Evaluating approaches for constructing polygenic risk scores for prostate cancer in men of African and European ancestry.

Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRSs) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRSs based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer-risk variants from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping studies (PRS269). GW-PRS models were trained with a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls that we previously used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS269. Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI = 0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI = 0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer ORs of 1.83 (95% CI = 1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI = 2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. Compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC = 0.679, 95% CI = 0.659-0.700 and AUC = 0.845, 95% CI = 0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer ORs (OR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.87-2.26 and OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation studies. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the PRS269 developed from multi-ancestry GWASs and fine-mapping.

DNA methylation and cis-regulation of gene expression by prostate cancer risk SNPs.

Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 100 SNPs that increase the risk of prostate cancer (PrCa). We identify and compare expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) and CpG methylation quantitative trait loci (meQTLs) among 147 established PrCa risk SNPs in primary prostate tumors (n = 355 from a Seattle-based study and n = 495 from The Cancer Genome Atlas, TCGA) and tumor-adjacent, histologically benign samples (n = 471 from a Mayo Clinic study). The role of DNA methylation in eQTL regulation of gene expression was investigated by data triangulation using several causal inference approaches, including a proposed adaptation of the Causal Inference Test (CIT) for causal direction. Comparing eQTLs between tumors and benign samples, we show that 98 of the 147 risk SNPs were identified as eQTLs in the tumor-adjacent benign samples, and almost all 34 eQTL identified in tumor sets were also eQTLs in the benign samples. Three lines of results support the causal role of DNA methylation. First, nearly 100 of the 147 risk SNPs were identified as meQTLs in one tumor set, and almost all eQTLs in tumors were meQTLs. Second, the loss of eQTLs in tumors relative to benign samples was associated with altered DNA methylation. Third, among risk SNPs identified as both eQTLs and meQTLs, mediation analyses suggest that over two-thirds have evidence of a causal role for DNA methylation, mostly mediating genetic influence on gene expression. In summary, we provide a comprehensive catalog of eQTLs, meQTLs and putative cancer genes for known PrCa risk SNPs. We observe that a substantial portion of germline eQTL regulatory mechanisms are maintained in the tumor development, despite somatic alterations in tumor genome. Finally, our mediation analyses illuminate the likely intermediary role of CpG methylation in eQTL regulation of gene expression.

A rare variant in EZH2 is associated with prostate cancer risk.

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is highly heritable, and although rare variants contribute significantly to PrCa risk, few have been identified to date. Herein, whole-genome sequencing was performed in a large PrCa family featuring multiple affected relatives spanning several generations. A rare, predicted splice site EZH2 variant, rs78589034 (G > A), was identified as segregating with disease in all but two individuals in the family, one of whom was affected with lymphoma and bowel cancer and a female relative. This variant was significantly associated with disease risk in combined familial and sporadic PrCa datasets (n = 1551; odds ratio [OR] = 3.55, P = 1.20 × 10-5 ). Transcriptome analysis was performed on prostate tumour needle biopsies available for two rare variant carriers and two wild-type cases. Although no allele-dependent differences were detected in EZH2 transcripts, a distinct differential gene expression signature was observed when comparing prostate tissue from the rare variant carriers with the wild-type samples. The gene expression signature comprised known downstream targets of EZH2 and included the top-ranked genes, DUSP1, FOS, JUNB and EGR1, which were subsequently validated by qPCR. These data provide evidence that rs78589034 is associated with increased PrCa risk in Tasmanian men and further, that this variant may be associated with perturbed EZH2 function in prostate tissue. Disrupted EZH2 function is a driver of tumourigenesis in several cancers, including prostate, and is of significant interest as a therapeutic target.

