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1.
Nature ; 627(8004): 564-571, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38418889

RESUMO

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Florestas , Mapeamento Geográfico , Árvores , Modelos Biológicos , Especificidade da Espécie , Árvores/classificação , Árvores/fisiologia , Clima Tropical
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(44): e2306497120, 2023 Oct 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37844215

RESUMO

Despite significant research on the effects of stress on the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, questions remain regarding long-term impacts of large-scale stressors. Leveraging data on exposure to an unanticipated major natural disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, we provide causal evidence of its imprint on hair cortisol levels fourteen years later. Data are drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, a population-representative longitudinal study of tsunami survivors who were living along the coast of Aceh, Indonesia, when the tsunami hit. Annual rounds of data, collected before, the year after and 2 y after the disaster provide detailed information about tsunami exposures and self-reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress. Hair samples collected 14 y after the tsunami from a sample of adult participants provide measures of cortisol levels, integrated over several months. Hair cortisol concentrations are substantially and significantly lower among females who were living, at the time of the tsunami, in communities directly damaged by the tsunami, in comparison with similar females living in other, nearby communities. Differences among males are small and not significant. Cortisol concentrations are lowest among those females living in damaged communities who reported elevated post-traumatic stress symptoms persistently for two years after the tsunami, indicating that the negative effects of exposure were largest for them. Low cortisol is also associated with contemporaneous reports of poor self-rated general and psychosocial health. Taken together, the evidence points to dysregulation in the HPA axis and "burnout" among these females fourteen years after exposure to the disaster.


Assuntos
Esgotamento Psicológico , Sistema Hipotálamo-Hipofisário , Sistema Hipófise-Suprarrenal , Tsunamis , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Hidrocortisona , Sistema Hipotálamo-Hipofisário/fisiologia , Oceano Índico , Estudos Longitudinais , Sistema Hipófise-Suprarrenal/fisiologia , Esgotamento Psicológico/fisiopatologia
3.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 206(4): 440-448, 2022 08 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35537137

RESUMO

Rationale: Ecological studies have shown air pollution associations with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outcomes. However, few cohort studies have been conducted. Objectives: To conduct a cohort study investigating the association between air pollution and COVID-19 severity using individual-level data from the electronic medical record. Methods: This cohort included all individuals who received diagnoses of COVID-19 from Kaiser Permanente Southern California between March 1 and August 31, 2020. One-year and 1-month averaged ambient air pollutant (particulate matter ⩽2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5], NO2, and O3) exposures before COVID-19 diagnosis were estimated on the basis of residential address history. Outcomes included COVID-19-related hospitalizations, intensive respiratory support (IRS), and ICU admissions within 30 days and mortality within 60 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. Covariates included socioeconomic characteristics and comorbidities. Measurements and Main Results: Among 74,915 individuals (mean age, 42.5 years; 54% women; 66% Hispanic), rates of hospitalization, IRS, ICU admission, and mortality were 6.3%, 2.4%, 1.5%, and 1.5%, respectively. Using multipollutant models adjusted for covariates, 1-year PM2.5 and 1-month NO2 average exposures were associated with COVID-19 severity. The odds ratios associated with a 1-SD increase in 1-year PM2.5 (SD, 1.5 µg/m3) were 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.32) for COVID-19-related hospitalization, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.20-1.47) for IRS, and 1.32 (95% CI, 1.16-1.51) for ICU admission; the corresponding odds ratios associated with 1-month NO2 (SD, 3.3 ppb) were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.06-1.17) for hospitalization, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.10-1.27) for IRS, and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.11-1.33) for ICU admission. The hazard ratios for mortality were 1.14 (95% CI, 1.02-1.27) for 1-year PM2.5 and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.98-1.16) for 1-month NO2. No significant interactions with age, sex or ethnicity were observed. Conclusions: Ambient PM2.5 and NO2 exposures may affect COVID-19 severity and mortality.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Poluentes Ambientais , Adulto , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Teste para COVID-19 , California/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Dióxido de Nitrogênio , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/análise
4.
J Dev Econ ; 1632023 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37483867

RESUMO

The impact of exposure to a major unanticipated natural disaster on the evolution of survivors' attitudes toward risk is examined, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in combination with rich population-representative longitudinal survey data spanning the five years after the tsunami. Respondents chose among pairs of hypothetical income streams. Those directly exposed to the tsunami made choices consistent with greater willingness to take on risk relative to those not directly exposed to the tsunami. These differences are short-lived: starting a year later, there is no evidence of differences in willingness to take on risk between the two groups. These conclusions hold for tsunami-related exposures measured at the individual and community level. Apparently, tsunami survivors were inclined to assume greater financial risk in the short-term while rebuilding their lives after the disaster.

