Identification of Social Engagement Indicators Associated With Autism Spectrum Disorder Using a Game-Based Mobile App: Comparative Study of Gaze Fixation and Visual Scanning Methods.

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a widespread neurodevelopmental condition with a range of potential causes and symptoms. Standard diagnostic mechanisms for ASD, which involve lengthy parent questionnaires and clinical observation, often result in long waiting times for results. Recent advances in computer vision and mobile technology hold potential for speeding up the diagnostic process by enabling computational analysis of behavioral and social impairments from home videos. Such techniques can improve objectivity and contribute quantitatively to the diagnostic process. OBJECTIVE: In this work, we evaluate whether home videos collected from a game-based mobile app can be used to provide diagnostic insights into ASD. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study attempting to identify potential social indicators of ASD from mobile phone videos without the use of eye-tracking hardware, manual annotations, and structured scenarios or clinical environments. METHODS: Here, we used a mobile health app to collect over 11 hours of video footage depicting 95 children engaged in gameplay in a natural home environment. We used automated data set annotations to analyze two social indicators that have previously been shown to differ between children with ASD and their neurotypical (NT) peers: (1) gaze fixation patterns, which represent regions of an individual's visual focus and (2) visual scanning methods, which refer to the ways in which individuals scan their surrounding environment. We compared the gaze fixation and visual scanning methods used by children during a 90-second gameplay video to identify statistically significant differences between the 2 cohorts; we then trained a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to determine if gaze indicators could be predictive of ASD. RESULTS: Our results show that gaze fixation patterns differ between the 2 cohorts; specifically, we could identify 1 statistically significant region of fixation (P<.001). In addition, we also demonstrate that there are unique visual scanning patterns that exist for individuals with ASD when compared to NT children (P<.001). A deep learning model trained on coarse gaze fixation annotations demonstrates mild predictive power in identifying ASD. CONCLUSIONS: Ultimately, our study demonstrates that heterogeneous video data sets collected from mobile devices hold potential for quantifying visual patterns and providing insights into ASD. We show the importance of automated labeling techniques in generating large-scale data sets while simultaneously preserving the privacy of participants, and we demonstrate that specific social engagement indicators associated with ASD can be identified and characterized using such data.

Improved detection of disease-associated gut microbes using 16S sequence-based biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Sequencing partial 16S rRNA genes is a cost effective method for quantifying the microbial composition of an environment, such as the human gut. However, downstream analysis relies on binning reads into microbial groups by either considering each unique sequence as a different microbe, querying a database to get taxonomic labels from sequences, or clustering similar sequences together. However, these approaches do not fully capture evolutionary relationships between microbes, limiting the ability to identify differentially abundant groups of microbes between a diseased and control cohort. We present sequence-based biomarkers (SBBs), an aggregation method that groups and aggregates microbes using single variants and combinations of variants within their 16S sequences. We compare SBBs against other existing aggregation methods (OTU clustering and Microphenoor DiTaxa features) in several benchmarking tasks: biomarker discovery via permutation test, biomarker discovery via linear discriminant analysis, and phenotype prediction power. We demonstrate the SBBs perform on-par or better than the state-of-the-art methods in biomarker discovery and phenotype prediction. RESULTS: On two independent datasets, SBBs identify differentially abundant groups of microbes with similar or higher statistical significance than existing methods in both a permutation-test-based analysis and using linear discriminant analysis effect size. . By grouping microbes by SBB, we can identify several differentially abundant microbial groups (FDR <.1) between children with autism and neurotypical controls in a set of 115 discordant siblings. Porphyromonadaceae, Ruminococcaceae, and an unnamed species of Blastocystis were significantly enriched in autism, while Veillonellaceae was significantly depleted. Likewise, aggregating microbes by SBB on a dataset of obese and lean twins, we find several significantly differentially abundant microbial groups (FDR<.1). We observed Megasphaera andSutterellaceae highly enriched in obesity, and Phocaeicola significantly depleted. SBBs also perform on bar with or better than existing aggregation methods as features in a phenotype prediction model, predicting the autism phenotype with an ROC-AUC score of .64 and the obesity phenotype with an ROC-AUC score of .84. CONCLUSIONS: SBBs provide a powerful method for aggregating microbes to perform differential abundance analysis as well as phenotype prediction. Our source code can be freely downloaded from http://github.com/briannachrisman/16s_biomarkers .