A polymorphism in the promoter of FRAS1 is a candidate SNP associated with metastatic prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation and one of its mediators, NF-kappa B (NFκB), have been implicated in prostate cancer carcinogenesis. We assessed whether germline polymorphisms associated with NFκB are associated with the risk of developing lethal disease (metastases or death from prostate cancer). METHODS: Using a Bayesian approach leveraging NFκB biology with integration of publicly available datasets we used a previously defined genome-wide functional association network specific to NFκB and lethal prostate cancer. A dense-module-searching method identified modules enriched with significant genes from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) study in a discovery data set, Physicians' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (PHS/HPFS). The top 48 candidate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from the dense-module-searching method were then assessed in an independent prostate cancer cohort and the one SNP reproducibly associated with lethality was tested in a third cohort. Logistic regression models evaluated the association between each SNP and lethal prostate cancer. The candidate SNP was assessed for association with lethal prostate cancer in 6 of 28 studies in the prostate cancer association group to investigate cancer associated alterations in the genome (PRACTICAL) Consortium where there was some medical record review for death ascertainment which also had SNP data from the ONCOARRAY platform. All men self-identified as Caucasian. RESULTS: The rs1910301 SNP which was reproducibly associated with lethal disease was nominally associated with lethal disease (odds ratio [OR] = 1.40; p = .02) in the discovery cohort and the minor allele was also associated with lethal disease in two independent cohorts (OR = 1.35; p = .04 and OR = 1.35; p = .07). Fixed effects meta-analysis of all three cohorts found an association: OR = 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-1.62, p = .0003). This SNP is in the promoter region of FRAS1, a gene involved in epidermal-basement membrane adhesion and is present at a higher frequency in men with African ancestry. No association was found in the subset of studies from the PRACTICAL consortium studies which had a total of 106 deaths out total of 3263 patients and a median follow-up of 4.4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Through its connection with the NFκB pathway, a candidate SNP with a higher frequency in men of African ancestry without cancer was found to be associated with lethal prostate cancer across three well-annotated independent cohorts of Caucasian men.

Marital status and prostate cancer incidence: a pooled analysis of 12 case-control studies from the PRACTICAL consortium.

While being in a committed relationship is associated with a better prostate cancer prognosis, little is known about how marital status relates to its incidence. Social support provided by marriage/relationship could promote a healthy lifestyle and an increased healthcare seeking behavior. We investigated the association between marital status and prostate cancer risk using data from the PRACTICAL Consortium. Pooled analyses were conducted combining 12 case-control studies based on histologically-confirmed incident prostate cancers and controls with information on marital status prior to diagnosis/interview. Marital status was categorized as married/partner, separated/divorced, single, or widowed. Tumours with Gleason scores ≥ 8 defined high-grade cancers, and low-grade otherwise. NCI-SEER's summary stages (local, regional, distant) indicated the extent of the cancer. Logistic regression was used to derive odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between marital status and prostate cancer risk, adjusting for potential confounders. Overall, 14,760 cases and 12,019 controls contributed to analyses. Compared to men who were married/with a partner, widowed men had an OR of 1.19 (95% CI 1.03-1.35) of prostate cancer, with little difference between low- and high-grade tumours. Risk estimates among widowers were 1.14 (95% CI 0.97-1.34) for local, 1.53 (95% CI 1.22-1.92) for regional, and 1.56 (95% CI 1.05-2.32) for distant stage tumours. Single men had elevated risks of high-grade cancers. Our findings highlight elevated risks of incident prostate cancer among widowers, more often characterized by tumours that had spread beyond the prostate at the time of diagnosis. Social support interventions and closer medical follow-up in this sub-population are warranted.

Self-reported Prostate Cancer Progression Status Is Accurate: A Validation Study.

BACKGROUND: Studies of prostate cancer progression are important for discovering risk factors that may increase the risk of prostate cancer-specific death; however, little is known about the validity of self-reported prostate cancer progression. METHODS: We conducted a validation study of self-reported prostate cancer progression in the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial and in a prostate cancer cohort enrolled in a Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC)-based study. We calculated measures of validity for self-reported progression, including sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value using medical records as the gold standard. RESULTS: Our results suggest that ascertaining prostate cancer progression-related events (i.e., prostate-specific antigen elevation, recurrence, metastasis, and use of secondary treatment) through self-report may be a viable option for identifying men whose disease has progressed after diagnosis or initial therapy, particularly when multiple questions related to progression are included in the assessment (aggregate cluster of questions: sensitivity = 0.76 [PLCO]; 0.93 [FHCRC], specificity = 0.80 [PLCO]; 0.97 [FHCRC]). With an aggregate positive predictive value of 0.50 (PLCO), however, our PLCO results suggest that additional medical record verification of self-reported progression events may be necessary to rule out false positives. Most individuals reporting no evidence of progression-related events, however, were true negatives (aggregate negative predictive value = 0.92 [PLCO]; 0.98 [FHCRC]). Thus, there may be limited utility to investing resources in chart review to confirm self-reported nonevents. CONCLUSION: Ascertaining prostate cancer progression through self-report provides an efficient and valid approach to enhancing existing cancer cohorts with updated data on progression status. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B658.

