A deep catalogue of protein-coding variation in 983,578 individuals.

Rare coding variants that significantly impact function provide insights into the biology of a gene1-3. However, ascertaining their frequency requires large sample sizes4-8. Here, we present a catalogue of human protein-coding variation, derived from exome sequencing of 983,578 individuals across diverse populations. 23% of the Regeneron Genetics Center Million Exome data (RGC-ME) comes from non-European individuals of African, East Asian, Indigenous American, Middle Eastern, and South Asian ancestry. This catalogue includes over 10.4 million missense and 1.1 million predicted loss-of-function (pLOF) variants. We identify individuals with rare biallelic pLOF variants in 4,848 genes, 1,751 of which have not been previously reported. From precise quantitative estimates of selection against heterozygous loss-of-function, we identify 3,988 loss-of-function intolerant genes, including 86 that were previously assessed as tolerant and 1,153 lacking established disease annotation. We also define regions of missense depletion at high resolution. Notably, 1,482 genes have regions depleted of missense variants despite being tolerant to pLOF variants. Finally, we estimate that 3% of individuals have a clinically actionable genetic variant, and that 11,773 variants reported in ClinVar with unknown significance are likely to be deleterious cryptic splice sites. To facilitate variant interpretation and genetics-informed precision medicine, we make this important resource of coding variation from the RGC-ME accessible via a public variant allele frequency browser.

Genotyping, sequencing and analysis of 140,000 adults from Mexico City.

The Mexico City Prospective Study is a prospective cohort of more than 150,000 adults recruited two decades ago from the urban districts of Coyoacán and Iztapalapa in Mexico City1. Here we generated genotype and exome-sequencing data for all individuals and whole-genome sequencing data for 9,950 selected individuals. We describe high levels of relatedness and substantial heterogeneity in ancestry composition across individuals. Most sequenced individuals had admixed Indigenous American, European and African ancestry, with extensive admixture from Indigenous populations in central, southern and southeastern Mexico. Indigenous Mexican segments of the genome had lower levels of coding variation but an excess of homozygous loss-of-function variants compared with segments of African and European origin. We estimated ancestry-specific allele frequencies at 142 million genomic variants, with an effective sample size of 91,856 for Indigenous Mexican ancestry at exome variants, all available through a public browser. Using whole-genome sequencing, we developed an imputation reference panel that outperforms existing panels at common variants in individuals with high proportions of central, southern and southeastern Indigenous Mexican ancestry. Our work illustrates the value of genetic studies in diverse populations and provides foundational imputation and allele frequency resources for future genetic studies in Mexico and in the United States, where the Hispanic/Latino population is predominantly of Mexican descent.

Evaluation of effective coverage for type 2 diabetes in Mexican primary care health information systems: a retrospective registry analysis.

BACKGROUND: As the leading cause of disability and the fourth leading cause of premature death in Mexico, type 2 diabetes (T2D) represents a serious public health concern. The incidence of diabetes has increased dramatically in recent years, and data from the Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) indicate that many people remain undiagnosed. Persistent socioeconomic health care barriers exacerbate this situation, as T2D morbidity and mortality are worsened in vulnerable populations, such as those without social security. We evaluated the performance of public primary health centers (PHCs) in T2D medical attention through the measure of effective coverage (EC, a combined measure of health care need, use, and quality) at national, state, health jurisdiction, and municipality levels. METHODS: This retrospective analysis used blinded data recorded during 2017 in the Non-communicable Diseases National Information System (SIC) and T2D prevalence reported in 2018 ENSANUT to evaluate the EC achieved. We included individuals ≥ 20 years old without social security who did not declare the use of private health care services. Each EC component (need, use, and quality) was estimated based on the Shengelia adapted framework. The Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to evaluate the associations among EC quintiles and demographics. RESULTS: In 2017, 26.5 million individuals, aged ≥ 20 years, without social security, and without the use of private health care services, were under the care of 12,086 PHCs. The national prevalence of T2D was 10.3%, equivalent to 2.6 million people living with T2D in need of primary health care. Large contrasts were seen among EC components between and within Mexican states. We found that only 37.1% of the above individuals received health services at PHCs and of them, 25.8% improved their metabolic condition. The national EC was 9.3%, and the range (by health jurisdiction) was 0.2%-38.6%, representing a large geographic disparity in EC. We found an evident disconnect among need, utilization, and quality rates across the country. CONCLUSIONS: Expansion and improvement of EC are urgently needed to address the growing number of people living with T2D in Mexico, particularly in states with vulnerable populations.

