Malaria infection among adults residing in a highly endemic region from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: Adults infected with Plasmodium spp. in endemic areas need to be re-evaluated in light of global malaria elimination goals. They potentially undermine malaria interventions but remain an overlooked aspect of public health strategies. METHODS: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infections, to identify underlying parasite species, and to assess predicting factors among adults residing in an endemic area from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). A community-based cross-sectional survey in subjects aged 18 years and above was therefore carried out. Study participants were interviewed using a standard questionnaire and tested for Plasmodium spp. using a rapid diagnostic test and a nested polymerase chain reaction assay. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the effect of potential predictive factors for infections with different Plasmodium spp. RESULTS: Overall, 420 adults with an estimated prevalence of Plasmodium spp. infections of 60.2% [95% CI 55.5; 64.8] were included. Non-falciparum species infected 26.2% [95% CI 22.2; 30.5] of the study population. Among infected participants, three parasite species were identified, including Plasmodium falciparum (88.5%), Plasmodium malariae (39.9%), and Plasmodium ovale (7.5%) but no Plasmodium vivax. Mixed species accounted for 42.3% of infections while single-species infections predominated with P. falciparum (56.5%) among infected participants. All infected participants were asymptomatic at the time of the survey. Adults belonging to the "most economically disadvantaged" households had increased risks of infections with any Plasmodium spp. (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 2.87 [95% CI 1.66, 20.07]; p < 0.001), compared to those from the "less economically disadvantaged" households. Conversely, each 1 year increase in age reduced the risk of infections with any Plasmodium spp. (aOR = 0.99 [95% CI 0.97, 0.99]; p = 0.048). Specifically for non-falciparum spp., males had increased risks of infection than females (aOR = 1.83 [95% CI 1.13, 2.96]; p = 0.014). CONCLUSION: Adults infected with malaria constitute a potentially important latent reservoir for the transmission of the disease in the study setting. They should specifically be taken into account in public health measures and translational research.

Multimorbidity and frailty are associated with poorer SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: systematic review of population-based studies.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the risks and impacts of COVID-19 for different health groups at the population level is essential for orienting public health measures. Adopting a population-based approach, we conducted a systematic review to explore: (1) the etiological role of multimorbidity and frailty in developing SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related short-term outcomes; and (2) the prognostic role of multimorbidity and frailty in developing short- and long-term outcomes. This review presents the state of the evidence in the early years of the pandemic. It was conducted within the European Union Horizon 2020 program (No: 101018317); Prospero registration: CRD42021249444. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, World Health Organisation COVID-19 Global literature on coronavirus disease, and PsycINFO were searched between January 2020 and 7 April 2021 for multimorbidity and 1 February 2022 for frailty. Quantitative peer-reviewed studies published in English with population-representative samples and validated multimorbidity and frailty tools were considered. RESULTS: Overall, 9,701 records were screened by title/abstract and 267 with full text. Finally, 14 studies were retained for multimorbidity (etiological role, n = 2; prognostic, n = 13) and 5 for frailty (etiological role, n = 2; prognostic, n = 4). Only short-term outcomes, mainly mortality, were identified. An elevated likelihood of poorer outcomes was associated with an increasing number of diseases, a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index, different disease combinations, and an increasing frailty level. DISCUSSION: Future studies, which include the effects of recent virus variants, repeated exposure and vaccination, will be useful for comparing the possible evolution of the associations observed in the earlier waves.

Addressing misclassification bias in vaccine effectiveness studies with an application to Covid-19.

Safe and effective vaccines are crucial for the control of Covid-19 and to protect individuals at higher risk of severe disease. The test-negative design is a popular option for evaluating the effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines. However, the findings could be biased by several factors, including imperfect sensitivity and/or specificity of the test used for diagnosing the SARS-Cov-2 infection. We propose a simple Bayesian modeling approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness that is robust even when the diagnostic test is imperfect. We use simulation studies to demonstrate the robustness of our method to misclassification bias and illustrate the utility of our approach using real-world examples.

COVID-19 contact tracing at work in Belgium - how tracers tweak guidelines for the better.