DNA methylation profiles in African American prostate cancer patients in relation to disease progression.

This study examined whether differential DNA methylation is associated with clinical features of more aggressive disease at diagnosis and prostate cancer recurrence in African American men, who are more likely to die from prostate cancer than other populations. Tumor tissues from 76 African Americans diagnosed with prostate cancer who had radical prostatectomy as their primary treatment were profiled for epigenome-wide DNA methylation levels. Long-term follow-up identified 19 patients with prostate cancer recurrence. Twenty-three CpGs were differentially methylated (FDR q≤0.25, mean methylation difference≥0.10) in patients with vs. without recurrence, including CpGs in GCK, CDKL2, PRDM13, and ZFR2. Methylation differences were also observed between men with metastatic-lethal prostate cancer vs. no recurrence (five CpGs), regional vs. local pathological stage (two CpGs), and higher vs. lower tumor aggressiveness (one CpG). These results indicate that differentially methylated CpG sites identified in tumor tissues of African American men may contribute to prostate cancer aggressiveness.

A four-gene transcript score to predict metastatic-lethal progression in men treated for localized prostate cancer: Development and validation studies.

BACKGROUND: Molecular studies have tried to address the unmet need for prognostic biomarkers in prostate cancer (PCa). Some gene expression tests improve upon clinical factors for prediction of outcomes, but additional tools for accurate prediction of tumor aggressiveness are needed. METHODS: Based on a previously published panel of 23 gene transcripts that distinguished patients with metastatic progression, we constructed a prediction model using independent training and testing datasets. Using the validated messenger RNAs and Gleason score (GS), we performed model selection in the training set to define a final locked model to classify patients who developed metastatic-lethal events from those who remained recurrence-free. In an independent testing dataset, we compared our locked model to established clinical prognostic factors and utilized Kaplan-Meier curves and receiver operating characteristic analyses to evaluate the model's performance. RESULTS: Thirteen of 23 previously identified gene transcripts that stratified patients with aggressive PCa were validated in the training dataset. These biomarkers plus GS were used to develop a four-gene (CST2, FBLN1, TNFRSF19, and ZNF704) transcript (4GT) score that was significantly higher in patients who progressed to metastatic-lethal events compared to those without recurrence in the testing dataset (P = 5.7 × 10-11 ). The 4GT score provided higher prediction accuracy (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69-0.83; partial area under the ROC curve [pAUC] = 0.008) than GS alone (AUC = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.56-0.70; pAUC = 0.002), and it improved risk stratification in subgroups defined by a combination of clinicopathological features (ie, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment-Surgery). CONCLUSION: Our validated 4GT score has prognostic value for metastatic-lethal progression in men treated for localized PCa and warrants further evaluation for its clinical utility.

Biallelic BRCA2 Mutations Shape the Somatic Mutational Landscape of Aggressive Prostate Tumors.

To identify clinically important molecular subtypes of prostate cancer (PCa), we characterized the somatic landscape of aggressive tumors via deep, whole-genome sequencing. In our discovery set of ten tumor/normal subject pairs with Gleason scores of 8-10 at diagnosis, coordinated analysis of germline and somatic variants, including single-nucleotide variants, indels, and structural variants, revealed biallelic BRCA2 disruptions in a subset of samples. Compared to the other samples, the PCa BRCA2-deficient tumors exhibited a complex and highly specific mutation signature, featuring a 2.88-fold increased somatic mutation rate, depletion of context-specific C>T substitutions, and an enrichment for deletions, especially those longer than 10 bp. We next performed a BRCA2 deficiency-targeted reanalysis of 150 metastatic PCa tumors, and each of the 18 BRCA2-mutated samples recapitulated the BRCA2 deficiency-associated mutation signature, underscoring the potent influence of these lesions on somatic mutagenesis and tumor evolution. Among all 21 individuals with BRCA2-deficient tumors, only about half carried deleterious germline alleles. Importantly, the somatic mutation signature in tumors with one germline and one somatic risk allele was indistinguishable from those with purely somatic mutations. Our observations clearly demonstrate that BRCA2-disrupted tumors represent a unique and clinically relevant molecular subtype of aggressive PCa, highlighting both the promise and utility of this mutation signature as a prognostic and treatment-selection biomarker. Further, any test designed to leverage BRCA2 status as a biomarker for PCa must consider both germline and somatic mutations and all types of deleterious mutations.

REVEL: An Ensemble Method for Predicting the Pathogenicity of Rare Missense Variants.