Type 2 diabetes epidemic in Mexico. Burden of disease 1990-2021 analysis and implications for public policies.

BACKGROUND: Mexico faces a challenge due to the burden imposed by type 2 diabetes (T2D). OBJECTIVE: To analyze T2D epidemiology and burden in Mexico from 1990 to 2021, at the national and state levels. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study were used to evaluate the prevalence, incidence, mortality, fatal and non-fatal burden. Metabolic, environmental and behavioral factors were considered. Comparative analyses were carried out by gender, age and state of the country. RESULTS: The prevalence of T2D increased by 25%. The incidence increased in those younger than 45 years, with a mortality decrease being found among women. The rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALY) showed an increase in all states, from 45.2% in Nuevo León to 237.6% in Tabasco. In 2021, T2D caused the loss of 3.1 million DALYs, which accounted for 6.6% of total burden in Mexico, out of which 64% was due to premature deaths. Diabetic neuropathy affected 47%, and there were 270,000 cases of visual impairment; 66.3% of the burden was attributed to obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive policies are urgently needed in order to reduce the burden of T2D in Mexico, through standardized guidelines, evidence-based strategies and technological resources that improve medical care accessibility and efficiency.

ANTECEDENTES: México enfrenta un desafío por la carga que representa la diabetes tipo 2 (DT2). OBJETIVO: Analizar la epidemiología y la carga de DT2 en México de 1990 a 2021 en los ámbitos nacional y estatal. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Se empleó el Global Burden of Disease 2021 para evaluar prevalencia, incidencia, mortalidad, carga letal y no letal. Se consideraron factores metabólicos, ambientales y de comportamiento. Se realizó análisis comparativo por sexo, edad y entidad federativa. RESULTADOS: Se incrementó la prevalencia de DT2 en 25 % y la incidencia en menores de 45 años; la mortalidad en mujeres disminuyó. La tasa de años de vida saludable (AVISA) perdidos se incrementó en todos los estados, entre 45.2 % en Nuevo León y 237.6 % en Tabasco. En 2021, la DT2 ocasionó 3.1 millones de AVISA perdidos, que representaron 6.6 % de la carga total en México, de la cual 64 % se atribuyó a muertes prematuras. La neuropatía diabética afectó a 47 % y las afecciones visuales a 270 000 personas; 66.3 % de la carga se atribuyó a obesidad. CONCLUSIONES: Urgen políticas integrales para reducir la carga de DT2 en México, mediante pautas estandarizadas, estrategias basadas en evidencia y recursos tecnológicos que mejoren la accesibilidad y eficiencia de la atención médica.

Influenza in the school-aged population in Mexico: burden of disease and cost-effectiveness of vaccination in children.

BACKGROUND: The current national influenza vaccination schedule in Mexico does not recommend vaccination in the school-aged population (5-11 years). Currently, there are limited data from middle-income countries analysing the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in this population. We explored the clinical effects and economic benefits of expanding the current national influenza vaccination schedule in Mexico to include the school-aged population. METHODS: A static 1-year model incorporating herd effect was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of expanding the current national influenza vaccination schedule of Mexico to include the school-aged population. We performed a cross-sectional epidemiological study using influenza records (2009-2018), death records (2010-2015), and discharge and hospitalisation records (2010-2016), from the databases of Mexico's Influenza Surveillance System (SISVEFLU), the National Mortality Epidemiological and Statistical System (SEED), and the Automated Hospital Discharge System (SAEH), respectively. Cost estimates for influenza cases were based on 7 scenarios using data analysed from SISVEFLU; assumptions for clinical management of cases were defined according to Mexico's national clinical guidelines. The primary health outcome for this study was the number of influenza cases avoided. A sensitivity analysis was performed using conservative and optimistic parameters (vaccination coverage: 30% / 70%, Vaccine effectiveness: 19% / 68%). RESULTS: It was estimated that expanding the influenza immunisation programme to cover school-aged population in Mexico over the 2018-2019 influenza season would result in 671,461 cases of influenza avoided (50% coverage and 50% effectiveness assumed). Associated with this were 262,800 fewer outpatient consultations; 154,100 fewer emergency room consultations; 97,600 fewer hospitalisations, and 15 fewer deaths. Analysis of cases avoided by age-group showed that 55.4% of them were in the school-aged population, and the decrease in outpatient consultations was largest in this population. There was an overall decrease in the economic burden for the Mexican health care system of 111.9 million US dollars; the immunization programme was determined to be cost-saving in the base, conservative and optimistic scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccinating school-aged population in Mexico would be cost-effective; expansion of the current national vaccination schedule to this age group is supported.