5.
Bioinformatics ; 37(4): 514-521, 2021 05 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32915960

RESUMO

MOTIVATION: Associated with genomic features like gene expression, methylation and genotypes, used in statistical modeling of health outcomes, there is a rich set of meta-features like functional annotations, pathway information and knowledge from previous studies, that can be used post hoc to facilitate the interpretation of a model. However, using this meta-feature information a priori rather than post hoc can yield improved prediction performance as well as enhanced model interpretation. RESULTS: We propose a new penalized regression approach that allows a priori integration of external meta-features. The method extends LASSO regression by incorporating individualized penalty parameters for each regression coefficient. The penalty parameters are, in turn, modeled as a log-linear function of the meta-features and are estimated from the data using an approximate empirical Bayes approach. Optimization of the marginal likelihood on which the empirical Bayes estimation is performed using a fast and stable majorization-minimization procedure. Through simulations, we show that the proposed regression with individualized penalties can outperform the standard LASSO in terms of both parameters estimation and prediction performance when the external data is informative. We further demonstrate our approach with applications to gene expression studies of bone density and breast cancer. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The methods have been implemented in the R package xtune freely available for download from https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/xtune/index.html.


Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Genômica , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos
6.
New Phytol ; 234(5): 1664-1677, 2022 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35201608

RESUMO

Tree size shapes forest carbon dynamics and determines how trees interact with their environment, including a changing climate. Here, we conduct the first global analysis of among-site differences in how aboveground biomass stocks and fluxes are distributed with tree size. We analyzed repeat tree censuses from 25 large-scale (4-52 ha) forest plots spanning a broad climatic range over five continents to characterize how aboveground biomass, woody productivity, and woody mortality vary with tree diameter. We examined how the median, dispersion, and skewness of these size-related distributions vary with mean annual temperature and precipitation. In warmer forests, aboveground biomass, woody productivity, and woody mortality were more broadly distributed with respect to tree size. In warmer and wetter forests, aboveground biomass and woody productivity were more right skewed, with a long tail towards large trees. Small trees (1-10 cm diameter) contributed more to productivity and mortality than to biomass, highlighting the importance of including these trees in analyses of forest dynamics. Our findings provide an improved characterization of climate-driven forest differences in the size structure of aboveground biomass and dynamics of that biomass, as well as refined benchmarks for capturing climate influences in vegetation demographic models.


Assuntos
Carbono , Clima Tropical , Biomassa , Temperatura , Madeira
7.
Glob Chang Biol ; 28(9): 2895-2909, 2022 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35080088

RESUMO

The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass (AGB), and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either AGB or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct DCs of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the DC of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure, and function.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Clima Tropical , Biomassa , Demografia , Ecossistema
8.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(2): e1007948, 2021 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33600408

RESUMO

Gene function annotation is important for a variety of downstream analyses of genetic data. But experimental characterization of function remains costly and slow, making computational prediction an important endeavor. Phylogenetic approaches to prediction have been developed, but implementation of a practical Bayesian framework for parameter estimation remains an outstanding challenge. We have developed a computationally efficient model of evolution of gene annotations using phylogenies based on a Bayesian framework using Markov Chain Monte Carlo for parameter estimation. Unlike previous approaches, our method is able to estimate parameters over many different phylogenetic trees and functions. The resulting parameters agree with biological intuition, such as the increased probability of function change following gene duplication. The method performs well on leave-one-out cross-validation, and we further validated some of the predictions in the experimental scientific literature.


