Chronic Viral Hepatitis B and C Outweigh MASLD in the Associated Risk of Cirrhosis and HCC.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) on the development of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or C infection and antiviral treatment statuses is not well-known. METHODS: A total of 336,866 adults aged ≥30 years were prospectively enrolled in a health screening program between 1997-2013. MASLD was identified by abdominal ultrasonography and cardiometabolic profiles. Data linkage was performed using 3 nationwide databases-National Health Insurance, Cancer Registry, and Death Certification System-to obtain information on antiviral treatment, vital status, and newly diagnosed cirrhosis and HCC. Follow-up was conducted until December 31, 2019. RESULTS: In the total population, 122,669 (36.4%) had MASLD. Over a mean follow-up of 15 years, 5562 new cases of cirrhosis and 2273 new cases of HCC were diagnosed. Although MASLD significantly increased the cumulative risks of cirrhosis or HCC (P < .0001), the associated risk was more pronounced when comparing CHB or C infection with the presence of MASLD. Stratifying the participants based on their MASLD and CHB or C statuses, hazard ratios (HRadj) with 95% confidence intervals for HCC were 8.81 (7.83-9.92) for non-steatotic liver disease (SLD) with CHB or C, 1.52 (1.32-1.74) for MASLD without CHB or C, and 8.86 (7.76-10.12) for MASLD with CHB or C, compared with non-SLD without CHB or C (all P < .0001). Among CHB or C patients who received antivirals during follow-up, MASLD was associated with increased risks of cirrhosis and HCC, with HRadj of 1.23 (1.01-1.49) and 1.32 (1.05-1.65), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings underscore the need to prioritize treatment of chronic viral hepatitis before addressing MASLD.

Long-term Risks of Cirrhosis and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Across Steatotic Liver Disease Subtypes.

INTRODUCTION: The prospective study aimed to investigate the long-term associated risks of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) across various subtypes of steatotic liver disease (SLD). METHODS: We enrolled 332,175 adults who participated in a health screening program between 1997 and 2013. Participants were categorized into various subtypes, including metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD), MASLD with excessive alcohol consumption (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), based on ultrasonography findings, alcohol consumption patterns, and cardiometabolic risk factors. We used computerized data linkage with nationwide registries from 1997 to 2019 to ascertain the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 16 years, 4,458 cases of cirrhosis and 1,392 cases of HCC occurred in the entire cohort, resulting in an incidence rate of 86.1 and 26.8 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. The ALD group exhibited the highest incidence rate for cirrhosis and HCC, followed by MetALD, MASLD, and non-SLD groups. The multivariate adjusted hazard ratios for HCC were 1.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-2.44), 2.91 (95% CI 2.11-4.03), and 2.59 (95% CI 1.93-3.48) for MASLD, MetALD, and ALD, respectively, when compared with non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors. The pattern of the associated risk of cirrhosis was similar to that of HCC (all P value <0.001). The associated risk of cirrhosis for ALD increased to 4.74 (95% CI 4.08-5.52) when using non-SLD without cardiometabolic risk factors as a reference. DISCUSSION: This study highlights elevated risks of cirrhosis and HCC across various subtypes of SLD compared with non-SLD, emphasizing the importance of behavioral modifications for early prevention.

Exposure to PM2.5 Metal Constituents and Liver Cancer Risk in REVEAL-HBV.

BACKGROUND: Ambient particulate matter is classified as a human Class 1 carcinogen, and recent studies found a positive relationship between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and liver cancer. Nevertheless, little is known about which specific metal constituent contributes to the development of liver cancer. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of long-term exposure to metal constituents in PM2.5 with the risk of liver cancer using a Taiwanese cohort study. METHODS: A total of 13,511 Taiwanese participants were recruited from the REVEAL-HBV in 1991-1992. Participants' long-term exposure to eight metal constituents (Ba, Cu, Mn, Sb, Zn, Pb, Ni, and Cd) in PM2.5 was based on ambient measurement in 2002-2006 followed by a land-use regression model for spatial interpolation. We ascertained newly developed liver cancer (ie, hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) through data linkage with the Taiwan Cancer Registry and national health death certification in 1991-2014. A Cox proportional hazards model was utilized to assess the association between exposure to PM2.5 metal component and HCC. RESULTS: We identified 322 newly developed HCC with a median follow-up of 23.1 years. Long-term exposure to PM2.5 Cu was positively associated with a risk of liver cancer. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.13 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.25; P = 0.023) with one unit increment on Cu normalized by PM2.5 mass concentration in the logarithmic scale. The PM2.5 Cu-HCC association remained statistically significant with adjustment for co-exposures to other metal constituents in PM2.5. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest PM2.5 containing Cu may attribute to the association of PM2.5 exposure with liver cancer.

Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Spontaneous Clearance of Hepatitis C Virus and in Noncirrhosis Chronic Hepatitis C Patients With Sustained Virological Response: A Systematic Review.

In a hepatitis C virus (HCV)-controlled human infection model (CHIM), healthy volunteers are inoculated with HCV and then treated. Residual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk after viral clearance is an important consideration when evaluating the CHIM. We estimate HCC risk in spontaneously cleared HCV and in noncirrhosis after sustained virological response (SVR) to HCV treatment in a systematic review and using data from 3 cohorts: German anti-D, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs (VA). For noncirrhosis SVR, the overall HCC rate is 0.33 per 100 patient-years in meta-analysis. HCC rates for the German, Taiwan, and US Veterans Affairs cohorts are 0, 0.14, and 0.02 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Past hepatitis B virus exposure was not accounted for in the Taiwan cohort, while VA patients were likely tested based on liver disease/risk factors, which may confound HCC outcomes. The German cohort with no HCC after 44 years is most comparable to the CHIM participants. Although it is difficult to precisely estimate HCC risk from an HCV CHIM, the data suggest the risk to be very low or negligible.

Biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in the REVEAL-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohort studies.

Gut barrier dysfunction can result in the liver being exposed to an elevated level of gut-derived bacterial products via portal circulation. Growing evidence suggests that systemic exposure to these bacterial products promotes liver diseases including hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, prospective studies have not examined the association between biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction and HCC risk in a population of hepatitis B or C viral (HBV/HCV) carriers. We investigated whether prediagnostic, circulating biomarkers of gut barrier dysfunction were associated with HCC risk, using the Risk Evaluation of Viral Load Elevation and Associated Liver Disease/Cancer (REVEAL)-HBV and REVEAL-HCV cohorts from Taiwan. REVEAL-HBV included 185 cases and 161 matched controls, and REVEAL-HCV 96 cases and 96 matched controls. The biomarkers quantitated were immunoglobulin A (IgA), IgG, and IgM against lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and flagellin, soluble CD14 (an LPS coreceptor), and LPS-binding protein (LBP). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between biomarker levels and HCC were calculated using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression. A doubling of the circulating levels of antiflagellin IgA or LBP was associated with a 76% to 93% increased risk of HBV-related HCC (OR per one unit change in log2 antiflagellin IgA = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.06-2.93; OR for LBP = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.10-3.38). None of the other markers were associated with an increased risk of HBV-related or HCV-related HCC. Results were similar when cases diagnosed in the first 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Our findings contribute to understanding the interplay of gut barrier dysfunction and primary liver cancer etiology.

Serum HBcrAg and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Taiwanese Population Seronegative for HBsAg and Anti-HCV.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a surrogate seromarker of intrahepatic hepatitis B virus covalently closed circular DNA quantity and activity and a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B patients. We assess association between HBcrAg and HCC in individuals seronegative for hepatitis B surface antigen and anti-hepatitis C virus (NBNC) in Taiwan. METHODS: A total of 129 newly developed HCC cases and 520 frequency-matched non-HCC controls were drawn from the REVEAL-NBNC cohort. Serum HBcrAg and other risk factors measured at recruitment were compared between cases and controls. Regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The proportion of baseline HBcrAg positivity (≥1000 U/mL) was significantly higher in HCC cases than in controls (12.4% vs 1.4%, P < .001). In multivariate analysis, HBcrAg positivity was associated with significantly higher risk of HCC (adjusted OR [95% CI]: 9.3 [3.3-26.4]; P < .001]. The HCC population attributable to HBcrAg positivity was 11.1% (95% CI: 9.7%-12.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Seropositivity of HBcrAg might identify a subset of the NBNC population at higher risk of HCC in hepatitis B virus endemic areas.

