Developing machine learning models to predict primary graft dysfunction after lung transplantation.

Primary graft dysfunction (PGD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the first 30 days after lung transplantation. Risk factors for the development of PGD include donor and recipient characteristics, but how multiple variables interact to impact the development of PGD and how clinicians should consider these in making decisions about donor acceptance remain unclear. This was a single-center retrospective cohort study to develop and evaluate machine learning pipelines to predict the development of PGD grade 3 within the first 72 hours of transplantation using donor and recipient variables that are known at the time of donor offer acceptance. Among 576 bilateral lung recipients, 173 (30%) developed PGD grade 3. The cohort underwent a 75% to 25% train-test split, and lasso regression was used to identify 11 variables for model development. A K-nearest neighbor's model showing the best calibration and performance with relatively small confidence intervals was selected as the final predictive model with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.65. Machine learning models can predict the risk for development of PGD grade 3 based on data available at the time of donor offer acceptance. This may improve donor-recipient matching and donor utilization in the future.

"Horses for courses" computed tomography or predicted total lung capacity for size matching in lung transplantation.

Size-matching donors to recipients in lung transplantation continues to be a clinical challenge. Predicted total lung capacity equations, or more simply, donor and recipient heights, while widely used, are imprecise and may not be representative of the pool of donors and recipients. These inherent limitations may result in size discrepancies. The advent of easily accessible software and the widespread availability of computed tomography (CT) imaging in donor assessments have made it possible to directly measure lung volumes in donors and recipients. As a result, there is a growing interest in adopting personalized CT volumetry as an alternative. This article explores both methods and underscores the potential benefits and precision offered by CT.

Validation of a novel donor lung scoring system based on the updated lung Composite Allocation Score.

Lung transplantation (LTx) continues to have lower rates of long-term graft survival compared with other organs. Additionally, lung utilization rates from brain-dead donors remain substantially lower compared with other solid organs, despite a growing need for LTx and the significant risk of waitlist mortality. This study aims to examine the effects of using a combination of the recently described novel lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score and the newly adopted recipient lung Composite Allocation Score (CAS) to guide transplantation. We performed a review of nearly 18 000 adult primary lung transplants from 2015-2022 across the US with retroactive calculations of the CAS value. The medium-CAS group (29.6-34.5) had superior 1-year posttransplant survival. Importantly, the combination of high-CAS (> 34.5) recipients with low LUNDON score (≤ 40) donors had the worst survival at 1 year compared with any other combination. Additionally, we constructed a model that predicts 1-year and 3-year survival using the LUNDON acceptability score and CAS values. These results suggest that caution should be exercised when using marginally acceptable donor lungs in high-priority recipients. The use of the LUNDON score with CAS value can potentially guide clinical decision-making for optimal donor-recipient matches for LTx.

Quantitative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR and Bronchoalveolar Cytokine Concentrations Redefine the COVID-19 Phenotypes in Critically Ill Patients.

RATIONALE: Recent studies suggest that both hypo- and hyperinflammatory acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) phenotypes characterize severe COVID-19-related pneumonia. The role of lung Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load in contributing to these phenotypes remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: To redefine COVID-19 ARDS phenotypes when considering quantitative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR in the bronchoalveolar lavage of intubated patients. To compare the relevance of deep respiratory samples versus plasma in linking the immune response and the quantitative viral loads. METHODS: Eligible subjects were adults diagnosed with COVID-19 ARDS who required mechanical ventilation and underwent bronchoscopy. We recorded the immune response in the bronchoalveolar lavage and plasma and the quantitative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR in the bronchoalveolar lavage. Hierarchical clustering on principal components was applied separately on the 2 compartments' datasets. Baseline characteristics were compared between clusters. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Twenty subjects were enrolled between August 2020 and March 2021. Subjects underwent bronchoscopy on average 3.6 days after intubation. All subjects were treated with dexamethasone prior to bronchoscopy, 11 of 20 (55.6%) received remdesivir and 1 of 20 (5%) received tocilizumab. Adding viral load information to the classic 2-cluster model of ARDS revealed a new cluster characterized by hypoinflammatory responses and high viral load in 23.1% of the cohort. Hyperinflammatory ARDS was noted in 15.4% of subjects. Bronchoalveolar lavage clusters were more stable compared to plasma. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a unique group of critically ill subjects with COVID-19 ARDS who exhibit hypoinflammatory responses but high viral loads in the lower airways. These clusters may warrant different treatment approaches to improve clinical outcomes.

Development and validation of the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score for pulmonary transplantation.

