses supported HCV testing, treatment and follow-up. The prescription was provided by affiliated clinicians. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with treatment commencement and sustained virological response (SVR) testing. RESULTS: Of 640 people referred to and/or engaged by the nurses from January 2017 to July 2019, 518 had an HCV RNA test of whom 381 (74%) were HCV RNA positive. Treatment was commenced by 281 (74%) people of whom 161 had an SVR test, 157 (97.5%) were cured. Opioid agonist therapy was associated with treatment commencement (aOR 2.68, 95% CI 1.48-4.88). People who were homeless/unstably housed were less likely to commence treatment (aOR 0.45, 95% CI 0.23-0.87). Treatment prescription from a specialist (aOR 2.39, 95% CI 1.20-4.74) and recent injection drug use (<6 months) (aOR 2.15, 95% CI 1.07-4.31) was associated with SVR testing. CONCLUSION: A nurse-coordinated model of care led to high levels of HCV treatment uptake and cure amongst people attending primary care and community services. More tailored models of care may be beneficial for people who are homeless or have unstable housing. These results support primary care and community-based hepatitis C treatment.

Risk of requiring a wheelchair in primary progressive multiple sclerosis: Data from the ORATORIO trial and the MSBase registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ≥7.0 represents the requirement for a wheelchair. Here we (i) assess the effect of ocrelizumab on time to EDSS ≥7.0 over the ORATORIO (NCT01194570) double-blind and extended controlled periods (DBP+ECP), (ii) quantify likely long-term benefits by extrapolating results, and (iii) assess the plausibility of extrapolations using an independent real-world cohort (MSBase registry; ACTRN12605000455662). METHODS: Post hoc analyses assessing time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 in two cohorts of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (baseline EDSS 3.0-6.5) were investigated in ORATORIO and MSBase. RESULTS: In the ORATORIO DBP+ECP, ocrelizumab reduced the risk of 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 (hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.92; p = 0.022). Extrapolated median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.1 and 19.2 years for placebo and ocrelizumab, respectively (7.1-year delay [95% CI: -4.3 to 18.4]). In MSBase, the median time to 24-week confirmed EDSS ≥7.0 was 12.4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, ocrelizumab significantly delayed time to 24-week confirmed wheelchair requirement in ORATORIO. The plausibility of the extrapolated median time to reach this milestone in the placebo group was supported by observed real-world data from MSBase. Extrapolated benefits for ocrelizumab over placebo could represent a truly meaningful delay in loss of ambulation and independence.

Quality of Life in Chronic Limb Threatening Ischaemia: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the comparative effectiveness and temporal changes in quality of life (QoL) outcomes after revascularisation, major lower extremity amputation (MLEA), and conservative management (CM) in chronic limb threatening ischaemia (CLTI). DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and Web of Science. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed on QoL measured by any QoL instrument in adult patients with CLTI after open surgery (OS), endovascular intervention (EVI), MLEA, or CM. Randomised controlled trials and prospective observational studies published in any language between 1 January 1990 and 21 May 2021 were included. There was a pre-specified measurement time point of six months. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted on total scores for each QoL instrument. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations approach (PROSPERO registration: CRD42021253953). RESULTS: Fifty-five studies with 8 909 patients were included. There was significant heterogeneity in the methods used to measure QoL, and the study characteristics. In particular, 14 different QoL instruments were used with various combinations of disease specific and generic instruments within each study. A narrative summary is therefore presented. Comparative effectiveness data showed there was reasonable certainty that QoL was similar between OS and EVI at six months. Temporal outcomes suggested small to moderate improvements in QOL six months after OS and EVI compared with baseline. Limited data indicated that QoL can be maintained or slightly improved after MLEA or CM. Treatment effects were overestimated owing to small study effects, selective non-reporting, attrition, and survivorship bias. CONCLUSION: QoL after OS and EVI appears to be similar. Revascularisation may provide modest QoL benefits, while MLEA or CM can maintain QoL. However, certainty of evidence is generally low or very low, and interpretation is hampered by significant heterogeneity. There is a need for a CLTI specific QoL instrument and methodological standardisation in QoL studies.

