2023 Australian guideline for assessing and managing cardiovascular disease risk.

INTRODUCTION: The 2023 Australian guideline for assessing and managing cardiovascular disease risk provides updated evidence-based recommendations for the clinical assessment and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk for primary prevention. It includes the new Australian CVD risk calculator (Aus CVD Risk Calculator), based on an equation developed from a large New Zealand cohort study, customised and recalibrated for the Australian population. The new guideline replaces the 2012 guideline that recommended CVD risk assessment using the Framingham risk equation. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: The new guideline recommends CVD risk assessment in people without known CVD: all people aged 45-79 years, people with diabetes from 35 years, and First Nations people from 30 years. The new Aus CVD Risk Calculator should be used to estimate and categorise CVD risk into low (< 5% risk over five years), intermediate (5% to < 10% risk over five years) or high risk (≥ 10% over five years). The following reclassification factors may be applied to recategorise calculated risk to improve accuracy of risk prediction, particularly in individuals close to a risk threshold: Indigenous status/ethnicity, estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine albumin to creatinine ratio measurements, severe mental illness, coronary artery calcium score and family history of premature CVD. A variety of communication formats is available to communicate CVD risk to help enable shared decision making. Healthy lifestyle modification, including smoking cessation, nutrition, physical activity and limiting alcohol, is encouraged for all individuals. Blood pressure-lowering and lipid-modifying pharmacotherapies should be prescribed for high risk and considered for intermediate risk individuals, unless contraindicated or clinically inappropriate. Reassessment of CVD risk should be considered within five years for individuals at low risk and within two years for those with intermediate risk. Reassessment of CVD risk is not recommended for individuals at high risk. CHANGES IN ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THE GUIDELINE: The updated guideline recommends assessment over a broader age range and uses the Aus CVD Risk Calculator, which replaces the previous Framingham-based equation. It incorporates new variables: social disadvantage, diabetes-specific risk markers, diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and use of blood pressure-lowering and lipid-modifying therapies. Reclassification factors are also a new addition. Updated risk categories and thresholds are based on the new Aus CVD Risk Calculator. The proportion of the population in the high risk category (≥ 10% over five years) is likely to be broadly comparable to more than 15% risk from the Framingham-based equation. The full guideline and Aus CVD Risk Calculator can be accessed at www.cvdcheck.org.au.

Impact of economic factors, social health and stressful life events on physical health-related quality of life trajectories in older Australians.

PURPOSE: Physical health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is associated with adverse health outcomes, including hospitalizations and all-cause mortality. However, little is known about how physical HRQoL changes over time in older people and the predictors of this trajectory. This study (a) identified trajectories of physical HRQoL among older people and (b) explored whether economic factors, social health or stressful life events impact physical HRQoL trajectories. METHOD: A cohort of 12,506 relatively 'healthy' community-dwelling Australians aged ≥ 70 years (54.4% females), enrolled in the ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) study and was followed for six years. Economic factors, social health and life events in the last 12 months were assessed through a questionnaire at baseline. Physical HRQoL was measured by using the 12-item short form at baseline and annual follow-ups. Growth mixture and structural equation modelling were used to identify physical HRQoL trajectories and their predictors. RESULTS: Four physical HRQoL trajectories were identified-stable low (7.1%), declining (9.0%), stable intermediate (17.9%) and stable high (66.0%). Living in more disadvantaged areas, having a lower household income, no paid work, no voluntary work, loneliness and stressful life events (i.e. spousal illness, friend/family illness, financial problem) were associated with a 10%-152% higher likelihood of being in the stable low or declining physical HRQoL trajectory than the stable high group. CONCLUSION: Specific stressful life events had a greater impact on adverse physical HRQoL trajectories in older people than other factors. Volunteering may prevent physical HRQoL decline and requires further investigation.

