Deep Learning of Biological Models from Data: Applications to ODE Models.

Mathematical equations are often used to model biological processes. However, for many systems, determining analytically the underlying equations is highly challenging due to the complexity and unknown factors involved in the biological processes. In this work, we present a numerical procedure to discover dynamical physical laws behind biological data. The method utilizes deep learning methods based on neural networks, particularly residual networks. It is also based on recently developed mathematical tools of flow-map learning for dynamical systems. We demonstrate that with the proposed method, one can accurately construct numerical biological models for unknown governing equations behind measurement data. Moreover, the deep learning model can also incorporate unknown parameters in the biological process. A successfully trained deep neural network model can then be used as a predictive tool to produce system predictions of different settings and allows one to conduct detailed analysis of the underlying biological process. In this paper, we use three biological models-SEIR model, Morris-Lecar model and the Hodgkin-Huxley model-to show the capability of our proposed method.

Parameter uncertainty quantification using surrogate models applied to a spatial model of yeast mating polarization.

A common challenge in systems biology is quantifying the effects of unknown parameters and estimating parameter values from data. For many systems, this task is computationally intractable due to expensive model evaluations and large numbers of parameters. In this work, we investigate a new method for performing sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of complex biological models using techniques from uncertainty quantification. The primary advance is a significant improvement in computational efficiency from the replacement of model simulation by evaluation of a polynomial surrogate model. We demonstrate the method on two models of mating in budding yeast: a smaller ODE model of the heterotrimeric G-protein cycle, and a larger spatial model of pheromone-induced cell polarization. A small number of model simulations are used to fit the polynomial surrogates, which are then used to calculate global parameter sensitivities. The surrogate models also allow rapid Bayesian inference of the parameters via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) by eliminating model simulations at each step. Application to the ODE model shows results consistent with published single-point estimates for the model and data, with the added benefit of calculating the correlations between pairs of parameters. On the larger PDE model, the surrogate models allowed convergence for the distribution of 15 parameters, which otherwise would have been computationally prohibitive using simulations at each MCMC step. We inferred parameter distributions that in certain cases peaked at values different from published values, and showed that a wide range of parameters would permit polarization in the model. Strikingly our results suggested different diffusion constants for active versus inactive Cdc42 to achieve good polarization, which is consistent with experimental observations in another yeast species S. pombe.

INTERACTIVE VISUALIZATION OF PROBABILITY AND CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTIONS.

The probability density function (PDF), and its corresponding cumulative density function (CDF), provide direct statistical insight into the characterization of a random process or field. Typically displayed as a histogram, one can infer probabilities of the occurrence of particular events. When examining a field over some two-dimensional domain in which at each point a PDF of the function values is available, it is challenging to assess the global (stochastic) features present within the field. In this paper, we present a visualization system that allows the user to examine two-dimensional data sets in which PDF (or CDF) information is available at any position within the domain. The tool provides a contour display showing the normed difference between the PDFs and an ansatz PDF selected by the user and, furthermore, allows the user to interactively examine the PDF at any particular position. Canonical examples of the tool are provided to help guide the reader into the mapping of stochastic information to visual cues along with a description of the use of the tool for examining data generated from an uncertainty quantification exercise accomplished within the field of electrophysiology.

Stochastic Markovian modeling of electrophysiology of ion channels: reconstruction of standard deviations in macroscopic currents.

Markovian models of ion channels have proven useful in the reconstruction of experimental data and prediction of cellular electrophysiology. We present the stochastic Galerkin method as an alternative to Monte Carlo and other stochastic methods for assessing the impact of uncertain rate coefficients on the predictions of Markovian ion channel models. We extend and study two different ion channel models: a simple model with only a single open and a closed state and a detailed model of the cardiac rapidly activating delayed rectifier potassium current. We demonstrate the efficacy of stochastic Galerkin methods for computing solutions to systems with random model parameters. Our studies illustrate the characteristic changes in distributions of state transitions and electrical currents through ion channels due to random rate coefficients. Furthermore, the studies indicate the applicability of the stochastic Galerkin technique for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of bio-mathematical models.