Game theoretic centrality: a novel approach to prioritize disease candidate genes by combining biological networks with the Shapley value.

BACKGROUND: Complex human health conditions with etiological heterogeneity like Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) often pose a challenge for traditional genome-wide association study approaches in defining a clear genotype to phenotype model. Coalitional game theory (CGT) is an exciting method that can consider the combinatorial effect of groups of variants working in concert to produce a phenotype. CGT has been applied to associate likely-gene-disrupting variants encoded from whole genome sequence data to ASD; however, this previous approach cannot take into account for prior biological knowledge. Here we extend CGT to incorporate a priori knowledge from biological networks through a game theoretic centrality measure based on Shapley value to rank genes by their relevance-the individual gene's synergistic influence in a gene-to-gene interaction network. Game theoretic centrality extends the notion of Shapley value to the evaluation of a gene's contribution to the overall connectivity of its corresponding node in a biological network. RESULTS: We implemented and applied game theoretic centrality to rank genes on whole genomes from 756 multiplex autism families. Top ranking genes with the highest game theoretic centrality in both the weighted and unweighted approaches were enriched for pathways previously associated with autism, including pathways of the immune system. Four of the selected genes HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-G, and HLA-DRB1-have also been implicated in ASD and further support the link between ASD and the human leukocyte antigen complex. CONCLUSIONS: Game theoretic centrality can prioritize influential, disease-associated genes within biological networks, and assist in the decoding of polygenic associations to complex disorders like autism.

Validity of Online Screening for Autism: Crowdsourcing Study Comparing Paid and Unpaid Diagnostic Tasks.

BACKGROUND: Obtaining a diagnosis of neuropsychiatric disorders such as autism requires long waiting times that can exceed a year and can be prohibitively expensive. Crowdsourcing approaches may provide a scalable alternative that can accelerate general access to care and permit underserved populations to obtain an accurate diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to perform a series of studies to explore whether paid crowd workers on Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) and citizen crowd workers on a public website shared on social media can provide accurate online detection of autism, conducted via crowdsourced ratings of short home video clips. METHODS: Three online studies were performed: (1) a paid crowdsourcing task on AMT (N=54) where crowd workers were asked to classify 10 short video clips of children as "Autism" or "Not autism," (2) a more complex paid crowdsourcing task (N=27) with only those raters who correctly rated ≥8 of the 10 videos during the first study, and (3) a public unpaid study (N=115) identical to the first study. RESULTS: For Study 1, the mean score of the participants who completed all questions was 7.50/10 (SD 1.46). When only analyzing the workers who scored ≥8/10 (n=27/54), there was a weak negative correlation between the time spent rating the videos and the sensitivity (ρ=-0.44, P=.02). For Study 2, the mean score of the participants rating new videos was 6.76/10 (SD 0.59). The average deviation between the crowdsourced answers and gold standard ratings provided by two expert clinical research coordinators was 0.56, with an SD of 0.51 (maximum possible SD is 3). All paid crowd workers who scored 8/10 in Study 1 either expressed enjoyment in performing the task in Study 2 or provided no negative comments. For Study 3, the mean score of the participants who completed all questions was 6.67/10 (SD 1.61). There were weak correlations between age and score (r=0.22, P=.014), age and sensitivity (r=-0.19, P=.04), number of family members with autism and sensitivity (r=-0.195, P=.04), and number of family members with autism and precision (r=-0.203, P=.03). A two-tailed t test between the scores of the paid workers in Study 1 and the unpaid workers in Study 3 showed a significant difference (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Many paid crowd workers on AMT enjoyed answering screening questions from videos, suggesting higher intrinsic motivation to make quality assessments. Paid crowdsourcing provides promising screening assessments of pediatric autism with an average deviation <20% from professional gold standard raters, which is potentially a clinically informative estimate for parents. Parents of children with autism likely overfit their intuition to their own affected child. This work provides preliminary demographic data on raters who may have higher ability to recognize and measure features of autism across its wide range of phenotypic manifestations.

