Peripheral TREM1 responses to brain and intestinal immunogens amplify stroke severity.

Stroke is a multiphasic process in which initial cerebral ischemia is followed by secondary injury from immune responses to ischemic brain components. Here we demonstrate that peripheral CD11b+CD45+ myeloid cells magnify stroke injury via activation of triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 1 (TREM1), an amplifier of proinflammatory innate immune responses. TREM1 was induced within hours after stroke peripherally in CD11b+CD45+ cells trafficking to ischemic brain. TREM1 inhibition genetically or pharmacologically improved outcome via protective antioxidant and anti-inflammatory mechanisms. Positron electron tomography imaging using radiolabeled antibody recognizing TREM1 revealed elevated TREM1 expression in spleen and, unexpectedly, in intestine. In the lamina propria, noradrenergic-dependent increases in gut permeability induced TREM1 on inflammatory Ly6C+MHCII+ macrophages, further increasing epithelial permeability and facilitating bacterial translocation across the gut barrier. Thus, following stroke, peripheral TREM1 induction amplifies proinflammatory responses to both brain-derived and intestinal-derived immunogenic components. Critically, targeting this specific innate immune pathway reduces cerebral injury.

Organ aging signatures in the plasma proteome track health and disease.

Animal studies show aging varies between individuals as well as between organs within an individual1-4, but whether this is true in humans and its effect on age-related diseases is unknown. We utilized levels of human blood plasma proteins originating from specific organs to measure organ-specific aging differences in living individuals. Using machine learning models, we analysed aging in 11 major organs and estimated organ age reproducibly in five independent cohorts encompassing 5,676 adults across the human lifespan. We discovered nearly 20% of the population show strongly accelerated age in one organ and 1.7% are multi-organ agers. Accelerated organ aging confers 20-50% higher mortality risk, and organ-specific diseases relate to faster aging of those organs. We find individuals with accelerated heart aging have a 250% increased heart failure risk and accelerated brain and vascular aging predict Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression independently from and as strongly as plasma pTau-181 (ref. 5), the current best blood-based biomarker for AD. Our models link vascular calcification, extracellular matrix alterations and synaptic protein shedding to early cognitive decline. We introduce a simple and interpretable method to study organ aging using plasma proteomics data, predicting diseases and aging effects.

Plasma pTau181 Reveals a Pathological Signature that Predicts Cognitive Outcomes in Lewy Body Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether plasma phosphorylated-Tau181 (pTau181) could be used as a diagnostic biomarker of concurrent Alzheimer's disease neuropathologic change (ADNC) or amyloidosis alone, as well as a prognostic, monitoring, and susceptibility/risk biomarker for clinical outcomes in Lewy body disease (LBD). METHODS: We studied 565 participants: 94 LBD with normal cognition, 83 LBD with abnormal cognition, 114 with Alzheimer's disease, and 274 cognitively normal. Plasma pTau181 levels were measured with the Lumipulse G platform. Diagnostic accuracy for concurrent ADNC and amyloidosis was assessed with Receiver Operating Characteristic curves in a subset of participants with CSF pTau181/Aß42, and CSF Aß42/Aß40 or amyloid-ß PET, respectively. Linear mixed effects models were used to examine the associations between baseline and longitudinal plasma pTau181 levels and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Plasma pTau181 predicted concurrent ADNC and amyloidosis in LBD with abnormal cognition with 87% and 72% accuracy, respectively. In LBD patients with abnormal cognition, higher baseline plasma pTau181 was associated with worse baseline MoCA and CDR-SB, as well as accelerated decline in CDR-SB. Additionally, in this group, rapid increases in plasma pTau181 over 3 years predicted a faster decline in CDR-SB and memory. In LBD patients with normal cognition, there was no association between baseline or longitudinal plasma pTau181 levels and clinical outcomes; however, elevated pTau181 at baseline increased the risk of conversion to cognitive impairment. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that plasma pTau181 is a promising biomarker for concurrent ADNC and amyloidosis in LBD. Furthermore, plasma pTau181 holds potential as a prognostic, monitoring, and susceptibility/risk biomarker, predicting disease progression in LBD. ANN NEUROL 2024.