BACKGROUND: When conducting COVID-19 contact tracing, pre-defined criteria allow differentiating high-risk contacts (HRC) from low-risk contacts (LRC). Our study aimed to evaluate whether contact tracers in Belgium followed these criteria in practice and whether their deviations improved the infection risk assessment. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in Belgium, through an anonymous online survey, sent to 111,763 workers by email. First, we evaluated the concordance between the guideline-based classification of HRC or LRC and the tracer's classification. We computed positive and negative agreements between both. Second, we used a multivariate Poisson regression to calculate the risk ratio (RR) of testing positive depending on the risk classification by the contact tracer and by the guideline-based risk classification. RESULTS: For our first research question, we included 1105 participants. The positive agreement between the guideline-based classification in HRC or LRC and the tracer's classification was 0.53 (95% CI 0.49-0.57) and the negative agreement 0.70 (95% CI: 0.67-0.72). The type of contact tracer (occupational doctors, internal tracer, general practitioner, other) did not significantly influence the results. For the second research question, we included 589 participants. The RR of testing positive after an HRC compared to an LRC was 3.10 (95% CI: 2.71-3.56) when classified by the contact tracer and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.94-2.60) when classified by the guideline-based criteria. CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that contact tracers did not apply pre-defined criteria for classifying high and low risk contacts. Risk stratification by contact tracers predicts who is at risk of infection better than guidelines only. This result indicates that a knowledgeable tracer can target testing better than a general guideline, asking for a debate on how to adapt the guidelines.

The direct disease burden of COVID-19 in Belgium in 2020 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: Burden of disease estimates have become important population health metrics over the past decade to measure losses in health. In Belgium, the disease burden caused by COVID-19 has not yet been estimated, although COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most important diseases. Therefore, the current study aims to estimate the direct COVID-19 burden in Belgium, observed despite policy interventions, during 2020 and 2021, and compare it to the burden from other causes. METHODS: Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are the sum of Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) due to disease. DALYs allow comparing the burden of disease between countries, diseases, and over time. We used the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model for COVID-19 to estimate DALYs related to COVID-19. Estimates of person-years for (a) acute non-fatal disease states were calculated from a compartmental model, using Belgian seroprevalence, social contact, hospital, and intensive care admission data, (b) deaths were sourced from the national COVID-19 mortality surveillance, and (c) chronic post-acute disease states were derived from a Belgian cohort study. RESULTS: In 2020, the total number of COVID-19 related DALYs was estimated at 253,577 [252,541 - 254,739], which is higher than in 2021, when it was 139,281 [136,704 - 142,306]. The observed COVID-19 burden was largely borne by the elderly, and over 90% of the burden was attributable to premature mortality (i.e., YLLs). In younger people, morbidity (i.e., YLD) contributed relatively more to the DALYs, especially in 2021, when vaccination was rolled out. Morbidity was mainly attributable to long-lasting post-acute symptoms. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in Belgium, especially in 2020, when COVID-19 would have been the main cause of disease burden if all other causes had maintained their 2019 level.

The non-fatal burden of cancer in Belgium, 2004-2019: a nationwide registry-based study.

BACKGROUND: The importance of assessing and monitoring the health status of a population has grown in the last decades. Consistent and high quality data on the morbidity and mortality impact of a disease represent the key element for this assessment. Being increasingly used in global and national burden of diseases (BoD) studies, the Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) is an indicator that combines healthy life years lost due to living with disease (Years Lived with Disability; YLD) and due to dying prematurely (Years of Life Lost; YLL). As a step towards a comprehensive national burden of disease study, this study aims to estimate the non-fatal burden of cancer in Belgium using national data. METHODS: We estimated the Belgian cancer burden from 2004 to 2019 in terms of YLD, using national population-based cancer registry data and international disease models. We developed a microsimulation model to translate incidence- into prevalence-based estimates, and used expert elicitation to integrate the long-term impact of increased disability due to surgical treatment. RESULTS: The age-standardized non-fatal burden of cancer increased from 2004 to 2019 by 6 and 3% respectively for incidence- and prevalence-based YLDs. In 2019, in Belgium, breast cancer had the highest morbidity impact among women, followed by colorectal and non-melanoma skin cancer. Among men, prostate cancer had the highest morbidity impact, followed by colorectal and non-melanoma skin cancer. Between 2004 and 2019, non-melanoma skin cancer significantly increased for both sexes in terms of age-standardized incidence-based YLD per 100,000, from 49 to 111 for men and from 15 to 44 for women. Important decreases were seen for colorectal cancer for both sexes in terms of age-standardized incidence-based YLD per 100,000, from 105 to 84 for men and from 66 to 58 for women. CONCLUSIONS: Breast and prostate cancers represent the greatest proportion of cancer morbidity, while for both sexes the morbidity burden of skin cancer has shown an important increase from 2004 onwards. Integrating the current study in the Belgian national burden of disease study will allow monitoring of the burden of cancer over time, highlighting new trends and assessing the impact of public health policies.

