Moving towards social inclusion: Engaging rural voices in priority setting for health.

BACKGROUND: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) in the context of limited resources will require prioritising the most vulnerable and ensuring health policies and services are responsive to their needs. One way of addressing this is through the engagement of marginalised voices in the priority setting process. Public engagement approaches that enable group level deliberation as well as individual level preference capturing might be valuable in this regard, but there are limited examples of their practical application, and gaps in understanding their outcomes, especially with rural populations. OBJECTIVE: To address this gap, we implemented a modified priority setting tool (Choosing All Together-CHAT) that enables individuals and groups to make trade-offs to demonstrate the type of health services packages that may be acceptable to a rural population. The paper presents the findings from the individual choices as compared to the group choices, as well as the differences among the individual choices using this tool. METHODS: Participants worked in groups and as individuals to allocate stickers representing the available budget to different health topics and interventions using the CHAT tool. The allocations were recorded at each stage of the study. We calculated the median and interquartile range across study participants for the topic totals. To examine differences in individual choices, we performed Wilcoxon rank sum tests. RESULTS: The results show that individual interests were mostly aligned with societal ones, and there were no statistically significant differences between the individual and group choices. However, there were some statistically significant differences between individual priorities based on demographic characteristics like age. DISCUSSION: The study demonstrates that giving individuals greater control and agency in designing health services packages can increase their participation in the priority setting process, align individual and community priorities, and potentially enhance the legitimacy and acceptability of priority setting. Methods that enable group level deliberation and individual level priority setting may be necessary to reconcile plurality. The paper also highlights the importance of capturing the details of public engagement processes and transparently reporting on these details to ensure valuable outcomes. PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: The facilitator of the CHAT groups was a member from the community and underwent training from the research team. The fieldworkers were also from the community and were trained and paid to capture the data. The participants were all members of the rural community- the study represents their priorities.

Facility standards and the quality of public sector primary care: Evidence from South Africa's "Ideal Clinics" program.

Primary healthcare systems are central to achieving universal healthcare coverage. However, in many low- and middle-income country settings, primary care quality is challenged by inadequate facility infrastructure and equipment, limited human resources, and poor provider process. We study the effects of a recent large-scale quality improvement policy in South Africa, the Ideal Clinics Realization and Maintenance Program (ICRMP). The ICRMP introduced a set of standards for facilities and a quality improvement process involving manuals, district-based support, and external assessment. Exploiting differential prioritization of facilities for the ICRMP's quality improvement process, we apply differences-in-differences methods to identify the effects of the program's efforts on standards scores and primary care quality indicators over the first 12 months of implementation. We find large and statistically significant increases in standards scores, but mixed effects on care outcomes-a small magnitude improvement in early antenatal care usage, null effects on childhood immunization and cervical cancer screening, and small negative effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care. While the ICRMP process has led to significant improvements in facilities' satisfaction of the program's standards, we were unable to detect meaningful change in care quality indicators.

Assessing sugar-sweetened beverage intakes, added sugar intakes and BMI before and after the implementation of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To provide insight into the context and public health implications of the South African sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax (Health Promotion Levy; HPL) by describing SSB and added sugar intakes, as well as BMI, 1 year prior to, at the time of and 1 year after implementation of the HPL. DESIGN: Longitudinal dietary intake was assessed using a quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ) and BMI was measured via anthropometry. SETTING: Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa. PARTICIPANTS: Adolescents, young adults and middle-aged adults (n 617). RESULTS: At baseline, median SSB intakes were 36 ml/d, 214 ml/d and 750 ml/d for those in low, medium and high consumption tertiles, respectively. SSB intake decreased by two times/week in medium consumers and seven times/week in high consumers between baseline and 12 months, equivalent to 107 ml/d and 536 ml/d reductions, respectively. These reduced levels were maintained in the following year (i.e. to 24 months). There was an overall decrease in the amount of energy consumed as added sugar in the low (-48 kJ/d), medium (-153 kJ/d) and high (-106 kJ/d) SSB consumption groups between baseline and 24 months; however, the percentage of total energy consumed as added sugar remained relatively consistent (between 10 and 11 %). There were small overall increases in BMI across low (0·6 kg/m2), medium (0·9 kg/m2) and high (1·0 kg/m2) SSB tertiles between baseline and 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest reductions in SSB and added sugar consumption contemporaneous to the introduction of the HPL - particularly for those with higher baseline intakes.