The impact of three progressively introduced interventions on second wave daily COVID-19 case numbers in Melbourne, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The city of Melbourne, Australia experienced two waves of the COVID-19 epidemic peaking, the first in March and a more substantial wave in July 2020. During the second wave, a series of control measure were progressively introduced that initially slowed the growth of the epidemic then resulted in decreasing cases until there was no detectable local transmission. METHODS: To determine the relative efficacy of the progressively introduced intervention measures, we modelled the second wave as a series of exponential growth and decay curves. We used a linear regression of the log of daily cases vs time, using a four-segment linear spline model corresponding to implementation of the three successive major public health measures. The primary model used all reported cases between 14 June and 15 September 2020 then compared the projection of the model with observed cases predicting future case trajectory up until the 31 October 2020 to assess the use of exponential models in projecting the future course and planning future interventions. The main outcome measures were the exponential daily growth constants, analysis of residuals and estimates of the 95% confidence intervals for the expected case distributions, comparison of predicted daily cases. RESULTS: The exponential growth/decay constants in the primary analysis were: 0.122 (s.e. 0.004), 0.035 (s.e. 0.005), - 0.037 (s.e. 0.011), and - 0.069 (s.e. 0.003) for the initial growth rate, Stage 3, Stage 3 + compulsory masks and Stage 4, respectively. Extrapolation of the regression model from the 14 September to the 31 October matched the decline in observed cases over this period. CONCLUSIONS: The four-segment exponential model provided an excellent fit of the observed reported case data and predicted the day-to-day range of expected cases. The extrapolated regression accurately predicted the decline leading to epidemic control in Melbourne.

Low grade of radiographic osteoarthritis predicts unsatisfactory response of the contralateral knee replacement in two-stage bilateral total knee arthroplasty.

PURPOSE: It is difficult to counsel patients with bilateral osteoarthritis who are unsatisfied with their first knee replacement as to whether they are likely to have a better outcome after the contralateral knee is replaced. The purpose of this study was to determine whether predictive factors can be found to prognosticate outcome of the second-side knee replacement when a patient has an unsatisfactory response to the first, with the hypothesis that predictors, such as prosthetic factors and radiographic level of osteoarthritis, may be able to predict a satisfactory response to the contralateral knee replacement. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An analysis of staged bilateral knee replacements performed at a tertiary arthroplasty centre from 2012 to 2018 was undertaken. A total of 550 knee replacements in 275 patients were included in this study. The primary variable measured was the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) score. Satisfactory response to surgery was defined as a WOMAC score improved by 17 points or more, and 56 or greater. Patients who did not achieve a satisfactory response with their first knee replacement were further analysed for predictive factors (age, sex, pre-operative score, mental score, socioeconomic status, type of prosthesis, use of navigation, patella resurfacing and radiographic osteoarthritis) of an unsatisfactory response for their contralateral knee replacement. RESULTS: Overall, 44 (16%) patients failed to achieve a satisfactory response from both their first and contralateral knee replacements. The factor most predictive of an unsatisfactory response to their first knee replacement was pre-operative mental health score. However, in patients who did not achieve a satisfactory response with their first knee replacement, radiographic osteoarthritis, as measured by the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score was the main predictor of satisfactory response for their contralateral knee replacement. Only patients with KL grade 4 osteoarthritis were likely to have a satisfactory response with their contralateral knee replacements (KL4 versus KL3, Odds ratio 3.57 (CI 1.26-10.03) p = 0.016*). Patients with KL grade 3 osteoarthritis were unlikely to have a satisfactory response, and in this series, no patient with KL grade 2 osteoarthritis had a satisfactory response. CONCLUSION: In a patient who has an unsatisfactory response to their first knee replacement, the best predictor of achieving a satisfactory response to his/her contralateral knee replacement is the level of radiographic osteoarthritis in that knee. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: IV: Retrospective Cohort study.