Natural History and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Patients With Indeterminate Phase.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Many patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may not conform to any of the defined phases and hence are classified as indeterminate. We aimed to characterize the baseline prevalence of indeterminate patients and their natural history, phase transition, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 3366 adult untreated noncirrhotic CHB patients seen at 5 US clinics and 7 Taiwanese townships who had at least 1 year of serial laboratory data before enrollment with a mean follow-up period of 12.5 years. Patients' clinical phases were determined at baseline and through serial data during follow-up evaluation, based on the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases 2018 guidance. RESULTS: At baseline, 1303 (38.7%) patients were in the indeterminate phase. By up to year 10 of follow-up evaluation, 686 patients (52.7%) remained indeterminate, while 283 patients (21.7%) became immune active. Compared with patients who remained inactive, patients who remained indeterminate had a higher 10-year cumulative HCC incidence (4.6% vs 0.5%; P < .0001) and adjusted hazard ratio for HCC of 14.1 (P = .03). Among patients who remained indeterminate, age 45 years and older (adjusted hazard ratio, 18.4; P = .005) was associated independently with HCC development. CONCLUSIONS: Nearly 40% of patients had indeterminate CHB phase. Of these, half remained indeterminate and one-fifth transitioned to the immune active phase. HCC risk in persistently indeterminate CHB was 14 times higher than inactive CHB. Among persistently indeterminate CHB patients, age 45 years and older was associated with an 18 times higher risk for HCC development. Further studies are needed to evaluate the potential benefit of antiviral therapy for indeterminate patients, especially in the older subgroup.

Comparative Performance of 14 HCC Prediction Models in CHB: A Dynamic Validation at Serial On-Treatment Timepoints.

INTRODUCTION: To assess comparative performance of 14 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients using on-treatment values at different timepoints. METHODS: Based on a nationwide prospective cohort of 986 treatment-naive CHB patients undergoing entecavir therapy with every 26-week follow-up, 14 HCC risk scores were calculated using on-treatment values at week 26, 52, 78, and 104, respectively. Model performance predicting 3-year HCC was assessed using time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration index. Model cutoffs were validated through common diagnostic accuracy measures. RESULTS: During median 4.7-year follow-up, 56 (7.5%) developed HCC. Discrimination using on-treatment values within first 2 years was generally acceptable for most models (AUCs ranging from 0.68 to 0.81), except for REACH-B, NGM-HCC, and PAGE-B, although AUCs slightly decreased from week 26 to 104. Of these, REAL-B, CAMD, GAG-HCC, AASL-HCC, LSM-HCC, mPAGE-B, and mREACH-BII showed highest discrimination with AUCs ranging from 0.76 to 0.81, 0.72 to 0.76, 0.70 to 0.76, and 0.71 to 0.74 when reassessment at week 26, 52, 78, and 104, respectively. With reassessment within first 2 years, both REAL-B and CAMD calibrated well (Brier score ranging from 0.037 to 0.052). Of 9 models reporting cutoffs, REAL-B, AASL-HCC, and mPAGE-B using on-treatment values could identify 30%-40% of patients as low risk with minimal HCC incidence in the low-risk group (0.40% [REAL-B]-1.56% [mPAGE-B]). DISCUSSION: In this undergoing antiviral treatment CHB cohort, most HCC prediction models performed well even using on-treatment values during first 2 years, particularly REAL-B, AASL-HCC, CAMD, and mPAGE-B model.

The association between sPD-1 levels versus liver biochemistry and viral markers in chronic hepatitis B patients: a comparative study of different sPD-1 assays.

