Interactions between abiotic constraint, propagule pressure, and biotic resistance regulate plant invasion.

With multiple species introductions and rapid global changes, there is a need for comprehensive invasion models that can predict community responses. Evidence suggests that abiotic constraint, propagule pressure, and biotic resistance of resident species each determine plant invasion success, yet their interactions are rarely tested. To understand these interactions, we conducted community assembly experiments simulating situations in which seeds of the invasive grass species Phragmites australis (Poaceae) land on bare soil along with seeds of resident wetland plant species. We used structural equation models to measure both direct abiotic constraint (here moist vs. flooded conditions) on invasion success and indirect constraint on the abundance and, therefore, biotic resistance of resident plant species. We also evaluated how propagule supply of P. australis interacts with the biotic resistance of resident species during invasion. We observed that flooding always directly reduced invasion success but had a synergistic or antagonistic effect on biotic resistance depending on the resident species involved. Biotic resistance of the most diverse resident species mixture remained strong even when abiotic conditions changed. Biotic resistance was also extremely effective under low propagule pressure of the invader. Moreover, the presence of a dense resident plant cover appeared to lower the threshold at which invasion success became stable even when propagule supply increased. Our study not only provides an analytical framework to quantify the effect of multiple interactions relevant to community assembly and species invasion, but it also proposes guidelines for innovative invasion management strategies based on a sound understanding of ecological processes.

Balancing shifting cultivation and forest conservation: lessons from a "sustainable landscape" in southeastern Mexico.

Shifting cultivation is often perceived to be a threat to forests, but it is also central to the culture and livelihoods of millions of people worldwide. Balancing agriculture and forest conservation requires knowledge of how agricultural land uses evolve in landscapes with forest conservation initiatives. Based on a case study from Quintana Roo, Mexico, and remote sensing data, we investigated land use and land cover change (LUCC) in relation to accessibility (from main settlement and road) in search of evidence for agricultural expansion and/or intensification after the initiation of a community forestry program in 1986. Intensification was through a shortening of the fallow period. Defining the sampling space as a function of human needs and accessibility to agricultural resources was critical to ensure a user-centered perspective of the landscape. The composition of the accessible landscape changed substantially between 1976 and 1997. Over the 21-year period studied, the local population saw the accessible landscape transformed from a heterogeneous array of different successional stages including mature forests to a landscape dominated by young fallows. We detected a dynamic characterized by intensification of shifting cultivation in the most accessible areas with milpas being felled more and more from young fallows in spite of a preference for felling secondary forests. We argue that the resulting landscape provides a poorer resource base for sustaining agricultural livelihoods and discuss ways in which agricultural change could be better addressed through participatory land use planning. Balancing agricultural production and forest conservation will become even more important in a context of intense negotiations for carbon credits, an emerging market that is likely to drive future land changes worldwide.

Pollination and reproduction of a self-incompatible forest herb in hedgerow corridors and forest patches.

Habitat-corridors are assumed to counteract the negative impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation, but their efficiency in doing so depends on the maintenance of ecological processes in corridor conditions. For plants dispersing in linear habitats, one of these critical processes is the maintenance of adequate pollen transfer to insure seed production within the corridor. This study focuses on a common, self-incompatible forest herb, Trillium grandiflorum, to assess plant-pollinator interactions and the influence of spatial processes on plant reproduction in hedgerow corridors compared to forests. First, using pollen supplementation experiments over 2 years, we quantified the extent of pollen limitation in both habitats, testing the prediction of greater limitation in small hedgerow populations than in forests. While pollen limitation of fruit and seed set was common, its magnitude did not differ between habitats. Variations among sites, however, suggested an influence of landscape context on pollination services. Second, we examined the effect of isolation on plant reproduction by monitoring fruit and seed production, as well as pollinator activity and assemblage, in small flower arrays transplanted in hedgerows at increasing distances from forest and from each other. We detected no difference in the proportion of flowers setting fruit or in pollinator activity with isolation, but we observed some differences in pollinator assemblages. Seed set, on the other hand, declined significantly with increasing isolation in the second year of the study, but not in the first year, suggesting altered pollen transfer with distance. Overall, plants in hedgerow corridors and forests benefited from similar pollination services. In this system, plant-pollinator interactions and reproduction seem to be influenced more by variations in resource distribution over years and landscapes than by local habitat conditions.

Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates.

The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Beyond a climate-centric view of plant distribution: edaphic variables add value to distribution models.