No Difference in Quality-Of-Life Outcomes in the First 7 Years Following Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty Performed Using Computer Navigation Versus Conventional Referencing: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Computer navigation techniques can potentially improve both the accuracy and precision of prosthesis implantation in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) but its impact on quality-of-life outcomes following surgery remains unestablished. METHODS: An institutional arthroplasty registry was queried to identify patients with TKA performed between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2019. Propensity score matching based on demographical, medical, and surgical variables was used to match computer-navigated to conventionally referenced cases. The primary outcomes were Veterans RAND 12 Item Health Survey scores (VR-12 PCS and MCS), Short Form 6 Dimension utility values (SF-6D), and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in the first 7 years following surgery. RESULTS: A total of 629 computer-navigated TKAs were successfully matched to 1,351 conventional TKAs. The VR-12 PCS improved by a mean of 12.75 and 11.94 points in computer-navigated and conventional cases at 12-month follow-up (P = .25) and the VR-12 MCS by 6.91 and 5.93 points (P = .25), respectively. The mean VR-12 PCS improvement at 7-year follow-up (34.4% of the original matched cohort) for navigated and conventional cases was 13.00 and 12.92 points (P = .96) and for the VR-12 MCS was 4.83 and 6.30 points (P = .47), respectively. The mean improvement in the SF-6D utility score was 0.164 and 0.149 points at 12 months (P = .11) and at 7 years was 0.115 and 0.123 points (P = .69), respectively. Computer-navigated cases accumulated 0.809 QALYs in the first 7 years, compared to 0.875 QALYs in conventionally referenced cases (P = .65). There were no differences in these outcomes among a subgroup analysis of obese patients (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2). CONCLUSION: The use of computer navigation did not provide an incremental benefit to quality-of-life outcomes at a mean of 2.9 years following primary TKA performed for osteoarthritis when compared to conventional referencing techniques.

Impact of Anti-PD-1 and Anti-CTLA-4 on the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Reservoir in People Living With HIV With Cancer on Antiretroviral Therapy: The AIDS Malignancy Consortium 095 Study.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies to programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) and cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) may perturb human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) persistence during antiretroviral therapy (ART) by reversing HIV latency and/or boosting HIV-specific immunity, leading to clearance of infected cells. We tested this hypothesis in a clinical trial of anti-PD-1 alone or in combination with anti-CTLA-4 in people living with HIV (PLWH) and cancer. METHODS: This was a substudy of the AIDS Malignancy Consortium 095 Study. ART-suppressed PLWH with advanced malignancies were assigned to nivolumab (anti-PD-1) with or without ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4). In samples obtained preinfusion and 1 and 7 days after the first and fourth doses of immune checkpoint blockade (ICB), we quantified cell-associated unspliced (CA-US) HIV RNA and HIV DNA. Plasma HIV RNA was quantified during the first treatment cycle. Quantitative viral outgrowth assay (QVOA) to estimate the frequency of replication-competent HIV was performed before and after ICB for participants with samples available. RESULTS: Of 40 participants, 33 received nivolumab and 7 nivolumab plus ipilimumab. Whereas CA-US HIV RNA did not change with nivolumab monotherapy, we detected a median 1.44-fold increase (interquartile range, 1.16-1.89) after the first dose of nivolumab and ipilimumab combination therapy (P = .031). There was no decrease in the frequency of cells containing replication-competent HIV, but in the 2 individuals on combination ICB for whom we had longitudinal QVOA, we detected decreases of 97% and 64% compared to baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-PD-1 alone showed no effect on HIV latency or the latent HIV reservoir, but the combination of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTL-4 induced a modest increase in CA-US HIV RNA and may potentially eliminate cells containing replication-competent HIV. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT02408861.

Clinical outcomes in patients who discontinue natalizumab therapy after 2 years in the Tysabri® Observational Program (TOP).

BACKGROUND: Natalizumab is a highly efficacious therapy for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Patients who discontinue natalizumab may experience return of MS disease activity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze predictors of post-natalizumab disease activity return. METHODS: The Tysabri® Observational Program (TOP) is an ongoing observational study of natalizumab-treated RRMS patients. Patients discontinuing natalizumab are encouraged to remain in TOP. RESULTS: Analyses included 3221 TOP patients. After ⩾2 years on natalizumab, relapse risk was twice as high for patients who switched to an oral therapy (n = 660, hazard ratio (HR) = 2.18, p < 0.001) and three times as high for patients who switched to an injectable therapy (n = 95, HR = 3.02, p < 0.001) as for those who stayed on natalizumab (n = 2466). Relapse rates after switching remained below pre-natalizumab rates. In patients who switched to an oral therapy, higher relapse risk was predicted by longer washout time, more pre-natalizumab relapses, higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score at natalizumab initiation, and shorter natalizumab treatment duration. CONCLUSION: Patients who stayed on natalizumab had better clinical outcomes than those who switched to an oral or injectable therapy after ⩾2 years on natalizumab. These results highlight modifiable risk factors for disease activity return (e.g. natalizumab treatment duration and washout duration) to consider when making treatment decisions.