Harmful algae and climate change on the Canadian East Coast: Exploring occurrence predictions of Dinophysis acuminata, D. norvegica, and Pseudo-nitzschia seriata.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a threat to human health, local economies, and coastal ecosystems. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) were fitted using a 24-y database in order to predict future occurrences of three distinct species of HABs on the Canadian East Coast, the dinoflagellates Dinophysis acuminata and D. norvegica, and the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia seriata. GAMMs produced for each species were combined with two downscaled climate simulations (MPI-ESM-LR and CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 over the 21st century. D. acuminata, D. norvegica, and P. seriata GAMMs were fitted using sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, with wind speed averaged over seven days added to the P. seriata model. GAMMs succeeded at various degrees at reproducing past HAB events, with D. acuminata and D. norvegica being accurately modelled, and P. seriata producing less precise model results. Both climate simulations lead to similar conclusions in regards to the spatio-temporal shift in occurrences of the three studied species. D. acuminata and D. norvegica blooms (≥ 1000 cells L - 1) are predicted to increase in the future, whereas P. seriata bloom events (≥ 5000 cells L - 1) will tend to stabilise/decrease overall on the Canadian East Coast. Dinophysis blooms are most likely to increase in the St. Lawrence Estuary. Pseudo-nitzschia blooms will move to the northeastern part of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and will increase in the Bay of Fundy/Gulf of Maine regions. On average, earlier blooms and larger seasonal windows of opportunity are predicted across all species investigated. We conclude that changes in D. acuminata, D. norvegica, and P. seriata bloom dynamics and their spatial distributions could threaten aquaculture industries and ecosystem health on Canada's East Coast in localities and during seasons which were not previously impacted by these species.

Three decades of Canadian marine harmful algal events: Phytoplankton and phycotoxins of concern to human and ecosystem health.

Spatial and temporal trends of marine harmful algal events in Canada over the last three decades were examined using data from the Harmful Algal Event Database (HAEDAT). This database contains the most complete record of algal blooms, phycotoxins and shellfish harvesting area closures in Canada since 1987. This 30-year review of 593 Canadian HAEDAT records from 1988 to 2017, together with other Canadian data and publications, shows that recurring harmful algal events have been widespread throughout both the Atlantic and Pacific coastal regions. The 367 paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) reports revealed annual and frequent recurrence throughout both the Atlantic and Pacific regions, including multi-year PST events in the Bay of Fundy, the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence and the Strait of Georgia. The 70 amnesic shellfish toxin (AST) records revealed no recognizable trend, as these events were usually area specific and did not recur annually. The increasing frequency of diarrhetic shellfish toxin (DST) events over the period of this review, in total 59 records, can be at least partially explained by increased sampling effort. Marine species mortalities caused by harmful algae (including diatoms, dictyochophytes, dinoflagellates, and raphidophytes), were a common occurrence in the Pacific region (87 reports), but have been reported much less frequently in the Atlantic region (10 reports). Notable Canadian records contained in HAEDAT include the first detection worldwide of amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP), attributed to the production of domoic acid (an AST) by a diatom (Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries) in Prince Edward Island in 1987. The first proven case of diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) in Canada and North America was recorded in 1990, and the first closures of shellfish harvesting due to DST (associated with the presence of Dinophysis norvegica) occurred in Nova Scotia in 1992, followed by closures in Newfoundland and Labrador in 1993. In 2008, mass mortalities of fishes, birds and mammals in the St. Lawrence Estuary were caused by Alexandrium catenella and high levels of PST. During 2015, the Pacific coast experienced a large algal bloom that extended from California to Alaska. It resulted in the closure of several shellfish harvesting areas in British Columbia due to AST, produced by Pseudo-nitzschia australis. Data from the Canadian Arctic coast is not included in HAEDAT. However, because of the emerging importance of climate change and increased vessel traffic in the Arctic, information on the occurrence of harmful algal species (pelagic and sympagic = sea ice-associated) in that region was compiled from relevant literature and data. The results suggest that these taxa may be more widespread than previously thought in the Canadian Arctic. Information in HAEDAT was not always robust or complete enough to provide conclusions about temporal trends. Compilation of spatial and temporal information from HAEDAT and other records is nevertheless important for evaluating the potential role of harmful algae as a stressor on Canadian marine ecosystems, and will support the next step: developing a knowledge gap analysis that will establish research priorities for determining their consequences on human and ecosystem health.