General and Abdominal Adiposity and Mortality in Mexico City: A Prospective Study of 150 000 Adults.

Background: Some reports suggest that body mass index (BMI) is not strongly associated with mortality in Hispanic populations. Objective: To assess the causal relevance of adiposity to mortality in Mexican adults, avoiding reverse causality biases. Design: Prospective study. Setting: 2 Mexico City districts. Participants: 159 755 adults aged 35 years and older at recruitment, followed for up to 14 years. Participants with a hemoglobin A1c level of 7% or greater, diabetes, or other chronic diseases were excluded. Measurements: BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, waist circumference, and cause-specific mortality. Cox regression, adjusted for confounders, yielded mortality hazard ratios (HRs) after at least 5 years of follow-up and before age 75 years. Results: Among 115 400 participants aged 35 to <75 years at recruitment, mean BMI was 28.0 kg/m2 (SD, 4.1 kg/m2) in men and 29.6 kg/m2 (SD, 5.1 kg/m2) in women. The association of BMI at recruitment with all-cause mortality was J-shaped, with the minimum at 25 to <27.5 kg/m2. Above 25 kg/m2, each 5-kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with a 30% increase in all-cause mortality (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.24 to 1.36]). This association was stronger at ages 40 to <60 years (HR, 1.40 [CI, 1.30 to 1.49]) than at ages 60 to <75 years (HR, 1.24 [CI, 1.17 to 1.31]) but was not materially affected by sex, smoking, or other confounders. The associations of mortality with BMI and waist-to-hip ratio were similarly strong, and each was weakened only slightly by adjustment for the other. Waist circumference was strongly related to mortality and remained so even after adjustment for BMI and hip circumference. Limitation: Analyses were limited to mortality. Conclusion: General, and particularly abdominal, adiposity were strongly associated with mortality in this Mexican population. Primary Funding Source: Mexican Health Ministry, Mexican National Council of Science and Technology, Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, and Kidney Research UK.

Diabetes and Cause-Specific Mortality in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Most large, prospective studies of the effects of diabetes on mortality have focused on high-income countries where patients have access to reasonably good medical care and can receive treatments to establish and maintain good glycemic control. In those countries, diabetes less than doubles the rate of death from any cause. Few large, prospective studies have been conducted in middle-income countries where obesity and diabetes have become common and glycemic control may be poor. METHODS: From 1998 through 2004, we recruited approximately 50,000 men and 100,000 women 35 years of age or older into a prospective study in Mexico City, Mexico. We recorded the presence or absence of previously diagnosed diabetes, obtained and stored blood samples, and tracked 12-year disease-specific deaths through January 1, 2014. We accepted diabetes as the underlying cause of death only for deaths that were due to acute diabetic crises. We estimated rate ratios for death among participants who had diabetes at recruitment versus those who did not have diabetes at recruitment; data from participants who had chronic diseases other than diabetes were excluded from the main analysis. RESULTS: At the time of recruitment, obesity was common and the prevalence of diabetes rose steeply with age (3% at 35 to 39 years of age and >20% by 60 years of age). Participants who had diabetes had poor glycemic control (mean [±SD] glycated hemoglobin level, 9.0±2.4%), and the rates of use of other vasoprotective medications were low (e.g., 30% of participants with diabetes were receiving antihypertensive medication at recruitment and 1% were receiving lipid-lowering medication). Previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with rate ratios for death from any cause of 5.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.0 to 6.0) at 35 to 59 years of age, 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9 to 3.3) at 60 to 74 years of age, and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8 to 2.1) at 75 to 84 years of age. Between 35 and 74 years of age, the excess mortality associated with previously diagnosed diabetes accounted for one third of all deaths; the largest absolute excess risks of death were from renal disease (rate ratio, 20.1; 95% CI, 17.2 to 23.4), cardiac disease (rate ratio, 3.7; 95% CI, 3.2 to 4.2), infection (rate ratio, 4.7; 95% CI, 4.0 to 5.5), acute diabetic crises (8% of all deaths among participants who had previously diagnosed diabetes), and other vascular disease (mainly stroke). Little association was observed between diabetes and mortality from cirrhosis, cancer, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSIONS: In this study in Mexico, a middle-income country with high levels of obesity, diabetes was common, glycemic control was poor, and diabetes was associated with a far worse prognosis than that seen in high-income countries; it accounted for at least one third of all deaths between 35 and 74 years of age. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and others.).

