Development and evaluation of regression tree models for predicting in-hospital mortality of a national registry of COVID-19 patients over six pandemic surges.

BACKGROUND: Objective prognostic information is essential for good clinical decision making. In case of unknown diseases, scarcity of evidence and limited tacit knowledge prevent obtaining this information. Prediction models can be useful, but need to be not only evaluated on how well they predict, but also how stable these models are under fast changing circumstances with respect to development of the disease and the corresponding clinical response. This study aims to provide interpretable and actionable insights, particularly for clinicians. We developed and evaluated two regression tree predictive models for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patient at admission and 24 hours (24 h) after admission, using a national registry. We performed a retrospective analysis of observational routinely collected data. METHODS: Two regression tree models were developed for admission and 24 h after admission. The complexity of the trees was managed via cross validation to prevent overfitting. The predictive ability of the model was assessed via bootstrapping using the Area under the Receiver-Operating-Characteristic curve, Brier score and calibration curves. The tree models were assessed on the stability of their probabilities and predictive ability, on the selected variables, and compared to a full-fledged logistic regression model that uses variable selection and variable transformations using splines. Participants included COVID-19 patients from all ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) registry, who were admitted at the ICU between February 27, 2020, and November 23, 2021. From the NICE registry, we included concerned demographic data, minimum and maximum values of physiological data in the first 24 h of ICU admission and diagnoses (reason for admission as well as comorbidities) for model development. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. We additionally analysed the Length-of-Stay (LoS) per patient subgroup per survival status. RESULTS: A total of 13,369 confirmed COVID-19 patients from 70 ICUs were included (with mortality rate of 28%). The optimism-corrected AUROC of the admission tree (with seven paths) was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71-0.74) and of the 24 h tree (with 11 paths) was 0.74 (0.74-0.77). Both regression trees yielded good calibration and variable selection for both trees was stable. Patient subgroups comprising the tree paths had comparable survival probabilities as the full-fledged logistic regression model, survival probabilities were stable over six COVID-19 surges, and subgroups were shown to have added predictive value over the individual patient variables. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and evaluated regression trees, which operate at par with a carefully crafted logistic regression model. The trees consist of homogenous subgroups of patients that are described by simple interpretable constraints on patient characteristics thereby facilitating shared decision-making.

Nitrogen-Phosphorus-Potassium containing liquid fertilizer intoxication presenting with extreme hyperkalemia, metabolic acidosis and ECG changes.

Liquid fertilizers are widely used for fertilizing in- and outdoor vegetation. Despite the easy accessibility and widespread use, serious intoxications are rare. This case report describes a 61-year-old woman who was treated for life-threatening hyperkalemia, metabolic acidosis and ECG changes after intentional ingestion of liquid fertilizer. Our case shows that intake of liquid fertilizer, though infrequent, can cause serious, life threatening complications.

The effect of ICU-tailored drug-drug interaction alerts on medication prescribing and monitoring: protocol for a cluster randomized stepped-wedge trial.

BACKGROUND: Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) can cause patient harm. Between 46 and 90% of patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) are exposed to potential DDIs (pDDIs). This rate is twice as high as patients on general wards. Clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) have shown their potential to prevent pDDIs. However, the literature shows that there is considerable room for improvement of CDSSs, in particular by increasing the clinical relevance of the pDDI alerts they generate and thereby reducing alert fatigue. However, consensus on which pDDIs are clinically relevant in the ICU setting is lacking. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of alerts based on only clinically relevant interactions for the ICU setting on the prevention of pDDIs among Dutch ICUs. METHODS: To define the clinically relevant pDDIs, we will follow a rigorous two-step Delphi procedure in which a national expert panel will assess which pDDIs are perceived clinically relevant for the Dutch ICU setting. The intervention is the CDSS that generates alerts based on the clinically relevant pDDIs. The intervention will be evaluated in a stepped-wedge trial. A total of 12 Dutch adult ICUs using the same patient data management system, in which the CDSS will operate, were invited to participate in the trial. Of the 12 ICUs, 9 agreed to participate and will be enrolled in the trial. Our primary outcome measure is the incidence of clinically relevant pDDIs per 1000 medication administrations. DISCUSSION: This study will identify pDDIs relevant for the ICU setting. It will also enhance our understanding of the effectiveness of alerts confined to clinically relevant pDDIs. Both of these contributions can facilitate the successful implementation of CDSSs in the ICU and in other domains as well. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Nederlands Trial register Identifier: NL6762 . Registered November 26, 2018.