Multispecies mass mortality of marine fauna linked to a toxic dinoflagellate bloom.

Following heavy precipitation, we observed an intense algal bloom in the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) that coincided with an unusually high mortality of several species of marine fish, birds and mammals, including species designated at risk. The algal species was identified as Alexandrium tamarense and was determined to contain a potent mixture of paralytic shellfish toxins (PST). Significant levels of PST were found in the liver and/or gastrointestinal contents of several carcasses tested as well as in live planktivorous fish, molluscs and plankton samples collected during the bloom. This provided strong evidence for the trophic transfer of PST resulting in mortalities of multiple wildlife species. This conclusion was strengthened by the sequence of mortalities, which followed the drift of the bloom along the coast of the St. Lawrence Estuary. No other cause of mortality was identified in the majority of animals examined at necropsy. Reports of marine fauna presenting signs of neurological dysfunction were also supportive of exposure to these neurotoxins. The event reported here represents the first well-documented case of multispecies mass mortality of marine fish, birds and mammals linked to a PST-producing algal bloom.

Marine mammal strandings and environmental changes: a 15-year study in the St. Lawrence ecosystem.

Understanding the effects of climatic variability on marine mammals is challenging due to the complexity of ecological interactions. We used general linear models to analyze a 15-year database documenting marine mammal strandings (1994-2008; n = 1,193) and nine environmental parameters known to affect marine mammal survival, from regional (sea ice) to continental scales (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Stranding events were more frequent during summer and fall than other seasons, and have increased since 1994. Poor ice conditions observed during the same period may have affected marine mammals either directly, by modulating the availability of habitat for feeding and breeding activities, or indirectly, through changes in water conditions and marine productivity (krill abundance). For most species (75%, n = 6 species), a low volume of ice was correlated with increasing frequency of stranding events (e.g. R(2)adj = 0.59, hooded seal, Cystophora cristata). This likely led to an increase in seal mortality during the breeding period, but also to increase habitat availability for seasonal migratory cetaceans using ice-free areas during winter. We also detected a high frequency of stranding events for mysticete species (minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and resident species (beluga, Delphinapterus leucas), correlated with low krill abundance since 1994. Positive NAO indices were positively correlated with high frequencies of stranding events for resident and seasonal migratory cetaceans, as well as rare species (R(2)adj = 0.53, 0.81 and 0.34, respectively). This contrasts with seal mass stranding numbers, which were negatively correlated with a positive NAO index. In addition, an unusual multiple species mortality event (n = 114, 62% of total annual mortality) in 2008 was caused by a harmful algal bloom. Our findings provide an empirical baseline in understanding marine mammal survival when faced with climatic variability. This is a promising step in integrating stranding records to monitor the consequences of environmental changes in marine ecosystems over long time scales.

Copepod hatching success in marine ecosystems with high diatom concentrations.

Diatoms dominate spring bloom phytoplankton assemblages in temperate waters and coastal upwelling regions of the global ocean. Copepods usually dominate the zooplankton in these regions and are the prey of many larval fish species. Recent laboratory studies suggest that diatoms may have a deleterious effect on the success of copepod egg hatching. These findings challenge the classical view of marine food-web energy flow from diatoms to fish by means of copepods. Egg mortality is an important factor in copepod population dynamics, thus, if diatoms have a deleterious in situ effect, paradoxically, high diatom abundance could limit secondary production. Therefore, the current understanding of energy transfer from primary production to fisheries in some of the most productive and economically important marine ecosystems may be seriously flawed. Here we present in situ estimates of copepod egg hatching success from twelve globally distributed areas, where diatoms dominate the phytoplankton assemblage. We did not observe a negative relationship between copepod egg hatching success and either diatom biomass or dominance in the microplankton in any of these regions. The classical model for diatom-dominated system remains valid.