BACKGROUND: Soluble programmed death-1 (sPD-1) is a novel immune markers and possibly predictive of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) outcome. However, results were inconsistent by different ELISA kits. This study aims to compare the characteristics and correlations with other markers for sPD-1 measured by MyBioSource (MB) and R&D (RD) kits. METHODS: A total of 254 untreated CHB patients from three sites were assayed with sPD-1 by MB and RD kits at the same time. Spearman's correlations between the kits, and those with viral markers and ALT levels were calculated. Multivariate linear regression analysis was applied for independent factors associated with the sPD-1 levels. RESULTS: There's no correlation between sPD-1 level using MB and RD assays. sPD-1 by MB correlated profoundly with HBsAg (r = 0.8311, P < 0.0001), HBV DNA (r = 0.3896, P < 0.0001), and ALT levels (r = 0.1604, P = 0.0105) while an opposite trend by RD kit (r = - 0.0644, P = 0.3109; r = 0.2554, P < 0.0001; r = 0.4417, P < 0.0001, respectively for the 3 markers). In the multivariate linear regression analysis, HBsAg and ALT levels was the major factor associated with sPD-1 levels by MB and RD, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The characteristics and correlations with host/viral markers of sPD-1 by the two kits are different and leading to different associations on clinical outcomes of CHB.

A switch from tenofovir to entecavir prior to hepatitis B treatment cessation is associated with a reduced risk of off-therapy relapse: An observational study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In HBeAg negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, clinical relapse (CR) occurs more frequently, much earlier and often more severely after stopping tenofovir (TDF) and other nucleos(t)ide analogues (Nucs) than after stopping entecavir (ETV). It is unknown whether off-Nuc hepatitis flare can be alleviated by switching from one Nuc to another. METHODS: HBeAg-negative CHB patients who had stopped Nuc according to the APASL stopping rule and had been followed-up for > 48 weeks after Nuc cessation were recruited. Patients were classified as four groups: ETV monotherapy (mono-ETV), TDF monotherapy (mono-TDF), switched to ETV (switch-ETV), and switched to TDF (switch-TDF). Both switch groups had switched to the replacement Nuc > 12 weeks prior to end of therapy. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to minimize confounders among groups. Cox regression analysis was used to identify risks factors for off-Nuc CR and flares. RESULTS: A total of 1309 patients (1022 mono-ETV, 219 mono-TDF, 40 switch-ETV and 28 switch-TDF) were enrolled. The median time to CR was 39, 13, 38 and 14 weeks in mono-ETV, mono-TDF, switch-ETV and switch-TDF respectively (P < 0.001). After PSM, the mono-ETV (adjusted HR: 0.39, P < 0.001) and switch-ETV patients (adjusted HR: 0.41, P = 0.003) had both significantly later occurrence and lower rates of CR and flare. CONCLUSION: In summary, the incidence and timing of CR was determined by ETV or TDF in the last 3 months prior to end of treatment. Patients treated with non-ETV-Nuc switched to ETV > 12 weeks before end of the original Nuc therapy may reduce/defer CR.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Liver Cirrhosis Prediction in Untreated and Treated Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can progress to cirrhosis, but there are limited noninvasive tools available to estimate cirrhosis risk, including in patients receiving antiviral therapy. This study developed and validated a simple model to assess risk in CHB patients. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 3000 CHB patients from 6 centers in the United States, with 52.60% receiving antiviral therapy. External validation was performed for 4552 CHB individuals from similar cohorts in Taiwan, with 21.27% receiving therapy. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to screen predictors and develop the risk score for cirrhosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated for predictive value. RESULTS: Sex, age, diabetes, antiviral treatment status/duration, hepatitis B e-antigen, and baseline alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase levels were significantly associated with increased cirrhosis risk. A 13-point risk score was developed based on these predictors. The AUROCs for predicting cirrhosis risk were 0.82 at 3 years, 0.85 at 5 years, and 0.89 at 10 years in the derivation cohort, and 0.82, 0.79, and 0.77 in the validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a simple cirrhosis prediction model with an independent external cohort that can be applied to both treatment-naive and treatment-experienced CHB patients in diverse settings and locations.