Enablers and inhibitors of the implementation of the Casalud Model, a Mexican innovative healthcare model for non-communicable disease prevention and control.

BACKGROUND: The Mexican healthcare system is under increasing strain due to the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases (especially type 2 diabetes), mounting costs, and a reactive curative approach focused on treating existing diseases and their complications rather than preventing them. Casalud is a comprehensive primary healthcare model that enables proactive prevention and disease management throughout the continuum of care, using innovative technologies and a patient-centred approach. METHODS: Data were collected over a 2-year period in eight primary health clinics (PHCs) in two states in central Mexico to identify and assess enablers and inhibitors of the implementation process of Casalud. We used mixed quantitative and qualitative data collection tools: surveys, in-depth interviews, and participant and non-participant observations. Transcripts and field notes were analyzed and coded using Framework Analysis, focusing on defining and describing enablers and inhibitors of the implementation process. RESULTS: We identified seven recurring topics in the analyzed textual data. Four topics were categorized as enablers: political support for the Casalud model, alignment with current healthcare trends, ongoing technical improvements (to ease adoption and support), and capacity building. Three topics were categorized as inhibitors: administrative practices, health clinic human resources, and the lack of a shared vision of the model. CONCLUSIONS: Enablers are located at PHCs and across all levels of government, and include political support for, and the technological validity of, the model. The main inhibitor is the persistence of obsolete administrative practices at both state and PHC levels, which puts the administrative feasibility of the model's implementation in jeopardy. Constructing a shared vision around the model could facilitate the implementation of Casalud as well as circumvent administrative inhibitors. In order to overcome PHC-level barriers, it is crucial to have an efficient and straightforward adaptation and updating process for technological tools. One of the key lessons learned from the implementation of the Casalud model is that a degree of uncertainty must be tolerated when quickly scaling up a healthcare intervention. Similar patient-centred technology-based models must remain open to change and be able to quickly adapt to changing circumstances.

Risk of a vector-borne endemic zoonosis for wildlife: Hosts, large-scale geography, and diversity of vector-host interactions for Trypanosoma cruzi.

Drivers for wildlife infection are multiple and complex, particularly for vector-borne diseases. Here, we studied the role of host competence, geographic area provenance, and diversity of vector-host interactions as drivers of wild mammal infection risk to Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of Chagas disease. We performed a systematic sampling of wild mammals in 11 states of Mexico, from 2017 to 2018. We tested the positivity of T. cruzi with the Tc24 marker in tissues samples for 61 wild mammal species (524 specimens sampled). 26 mammal species were positive for T. cruzi, of which 11 are new hosts recorded in Mexico 75 specimens were positive and 449 were negative for T. cruzi infection, yielding an overall prevalence of 14.3%. The standardized infection risk of T. cruzi of our examined specimens was similar, no matter the host species or their geographic origins. Additionally, we used published data of mammal positives for T. cruzi to complement records of T. cruzi infection in wild mammals and inferred a trophic network of Triatoma spp. (vectors) and wild mammal species in Mexico, using spatial data-mining modelling. Infection with T. cruzi was not homogeneously distributed in the inferred trophic network. This information allowed us to develop a predictive model for T. cruzi infection risk for wild mammals in Mexico, considering risk as a function of the diversity of vector-host spatial associations in a large-scale geographic context, finding that the addition of competent vectors to a multi-host parasite system amplifies host infection risk. The diversity of vector-host interactions per se constitutes a relevant driver of infection risk because hosts and vectors are not isolated from each other.