Attitudes of physicians towards the care of critically ill elderly patients - a European survey.

BACKGROUND: Very elderly patients are one of the fastest growing population in ICUs worldwide. There are lots of controversies regarding admission, discharge of critically ill elderly patients, and also on treatment intensity during the ICU stay. As a consequence, practices vary considerably from one ICU to another. In that perspective, we collected opinions of experienced ICU physicians across Europe on statements focusing on patients older than 80. METHODS: We sent an online questionnaire to the coordinator ICU physician of all participating ICUs of an recent European, observational study of Very old critically Ill Patients (VIP1 study). This questionnaire contained 12 statements about admission, triage, treatment and discharge of patients older than 80. RESULTS: We received answers from 162 ICUs (52% of VIP1-study) spanning 20 different European countries. There were major disagreements between ICUs. Responders disagree that: there is clear evidence that ICU admission is beneficial (37%); seeking relatives' opinion is mandatory (17%); written triage guidelines must be available either at the hospital or ICU level (20%); level of care should be reduced (25%); a consultation of a geriatrician should be sought (34%) and a geriatrician should be part of the post-ICU trail (11%). The percentage of disagreement varies between statements and European regions. CONCLUSION: There are major differences in the attitude of European ICU physicians on the admission, triage and treatment policies of patients older than 80 emphasizing the lack of consensus and poor level of evidence for most of the statements and outlining the need for future interventional studies.

Pharmacokinetics of Anidulafungin in Critically Ill Intensive Care Unit Patients with Suspected or Proven Invasive Fungal Infections.

Echinocandins, such as anidulafungin, are the first-line treatment for candidemia or invasive candidiasis in critically ill patients. There are conflicting data on the pharmacokinetic properties of anidulafungin in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Adult ICU patients (from 3 hospitals) receiving anidulafungin for suspected or proven fungal infections were included in the present study. Patients were considered evaluable if a pharmacokinetic curve for day 3 could be completed. Twenty-three of 36 patients (7 female and 16 male) were evaluable. The median (range) age and body weight were 66 (28 to 88) years and 76 (50 to 115) kg, respectively. Pharmacokinetic sampling on day 3 (n = 23) resulted in a median anidulafungin area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h (AUC0-24) of 72.1 (interquartile range [IQR], 61.3 to 94.0) mg · h · liter-1, a median daily trough concentration (C24) of 2.2 (IQR, 1.9 to 2.9) mg/liter, a median maximum concentration of drug in serum (Cmax) of 5.3 (IQR, 4.1 to 6.0) mg/liter, a median volume of distribution (V) of 46.0 (IQR, 32.2 to 60.2) liters, and a median clearance (CL) of 1.4 (IQR, 1.1 to 1.6) liters · h-1 Pharmacokinetic sampling on day 7 (n = 13) resulted in a median AUC0-24 of 82.7 (IQR, 73.0 to 129.5) mg · h · liter-1, a median minimum concentration of drug in serum (Cmin) of 2.8 (IQR, 2.2 to 4.2) mg/liter, a median Cmax of 5.9 (IQR, 4.6 to 8.0) mg/liter, a median V of 39.7 (IQR, 32.2 to 54.4) liters, and a median CL of 1.2 (IQR, 0.8 to 1.4) liters · h-1 The geometric mean ratio for the AUCday7/AUCday3 term was 1.13 (90% confidence interval [CI], 1.03 to 1.25). The exposure in the ICU patient population was in accordance with previous reports on anidulafungin pharmacokinetics in ICU patients but was lower than that for healthy volunteers or other patient populations. Larger cohorts of patients or pooled data analyses are necessary to retrieve relevant covariates. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT01438216.).

High tacrolimus blood concentrations early after lung transplantation and the risk of kidney injury.