Association Between Fatty Liver and Cirrhosis, Hepatocellular Carcinoma, and Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Seroclearance in Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and fatty liver (FL) are common, natural history data on concurrent FL and CHB (FL-CHB) are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of FL on cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance incidence in CHB patients. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study of 6786 adult CHB patients, we used propensity score matching (PSM) to balance the FL-CHB and non-FL CHB groups. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to compare cumulative cirrhosis, HCC, and HBsAg seroclearance rates between subgroups. RESULTS: Before PSM, compared to non-FL CHB, FL-CHB patients had lower 10-year cumulative rates of cirrhosis, HCC, and a higher HBsAg seroclearance rate. Similar results were found in the matched FL-CHB and non-FL CHB patients, as well as in the antiviral-treated PSM cohort. Cox proportional hazards model indicated FL to remain significantly and strongly associated with lower risk of cirrhosis and HCC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.19 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .12-.33], P < .001 and HR, 0.21 [95% CI, .09-.51], P = .001, respectively) in antiviral-treated patients but not in untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: FL was significantly associated with lower cirrhosis and HCC risk and higher HBsAg seroclearance. Further studies are needed to confirm our funding and investigate the mechanisms underlying the impact of FL on CHB.

HLA Zygosity Increases Risk of Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Diversity in the HLA genes might be associated with disease outcomes-the heterozygote advantage hypothesis. We tested this hypothesis in relation to hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: We utilized DNA from > 10 000 Taiwanese individuals with current or past HBV infection to examine the association between HLA diversity and critical natural history steps in the progression from HBV infection to HCC. Individuals were classified as homozygotes at a given locus when imputed to carry the same 4-digit allele for the 2 HLA alleles at that locus. RESULTS: Increase in number of homozygous HLA class II loci was associated with an increased risk of chronic HBV infection (Ptrend = 1.18 × 10-7). Among chronic HBV carriers, increase in number of homozygous HLA class II loci was also associated with an increased risk of HBV-associated HCC (Ptrend = .031). For individual HLA loci, HLA-DQB1 homozygosity was significantly associated with HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.84). We also found that zygosity affects risk of HCC through its ability to affect viral control. CONCLUSIONS: Homozygosity at HLA class II loci, particularly HLA-DQB1, is associated with a higher risk of HBV-associated HCC.

Application of Risk Scores for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: Current Status and Future Perspective.

Accurate risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may guide treatment strategies including initiation of antiviral therapy and also inform implementation of HCC surveillance. There have been 26 risk scores developed to predict HCC in CHB patients with (n = 14) or without (n = 12) receiving antiviral treatment; all of them invariably include age in the scoring formula. Virological biomarkers of replicative activities (i.e., hepatitis B virus DNA level or hepatitis B envelope antigen status) are frequently included in the scores derived from patients with untreated CHB, whereas measurements that gauge severity of liver fibrosis and/or reserve of hepatic function (i.e., cirrhosis diagnosis, liver stiffness measurement, platelet count, or albumin) are essential components in the scores developed from treated patients. External validation is a prerequisite for clinical application but not yet performed for all scores. For the future, higher predictive accuracy may be achieved with machine learning based on more comprehensive data.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Systematic Review of 14 Models and External Validation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of our study was to characterize the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients through meta-analysis followed by external validation. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of current literature, followed by external validation in independent multi-center cohort with 986 patients with CHB undergoing entecavir treatment (median follow-up: 4.7 years). Model performance to predict HCC within 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration index. Subgroup analysis were conducted by treatment status, cirrhotic, race and baseline alanine aminotransferase. RESULTS: We identified 14 models with 123,885 patients (5,452 HCC cases), with REACH-B, CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models being broadly externally validated. Discrimination was generally acceptable for all models, with pooled AUC ranging from 0.70 (95% CI, 0.63-0.76 for REACH-B) to 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.87 for REAL-B) for 3-year, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73 for REACH-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85 for REAL-B) for 5-year and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58-0.80 for PAGE-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84 for REAL-B and 0.77-0.86 for AASL-HCC) for 10-year prediction. However, calibration performance was poorly reported in most studies. In external validation cohort, REAL-B showed highest discrimination with 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.83) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.81) for 3 and 5-year prediction. The REAL-B model was also well calibrated in the external validation cohort (3-year Brier score 0.066). Results were consistent in subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In a systematic review of available HCC models, the REAL-B model exhibited best discrimination and calibration.