Gestational Diabetes Mellitus Subtypes Classified by Oral Glucose Tolerance Test and Maternal and Perinatal Outcomes: Results of a Mexican Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study "Cuido Mi Embarazo".

Purpose: This study explores the impact of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) subtypes classified by oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) values on maternal and perinatal outcomes. Patients and Methods: This multicenter prospective cohort study (May 2019-December 2022) included participants from the Mexican multicenter cohort study Cuido mi Embarazo (CME). Women were classified into four groups per 75-g 2-h OGTT: 1) normal glucose tolerance (normal OGTT), 2) GDM-Sensitivity (isolated abnormal fasting or abnormal fasting in combination with 1-h or 2-h abnormal results), 3) GDM-Secretion (isolated abnormal values at 1-h or 2-h or their combination), and 4) GDM-Mixed (three abnormal values). Cesarean delivery, neonates large for gestational age (LGA), and pre-term birth rates were among the outcomes compared. Between-group comparisons were analyzed using either the t-test, chi-square test, or Fisher's exact test. Results: Of 2,056 Mexican pregnant women in the CME cohort, 294 (14.3%) had GDM; 53.7%, 34.4%, and 11.9% were classified as GDM-Sensitivity, GDM-Secretion, and GDM-Mixed subtypes, respectively. Women with GDM were older (p = 0.0001) and more often multiparous (p = 0.119) vs without GDM. Cesarean delivery (63.3%; p = 0.02) and neonate LGA (10.7%; p = 0.078) were higher in the GDM-Mixed group than the overall GDM group (55.6% and 8.4%, respectively). Pre-term birth was more common in the GDM-Sensitivity group than in the overall GDM group (10.2% vs 8.5%, respectively; p=0.022). At 6 months postpartum, prediabetes was more frequent in the GDM-Sensitivity group than in the overall GDM group (31.6% vs 25.5%). Type 2 diabetes was more common in the GDM-Mixed group than in the overall GDM group (10.0% vs 3.3%). Conclusion: GDM subtypes effectively stratified maternal and perinatal risks. GDM-Mixed subtype increased the risk of cesarean delivery, LGA, and type 2 diabetes postpartum. GDM subtypes may help personalize clinical interventions and optimize maternal and perinatal outcomes.

Protein-truncating variants in BSN are associated with severe adult-onset obesity, type 2 diabetes and fatty liver disease.

Obesity is a major risk factor for many common diseases and has a substantial heritable component. To identify new genetic determinants, we performed exome-sequence analyses for adult body mass index (BMI) in up to 587,027 individuals. We identified rare loss-of-function variants in two genes (BSN and APBA1) with effects substantially larger than those of well-established obesity genes such as MC4R. In contrast to most other obesity-related genes, rare variants in BSN and APBA1 were not associated with normal variation in childhood adiposity. Furthermore, BSN protein-truncating variants (PTVs) magnified the influence of common genetic variants associated with BMI, with a common variant polygenic score exhibiting an effect twice as large in BSN PTV carriers than in noncarriers. Finally, we explored the plasma proteomic signatures of BSN PTV carriers as well as the functional consequences of BSN deletion in human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived hypothalamic neurons. Collectively, our findings implicate degenerative processes in synaptic function in the etiology of adult-onset obesity.

Characterising the contribution of rare protein-coding germline variants to prostate cancer risk and severity in 37,184 cases.

The etiology of prostate cancer, the second most common cancer in men globally, has a strong heritable component. While rare coding germline variants in several genes have been identified as risk factors from candidate gene and linkage studies, the exome-wide spectrum of causal rare variants remains to be fully explored. To more comprehensively address their contribution, we analysed data from 37,184 prostate cancer cases and 331,329 male controls from five cohorts with germline exome/genome sequencing and one cohort with imputed array data from a population enriched in low-frequency deleterious variants. Our gene-level collapsing analysis revealed that rare damaging variants in SAMHD1 as well as genes in the DNA damage response pathway (BRCA2, ATM and CHEK2) are associated with the risk of overall prostate cancer. We also found that rare damaging variants in AOX1 and BRCA2 were associated with increased severity of prostate cancer in a case-only analysis of aggressive versus non-aggressive prostate cancer. At the single-variant level, we found rare non-synonymous variants in three genes (HOXB13, CHEK2, BIK) significantly associated with increased risk of overall prostate cancer and in four genes (ANO7, SPDL1, AR, TERT) with decreased risk. Altogether, this study provides deeper insights into the genetic architecture and biological basis of prostate cancer risk and severity.