Health-related quality of life and all-cause mortality among older healthy individuals in Australia and the United States: a prospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: Previous research has demonstrated that lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is associated with higher morbidity and mortality, especially in-patient groups. The association of HRQoL with all-cause mortality in community samples requires further investigation. This study aimed to examine whether HRQoL predicts all-cause mortality in older healthy community-dwelling people from Australia and the United States (U.S.) enrolled in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. We also explored whether this association varies by gender or country. METHOD: A prospective cohort of 19,106 individuals aged 65-98 years, who were without a dementia diagnosis or a known major life-limiting disease, and completed the 12-item short-form-HRQoL at recruitment (2010-2014). They were followed until June 2017. Cox proportional-hazard models were used to determine the association between the physical (PCS) and mental component scores (MCS) of HRQoL and all-cause mortality, adjusting for sociodemographic factors, health-related behaviours and clinical measures. Hazards ratios were estimated for every 10-unit increase in PCS or MCS. RESULTS: There were 1052 deaths over a median 4.7-years (interquartile range 3.6-5.7) of follow-up, with 11.9 events per 1000 person-years. Higher PCS was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77, 0.89) in the entire sample, while higher MCS was associated with lower mortality among U.S. participants only (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.63, 0.95). Gender differences in the association of either PCS or MCS with mortality were not observed. CONCLUSION: Our large study provides evidence that HRQoL is inversely associated with all-cause mortality among initially healthy older people.

Quality of life and mortality in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Quality of life (QoL) is multi-dimensional concept of an individual' general well-being status in relation to their value, environment, cultural and social context in which they live. This study aimed to quantitatively synthesise available evidence on the association between QoL and mortality in the general population. METHODS: An electronic search was conducted using three bibliographic databases, MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO. Inclusion criteria were studies that assessed QoL using standardized tools and examined mortality risk in a non-patient population. Qualitative data synthesis and meta-analyses using a random-effects model were performed. RESULTS: Of 4184 articles identified, 47 were eligible for inclusion, involving approximately 1,200,000 participants. Studies were highly heterogeneous in terms of QoL measures, population characteristics and data analysis. In total, 43 studies (91.5%) reported that better QoL was associated with lower mortality risk. The results of four meta-analyses indicated that higher health-related QoL (HRQoL) is associated with lower mortality risk, which was consistent for overall HRQoL (HR 0.633, 95% CI: 0.514 to 0.780), physical function (HR 0.987, 95% CI: 0.982 to 0.992), physical component score (OR 0.950, 95% CI: 0.935 to 0.965), and mental component score (OR 0.980, 95% CI: 0.969 to 0.992). CONCLUSION: These findings provide evidence that better QoL/HRQoL was associated with lower mortality risk. The utility of these measures in predicting mortality risk indicates that they should be considered further as potential screening tools in general clinical practice, beyond the traditional objective measures such as body mass index and the results of laboratory tests.

Characterising seasonal influenza epidemiology using primary care surveillance data.

Understanding the epidemiology of seasonal influenza is critical for healthcare resource allocation and early detection of anomalous seasons. It can be challenging to obtain high-quality data of influenza cases specifically, as clinical presentations with influenza-like symptoms may instead be cases of one of a number of alternate respiratory viruses. We use a new dataset of confirmed influenza virological data from 2011-2016, along with high-quality denominators informing a hierarchical observation process, to model seasonal influenza dynamics in New South Wales, Australia. We use approximate Bayesian computation to estimate parameters in a climate-driven stochastic epidemic model, including the basic reproduction number R0, the proportion of the population susceptible to the circulating strain at the beginning of the season, and the probability an infected individual seeks treatment. We conclude that R0 and initial population susceptibility were strongly related, emphasising the challenges of identifying these parameters. Relatively high R0 values alongside low initial population susceptibility were among the results most consistent with these data. Our results reinforce the importance of distinguishing between R0 and the effective reproduction number (Re) in modelling studies.