Non-specific symptoms and post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome in patients with Lyme borreliosis: a prospective cohort study in Belgium (2016-2020).

BACKGROUND: Patients with Lyme borreliosis (LB) may report persisting non-specific symptoms such as fatigue, widespread musculoskeletal pain or cognitive difficulties. When present for more than 6 months and causing a reduction in daily activities, this is often referred to as post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome (PTLDS). This study aimed to compare the occurrence of symptoms between LB patients and controls, to estimate the proportion of LB patients developing PTLDS and to identify risk factors. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was set up including three subpopulations: patients with an erythema migrans (EM) (i) or disseminated/late LB (ii) and a non-LB control group (iii). At 6- and 12-months follow-up, the occurrence of several symptoms, including six symptoms used to define PTLDS, i.e. muscle pain, joint pain, fatigue, memory problems, difficulties concentrating and problems finding words, and impact on daily activities, was compared between LB patients and controls. Finally, the proportion of LB patients developing PTLDS as defined by the Infectious Disease Society of America was estimated, including a time frame for symptoms to be present. RESULTS: Although the risk of presenting PTLDS-related symptoms was significantly higher in EM patients (n = 120) compared to controls (n = 128) at 6 months follow-up, the risk of presenting at least one of these symptoms combined with impact on daily activities was not significantly higher in EM patients, at either 6- or 12-months follow-up. A significant association was found between disseminated/late LB (n = 15) and the occurrence of any PTLDS-symptom with an impact on daily activities at both time points. The proportion of patients with PTLDS was estimated at 5.9% (95% CI 2.7-12.9) in EM patients and 20.9% (95% CI 6.8-64.4) in patients with disseminated/late LB (RR = 3.53, 95% CI 0.98-12.68, p = 0.053). No significant risk factors were identified, which may be explained by small sample sizes. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, PTLDS was present in both LB cohorts, yet with a higher percentage in disseminated/late LB patients. Additional research is needed into risk factors for and causes of this syndrome. In addition, development and validation of standardized methods to assess the PTLDS case definition, easily applicable in practice, is of great importance.

Biennial surveillance of Plasmodium falciparum anti-malarial drug resistance markers in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2017 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: Because of the loss of chloroquine (CQ) effectiveness, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)'s malaria treatment policy replaced CQ by sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) as first-line treatment of uncomplicated malaria in 2003, which in turn was replaced by artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) in 2005. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends monitoring of anti-malarial drug resistance every 2 years. The study aimed to provide baseline data for biennial molecular surveillance of anti-malarial drug resistance by comparing data from a study conducted in 2019 to previously published data from a similar study conducted in 2017 in the DRC. METHODS: From July to November 2019, a cross-sectional study was conducted in ten sites which were previously selected for a similar study conducted in 2017 across the DRC. P. falciparum malaria was diagnosed by a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) or by microscopy and dried blood samples (DBS) were taken from patients who had a positive test. Segments of interest in pfcrt and pfk13 genes were amplified by conventional PCR before sequencing. RESULTS: Out of 1087 enrolled patients, 906 (83.3%) were PCR-confirmed for P. falciparum. Like in the 2017-study, none of the mutations known to be associated with Artemisinine (ART) resistance in Southeast Asia was detected. However, non-synonymous (NS) mutations with unknown functions were observed among which, A578S was detected in both 2017 and 2019-studies. The overall prevalence of pfcrt-K76T mutation that confers CQ-resistance was 22.7% in 2019-study compared to 28.5% in 2017-study (p-value = 0.069), but there was high variability between sites in the two studies. Like in 2017-study, the pfcrt 72-76 SVMNT haplotype associated with resistance to amodiaquine was not detected. CONCLUSION: The study reported, within 2 years, the non-presence of molecular markers currently known to be associated with resistance to ART and to AQ in P. falciparum isolated in the DRC. However, the presence of polymorphisms with as-yet unknown functions was observed, requiring further characterization. Moreover, an overall decrease in the prevalence of CQ-resistance marker was observed in the DRC, but this prevalence remained highly variable from region to region.

Belgian population norms for the EQ-5D-5L, 2018.