PURPOSE: Lung transplant recipients often develop acute kidney injury (AKI) evolving into chronic kidney disease (CKD). The immunosuppressant tacrolimus might be associated with the emergence of AKI. We analyzed the development and recovery of kidney injury after lung transplantation and related AKI to whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations and other factors causing kidney injury. METHODS: We retrospectively studied kidney injury in 186 lung-transplantation patients at the UMC Utrecht between 2001 and 2011. Kidney function and whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations were determined from day 1 to 14 and at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months postoperative. Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), septic shock, and nephrotoxic medications were evaluated as covariates for AKI. We analyzed liver injury and drug-drug interactions. RESULTS: AKI was present in 85 (46%) patients. Tacrolimus concentrations were supra-therapeutic in 135 of 186 patients (73%). AKI in the first week after transplantation was related to supra-therapeutic tacrolimus concentrations (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.06-2.27), ≥3 other nephrotoxic drugs (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.02-3.77), infection (OR 2.48; 95% CI 1.31-4.70), and cystic fibrosis (OR 2.17; 95% CI 1.16-4.06). Recovery rate of AKI was lower than expected (19%), and the cumulative incidence of severe CKD at 1 year was 15%. CONCLUSIONS: After lung transplantation, AKI is common and often evolves into severe CKD, which is a known cause of morbidity and mortality. Supra-therapeutic whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations are related to the early onset of AKI. Conscientious targeting tacrolimus blood concentrations might be vital in the early phase after lung transplantation. What is known about this subject? • Lung transplant recipients often develop acute kidney injury evolving into chronic kidney disease increasing both morbidity and mortality. • To date, the pathophysiology of kidney injury after lung transplantation has not been fully elucidated. • The immunosuppressant tacrolimus is difficult to dose, especially in the unstable clinical setting, and is nephrotoxic. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: • For the first time, supra-therapeutic whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations are related to the emergence of acute kidney injury in the first days after lung transplantation. • Supra-therapeutic whole-blood tacrolimus trough concentrations often occur early after lung transplantation. • AKI after lung transplantation shows low recovery rates.

Pharmacokinetics of caspofungin in ICU patients.

OBJECTIVES: Caspofungin is used for treatment of invasive fungal infections. As the pharmacokinetics (PK) of antimicrobial agents in critically ill patients can be highly variable, we set out to explore caspofungin PK in ICU patients. METHODS: ICU patients receiving caspofungin were eligible. Patients received a loading dose of 70 mg followed by 50 mg daily (70 mg if body weight >80 kg); they were evaluable upon completion of the first PK curve at day 3. Additionally, daily trough samples were taken and a second PK curve was recorded at day 7. PK analysis was performed using a standard two-stage approach. RESULTS: Twenty-one patients were evaluable. Median (range) age and body weight were 71 (45-80) years and 75 (50-99) kg. PK sampling on day 3 (n = 21) resulted in the following median (IQR) parameters: AUC0-24 88.7 (72.2-97.5) mg·h/L; Cmin 2.15 (1.40-2.48) mg/L; Cmax 7.51 (6.05-8.17) mg/L; V 7.72 (6.12-9.01) L; and CL 0.57 (0.54-0.77) L/h. PK sampling on day 7 (n = 13) resulted in AUC0-24 107.2 (90.4-125.3) mg·h/L, Cmin 2.55 (1.82-3.08) mg/L, Cmax 8.65 (7.16-9.34) mg/L, V 7.03 (5.51-7.73) L and CL 0.54 (0.44-0.60) L/h. We did not identify any covariates significantly affecting caspofungin PK in ICU patients (e.g. body weight, albumin, liver function). Caspofungin was well tolerated and no unexpected side effects were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Caspofungin PK in ICU patients showed limited intraindividual and moderate interindividual variability, and caspofungin was well tolerated. A standard two-stage approach did not reveal significant covariates. Our study showed similar caspofungin PK parameters in ICU patients compared with non-critically ill patients.

Application of European Society of Cardiology guidelines for evaluating acute coronary syndrome risk in low-risk patients with cocaine-associated chest pain: Findings from the RISK study - An observational analysis.

Background: Cocaine was the drug of choice in 4.7 % of all recreational drug-related emergency department visits. Of these patients, 40 % present with cocaine-associated chest pain, of whom 4.7 % develop an acute coronary syndrome. The American Heart Association recommends a 12-hour observation period for these patients. Objective: This study primarily aimed to ascertain whether the European Society of Cardiology non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction guidelines can be safely applied to rule-out acute coronary syndrome in low-risk patients with cocaine-associated chest pain. Methods: For this prospective observational cohort study, patients, aged 18-45 years old, who presented with cocaine-associated chest pain and were risk stratified as low risk according to the European Society of Cardiology non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction guidelines and therefore discharged home without prolonged observation period, were included. They were followed to assess major adverse cardiac events four weeks after presentation to the emergency department or chest pain unit. Cocaine use was confirmed with urine toxicology screening. Results: A total of 107 patients were included and analysed. The accuracy of the self-reported history of recent cocaine use was 94 %. Post-discharge cocaine use persisted among 32 % of patients. None of the included 107 patients died and major adverse cardiac event within four weeks did not occur among 97 patients with available data regarding MACE. Conclusion: Ruling out an acute coronary syndrome using the European Society of Cardiology non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction guidelines is likely to be safe for patients with cocaine-associated chest pain, however this study was underpowered to reach definitive conclusions.

