Reduced incidence of diabetes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta: A time-segmented longitudinal study of Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

AIM: To characterize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on diabetes diagnosis using data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), a population-based cohort study of chronic diseases in Alberta, Canada. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The ATP participants who were free of diabetes on 1 April 2018 were included in the study. A time-segmented regression model was used to compare incidence rates of diabetes before the COVID-19 pandemic, during the first two COVID-19 states of emergency, and in the period when the state of emergency was relaxed, after adjusting for seasonality, sociodemographic factors, socioeconomic status, and lifestyle behaviours. RESULTS: Among 43 705 ATP participants free of diabetes (65.5% females, age 60.4 ± 9.5 years in 2018), the rate of diabetes was 4.75 per 1000 person-year (PY) during the COVID-19 pandemic (up to 31 March 2021), which was 32% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 21%, 42%; p < 0.001) than pre-pandemic (6.98 per 1000 PY for the period 1 April 2018 to 16 March 2020). In multivariable regression analysis, the first COVID-19 state of emergency (first wave) was associated with an 87.3% (95% CI -98.6%, 13.9%; p = 0.07) reduction in diabetes diagnosis; this decreasing trend was sustained to the second COVID-19 state of emergency and no substantial rebound (increase) was observed when the COVID-19 state of emergency was relaxed. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 public health emergencies had a negative impact on diabetes diagnosis in Alberta. The reduction in diabetes diagnosis was likely due to province-wide health service disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Systematic plans to close the post-COVID-19 diagnostic gap are required in diabetes to avoid substantial downstream sequelae of undiagnosed disease.

Non-fasting lipids and cardiovascular disease in those with and without diabetes in Alberta's Tomorrow Project: A prospective cohort study.

AIMS: Non-fasting remnant cholesterol (RC) is a novel marker of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, however, data on this relationship in Canadians with diabetes (at high risk of CVD) is lacking. The objective of this analysis was to determine the relationship of RC with CVD in individuals with and without diabetes in the Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP) cohort. METHODS: Non-fasting lipid data collected as part of the ATP was linked to administrative health records (October 2000-March 2015) to ascertain incident CVD and prevalent diabetes. Participants without prevalent CVD or incident diabetes and who had complete, non-negative non-fasting lipid data collected with triglycerides <4.5 mmol/L were included (n = 13,631). The relationship between non-fasting RC and incident CVD diagnoses was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression, after stratification by diabetes status. RESULTS: Participants were 69.8% women with a mean age of 61.6 ± 9.7 years, and 6.5% had prevalent diabetes. Non-fasting RC was higher in participants with diabetes compared to those without (mean 0.94 ± 0.41 mmol/L vs. 0.77 ± 0.38 mmol/L, p < 0.0001) and was associated with increased risk of incident CVD among those without diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.22, 95% CI 1.03-1.43, p = 0.02). Although a similar trend was observed in participants with diabetes it did not reach statistical significance (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 0.84-2.05, p = 0.23). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated non-fasting RC predicted increased CVD risk in middle and older-aged adults without diabetes; similar trends were observed in participants with diabetes and require further testing in a larger sample.

Urban design and cardio-metabolic risk factors.

Accumulating evidence suggests that the built environment may be associated with cardiovascular disease via its influence on health behaviours. The aim of this study was to estimate the associations between traditional and novel neighbourhood built environment metrics and clinically assessed cardio-metabolic risk factors among a sample of adults in Canada. A total of 7171 participants from Albertas Tomorrow Project living in Alberta, Canada, were included. Cardio-metabolic risk factors were clinically measured. Two composite built environment metrics of traditional walkability and space syntax walkability were calculated. Among men, space syntax walkability was negatively associated with systolic and diastolic blood pressure (b = -0.87, 95% CI -1.43, -0.31 and b = -0.45, 95% CI -0.86, -0.04, respectively). Space syntax walkability was also associated with lower odds of overweight/obese among women and men (OR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.87, 0.99 and OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.79, 0.97, respectively). No significant associations were observed between traditional walkability and cardio-metabolic outcomes. This study showed that the novel built environment metric based on the space syntax theory was associated with some cardio-metabolic risk factors.

Mental health service use and associated predisposing, enabling and need factors in community living adults and older adults across Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Using Andersen's model of health care seeking behavior, we examined the predisposing, enabling, and need factors associated with mental health service use (MHSU) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic across Canada. METHODS: The sample included n = 45,542 participants in the 5 established regional cohorts of the Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow's Health (CanPath) and who responded to the CanPath COVID-19 health survey (May-December 2020), with complete data on MHSU. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out to study MHSU as a function of predisposing, enabling, and need factors. Analyses were stratified by regional cohort. RESULTS: Among the need factors, individuals reporting moderate/severe symptoms of depression and anxiety and poorer self-rated mental health were more likely to report MHSU. Among the enabling factors, receipt of informational/financial/practical support was associated with increased MHSU. While income was not consistently associated with MHSU, reported decrease in income was marginally associated with reduced MHSU. Among the predisposing factors, identifying as female or other gender minority was associated with increased MHSU, as was the presence of past-year cannabis use. In contrast, older age and alcohol consumption were associated with reduced MHSU. CONCLUSION: Need factors were consistently associated with MHSU. Although income inequities in MHSU were not observed, changes such as reduced income during the pandemic may lead to barriers in accessing mental health services. Future research should focus on better identifying contextual enabling factors and policies that overcome financial barriers to MHSU.

Lifestyle factors and lung cancer risk among never smokers in the Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow's Health (CanPath).

BACKGROUND: Although smoking is the primary risk factor for lung cancer, 15-25% of lung cancers occur in never smokers. Emerging evidence suggests lifestyle factors are associated with lung cancer risk, but few studies among never smokers exist. METHODS: A case-control study of never smokers within the Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow's Health was conducted. At recruitment, participants provided data on lifestyle, health history and sociodemographic factors. Incident lung cancers were identified through linkage with administrative health records. Cases (n = 190) were matched to controls (n = 760) on age, sex, and follow-up time. Logistic regression analyses, adjusted for matching factors and annual income, were used to identify associations between lifestyle factors and lung cancer risk. RESULTS: Consumption of < 5 servings of fruits and vegetables/day was associated with higher risk of lung cancer (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.03-2.17). Short or long sleep (≤ 6 or > 9 h/night) was also associated with increased risk of lung cancer (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.01-2.29). No associations were observed for obesity measures, alcohol consumption, or physical activity. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide evidence of a potential role between sleep, fruits and vegetable consumption, and lung cancer risk in a pan-Canadian, non-smoking population. However, the sample size is modest, and further investigation is needed.

Normal sex and age-specific parameters in a multi-ethnic population: a cardiovascular magnetic resonance study of the Canadian Alliance for Healthy Hearts and Minds cohort.

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing utility of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) for cardiac morphology and function, sex and age-specific normal reference values derived from large, multi-ethnic data sets are lacking. Furthermore, most available studies use a simplified tracing methodology. Using a large cohort of participants without history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or risk factors from the Canadian Alliance for Healthy Heart and Minds, we sought to establish a robust set of reference values for ventricular and atrial parameters using an anatomically correct contouring method, and to determine the influence of age and sex on ventricular parameters. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants (n = 3206, 65% females; age 55.2 ± 8.4 years for females and 55.1 ± 8.8 years for men) underwent CMR using standard methods for quantitative measurements of cardiac parameters. Normal ventricular and atrial reference values are provided: (1) for males and females, (2) stratified by four age categories, and (3) for different races/ethnicities. Values are reported as absolute, indexed to body surface area, or height. Ventricular volumes and mass were significantly larger for males than females (p < 0.001). Ventricular ejection fraction was significantly diminished in males as compared to females (p < 0.001). Indexed left ventricular (LV) end-systolic, end-diastolic volumes, mass and right ventricular (RV) parameters significantly decreased as age increased for both sexes (p < 0.001). For females, but not men, mean LV and RVEF significantly increased with age (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using anatomically correct contouring methodology, we provide accurate sex and age-specific normal reference values for CMR parameters derived from the largest, multi-ethnic population free of CVD to date. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02220582. Registered 20 August 2014-Retrospectively registered, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02220582 .

Association of dairy consumption patterns with the incidence of type 2 diabetes: Findings from Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to extract dairy consumption patterns of men and women from a population-based cohort and then assess the association of each consumption pattern with incident T2D risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective study was conducted within the framework of Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), in which 8615 men and 15,016 women provided information on dietary intake by completing a food-frequency questionnaire at baseline, and then were followed up over time to determine the incidence of T2D via questionnaires. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to extract dairy consumption patterns (DCPs). The association between each extracted pattern and T2D incidence was estimated using multivariable logistic regression models.The incidence of T2D among men and women was 3.8 and 3.2%, respectively, and the mean duration of follow-up was 5.2 years. Three major DCPs were identified. After controlling for potential confounders, the OR for risk of T2D in men in the highest compared with those in the lowest quartile of the DCP3 (whole milk, regular cheese, and non-fat milk as a beverage and in cereal) was 0.64 (95%CI: 0.47 to 0.88, P-trend=0.001), whereas it was not significant for women. DCP1 and DCP2 were not associated with incident T2D in men or women. CONCLUSION: Adherence to a DCP characterized by higher consumption of whole milk, regular cheese, and non-fat milk was associated with decreased risk of incident T2D only in men. Our results support current evidence that a combination of different dairy products, regardless of their fat content, might be favorable for health maintenance, at least in men.

Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between the built environment and walking: effect modification by socioeconomic status.

BACKGROUND: Although socioeconomic status (SES) has been shown to modify associations between the neighborhood built environment and physical activity, contradictory results exist. Objectives of this cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis were to: 1) examine whether overall neighborhood walkability and specific built characteristics were associated with walking among adults at a single point in time and after they relocate neighborhoods, and 2) test for effect modification of these associations by SES. METHODS: We linked longitudinal data from 703 adults who relocated urban neighborhoods between two waves of Alberta's Tomorrow Project (2008-2015) to neighborhood built environment data. We created a walkability index from measures of population counts, street connectivity, and destination diversity within 400 m of participants' homes. In cross-sectional analyses, we used generalized linear models to estimate associations between built characteristics and minutes walked per week at baseline. For the longitudinal analyses, we used fixed-effects linear regression models to estimate associations between changes in built characteristics and minutes walked per week. We also assessed if indicators of SES (individual education or household income) modified both sets of associations. RESULTS: Most cross-sectional and longitudinal associations were small and statistically non-significant. Neighborhood population count (b = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.07) and street connectivity (b = - 1.75, 95% CI: - 3.26, - 0.24) were cross-sectionally associated with walking duration among the overall sample. None of the longitudinal associations were statistically significant among the overall sample. There was limited evidence of effect modification by SES, however, we found negative cross-sectional associations between street connectivity and walking among adults with lower education and income, and a positive association between percent change in walkability and change in walking among lower educated adults. CONCLUSIONS: Despite population count and street connectivity being associated with walking at baseline, changes in these built environment variables were not associated with changes in walking following residential relocation. Our findings also provide evidence, albeit weak, that changes in neighborhood walkability, resulting from residential relocation, might more strongly affect walking among low SES adults. Further longitudinal research is needed to examine built environment characteristics with walking for different purposes and to test for inequitable socioeconomic impacts.

High-throughput LC-MS method to investigate postprandial lipemia: considerations for future precision nutrition research.

Elevated postprandial lipemia is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, yet methods to quantitate postmeal handling of dietary lipids in humans are limited. This study tested a new method to track dietary lipid appearance using a stable isotope tracer (2H11-oleate) in liquid meals containing three levels of fat [low fat (LF), 15 g; moderate fat (MF), 30 g; high fat (HF), 60 g]. Meals were fed to 12 healthy men [means ± SD, age 31.3 ± 9.2 yr, body mass index (BMI) 24.5 ± 1.9 kg/m2] during four randomized study visits; the HF meal was administered twice for reproducibility. Blood was collected over 8 h postprandially, triglyceride (TG)-rich lipoproteins (TRL), and particles with a Svedberg flotation rate >400 (Sf > 400, n = 8) were isolated by ultracentrifugation, and labeling of two TG species (54:3 and 52:2) was quantified by LC-MS. Total plasma TRL-TG concentrations were threefold greater than Sf > 400-TG. Both Sf > 400- and TRL-TG 54:3 were present at higher concentrations than 52:2, and singly labeled TG concentrations were higher than doubly labeled. Furthermore, TG 54:3 and the singly labeled molecules demonstrated higher plasma absolute entry rates differing significantly across fat levels within a single TG species (P < 0.01). Calculation of fractional entry showed no significant differences in label handling supporting the utility of either TG species for appearance rate calculations. These data demonstrate the utility of labeling research meals with stable isotopes to investigate human postprandial lipemia while simultaneously highlighting the importance of examining individual responses. Meal type and timing, control of prestudy activities, and effects of sex on outcomes should match the research goals. The method, optimized here, will be beneficial to conduct basic science research in precision nutrition and clinical drug development.NEW & NOTEWORTHY A novel method to test human intestinal lipid handling using stable isotope labeling is presented and, for the first time, plasma appearance and lipid turnover were quantified in 12 healthy men following meals with varying amounts of fat. The method can be applied to studies in precision nutrition characterizing individual response to support basic science research or drug development. This report discusses key questions for consideration in precision nutrition that were highlighted by the data.

Associations between neighbourhood built characteristics and sedentary behaviours among Canadian men and women: findings from Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

Evidence of associations between neighbourhood built characteristics and sedentary behaviours is mixed. The study aim was to investigate the associations between objectively-derived neighbourhood built characteristics and self-reported sedentary behaviours among Canadian men and women. This study sourced survey data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (2008; n = 14,785), in which sitting and motor vehicle travel times during the last 7 days was measured. Geographic Information System was used to calculate neighbourhood built characteristics within a 400 m buffer of participant's home and a walkability score was estimated. To estimate the associations between neighbourhood characteristics and sedentary behaviours, covariate-adjusted generalized linear regression models were used. Walkability, 3-way intersections, and population count were positively associated with sitting time. Business destinations and greenness were negatively associated with sitting time. Walkability, 3-way, and 4-way intersections were negatively associated with motor vehicle travel time. Sex-specific associations between neighbourhood characteristics and sedentary behaviour were found. Among men, business destinations were negatively associated with sitting time, and 3-way intersections, population count, and walkability were negatively associated with motor vehicle travel time. Among women, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was negatively associated with sitting time. Interventions to reduce sedentary behaviours may need to target neighbourhoods that have built characteristics which might support these behaviours. More research is needed to disentangle the complex relationships between different neighbourhood built characteristics and specific types of sedentary behaviour.

Reduced Cognitive Assessment Scores Among Individuals With Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Detected Vascular Brain Injury.

Background and Purpose- Little is known about the association between covert vascular brain injury and cognitive impairment in middle-aged populations. We investigated if scores on a cognitive screen were lower in individuals with higher cardiovascular risk, and those with covert vascular brain injury. Methods- Seven thousand five hundred forty-seven adults, aged 35 to 69 years, free of cardiovascular disease underwent a cognitive assessment using the Digital Symbol Substitution test and Montreal Cognitive Assessment, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to detect covert vascular brain injury (high white matter hyperintensities, lacunar, and nonlacunar brain infarctions). Cardiovascular risk factors were quantified using the INTERHEART (A Global Study of Risk Factors for Acute Myocardial Infarction) risk score. Multivariable mixed models tested for independent determinants of reduced cognitive scores. The population attributable risk of risk factors and MRI vascular brain injury on low cognitive scores was calculated. Results- The mean age of participants was 58 (SD, 9) years; 55% were women. Montreal Cognitive Assessment and Digital Symbol Substitution test scores decreased significantly with increasing age (P<0.0001), INTERHEART risk score (P<0.0001), and among individuals with high white matter hyperintensities, nonlacunar brain infarction, and individuals with 3+ silent brain infarctions. Adjusted for age, sex, education, ethnicity covariates, Digital Symbol Substitution test was significantly lowered by 1.0 (95% CI, -1.3 to -0.7) point per 5-point cardiovascular risk score increase, 1.9 (95% CI, -3.2 to -0.6) per high white matter hyperintensities, 3.5 (95% CI, -6.4 to -0.7) per nonlacunar stroke, and 6.8 (95% CI, -11.5 to -2.2) when 3+ silent brain infarctions were present. No postsecondary education accounted for 15% (95% CI, 12-17), moderate and high levels of cardiovascular risk factors accounted for 19% (95% CI, 8-30), and MRI vascular brain injury accounted for 10% (95% CI, -3 to 22) of low test scores. Conclusions- Among a middle-aged community-dwelling population, scores on a cognitive screen were lower in individuals with higher cardiovascular risk factors or MRI vascular brain injury. Much of the population attributable risk of low cognitive scores can be attributed to lower educational attainment, higher cardiovascular risk factors, and MRI vascular brain injury.