The vast majority of coding variants are rare, and assessment of the contribution of rare variants to complex traits is hampered by low statistical power and limited functional data. Improved methods for predicting the pathogenicity of rare coding variants are needed to facilitate the discovery of disease variants from exome sequencing studies. We developed REVEL (rare exome variant ensemble learner), an ensemble method for predicting the pathogenicity of missense variants on the basis of individual tools: MutPred, FATHMM, VEST, PolyPhen, SIFT, PROVEAN, MutationAssessor, MutationTaster, LRT, GERP, SiPhy, phyloP, and phastCons. REVEL was trained with recently discovered pathogenic and rare neutral missense variants, excluding those previously used to train its constituent tools. When applied to two independent test sets, REVEL had the best overall performance (p < 10-12) as compared to any individual tool and seven ensemble methods: MetaSVM, MetaLR, KGGSeq, Condel, CADD, DANN, and Eigen. Importantly, REVEL also had the best performance for distinguishing pathogenic from rare neutral variants with allele frequencies <0.5%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for REVEL was 0.046-0.182 higher in an independent test set of 935 recent SwissVar disease variants and 123,935 putatively neutral exome sequencing variants and 0.027-0.143 higher in an independent test set of 1,953 pathogenic and 2,406 benign variants recently reported in ClinVar than the AUCs for other ensemble methods. We provide pre-computed REVEL scores for all possible human missense variants to facilitate the identification of pathogenic variants in the sea of rare variants discovered as sequencing studies expand in scale.

AA9int: SNP interaction pattern search using non-hierarchical additive model set.

Motivation: The use of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions to predict complex diseases is getting more attention during the past decade, but related statistical methods are still immature. We previously proposed the SNP Interaction Pattern Identifier (SIPI) approach to evaluate 45 SNP interaction patterns/patterns. SIPI is statistically powerful but suffers from a large computation burden. For large-scale studies, it is necessary to use a powerful and computation-efficient method. The objective of this study is to develop an evidence-based mini-version of SIPI as the screening tool or solitary use and to evaluate the impact of inheritance mode and model structure on detecting SNP-SNP interactions. Results: We tested two candidate approaches: the 'Five-Full' and 'AA9int' method. The Five-Full approach is composed of the five full interaction models considering three inheritance modes (additive, dominant and recessive). The AA9int approach is composed of nine interaction models by considering non-hierarchical model structure and the additive mode. Our simulation results show that AA9int has similar statistical power compared to SIPI and is superior to the Five-Full approach, and the impact of the non-hierarchical model structure is greater than that of the inheritance mode in detecting SNP-SNP interactions. In summary, it is recommended that AA9int is a powerful tool to be used either alone or as the screening stage of a two-stage approach (AA9int+SIPI) for detecting SNP-SNP interactions in large-scale studies. Availability and implementation: The 'AA9int' and 'parAA9int' functions (standard and parallel computing version) are added in the SIPI R package, which is freely available at https://linhuiyi.github.io/LinHY_Software/. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

gsSKAT: Rapid gene set analysis and multiple testing correction for rare-variant association studies using weighted linear kernels.

Next-generation sequencing technologies have afforded unprecedented characterization of low-frequency and rare genetic variation. Due to low power for single-variant testing, aggregative methods are commonly used to combine observed rare variation within a single gene. Causal variation may also aggregate across multiple genes within relevant biomolecular pathways. Kernel-machine regression and adaptive testing methods for aggregative rare-variant association testing have been demonstrated to be powerful approaches for pathway-level analysis, although these methods tend to be computationally intensive at high-variant dimensionality and require access to complete data. An additional analytical issue in scans of large pathway definition sets is multiple testing correction. Gene set definitions may exhibit substantial genic overlap, and the impact of the resultant correlation in test statistics on Type I error rate control for large agnostic gene set scans has not been fully explored. Herein, we first outline a statistical strategy for aggregative rare-variant analysis using component gene-level linear kernel score test summary statistics as well as derive simple estimators of the effective number of tests for family-wise error rate control. We then conduct extensive simulation studies to characterize the behavior of our approach relative to direct application of kernel and adaptive methods under a variety of conditions. We also apply our method to two case-control studies, respectively, evaluating rare variation in hereditary prostate cancer and schizophrenia. Finally, we provide open-source R code for public use to facilitate easy application of our methods to existing rare-variant analysis results.

Prostate cancer risk regions at 8q24 and 17q24 are differentially associated with somatic TMPRSS2:ERG fusion status.