Recruiting general practice patients for large clinical trials: lessons from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the factors that contributed to the successful completion of recruitment for the largest clinical trial ever conducted in Australia, the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. DESIGN: Enrolment of GPs; identification of potential participants in general practice databases; screening of participants. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Selected general practices across southeast Australia (Tasmania, Victoria, Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales, South Australia). MAJOR OUTCOMES: Numbers of patients per GP screened and randomised to participation; geographic and demographic factors that influenced screening and randomising of patients. RESULTS: 2717 of 5833 GPs approached (47%) enrolled to recruit patients for the study; 2053 (76%) recruited at least one randomised participant. The highest randomised participant rate per GP was for Tasmania (median, 5; IQR, 1-11), driven by the high rate of participant inclusion at phone screening. GPs in inner regional (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.45; 95% CI, 1.14-1.84) and outer regional areas (aOR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.19-2.88) were more likely than GPs in major cities to recruit at least one randomised participant. GPs in areas with a high proportion of people aged 70 years or more were more likely to randomise at least one participant (per percentage point increase: aOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05-1.15). The number of randomised patients declined with time from GP enrolment to first randomisation. CONCLUSION: General practice can be a rich environment for research when barriers to recruitment are overcome. Including regional GPs and focusing efforts in areas with the highest proportions of potentially eligible participants improves recruitment. The success of ASPREE attests to the clinical importance of its research question for Australian GPs.

Quality of Life for 19,114 participants in the ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) study and their association with sociodemographic and modifiable lifestyle risk factors.

PURPOSE: To explore the relationship between sociodemographic and lifestyle variables with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of a large cohort of 'healthy' older individuals. METHODS: The sample included individuals aged 65+ years from Australia (N = 16,703) and the USA (N = 2411) enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) multicentre placebo-controlled trial study and free of cardiovascular disease, dementia, serious physical disabilities or 'fatal' illnesses. The associations with the physical (PCS) and mental component scores (MCS) of HRQoL (SF-12 questionnaire) were explored using multiple linear regression models from data collected at baseline (2010-2014). RESULTS: The adjusted PCS mean was slightly higher in the USA (49.5 ± 9.1) than Australia (48.2 ± 11.6; p < 0.001), but MCS was similar in both samples (55.7 ± 7.5 and 55.7 ± 9.6, respectively; p = 0.603). Males, younger participants, better educated, more active individuals, or those currently drinking 1-2 alcoholic drinks/day showed a better HRQoL (results more evident for PCS than MCS), while current heavy smokers had the lowest physical HRQoL in both countries. Neither age, walking time, nor alcohol intake was associated with MCS in either cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline HRQoL of ASPREE participants was higher than that reported in population-based studies of older individuals, but the associations between sociodemographic and lifestyle variables were consistent with the published literature. As the cohort ages and develops chronic diseases, ASPREE will be able to document HRQoL changes.

An evaluation of the additional benefit of population screening for dementia beyond a passive case-finding approach.

OBJECTIVE: General practitioners (GPs) fail to identify more than 50% of dementia cases using the existing passive case-finding approach. Using data from the "Ageing in General Practice" study, we sought to establish the additional benefit of screening all patients over the age of 75 for dementia beyond those patients already identified by passive case-finding. METHOD: Patients were classified as "case-finding" (n = 425) or "screening" (n = 1006) based on their answers to four subjective memory related questions or their GP's clinical judgement of their dementia status. Cognitive status of each patient was formally assessed by a research nurse using the Cambridge Cognition Examination (CAMCOG-R). Patients then attended their usual GP for administration of the GP assessment of Cognition (GPCOG) dementia screening instrument, and follow-up care and/or referral as necessary in light of the outcome. RESULTS: The prevalence of dementia was significantly higher in the case-finding group (13.6%) compared to the screening group (4.6%; p < 0.01). The GPCOG had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 61% in the case-finding group and 39% in the screening group; negative predictive value was >95% in both groups. GPs and their patients both found the GPCOG to be an acceptable cognitive assessment tool. The dementia cases missed via case-finding were younger (p = 0.024) and less cognitively impaired (p = 0.020) than those detected. CONCLUSION: There is a very limited benefit of screening for dementia, as most people with dementia could be detected using a case-finding approach, and considerable potential for social and economic harm because of the low PPV associated with screening.