Both climatic and edaphic conditions determine plant distribution, however many species distribution models do not include edaphic variables especially over large geographical extent. Using an exceptional database of vegetation plots (n = 4839) covering an extent of ∼55,000 km2, we tested whether the inclusion of fine scale edaphic variables would improve model predictions of plant distribution compared to models using only climate predictors. We also tested how well these edaphic variables could predict distribution on their own, to evaluate the assumption that at large extents, distribution is governed largely by climate. We also hypothesized that the relative contribution of edaphic and climatic data would vary among species depending on their growth forms and biogeographical attributes within the study area. We modelled 128 native plant species from diverse taxa using four statistical model types and three sets of abiotic predictors: climate, edaphic, and edaphic-climate. Model predictive accuracy and variable importance were compared among these models and for species' characteristics describing growth form, range boundaries within the study area, and prevalence. For many species both the climate-only and edaphic-only models performed well, however the edaphic-climate models generally performed best. The three sets of predictors differed in the spatial information provided about habitat suitability, with climate models able to distinguish range edges, but edaphic models able to better distinguish within-range variation. Model predictive accuracy was generally lower for species without a range boundary within the study area and for common species, but these effects were buffered by including both edaphic and climatic predictors. The relative importance of edaphic and climatic variables varied with growth forms, with trees being more related to climate whereas lower growth forms were more related to edaphic conditions. Our study identifies the potential for non-climate aspects of the environment to pose a constraint to range expansion under climate change.

Moving from a regional to a continental perspective of Phragmites australis invasion in North America.

AIMS: We use a regional comparison of Phragmites australis (common reed) subsp. americanus, P. australis subsp. berlandieri and introduced P. australis (possibly five sublineages) in the Chesapeake Bay, the St Lawrence River, Utah and the Gulf Coast to inform a North American perspective on P. australis invasion patterns, drivers, impacts and research needs. FINDINGS AND RESEARCH NEEDS: Our regional assessments reveal substantial diversity within and between the three main lineages of P. australis in terms of mode of reproduction and the types of environment occupied. For introduced P. australis, the timing of introduction also differed between the regions. Nevertheless, a common finding in these regions reinforces the notion that introduced P. australis is opportunistic and thrives in disturbed habitats. Thus, we expect to see substantial expansion of introduced P. australis with increasing anthropogenic disturbances in each of these regions. Although there have been some studies documenting the negative impacts of introduced P. australis, it also plays a beneficial role in some regions, and in some cases, the purported negative impacts are unproven. There is also a broader need to clarify the genetic and ecological relationships between the different introduced sublineages observed in North America, and their relative competitive ability and potential for admixture. This may be done through regional studies that use similar methodologies and share results to uncover common patterns and processes. To our knowledge, such studies have not been performed on P. australis in spite of the broad attention given to this species. Such research could advance theoretical knowledge on biological invasion by helping to determine the extent to which the patterns observed can be generalized or are sublineage specific or region specific. SYNTHESIS: Given what appears to be sometimes idiosyncratic invasion patterns when interpreted in isolation in the regions that we analysed, it may be time to consider initiatives on a continental (if not intercontinental) scale to tackle unresolved issues about P. australis.

Herbaceous covers to control tree invasion in rights-of-way: ecological concepts and applications.

In northeastern America, thousands of kilometers of utility rights-of-way (ROWs) have to be managed to prevent the establishment of a tall vegetation cover that does not comply with safety and maintenance regulations. Recent decades have seen the emergence of ecologically based vegetation control strategies to reduce environmental impacts as well as maintenance costs. One such strategy is to take advantage of competitive herbaceous covers to limit tree invasion. This approach, however, as well as its fundamental underlying principles, has been little scrutinized. In this article, (1) we present the main ecological concepts supporting the use of a herbaceous cover to limit tree invasion, emphasizing naturally forested ecosystems of northeastern America. They include reported evidence of stable plant communities and an overview of potential underlying mechanisms of inhibition. (2) We then review field applications, specifically testing the ability of seeded herbaceous covers to control tree invasion in ROWs. (3) We discuss unresolved issues relevant to management and research. The available evidence suggests that seeding herbaceous covers in ROWs can help control tree invasion, but many issues still limit broad-scale applications. The various interactions that govern plant community dynamics are far from being fully understood, so selecting species still largely depends on an empirical approach. Patterns of resistance to tree invasion must be investigated over a wide range of spatial, historical, and environmental contexts to determine effective management and seeding practices that will lead to broad-scale applications. We suggest establishing communities rather than single dominant species and using as much as possible native species to limit risks of invasion.