Molecular and epidemiological differences have been described between TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive and fusion-negative prostate cancer (PrCa). Assuming two molecularly distinct subtypes, we have examined 27 common PrCa risk variants, previously identified in genome-wide association studies, for subtype specific associations in a total of 1221 TMPRSS2:ERG phenotyped PrCa cases. In meta-analyses of a discovery set of 552 cases with TMPRSS2:ERG data and 7650 unaffected men from five centers we have found support for the hypothesis that several common risk variants are associated with one particular subtype rather than with PrCa in general. Risk variants were analyzed in case-case comparisons (296 TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive versus 256 fusion-negative cases) and an independent set of 669 cases with TMPRSS2:ERG data was established to replicate the top five candidates. Significant differences (P < 0.00185) between the two subtypes were observed for rs16901979 (8q24) and rs1859962 (17q24), which were enriched in TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-negative (OR = 0.53, P = 0.0007) and TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive PrCa (OR = 1.30, P = 0.0016), respectively. Expression quantitative trait locus analysis was performed to investigate mechanistic links between risk variants, fusion status and target gene mRNA levels. For rs1859962 at 17q24, genotype dependent expression was observed for the candidate target gene SOX9 in TMPRSS2:ERG fusion-positive PrCa, which was not evident in TMPRSS2:ERG negative tumors. The present study established evidence for the first two common PrCa risk variants differentially associated with TMPRSS2:ERG fusion status. TMPRSS2:ERG phenotyping of larger studies is required to determine comprehensive sets of variants with subtype-specific roles in PrCa.

A five-CpG DNA methylation score to predict metastatic-lethal outcomes in men treated with radical prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic biomarkers for localized prostate cancer (PCa) could improve personalized medicine. Our group previously identified a panel of differentially methylated CpGs in primary tumor tissue that predict disease aggressiveness, and here we further validate these biomarkers. METHODS: Pyrosequencing was used to assess CpG methylation of eight biomarkers previously identified using the HumanMethylation450 array; CpGs with strongly correlated (r >0.70) results were considered technically validated. Logistic regression incorporating the validated CpGs and Gleason sum was used to define and lock a final model to stratify men with metastatic-lethal versus non-recurrent PCa in a training dataset. Coefficients from the final model were then used to construct a DNA methylation score, which was evaluated by logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses in an independent testing dataset. RESULTS: Five CpGs were technically validated and all were retained (P < 0.05) in the final model. The 5-CpG and Gleason sum coefficients were used to calculate a methylation score, which was higher in men with metastatic-lethal progression (P = 6.8 × 10-6 ) in the testing dataset. For each unit increase in the score there was a four-fold increase in risk of metastatic-lethal events (odds ratio, OR = 4.0, 95%CI = 1.8-14.3). At 95% specificity, sensitivity was 74% for the score compared to 53% for Gleason sum alone. The score demonstrated better prediction performance (AUC = 0.91; pAUC = 0.037) compared to Gleason sum alone (AUC = 0.87; pAUC = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: The DNA methylation score improved upon Gleason sum for predicting metastatic-lethal progression and holds promise for risk stratification of men with aggressive tumors. This prognostic score warrants further evaluation as a tool for improving patient outcomes.

Height, selected genetic markers and prostate cancer risk: results from the PRACTICAL consortium.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2017.231.

Gene and pathway level analyses of germline DNA-repair gene variants and prostate cancer susceptibility using the iCOGS-genotyping array.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/bjc.2016.50.

SNP interaction pattern identifier (SIPI): an intensive search for SNP-SNP interaction patterns.

Motivation: Testing SNP-SNP interactions is considered as a key for overcoming bottlenecks of genetic association studies. However, related statistical methods for testing SNP-SNP interactions are underdeveloped. Results: We propose the SNP Interaction Pattern Identifier (SIPI), which tests 45 biologically meaningful interaction patterns for a binary outcome. SIPI takes non-hierarchical models, inheritance modes and mode coding direction into consideration. The simulation results show that SIPI has higher power than MDR (Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction), AA_Full, Geno_Full (full interaction model with additive or genotypic mode) and SNPassoc in detecting interactions. Applying SIPI to the prostate cancer PRACTICAL consortium data with approximately 21 000 patients, the four SNP pairs in EGFR-EGFR , EGFR-MMP16 and EGFR-CSF1 were found to be associated with prostate cancer aggressiveness with the exact or similar pattern in the discovery and validation sets. A similar match for external validation of SNP-SNP interaction studies is suggested. We demonstrated that SIPI not only searches for more meaningful interaction patterns but can also overcome the unstable nature of interaction patterns. Availability and Implementation: The SIPI software is freely available at http://publichealth.lsuhsc.edu/LinSoftware/ . Contact: hlin1@lsuhsc.edu. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Combining multiple biomarkers linearly to maximize the partial area under the ROC curve.