Addendum to the Acknowledgements: Validity of Online Screening for Autism: Crowdsourcing Study Comparing Paid and Unpaid Diagnostic Tasks.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/13668.].

Cross-disorder comparative analysis of comorbid conditions reveals novel autism candidate genes.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have highlighted the elevated degree of comorbidity associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). These comorbid conditions may add further impairments to individuals with autism and are substantially more prevalent compared to neurotypical populations. These high rates of comorbidity are not surprising taking into account the overlap of symptoms that ASD shares with other pathologies. From a research perspective, this suggests common molecular mechanisms involved in these conditions. Therefore, identifying crucial genes in the overlap between ASD and these comorbid disorders may help unravel the common biological processes involved and, ultimately, shed some light in the understanding of autism etiology. RESULTS: In this work, we used a two-fold systems biology approach specially focused on biological processes and gene networks to conduct a comparative analysis of autism with 31 frequently comorbid disorders in order to define a multi-disorder subcomponent of ASD and predict new genes of potential relevance to ASD etiology. We validated our predictions by determining the significance of our candidate genes in high throughput transcriptome expression profiling studies. Using prior knowledge of disease-related biological processes and the interaction networks of the disorders related to autism, we identified a set of 19 genes not previously linked to ASD that were significantly differentially regulated in individuals with autism. In addition, these genes were of potential etiologic relevance to autism, given their enriched roles in neurological processes crucial for optimal brain development and function, learning and memory, cognition and social behavior. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our approach represents a novel perspective of autism from the point of view of related comorbid disorders and proposes a model by which prior knowledge of interaction networks may enlighten and focus the genome-wide search for autism candidate genes to better define the genetic heterogeneity of ASD.

Session Introduction: Graph Representations and Algorithms in Biomedicine.

The following sections are included: Introduction, Understanding and Predicting Molecular Networks, Understanding and Predicting Molecular Networks, Making Use of Family Structure, Applying Traditional Graph Algorithms to Novel Tasks, Representing Uncertainty in Networks, Conclusion, References.

Improved Digital Therapy for Developmental Pediatrics Using Domain-Specific Artificial Intelligence: Machine Learning Study.

BACKGROUND: Automated emotion classification could aid those who struggle to recognize emotions, including children with developmental behavioral conditions such as autism. However, most computer vision emotion recognition models are trained on adult emotion and therefore underperform when applied to child faces. OBJECTIVE: We designed a strategy to gamify the collection and labeling of child emotion-enriched images to boost the performance of automatic child emotion recognition models to a level closer to what will be needed for digital health care approaches. METHODS: We leveraged our prototype therapeutic smartphone game, GuessWhat, which was designed in large part for children with developmental and behavioral conditions, to gamify the secure collection of video data of children expressing a variety of emotions prompted by the game. Independently, we created a secure web interface to gamify the human labeling effort, called HollywoodSquares, tailored for use by any qualified labeler. We gathered and labeled 2155 videos, 39,968 emotion frames, and 106,001 labels on all images. With this drastically expanded pediatric emotion-centric database (>30 times larger than existing public pediatric emotion data sets), we trained a convolutional neural network (CNN) computer vision classifier of happy, sad, surprised, fearful, angry, disgust, and neutral expressions evoked by children. RESULTS: The classifier achieved a 66.9% balanced accuracy and 67.4% F1-score on the entirety of the Child Affective Facial Expression (CAFE) as well as a 79.1% balanced accuracy and 78% F1-score on CAFE Subset A, a subset containing at least 60% human agreement on emotions labels. This performance is at least 10% higher than all previously developed classifiers evaluated against CAFE, the best of which reached a 56% balanced accuracy even when combining "anger" and "disgust" into a single class. CONCLUSIONS: This work validates that mobile games designed for pediatric therapies can generate high volumes of domain-relevant data sets to train state-of-the-art classifiers to perform tasks helpful to precision health efforts.