Prediabetes as a risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective analysis of 115,919 adults without diabetes in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: Prediabetes has been associated with increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. However, no large-scale studies have been conducted in Mexico or Latin America examining these associations. METHODS: We analyzed data from 115,919 adults without diabetes (diagnosed or undiagnosed) aged 35-84 years who participated in the Mexico City Prospective Study between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed until January 1st, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. We defined prediabetes according to the American Diabetes Association (ADA, HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4%) and the International Expert Committee (IEC, HbA1c 6.0-6.4%) definitions. Cox regression adjusted for confounders was used to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality rate ratios (RR) at ages 35-74 years associated with prediabetes. FINDINGS: During 2,085,392 person-years of follow-up (median in survivors 19 years), there were 6,810 deaths at ages 35-74, including 1,742 from cardiovascular disease, 892 from renal disease and 108 from acute diabetic crises. Of 110,405 participants aged 35-74 years at recruitment, 28,852 (26%) had ADA-defined prediabetes and 7,203 (7%) had IEC-defined prediabetes. Compared with those without prediabetes, individuals with prediabetes had higher risk of all-cause mortality at ages 35-74 years (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.19 for ADA-defined prediabetes and RR 1.28, 1.18-1.39 for IEC-defined prediabetes), as well as increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (RR 1.22 [1.10-1.35] and 1.42 [1.22-1.65], respectively), renal mortality (RR 1.35 [1.08-1.68] and 1.69 [1.24-2.31], respectively), and death from an acute diabetic crisis (RR 2.63 [1.76-3.94] and 3.43 [2.09-5.62], respectively). RRs were larger at younger than at older ages, and similar for men compared to women. The absolute excess risk associated with ADA and IEC-defined prediabetes at ages 35-74 accounted for6% and 3% of cardiovascular deaths respectively, 10% and 5% of renal deaths respectively, and 31% and 14% of acute diabetic deaths respectively. INTERPRETATION: Prediabetes is a significant risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, renal, and acute diabetic deaths in Mexican adults. Identification and timely management of individuals with prediabetes for targeted risk reduction could contribute to reducing premature mortality from cardiometabolic causes in this population. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council. Instituto Nacional de Geriatría (Mexico City).

Diabetes and infectious disease mortality in Mexico City.

INTRODUCTION: Although higher risks of infectious diseases among individuals with diabetes have long been recognized, the magnitude of these risks is poorly described, particularly in lower income settings. This study sought to assess the risk of death from infection associated with diabetes in Mexico. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Between 1998 and 2004, a total of 159 755 adults ≥35 years were recruited from Mexico City and followed up until January 2021 for cause-specific mortality. Cox regression yielded adjusted rate ratios (RR) for death due to infection associated with previously diagnosed and undiagnosed (HbA1c ≥6.5%) diabetes and, among participants with previously diagnosed diabetes, with duration of diabetes and with HbA1c. RESULTS: Among 130 997 participants aged 35-74 and without other prior chronic diseases at recruitment, 12.3% had previously diagnosed diabetes, with a mean (SD) HbA1c of 9.1% (2.5%), and 4.9% had undiagnosed diabetes. During 2.1 million person-years of follow-up, 2030 deaths due to infectious causes were recorded at ages 35-74. Previously diagnosed diabetes was associated with an RR for death from infection of 4.48 (95% CI 4.05-4.95), compared with participants without diabetes, with notably strong associations with death from urinary tract (9.68 (7.07-13.3)) and skin, bone and connective tissue (9.19 (5.92-14.3)) infections and septicemia (8.37 (5.97-11.7)). In those with previously diagnosed diabetes, longer diabetes duration (1.03 (1.02-1.05) per 1 year) and higher HbA1c (1.12 (1.08-1.15) per 1.0%) were independently associated with higher risk of death due to infection. Even among participants with undiagnosed diabetes, the risk of death due to infection was nearly treble the risk of those without diabetes (2.69 (2.31-3.13)). CONCLUSIONS: In this study of Mexican adults, diabetes was common, frequently poorly controlled, and associated with much higher risks of death due to infection than observed previously, accounting for approximately one-third of all premature mortality due to infection.