Attitudes and perceptions among urban South Africans towards sugar-sweetened beverages and taxation.

OBJECTIVE: A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was introduced in South Africa in April 2018. Our objective was to document perceptions and attitudes among urban South Africans living in Soweto on factors that contribute to their SSB intake and on South Africa's use of a tax to reduce SSB consumption. DESIGN: We conducted six focus group discussions using a semi-structured guide. SETTING: The study was conducted in Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa, 3 months before South Africa's SSB tax was implemented. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18 years or above living in Soweto (n 57). RESULTS: Participants reported frequent SSB consumption and attributed this to habit, addiction, advertising and wide accessibility of SSB. Most of the participants were not aware of the proposed SSB tax; when made aware of the tax, their responses included both beliefs that it would and would not result in reduced SSB intake. However, participants indicated cynicism with regard to the government's stated motivation in introducing the tax for health rather than revenue reasons. CONCLUSIONS: While an SSB tax is a policy tool that could be used with other strategies to reduce people's high level of SSB consumption in Soweto, our findings suggest a need to complement the SSB tax with a multipronged behaviour change strategy. This strategy could include both environmental and individual levers to reduce SSB consumption and its associated risks.

Sugary beverage taxation in South Africa: Household expenditure, demand system elasticities, and policy implications.

South Africa faces a severe and growing obesity epidemic. Obesity and its co-morbidities raise public and private expenditures on healthcare. Sugary beverages are heavily consumed in South Africa and are linked to the onset of overweight and obesity. Excise taxation of sugary beverages has been proposed and adopted in other settings as a means to reduce harms from their consumption. A tax on the sugar content of non-alcoholic beverages has been proposed for implementation in South Africa, however, the public health effects and revenue raising potential of this measure hinges on estimates of the targeted beverages own- and cross-price elasticities. This study applies demand system methods by combining expenditure survey data and sub-national price data to provide the first estimates of price and expenditure elasticities for categories of soft drinks that would be subject to South Africa's proposed sugary beverage tax. The results suggest that demand for these products is sufficiently price-elastic such that a significant reduction in consumption may result from a tax.

Energy drink consumption and marketing in South Africa.

Energy drinks are a fast-growing class of beverage containing high levels of caffeine and sugar. Advertising and marketing have been key to their growth in South Africa. This paper documents trends in energy drink consumption and energy drink advertising, and examines the relationship between exposure to energy drink advertising and consumption. Logistic regressions were estimated of categories of energy drink consumption on individual characteristics, as well as exposure to energy drink advertising. Exposure to advertising is measured by reported viewing of channels high in energy drink advertising. Energy drink consumption in South Africa is higher among younger, wealthier males. Spending on energy drink advertising is mostly focused on television. Targeted channels include youth, sports and general interest channels. Viewers of channels targeted by energy drink advertisers have higher odds of any and moderate levels of energy drinks consumption.

Response to a commentary by Barr (2022) on Edoka and Stacey (2020) estimating a cost-effectiveness threshold for healthcare decision-making in South Africa.

Methodological issues pose significant challenges to estimating marginal cost per unit of health. In this commentary, we revisit these challenges and respond to a recent commentary on the validity of previously estimated marginal cost per unit of health in South Africa.

Decomposing consumer and producer effects on sugar from beverage purchases after a sugar-based tax on beverages in South Africa.