Post-translational modifications linked to preclinical Alzheimer's disease-related pathological and cognitive changes.

INTRODUCTION: In this study, we leverage proteomic techniques to identify communities of proteins underlying Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk among clinically unimpaired (CU) older adults. METHODS: We constructed a protein co-expression network using 3869 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) proteins quantified by SomaLogic, Inc., in a cohort of participants along the AD clinical spectrum. We then replicated this network in an independent cohort of CU older adults and related these modules to clinically-relevant outcomes. RESULTS: We discovered modules enriched for phosphorylation and ubiquitination that were associated with abnormal amyloid status, as well as p-tau181 (M4: ß = 2.44, p < 0.001, M7: ß = 2.57, p < 0.001) and executive function performance (M4: ß = -2.00, p = 0.005, M7: ß = -2.39, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: In leveraging CSF proteomic data from individuals spanning the clinical spectrum of AD, we highlight the importance of post-translational modifications for early cognitive and pathological changes.

Biogeography and evolution of social parasitism in Australian Myrmecia bulldog ants revealed by phylogenomics.

Studying the historical biogeography and life history transitions from eusocial colony life to social parasitism contributes to our understanding of the evolutionary mechanisms generating biodiversity in eusocial insects. The ants in the genus Myrmecia are a well-suited system for testing evolutionary hypotheses about how their species diversity was assembled through time because the genus is endemic to Australia with the single exception of the species M. apicalis inhabiting the Pacific Island of New Caledonia, and because at least one social parasite species exists in the genus. However, the evolutionary mechanisms underlying the disjunct biogeographic distribution of M. apicalis and the life history transition(s) to social parasitism remain unexplored. To study the biogeographic origin of the isolated, oceanic species M. apicalis and to reveal the origin and evolution of social parasitism in the genus, we reconstructed a comprehensive phylogeny of the ant subfamily Myrmeciinae. We utilized Ultra Conserved Elements (UCEs) as molecular markers to generate a molecular genetic dataset consisting of 2,287 loci per taxon on average for 66 out of the 93 known Myrmecia species as well as for the sister lineage Nothomyrmecia macrops and selected outgroups. Our time-calibrated phylogeny inferred that: (i) stem Myrmeciinae originated during the Paleocene âˆ¼ 58 Ma ago; (ii) the current disjunct biogeographic distribution of M. apicalis was driven by long-distance dispersal from Australia to New Caledonia during the Miocene âˆ¼ 14 Ma ago; (iii) the single social parasite species, M. inquilina, evolved directly from one of the two known host species, M. nigriceps, in sympatry via the intraspecific route of social parasite evolution; and (iv) 5 of the 9 previously established taxonomic species groups are non-monophyletic. We suggest minor changes to reconcile the molecular phylogenetic results with the taxonomic classification. Our study enhances our understanding of the evolution and biogeography of Australian bulldog ants, contributes to our knowledge about the evolution of social parasitism in ants, and provides a solid phylogenetic foundation for future inquiries into the biology, taxonomy, and classification of Myrmeciinae.

α-Synuclein Seed Amplification in CSF and Brain from Patients with Different Brain Distributions of Pathological α-Synuclein in the Context of Co-Pathology and Non-LBD Diagnoses.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of α-synuclein seed amplification assay (αSyn-SAA) in antemortem and postmortem cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of autopsy-confirmed patients with different distributions of pathological αSyn, co-pathologies, and clinical diagnoses. METHODS: The αSyn-SAA was used to test antemortem CSF samples from 119 subjects with a variety of clinical syndromes and standardized neuropathological examinations from Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU) and University of California San Diego (UCSD; 56 additional postmortem CSF samples available). The αSyn-SAA was also applied to frontal cortex and amygdala homogenates. Sensitivity and specificity were compared across distributions of αSyn pathology. Clinical data and co-pathologies were compared across αSyn-SAA positive and negative groups. RESULTS: Fifty-three individuals without and 66 with αSyn-pathology (neocortical [n = 38], limbic [n = 7], and amygdala-predominant [n = 21]) were included. There was a sensitivity of 97.8% and specificity of 98.1% of the αSyn-SAA to identify patients with limbic/neocortical pathology from antemortem CSF. Sensitivity to detect amygdala-predominant pathology was only 14.3%. Postmortem CSF and brain tissue αSyn-SAA analyses also showed higher assay positivity in samples from limbic/neocortical cases. INTERPRETATION: CSF αSyn-SAA reliably identifies αSyn seeds in patients with diffuse αSyn pathology in the context of co-pathology and non-Lewy body disease (LBD) diagnoses. The analysis of brain homogenates suggests that pathological αSyn in the amygdala might differ from pathological αSyn in the frontal cortex. The αSyn-SAA might facilitate the differential diagnosis of dementias with mixed pathologies. ANN NEUROL 2022;92:650-662.

Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards - Value of Information (CHEERS-VOI): Explanation and Elaboration.

OBJECTIVES: Although the ISPOR Value of Information (VOI) Task Force's reports outline VOI concepts and provide good-practice recommendations, there is no guidance for reporting VOI analyses. VOI analyses are usually performed alongside economic evaluations for which the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) 2022 Statement provides reporting guidelines. Thus, we developed the CHEERS-VOI checklist to provide reporting guidance and checklist to support the transparent, reproducible, and high-quality reporting of VOI analyses. METHODS: A comprehensive literature review generated a list of 26 candidate reporting items. These candidate items underwent a Delphi procedure with Delphi participants through 3 survey rounds. Participants rated each item on a 9-point Likert scale to indicate its relevance when reporting the minimal, essential information about VOI methods and provided comments. The Delphi results were reviewed at 2-day consensus meetings and the checklist was finalized using anonymous voting. RESULTS: We had 30, 25, and 24 Delphi respondents in rounds 1, 2, and 3, respectively. After incorporating revisions recommended by the Delphi participants, all 26 candidate items proceeded to the 2-day consensus meetings. The final CHEERS-VOI checklist includes all CHEERS items, but 7 items require elaboration when reporting VOI. Further, 6 new items were added to report information relevant only to VOI (eg, VOI methods applied). CONCLUSIONS: The CHEERS-VOI checklist should be used when a VOI analysis is performed alongside economic evaluations. The CHEERS-VOI checklist will help decision makers, analysts and peer reviewers in the assessment and interpretation of VOI analyses and thereby increase transparency and rigor in decision making.

PGE2 signaling via the neuronal EP2 receptor increases injury in a model of cerebral ischemia.

The inflammatory prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) EP2 receptor is a master suppressor of beneficial microglial function, and myeloid EP2 signaling ablation reduces pathology in models of inflammatory neurodegeneration. Here, we investigated the role of PGE2 EP2 signaling in a model of stroke in which the initial cerebral ischemic event is followed by an extended poststroke inflammatory response. Myeloid lineage cell-specific EP2 knockdown in Cd11bCre;EP2lox/lox mice attenuated brain infiltration of Cd11b+CD45hi macrophages and CD45+Ly6Ghi neutrophils, indicating that inflammatory EP2 signaling participates in the poststroke immune response. Inducible global deletion of the EP2 receptor in adult ROSA26-CreERT2 (ROSACreER);EP2lox/lox mice also reduced brain myeloid cell trafficking but additionally reduced stroke severity, suggesting that nonimmune EP2 receptor-expressing cell types contribute to cerebral injury. EP2 receptor expression was highly induced in neurons in the ischemic hemisphere, and postnatal deletion of the neuronal EP2 receptor in Thy1Cre;EP2lox/lox mice reduced cerebral ischemic injury. These findings diverge from previous studies of congenitally null EP2 receptor mice where a global deletion increases cerebral ischemic injury. Moreover, ROSACreER;EP2lox/lox mice, unlike EP2-/- mice, exhibited normal learning and memory, suggesting a confounding effect from congenital EP2 receptor deletion. Taken together with a precedent that inhibition of EP2 signaling is protective in inflammatory neurodegeneration, these data lend support to translational approaches targeting the EP2 receptor to reduce inflammation and neuronal injury that occur after stroke.