PURPOSE: Health-related quality of life outcomes are increasingly used to monitor population health and health inequalities and to assess the (cost-) effectiveness of health interventions. The EQ-5D-5L has been included in the Belgian Health Interview Survey, providing a new source of population-based self-perceived health status information. This study aims to estimate Belgian population norms for the EQ-5D-5L by sex, age, and region and to analyze its association with educational attainment. METHODS: The BHIS 2018 provided EQ-5D-5L data for a nationally representative sample of the Belgian population. The dimension scores and index values were analyzed using logistic and linear regressions, respectively, accounting for the survey design. RESULTS: More than half of respondents reported problems of pain/discomfort, while over a quarter reported problems of anxiety/depression. The average index value was 0.84. Women reported more problems on all dimensions, but particularly on anxiety/depression and pain/discomfort, resulting in significantly lower index values. Problems with mobility, self-care, and usual activities showed a sharp increase after the age of 80 years. Consequently, index values decreased significantly by age. Lower education was associated with a higher prevalence of problems for all dimensions except anxiety/depression and with a significantly lower index value. CONCLUSION: This paper presents the first nationally representative Belgian population norms using the EQ-5D-5L. Inclusion of the EQ-5D in future surveys will allow monitoring over time of self-reported health, disease burden, and health inequalities.

Lyme borreliosis in Belgium: a cost-of-illness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-borne disease in Europe and North America, yet its economic burden remains largely unknown. This study aimed to estimate the economic cost associated with the different clinical manifestations of LB in Belgium. METHODS: An incidence approach and societal perspective were used to estimate the total cost-of-illness for LB in Belgium. Costs were calculated for patients with erythema migrans (EM) or disseminated/late LB, including patients who developed post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome (PTLDS). Direct medical, direct non-medical (transportation & paid help) and indirect non-medical costs (productivity losses) were included in the analysis. Ambulatory cost data were collected through a prospective cohort study from June 2016 to March 2020, in which patients with LB were followed up 6 to 12 months after diagnosis. Hospitalization costs were retrieved from the Minimal Clinical Data registry, a mandatory registry for all Belgian hospitals, linked to the Minimal Financial Data registry. Costs were expressed in 2019 euros. RESULTS: The total annual cost associated with clinical manifestations of LB in Belgium was estimated at €5.59 million (95% UI 3.82-7.98). Of these, €3.44 million (95% UI 2.05-5.48) or 62% was related to disseminated/late LB diagnoses and €2.15 million (95% UI 1.30-3.26) to EM. In general, direct medical costs and productivity losses accounted for 49.8% and 46.4% of the total costs, respectively, while direct non-medical costs accounted for only 3.8%. The estimated mean costs were €193 per EM patient and €5,148 per disseminated/late LB patient. While patients with PTLDS seemed to have somewhat higher costs compared to patients without PTLDS, the number of patients was too small to have representative estimates. CONCLUSIONS: We estimate the total annual direct medical costs, direct non-medical and indirect non-medical costs associated with LB to exceed €5.5 million per year, almost evenly distributed between EM (40%) and disseminated/late LB (60%). EM costs 26 times less per patient but occurs also 16 times more frequently than disseminated/late LB. The cost burden remains limited by comparison to other infectious diseases due to the relative lower incidence.

Temporal and Microspatial Heterogeneity in Transmission Dynamics of Coendemic Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in Two Rural Cohort Populations in the Peruvian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is highly heterogeneous: its changing malaria microepidemiology needs to be addressed to support malaria elimination efforts at the regional level. METHODS: A 3-year, population-based cohort study in 2 settings in the Peruvian Amazon (Lupuna, Cahuide) followed participants by passive and active case detection from January 2013 to December 2015. Incidence and prevalence rates were estimated using microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: Lupuna registered 1828 infections (1708 Plasmodium vivax, 120 Plasmodium falciparum; incidence was 80.7 infections/100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] , 77.1-84.5). Cahuide detected 1046 infections (1024 P vivax, 20 P falciparum, 2 mixed); incidence was 40.2 infections/100 person-years (95% CI, 37.9-42.7). Recurrent P vivax infections predominated onwards from 2013. According to PCR data, submicroscopic predominated over microscopic infections, especially in periods of low transmission. The integration of parasitological, entomological, and environmental observations evidenced an intense and seasonal transmission resilient to standard control measures in Lupuna and a persistent residual transmission after severe outbreaks were intensively handled in Cahuide. CONCLUSIONS: In 2 exemplars of complex local malaria transmission, standard control strategies failed to eliminate submicroscopic and hypnozoite reservoirs, enabling persistent transmission.