Estimating sequencing error rates using families.

BACKGROUND: As next-generation sequencing technologies make their way into the clinic, knowledge of their error rates is essential if they are to be used to guide patient care. However, sequencing platforms and variant-calling pipelines are continuously evolving, making it difficult to accurately quantify error rates for the particular combination of assay and software parameters used on each sample. Family data provide a unique opportunity for estimating sequencing error rates since it allows us to observe a fraction of sequencing errors as Mendelian errors in the family, which we can then use to produce genome-wide error estimates for each sample. RESULTS: We introduce a method that uses Mendelian errors in sequencing data to make highly granular per-sample estimates of precision and recall for any set of variant calls, regardless of sequencing platform or calling methodology. We validate the accuracy of our estimates using monozygotic twins, and we use a set of monozygotic quadruplets to show that our predictions closely match the consensus method. We demonstrate our method's versatility by estimating sequencing error rates for whole genome sequencing, whole exome sequencing, and microarray datasets, and we highlight its sensitivity by quantifying performance increases between different versions of the GATK variant-calling pipeline. We then use our method to demonstrate that: 1) Sequencing error rates between samples in the same dataset can vary by over an order of magnitude. 2) Variant calling performance decreases substantially in low-complexity regions of the genome. 3) Variant calling performance in whole exome sequencing data decreases with distance from the nearest target region. 4) Variant calls from lymphoblastoid cell lines can be as accurate as those from whole blood. 5) Whole-genome sequencing can attain microarray-level precision and recall at disease-associated SNV sites. CONCLUSION: Genotype datasets from families are powerful resources that can be used to make fine-grained estimates of sequencing error for any sequencing platform and variant-calling methodology.

Indels in SARS-CoV-2 occur at template-switching hotspots.

The evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 have been carefully monitored since the COVID-19 pandemic began in December 2019. However, analysis has focused primarily on single nucleotide polymorphisms and largely ignored the role of insertions and deletions (indels) as well as recombination in SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Using sequences from the GISAID database, we catalogue over 100 insertions and deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 consensus sequences. We hypothesize that these indels are artifacts of recombination events between SARS-CoV-2 replicates whereby RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) re-associates with a homologous template at a different loci ("imperfect homologous recombination"). We provide several independent pieces of evidence that suggest this. (1) The indels from the GISAID consensus sequences are clustered at specific regions of the genome. (2) These regions are also enriched for 5' and 3' breakpoints in the transcription regulatory site (TRS) independent transcriptome, presumably sites of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) template-switching. (3) Within raw reads, these indel hotspots have cases of both high intra-host heterogeneity and intra-host homogeneity, suggesting that these indels are both consequences of de novo recombination events within a host and artifacts of previous recombination. We briefly analyze the indels in the context of RNA secondary structure, noting that indels preferentially occur in "arms" and loop structures of the predicted folded RNA, suggesting that secondary structure may be a mechanism for TRS-independent template-switching in SARS-CoV-2 or other coronaviruses. These insights into the relationship between structural variation and recombination in SARS-CoV-2 can improve our reconstructions of the SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary history as well as our understanding of the process of RdRp template-switching in RNA viruses.