Late Pregnancy Ultrasound to Screen for and Manage Potential Birth Complications in Nulliparous Women: A Cost-Effectiveness and Value of Information Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Fetal growth restriction is a major risk factor for stillbirth. A routine late-pregnancy ultrasound scan could help detect this, allowing intervention to reduce the risk of stillbirth. Such a scan could also detect fetal presentation and predict macrosomia. A trial powered to detect stillbirth differences would be extremely large and expensive. OBJECTIVES: It is therefore critical to know whether this would be a good investment of public research funds. The aim of this study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various late-pregnancy screening and management strategies based on current information and predict the return on investment from further research. METHODS: Synthesis of current evidence structured into a decision model reporting expected costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and net benefit over 20 years and value-of-information analysis reporting predicted return on investment from future clinical trials. RESULTS: Given a willingness to pay of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the most cost-effective strategy is a routine presentation-only scan for all women. Universal ultrasound screening for fetal size is unlikely to be cost-effective. Research exploring the cost implications of induction of labor has the greatest predicted return on investment. A randomized, controlled trial with an endpoint of stillbirth is extremely unlikely to be a value for money investment. CONCLUSION: Given current value-for-money thresholds in the United Kingdom, the most cost-effective strategy is to offer all pregnant women a presentation-only scan in late pregnancy. A randomized, controlled trial of screening and intervention to reduce the risk of stillbirth following universal ultrasound to detect macrosomia or fetal growth restriction is unlikely to represent a value for money investment.

Content of Health Economics Analysis Plans (HEAPs) for Trial-Based Economic Evaluations: Expert Delphi Consensus Survey.

OBJECTIVES: Health economics analysis plans (HEAPs) currently lack consistency, with uncertainty surrounding appropriate content. We aimed to develop a list of essential items that should be included in HEAPs for economic evaluations conducted alongside randomized trials. METHODS: A list of potential items for inclusion was developed by examining existing HEAPs. An electronic Delphi survey was conducted among professional health economists. Respondents were asked to rate potential items from 1 (least important) to 9 (most important), suggest additional items, and comment on proposed items (round 1). A second survey (round 2) was emailed to participants, including the participant's own scores from round 1 along with summary results from the whole panel; participants were asked to rerate each item. Consensus criteria for inclusion in the final list were predefined as >70% of participants rating an item 7-9 and <15% rating it 1-3 after round 2. A final item selection meeting was held to scrutinize the results and adjudicate on items lacking consensus. RESULTS: 62 participants completed round 1 of the survey. The initial list included 72 potential items; all 72 were carried forward to round 2, and no new items were added. 48 round 1 respondents (77.4%) completed round 2 and reached consensus on 53 items. At the final meeting, the expert panel (n = 9) agreed that 58 items should be included in the essential list, moved 9 items to an optional list, and dropped 5 items. CONCLUSIONS: Via expert consensus opinion, this study identified 58 items that are considered essential in a HEAP.

Soluble TREM2 is elevated in Parkinson's disease subgroups with increased CSF tau.