Integrating Parasitological and Entomological Observations to Understand Malaria Transmission in Riverine Villages in the Peruvian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Remote rural riverine villages account for most of the reported malaria cases in the Peruvian Amazon. As transmission decreases due to intensive standard control efforts, malaria strategies in these villages will need to be more focused and adapted to local epidemiology. METHODS: By integrating parasitological, entomological, and environmental observations between January 2016 and June 2017, we provided an in-depth characterization of malaria transmission dynamics in 4 riverine villages of the Mazan district, Loreto department. RESULTS: Despite variation across villages, malaria prevalence by polymerase chain reaction in March 2016 was high (>25% in 3 villages), caused by Plasmodium vivax mainly and composed of mostly submicroscopic infections. Housing without complete walls was the main malaria risk factor, while households close to forest edges were more commonly identified as spatial clusters of malaria prevalence. Villages in the basin of the Mazan River had a higher density of adult Anopheles darlingi mosquitoes, and retained higher prevalence and incidence rates compared to villages in the basin of the Napo River despite test-and-treat interventions. CONCLUSIONS: High heterogeneity in malaria transmission was found across and within riverine villages, resulting from interactions between the microgeographic landscape driving diverse conditions for vector development, housing structure, and human behavior.

Assessment of Plasmodium falciparum anti-malarial drug resistance markers in pfk13-propeller, pfcrt and pfmdr1 genes in isolates from treatment failure patients in Democratic Republic of Congo, 2018-2019.

BACKGROUND: The national policy for malaria treatment of the Democratic Republic of Congo recommends two first-line artemisinin-based combinations for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria: artesunate-amodiaquine and artemether-lumefantrine. This study investigated the presence of markers associated with resistance to the current first-line artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) in isolates of Plasmodium falciparum from treatment failure patients in the Democratic Republic of Congo. METHODS: From November 2018 to November 2019, dried blood spots were taken from patients returning to health centres for fever within 28 days after an initial malaria treatment in six sentinel sites of the National Malaria Control Programme across Democratic Republic of Congo. The new episode of malaria was first detected by a rapid diagnostic test and then confirmed by a real-time PCR assay to define treatment failure. Fragments of interest in pfk13 and pfcrt genes were amplified by conventional PCR before sequencing and the Pfmdr1 gene copy number was determined by a TaqMan real-time PCR assay. RESULTS: Out of 474 enrolled patients, 364 (76.8%) were confirmed positive by PCR for a new episode of P. falciparum malaria, thus considered as treatment failure. Of the 325 P. falciparum isolates obtained from 364 P. falciparum-positive patients and successfully sequenced in the pfk13-propeller gene, 7 (2.2%) isolates carried non-synonymous mutations, among which 3 have been previously reported (N498I, N554K and A557S) and 4 had not yet been reported (F506L, E507V, D516E and G538S). Of the 335 isolates successfully sequenced in the pfcrt gene, 139 (41.5%) harboured the K76T mutation known to be associated with chloroquine resistance. The SVMNT haplotype associated with resistance to amodiaquine was not found. None of the isolates carried an increased copy number of the pfmdr1 gene among the 322 P. falciparum isolates successfully analysed. CONCLUSION: No molecular markers currently known to be associated with resistance to the first-line ACT in use were detected in isolates of P. falciparum from treatment failure patients. Regular monitoring through in vivo drug efficacy and molecular studies must continue to ensure the effectiveness of malaria treatment in Democratic Republic of Congo.

