The effect of new bovine viral diarrhea virus introduction on somatic cell count, calving interval, culling, and calf mortality of dairy herds in the Dutch bovine viral diarrhea virus-free program.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infection has a major effect on the health of cows and consequently on herd performance. Many countries have implemented control or eradication programs to mitigate BVDV infection and its negative effects. These negative effects of BVDV infection on dairy herds are well documented, but there is much less information about the effects of new introduction of BVDV on dairy herds already participating in a BVDV control program. The objective of our study was to investigate the effect of a new BVDV introduction in BVDV-free herds participating in the Dutch BVDV-free program on herd performance. Longitudinal herd-level surveillance data were combined with herd information data to create 4 unique data sets, including a monthly test-day somatic cell count (SCC) data set, annual calving interval (CIV) and culling risk (CR) data sets, and a quarterly calf mortality rate (CMR) data set. Each database contained 2 types of herds: herds that remained BVDV free during the whole study period (defined as free herds), and herds that lost their BVDV-free status during the study period (defined as breakdown herds). The date of losing the BVDV-free status was defined as breakdown date. To compare breakdown herds with free herds, a random breakdown date was artificially generated for free herds by simple random sampling from the distribution of the breakdown month of the breakdown herds. The SCC and CIV before and after a new introduction of BVDV were compared through linear mixed-effects models with a Gaussian distribution, and the CR and CMR were modeled using a negative binomial distribution in generalized linear mixed-effects models. The explanatory variables for all models included herd type, BVDV status, year, and a random herd effect. Herd size was included as an explanatory variable in the SCC, CIV, and CMR model. Season was included as an explanatory variable in the SCC and CMR model. Results showed that free herds have lower SCC, CR, CMR, and shorter CIV than the breakdown herds. Within the breakdown herds, the new BVDV introduction affected the SCC and CMR. In the year after BVDV introduction, the SCC was higher than that in the year before BVDV introduction, with a factor of 1.011 [2.5th to 97.5th percentile (95% PCTL): 1.002, 1.020]. Compared with the year before BVDV breakdown, the CMR in the year of breakdown and the year after breakdown was higher, with factors of 1.170 (95% PCTL: 1.120; 1.218) and 1.096 (95% PCTL: 1.048; 1.153), respectively. This study reveals that a new introduction of BVDV had a negative but on average relatively small effect on herd performance in herds participating in a BVDV control program.

The effect of bovine viral diarrhea virus introduction on milk production of Dutch dairy herds.

Dairy cows are negatively affected by the introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), and consequently, produce less milk. Existing literature on potential milk production losses is based on relatively outdated data and hardly evaluates milk production loss in relation to a new BVDV infection in a surveillance system. This study determined the annual and quarterly loss in milk production of BVDV introduction in 3,126 dairy herds participating in the Dutch BVDV-free program between 2007 and 2017. Among these herds, 640 were "breakdown-herds" that obtained and subsequently lost their BVDV-free status during the study period, and 2,486 herds obtained and retained their BVDV-free status during the study period. Milk yields before and after BVDV introduction were compared through annual and quarterly linear mixed models. The fixed variables for both models included herd type (breakdown-herd or free-herd), bovine viral diarrhea status (on an annual and quarterly basis), year, season, and a random herd effect. The dependent variable was the average daily milk yield on the test day. To define the possible BVDV-introduction dates, 4 scenarios were developed. In the default scenario, the date of breakdown (i.e., loss of the BVDV-free status) was assumed as the BVDV-introduction date. For the other 3 scenarios, the BVDV-introduction dates were set at 4, 6, and 9 mo before the date of breakdown, based on the estimated birth date of a persistently infected calf. In the default scenario, the loss in milk yield due to BVDV introduction occurred mainly in the first year after breakdown, with a reduction in yield of 0.08 kg/cow per day compared with the last year before breakdown. For the other 3 scenarios, the greatest yield reduction occurred in the second year after BVDV introduction, with a loss of 0.09, 0.09, and 0.1 kg/cow per day, respectively. For the first 4 quarters after BVDV introduction in the default scenario, milk yield loss was 0.14, 0.09, 0.02, and 0.08 kg/cow per day, respectively. These quarterly results indicated that milk yield loss was greatest in the first quarter after BVDV introduction. Overall, BVDV introduction had a negative, but on average a relatively small, effect on milk yield for herds participating in the BVDV-free program. This study will enable dairy farmers and policymakers to have a clearer understanding of the quantitative milk production effect of BVDV on dairy farms in a control program.