There is a chronic shortage of donor lungs for pulmonary transplantation due, in part, to low lung utilization rates in the United States. We performed a retrospective cohort study using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients database (2006-2019) and developed the lung donor (LUNDON) acceptability score. A total of 83 219 brain-dead donors were included and were randomly divided into derivation (n = 58 314, 70%) and validation (n = 24 905, 30%) cohorts. The overall lung acceptance was 27.3% (n = 22 767). Donor factors associated with the lung acceptance were age, maximum creatinine, ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen, mechanism of death by asphyxiation or drowning, history of cigarette use (≥20 pack-years), history of myocardial infarction, chest x-ray appearance, bloodstream infection, and the occurrence of cardiac arrest after brain death. The prediction model had high discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.891; 95% confidence interval, 0.886-0.895) in the validation cohort. We developed a web-based, user-friendly tool (available at https://sites.wustl.edu/lundon) that provides the predicted probability of donor lung acceptance. LUNDON score was also associated with recipient survival in patients with high lung allocation scores. In conclusion, the multivariable LUNDON score uses readily available donor characteristics to reliably predict lung acceptability. Widespread adoption of this model may standardize lung donor evaluation and improve lung utilization rates.

Comprehensive Immunologic Evaluation of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Samples from Human Patients with Moderate and Severe Seasonal Influenza and Severe COVID-19.

Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) or seasonal influenza may lead to respiratory failure requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation. The pathophysiology of this respiratory failure is attributed to local immune dysregulation, but how the immune response to viral infection in the lower airways of the human lung differs between individuals with respiratory failure and those without is not well understood. We used quantitative multiparameter flow cytometry and multiplex cytokine assays to evaluate matched blood and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples from control human subjects, subjects with symptomatic seasonal influenza who did not have respiratory failure, and subjects with severe seasonal influenza or SARS-CoV-2 infection with respiratory failure. We find that severe cases are associated with an influx of nonclassical monocytes, activated T cells, and plasmablast B cells into the lower airways. Cytokine concentrations were not elevated in the lower airways of moderate influenza patients compared with controls; however, 28 of 35 measured cytokines were significantly elevated in severe influenza, severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, or both. We noted the largest elevations in IL-6, IP-10, MCP-1, and IL-8. IL-1 family cytokines and RANTES were higher in severe influenza infection than severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Interestingly, only the concentration of IP-10-correlated between blood and BAL during severe infection. Our results demonstrate inflammatory immune dysregulation in the lower airways during severe viral pneumonia that is distinct from lower airway responses seen in human patients with symptomatic, but not severe, illness and suggest that measurement of blood IP-10 concentration may predict this unique dysregulation.

A pilot randomized controlled trial of de novo belatacept-based immunosuppression following anti-thymocyte globulin induction in lung transplantation.

The development of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) after lung transplantation is common and results in adverse outcomes. In kidney transplantation, Belatacept has been associated with a lower incidence of DSA, but experience with Belatacept in lung transplantation is limited. We conducted a two-center pilot randomized controlled trial of de novo immunosuppression with Belatacept after lung transplantation to assess the feasibility of conducting a pivotal trial. Twenty-seven participants were randomized to Control (Tacrolimus, Mycophenolate Mofetil, and prednisone, n = 14) or Belatacept-based immunosuppression (Tacrolimus, Belatacept, and prednisone until day 89 followed by Belatacept, Mycophenolate Mofetil, and prednisone, n = 13). All participants were treated with rabbit anti-thymocyte globulin for induction immunosuppression. We permanently stopped randomization and treatment with Belatacept after three participants in the Belatacept arm died compared to none in the Control arm. Subsequently, two additional participants in the Belatacept arm died for a total of five deaths compared to none in the Control arm (log rank p = .016). We did not detect a significant difference in DSA development, acute cellular rejection, or infection between the two groups. We conclude that the investigational regimen used in this study is associated with increased mortality after lung transplantation.

Racial and Ethnic Minorities Have a Lower Prevalence of Airflow Obstruction than Non-Hispanic Whites.