Care-seeking behaviour and socio-economic burden associated with uncomplicated malaria in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to estimate the socio-economic costs of uncomplicated malaria and to explore health care-seeking behaviours that are likely to influence these costs in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a country ranked worldwide as the second most affected by malaria. METHODS: In 2017, a cross-sectional survey included patients with uncomplicated malaria in 64 healthcare facilities from 10 sentinel sites of the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) in the DRC. A standard questionnaire was used to assess health care-seeking behaviours of patients. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) and disutility weights (DW) of illness were evaluated by using the EuroQol Group's descriptive system (EQ-5D-3L) and its visual analogue scale (EQ VAS). Malaria costs were estimated from a patient's perspective. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) evaluated the uncertainty around the cost estimates. Generalized regression models were fitted to assess the effect of potential predictive factors on the time lost and the DW during illness. RESULTS: In total, 1080 patients (age: 13.1 ± 14 years; M/F ratio: 1.1) were included. The average total costs amounted to US$ 36.3 [95% CI 35.5-37.2] per malaria episode, including US$ 16.7 [95% CI 16.3-17.1] as direct costs and US$ 19.6 [95% CI 18.9-20.3] indirect costs. During care seeking, economically active patients and their relatives lost respectively 3.3 ± 1.8 and 3.4 ± 2.1 working days. This time loss occurred mostly at the pre-hospital stage and was the parameter associated the most with the uncertainty around malaria cost estimates. Patients self-rated an average 0.36 ± 0.2 DW and an average 0.62 ± 0.3 EQ-5D index score per episode. A lack of health insurance coverage (896 out of 1080; 82.9%) incurred substantially higher costs, lower quality of life, and heavier DW while leading to longer time lost during illness. Residing in rural areas incurred a disproportionally higher socioeconomic burden of uncomplicated malaria with longer time lost due to illness and limited access to health insurance mechanisms. CONCLUSION: Uncomplicated malaria is associated with high economic costs of care in the DRC. Efforts to reduce the cost-of-illness should target time lost at the pre-hospital stage and social disparities in the population, while reinforcing measures for malaria control in the country.

Investigating the drivers of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 hospital incidence-Belgium as a study case.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting nations globally, but with an impact exhibiting significant spatial and temporal variation at the sub-national level. Identifying and disentangling the drivers of resulting hospitalisation incidence at the local scale is key to predict, mitigate and manage epidemic surges, but also to develop targeted measures. However, this type of analysis is often not possible because of the lack of spatially-explicit health data and spatial uncertainties associated with infection. METHODS: To overcome these limitations, we propose an analytical framework to investigate potential drivers of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence when data are only available at the hospital level. Specifically, the approach is based on the delimitation of hospital catchment areas, which allows analysing associations between hospitalisation incidence and spatial or temporal covariates. We illustrate and apply our analytical framework to Belgium, a country heavily impacted by two COVID-19 epidemic waves in 2020, both in terms of mortality and hospitalisation incidence. RESULTS: Our spatial analyses reveal an association between the hospitalisation incidence and the local density of nursing home residents, which confirms the important impact of COVID-19 in elderly communities of Belgium. Our temporal analyses further indicate a pronounced seasonality in hospitalisation incidence associated with the seasonality of weather variables. Taking advantage of these associations, we discuss the feasibility of predictive models based on machine learning to predict future hospitalisation incidence. CONCLUSION: Our reproducible analytical workflow allows performing spatially-explicit analyses of data aggregated at the hospital level and can be used to explore potential drivers and dynamic of COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence at regional or national scales.

Pharmacovigilance of suspected or confirmed therapeutic ineffectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapy: extent, associated factors, challenges and solutions to reporting.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic ineffectiveness of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) increases the risk of malaria-related morbidity and mortality, and raises healthcare costs. Yet, little has been done to promote the pharmacovigilance (PV) of ACT ineffectiveness in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in Uganda. This study aimed to determine the extent and associated factors of the past 6 months reporting of suspected or confirmed ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness by healthcare professionals (HCPs), and difficulties and potential solutions to the PV of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness. METHODS: Survey of 685 HCPs conducted using a self-administered questionnaire from June to July 2018 in a nationally representative sample of public and private health facilities in Uganda. HCPs disclosed if they had spontaneously reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to appropriate authorities in the previous 6 months. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify determinants of past 6-months, HCP-reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness. RESULTS: One in five (20%, 137/685; 95% CI 17-23%) HCPs reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to an appropriate authority in the previous 6 months. HCPs commonly reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to immediate supervisors (72%, 106/147), mostly verbally only (80%, 109/137); none had ever submitted a written report of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness to Uganda's National Pharmacovigilance Centre. Common difficulties of reporting ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness were: unavailability of reporting procedures (31%, 129/421), poor follow-up of treated patients (22%, 93/421) and absence of reporting tools (16%, 68/421). Factors associated with reporting ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness in the past 6 months were: hospital-status (vs other; OR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.41-4.21), HCPs aged under 25 years (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.29-3.76), suspicion of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness in the past 4 weeks (OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.29-3.92), receipt of patient-complaint(s) of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness in the past 4 weeks (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 1.62-5.12) and HCPs from northern (vs central; OR = 0.5, 95% CI 0.28-0.93) and western (vs central; OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.17-0.77) parts of Uganda. CONCLUSION: One in five HCPs reported ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness, mostly verbally to supervisors. The existing adverse drug reaction (ADR)-reporting infrastructure could be leveraged to promote the PV of ACT therapeutic ineffectiveness.