Economic and epidemiological impact of different intervention strategies for clinical contagious mastitis.

The overall aim of this study was to compare different intervention strategies for clinical intramammary infections (IMI). We conducted a simulation study to represent a Danish dairy cattle herd with IMI caused mostly by Staphylococcus aureus and 9 different intervention strategies for clinical IMI. A standard intervention of 3 d of treatment consisting of intramammary injections for all clinical cases was used. Two of the strategies reflected the use of more antibiotics and 6 strategies reflected cow-specific treatment or culling decisions. For these strategies, we assessed the cost and effectiveness of culling as an IMI intervention. Our results showed that nearly all strategies could reduce the number of IMI cases [e.g., a median of 37 clinical cases with the extended intramammary treatment over 5 d strategy (Basic5) and 30 clinical cases with the cow culled with recovery probability below 50% (Before50)] compared with the standard intervention (median of 42 clinical cases). This happened alongside either increased antibiotic usage (e.g., from a median of 123 treatment days up to 179 treatment days with strategy Basic5) or an increased number of cows culled in relation to IMI (e.g., from a median of 16 up to 24 cows with strategy Before50). Strategies with more antibiotics or reactive culling had a slightly higher net income (e.g., €190,014 median net income with strategy Basic5 or €196,995 with strategy Before50 compared with €187,666 with the standard strategy). This shows that a cow-specific clinical intervention approach can be cost-effective in reducing IMI incidence.

The average culling rate of Dutch dairy herds over the years 2007 to 2010 and its association with herd reproduction, performance and health.

Optimising the number of replacement heifers needed will have positive economic and environmental consequences on herds that rear their own young stock. The number of heifers needed to be kept is closely related with the number of culled dairy cows in the herd. This study therefore looked at the variation that exists in culling rate and herd level factors associated with it. A dataset from 1903 dairy herds available included information at animal level (dates of culling, slaughter/death) and herd level (characteristics of reproduction, performance, health) over the years 2007 to 2010. The average culling rate for slaughter/death was used and was defined for each year as percentage of the herd size that died within 30 d after they were culled. The analysis of the association between average culling rate for slaughter/death and the characteristics of the herd was performed using a mixed model. The results showed that the average culling rate for slaughter/death was 25·4% and varied between 23% (2007) and 28% (2010). More than 70% of the herds have an average culling rate for slaughter/death of less than 30%, showing that there is room for lowering the average culling rate for slaughter/death. A higher average culling rate for slaughter/death is associated with a longer average calving interval, a higher average 305-d protein production, a higher average somatic cell count (SCC), a higher percentage of new high SCC, a more than 5% decrease in herd size, and herds that bought more than 1% of animals per year. A lower average culling rate for slaughter/death is associated with a longer average age, herds that bought less than 1% of animals per year and a more than 5% increase in herd size. In conclusion, the average culling rate for slaughter/death is associated with fertility, udder health and openness of the herd.

Quantifying cost of disease in livestock: a new metric for the Global Burden of Animal Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Increasing awareness of the environmental and public health impacts of expanding and intensifying animal-based food and farming systems creates discord, with the reliance of much of the world's population on animals for livelihoods and essential nutrition. Increasing the efficiency of food production through improved animal health has been identified as a step towards minimising these negative effects without compromising global food security. The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) programme aims to provide data and analytical methods to support positive change in animal health across all livestock and aquaculture animal populations. METHODS: In this study, we present a metric that begins the process of disease burden estimation by converting the physical consequences of disease on animal performance to farm-level costs of disease, and calculates a metric termed the Animal Health Loss Envelope (AHLE) via comparison between the status quo and a disease-free ideal. An example calculation of the AHLE metric for meat production from broiler chickens is provided. FINDINGS: The AHLE presents the direct financial costs of disease at farm-level for all causes by estimating losses and expenditure in a given farming system. The general specification of the model measures productivity change at farm-level and provides an upper bound on productivity change in the absence of disease. On its own, it gives an indication of the scale of total disease cost at farm-level. INTERPRETATION: The AHLE is an essential stepping stone within the GBADs programme because it connects the physical performance of animals in farming systems under different environmental and management conditions and different health states to farm economics. Moving forward, AHLE results will be an important step in calculating the wider monetary consequences of changes in animal health as part of the GBADs programme. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme.