Assuntos
Modelos Genéticos , Anotação de Sequência Molecular/métodos , Filogenia , Algoritmos , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Biologia Computacional , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Evolução Molecular , Ontologia Genética/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Funções Verossimilhança , Cadeias de Markov , Camundongos , Modelos Estatísticos , Anotação de Sequência Molecular/estatística & dados numéricos , Método de Monte Carlo , Família Multigênica
9.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(4): e1008853, 2021 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33914731

RESUMO

When Darwin visited the Galapagos archipelago, he observed that, in spite of the islands' physical similarity, members of species that had dispersed to them recently were beginning to diverge from each other. He postulated that these divergences must have resulted primarily from interactions with sets of other species that had also diverged across these otherwise similar islands. By extrapolation, if Darwin is correct, such complex interactions must be driving species divergences across all ecosystems. However, many current general ecological theories that predict observed distributions of species in ecosystems do not take the details of between-species interactions into account. Here we quantify, in sixteen forest diversity plots (FDPs) worldwide, highly significant negative density-dependent (NDD) components of both conspecific and heterospecific between-tree interactions that affect the trees' distributions, growth, recruitment, and mortality. These interactions decline smoothly in significance with increasing physical distance between trees. They also tend to decline in significance with increasing phylogenetic distance between the trees, but each FDP exhibits its own unique pattern of exceptions to this overall decline. Unique patterns of between-species interactions in ecosystems, of the general type that Darwin postulated, are likely to have contributed to the exceptions. We test the power of our null-model method by using a deliberately modified data set, and show that the method easily identifies the modifications. We examine how some of the exceptions, at the Wind River (USA) FDP, reveal new details of a known allelopathic effect of one of the Wind River gymnosperm species. Finally, we explore how similar analyses can be used to investigate details of many types of interactions in these complex ecosystems, and can provide clues to the evolution of these interactions.


Assuntos
Evolução Biológica , Florestas , Árvores , Análise por Conglomerados , Fenômenos Ecológicos e Ambientais , Modelos Biológicos , Filogenia
10.
Prev Med ; 164: 107294, 2022 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36216121

RESUMO

E-cigarettes may help combustible cigarette smokers switch to a less harmful alternative, or may increase the risk of subsequent initiation of cigarettes among non-smokers. Among youth, it is not clear whether both pathways occur equally, or whether one direction is more likely than the other. We used data from a prospective cohort study of youth in Southern California followed twice annually from Fall 2013 (9th grade) to Fall 2015 (11th grade) (N = 1977). A polytomous logistic regression model was used to simultaneously estimate transition rates for initiation of and abstention from e-cigarettes and cigarettes. Use of e-cigarettes was positively associated with initiation of cigarettes (OR = 7.57; 95%CI:[5.32, 10.8]) and negatively associated with cigarette abstention (OR = 0.58; 95%CI:[0.33, 0.99]) in adjusted models; cigarette use was positively associated with e-cigarette initiation (OR = 2.54; 95%CI:[1.45, 4.47]) and negatively associated with e-cigarette abstention (OR = 0.31; 95%CI:[0.17,0.57]). Uni-directional transition from e-cigarettes only to cigarettes only occurred less frequently than expected under independence (OR = 0.33; 95% CI [0.20, 0.55]), whereas simultaneously initiating both products (OR = 9.79; 95%CI:[7.22, 13.3]) and simultaneously abstaining (OR = 2.84; 95%CI:[1.50, 5.37]) were more frequent than expected. E-cigarettes were more strongly associated with subsequent cigarette initiation than the reverse, though both models indicated that use of either product seems to encourage use of the other. Models also indicated that use of either e-cigarettes or cigarettes resulted in reduced abstention of the other product. Findings suggest that prevention efforts for that continue to focus on both e-cigarettes and cigarettes are needed.


Assuntos
Sistemas Eletrônicos de Liberação de Nicotina , Produtos do Tabaco , Adolescente , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Fumar/epidemiologia , Fumantes
11.
Environ Res ; 208: 112758, 2022 05 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35063430