Effect of cocoa on blood pressure.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease, contributing to about 50% of cardiovascular events worldwide and 37% of cardiovascular-related deaths in Western populations. Epidemiological studies suggest that cocoa-rich products reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Flavanols found in cocoa have been shown to increase the formation of endothelial nitric oxide which promotes vasodilation and therefore blood pressure reduction. Here we update previous meta-analyses on the effect of cocoa on blood pressure. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects on blood pressure of chocolate or cocoa products versus low-flavanol products or placebo in adults with or without hypertension when consumed for two weeks or longer. SEARCH METHODS: This is an updated version of the review initially published in 2012. In this updated version, we searched the following electronic databases from inception to November 2016: Cochrane Hypertension Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE and Embase. We also searched international trial registries, and the reference lists of review articles and included trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the effects of chocolate or cocoa products on systolic and diastolic blood pressure in adults for a minimum of two weeks duration. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed the risks of bias in each trial. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses on the included studies using Review Manager 5. We explored heterogeneity with subgroup analyses by baseline blood pressure, flavanol content of control group, blinding, age and duration. Sensitivity analyses explored the influence of unusual study design. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-five trials (including 40 treatment comparisons) met the inclusion criteria. Of these, we added 17 trials (20 treatment comparisons) to the 18 trials (20 treatment comparisons) in the previous version of this updated review.Trials provided participants with 30 to 1218 mg of flavanols (mean = 670 mg) in 1.4 to 105 grams of cocoa products per day in the active intervention group. The control group received either a flavanol-free product (n = 26 treatment comparisons) or a low-flavanol-containing cocoa powder (range 6.4 to 88 mg flavanols (mean = 55 mg, 13 treatment comparisons; 259 mg, 1 trial).Meta-analyses of the 40 treatment comparisons involving 1804 mainly healthy participants revealed a small but statistically significant blood pressure-reducing effect of flavanol-rich cocoa products compared with control in trials of two to 18 weeks duration (mean nine weeks):Mean difference systolic blood pressure (SBP) (95% confidence interval (CI): -1.76 (-3.09 to -0.43) mmHg, P = 0.009, n = 40 treatment comparisons, 1804 participants;Mean difference diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (95% CI): -1.76 (-2.57 to -0.94) mmHg, P < 0.001, n = 39 treatment comparisons, 1772 participants.Baseline blood pressure may play a role in the effect of cocoa on blood pressure. While systolic blood pressure was reduced significantly by 4 mmHg in hypertensive people (n = 9 treatment comparisons, 401 participants), and tended to be lowered in prehypertensive people (n= 8 treatment comparisons, 340 participants), there was no significant difference in normotensive people (n = 23 treatment comparisons, 1063 participants); however, the test for subgroup differences was of borderline significance (P = 0.08; I2 = 60%), requiring further research to confirm the findings.Subgroup meta-analysis by blinding suggested a trend towards greater blood pressure reduction in unblinded trials compared to double-blinded trials, albeit statistically not significant. Further research is needed to confirm whether participant expectation may influence blood pressure results. Subgroup analysis by type of control (flavanol-free versus low-flavanol control) did not reveal a significant difference.Whether the age of participants plays a role in the effect of cocoa on blood pressure, with younger participants responding with greater blood pressure reduction, needs to be further investigated.Sensitivity analysis excluding trials with authors employed by trials sponsoring industry (33 trials, 1482 participants) revealed a small reduction in effect size, indicating some reporting bias.Due to the remaining heterogeneity, which we could not explain in terms of blinding, flavanol content of the control groups, age of participants, or study duration, we downgraded the quality of the evidence from high to moderate.Results of subgroup analyses should be interpreted with caution and need to be confirmed or refuted in trials using direct randomised comparisons.Generally, cocoa products were highly tolerable, with adverse effects including gastrointestinal complaints and nausea being reported by 1% of participants in the active cocoa intervention group and 0.4% of participants in the control groups (moderate-quality evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This review provides moderate-quality evidence that flavanol-rich chocolate and cocoa products cause a small (2 mmHg) blood pressure-lowering effect in mainly healthy adults in the short term.These findings are limited by the heterogeneity between trials, which could not be explained by prespecified subgroup analyses, including blinding, flavanol content of the control groups, age of participants, or study duration. However, baseline blood pressure may play a role in the effect of cocoa on blood pressure; subgroup analysis of trials with (pre)hypertensive participants revealed a greater blood pressure-reducing effect of cocoa compared to normotensive participants with borderline significance.Long-term trials investigating the effect of cocoa on clinical outcomes are also needed to assess whether cocoa has an effect on cardiovascular events and to assess potential adverse effects associated with chronic ingestion of cocoa products.