Associations between dairy farm performance indicators and culling rates under policy-driven herd size constraints.

Introduction: This article aimed to study cross-sectional associations between the performance of dairy farms and their corresponding culling proportions under the herd size constraint as imposed in 2018 by the new phosphate regulation in the Netherlands. Methods: To this end, production data from 10,540 Dutch dairy farms were analyzed to capture the inflow and outflow of both primiparous and multiparous cows. Farm performance was measured by 10 indicators structured in four areas of longevity, production, reproduction, and udder health. Farm culling proportions were represented by the overall culling (OC) and the number of culled primiparous cows in relation to (i) the total number of producing cows (PC), (ii) the number of producing primiparous cows (PPC), and (iii) the number of culled producing cows (POC). Spearman's rank correlation and weighted logistic regression were adopted to study associations. Results: In 2018, on average, 28% of producing cows were culled (OC). The number of primiparous cows culled represented 4.5% of the total number of producing cows (PC) and the mean proportion of culled primiparous cows was 18.8% of the total number of producing primiparous cows (PPC), and, of the total number of producing culled cows, 15% were primiparous cows (POC). However, the variance around the mean, and among individual farms, was high (SD 4-15% for all four culling proportions). Results from rank correlation showed very low-rank conformity (<12%) between the areas of production, reproduction, and udder health to the culling proportions. Results from logistic regression showed that higher farm levels of production and higher percentages of cows with poor udder health were associated with more overall culling but with less primiparous culling. For reproduction indicators, the associations were similar for overall and primiparous culling. However, except for the average age of culled animals, the odds ratios for indicators were close to 1 (range: 0.92-1.07 and 0.68-1.07 for OC and PPC, respectively), indicating only weak associations to culling proportions. Discussion: In conclusion, although the introduction of phosphate regulation resulted in an increased outflow of cattle, corresponding culling proportions were not associated with the level of farm performance measured in terms of production, reproduction, or udder health.

Prediction of persistency for day 305 of lactation at the moment of the insemination decision.

When deciding on the voluntary waiting period of an individual cow, it might be useful to have insight into the persistency for the remainder of that lactation at the moment of the insemination decision, especially for farmers who consider persistency in their reproduction management. Currently, breeding values for persistency are calculated for dairy cows but, to our knowledge, prediction models to accurately predict persistency at different moments of insemination are lacking. This study aimed to predict lactation persistency for DIM 305 at different insemination moments (DIM 50, 75, 100, and 125). Available cow and herd level data from 2005 to 2022 were collected for a total of 20,508 cows from 85 herds located in the Netherlands and Belgium. Lactation curve characteristics were estimated for every daily record using the data up to and including that day. Persistency was defined as the number of days it takes for the milk production to decrease by half during the declining stage of lactation, and calculated from the estimated lactation curve characteristic 'decay'. Four linear regression models for each of the selected insemination moment were built separately to predict decay at DIM 305 (decay-305). Independent variables included the lactation curve characteristics at the selected insemination moment, daily milk yield, age, calving season, parity group and other herd variables. The average decay-305 of primiparous cows was lower than that of multiparous cows (1.55 *10-3 vs. 2.41*10-3, equivalent to a persistency of 447 vs. 288 days, respectively). Results showed that our models had limitations in accurately predicting persistency, although predictions improved slightly at later insemination moments, with R2 values ranging between 0.27 and 0.41. It can thus be concluded that, based only on cow and herd milk production information, accurate prediction of persistency for DIM 305 is not feasible.

Milk ß-hydroxybutyrate metrics and its consequences for surveillance of hyperketonaemia on commercial dairy farms.