A maximum flow-based network approach for identification of stable noncoding biomarkers associated with the multigenic neurological condition, autism.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning approaches for predicting disease risk from high-dimensional whole genome sequence (WGS) data often result in unstable models that can be difficult to interpret, limiting the identification of putative sets of biomarkers. Here, we design and validate a graph-based methodology based on maximum flow, which leverages the presence of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to identify stable sets of variants associated with complex multigenic disorders. RESULTS: We apply our method to a previously published logistic regression model trained to identify variants in simple repeat sequences associated with autism spectrum disorder (ASD); this L1-regularized model exhibits high predictive accuracy yet demonstrates great variability in the features selected from over 230,000 possible variants. In order to improve model stability, we extract the variants assigned non-zero weights in each of 5 cross-validation folds and then assemble the five sets of features into a flow network subject to LD constraints. The maximum flow formulation allowed us to identify 55 variants, which we show to be more stable than the features identified by the original classifier. CONCLUSION: Our method allows for the creation of machine learning models that can identify predictive variants. Our results help pave the way towards biomarker-based diagnosis methods for complex genetic disorders.

Selection of trustworthy crowd workers for telemedical diagnosis of pediatric autism spectrum disorder.

Crowd-powered telemedicine has the potential to revolutionize healthcare, especially during times that require remote access to care. However, sharing private health data with strangers from around the world is not compatible with data privacy standards, requiring a stringent filtration process to recruit reliable and trustworthy workers who can go through the proper training and security steps. The key challenge, then, is to identify capable, trustworthy, and reliable workers through high-fidelity evaluation tasks without exposing any sensitive patient data during the evaluation process. We contribute a set of experimentally validated metrics for assessing the trustworthiness and reliability of crowd workers tasked with providing behavioral feature tags to unstructured videos of children with autism and matched neurotypical controls. The workers are blinded to diagnosis and blinded to the goal of using the features to diagnose autism. These behavioral labels are fed as input to a previously validated binary logistic regression classifier for detecting autism cases using categorical feature vectors. While the metrics do not incorporate any ground truth labels of child diagnosis, linear regression using the 3 correlative metrics as input can predict the mean probability of the correct class of each worker with a mean average error of 7.51% for performance on the same set of videos and 10.93% for performance on a distinct balanced video set with different children. These results indicate that crowd workers can be recruited for performance based largely on behavioral metrics on a crowdsourced task, enabling an affordable way to filter crowd workforces into a trustworthy and reliable diagnostic workforce.

Crowdsourced privacy-preserved feature tagging of short home videos for machine learning ASD detection.

Standard medical diagnosis of mental health conditions requires licensed experts who are increasingly outnumbered by those at risk, limiting reach. We test the hypothesis that a trustworthy crowd of non-experts can efficiently annotate behavioral features needed for accurate machine learning detection of the common childhood developmental disorder Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) for children under 8 years old. We implement a novel process for identifying and certifying a trustworthy distributed workforce for video feature extraction, selecting a workforce of 102 workers from a pool of 1,107. Two previously validated ASD logistic regression classifiers, evaluated against parent-reported diagnoses, were used to assess the accuracy of the trusted crowd's ratings of unstructured home videos. A representative balanced sample (N = 50 videos) of videos were evaluated with and without face box and pitch shift privacy alterations, with AUROC and AUPRC scores > 0.98. With both privacy-preserving modifications, sensitivity is preserved (96.0%) while maintaining specificity (80.0%) and accuracy (88.0%) at levels comparable to prior classification methods without alterations. We find that machine learning classification from features extracted by a certified nonexpert crowd achieves high performance for ASD detection from natural home videos of the child at risk and maintains high sensitivity when privacy-preserving mechanisms are applied. These results suggest that privacy-safeguarded crowdsourced analysis of short home videos can help enable rapid and mobile machine-learning detection of developmental delays in children.

Feature replacement methods enable reliable home video analysis for machine learning detection of autism.

Autism Spectrum Disorder is a neuropsychiatric condition affecting 53 million children worldwide and for which early diagnosis is critical to the outcome of behavior therapies. Machine learning applied to features manually extracted from readily accessible videos (e.g., from smartphones) has the potential to scale this diagnostic process. However, nearly unavoidable variability in video quality can lead to missing features that degrade algorithm performance. To manage this uncertainty, we evaluated the impact of missing values and feature imputation methods on two previously published autism detection classifiers, trained on standard-of-care instrument scoresheets and tested on ratings of 140 children videos from YouTube. We compare the baseline method of listwise deletion to classic univariate and multivariate techniques. We also introduce a feature replacement method that, based on a score, selects a feature from an expanded dataset to fill-in the missing value. The replacement feature selected can be identical for all records (general) or automatically adjusted to the record considered (dynamic). Our results show that general and dynamic feature replacement methods achieve a higher performance than classic univariate and multivariate methods, supporting the hypothesis that algorithmic management can maintain the fidelity of video-based diagnostics in the face of missing values and variable video quality.