Parkinson's disease is the second most common neurodegenerative disease after Alzheimer's disease and affects 1% of the population above 60 years old. Although Parkinson's disease commonly manifests with motor symptoms, a majority of patients with Parkinson's disease subsequently develop cognitive impairment, which often progresses to dementia, a major cause of morbidity and disability. Parkinson's disease is characterized by α-synuclein accumulation that frequently associates with amyloid-ß and tau fibrils, the hallmarks of Alzheimer's disease neuropathological changes; this co-occurrence suggests that onset of cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease may be associated with appearance of pathological amyloid-ß and/or tau. Recent studies have highlighted the appearance of the soluble form of the triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells 2 (sTREM2) receptor in CSF during development of Alzheimer's disease. Given the known association of microglial activation with advancing Parkinson's disease, we investigated whether CSF and/or plasma sTREM2 differed between CSF biomarker-defined Parkinson's disease participant subgroups. In this cross-sectional study, we examined 165 participants consisting of 17 cognitively normal elderly subjects, 45 patients with Parkinson's disease with no cognitive impairment, 86 with mild cognitive impairment, and 17 with dementia. Stratification of subjects by CSF amyloid-ß and tau levels revealed that CSF sTREM2 concentrations were elevated in Parkinson's disease subgroups with a positive tau CSF biomarker signature, but not in Parkinson's disease subgroups with a positive CSF amyloid-ß biomarker signature. These findings indicate that CSF sTREM2 could serve as a surrogate immune biomarker of neuronal injury in Parkinson's disease.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the GoActive intervention to increase physical activity among UK adolescents: A cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Less than 20% of adolescents globally meet recommended levels of physical activity, and not meeting these recommended levels is associated with social disadvantage and rising disease risk. The determinants of physical activity in adolescents are multilevel and poorly understood, but the school's social environment likely plays an important role. We conducted a cluster randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of a school-based programme (GoActive) to increase moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among adolescents. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Non-fee-paying, co-educational schools including Year 9 students in the UK counties of Cambridgeshire and Essex were eligible for inclusion. Within participating schools (n = 16), all Year 9 students were eligible and invited to participate. Participants were 2,862 13- to 14-year-olds (84% of eligible students). After baseline assessment, schools were computer-randomised, stratified by school-level pupil premium funding (below/above county-specific median) and county (control: 8 schools, 1,319 participants, mean [SD] participants per school n = 165 [62]; intervention: 8 schools, 1,543 participants, n = 193 [43]). Measurement staff were blinded to allocation. The iteratively developed, feasibility-tested 12-week intervention, aligned with self-determination theory, trained older adolescent mentors and in-class peer-leaders to encourage classes to conduct 2 new weekly activities. Students and classes gained points and rewards for engaging in any activity in or out of school. The primary outcome was average daily minutes of accelerometer-assessed MVPA at 10-month follow-up; a mixed-methods process evaluation evaluated implementation. Of 2,862 recruited participants (52.1% male), 2,167 (76%) attended 10-month follow-up measurements; we analysed the primary outcome for 1,874 participants (65.5%). At 10 months, there was a mean (SD) decrease in MVPA of 8.3 (19.3) minutes in the control group and 10.4 (22.7) minutes in the intervention group (baseline-adjusted difference [95% confidence interval] -1.91 minutes [-5.53 to 1.70], p = 0.316). The programme cost £13 per student compared with control; it was not cost-effective. Overall, 62.9% of students and 87.3% of mentors reported that GoActive was fun. Teachers and mentors commented that their roles in programme delivery were unclear. Implementation fidelity was low. The main methodological limitation of this study was the relatively affluent and ethnically homogeneous sample. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that a rigorously developed school-based intervention was no more effective than standard school practice at preventing declines in adolescent physical activity. Interdisciplinary research is required to understand educational-setting-specific implementation challenges. School leaders and authorities should be realistic about expectations of the effect of school-based physical activity promotion strategies implemented at scale. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN31583496.

Evaluation of a very brief pedometer-based physical activity intervention delivered in NHS Health Checks in England: The VBI randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The majority of people do not achieve recommended levels of physical activity. There is a need for effective, scalable interventions to promote activity. Self-monitoring by pedometer is a potentially suitable strategy. We assessed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a very brief (5-minute) pedometer-based intervention ('Step It Up') delivered as part of National Health Service (NHS) Health Checks in primary care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Very Brief Intervention (VBI) Trial was a two parallel-group, randomised controlled trial (RCT) with 3-month follow-up, conducted in 23 primary care practices in the East of England. Participants were 1,007 healthy adults aged 40 to 74 years eligible for an NHS Health Check. They were randomly allocated (1:1) using a web-based tool between October 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015, to either intervention (505) or control group (502), stratified by primary care practice. Participants were aware of study group allocation. Control participants received the NHS Health Check only. Intervention participants additionally received Step It Up: a 5-minute face-to-face discussion, written materials, pedometer, and step chart. The primary outcome was accelerometer-based physical activity volume at 3-month follow-up adjusted for sex, 5-year age group, and general practice. Secondary outcomes included time spent in different intensities of physical activity, self-reported physical activity, and economic measures. We conducted an in-depth fidelity assessment on a subsample of Health Check consultations. Participants' mean age was 56 years, two-thirds were female, they were predominantly white, and two-thirds were in paid employment. The primary outcome was available in 859 (85.3%) participants. There was no significant between-group difference in activity volume at 3 months (adjusted intervention effect 8.8 counts per minute [cpm]; 95% CI -18.7 to 36.3; p = 0.53). We found no significant between-group differences in the secondary outcomes of step counts per day, time spent in moderate or vigorous activity, time spent in vigorous activity, and time spent in moderate-intensity activity (accelerometer-derived variables); as well as in total physical activity, home-based activity, work-based activity, leisure-based activity, commuting physical activity, and screen or TV time (self-reported physical activity variables). Of the 505 intervention participants, 491 (97%) received the Step it Up intervention. Analysis of 37 intervention consultations showed that 60% of Step it Up components were delivered faithfully. The intervention cost £18.04 per participant. Incremental cost to the NHS per 1,000-step increase per day was £96 and to society was £239. Adverse events were reported by 5 intervention participants (of which 2 were serious) and 5 control participants (of which 2 were serious). The study's limitations include a participation rate of 16% and low return of audiotapes by practices for fidelity assessment. CONCLUSIONS: In this large well-conducted trial, we found no evidence of effect of a plausible very brief pedometer intervention embedded in NHS Health Checks on objectively measured activity at 3-month follow-up. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN72691150).