Dairy cows that are unable to adapt to a change in their metabolic status are at risk for hyperketonaemia (HK). Reported HK herd level prevalences range a lot and we hypothesized that this is partly due to differences in used tests and monitoring protocols. Insights in milk ß-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) metrics can potentially explain why the reported incidences or prevalences vary between test strategies. Automated collection and repeated analyses of individual milk samples with the DeLaval Herd Navigator™ (HN) provides real-time data on milk BHB concentrations. We aimed to use that information to gain insight in BHB metrics measured in milk from 3 to 60 days in milk (DIM). Using different cut-offs (0.08, 0.10 and 0.15 mmol/L), 5 BHB metrics were determined. Furthermore, the impact of 4 arbitrary test protocols on the detected incidence of HK was assessed. We used HN data of 3,133 cows from 35 herds. The cumulative incidence of HK between 3 and 60 DIM varied between 30.5 and 76.7% for different cut-off values. We found a higher HK incidence for higher parity cows. The first elevated BHB concentrations were roughly found between one and two weeks after calving. For higher parity cows the maximum BHB concentrations were higher, the onset of HK was earlier after calving, and the number of episodes of HK was higher. It appeared that the sensitivity of a HK test protocol can be increased by increasing the testing frequency from once to twice a week. Also extending the number of days of the test window from 4-14 to 4-21 days enhances the chance to find cows experiencing HK. In conclusion, HN data provided useful insights in milk BHB metrics. The chosen cut-off value had a large effect on the reported metrics which explains why earlier reported incidences or prevalences vary such a lot. Differences in test period and sample selection also had a large impact on the observed HK incidence. We suggest to take this in consideration while evaluating whether HK is an issue on farm level and use a uniform protocol for benchmarking of HK between farms.

Hormone use for reproductive diseases and heat induction in relation to herd-level reproductive performance in Dutch dairy farms.

This ecological study aimed to associate hormone use for reproductive diseases and heat induction with reproductive performance at herd level. Hormone use, herd characteristics, and test-day recording data were obtained from 754 representative Dutch dairy farms belonging to five large veterinary practices from 2017 to 2019 (1679 observations in total). Hormone use was classified into prostaglandin, gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH), and progesterone, and was expressed at herd level as the annual number of hormone doses per 100 adult dairy cows. Hormone use was categorized into four levels (no usage, low, medium, and high use), following the 33rd and 66th percentiles of herds that applied them. Three herd-level reproductive performance indicators (calving interval, calving-to-1st insemination interval, number of inseminations per cow) were analyzed using multivariable General Estimating Equations models. The median annual total hormone use was 36.1 (mean=43.1; min=0.0; max=248.2) doses per 100 adult dairy cows in all herds while the median was 39.2 (mean=46.8; min=0.4; max=248.2) doses per 100 adult dairy cows among the user-herds. The median annual group-specific hormone use was 21.3 (mean=26.1; min 0.0; max=180.0), 11.0 (mean=15.3; min=0.0; max=127.0) and 0.0 (mean=1.8; min=0.0; max=40.3) doses per 100 adult dairy cows for prostaglandin, GnRH, and progesterone, respectively. The final statistical models identified that herds with a high hormone use had a calving interval and a calving-to-1st insemination interval that was 9.3 ± 2.6 and 16.4 ± 2.1 days shorter than that of non-user herds (424.0 ± 2.7 and 114.0 ± 2.1 days), respectively. Furthermore, high-user herds needed on average 0.3 ± 0.04 inseminations more to get their cows pregnant compared to non-user herds (1.83 ± 0.04 no. of inseminations per cow). Medium-user herds had a 6.5 ± 2.6 days shorter calving interval and a 12.0 ± 2.1 days shorter calving-to-1st insemination interval with 0.2 ± 0.04 additional inseminations per cow compared to non-user herds. Low-user herds had a 6.2 ± 2.7 days shorter calving interval and a 7.9 ± 2.2 days shorter calving-to-1st insemination interval compared to non-user herds. The model produced the same trend for prostaglandin and GnRH use, with the higher use being associated with a shorter calving interval, a shorter calving-to-1st insemination interval, and a higher insemination per cow number. For progesterone use the opposite effect was observed. In conclusion, using a large representative herd-level dataset, hormone use was associated with a better reproductive performance in terms of calving interval and calving-to-1st insemination interval but gave extra average number of inseminations per cow. It should be monitored how reproduction performance changes when striving for a more prudent hormone use.