Growing global concern about obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases has raised interest in fiscal policy as a tool to reduce this disease burden and its social costs, especially excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Of particular interest have been nutrient-based taxes to improve diet quality. These can incentivize producers to reformulate existing products and introduce healthier alternatives into their ranges. In 2018, South Africa adopted a sugar-based tax on SSBs, the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). Early findings suggest that purchases of higher-sugar taxable beverages fell and purchases of no- and lower-sugar beverages increased, alongside significant reductions in the sugar content of overall beverage purchases. However, underlying these changes are consumption shifts as well as product reformulation and changes in producers' product portfolios. Drawing on a household scanner dataset, this study employed a descriptive approach to decompose changes in the sugar content of households' non-alcoholic beverage purchases into producer factors (reformulation and product entry and exit) and consumer factors (product switching and volume changes as a result of price changes, changing preferences, or other factors). We look at these factors as the tax was announced and implemented across a sample of over 3000 South African households, and then by Living Standard Measures (LSM) groups (middle vs. high). The sugar content of beverage purchases fell by 4.9 g/capita/day overall, a 32% decrease. Taken in isolation, consumer switching and volume changes together led to a reduction equivalent to 71% of the total change, while reformulation accounted for a decrease equal to 34% of that change. Middle-LSM households experienced larger reductions than high-LSM households due to larger changes on the consumer side. For both LSM groups, reformulation-led reductions mostly occurred after implementation, and most changes came from taxable beverage purchases. As sugary drink tax designs evolve with broader implementation globally, understanding both supply- and demand-side factors will help to better assess the population and equity potential of these policies.

Foregone healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic: early survey estimates from 39 low- and middle-income countries.

In addition to the direct health effects of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the pandemic has increased the risks of foregone non-COVID-19 healthcare. Likely, these risks are greatest in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where health systems are less resilient and economies more fragile. However, there are no published studies on the prevalence of foregone healthcare in LMICs during the pandemic. We used pooled data from phone surveys conducted between April and August 2020, covering 73 638 households in 39 LMICs. We estimated the prevalence of foregone care and the relative importance of various reported reasons for foregoing care, disaggregated by country income group and region. In the sample, 18.8% (95% CI 17.8-19.8%) of households reported not being able to access healthcare when needed. Financial barriers were the most-commonly self-reported reason for foregoing care, cited by 31.4% (28.6-34.3%) of households. More households in wealthier countries reported foregoing care for reasons related to COVID-19 [27.2% (22.5-31.8%) in upper-middle-income countries compared to 8.0% (4.7-11.3%) in low-income countries]; more households in poorer countries reported foregoing care due to financial reasons [65.6% (59.9-71.2%)] compared to 17.4% (13.1-21.6%) in upper-middle-income countries. A substantial proportion of households in LMICs had to forgo healthcare in the early months of the pandemic. While in richer countries this was largely due to fear of contracting COVID-19 or lockdowns, in poorer countries foregone care was due to financial constraints.

Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, South Africa announced an intention to levy a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). In 2018, the country implemented an SSB tax of approximately 10%, known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). We aimed to assess changes in the purchases of beverages before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. METHODS: We used Kantar Europanel data on monthly household purchases between January, 2014, and March, 2019, among a sample of South African households (n=113 653 household-month observations) from all nine provinces to obtain per-capita sugar, calories, and volume from taxable and non-taxable beverages purchased before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. We describe survey-weighted means for each period, and regression-controlled predictions of outcomes and counterfactuals based on pre-HPL announcement trends, with bootstrapped 95% CIs, and stratify results by socioeconomic status. FINDINGS: Mean sugar from taxable beverage purchases fell from 16·25 g/capita per day (95% CI 15·80-16·70) to 14·26 (13·85-14·67) from the pre-HPL announcement to post-announcement period, and then to 10·63 g/capita per day (10·22-11·04) in the year after implementation. Mean volumes of taxable beverage purchases fell from 518·99 mL/capita per day (506·90-531·08) to 492·16 (481·28-503·04) from pre-announcement to post announcement, and then to 443·39 mL/capita per day (430·10-456·56) after implementation. Across these time periods, there was a small increase in the purchases of non-taxable beverages, from 283·45 mL/capita per day (273·34-293·56) pre-announcement to 312·94 (296·29-329·29) post implementation. When compared with pre-announcement counterfactual trends, reductions in taxable beverage purchase outcomes were significantly larger than the unadjusted survey-weighted observed reductions. Households with lower socioeconomic status purchased larger amounts of taxable beverages in the pre-announcement period than did households with higher socioeconomic status, but demonstrated bigger reductions after the tax was implemented. INTERPRETATION: The announcement and introduction of South Africa's HPL were followed by reductions in the sugar, calories, and volume of beverage purchases. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies, International Development Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, and the US National Institutes of Health.

