RESUMO
This paper argues that modelling of accidents and injuries not based on the broadest possible conceptualization of the accident generation process is likely to suffer from unintended biases. Further, careful consideration must be given to the objectives for which the modelling is designed. The analysis recognizes that the form modelling can take is constrained by data availability. Alternative modelling techniques are discussed along with the advantages and weaknesses of each. Finally, it is recommended that, when possible, a battery of techniques be used, to guarantee needed information is obtained while assuring the results are not simply a biased product of the technique used.
Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito , Modelos Teóricos , Humanos , Legislação como Assunto , Comportamento Social , Estatística como AssuntoRESUMO
"The structural change model of the demographic transition developed by Easterlin and others is explored empirically by applying the Brown, Durbin and Evans test of structural change to annual data from the transitions of Sweden, Norway, England and Wales, and Finland. The evidence strongly supports the structural change model over traditional models (based on gradual changes in explanatory variables), indicating a supply response of fertility to declining illness and death during the early stages of transition, and a demand response to the death of children during the latter stages, when families are likely to have achieved desired size."