Racial and ethnic disparities in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are not well-studied. Our objective was to examine differences in limited COPD-related outcomes between three minority groups-African Americans (AAs), Hispanics, and American Indians (AIs) versus non-Hispanic Whites (NHWs), as the referent group, in separate cohorts. Separate cross-sectional evaluations were performed of three US-based cohorts of subjects at risk for COPD: COPDGene Study with 6,884 NHW and 3,416 AA smokers; Lovelace Smokers' Cohort with 1,598 NHW and 378 Hispanic smokers; and Mining Dust Exposure in the United States Cohort with 2,115 NHW, 2,682 Hispanic, and 2,467 AI miners. Prebronchodilator spirometry tests were performed at baseline visits using standard criteria. The primary outcome was the prevalence of airflow obstruction. Secondary outcomes were self-reported physician diagnosis of COPD, chronic bronchitis, and modified Medical Research Council dyspnea score. All minority groups had a lower prevalence of airflow obstruction than NHWs (adjusted ORs varied from 0.29 in AIs to 0.85 in AAs; p < 0.01 for all analyses). AAs had a lower prevalence of chronic bronchitis than NHWs. In our study, all minority groups had a lower prevalence of airflow obstruction but a greater level of self-reported dyspnea than NHWs, and covariates did not explain this association. A better understanding of racial and ethnic differences in smoking-related and occupational airflow obstruction may improve prevention and therapeutic strategies.

Different-team procurements: A potential solution for the unintended consequences of change in lung allocation policy.

The new lung allocation policy has led to an increase in distant donors and consequently enhanced logistical burden of procuring organs. Though early single-center studies noted similar outcomes between same-team transplantation (ST, procuring team from transplanting center) and different-team transplantation (DT, procuring team from different center), the efficacy of DT in the contemporary era remains unclear. In this study, we evaluated the trend of DT, rate of transplanting both donor lungs, 1-year graft survival, and risk of Grade 3 primary graft dysfunction (PGD) using the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipient (SRTR) database from 2006 to 2018. A total of 21619 patients (DT 2085, 9.7%) with 19837 donors were included. Utilization of DT decreased from 15.9% in 2006 to 8.5% in 2018. Proportions of two-lung donors were similar between the groups, and DT had similar 1-year graft survival as ST for both double (DT, HR 1.108, 95% CI 0.894-1.374) and single lung transplants (DT, HR 1.094, 95% CI 0.931-1.286). Risk of Grade 3 PGD was also similar between ST and DT. Given our results, expanding DT may be a feasible option for improving lung procurement efficiency in the current era, particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and the Optimal Timing of Lung Transplantation.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) accounts for the largest proportion of respiratory deaths worldwide and was historically the leading indication for lung transplantation. The success of lung transplantation procedures is measured as survival benefit, calculated as survival with transplantation minus predicted survival without transplantation. In chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, it is difficult to show a clear and consistent survival benefit. Increasing knowledge of the risk factors, phenotypical heterogeneity, systemic manifestations, and their management helps improve our ability to select candidates and list those that will benefit the most from the procedure.

Early Endotyping: A Chance for Intervention in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a syndrome that comprises several lung pathologies, but subphenotyping the various disease subtypes has been difficult. One reason may be that current efforts focused on studying COPD once it has occurred do not allow tracing back to the different origins of disease. This perspective proposes that emphysema originates when susceptible airway, endothelial, and/or hematopoietic cells are exposed to environmental toxins such as cigarette smoke, biomass fuel, or traffic emissions. These susceptible cell types may initiate distinct pathobiological mechanisms ("COPD endotypes") that ultimately manifest the emphysematous destruction of the lung. On the basis of evidence from the "airway" endotype, we suggest that grading these endotypes by severity may allow better diagnosis of disease at early stages when intervention can be designed on the basis of the mechanisms involved. Therefore, genomic, proteomic, and metabolomic studies on at-risk patients will be important in the identification of biomarkers that help designate each endotype. Together with understanding of the involved molecular pathways that lead to disease manifestation, these efforts may lead to development of intervention strategies.

Grading Severity of Productive Cough Based on Symptoms and Airflow Obstruction.

The binary approach to the diagnosis of Chronic Bronchitis (CB) is a major barrier to the study of the disease. We investigated whether severity of productive cough can be graded using symptoms and presence of fixed airflow obstruction (FAO), and whether the severity correlates with health status, exposures injurious to the lung, biomarkers of inflammation, and measures of airway wall thickening. Findings from a cross-sectional sample of 1,422 participants from the Lovelace Smokers Cohort (LSC) were validated in 4,488 participants from the COPDGene cohort (COPDGene). Health status was based on the St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire, and Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey. Circulating CC16 levels were quantified by ELISA (LSC), and airway wall thickening was measured using computed tomography (COPDGene). FAO was defined as postbronchodilator FEV1/FVC <0.7. The presence and duration of productive cough and presence of FAO or wheeze were graded into Healthy Smokers, Productive Cough (PC), Chronic PC, PC with Signs of Airflow Obstruction, and Chronic PC with Signs of Airflow Obstruction. In both cohorts, higher grade of severity correlated with lower health status, greater frequency of injurious exposures, greater airway wall thickening, and lower circulating CC16 levels. Further, longitudinal follow-up suggested that disease resolution can occur at every grade of severity but is more common in groups of lower severity and least common once airway remodeling develops. Therefore, severity of productive cough can be graded based on symptoms and FAO and early intervention may benefit patients by changing the natural history of disease.