The economic impact of endemic respiratory disease in pigs and related interventions - a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the financial consequences of endemically prevalent pathogens within the porcine respiratory disease complex (PRDC) and the effects of interventions assists decision-making regarding disease prevention and control. The aim of this systematic review was to identify what economic studies have been carried out on infectious endemic respiratory disease in pigs, what methods are being used, and, when feasible, to identify the economic impacts of PRDC pathogens and the costs and benefits of interventions. RESULTS: By following the PRISMA method, a total of 58 studies were deemed eligible for the purpose of this systematic review. Twenty-six studies used data derived from European countries, 18 from the US, 6 from Asia, 4 from Oceania, and 4 from other countries, i.e., Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. Main findings from selected publications were: (1) The studies mainly considered endemic scenarios on commercial fattening farms; (2) The porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus was by far the most studied pathogen, followed by Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae, but the absence or presence of other endemic respiratory pathogens was often not verified or accounted for; (3) Most studies calculated the economic impact using primary production data, whereas twelve studies modelled the impact using secondary data only; (4) Seven different economic methods were applied across studies; (5) A large variation exists in the cost and revenue components considered in calculations, with feed costs and reduced carcass value included the most often; (6) The reported median economic impact of one or several co-existing respiratory pathogen(s) ranged from €1.70 to €8.90 per nursery pig, €2.30 to €15.35 per fattening pig, and €100 to €323 per sow per year; and (7) Vaccination was the most studied intervention, and the outcomes of all but three intervention-focused studies were neutral or positive. CONCLUSION: The outcomes and discussion from this systematic review provide insight into the studies, their methods, the advantages and limitations of the existing research, and the reported impacts from the endemic respiratory disease complex for pig production systems worldwide. Future research should improve the consistency and comparability of economic assessments by ensuring the inclusion of high impact cost and revenue components and expressing results similarly.

The DECIDE project: from surveillance data to decision-support for farmers and veterinarians.

Farmers, veterinarians and other animal health managers in the livestock sector are currently missing sufficient information on prevalence and burden of contagious endemic animal diseases. They need adequate tools for risk assessment and prioritization of control measures for these diseases. The DECIDE project develops data-driven decision-support tools, which present (i) robust and early signals of disease emergence and options for diagnostic confirmation; and (ii) options for controlling the disease along with their implications in terms of disease spread, economic burden and animal welfare. DECIDE focuses on respiratory and gastro-intestinal syndromes in the three most important terrestrial livestock species (pigs, poultry, cattle) and on reduced growth and mortality in two of the most important aquaculture species (salmon and trout). For each of these, we (i) identify the stakeholder needs; (ii) determine the burden of disease and costs of control measures; (iii) develop data sharing frameworks based on federated data access and meta-information sharing; (iv) build multivariate and multi-level models for creating early warning systems; and (v) rank interventions based on multiple criteria. Together, all of this forms decision-support tools to be integrated in existing farm management systems wherever possible and to be evaluated in several pilot implementations in farms across Europe. The results of DECIDE lead to improved use of surveillance data and evidence-based decisions on disease control. Improved disease control is essential for a sustainable food chain in Europe with increased animal health and welfare and that protects human health.

The association of herd performance indicators with dairy cow longevity: An empirical study.

The associations between reproductive performance, milk yield and health status with the risk of culling, and thus with a cow's longevity, have been well documented at the individual cow level. Associations at individual cow level may, however, not be valid at herd level due to interrelated herd management aspects and/or policy restrictions. The objective of this study was to explore the association of herd performance indicators with herd-level dairy cow longevity under Dutch production conditions. Longevity was expressed by three different measures, viz. age at culling, lifetime milk production of culled cows and culling rate. The evaluated herd performance indicators included factors on milk production, youngstock rearing, reproduction and health performance as registered on 10 719 Dutch commercial dairy herds during the period 2007-2016. Averaged over herds and the evaluated period, the age of culled milking cows was 2 139 days (5.8 years, SD±298 days), the lifetime milk production of culled cows was 31 238 kg (SD±7,494 kg), and the culling rate was 0.24 (SD±0.08). A mixed linear regression modelling approach was applied to evaluate the association of each of the three longevity measures with the selected herd performance indicators. The results indicated that only four herd performance indictors (herd size, herd expansion, heifer ratio and the proportion of cows with potential subclinical ketosis) shared significant associations with all three longevity variables. Generally, the strength of the associations between each of the evaluated longevity measures and herd performance indicators was only limited. The absence of strong associations between the longevity measures and herd performance indicators reveal that there is potential of extending cattle longevity without affecting the herd performance in terms of milk production, reproduction and health. Moreover, only part of the observed variance in longevity among the herds over time was explained by the herd performance variables, indicating that differences in longevity at herd level may predominantly be determined by other factors, like farmers' attitude and strategic management.

Linear Mixed-Effects Model to Quantify the Association between Somatic Cell Count and Milk Production in Italian Dairy Herds.