Healthcare professionals' perspective can guide post-marketing surveillance of artemisinin-based combination therapy in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Efficient testing to identify poor quality artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is important to optimize efforts to control and eliminate malaria. Healthcare professionals interact with both ACT and malaria patients they treat and hence could observe, first-hand, suspect poor quality artemisinin-based combinations linked to poor malaria treatment outcomes and the factors associated with inappropriate use or treatment failure. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of 685 HCP perspectives about the efficacy of ACT between June and July 2018 at selected health facilities in Uganda. Medicine samples were obtained from the seven regions of Uganda and tested for quality using the Germany Pharma Health Fund™ minilabs. RESULTS: The average age of the 685 respondents was 30 (SD = 7.4) years. There was an almost equal distribution between male and female respondents (51:49), respectively. Seventy percent (n = 480) were diploma holders and the nurses contributed to half (49%, n = 334) of the study population. Sixty-one percent of the HCPs reported having ever encountered ACT failures while treating uncomplicated malaria. Nineteen percent of HCPs thought that dihydroartemisinin/piperaquine gave the most satisfactory patient treatment outcomes, while 80% HCPs thought that artemether/lumefantrine gave the least satisfactory patient treatment outcomes, possibly due to dosing schedule and pill burden. Healthcare professionals from the Central region (OR = 3.0, CI 0.3-1.0; P = 0.0001), Eastern region (OR = 5.4, CI 2.9-9.8; P = 0.0001) and Northern region (OR = 5.3, CI 2.9-9.9; P = 0.0001) had a higher chance of encountering ACT failure in 4 weeks prior to the survey as compared to those from the western region. Healthcare professionals from private health facilities also had higher chances of encountering ACT failures in past 4 weeks as compared to those from public health facilities (OR = 2.7, CI 1.7-3.9; P = 0.0001). All 192 samples passed the quality screening tests. The random sample of 10% of all samples randomly obtained by the laboratory staff also passed the chemical content analysis and dissolution tests. CONCLUSION: ACT medicines are widely available over-the-counter to the public and it is very difficult to report and monitor a decrease in efficacy or treatment failure. The perspectives of HCPs on treatment failure or lack of efficacy may potentially guide optimization efforts of sampling methodologies for the quality survey of ACT medicines.

Economic costs analysis of uncomplicated malaria case management in the Peruvian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: Case management is one of the principal strategies for malaria control. This study aimed to estimate the economic costs of uncomplicated malaria case management and explore the influence of health-seeking behaviours on those costs. METHODS: A knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey was applied to 680 households of fifteen communities in Mazan-Loreto in March 2017, then a socio-economic survey was conducted in September 2017 among 161 individuals with confirmed uncomplicated malaria in the past 3 months. Total costs per episode were estimated from both provider (Ministry of Health, MoH) and patient perspectives. Direct costs were estimated using a standard costing estimation procedure, while the indirect costs considered the loss of incomes among patients, substitute labourers and companions due to illness in terms of the monthly minimum wage. Sensitivity analysis evaluated the uncertainty of the average cost per episode. RESULTS: The KAP survey showed that most individuals (79.3%) that had malaria went to a health facility for a diagnosis and treatment, 2.7% received those services from community health workers, and 8% went to a drugstore or were self-treated at home. The average total cost per episode in the Mazan district was US$ 161. The cost from the provider's perspective was US$ 30.85 per episode while from the patient's perspective the estimated cost was US$ 131 per episode. The average costs per Plasmodium falciparum episode (US$ 180) were higher than those per Plasmodium vivax episode (US$ 156) due to longer time lost from work by patients with P. falciparum infections (22.2 days) than by patients with P. vivax infections (17.0 days). The delayed malaria diagnosis (after 48 h of the onset of symptoms) was associated with the time lost from work due to illness (adjusted mean ratio 1.8; 95% CI 1.3, 2.6). The average cost per malaria episode was most sensitive to the uncertainty around the lost productivity cost due to malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the provision of free malaria case management by MoH, there is delay in seeking care and the costs of uncomplicated malaria are mainly borne by the families. These costs are not well perceived by the society and the substantial financial impact of the disease can be frequently undervalued in public policy planning.