South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: Excise tax findings and equity potential.

In 2016, the South African government proposed a 20% sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax. Protracted consultations with beverage manufacturers and the sugar industry followed. This resulted in a lower sugar-based beverage tax, the Health Promotion Levy (HPL), of approximately 10% coming into effect in April 2018. We provide a synthesis of findings until April 2021. Studies show that despite the lower rate, purchases of unhealthy SSBs and sugar intake consumption from SSBs fell. There were greater reductions in SSB purchases among both lower socioeconomic groups and in subpopulations with higher SSB consumption. These subpopulations bear larger burdens from obesity and related diseases, suggesting that this policy improves health equity. The current COVID-19 pandemic has impacted food and nutritional security. Increased pandemic mortality among people with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension highlight the importance of intersectoral public health disease-prevention policies like the HPL, which should be strengthened.

Availability and advertising of sugar sweetened beverages in South African public primary schools following a voluntary pledge by a major beverage company: a mixed methods study.

Background: Towards the end of the 2017 school year, a prominent beverage company in South Africa pledged to remove their sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and advertisements from primary schools in order to contribute to the realization of a healthy school environment.Objectives: To assess the availability and advertising of the company's beverages in public primary schools in Gauteng province following their voluntary pledge to remove the products, and to explore perceptions of school staff regarding SSB availability in schools and processes related to the implementation of the pledge.Methods: In 2019, we conducted a representative survey of public sector primary (elementary) schools in Gauteng province, South Africa. A random sample of schools was drawn, with schools stratified by whether or not they charge fees. This was a proxy for the socioeconomic status of the locale and student body. At each school, the availability of beverages and presence of advertising or not was assessed by an observational audit tool and differences across fee status assessed by Pearson χ2 test. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of school officials. Data from the interviews were coded and thematic analysis conducted.Results: Two years following a voluntary pledge, the company's carbonated SSBs were available for sale in 54% (CI: 45-63%) of schools with tuck shops and advertised in 31% (CI: 25-39%). Qualitative interviews revealed a complex landscape of actors within schools, which, combined with indifference or resistance to the pledge, may have contributed to the continued availability of SSBs.Conclusions: Though we were unable to examine SSB availability before and after the pledge, our findings provide some preliminary evidence that voluntary pledges by commercial entities are not sufficient to remove SSBs and advertisements from schools. Mandatory regulations coupled with in-depth engagement with schools may be an avenue to pursue in the future.

Estimating a cost-effectiveness threshold for health care decision-making in South Africa.

Cost-effectiveness thresholds are important decision rules that determine whether health interventions represent good value for money. In low- and middle-income countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) one to three times per capita gross domestic product (GDP) per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted has been the most widely used threshold for informing resource allocation decisions. However, in 2016, the WHO withdrew recommendations for using this threshold, creating a significant vacuum in South Africa and many countries that rely on results of cost-effectiveness analyses for making resource allocation decisions. This study estimates a cost-effectiveness threshold that reflects the health opportunity cost of health spending in South Africa using a three-step approach. First, marginal returns to health spending was estimated as health spending elasticity for crude death rates using a fixed effect estimation approach. Second, the opportunity cost of health spending was estimated as DALYs averted. Finally, a cost per DALY averted threshold was estimated as the inverse of the marginal product of health spending. We show that 1% of total health spending in 2015 (equivalent to approximately ZAR 1.54 billion/USD 120.7 million) averted 1050 deaths, 34 180 years of life lost, 5880 years lived with disability and 40 055 DALYs. The cost-effectiveness threshold was estimated at approximately ZAR 38 500 (USD 3015) per DALY averted, ∼53% of South Africa's per capita GDP in 2015 (ZAR 72 700/USD 5700) and lower than the previously recommended one to three times per capita GDP. As South Africa moves towards implementing universal health coverage reforms through National Health Insurance by 2025, the adoption of a threshold that reflects health opportunity costs will be crucial for ensuring efficiency in the allocation of scarce resources. This study provides useful insight into the magnitude of the health opportunity cost of health spending in South Africa and highlights the need for further research.