Milk production loss due to mastitis in dairy herds is economically important. Before estimating the economic impacts of mastitis, it is crucial to quantify the association between mastitis and milk production. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between somatic cell count (SCC, as an indicator of intramammary infection due to mastitis) and milk production for dairy cows in Lombardy, Italy. The test-day (TD) records data of 3816 dairy herds located in three different geographical areas of Lombardy from January 2016 to December 2018 were used. After data editing, the final dataset comprised 10,445,464 TD records from 2970 farms and 826,831 cows. The analysis was carried out by using a mixed-effects model with six fixed effects (geographical Area, Breed, Days in Milk, Parity, Season and Year) and nested random effects for each cow and herd. The results confirmed that the SCC had a negative association with milk production. On average, this study found that any two-fold increase of SCC resulted in a milk production loss of 0.830 (95% CI: -0.832, -0.828) kg/cow/day in the whole of Lombardy. These results can be used for economic calculations on the costs of mastitis.

Herd level economic comparison between the shape of the lactation curve and 305 d milk production.

Herd milk production performance is generally evaluated using the herd's average 305-day milk production (HM305). Economic comparisons between herds are also often made using HM305. Comparing herds is thus based on summarized milk production, and not on the form of the lactation curves of the cows within the herd. Cow lactation curve characteristics can be aggregated on a calendar year basis to herd lactation curve characteristics (HLCC) (herd magnitude, herd time to peak yield and herd persistency). Thus far, no literature has evaluated whether the shape of the lactation curve (described by HLCC) is better able to explain the economic variation of herds than summarized milk production such as HM305 does. This study aims to determine whether HM305 or HLCC is better able to explain the variation in economic performance between herds. To do so, we evaluated 8 years of Dutch longitudinal data on milk production and the financial accounts of 1,664 herds. Cow lactation curve characteristics were calculated through lactation curve modeling and aggregated to HLCC on a calendar year basis for two parity groups (primiparous cows and multiparous cows). Using income over feed cost per cow (IOFC-cow) or per 100 kg milk (IOFC-milk) as the dependent variable separately, we developed four linear mixed models. Two models were used to analyse the association between herd economic performance and HLCC; the other two models were used to analyse the association between herd economic performance and HM305. A Cox test and J test were used to compare two non-nested models to investigate whether HM305 or HLCC better explain IOFC. The average IOFC-cow was €2,305 (SD = 408) per year, while the average IOFC-milk was €32.1 (SD = 4.6). Results showed that HLCC and HM305 explain the same amount of variance of IOFC-cow or IOFC-milk. IOFC-cow was associated with HM305 and HLCC (except herd time to peak yield for primiparous cows). Herd magnitude was most strongly associated with IOFC-cow, followed by herd persistency and herd time to peak yield of multiparous cows. IOFC-milk was not associated with HM305 or HLCC (except for a weak negative association with herd persistency for primiparous cows). IOFC-cow and IOFC-milk were driven most by time effects. In conclusion, HLCC and HM305 explain the same amount of variance in IOFC-cow or IOFC-milk. HLCC is more computationally expensive, while HM305 is more readily available.

Estimating the Effect of a Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus Control Program: An Empirical Study on the Performance of Dutch Dairy Herds.

More and more European countries have implemented a bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) control program. The economic effects of such programs have been evaluated in simulations, but empirical studies are lacking, especially in the final stage of the program. We investigated the economic (gross margin) and production effects (milk yield, somatic cell count, and calving interval) of the herds obtaining BVDV-free certification based on longitudinal annual accounting and herd performance data from Dutch dairy herds between 2014 and 2019, the final stages of the Dutch national BVDV-free program. This study was designed as a case-control study: two types of case herds were defined for two analyses. The case herds in the first analysis are herds where the BVDV status changed from "BVDV not free" to "BVDV free" during the study period. The not-free status refers to a herd that participated in the BVDV-free program but had not yet obtained the BVDV-free certification. In the second analysis, the case herds started participating in the Dutch BVDV-free program during the study period and obtained the BVDV-free certification. Control herds in both analyses were BVDV-free during the entire study period. Potential bias between the covariates of the two herd groups was reduced by matching case and control herds using the propensity score matching method. To compare the differences between case and control herds before and after BVDV-free certification, we used the time-varying Difference-in-Differences estimation (DID) methodology. The results indicate that there was no significant change in milk yield, somatic cell count, calving interval, and gross margin upon BVDV-free certification. There are several possible explanations for the non-significant effects observed in our study, such as the final stage of the BVDV control program, not knowing the true BVDV infection situation in case herds and not knowing if control measures were implemented in case herds prior to participating in the BVDV-free program. In our study, the effects of BVDV-free certification might have been underestimated, given that the Dutch BVDV control program became mandatory during the study period, and some of the case herds might have never experienced any BVDV infection. The results of this study suggest that in the final stage of the BVDV control program, the program may no longer have a clear benefit to the herd performance of participating dairy herds. When designing national programs to eradicate BVDV, it is therefore important to include incentives for such farms to motivate them to join the program.