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Air pollution exposure may make people more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. However, previous studies in this area mostly focused on infection before May 2020 and long-term exposure. OBJECTIVE: To assess both long-term and short-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 incidence across four case surges from 03/1/2020 to 02/28/2021. METHODS: The cohort included 4.6 million members from a large integrated health care system in southern California with comprehensive electronic medical records (EMR). COVID-19 cases were identified from EMR. Incidence of COVID-19 was computed at the census tract-level among members. Prior 1-month and 1-year averaged air pollutant levels (PM2.5, NO2, and O3) at the census tract-level were estimated based on hourly and daily air quality data. Data analyses were conducted by each wave: 3/1/2020-5/31/2020, 6/1/202-9/30/2020, 10/1/2020-12/31/2020, and 1/1/2021-2/28/2021 and pooled across waves using meta-analysis. Generalized linear mixed effects models with Poisson distribution and spatial autocorrelation were used with adjustment for meteorological factors and census tract-level social and health characteristics. Results were expressed as relative risk (RR) per 1 standard deviation. RESULTS: The cohort included 446,440 COVID-19 cases covering 4609 census tracts. The pooled RRs (95% CI) of COVID-19 incidence associated with 1-year exposures to PM2.5, NO2, and O3 were 1.11 (1.04, 1.18) per 2.3 µg/m3,1.09 (1.02, 1.17) per 3.2 ppb, and 1.06 (1.00, 1.12) per 5.5 ppb respectively. The corresponding RRs (95% CI) associated with prior 1-month exposures were 1.11 (1.03, 1.20) per 5.2 µg/m3 for PM2.5, 1.09 (1.01, 1.17) per 6.0 ppb for NO2 and 0.96 (0.85, 1.08) per 12.0 ppb for O3. CONCLUSION: Long-term PM2.5 and NO2 exposures were associated with increased risk of COVID-19 incidence across all case surges before February 2021. Short-term PM2.5 and NO2 exposures were also associated. Our findings suggest that air pollution may play a role in increasing the risk of COVID-19 infection.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/toxicidade , Poluição do Ar/análise , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Humanos , Incidência , Material Particulado/análise , Material Particulado/toxicidade , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Bioinformatics ; 36(3): 842-850, 2020 02 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31504184

RESUMO

MOTIVATION: Epidemiologic, clinical and translational studies are increasingly generating multiplatform omics data. Methods that can integrate across multiple high-dimensional data types while accounting for differential patterns are critical for uncovering novel associations and underlying relevant subgroups. RESULTS: We propose an integrative model to estimate latent unknown clusters (LUCID) aiming to both distinguish unique genomic, exposure and informative biomarkers/omic effects while jointly estimating subgroups relevant to the outcome of interest. Simulation studies indicate that we can obtain consistent estimates reflective of the true simulated values, accurately estimate subgroups and recapitulate subgroup-specific effects. We also demonstrate the use of the integrated model for future prediction of risk subgroups and phenotypes. We apply this approach to two real data applications to highlight the integration of genomic, exposure and metabolomic data. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The LUCID method is implemented through the LUCIDus R package available on CRAN (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=LUCIDus). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary materials are available at Bioinformatics online.


Assuntos
Genômica , Software , Biomarcadores , Análise por Conglomerados , Fenótipo
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(13): 3296-3301, 2018 03 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29531048

RESUMO

Longitudinal, individual-specific data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) provide support for the hypothesis that the 2008 to 2010 Great Recession (GR) negatively impacted the health of US adults. Results further advance understanding of the relationship by (i) illuminating hypothesized greater negative impacts in population subgroups exposed to more severe impacts of the GR and (ii) explicitly controlling for confounding by individual differences in age-related changes in health over time. Analyses overcome limitations of prior work by (i) employing individual-level data that avoid concerns about ecological fallacy associated with prior reliance on group-level data, (ii) using four waves of data before the GR to estimate and control for underlying individual-level age-related trends, (iii) focusing on objective, temporally appropriate health outcomes rather than mortality, and (iv) leveraging a diverse cohort to investigate subgroup differences in the GR's impact. Innovative individual fixed-effects modeling controlling for individual-level age-related trajectories yielded substantively important insights: (i) significant elevations post-GR for blood pressure and fasting glucose, especially among those on medication pre-GR, and (ii) reductions in prevalence and intensity of medication use post-GR. Important differences in the effects of the GR are seen across subgroups, with larger effects among younger adults (who are likely still in the labor force) and older homeowners (whose declining home wealth likely reduced financial security, with less scope for recouping losses during their lifetime); least affected were older adults without a college degree (whose greater reliance on Medicare and Social Security likely provided more protection from the recession).