Spirometric variability in smokers: transitions in COPD diagnosis in a five-year longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Spirometrically-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is considered progressive but its natural history is inadequately studied. We hypothesized that spirometrically-defined COPD states could undergo beneficial transitions. METHODS: Participants in the Lovelace Smokers' Cohort (n = 1553), primarily women, were longitudinally studied over 5 years. Spirometric states included normal postbronchodilator spirometry, COPD Stage I, Unclassified state, and COPD Stage II+, as defined by GOLD guidelines. Beneficial transitions included either a decrease in disease severity, including resolution of spirometric abnormality, or maintenance of non-diseased state. 'All smokers' (n = 1553) and subgroups with normal and abnormal spirometry at baseline (n = 956 and 597 respectively) were separately analyzed. Markov-like model of transition probabilities over an average follow-up period of 5 years were calculated. RESULTS: Among 'all smokers', COPD Stage I, Unclassified, and COPD Stage II+ states were associated with probabilities of 16, 39, and 22 % respectively for beneficial transitions, and of 16, 35, and 4 % respectively for resolution. Beneficial transitions were more common for new-onset disease than for pre-existing disease (p < 0.001). Beneficial transitions were less common among older smokers, men, or those with bronchial hyperresponsiveness but more common among Hispanics and smokers with excess weight. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study of ever smokers, shows that spirometrically-defined COPD states, may not be uniformly progressive and can improve or resolve over time. The implication of these findings is that the spirometric diagnosis of COPD can be unstable. Furthermore, COPD may have a pre-disease state when interventions might help reverse or change its natural history. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NA.

A Pilot Randomized Controlled Trial of De Novo Belatacept-based Immunosuppression After Lung Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the leading cause of death beyond the first year after lung transplantation. The development of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) is a recognized risk factor for CLAD. Based on experience in kidney transplantation, we hypothesized that belatacept, a selective T-cell costimulatory blocker, would reduce the incidence of DSA after lung transplantation, which may ameliorate the risk of CLAD. METHODS: We conducted a pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) at 2 sites to assess the feasibility and inform the design of a large-scale RCT. All participants were treated with rabbit antithymocyte globulin for induction immunosuppression. Participants in the control arm were treated with tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and prednisone, and participants in the belatacept arm were treated with tacrolimus, belatacept, and prednisone through day 89 after transplant then converted to belatacept, mycophenolate mofetil, and prednisone for the remainder of year 1. RESULTS: After randomizing 27 participants, 3 in the belatacept arm died compared with none in the control arm. As a result, we stopped enrollment and treatment with belatacept, and all participants were treated with standard-of-care immunosuppression. Overall, 6 participants in the belatacept arm died compared with none in the control arm (log rank P = 0.008). We did not observe any differences in the incidence of DSA, acute cellular rejection, antibody-mediated rejection, CLAD, or infections between the 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the investigational regimen used in this pilot RCT is associated with increased mortality after lung transplantation.

Testing of a novel questionnaire of Household Exposure to Wood Smoke.

Household air pollution from wood smoke (WS), contributes to adverse health effects in both low- and high-income countries. However, measurement of WS exposure has been limited to expensive in-home monitoring and lengthy face-to-face interviews. This paper reports on the development and testing of a novel, self-report nine-item measure of WS exposure, called the Household Exposure to Wood Smoke (HEWS). A sample of 149 individuals using household wood stoves for heating from western states in the U.S., completed the HEWS during the winter months (November to March) of 2013 through 2016 with 30 subjects having in-home particle monitoring. Hard copy or online surveys were completed. Cronbach's alpha (α), intraclass correlations (ICC), exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and tests of associations were done to evaluate reliability and validity of the HEWS. Based on initial analysis, only 9 of the 12 items were retained and entered in the EFA. The EFA did not support a unitary scale as the 9 items demonstrated a 3-factor solution (WS exposure duration, proximity, and intensity) with Cronbach's α of 0.79, 0.91, and 0.62, respectively. ICC was 0.86 of the combined items with single items ranging from 0.46 to 0.95. WS intensity was associated with symptoms and levoglucosan levels, while WS duration was associated with stove and flume maintenance. The three-dimensional HEWS demonstrated internal consistency and test-retest reliability, structural validity, and initial criterion and construct validity.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Fungal Infections in Lung Transplant Recipients.