The potential global gains in health and revenue from increased taxation of tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages: a modelling analysis.

Introduction: Globally, a growing burden of morbidity and mortality is attributable to lifestyle behaviours, and in particular to the consumption of tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). In low-income and middle-income countries, this increased disease burden falls on already encumbered and resource-constrained healthcare systems. Fiscal policies, specifically taxation, can lower consumption of tobacco, alcohol and SSB while raising government revenues. Methods: We simulated the health and economic effects of taxing cigarettes, alcohol and SSB over 50 years for 30-79 years old populations using separate mathematical models for each commodity that incorporated country-level epidemiological, demographic and consumption data. Based on data availability, national-level health effects of higher tobacco, alcohol and SSB taxes were simulated in 141, 166 and 176 countries, respectively, which represented 92%, 97% and 95% of the global population, respectively. Economic effects for tobacco, alcohol and SSB were estimated for countries representing 91%, 43% and 83% of the global population, respectively. These estimates were extrapolated to the global level by matching countries according to income level. Results: Over 50 years, taxes that raise the retail price of tobacco, alcoholic beverages and SSB by 20% could result in a global gain of 160.7 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 96.3 to 225.2 million), 227.4 million (UI: 161.2 to 293.6 million) and 24.3 million (UI: 15.7 to 35.4 million) additional life years, respectively. Conclusion: Excise tax increases on tobacco, alcohol and SSB can produce substantial health gains by reducing premature mortality while raising government revenues, which could be used to increase public health funding.

The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia.

The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been rising. A key risk factor for NCDs is obesity, which has been partly linked to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). A tax on SSBs is an attractive control measure to curb the rising trend in NCDs, as it has the potential to reduce consumption of SSBs. However, studies on the potential effects of SSB taxes have been concentrated in high-income countries with limited studies in low-income and middle-income countries. Using data from the 2015 Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, the 2017 Zambia NCD STEPS Survey, and key parameters from the literature, we simulated the effect of a 25% SSB tax in Zambia on energy intake and the corresponding change in body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, deaths averted, life years gained and revenues generated using a mathematical model developed using Microsoft Excel. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to construct 95% confidence bands and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties in key parameters. We found that a 25% SSB would avert 2526 deaths, though these results were not statistically significant overall. However, when broken down by gender, the tax was found to significantly avert 1133 deaths in women (95% CI 353 to 1970). The tax was found to potentially generate an additional US$5.46 million (95% CI 4.66 to 6.14) in revenue annually. We conclude that an SSB tax in Zambia has the potential to significantly decrease the amount of disability-adjusted life years lost to lifestyle-related diseases in women, highlighting important health equity outcomes. Women have higher baseline BMI and therefore are at higher risk for NCDs. In addition, an SSB tax will provide government with additional revenue which if earmarked for health could contribute to healthcare financing in Zambia.

The distributional impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: findings from an extended cost-effectiveness analysis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Facing increasing obesity prevalence and obesity-related disease burden, South Africa has devised an obesity prevention strategy that includes a recently implemented tax on the sugar content of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We assess the potential distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of this tax on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence and associated mortality and its financial burden on households. METHODS: We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis of the new 10% tax on SSBs in South Africa, and estimated: the averted premature deaths related to T2DM, the financial benefits to households (out-of-pocket (OOP) medical costs and indirect costs due to productivity losses averted), the increased government tax revenues and healthcare savings for the government, all across income quintiles. FINDINGS: A 10% SSB tax increase would avert an estimated 8000 T2DM-related premature deaths over 20 years, with most deaths averted among the third and fourth income quintiles. The government would save about South African rand (ZAR) 2 billion (US$140 million) in subsidised healthcare over 20 years; and would raise ZAR6 billion (US$450 million) in tax revenues per annum. The bottom two quintiles would bear the smallest tax burden increase (36% of the additional taxes). The bottom two income quintiles would also have the lowest savings in OOP payments due to significant subsidisation provided by government healthcare. Lastly, an estimated 32 000 T2DM-related cases of catastrophic expenditures and 12 000 cases of poverty would be averted. CONCLUSIONS: SSB taxation would have a substantial distributional impact on obesity-related premature deaths, cost savings to the government and the financial outcomes of South Africa's population.