Body Composition and Risk of Vascular-Metabolic Mortality Risk in 113 000 Mexican Men and Women Without Prior Chronic Disease.

Background Body-mass index is the sum of fat mass index (FMI) and lean mass index (LMI), which vary by age, sex, and impact on disease outcomes. We investigated the separate and joint relevance of FMI and LMI with vascular-metabolic causes of death in Mexican adults. Methods and Results A total of 113 025 adults aged 35 to 74 years and free from diabetes or other chronic diseases when recruited into the Mexico City Prospective Study were followed for 19 years. Cox models estimated sex-specific death rate ratios from vascular-metabolic causes after adjustment for confounders and exclusion of the first 5 years of follow-up. To account for the strong correlation between FMI and LMI, additional models estimated rate ratios associated with "residual FMI" and "residual LMI" (ie, the residuals from linear regression analyses of FMI on LMI, or vice versa). In both sexes, higher FMI and LMI were associated with higher risks of vascular-metabolic mortality. For a given (ie, fixed) level of LMI, the rate ratio (95% CI) for vascular-metabolic mortality per 1 kg/m2 higher residual FMI strengthened and was higher in women (1.52 [1.38-1.68]) than in men (1.19 [1.13-1.25]). By contrast, for a given level of FMI, higher residual LMI was inversely associated with vascular-metabolic mortality (rate ratio per 1 kg/m2 0.67 [0.56-0.80] in women and 0.94 [0.90-0.98] in men). Conclusions In this study, higher residual FMI was more strongly associated with vascular-metabolic mortality in women than in men. Conversely, higher residual LMI was inversely associated with vascular-metabolic mortality, particularly in women.

Development and validation of a multivariable genotype-informed gestational diabetes prediction algorithm for clinical use in the Mexican population: insights into susceptibility mechanisms.

INTRODUCTION: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is underdiagnosed in Mexico. Early GDM risk stratification through prediction modeling is expected to improve preventative care. We developed a GDM risk assessment model that integrates both genetic and clinical variables. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from pregnant Mexican women enrolled in the 'Cuido mi Embarazo' (CME) cohort were used for development (107 cases, 469 controls) and data from the 'Mónica Pretelini Sáenz' Maternal Perinatal Hospital (HMPMPS) cohort were used for external validation (32 cases, 199 controls). A 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with 75 g glucose performed at 24-28 gestational weeks was used to diagnose GDM. A total of 114 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with reported predictive power were selected for evaluation. Blood samples collected during the OGTT were used for SNP analysis. The CME cohort was randomly divided into training (70% of the cohort) and testing datasets (30% of the cohort). The training dataset was divided into 10 groups, 9 to build the predictive model and 1 for validation. The model was further validated using the testing dataset and the HMPMPS cohort. RESULTS: Nineteen attributes (14 SNPs and 5 clinical variables) were significantly associated with the outcome; 11 SNPs and 4 clinical variables were included in the GDM prediction regression model and applied to the training dataset. The algorithm was highly predictive, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.7507, 79% sensitivity, and 71% specificity and adequately powered to discriminate between cases and controls. On further validation, the training dataset and HMPMPS cohort had AUCs of 0.8256 and 0.8001, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a predictive model using both genetic and clinical factors to identify Mexican women at risk of developing GDM. These findings may contribute to a greater understanding of metabolic functions that underlie elevated GDM risk and support personalized patient recommendations.