A stochastic modelling approach to determine the effect of diverse Staphylococcus aureus strains on the economic and epidemiological outcomes of mastitis intervention strategies in dairy cattle.

Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) strains with considerable genetic and phenotypic differences have previously been identified. The economic and epidemiologic impact of S. aureus mastitis has been investigated, but none of these studies took differences between strains into account. Here we aimed to investigate how differences between S. aureus strains affect the economic and epidemiologic outcome of various intervention strategies against clinical and subclinical intramammary infections. Five S. aureus strains were modelled using a stochastic bio-economic model simulating a dairy herd of 200 cows using single-day time steps. The strain characteristics of the five simulated S. aureus strains (general, contagious, spill-over, clinical and persistent) were based on divergent phenotypes as described in literature. Outcomes of the model included incidence (both clinical and subclinical), number of antibiotic treatment days, number of culled cows, and net income. Intervention strategies against clinical and subclinical intramammary infections were based on (variations of) intramammary antibiotic treatment, testing, and culling. Both single and multiple pathogen (intramammary infection caused by S. aureus, Escherichia coli, and non-aureus staphylococci) scenarios were simulated to determine the effect of the five S. aureus strains on the impact of 19 different intervention strategies. The results showed that the incidence (both clinical and subclinical), number of treatment days, number of culled cows, and net income varied considerably for the different S. aureus strains. Comparison of the model outcomes within and between strains showed that for most intervention strategies the relative impact differed per strain. However, the intervention strategy with the best outcome for most variables and strains was the culling of cows with a recovery probability lower than 50%. This shows that the relative economic and epidemiologic impact of most of the modelled intervention strategies were strain-dependent, while some intervention strategies were not strain-dependent. From this, we conclude that, depending on the intervention strategy applied on a farm, it could be advantageous to type S. aureus to determine whether it would be economically and epidemiologically beneficial for the existing intervention strategy to be changed.

An Empirical Analysis on the Longevity of Dairy Cows in Relation to Economic Herd Performance.

Several studies have stated the various effects of an increased dairy cow longevity on economic herd performance, but empirical studies are lacking. This study aimed to investigate the association between longevity of dairy cows and the economic performance of dairy herds based on longitudinal Dutch accounting data. Herd and farm accounting data (n = 855 herds) over the years 2007-2016 were analyzed. Herd data contained yearly averages on longevity features, herd size and several production variables. Longevity was defined as the age of cows at culling and by lifetime milk production of culled cows. Farm accounting data contained yearly averages on revenues, fixed and variable costs of the herds, by which gross margins were defined. Data was analyzed using generalized linear mixed modeling, with gross margin as dependent variable. The independent variables consisted of average age of culled cows, average lifetime production of culled cows, year, herd size, herd intensity (milk production per ha), herd expansion rate, soil type, milking system, successor availability, total full-time equivalent, heifer ratio (% of heifers per cow) and use of outsourced heifer rearing. Herd was included as a random effect to account for the heterogeneity among herds. Descriptive statistics showed that the average age of culled cows was 5.87 (STD = 0.78) years and the average lifetime milk production of culled cows was 31.87 (STD = 7.56) tons per cow with an average herd size of 89 cows (STD = 38.85). The average age of culled cows was stable over the 10 years (variation between 5.79 AND 5.90 years). The gross margin was on average €24.80/100 kg milk (STD = 4.67), with the lowest value in year 2009 and the highest value in year 2013. Gross margin was not significantly associated with age of culled cows and lifetime milk production of culled cows. Variance in longevity between herds was large (STD = 0.78 years) but herds with a higher longevity did not perform economically better nor worse than herds resulting in lower longevity. This indicates that, within current practice, there is potential for improving longevity in order to meet society's concerns on animal welfare and environmental pollution, without affecting the economic performance of the herd.