Computing the Expected Value of Sample Information Efficiently: Practical Guidance and Recommendations for Four Model-Based Methods.

Value of information (VOI) analyses can help policy makers make informed decisions about whether to conduct and how to design future studies. Historically a computationally expensive method to compute the expected value of sample information (EVSI) restricted the use of VOI to simple decision models and study designs. Recently, 4 EVSI approximation methods have made such analyses more feasible and accessible. Members of the Collaborative Network for Value of Information (ConVOI) compared the inputs, the analyst's expertise and skills, and the software required for the 4 recently developed EVSI approximation methods. Our report provides practical guidance and recommendations to help inform the choice between the 4 efficient EVSI estimation methods. More specifically, this report provides: (1) a step-by-step guide to the methods' use, (2) the expertise and skills required to implement the methods, and (3) method recommendations based on the features of decision-analytic problems.

The general form of Hamilton's rule makes no predictions and cannot be tested empirically.

Hamilton's rule asserts that a trait is favored by natural selection if the benefit to others, [Formula: see text], multiplied by relatedness, [Formula: see text], exceeds the cost to self, [Formula: see text] Specifically, Hamilton's rule states that the change in average trait value in a population is proportional to [Formula: see text] This rule is commonly believed to be a natural law making important predictions in biology, and its influence has spread from evolutionary biology to other fields including the social sciences. Whereas many feel that Hamilton's rule provides valuable intuition, there is disagreement even among experts as to how the quantities [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text] should be defined for a given system. Here, we investigate a widely endorsed formulation of Hamilton's rule, which is said to be as general as natural selection itself. We show that, in this formulation, Hamilton's rule does not make predictions and cannot be tested empirically. It turns out that the parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] depend on the change in average trait value and therefore cannot predict that change. In this formulation, which has been called "exact and general" by its proponents, Hamilton's rule can "predict" only the data that have already been given.

