Risk-Taking Is Associated with Decreased Subjective Value Signals and Increased Prediction Error Signals in the Hot Columbia Card Task.

It remains a pressing concern to understand how neural computations relate to risky decisions. However, most observations of brain-behavior relationships in the risk-taking domain lack a rigorous computational basis or fail to emulate of the dynamic, sequential nature of real-life risky decision-making. Recent advances emphasize the role of neural prediction error (PE) signals. We modeled, according to prospect theory, the choices of n = 43 human participants (33 females, 10 males) performing an EEG version of the hot Columbia Card Task, featuring rounds of sequential decisions between stopping (safe option) and continuing with increasing odds of a high loss (risky option). Single-trial regression EEG analyses yielded a subjective value signal at centroparietal (300-700 ms) and frontocentral (>800 ms) electrodes and in the delta band, as well as PE signals tied to the feedback-related negativity, P3a, and P3b, and in the theta band. Higher risk preference (total number of risky choices) was linked to attenuated subjective value signals but increased PE signals. Higher P3-like activity associated with the most positive PE in each round predicted stopping in the present round but not risk-taking in the subsequent round. Our findings indicate that decreased representation of decision values and increased sensitivity to winning despite low odds (positive PE) facilitate risky choices at the subject level. Strong neural responses when gains are least expected (the most positive PE on each round) adaptively contribute to safer choices at the trial-by-trial level but do not affect risky choice at the round-by-round level.

On the effects of impulsivity and compulsivity on neural correlates of model-based performance.

Impaired goal-directed behavior is associated with a range of mental disorders, implicating underlying transdiagnostic factors. While compulsivity has been linked to reduced model-based (MB) control, impulsivity has rarely been studied in the context of reinforcement learning despite its links to reward processing and cognitive control. This study investigated the neural mechanisms underlying MB control and the influence of impulsivity and compulsivity, using EEG data from 238 individuals during a two-step decision making task. Single-trial analyses revealed a modulation of the feedback-related negativity (FRN), where amplitudes were higher after common transitions and positive reward prediction error (RPE), indicating a valence effect. Meanwhile, enhanced P3 amplitudes after rare transitions and both positive and negative RPE possibly reflect surprise. In a second step, we regressed the mean b values of the effect of RPE on the EEG signals onto self-reported impulsivity and compulsivity and behavioral MB control (w). The effect of RPE on FRN-related activity was mainly associated with higher w scores, linking the FRN to MB control. Crucially, the modulation of the P3 by RPE was negatively associated with compulsivity, pointing to a deficient mental model in highly compulsive individuals.