Molecular surveillance of anti-malarial drug resistance in Democratic Republic of Congo: high variability of chloroquinoresistance and lack of amodiaquinoresistance.

BACKGROUND: The loss of chloroquine (CQ) effectiveness has led to its withdrawal from national policies as a first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in several endemic countries, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The K76T mutation on the pfcrt gene has been identified as a marker of CQ resistance and the SVMNT haplotype in codons 72-76 on the same gene has been associated with resistance to amodiaquine (AQ). In the DRC, the prevalence of K76T has decreased from 100% in 2000 to 63.9% in 2014. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of K76T mutations in circulating strains of Plasmodium falciparum, 16 years after CQ withdrawal in the DRC and to investigate the presence of the SVMNT haplotype. METHODS: In 2017, ten geographical sites across the DRC were selected. Dried blood samples were collected from patients attending health centres. Malaria was first detected by a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) available on site (SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf or CareStart Malaria Pf) or thick blood smear and then confirmed by a P. falciparum species-specific real-time PCR assay. A pfcrt gene segment containing a fragment that encodes amino acids at positions 72-76 was amplified by conventional PCR before sequencing. RESULTS: A total of 1070 patients were enrolled. Of the 806 PCR-confirmed P. falciparum positive samples, 764 were successfully sequenced. The K76T mutation was detected in 218 samples (28.5%; 95% CI 25.4%-31.9%), mainly (96%) with the CVIET haplotype. Prevalence of CQ resistance marker was unequally distributed across the country, ranging from 1.5% in Fungurume to 89.5% in Katana. The SVMNT haplotype, related to AQ resistance, was not detected. CONCLUSION: Overall, the frequency of the P. falciparum CQ resistance marker has decreased significantly and no resistance marker to AQ was detected in the DRC in 2017. However, the between regions variability of CQ resistance remains high in the country. Further studies are needed for continuous monitoring of the CQ resistance level for its prospective re-use in malaria management. The absence of the AQ resistance marker is in line with the use of this drug in the current DRC malaria treatment policy.

Plasmodium vivax morbidity after radical cure: A cohort study in Central Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: In Vietnam, the importance of vivax malaria relative to falciparum during the past decade has steadily increased to 50%. This, together with the spread of multidrug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, is a major challenge for malaria elimination. A 2-year prospective cohort study to assess P. vivax morbidity after radical cure treatment and related risk factors was conducted in Central Vietnam. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study was implemented between April 2009 and December 2011 in four neighboring villages in a remote forested area of Quang Nam province. P. vivax-infected patients were treated radically with chloroquine (CQ; 25 mg/kg over 3 days) and primaquine (PQ; 0.5 mg/kg/day for 10 days) and visited monthly (malaria symptoms and blood sampling) for up to 2 years. Time to first vivax recurrence was estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and risk factors for first and recurrent infections were identified by Cox regression models. Among the 260 P. vivax patients (61% males [159/260]; age range 3-60) recruited, 240 completed the 10-day treatment, 223 entered the second month of follow-up, and 219 were followed for at least 12 months. Most individuals (76.78%, 171/223) had recurrent vivax infections identified by molecular methods (polymerase chain reaction [PCR]); in about half of them (55.61%, 124/223), infection was detected by microscopy, and 84 individuals (37.67%) had symptomatic recurrences. Median time to first recurrence by PCR was 118 days (IQR 59-208). The estimated probability of remaining free of recurrence by month 24 was 20.40% (95% CI [14.42; 27.13]) by PCR, 42.52% (95% CI [35.41; 49.44]) by microscopy, and 60.69% (95% CI [53.51; 67.11]) for symptomatic recurrences. The main risk factor for recurrence (first or recurrent) was prior P. falciparum infection. The main limitations of this study are the age of the results and the absence of a comparator arm, which does not allow estimating the proportion of vivax relapses among recurrent infections. CONCLUSION: A substantial number of P. vivax recurrences, mainly submicroscopic (SM) and asymptomatic, were observed after high-dose PQ treatment (5.0 mg/kg). Prior P. falciparum infection was an important risk factor for all types of vivax recurrences. Malaria elimination efforts need to address this largely undetected P. vivax transmission by simultaneously tackling the reservoir of P. falciparum and P. vivax infections.