Sugar-based beverage taxes and beverage prices: Evidence from South Africa's Health Promotion Levy.

A growing number of jurisdictions are introducing taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in efforts to reduce sugar intake, obesity, and associated metabolic conditions. A key dimension of the impact of such taxes is how they induce changes in the prices of the taxed beverages and their un-taxed substitutes. At present these taxes have typically been based solely on volume. More recently, however, due to the potential to target the source of SSBs' health harms and to incentivize product reformulation, SSB taxes are being levied based on sugar content. In April of 2018 South Africa implemented such a tax, the Health Promotion Levy (HPL), at a rate of 0.021 ZAR (approximately 0.15 US cents) for each gram of sugar over an initial threshold of 4 g/100 ml. Drawing on a dataset of price observations (N = 71, 677) collected in South Africa between January 2013 and March 2019, we study changes in beverage prices following the introduction of the HPL. We find null price increases among un-taxed beverages and find significant price increases for carbonates, the largest taxed product category. However, within carbonates we find similar increases in price for low- and high-sugar brands, despite the underlying difference in tax liability. In addition, while we find evidence of product reformulation, we find significant price increases among the brands that reduced their sugar content. While the findings are broadly consistent with the price changes of volume-based SSB taxes, future considerations of price effects of sugar-based SSB taxes need to account for the opportunity for intra-firm heterogeneity in price response among large multi-product firms.

The direct medical cost of type 2 diabetes mellitus in South Africa: a cost of illness study.

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is known to require continuous clinical care and management that consumes significant health-care resources. These costs are not well understood, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the direct medical costs associated with T2DM in the South African public health sector and to project an estimate of the future direct costs of T2DM by 2030. Methods: A cost of illness study was conducted to estimate the direct medical costs of T2DM in South Africa in 2018 and to make projections for potential costs in 2030. Costs were estimated for diagnosis and management of T2DM, and related complications. Analyses were implemented in Microsoft Excel, with sensitivity analysis conducted on particular parameters. Results: In 2018, public sector costs of diagnosed T2DM patients were approximately ZAR 2.7 bn and ZAR 21.8 bn if both diagnosed and undiagnosed patients are considered. In real terms, the 2030 cost of all T2DM cases is estimated to be ZAR 35.1 bn. Approximately 51% of these estimated costs for 2030 are attributable to the management of T2DM, and 49% are attributable to complications. Conclusion: T2DM imposes a significant financial burden on the public healthcare system in South Africa. Treatment of all prevalent cases would incur a cost equivalent to approximately 12% of the total national health budget in 2018. With rising prevalence, direct costs will grow if current care regimes are maintained and case-finding improved. Increased financial resources are necessary in order to deliver effective services to people with T2DM.

Simulating the impact of excise taxation for disease prevention in low-income and middle-income countries: an application to South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Excise taxes are policy tools that have been applied internationally with some success to reduce consumption of products adversely impacting population health including tobacco, alcohol and increasingly junk foods and sugary beverages. As in other low-income and middle-income countries, South Africa faces a growing burden of lifestyle diseases; accordingly we simulate the impact of multiple excise tax interventions in this setting. METHODS: We construct a mathematical model to simulate the health and revenue effects of increased excise taxes, which is adaptable to a variety of settings given its limited data requirements. Applying the model to South Africa, we simulate the impact of increased tax rates on tobacco and beer and of the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). Drawing on surveys of product usage and risk factor prevalence, the model uses a potential impact fraction to simulate the health effects of tax interventions. RESULTS: Adopting an excise rate of 60% on tobacco would result in a gain of 858 923 life-years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 480 188 to 1 310 329), while adopting an excise rate of 25% on beer would result in a gain of 568 063 life-years (95% UI 412 110 to 775 560) and the adoption of a 20% tax on SSBs would result in a gain of 688 719 life-years (95% UI 321 788 to 1 079 653). CONCLUSION: More aggressive excise tax policies on tobacco, beer and SSBs in South Africa could result in meaningful improvements in population health and raised revenue.