Survival analysis of dairy cows in the Netherlands under altering agricultural policy.

Culling of underperforming dairy cows by replacement heifers is a fundamental part of Dutch dairy farm management. Changes in national agricultural policies can influence farmers' culling decisions. The objective of this study was to analyse the relevancy of cow-level risk factors for survival of Dutch dairy cows under perturbations due to national policy changes related to the -milk quota abolishment of 2015 and the phosphate regulations since 2017. For this purpose, an accelerated failure time model was fitted on-longitudinal dairy cows' data at national level covering the period 2009-2019. The associated cow-level risk factors for culling such as lactation value (relative production level), parity number, rolling average of inseminations over all parities, very high fat-protein ratio (highFPR) and very low fat-protein ratio (lowFPR) in early lactation, test-day somatic cell count, were fitted in the model. Along with these, a factor representing three target policy periods, namely Milk Quota period (MQ), Post-Milk Quota period (PMQ) and Phosphate regulation period (PH) were fitted. The mean survival age for all producing cows was 441 weeks overall. The predicted median survival time for the policy periods MQ, PMQ and PH were 273 weeks, 271 weeks and 256 weeks, respectively. Risk factors such as lactation value, parity and highFPR, rolling average of inseminations over all parities were positively associated with survival time in all three policy periods. Risk factors such as test-day somatic cell count and lowFPR were negatively associated with survival time in all three policy periods. In conclusion, this study demonstrated the differences in survival of Dutch dairy cows in response to changing agricultural policy. The association of cow-level risk factors for culling was consistent across the three evaluated policy periods.

Sensors and clinical mastitis--the quest for the perfect alert.

When cows on dairy farms are milked with an automatic milking system or in high capacity milking parlors, clinical mastitis (CM) cannot be adequately detected without sensors. The objective of this paper is to describe the performance demands of sensor systems to detect CM and evaluats the current performance of these sensor systems. Several detection models based on different sensors were studied in the past. When evaluating these models, three factors are important: performance (in terms of sensitivity and specificity), the time window and the similarity of the study data with real farm data. A CM detection system should offer at least a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 99%. The time window should not be longer than 48 hours and study circumstances should be as similar to practical farm circumstances as possible. The study design should comprise more than one farm for data collection. Since 1992, 16 peer-reviewed papers have been published with a description and evaluation of CM detection models. There is a large variation in the use of sensors and algorithms. All this makes these results not very comparable. There is a also large difference in performance between the detection models and also a large variation in time windows used and little similarity between study data. Therefore, it is difficult to compare the overall performance of the different CM detection models. The sensitivity and specificity found in the different studies could, for a large part, be explained in differences in the used time window. None of the described studies satisfied the demands for CM detection models.

Estimating the combined costs of clinical and subclinical ketosis in dairy cows.

Clinical ketosis (CK) and subclinical ketosis (SCK) are associated with lower milk production, lower reproductive performance, an increased culling of cows and an increased probability of other disorders. Quantifying the costs related to ketosis will enable veterinarians and farmers to make more informed decisions regarding the prevention and treatment of the disease. The overall aim of this study was to estimate the combined costs of CK and SCK using assumptions and input variables from a typical Dutch context. A herd level dynamic stochastic simulation model was developed, simulating 385 herds with 130 cows each. In the default scenario there was a CK probability of almost 1% and a SCK probability of 11%. The herds under the no risk scenario had no CK and SCK, while the herds under the high-risk scenario had a doubled probability of CK and SCK compared to the default scenario. The results from the simulation model were used to estimate the annual cash flows of the herds, including the costs related to milk production losses, treatment, displaced abomasum, mastitis, calf management, culling and feed, as well as the returns from sales of milk and calves. The difference between the annual net cash flows of farms in the no risk scenario and the default scenario provides the estimate of the herd level costs of ketosis. Average herd level costs of ketosis (CK and SCK combined) were €3,613 per year for a default farm and €7,371 per year for a high-risk farm. The costs for a single CK case were on average €709 (with 5 and 95 percentiles of €64 and €1,196, respectively), while the costs for a single SCK case were on average €150 (with 5 and 95 percentiles of €18 and €422, respectively) for the default farms. The differences in costs between cases occurred due to differences between cases (e.g., cow culled vs cow not culled, getting another disease vs not getting another disease).