Precision Telemedicine through Crowdsourced Machine Learning: Testing Variability of Crowd Workers for Video-Based Autism Feature Recognition.

Mobilized telemedicine is becoming a key, and even necessary, facet of both precision health and precision medicine. In this study, we evaluate the capability and potential of a crowd of virtual workers-defined as vetted members of popular crowdsourcing platforms-to aid in the task of diagnosing autism. We evaluate workers when crowdsourcing the task of providing categorical ordinal behavioral ratings to unstructured public YouTube videos of children with autism and neurotypical controls. To evaluate emerging patterns that are consistent across independent crowds, we target workers from distinct geographic loci on two crowdsourcing platforms: an international group of workers on Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) (N = 15) and Microworkers from Bangladesh (N = 56), Kenya (N = 23), and the Philippines (N = 25). We feed worker responses as input to a validated diagnostic machine learning classifier trained on clinician-filled electronic health records. We find that regardless of crowd platform or targeted country, workers vary in the average confidence of the correct diagnosis predicted by the classifier. The best worker responses produce a mean probability of the correct class above 80% and over one standard deviation above 50%, accuracy and variability on par with experts according to prior studies. There is a weak correlation between mean time spent on task and mean performance (r = 0.358, p = 0.005). These results demonstrate that while the crowd can produce accurate diagnoses, there are intrinsic differences in crowdworker ability to rate behavioral features. We propose a novel strategy for recruitment of crowdsourced workers to ensure high quality diagnostic evaluations of autism, and potentially many other pediatric behavioral health conditions. Our approach represents a viable step in the direction of crowd-based approaches for more scalable and affordable precision medicine.

Data-Driven Diagnostics and the Potential of Mobile Artificial Intelligence for Digital Therapeutic Phenotyping in Computational Psychiatry.

Data science and digital technologies have the potential to transform diagnostic classification. Digital technologies enable the collection of big data, and advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence enable scalable, rapid, and automated classification of medical conditions. In this review, we summarize and categorize various data-driven methods for diagnostic classification. In particular, we focus on autism as an example of a challenging disorder due to its highly heterogeneous nature. We begin by describing the frontier of data science methods for the neuropsychiatry of autism. We discuss early signs of autism as defined by existing pen-and-paper-based diagnostic instruments and describe data-driven feature selection techniques for determining the behaviors that are most salient for distinguishing children with autism from neurologically typical children. We then describe data-driven detection techniques, particularly computer vision and eye tracking, that provide a means of quantifying behavioral differences between cases and controls. We also describe methods of preserving the privacy of collected videos and prior efforts of incorporating humans in the diagnostic loop. Finally, we summarize existing digital therapeutic interventions that allow for data capture and longitudinal outcome tracking as the diagnosis moves along a positive trajectory. Digital phenotyping of autism is paving the way for quantitative psychiatry more broadly and will set the stage for more scalable, accessible, and precise diagnostic techniques in the field.

Feature Selection and Dimension Reduction of Social Autism Data.