It is now common in clinical practice to make clinical decisions based on combinations of multiple biomarkers. In this paper, we propose new approaches for combining multiple biomarkers linearly to maximize the partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (pAUC). The parametric and nonparametric methods that have been developed for this purpose have limitations. When the biomarker values for populations with and without a given disease follow a multivariate normal distribution, it is easy to implement our proposed parametric approach, which adopts an alternative analytic expression of the pAUC. When normality assumptions are violated, a kernel-based approach is presented, which handles multiple biomarkers simultaneously. We evaluated the proposed as well as existing methods through simulations and discovered that when the covariance matrices for the disease and nondisease samples are disproportional, traditional methods (such as the logistic regression) are more likely to fail to maximize the pAUC while the proposed methods are more robust. The proposed approaches are illustrated through application to a prostate cancer data set, and a rank-based leave-one-out cross-validation procedure is proposed to obtain a realistic estimate of the pAUC when there is no independent validation set available.

Post hoc Analysis for Detecting Individual Rare Variant Risk Associations Using Probit Regression Bayesian Variable Selection Methods in Case-Control Sequencing Studies.

Rare variants (RVs) have been shown to be significant contributors to complex disease risk. By definition, these variants have very low minor allele frequencies and traditional single-marker methods for statistical analysis are underpowered for typical sequencing study sample sizes. Multimarker burden-type approaches attempt to identify aggregation of RVs across case-control status by analyzing relatively small partitions of the genome, such as genes. However, it is generally the case that the aggregative measure would be a mixture of causal and neutral variants, and these omnibus tests do not directly provide any indication of which RVs may be driving a given association. Recently, Bayesian variable selection approaches have been proposed to identify RV associations from a large set of RVs under consideration. Although these approaches have been shown to be powerful at detecting associations at the RV level, there are often computational limitations on the total quantity of RVs under consideration and compromises are necessary for large-scale application. Here, we propose a computationally efficient alternative formulation of this method using a probit regression approach specifically capable of simultaneously analyzing hundreds to thousands of RVs. We evaluate our approach to detect causal variation on simulated data and examine sensitivity and specificity in instances of high RV dimensionality as well as apply it to pathway-level RV analysis results from a prostate cancer (PC) risk case-control sequencing study. Finally, we discuss potential extensions and future directions of this work.

Alcohol consumption and prostate cancer incidence and progression: A Mendelian randomisation study.

Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men in developed countries, and is a target for risk reduction strategies. The effects of alcohol consumption on prostate cancer incidence and survival remain unclear, potentially due to methodological limitations of observational studies. In this study, we investigated the associations of genetic variants in alcohol-metabolising genes with prostate cancer incidence and survival. We analysed data from 23,868 men with prostate cancer and 23,051 controls from 25 studies within the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Study-specific associations of 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 8 alcohol-metabolising genes (Alcohol Dehydrogenases (ADHs) and Aldehyde Dehydrogenases (ALDHs)) with prostate cancer diagnosis and prostate cancer-specific mortality, by grade, were assessed using logistic and Cox regression models, respectively. The data across the 25 studies were meta-analysed using fixed-effect and random-effects models. We found little evidence that variants in alcohol metabolising genes were associated with prostate cancer diagnosis. Four variants in two genes exceeded the multiple testing threshold for associations with prostate cancer mortality in fixed-effect meta-analyses. SNPs within ALDH1A2 associated with prostate cancer mortality were rs1441817 (fixed effects hazard ratio, HRfixed = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.66,0.91; p values = 0.002); rs12910509, HRfixed = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.003); and rs8041922 (HRfixed = 0.76; 95%CI:0.64,0.91; p values = 0.002). These SNPs were in linkage disequilibrium with each other. In ALDH1B1, rs10973794 (HRfixed = 1.43; 95%CI:1.14,1.79; p values = 0.002) was associated with prostate cancer mortality in men with low-grade prostate cancer. These results suggest that alcohol consumption is unlikely to affect prostate cancer incidence, but it may influence disease progression.