Fungal infections are a significant source of morbidity in the lung transplant population via direct allograft damage and predisposing patients to the development of chronic lung allograft dysfunction. Prompt diagnosis and treatment are imperative to limit allograft damage. This review article discusses incidence, risk factors, and symptoms with a specific focus on diagnostic and treatment strategies in the lung transplant population for fungal infections caused by Aspergillus, Candida, Coccidioides, Histoplasma, Blastomyces, Scedosporium/Lomentospora, Fusarium, and Pneumocystis jirovecii. Evidence for the use of newer triazole and inhaled antifungals to treat isolated pulmonary fungal infections in lung transplant recipients is also discussed.

Associations of Awake Prone Positioning-Induced Changes in Physiology with Intubation: An International Prospective Observational Study in Patients with Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure Related to COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Awake prone positioning has the potential to improve oxygenation and decrease respiratory rate, potentially reducing the need for intubation in patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. We investigated awake prone positioning-induced changes in oxygenation and respiratory rate, and the prognostic capacity for intubation in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: International multicenter prospective observation study in critically ill adult patients with COVID-19 receiving supplemental oxygen. We collected data on oxygenation and respiratory rate at baseline, and at 1 h after being placed in prone positioning. The combined primary outcome was oxygenation and respiratory rate at 1 h. The secondary endpoint was treatment failure, defined as need for intubation within 24 h of start of awake prone positioning. RESULTS: Between March 27th and November 2020, 101 patients were enrolled of which 99 were fully analyzable. Awake prone positioning lasted mean of 3 [2-4] h. In 77 patients (77.7%), awake prone positioning improved oxygenation, and in 37 patients (54.4%) it decreased respiratory rate. Twenty-nine patients (29.3%) were intubated within 24 h. An increase in SpO2/FiO2 of < 10 (OR 5.1, 95% CI 1.4-18.5, P = 0.01), a failure to increase PaO2/FiO2 to > 116 mmHg (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.2-10.8, P = 0.02), and a decrease in respiratory rate of < 2 breaths/min (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-9.5, P = 0.01) were independent variables associated with need for intubation. The AUC-ROC curve for intubation using a multivariable model was 0.73 (95% CI 0.62-0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Awake prone positioning improves oxygenation in the majority of patients, and decreases respiratory rate in more than half of patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure caused by COVID-19. One in three patients need intubation within 24 h. Awake prone position-induced changes in oxygenation and respiratory rate have prognostic capacity for intubation within 24 h.

Tocilizumab for antibody-mediated rejection treatment in lung transplantation.

Tocilizumab (TCZ), an IL-6 inhibitor, has shown promise in the treatment of donor-specific antibodies (DSA) and chronic antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) in renal transplant recipients. However, its use in lung transplantation has not been described. This retrospective case-control study compared AMR treatments containing TCZ in 9 bilateral lung transplant recipients to 18 patients treated for AMR without TCZ. Treatment with TCZ resulted in more clearance of DSA, lower recurrence of DSA, lower incidence of new DSA, and lower rates of graft failure when compared to those treated for AMR without TCZ. The incidence of infusion reactions, elevation in transaminases, and infections were similar between the 2 groups. These data support a role for TCZ in pulmonary AMR and establish preliminary evidence to design a randomized controlled trial of IL-6 inhibition for the management of AMR.

Impact of Angiotensin Blockade on Development of Chronic Lung Allograft Dysfunction.

Background: The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) is responsible for a multitude of physiological functions, including immunological effects such as promotion of TGF-ß and upregulation of IL-6 and IL-8 which are also implicated in the development of chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD). Blockade of the RAAS pathway in pre-clinical models has demonstrated a decrease in these cytokines and pulmonary neutrophil recruitment. Objective: This study sought to evaluate whether use of RAAS inhibitor (RAASi) in lung transplant recipients impacted CLAD-free survival. Methods: In this retrospective, single-center study, 35 lung transplant recipients who received a RAASi post-transplant were compared to 70 lung transplant recipients not exposed to a RAASi and were followed for up to 5 years post-transplant. Results: The incidence of CLAD did not differ based on RAASi treatment (34.3% in RAASi vs 38.6%, P-value .668). This was confirmed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with RAASi initiation as a time-varying covariate (RAASi hazard ratio of 1.01, P-value .986). Incidence of hyperkalemia and acute kidney injury were low in the RAASi group. Conclusions: This study demonstrated no association between post-transplant RAASi use and decreased risk of CLAD development. RAASi were also well tolerated in this patient population.