The Heart Health Study - increasing cardiovascular risk assessment in family practice for first degree relatives of patients with premature ischaemic heart disease: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to increase cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment in adult first degree relatives of patients with premature ischaemic heart disease (PIHD) using written and verbal advice. DESIGN: A prospective, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Cardiovascular wards at three South Australian hospitals. Cardiovascular risk assessments were performed in general practice. PARTICIPANTS: Patients experiencing PIHD (heart disease in men aged <55 years or women aged < 65 years) and their first degree relatives. INTERVENTION: Patients distributed either general information about heart disease and written advice to attend their general practitioner (GP) for CVD risk assessment or general information about heart disease only, to their first degrees relatives. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was the proportion of relatives who attended their GP for CVD risk assessment within 6 months of the patients' PIHD event. RESULTS: One hundred forty four patients were recruited who had 541 eligible relatives; 97/541 (18 %) of relatives agreed to participate. A larger number of intervention 41/55 (75 %) than control group 9/42 (21 %) [difference 53 %, 95 % CI 36 % - 71 %] relatives attended their GP for a CVD assessment, and 34 % of these had moderate to very high 5-year absolute risk for CVD. CONCLUSION: This low cost intervention demonstrates that individuals who have a family history of PIHD and are at moderate or high risk of CVD can be targeted for early intervention of modifiable risk factors. Further research is required to improve the uptake of the intervention in relatives. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN), Registration ID 12613000557730 .

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in Australia: results from the Australian Sentinel Practices Research Network.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate influenza vaccine coverage and effectiveness against medically attended laboratory-confirmed influenza for the 2012 season. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Test-negative design involving patients recruited as part of the Australian Sentinel Practices Research Network, a network of sentinel general practitioners throughout Australia. Throughout 2012, at the discretion of the GP at one of 102 participating practices, patients presenting with influenza-like illness were swabbed and included in the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimated as (1-OR)*100% by logistic regression. RESULTS: 1775 patients were swabbed. The epidemic period was identified as Weeks 10 to 43 of 2012. After exclusions, there were 1414 patients for the VE analysis, including 593 (42%) who tested influenza-positive and 821 who tested negative. 27% of test-negative patients were vaccinated, of whom most were aged 50 years and over. The overall VE, adjusted for age group, month of presentation and state or territory, was 23% (95% CI, -4% to 43%) against all influenza types, 15% (95% CI, -17% to 38%) against influenza A, 13% (95% CI, -20% to 36%) against influenza A(not H1) and 53% (95% CI, 5% to 77%) against influenza B. CONCLUSION: Vaccination against influenza was modestly protective, reducing the risk of medical presentation with influenza by around 23%.

Predictors of agreement between general practitioner detection of dementia and the revised Cambridge Cognitive Assessment (CAMCOG-R).

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a complex and variable condition which makes recognition of it particularly difficult in a low prevalence primary care setting. This study examined the factors associated with agreement between an objective measure of cognitive function (the revised Cambridge Cognitive Assessment, CAMCOG-R) and general practitioner (GP) clinical judgment of dementia. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study involving 165 GPs and 2,024 community-dwelling patients aged 75 years or older. GPs provided their clinical judgment in relation to each of their patient's dementia status. Each patient's cognitive function and depression status was measured by a research nurse using the CAMCOG-R and the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), respectively. RESULTS: GPs correctly identified 44.5% of patients with CAMCOG-R dementia and 90% of patients without CAMCOG-R dementia. In those patients with CAMCOG-R dementia, two patient-dependent factors were most important for predicting agreement between the CAMCOG-R and GP judgment: the CAMCOG-R score (p = 0.006) and patient's mention of subjective memory complaints (SMC) to the GP (p = 0.040). A higher CAMCOG-R (p < 0.001) score, female gender (p = 0.005), and larger practice size (p < 0.001) were positively associated with GP agreement that the patient did not have dementia. Subjective memory complaints (p < 0.001) were more likely to result in a false-positive diagnosis of dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Timely recognition of dementia is advocated for optimal dementia management, but early recognition of a possible dementia syndrome needs to be balanced with awareness of the likelihood of false positives in detection. Although GPs correctly agree with dimensions measured by the CAMCOG-R, improvements in sensitivity are required for earlier detection of dementia.