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a complex neuropsychiatric condition with a highly heterogeneous phenotype. Following the work of Duda et al., which uses a reduced feature set from the Social Responsiveness Scale, Second Edition (SRS) to distinguish ASD from ADHD, we performed item-level question selection on answers to the SRS to determine whether ASD can be distinguished from non-ASD using a similarly small subset of questions. To explore feature redundancies between the SRS questions, we performed filter, wrapper, and embedded feature selection analyses. To explore the linearity of the SRS-related ASD phenotype, we then compressed the 65-question SRS into low-dimension representations using PCA, t-SNE, and a denoising autoencoder. We measured the performance of a multilayer perceptron (MLP) classifier with the top-ranking questions as input. Classification using only the top-rated question resulted in an AUC of over 92% for SRS-derived diagnoses and an AUC of over 83% for dataset-specific diagnoses. High redundancy of features have implications towards replacing the social behaviors that are targeted in behavioral diagnostics and interventions, where digital quantification of certain features may be obfuscated due to privacy concerns. We similarly evaluated the performance of an MLP classifier trained on the low-dimension representations of the SRS, finding that the denoising autoencoder achieved slightly higher performance than the PCA and t-SNE representations.

Outgroup Machine Learning Approach Identifies Single Nucleotide Variants in Noncoding DNA Associated with Autism Spectrum Disorder.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a heritable neurodevelopmental disorder affecting 1 in 59 children. While noncoding genetic variation has been shown to play a major role in many complex disorders, the contribution of these regions to ASD susceptibility remains unclear. Genetic analyses of ASD typically use unaffected family members as controls; however, we hypothesize that this method does not effectively elevate variant signal in the noncoding region due to family members having subclinical phenotypes arising from common genetic mechanisms. In this study, we use a separate, unrelated outgroup of individuals with progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP), a neurodegenerative condition with no known etiological overlap with ASD, as a control population. We use whole genome sequencing data from a large cohort of 2182 children with ASD and 379 controls with PSP, sequenced at the same facility with the same machines and variant calling pipeline, in order to investigate the role of noncoding variation in the ASD phenotype. We analyze seven major types of noncoding variants: microRNAs, human accelerated regions, hypersensitive sites, transcription factor binding sites, DNA repeat sequences, simple repeat sequences, and CpG islands. After identifying and removing batch effects between the two groups, we trained an ℓ1-regularized logistic regression classifier to predict ASD status from each set of variants. The classifier trained on simple repeat sequences performed well on a held-out test set (AUC-ROC = 0.960); this classifier was also able to differentiate ASD cases from controls when applied to a completely independent dataset (AUC-ROC = 0.960). This suggests that variation in simple repeat regions is predictive of the ASD phenotype and may contribute to ASD risk. Our results show the importance of the noncoding region and the utility of independent control groups in effectively linking genetic variation to disease phenotype for complex disorders.

Coalitional Game Theory Facilitates Identification of Non-Coding Variants Associated With Autism.

Studies on autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have amassed substantial evidence for the role of genetics in the disease's phenotypic manifestation. A large number of coding and non-coding variants with low penetrance likely act in a combinatorial manner to explain the variable forms of ASD. However, many of these combined interactions, both additive and epistatic, remain undefined. Coalitional game theory (CGT) is an approach that seeks to identify players (individual genetic variants or genes) who tend to improve the performance-association to a disease phenotype of interest-of any coalition (subset of co-occurring genetic variants) they join. This method has been previously applied to boost biologically informative signal from gene expression data and exome sequencing data but remains to be explored in the context of cooperativity among non-coding genomic regions. We describe our extension of previous work, highlighting non-coding chromosomal regions relevant to ASD using CGT on alteration data of 4595 fully sequenced genomes from 756 multiplex families. Genomes were encoded into binary matrices for three types of non-coding regions previously implicated in ASD and separated into ASD (case) and unaffected (control) samples. A player metric, the Shapley value, enabled determination of individual variant contributions in both sets of cohorts. A total of 30 non-coding positions were found to have significantly elevated player scores and likely represent significant contributors to the genetic coordination underlying ASD. Cross-study analyses revealed that a subset of mutated non-coding regions (all of which are in human accelerated regions (HARs)) and related genes are involved in biological pathways or behavioral outcomes known to be affected in autism, suggesting the importance of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within HARs in ASD. These findings support the use of CGT in identifying hidden yet influential non-coding players from large-scale genomic data, to better understand the precise underpinnings of complex neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism.