Current breeding distributions and predicted range shifts under climate change in two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits in Asia.

Habitat loss and shifts associated with climate change threaten global biodiversity, with impacts likely to be most pronounced at high latitudes. With the disappearance of the tundra breeding habitats, migratory shorebirds that breed at these high latitudes are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change than those in temperate regions. We examined this idea using new distributional information on two subspecies of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa in Asia: the northerly, bog-breeding L. l. bohaii and the more southerly, steppe-breeding L. l. melanuroides. Based on breeding locations of tagged and molecularly assayed birds, we modelled the current breeding distributions of the two subspecies with species distribution models, tested those models for robustness and then used them to predict climatically suitable breeding ranges in 2070 according to bioclimatic variables and different climate change scenarios. Our models were robust and showed that climate change is expected to push bohaii into the northern rim of the Eurasian continent. Melanuroides is also expected to shift northward, stopping in the Yablonovyy and Stanovoy Ranges, and breeding elevation is expected to increase. Climatically suitable breeding habitat ranges would shrink to 16% and 11% of the currently estimated ranges of bohaii and melanuroides, respectively. Overall, this study provides the first predictions for the future distributions of two little-known Black-tailed Godwit subspecies and highlights the importance of factoring in shifts in bird distribution when designing climate-proof conservation strategies.

Age-dependent timing and routes demonstrate developmental plasticity in a long-distance migratory bird.

Longitudinal tracking studies have revealed consistent differences in the migration patterns of individuals from the same populations. The sources or processes causing this individual variation are largely unresolved. As a result, it is mostly unknown how much, how fast and when animals can adjust their migrations to changing environments. We studied the ontogeny of migration in a long-distance migratory shorebird, the black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa limosa, a species known to exhibit marked individuality in the migratory routines of adults. By observing how and when these individual differences arise, we aimed to elucidate whether individual differences in migratory behaviour are inherited or emerge as a result of developmental plasticity. We simultaneously tracked juvenile and adult godwits from the same breeding area on their south- and northward migrations. To determine how and when individual differences begin to arise, we related juvenile migration routes, timing and mortality rates to hatch date and hatch year. Then, we compared adult and juvenile migration patterns to identify potential age-dependent differences. In juveniles, the timing of their first southward departure was related to hatch date. However, their subsequent migration routes, orientation, destination, migratory duration and likelihood of mortality were unrelated to the year or timing of migration, or their sex. Juveniles left the Netherlands after all tracked adults. They then flew non-stop to West Africa more often and incurred higher mortality rates than adults. Some juveniles also took routes and visited stopover sites far outside the well-documented adult migratory corridor. Such juveniles, however, were not more likely to die. We found that juveniles exhibited different migratory patterns than adults, but no evidence that these behaviours are under natural selection. We thus eliminate the possibility that the individual differences observed among adult godwits are present at hatch or during their first migration. This adds to the mounting evidence that animals possess the developmental plasticity to change their migration later in life in response to environmental conditions as those conditions are experienced.

Adverse wind conditions during northward Sahara crossings increase the in-flight mortality of Black-tailed Godwits.

Long-distance migratory flights are predicted to be associated with higher mortality rates when individuals encounter adverse weather conditions. However, directly connecting environmental conditions experienced in-flight with the survival of migrants has proven difficult. We studied how the in-flight mortality of 53 satellite-tagged Black-tailed Godwits (Limosa limosa limosa) during 132 crossings of the Sahara Desert, a major geographical barrier along their migration route between The Netherlands and sub-Saharan Africa, is correlated with the experienced wind conditions and departure date during both southward and northward migration. We show that godwits experienced higher wind assistance during southward crossings, which seems to reflect local prevailing trade winds. Critically, we found that fatal northward crossings (15 deaths during 61 crossings) were associated with adverse wind conditions. Wind conditions during migration can thus directly influence vital rates. Changing wind conditions associated with global change may thus profoundly influence the costs of long-distance migration in the future.

High-altitude shorebird migration in the absence of topographical barriers: avoiding high air temperatures and searching for profitable winds.

Nearly 20% of all bird species migrate between breeding and nonbreeding sites annually. Their migrations include storied feats of endurance and physiology, from non-stop trans-Pacific crossings to flights at the cruising altitudes of jetliners. Despite intense interest in these performances, there remains great uncertainty about which factors most directly influence bird behaviour during migratory flights. We used GPS trackers that measure an individual's altitude and wingbeat frequency to track the migration of black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa) and identify the abiotic factors influencing their in-flight migratory behaviour. We found that godwits flew at altitudes above 5000 m during 21% of all migratory flights, and reached maximum flight altitudes of nearly 6000 m. The partial pressure of oxygen at these altitudes is less than 50% of that at sea level, yet these extremely high flights occurred in the absence of topographical barriers. Instead, they were associated with high air temperatures at lower altitudes and increasing wind support at higher altitudes. Our results therefore suggest that wind, temperature and topography all play a role in determining migratory behaviour, but that their relative importance is context dependent. Extremely high-altitude flights may thus not be especially rare, but they may only occur in very specific environmental contexts.

Warming springs and habitat alteration interact to impact timing of breeding and population dynamics in a migratory bird.

In seasonal environments, increasing spring temperatures lead many taxa to advance the timing of reproduction. Species that do not may suffer lower fitness. We investigated why black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa limosa), a ground-breeding agricultural grassland shorebird, have not advanced timing of reproduction during the last three decades in the face of climate change and human-induced habitat degradation. We used data from an 11-year field study to parameterize an Integral Projection Model to predict how spring temperature and habitat quality simultaneously influence the timing of reproduction and population dynamics. We found apparent selection for earlier laying, but not a correlation between the laying dates of parents and their offspring. Nevertheless, in warmer springs, laying dates of adults show a stronger positive correlation with laying date in previous springs than in cooler ones, and this leads us to predict a slight advance in the timing of reproduction if spring temperatures continue to increase. We also show that only in landscapes with low agricultural activity, the population can continue to act as a source. This study shows how climate change and declining habitat quality may enhance extinction risk.

Generational shift in spring staging site use by a long-distance migratory bird.

In response to environmental change, species have been observed altering their migratory behaviours. Few studies, however, have been able to determine whether these alterations resulted from inherited, plastic or flexible changes. Here, we present a unique observation of a rapid population-level shift in migratory routes-over 300 km from Spain to Portugal-by continental black-tailed godwits Limosa limosa limosa This shift did not result from adult godwits changing staging sites, as adult site use was highly consistent. Rather, the shift resulted from young godwits predominantly using Portugal over Spain. We found no differences in reproductive success or survival among individuals using either staging site, indicating that the shift resulted from developmental plasticity rather than natural selection. Our results therefore suggest that new migratory routes can develop within a generation and that young individuals may be the agents of such rapid changes.

When Siberia came to the Netherlands: the response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring weather event.

1. Extreme weather events have the potential to alter both short- and long-term population dynamics as well as community- and ecosystem-level function. Such events are rare and stochastic, making it difficult to fully document how organisms respond to them and predict the repercussions of similar events in the future. 2. To improve our understanding of the mechanisms by which short-term events can incur long-term consequences, we documented the behavioural responses and fitness consequences for a long-distance migratory bird, the continental black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa limosa, resulting from a spring snowstorm and three-week period of record low temperatures. 3. The event caused measurable responses at three spatial scales - continental, regional and local - including migratory delays (+19 days), reverse migrations (>90 km), elevated metabolic costs (+8·8% maintenance metabolic rate) and increased foraging rates (+37%). 4. There were few long-term fitness consequences, however, and subsequent breeding seasons instead witnessed high levels of reproductive success and little evidence of carry-over effects. 5. This suggests that populations with continued access to food, behavioural flexibility and time to dissipate the costs of the event can likely withstand the consequences of an extreme weather event. For populations constrained in one of these respects, though, extreme events may entail extreme ecological consequences.

Translocation of shorebird siblings shows intraspecific variation in migration routines to arise after fledging.

Although many recent tracking studies have uncovered considerable variation in the migratory routines of birds,1,2 the source of this variation is surprisingly poorly discussed.3 We hypothesize that a wealth of possible factors, including factors other than genetics, translate into these variable outcomes. To demonstrate how factors that are not inherited can shape migratory routine during development, we performed a translocation and delayed-release experiment with juvenile, hand-raised black-tailed godwits Limosa limosa limosa that were carefully matched for ancestral background, releasing siblings 1,000 km apart. Translocated juveniles adopted the spatiotemporal pattern of migration that is habitual for the population at the release location rather than the origin. This leads to the rejection of the hypothesis that the migration of inexperienced birds is only shaped by pre-release factors, including genes, maternal material in the eggs, and a common environment from hatching to fledging. Instead, these findings are consistent with inexperienced migrants also developing their knowledge and capacities through contextual individual learning,4 the precise nature of which now warrants study. The fact that hand-raised godwits, depending on the context in which they are released, can be induced to show different migratory routines, wintering sites, and breeding locations from their siblings indicates that processes during development offer the substrate for rapid adaptation of long-distance migration.

Full lifetime perspectives on the costs and benefits of lay-date variation in tree swallows.

Animals must balance various costs and benefits when deciding when to breed. The costs and benefits of breeding at different times have received much attention, but most studies have been limited to investigating short-term season-to-season fitness effects. However, breeding early, versus late, in a season may influence lifetime fitness over many years, trading off in complex ways across the breeder's lifespan. In this study, we examined the complete life histories of 867 female tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) breeding in Ithaca, New York, between 2002 and 2016. Earlier breeders outperformed later breeders in short-term measures of reproductive output and offspring quality. Though there were weak indications that females paid long-term future survival costs for breeding early, lifetime fledgling output was markedly higher overall in early-breeding birds. Importantly, older females breeding later in the season did not experience compensating life history advantages that suggested an alternative equal-fitness breeding strategy. Rather, most or all of the swallows appear to be breeding as early as they can, and differences in lay dates appear to be determined primarily by differences in individual quality or condition. Lay date had a significant repeatability across breeding attempts by the same female, and the first lay date of females fledged in our population was strongly influenced by the first lay date of their mothers, indicating the potential for ongoing selection on lay date. By examining performance over the entire lifespan of a large number of individuals, we were able to clarify the relationship between timing of breeding and fitness and gain new insight into the sources of variability in this important life history trait.

Natal habitat and sex-specific survival rates result in a male-biased adult sex ratio.

The adult sex ratio (ASR) is a crucial component of the ecological and evolutionary forces shaping the dynamics of a population. Although in many declining populations ASRs have been reported to be skewed, empirical studies exploring the demographic factors shaping ASRs are still rare. In this study of the socially monogamous and sexually dimorphic Black-tailed Godwit (Limosa limosa limosa), we aim to evaluate the sex ratio of chicks at hatch and the subsequent sex-specific survival differences occurring over 3 subsequent life stages. We found that, at hatch, the sex ratio did not deviate from parity. However, the survival of pre-fledged females was 15-30% lower than that of males and the sex bias in survival was higher in low-quality habitat. Additionally, survival of adult females was almost 5% lower than that of adult males. Because survival rates of males and females did not differ during other life-history stages, the ASR in the population was biased toward males. Because females are larger than males, food limitations during development or sex-specific differences in the duration of development may explain the lower survival of female chicks. Differences among adults are less obvious and suggest previously unknown sex-related selection pressures. Irrespective of the underlying causes, by reducing the available number of females in this socially monogamous species, a male-biased ASR is likely to contribute to the ongoing decline of the Dutch godwit population.

Does wintering north or south of the Sahara correlate with timing and breeding performance in black-tailed godwits?

Migrating long distances requires time and energy, and may interact with an individual's performance during breeding. These seasonal interactions in migratory animals are best described in populations with disjunct nonbreeding distributions. The black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa limosa), which breeds in agricultural grasslands in Western Europe, has such a disjunct nonbreeding distribution: The majority spend the nonbreeding season in West Africa, while a growing number winters north of the Sahara on the Iberian Peninsula. To test whether crossing the Sahara has an effect on breeding season phenology and reproductive parameters, we examined differences in the timing of arrival, breeding habitat quality, lay date, egg volume, and daily nest survival among godwits (154 females and 157 males), individually marked in a breeding area in the Netherlands for which wintering destination was known on the basis of resightings. We also examined whether individual repeatability in arrival date differed between birds wintering north or south of the Sahara. Contrary to expectation, godwits wintering south of the Sahara arrived two days earlier and initiated their clutch six days earlier than godwits wintering north of the Sahara. Arrival date was equally repeatable for both groups, and egg volume larger in birds wintering north of the Sahara. Despite these differences, we found no association between wintering location and the quality of breeding habitat or nest survival. This suggests that the crossing of an important ecological barrier and doubling of the migration distance, twice a year, do not have clear negative reproductive consequences for some long-distance migrants.