Identifying the quality of life effects of urinary incontinence with depression in an Australian population.

BACKGROUND: To explore the additive effect of urinary incontinence, in people with comorbid depression, on health related quality of life. METHODS: Males and females, 15 to 95 years (n = 3010, response rate 70.2%) were interviewed face to face in the 1998 Autumn South Australian Health Omnibus Survey. RESULTS: Self-reported urinary incontinence was found in 20.3% (n=610), and depression as defined by the PRIME-MD in 15.2% (n=459) of the survey population. Urinary incontinence with comorbid depression was found in 4.3% of the overall population. Univariate analysis showed that respondents with urinary incontinence and comorbid depression were more likely to be aged between 15 and 34 years and never married when compared to those with incontinence only. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that in people with incontinence, the risk of having comorbid depression was increased by an overall health status of Fair or Poor, or the perception that their incontinence was moderately or very serious. Respondents reporting that they experienced incontinence with comorbid depression scored significantly lower than those experiencing incontinence without depression on all dimensions of the SF-36.The interaction of the presence of incontinence and the presence of depression was significantly associated with the dimensions of physical functioning. CONCLUSIONS: Depression and incontinence both reduce QOL. When they occur together there appears to be an additive effect which affects both physical and mental health, perhaps by increasing a person's negative perceptions of their illness. Clinicians should identify and manage comorbid depression when treating patients who have incontinence to improve their overall QOL.

Predicted cardiovascular disease risk and prescribing of antihypertensive therapy among patients with hypertension in Australia using MedicineInsight.

Hypertension guidelines recommend that absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk guide the management of hypertensive patients. This study aimed to assess the proportion of patients with diagnosed hypertension with sufficient data to calculate absolute CVD risk and determine whether CVD risk is associated with prescribing of antihypertensive therapies. This was a cross-sectional study using a large national database of electronic medical records of patients attending general practice in 2018 (MedicineInsight). Of 571,492 patients aged 45-74 years without a history of CVD, 251,733 [40.6% (95% CI: 39.8-41.2)] had a recorded hypertension diagnosis. The proportion of patients with sufficient recorded data available to calculate CVD risk was higher for patients diagnosed with hypertension [51.0% (95% CI: 48.0-53.9)] than for patients without a diagnosis of hypertension [38.7% (95% CI: 36.5-41.0)]. Of those patients with sufficient data to calculate CVD risk, 29.3% (95% CI: 28.1-30.6) were at high risk clinically, 6.0% (95% CI: 5.8-6.3) were at high risk based on their CVD risk score, 12.8% (95% CI: 12.5-13.2) at moderate risk and 51.8% (95% CI: 50.8-52.9) at low risk. The overall prevalence of antihypertensive therapy was 60.9% (95% CI: 59.3-62.5). Prescribing was slightly lower in patients at high risk based on their CVD risk score [57.4% (95% CI: 55.4-59.4)] compared with those at low [63.3% (95% CI: 61.9-64.8)] or moderate risk [61.8% (95% CI: 60.2-63.4)] or at high risk clinically [64.1% (95% CI: 61.9-66.3)]. Guideline adherence is suboptimal, and many patients miss out on treatments that may prevent future CVD events.

The Cost of Uncontrolled Blood Pressure in Australian General Practice: A Modelling Study Using Electronic Health Records (MedicineInsight).