Assuntos
Glicemia/análise , Pressão Sanguínea , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Complicações do Diabetes/economia , Recessão Econômica/estatística & dados numéricos , Emprego/psicologia , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Complicações do Diabetes/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Renda , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
14.
Ecol Lett ; 23(1): 160-171, 2020 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31698546

RESUMO

Among the local processes that determine species diversity in ecological communities, fluctuation-dependent mechanisms that are mediated by temporal variability in the abundances of species populations have received significant attention. Higher temporal variability in the abundances of species populations can increase the strength of temporal niche partitioning but can also increase the risk of species extinctions, such that the net effect on species coexistence is not clear. We quantified this temporal population variability for tree species in 21 large forest plots and found much greater variability for higher latitude plots with fewer tree species. A fitted mechanistic model showed that among the forest plots, the net effect of temporal population variability on tree species coexistence was usually negative, but sometimes positive or negligible. Therefore, our results suggest that temporal variability in the abundances of species populations has no clear negative or positive contribution to the latitudinal gradient in tree species richness.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Árvores , Biota , Características de Residência
15.
Am J Epidemiol ; 188(4): 760-767, 2019 04 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30649161

RESUMO

Gene-environment (G × E) interaction is important for many complex traits. In a case-control study of a disease trait, logistic regression is the standard approach used to model disease as a function of a gene (G), an environmental factor (E), G × E interaction, and adjustment covariates. We propose an alternative model with G as the outcome and show how it provides a unified framework for obtaining results from all of the common G × E tests. These include the 1-degree-of-freedom (df) test of G × E interaction, the 2-df joint test of G and G × E, the case-only and empirical Bayes tests, and several 2-step tests. In the context of this unified model, we propose a novel 3-df test and demonstrate that it provides robust power across a wide range of underlying G × E interaction models. We demonstrate the 3-df test in a genome-wide scan of G × sex interaction for childhood asthma using data from the Children's Health Study (Southern California, 1993-2001). This scan identified a strong G × sex interaction at the phosphodiesterase gene 4D locus (PDE4D), a known asthma-related locus, with a strong effect in males (per-allele odds ratio = 1.70; P = 3.8 × 10-8) and virtually no effect in females. We describe a software program, G×EScan (University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California), which can be used to fit standard and unified models for genome-wide G × E studies.


Assuntos
Interação Gene-Ambiente , Modelos Genéticos , Asma/genética , Teorema de Bayes , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Criança , Nucleotídeo Cíclico Fosfodiesterase do Tipo 4/análise , Feminino , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Humanos , Masculino , Software
16.
Gastroenterology ; 154(8): 2152-2164.e19, 2018 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29458155

RESUMO

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines for initiating colorectal cancer (CRC) screening are based on family history but do not consider lifestyle, environmental, or genetic risk factors. We developed models to determine risk of CRC, based on lifestyle and environmental factors and genetic variants, and to identify an optimal age to begin screening. METHODS: We collected data from 9748 CRC cases and 10,590 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary study, from 1992 through 2005. Half of the participants were used to develop the risk determination model and the other half were used to evaluate the discriminatory accuracy (validation set). Models of CRC risk were created based on family history, 19 lifestyle and environmental factors (E-score), and 63 CRC-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies (G-score). We evaluated the discriminatory accuracy of the models by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values, adjusting for study, age, and endoscopy history for the validation set. We used the models to project the 10-year absolute risk of CRC for a given risk profile and recommend ages to begin screening in comparison to CRC risk for an average individual at 50 years of age, using external population incidence rates for non-Hispanic whites from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program registry. RESULTS: In our models, E-score and G-score each determined risk of CRC with greater accuracy than family history. A model that combined both scores and family history estimated CRC risk with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.64) for men and 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.63) for women; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values based on only family history ranged from 0.53 to 0.54 and those based only E-score or G-score ranged from 0.59 to 0.60. Although screening is recommended to begin at age 50 years for individuals with no family history of CRC, starting ages calculated based on combined E-score and G-score differed by 12 years for men and 14 for women, for individuals with the highest vs the lowest 10% of risk. CONCLUSIONS: We used data from 2 large international consortia to develop CRC risk calculation models that included genetic and environmental factors along with family history. These determine risk of CRC and starting ages for screening with greater accuracy than the family history only model, which is based on the current screening guideline. These scoring systems might serve as a first step toward developing individualized CRC prevention strategies.