Educational and social inequalities and cause-specific mortality in Mexico City: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Social inequalities in adult mortality have been reported across diverse populations, but there is no large-scale prospective evidence from Mexico. We aimed to quantify social, including educational, inequalities in mortality among adults in Mexico City. METHODS: The Mexico City Prospective Study recruited 150 000 adults aged 35 years and older from two districts of Mexico City between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed up until Jan 1, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. Cox regression analysis yielded rate ratios (RRs) for death at ages 35-74 years associated with education and examined, in exploratory analyses, the mediating effects of lifestyle and related risk factors. FINDINGS: Among 143 478 participants aged 35-74 years, there was a strong inverse association of education with premature death. Compared with participants with tertiary education, after adjustment for age and sex, those with no education had about twice the mortality rate (RR 1·84; 95% CI 1·71-1·98), equivalent to approximately 6 years lower life expectancy, with an RR of 1·78 (1·67-1·90) among participants with incomplete primary, 1·62 (1·53-1·72) with complete primary, and 1·34 (1·25-1·42) with secondary education. Education was most strongly associated with death from renal disease and acute diabetic crises (RR 3·65; 95% CI 3·05-4·38 for no education vs tertiary education) and from infectious diseases (2·67; 2·00-3·56), but there was an apparent higher rate of death from all specific causes studied with lower education, with the exception of cancer for which there was little association. Lifestyle factors (ie, smoking, alcohol drinking, and leisure time physical activity) and related physiological correlates (ie, adiposity, diabetes, and blood pressure) accounted for about four-fifths of the association of education with premature mortality. INTERPRETATION: In this Mexican population there were marked educational inequalities in premature adult mortality, which appeared to largely be accounted for by lifestyle and related risk factors. Effective interventions to reduce these risk factors could reduce inequalities and have a major impact on premature mortality. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and the UK Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit.

Sex differences in the influence of type 2 diabetes (T2D)-related genes, parental history of T2D, and obesity on T2D development: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: This study investigated the effect of sex and age at type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis on the influence of T2D-related genes, parental history of T2D, and obesity on T2D development. METHODS: In this case-control study, 1012 T2D cases and 1008 healthy subjects were selected from the Diabetes in Mexico Study database. Participants were stratified by sex and age at T2D diagnosis (early, ≤ 45 years; late, ≥ 46 years). Sixty-nine T2D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms were explored and the percentage contribution (R2) of T2D-related genes, parental history of T2D, and obesity (body mass index [BMI] and waist-hip ratio [WHR]) on T2D development was calculated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: T2D-related genes influenced T2D development most in males who were diagnosed early (R2 = 23.5%; females, R2 = 13.5%; males and females diagnosed late, R2 = 11.9% and R2 = 7.3%, respectively). With an early diagnosis, insulin production-related genes were more influential in males (76.0% of R2) while peripheral insulin resistance-associated genes were more influential in females (52.3% of R2). With a late diagnosis, insulin production-related genes from chromosome region 11p15.5 notably influenced males while peripheral insulin resistance and genes associated with inflammation and other processes notably influenced females. Influence of parental history was higher among those diagnosed early (males, 19.9%; females, 17.5%) versus late (males, 6.4%; females, 5,3%). Unilateral maternal T2D history was more influential than paternal T2D history. BMI influenced T2D development for all, while WHR exclusively influenced males. CONCLUSIONS: The influence of T2D-related genes, maternal T2D history, and fat distribution on T2D development was greater in males than females.

The prevalence of diabetes worldwide is slightly higher in men than in women, particularly in those aged 50 or younger (16.5% for men versus 13.5% for women). This suggests that hormonal differences could be critical in early development of Type 2 diabetes. Some known factors previously associated with T2D, such as genes, parental history of diabetes and obesity, could have a differential influence between both sexes for the development of T2D. We compared these factors between 1008 healthy individual and 1012 TD2 patients. In this comparison, we calculated the percentage of variability of the disease explained by each factor. As expected, the most noticeable differences between men and women were observed in T2D diagnoses before age 46. Genes had a greater effect in men than in women (23.5% vs. 13.5%). While genes involved in insulin production have a greater influence on men, genes involved in peripheric insulin resistance have a greater influence on women. The overall parental history of T2D influences similarly in males (19.9%) and females (17.5%), however, the unilateral genetic influence of the mother was much greater in males than in females. The influence of global and abdominal obesity played a greater role in men than in women. In T2D diagnoses after age of 45, the influence of genes and parental history of diabetes decreases markedly, and the relative influence of global obesity augments. However, while genes linked to insulin resistance and inflammation predominate in females, genes linked to insulin secretion predominate in males.