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the most common condition seen in Australian general practice. Despite hypertension being amenable to lifestyle modifications and pharmacological treatment, only around half of these patients have controlled blood pressure levels (< 140/90 mmHg), placing them at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the health and acute hospitalisation costs of uncontrolled hypertension among patients attending general practice. METHODS: We used population data and electronic health records from 634,000 patients aged 45-74 years who regularly attended an Australian general practice between 2016 and 2018 (MedicineInsight database). An existing worksheet-based costing model was adapted to calculate the potential cost savings for acute hospitalisation of primary cardiovascular disease events by reducing the risk of a cardiovascular event over the next 5 years through improved systolic blood pressure control. The model estimated the number of expected cardiovascular disease events and associated acute hospital costs under current levels of systolic blood pressure and compared this estimate with the expected number of cardiovascular disease events and costs under different levels of systolic blood pressure control. RESULTS: The model estimated that across all Australians aged 45-74 years who visit their general practitioner (n = 8.67 million), 261,858 cardiovascular disease events can be expected over the next 5 years at current systolic blood pressure levels (mean 137.8 mmHg, standard deviation = 12.3 mmHg), with a cost of AUD$1813 million (in 2019-20). By reducing the systolic blood pressure of all patients with a systolic blood pressure greater than 139 mmHg to 139 mmHg, 25,845 cardiovascular disease events could be avoided with an associated reduction in acute hospital costs of AUD$179 million. If systolic blood pressure is lowered further to 129 mmHg for all those with systolic blood pressure greater than 129 mmHg, 56,169 cardiovascular disease events could be avoided with potential cost savings of AUD$389 million. Sensitivity analyses indicate that potential cost savings range from AUD$46 million to AUD$1406 million and AUD$117 million to AUD$2009 million for the two scenarios, respectively. Cost savings by practice range from AUD$16,479 for small practices to AUD$82,493 for large practices. CONCLUSIONS: The aggregate cost effects of poor blood pressure control in primary care are high, but cost implications at the individual practice level are modest. The potential cost savings improve the potential to design cost-effective interventions, but such interventions may be best targeted at a population level rather than at individual practices.

Potentially inappropriate medication use is associated with increased risk of incident disability in healthy older adults.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to minimize medication risks among older adults include avoidance of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs). However, most PIMs research has focused on older people in aged or inpatient care, creating an evidence gap for community-dwelling older adults. To address this gap, we investigated the impact of PIMs use in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) clinical trial cohort. METHODS: Analysis included 19,114 community-dwelling ASPREE participants aged 70+ years (65+ if US minorities) without major cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, or significant physical disability. PIMs were defined according to a modified 2019 AGS Beers Criteria. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to estimate the association between baseline PIMs exposure and disability-free survival, death, incident dementia, disability, and hospitalization, with adjustment for sex, age, country, years of education, frailty, average gait speed, and comorbidities. RESULTS: At baseline, 7396 (39% of the total) participants were prescribed at least one PIM. Compared with those unexposed, participants on a PIM at baseline were at an increased risk of persistent physical disability (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21, 1.80) and hospitalization (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.20, 1.32), but had similar rates of disability-free survival (adjusted HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.93, 1.13) and death (adjusted HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.81, 1.05). These effects did not vary by polypharmacy status in interaction analyses. PIMs exposure was associated with higher risk of disability followed by hospitalization (adjusted HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.25, 2.96) as well as vice versa (adjusted HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.15, 2.05). PPIs, anti-psychotics and benzodiazepines, were associated with increased risk of disability. CONCLUSIONS: PIMs exposure is associated with subsequent increased risk of both incident disability and hospitalization. Increased risk of disability prior to hospitalization suggests that PIMs use may start the disability cascade in healthy older adults. Our findings emphasize the importance of caution when prescribing PIMs to older adults in otherwise good health.

Associations of body size with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in healthy older adults.

In the general population, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference are recognized risk factors for several chronic diseases and all-cause mortality. However, whether these associations are the same for older adults is less clear. The association of baseline BMI and waist circumference with all-cause and cause-specific mortality was investigated in 18,209 Australian and US participants (mean age: 75.1 ± 4.5 years) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study, followed up for a median of 6.9 years (IQR: 5.7, 8.0). There were substantially different relationships observed in men and women. In men, the lowest risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was observed with a BMI in the range 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 [HR25-29.9 vs 21-24.9 kg/m2: 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-1.00] while the highest risk was in those who were underweight [HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21-24.9 kg/m2: 1.82; 95% CI 1.30-2.55], leading to a clear U-shaped relationship. In women, all-cause mortality was highest in those with the lowest BMI leading to a J-shaped relationship (HRBMI <21 kg/m2 vs BMI 21-24.9 kg/m2: 1.64; 95% CI 1.26-2.14). Waist circumference showed a weaker relationship with all-cause mortality in both men and women. There was little evidence of a relationship between either index of body size and subsequent cancer mortality in men or women, while non-cardiovascular non-cancer mortality was higher in underweight participants. For older men, being overweight was found to be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality, while among both men and women, a BMI in the underweight category was associated with a higher risk. Waist circumference alone had little association with all-cause or cause-specific mortality risk.Trial registration ASPREE https://ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT01038583.