Screening for breech presentation using universal late-pregnancy ultrasonography: A prospective cohort study and cost effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the relative ease with which breech presentation can be identified through ultrasound screening, the assessment of foetal presentation at term is often based on clinical examination only. Due to limitations in this approach, many women present in labour with an undiagnosed breech presentation, with increased risk of foetal morbidity and mortality. This study sought to determine the cost effectiveness of universal ultrasound scanning for breech presentation near term (36 weeks of gestational age [wkGA]) in nulliparous women. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Pregnancy Outcome Prediction (POP) study was a prospective cohort study between January 14, 2008 and July 31, 2012, including 3,879 nulliparous women who attended for a research screening ultrasound examination at 36 wkGA. Foetal presentation was assessed and compared for the groups with and without a clinically indicated ultrasound. Where breech presentation was detected, an external cephalic version (ECV) was routinely offered. If the ECV was unsuccessful or not performed, the women were offered either planned cesarean section at 39 weeks or attempted vaginal breech delivery. To compare the likelihood of different mode of deliveries and associated long-term health outcomes for universal ultrasound to current practice, a probabilistic economic simulation model was constructed. Parameter values were obtained from the POP study, and costs were mainly obtained from the English National Health Service (NHS). One hundred seventy-nine out of 3,879 women (4.6%) were diagnosed with breech presentation at 36 weeks. For most women (96), there had been no prior suspicion of noncephalic presentation. ECV was attempted for 84 (46.9%) women and was successful in 12 (success rate: 14.3%). Overall, 19 of the 179 women delivered vaginally (10.6%), 110 delivered by elective cesarean section (ELCS) (61.5%) and 50 delivered by emergency cesarean section (EMCS) (27.9%). There were no women with undiagnosed breech presentation in labour in the entire cohort. On average, 40 scans were needed per detection of a previously undiagnosed breech presentation. The economic analysis indicated that, compared to current practice, universal late-pregnancy ultrasound would identify around 14,826 otherwise undiagnosed breech presentations across England annually. It would also reduce EMCS and vaginal breech deliveries by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points, respectively: around 4,196 and 6,061 deliveries across England annually. Universal ultrasound would also prevent 7.89 neonatal mortalities annually. The strategy would be cost effective if foetal presentation could be assessed for £19.80 or less per woman. Limitations to this study included that foetal presentation was revealed to all women and that the health economic analysis may be altered by parity. CONCLUSIONS: According to our estimates, universal late pregnancy ultrasound in nulliparous women (1) would virtually eliminate undiagnosed breech presentation, (2) would be expected to reduce foetal mortality in breech presentation, and (3) would be cost effective if foetal presentation could be assessed for less than £19.80 per woman.

Prognostic factors for response to treatment by corticosteroid injection or surgery in carpal tunnel syndrome (palms study): A prospective multicenter cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Studies of prognosis for surgery and corticosteroid injection for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) have considered only a limited range of explanatory variables for outcome. METHODS: Data were prospectively collected on patient-reported symptoms, physical and psychological functioning, comorbidity, and quality of life at baseline and every 6 months for up to 2 years. Outcomes were patient-rated change over a 6-month period and symptom-severity score at 18 months. RESULTS: In total, 754 patients with CTS completed baseline questionnaires, and 626 (83%) completed follow-up to 18 months. Multivariable modeling identified, independent of symptom severity at outset, higher health utility, fewer comorbidities, and lower anxiety as significant predictors of better outcome from surgery. In patients treated by steroid injection, independent of symptom severity at outset, shorter duration of symptoms and having no prior injection were significant predictors of better outcome. DISCUSSION: These multivariable models of outcome may inform shared decision making about treatment for CTS. Muscle Nerve, 2019.

Expert Elicitation to Inform a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for Renal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Population screening for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) using ultrasound has the potential to improve survival outcomes; however, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) has yet to be performed. Owing to the lack of existing evidence, we performed structured expert elicitation to derive unknown quantities to inform the CEA. OBJECTIVE: To elicit the cancer stage distribution (proportion of individuals with each stage of cancer) for different RCC screening scenarios and the annual transition probabilities for undiagnosed disease becoming diagnosed in the National Health Service. METHODS: The study design and reporting adhered to the Reporting Guidelines for the Use of Expert Judgement in Model-Based Economic Evaluations. The elicitation was conducted face-to-face or via telephone between each individual expert and the facilitator, aided by online material. For multinomial data, Connor-Mosimann and modified Connor-Mosimann distributions were fitted for each expert and for all experts combined using mathematical linear pooling. RESULTS: A total of 24 clinical experts were invited, and 71% participated (7 urologists, 6 oncologists, 4 radiologists). The modified Connor-Mosimann distribution provided the best fit for most elicited quantities. Greater uncertainty was noted for the elicited transition probabilities compared with the elicited stage distributions. CONCLUSION: We performed the first expert elicitation of RCC screening parameters, crucial information that will inform the CEA of screening. In addition, the elicited quantities may enable future health economic evaluations assessing the value of diagnostic tools and pathways in RCC.

Does self-monitoring and self-management of blood pressure after stroke or transient ischemic attack improve control? TEST-BP, a randomized controlled trial.

The therapeutic benefit of self-monitoring blood pressure in stroke patients is uncertain. We investigated the effect of self-monitoring with or without guided antihypertensive management compared with usual care in patients with a recent cerebrovascular event. No between-group differences in blood pressure at outcome were found, but blood pressure self-monitoring and management was well tolerated.