Assuntos
Colonoscopia/normas , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/normas , Modelos Biológicos , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Neoplasias Colorretais/genética , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Meio Ambiente , Feminino , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Curva ROC , Medição de Risco/métodos , Fatores Sexuais
17.
Genet Epidemiol ; 41(4): 320-331, 2017 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28393391

RESUMO

With the aim of improving detection of novel single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genetic association studies, we propose a method of including prior biological information in a Bayesian shrinkage model that jointly estimates SNP effects. We assume that the SNP effects follow a normal distribution centered at zero with variance controlled by a shrinkage hyperparameter. We use biological information to define the amount of shrinkage applied on the SNP effects distribution, so that the effects of SNPs with more biological support are less shrunk toward zero, thus being more likely detected. The performance of the method was tested in a simulation study (1,000 datasets, 500 subjects with ∼200 SNPs in 10 linkage disequilibrium (LD) blocks) using a continuous and a binary outcome. It was further tested in an empirical example on body mass index (continuous) and overweight (binary) in a dataset of 1,829 subjects and 2,614 SNPs from 30 blocks. Biological knowledge was retrieved using the bioinformatics tool Dintor, which queried various databases. The joint Bayesian model with inclusion of prior information outperformed the standard analysis: in the simulation study, the mean ranking of the true LD block was 2.8 for the Bayesian model versus 3.6 for the standard analysis of individual SNPs; in the empirical example, the mean ranking of the six true blocks was 8.5 versus 9.3 in the standard analysis. These results suggest that our method is more powerful than the standard analysis. We expect its performance to improve further as more biological information about SNPs becomes available.


Assuntos
Modelos Genéticos , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único/genética , Teorema de Bayes , Índice de Massa Corporal , Simulação por Computador , Estudos de Associação Genética , Humanos , Desequilíbrio de Ligação/genética , Modelos Estatísticos , Respiração
18.
Am J Epidemiol ; 186(7): 771-777, 2017 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28978191

RESUMO

A growing knowledge base of genetic and environmental information has greatly enabled the study of disease risk factors. However, the computational complexity and statistical burden of testing all variants by all environments has required novel study designs and hypothesis-driven approaches. We discuss how incorporating biological knowledge from model organisms, functional genomics, and integrative approaches can empower the discovery of novel gene-environment interactions and discuss specific methodological considerations with each approach. We consider specific examples where the application of these approaches has uncovered effects of gene-environment interactions relevant to drug response and immunity, and we highlight how such improvements enable a greater understanding of the pathogenesis of disease and the realization of precision medicine.


Assuntos
Doença/etiologia , Interação Gene-Ambiente , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla/métodos , Animais , Doença/genética , Genômica , Humanos , Modelos Animais , Análise de Sequência de RNA
19.
Am J Epidemiol ; 186(7): 753-761, 2017 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28978193

RESUMO

Recently, many new approaches, study designs, and statistical and analytical methods have emerged for studying gene-environment interactions (G×Es) in large-scale studies of human populations. There are opportunities in this field, particularly with respect to the incorporation of -omics and next-generation sequencing data and continual improvement in measures of environmental exposures implicated in complex disease outcomes. In a workshop called "Current Challenges and New Opportunities for Gene-Environment Interaction Studies of Complex Diseases," held October 17-18, 2014, by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and the National Cancer Institute in conjunction with the annual American Society of Human Genetics meeting, participants explored new approaches and tools that have been developed in recent years for G×E discovery. This paper highlights current and critical issues and themes in G×E research that need additional consideration, including the improved data analytical methods, environmental exposure assessment, and incorporation of functional data and annotations.


Assuntos
Doença/etiologia , Interação Gene-Ambiente , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla/métodos , Doença/genética , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Sequenciamento de Nucleotídeos em Larga Escala , Humanos , Software
20.
Annu Rev Public Health ; 38: 279-294, 2017 Mar 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28068484

RESUMO

The complexity of the human exposome-the totality of environmental exposures encountered from birth to death-motivates systematic, high-throughput approaches to discover new environmental determinants of disease. In this review, we describe the state of science in analyzing the human exposome and provide recommendations for the public health community to consider in dealing with analytic challenges of exposome-based biomedical research. We describe extant and novel analytic methods needed to associate the exposome with critical health outcomes and contextualize the data-centered challenges by drawing parallels to other research endeavors such as human genomics research. We discuss efforts for training scientists who can bridge public health, genomics, and biomedicine in informatics and statistics. If an exposome data ecosystem is brought to fruition, it will likely play a role as central as genomic science has had in molding the current and new generations of biomedical researchers, computational scientists, and public health research programs.


Assuntos
Pesquisa Biomédica , Biologia Computacional , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Saúde Pública , Ecossistema , Humanos , Fatores de Risco
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