Effect of cocoa on blood pressure.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease attributing to about 50% of cardiovascular events worldwide and 37% of cardiovascular related deaths in Western populations. Epidemiological studies suggest that cocoa rich products reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Flavanols found in cocoa have been shown to increase the formation of endothelial nitric oxide which promotes vasodilation and therefore blood pressure reduction. Previous meta-analyses have shown that cocoa-rich foods may reduce blood pressure. Recently additional trials had conflicting results. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effect of flavanol-rich chocolate or cocoa products on blood pressure in people with or without hypertension. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following electronic databases from inception to November 2011: Cochrane Hypertension Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE. In addition we searched international trial registries, and the reference lists of review articles and included trials. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCT) investigating the effects of chocolate or cocoa products on systolic and diastolic blood pressure in adults for a minimum of two weeks duration. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently extracted data and assessed the risk of bias in each trial in consultation with a third author. Random effects meta-analyses on all studies fitting the inclusion criteria were conducted using Review Manager version 5.1 and Stata version 12. Heterogeneity was explored by subgroup analyses and univariate meta-regression analysis of several variables including dosage of flavanol content (total or monomers) in chocolate or cocoa products, blinding, baseline blood pressure, theobromine content, sugar content, body-mass-index (BMI), duration and age. MAIN RESULTS: Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses of the 20 studies involving 856 mainly healthy participants revealed a statistically significant blood pressure reducing effect of flavanol-rich cocoa products compared with control in short-term trials of 2-18 weeks duration: Mean difference SBP (95%CI): -2.77 (-4.72, -0.82) mm Hg, p=0.005, n=20; mean difference DBP (95%CI): - 2.20 (-3.46, -0.93) mm Hg, p=0.006, n=19 available for DBP.Trials provided participants with 30-1080 mg of flavanols (mean=545.5 mg) in 3.6-105 g of cocoa products per day in the active intervention group. In half of the trials (n=10) the active group consumed 500-750 mg of flavanols per day. The control group received either a flavanol-free product (n=12) or a low-flavanol containing cocoa powder (6.4 and 41 mg flavanols, n=8). Subgroup meta-analysis of trials with a flavanol-free control group revealed a significant blood pressure reducing effect, in contrast to trials using a low-flavanol product in the control group. This analysis may have been confounded by trial duration and the level of blinding of participants.Trial duration was short (mean 4.4 weeks, range 2-8 weeks, n=19, and one trial of 18 weeks). A significant blood pressure reducing effect was evident in trials of 2 weeks duration (n=9), but not in trials of >2 weeks duration (n=11). It is important to note that seven out of the nine trials (78%) of 2 weeks duration also had a flavanol-free control group. Therefore, subgroup analysis by duration might be confounded by flavanol dosage used in the control groups, and the level of blinding of participants.Adverse effects including gastrointestinal complaints and distaste of the trial product were reported by 5% of patients in the active cocoa intervention group and 1% of patients in the control groups. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Flavanol-rich chocolate and cocoa products may have a small but statistically significant effect in lowering blood pressure by 2-3 mm Hg in the short term.Our findings are limited by the heterogeneity between trials, which was explored by univariate meta-regression and subgroup analyses. Subgroup meta-analysis of trials using a flavanol-free control group revealed a significant blood pressure reducing effect of cocoa, whereas analysis of trials using a low-flavanol control product did not. While it appears that shorter trials of 2 weeks duration were more effective, analysis may be confounded by type of control and unblinding of participants, as the majority of 2-week trials also used a flavanol-free control and unblinding of participants. Results of these and other subgroup analyses based on, for example, age of participants, should be interpreted with caution and need to be confirmed or refuted in trials using direct randomized comparison.Long-term trials investigating the effect of cocoa products are needed to determine whether or not blood pressure is reduced on a chronic basis by daily ingestion of cocoa. Furthermore, long-term trials investigating the effect of cocoa on clinical outcomes are also needed to assess whether cocoa has an effect on cardiovascular events and to assess potential adverse effects associated with chronic ingestion of cocoa products.