Hepatitis B Core-Related Antigen to Indicate High Viral Load: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 10,397 Individual Participants.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To eliminate hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, scale-up of testing and treatment in resource-limited countries is crucial. However, access to nucleic acid testing to quantify HBV DNA, an essential test to examine treatment eligibility, remains severely limited. We assessed the performance of a novel immunoassay, HBV core-related antigen (HBcrAg), as a low-cost (less than US $15/assay) alternative to nucleic acid testing to indicate clinically important high viremia in chronic HBV patients infected with different genotypes. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases through June 27, 2018. Three reviewers independently selected studies measuring HBV DNA and HBcrAg in the same blood samples. We contacted authors to provide individual participant data (IPD). We randomly allocated each IPD to a derivation or validation cohort. We applied optimal HBcrAg cut-off values derived from the derivation set to the validation set to estimate sensitivity/specificity. RESULTS: Of 74 eligible studies, IPD were obtained successfully for 60 studies (81%). Meta-analysis included 5591 IPD without antiviral therapy and 4806 treated with antivirals. In untreated patients, the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and optimal cut-off values were as follows: 0.88 (95% CI, 0.83-0.94) and 3.6 log U/mL to diagnose HBV DNA level of 2000 IU/mL or greater; and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.94-0.98) and 5.3 log U/mL for 200,000 IU/mL or greater, respectively. In the validation set, the sensitivity and specificity were 85.2% and 84.7% to diagnose HBV DNA level of 2000 IU/mL or greater, and 91.8% and 90.5% for 200,000 IU/mL or greater, respectively. The performance did not vary by HBV genotypes. In patients treated with anti-HBV therapy the correlation between HBcrAg and HBV DNA was poor. CONCLUSIONS: HBcrAg might be a useful serologic marker to indicate clinically important high viremia in treatment-naïve, HBV-infected patients.

Genetic variants associated with serum alanine aminotransferase levels among patients with hepatitis C virus infection: A genome-wide association study.

Information on genetic variants associated with elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels remains limited. A genome-wide association study was performed to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with ALT levels. The ALT-associated SNP was further evaluated for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. A cohort of 892 anti-HCV seropositive patients was used for genome-wide SNP array to examine the associations with baseline ALT levels. SNPs <10-5 were further tested for associations with serial ALT levels then validated in 486 anti-HCV seropositives. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals of SNPs associated with ALT. The SNP was evaluated for HCC risk by using Cox's proportional hazards models. After quality control, 803 participants with 564,464 SNPs were included in the analysis. Of these, 12 SNPs were associated with ALT (p < 10-5 ). Among the participants, 158 (19.7%) had ALT persistently ≤15 U/L, 327 (40.7%) ever >15 U/L but never >45 U/L, and 318 (39.6%) ever >45 U/L during follow-up. The rs568800 was associated with serial ALT levels, and this was replicated in the external population significantly (p < .05). The A allele (vs C) of rs568800 was associated with ALT >15 U/L but ≤45 U/L and ALT >45 U/L, with the adjusted ORs of 1.41 (1.11-1.78) and 1.86 (1.34-2.60), respectively. The adjusted HRs for HCC were 2.09 (0.90-4.89) for AC and 2.64 (1.13-6.17) for AA (CC as a reference). In conclusion, the rs568800 was associated with serum ALT levels and HCC risk. Clinical utility should be evaluated among patients who have received antivirals.

Epidemiology of Virus Infection and Human Cancer.