A population-based study of the associations between neighbourhood walkability and different types of physical activity in Canadian men and women.

Few Canadian studies have examined whether or not associations between neighbourhood walkability and physical activity differ by sex. We estimated associations between perceived neighbourhood walkability and physical activity among Canadian men and women. This study included cross-sectional survey data from participants in 'Alberta's Tomorrow Project' (Canada; n = 14,078), a longitudinal cohort study. The survey included socio-demographic items as well as the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) and the abbreviated Neighbourhood Environment Walkability Scale (NEWS-A), which captured perceived neighbourhood built characteristics. We computed subscale and overall walkability scores from NEWS-A responses. Covariate-adjusted generalized linear models estimated the associations of participation (≥10 min/week) and minutes of different types of physical activity, including transportation walking (TW), leisure walking (LW), moderate-intensity physical activity (MPA), and vigorous-intensity physical activity (VPA) with walkability scores. Walkability was positively associated with participation in TW, LW, MPA and VPA and minutes of TW, LW, and VPA. Among men, a negative association was found between street connectivity and VPA participation. Additionally, crime safety was negatively associated with VPA minutes among men. Among women, pedestrian infrastructure was positively associated with LW participation and overall walkability was positively associated with VPA minutes. Notably, overall walkability was positively associated with LW participation among men and women. Different perceived neighbourhood walkability characteristics might be associated with participation and time spent in different types of physical activity among men and women living in Alberta. Interventions designed to modify perceptions of neighbourhood walkability might influence initiation or maintenance of different types of physical activity.

Validation of drug prescription records for senior patients in Alberta's Tomorrow Project: Assessing agreement between two population-level administrative pharmaceutical databases in Alberta, Canada.

PURPOSE: To assess agreement between the Pharmaceutical Information Network (PIN), a newly implemented medication data repository in Alberta, Canada, and the Alberta Blue Cross (ABC) database, a long established database with medication records of all senior patients in Alberta. METHODS: PIN data (2008-2015) were cross-validated with ABC medication records for senior participants (older than 65 years old) in Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), a longitudinal cohort study in Alberta. The completeness and accuracy of PIN were respectively calculated as the percentage of ABC records coexisting (concordant) in PIN and the percentage of concordant records having mutually agreeable information on drug quantity. Generalized linear models were used to examine potential association of PIN completeness and accuracy with sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: A total of 1 218 191 drug prescription records from 13 143 ATP participants were captured by PIN and ABC in 2008-2015, among which 91.6% were from PIN, 82.5% from ABC, and 74.2% coexisted in PIN and ABC. The overall completeness of PIN in capturing ABC medication records was 89.9%, with small variations (less than ±5%) across types of drugs. The completeness of PIN was improved on average by 1.3% annually over time (P < .001). PIN had 100% accuracy as defined by drug quantity data agreeable with ABC records. No significant associations were observed with age, sex, ethnicity, rural/urban areas, and socioeconomic status of the participants. CONCLUSIONS: Cross-validated with the ABC dataset, our study showed that irrespective of drug type, PIN has a fairly good completeness (approximately 90%) and accuracy (100%) in capturing the ABC claimed medications for senior patients in Alberta.

Impact of adherence to cancer-specific prevention recommendations on subsequent risk of cancer in participants in Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

OBJECTIVE: The World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) and the American Institute for Cancer Research (AICR) publish recommendations for cancer prevention. The present study aimed to estimate the association between adherence to these cancer-specific prevention recommendations and subsequent development of cancer in a prospective cohort. DESIGN: A composite adherence score was constructed based on questionnaire data to reflect overall adherence to WCRF/AICR lifestyle-related recommendations on body fatness, physical activity, diet and alcoholic drinks. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the association (hazard ratio; 95 % CI) between the adherence score and risk of developing cancer. SETTING: Alberta's Tomorrow Project, a prospective cohort study.ParticipantsMen and women (n 25 100, mean age at enrolment 50·5 years) recruited between 2001 and 2009 with no previous cancer diagnosis were included in analyses. RESULTS: Cancer cases (n 2066) were identified during a mean follow-up of 11·7 years. Participants who were most adherent to the selected WCRF/AICR recommendations (composite score: 4-6) were 13 % (0·87; 0·78, 0·98) less likely to develop cancer compared with those who were least adherent (composite score: 0-2). Each additional recommendation met corresponded to a 5 % (0·95; 0·91, 0·99) reduction in risk of developing cancer. When stratified by sex, the associations remained significant for women, but not for men. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to lifestyle-related cancer prevention recommendations was associated with reduced risk of developing cancer over the follow-up term in this Canadian cohort.

Systemic use of antibiotics and risk of diabetes in adults: A nested case-control study of Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

AIMS: Previous observational studies using administrative health records have suggested an increased risk of diabetes with use of antibiotics. However, unmeasured confounding factors may explain these results. This study characterized the association between systemic use of antibiotics and risk of diabetes in a cohort of adults in Canada, accounting for both clinical and self-reported disease risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this nested case-control study, we used data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP), a longitudinal cohort study in Canada, and the linked administrative health records (2000-2015). Incident cases of diabetes were matched with up to 8 age and sex-matched controls per case. Conditional logistic regression was used to examine the association between antibiotic exposures and incident diabetes after sequentially adjusting for important clinical and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: This study included 1676 cases of diabetes and 13 401 controls. Although 17.9% of cases received more than 5 courses of antibiotics, compared to 13.8% of controls (P < .0001), the association between antibiotic use and risk of diabetes was progressively reduced as important clinical and lifestyle factors were accounted for. In fully adjusted models, compared to participants with 0 to 1 courses of antibiotics, participants receiving more antibiotics had no increased risk of diabetes [Odds Ratio, 0.97 (0.83-1.13) for 2 to 4 courses and 0.98 (0.82-1.18) for ≥5 courses]. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for clinical and difficult-to-capture lifestyle data, we found no association between systemic use of antibiotics and risk of diabetes. Our results suggest that those positive associations observed in previous studies using only administrative records might have been confounded.

Changes in body mass index and incidence of diabetes: A longitudinal study of Alberta's Tomorrow Project Cohort.

Although obesity is a known risk factor for diabetes, the impact of body mass index (BMI) changes over time, especially BMI reduction, on diabetes development is less than clear. The objective of this study is to characterize the association between BMI changes over time and incidence of diabetes in a cohort of adults in Alberta. From 2000 to 2008, Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP) enrolled participants aged 35-69 to a population-based prospective cohort study. BMI was calculated from self-reported height and weight; change in BMI (∆BMI) was calculated as the difference between baseline and follow-up measurements. Diabetes cases were identified using the Canadian National Diabetes Surveillance System algorithm applied to linked administrative data (2000-2015). Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between ∆BMI and incidence of diabetes. In a subset of the ATP cohort (n=19,164), 1168 incident cases of diabetes were identified during 198,853person-years of follow-up. Overall, BMI increase was associated with increased risk and BMI reduction was associated with reduced risk of diabetes. Particularly, compared to minimal BMI change (±5%), moderate (5%-10%) reduction in BMI was associated with 34% (95% CI: 12%-51%) reduction in risk of diabetes in participants with obesity; whereas 10% or greater increase in BMI was associated with an increased risk of diabetes of 64% or more in participants with overweight and obesity; in participants with normal and underweight, BMI changes was not apparently associated with risk of diabetes. Public health programs promoting weight loss, even at a moderate extent, would reduce risk of diabetes.

The Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow Project: a pan-Canadian platform for research on chronic disease prevention.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the complex interaction of risk factors that increase the likelihood of developing common diseases is challenging. The Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow Project (CPTP) is a prospective cohort study created as a population-health research platform for assessing the effect of genetics, behaviour, family health history and environment (among other factors) on chronic diseases. METHODS: Volunteer participants were recruited from the general Canadian population for a confederation of 5 regional cohorts. Participants were enrolled in the study and core information obtained using 2 approaches: attendance at a study assessment centre for all study measures (questionnaire, venous blood sample and physical measurements) or completion of the core questionnaire (online or paper), with later collection of other study measures where possible. Physical measurements included height, weight, percentage body fat and blood pressure. Participants consented to passive follow-up through linkage with administrative health databases and active follow-up through recontact. All participant data across the 5 regional cohorts were harmonized. RESULTS: A total of 307 017 participants aged 30-74 from 8 provinces were recruited. More than half provided a venous blood sample and/or other biological sample, and 33% completed physical measurements. A total of 709 harmonized variables were created; almost 25% are available for all participants and 60% for at least 220 000 participants. INTERPRETATION: Primary recruitment for the CPTP is complete, and data and biosamples are available to Canadian and international researchers through a data-access process. The CPTP will support research into how modifiable risk factors, genetics and the environment interact to affect the development of cancer and other chronic diseases, ultimately contributing evidence to reduce the global burden of chronic disease.

Patterns and predictors of adherence to colorectal cancer screening recommendations in Alberta's Tomorrow Project participants stratified by risk.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is an important modifiable behaviour for cancer control. Regular screening, following recommendations for the type, timing and frequency based on personal CRC risk, contributes to earlier detection and increases likelihood of successful treatment. METHODS: To determine adherence to screening recommendations in a large provincial cohort of adults, participants in Alberta's Tomorrow Project (n = 9641) were stratified based on increasing level of CRC risk: age (Age-only), family history of CRC (FamilyHx), personal history of bowel conditions (PersonalHx), or both (Family/PersonalHx) using self-reported information from questionnaires. Provincial and national guidelines for timing and frequency of screening tests were used to determine if participants were up-to-date based on their CRC risk. Screening status was compared between enrollment (2000-2006) and follow-up (2008) to determine screening pattern over time. RESULTS: The majority of participants (77%) fell into the average risk Age-only strata. Only a third of this strata were up-to-date for screening at baseline, but the proportion increased across the higher risk strata, with > 90% of the highest risk Family/PersonalHx strata up-to-date at baseline. There was also a lower proportion (< 25%) of the Age-only group who were regular screeners over time compared to the higher risk strata, though age, higher income and uptake of other screening tests (e.g. mammography) were associated with a greater likelihood of regular screening in multinomial logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: The low (< 50%) adherence to regular CRC screening in average and moderate risk strata highlights the need to further explore barriers to uptake of screening across different risk profiles.

Diet quality is associated with reduced incidence of cancer and self-reported chronic disease: Observations from Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

The objective of this study was to assess diet quality using the Healthy Eating Index-2005 Canada (HEI-2005-Canada) and its association with risk of cancer and chronic disease in a sample of Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP) participants. Food frequency questionnaires completed by 25,169 participants (38% men; mean age 50.3 (9.2)) enrolled between 2000 and 2008 were used to calculate HEI-2005-Canada scores. Data from a subset of participants (n=10,735) who reported no chronic disease at enrollment were used to investigate the association between HEI-2005-Canada score and development of self-reported chronic disease at follow-up (2008). Participants were divided into HEI-2005-Canada score quartiles. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cancer and chronic disease incidence. In this cohort, mean HEI-2005-Canada scores for men and women were 50.9 and 55.5 (maximum range 0-100), respectively. In men, higher HEI-2005-Canada score (Q4 vs. Q1) was associated with lower cancer risk (HR (95% CI) 0.63 (0.49-0.83)) over the course of follow-up (mean (SD)=10.4 (2.3) years); the same was not observed in women. In contrast, higher overall HEI-2005-Canada score (Q4 vs. Q1) was associated with lower risk of self-reported chronic disease (0.85 (0.75-0.97)) in both men and women over follow-up (4.2 (2.3) years). In conclusion, in this cohort better diet quality was associated with a lower risk of cancer in men and lower risk of chronic disease in both sexes. Future studies with longer follow-up and repeated measures of diet may be helpful to elucidate sex-specific associations between dietary quality and disease outcomes.