Seven viruses including the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), Kaposi's sarcoma herpes virus (KSHV), human immunodeficiency virus, type-1 (HIV-1), human T cell lymphotrophic virus, type-1 (HTLV-1), and human papillomavirus (HPV) have been classified as Group 1 human carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). The conclusions are based on the findings of epidemiological and mechanistic studies. EBV, HPV, HTLV-1, and KSHV are direct carcinogens; HBV and HCV are indirect carcinogens through chronic inflammation; and HIV-1 is an indirect carcinogen through immune suppression. Some viruses may cause more than one cancer, while some cancers may be caused by more than one virus. However, only a proportion of persons infected by these oncogenic viruses will develop specific cancers. A series of studies have been carried out to assess the viral, host, and environmental cofactors of EBV-associated nasopharyngeal carcinoma, HBV/HCV-associated hepatocellular carcinoma, and HPV-associated cervical carcinoma. Persistent infection, high viral load, and viral genotype are important risk predictors of these virus-caused cancers. Risk calculators incorporating host and viral risk predictors have been developed for the prediction of long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, nasopharyngeal carcinoma and cervical cancer. These risk calculators are useful for the triage and clinical management of infected patients. Both clinical trials and national programs of immunization, antiviral therapy and screening have demonstrated a significant reduction in the incidence of cancers caused by HBV, HCV, and HPV. Future research on gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of oncogenic viruses and the human host using large-scale longitudinal studies with serial measurements of biosignatures are in urgent need.

Association Between Traffic Count and Cardiovascular Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to traffic-related pollution is positively associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD), but little is known about how different sources of traffic pollution (eg, gasoline-powered cars, diesel-engine vehicles) contribute to CVD. Therefore, we evaluated the association between exposure to different types of engine exhaust and CVD mortality. METHODS: We recruited 12,098 participants from REVEAL-HBV cohort in Taiwan. The CVD mortality in 2000-2014 was ascertained by the Taiwan Death Certificates. Traffic pollution sources (2005-2013) were based on information provided by the Directorate General of Highway in 2005. Exposure to PM2.5 was based on a land-use regression model. We applied Cox proportional hazard models to assess the association of traffic vehicle exposure and CVD mortality. A causal mediation analysis was applied to evaluate the mediation effect of PM2.5 on the relationship between traffic and CVD mortality. RESULTS: A total of 382 CVD mortalities were identified from 2000 to 2014. We found participants exposed to higher volumes of small car and truck exhausts had an increased CVD mortality. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.10 for small cars (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-1.27; P-value = 0.23) and 1.24 for truck (95% CI, 1.03-1.51; P-value = 0.03) per one unit increment of the logarithm scale. The findings were still robust with further adjustment for different types of vehicles. A causal mediation analysis revealed PM2.5 had an over 60% mediation effect on traffic-CVD association. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to exhaust from trucks or gasoline-powered cars is positively associated with CVD mortality, and air pollution may play a role in this association.

Real-World Effectiveness From the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV Risk Score for the Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated With Oral Antiviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Patients on oral antiviral (OAV) therapy remain at hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk. Risk prediction tools distinguishing treated patients with residual HCC risk are limited. The aim of this study was to develop an accurate, precise, simple-to-use HCC risk score using routine clinical variables among a treated Asian cohort. METHODS: Adult Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients on OAV were recruited from 25 centers in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. Excluded persons were coinfected with hepatitis C, D, or human immunodeficiency virus, had HCC before or within 1 year of study entry, or their follow-up was <1 year. Patients were randomized to derivation and validation cohorts on a 2:1 ratio. Statistically significant predictors from multivariate modeling formed the Real-world Effectiveness from the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV (REAL-B) score. RESULTS: A total of 8048 patients were randomized to the derivation (n = 5365) or validation group (n = 2683). The REAL-B model included 7 variables (male gender, age, alcohol use, diabetes, baseline cirrhosis, platelet count, and alpha fetoprotein), and scores were categorized as follows: 0-3 low risk, 4-7 moderate risk, and 8-13 high risk. Area under receiver operating characteristics were >0.80 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, and these were significantly higher than other risk models (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The REAL-B score provides 3 distinct risk categories for HCC development in Asian CHB patients on OAV guiding HCC surveillance strategy.