Cardiotoxicity After Synthetic Cathinone Use; Two Cases, A Case Series and Scoping Review.

The cardiotoxic effects of synthetic cathinones remain largely unknown. In this study, we present two cases, a case series and a scoping review, to explore synthetic cathinone associated cardiotoxicity. Case 1 involved a 28-year-old male with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction after ingesting a substance containing 4-methylmethcathinone (4-MMC), 3-methylmethcathinon (3-MMC), and methcathinone. Case 2 involved a 49-year-old male with ventricular fibrillation after 4-methylmethcathinone ingestion, who was diagnosed with severe three-vessel disease. A retrospective analysis was performed on self-reported synthetic cathinone poisonings reported to the Dutch Poisons Information Centre from 2012 to 2022. A total of 222 mono-intoxications with cardiotoxicity were included, mostly involving 3-methylmethcathinon (63%). Often tachycardia, hypertension, palpitations, and chest pain were reported. A comprehensive literature search was performed on PubMed to identify the studies reporting cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, cardiac inflammation, cardiomyopathy, and life-threatening arrhythmias following synthetic cathinone use. A total of 30 articles reporting 40 cases were included. The reported complications included cardiac arrest (n = 28), ventricular tachycardia (n = 4), supraventricular tachycardia (n = 1), ST-elevation myocardial infarction (n = 2), non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (n = 2), cardiomyopathy (n = 1), and myocarditis (n = 2). A total of ten different associated synthetic cathinones were identified. Cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, and ventricular arrhythmias have been reported following the use of synthetic cathinones, underscoring the importance of obtaining a detailed recreational drug use history from patients presenting with syncope, chest pain, or palpitations.

The association of amfetamines and cathinones with acute coronary syndrome - a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: It is well known that cocaine increases the risk of acute coronary syndrome. However, it is uncertain if the use of other stimulants, such as amfetamines and cathinones, is also related to acute coronary syndrome. OBJECTIVES: To identify all reported cases of acute coronary syndrome related to the use of amfetamines and cathinones, the type of acute coronary syndrome, the atherothrombotic aetiology, and the mortality rate. METHODS: A systematic literature search in PubMed, Embase database, Cochrane library, PsycInfo and Web of Science was performed from inception until 31 August 2022. All original articles in English or Dutch describing adult patients with acute coronary syndrome after the use of amfetamines or cathinones were included. The main outcome was the occurrence of acute coronary syndrome associated with amfetamine-type stimulants or cathinones. Data were collected and reported according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 11,605 articles were identified, 56 of which met the inclusion criteria. A total of 160 patients presented with acute coronary syndrome after five different types of amfetamines, namely, amfetamine (n = 48), metamfetamine (n = 98), 3,4-methylenedioxymetamfetamine (n = 11), fenethylline (n = 2), and 4-fluoroamfetamine (n = 1). Khat chewing was associated with acute coronary syndrome (n = 4234), as were three different types of synthetic cathinones, namely, non-defined cathinones (n = 1), 4-methylmethcathinone (n = 1), and α-pyrrolidinopentiophenone (n = 1). In patients with a known acute coronary syndrome type (n = 157), ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction was diagnosed in 53 patients (75%) and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in 18 patients (25%). Of the ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, 36% were diagnosed with significant coronary stenosis or thrombus. The mortality rate for khat-associated acute coronary syndrome, with more often male and older patients with fewer cardiovascular risk factors, was higher compared to non-khat-associated acute coronary syndrome. For amfetamine, metamfetamine, and 3,4-methylenedioxymetamfetamine, mortality associated with ST--segment elevation myocardial infarction and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction was 14% and 7%, respectively. Risk factors for acute coronary syndrome were infrequently reported, and risk stratification scores were not reported. CONCLUSION: There is evidence that amfetamine-type stimulants and cathinones are associated with the occurrence of acute coronary syndrome. Khat chewing appears to be a risk factor for acute coronary syndrome. Amfetamine, metamfetamine, 3,4-methylenedioxymetamfetamine, fenethylline, 4-fluoroamfetamine, and synthetic cathinones were also reported in relation to acute coronary syndrome. However, this evidence is limited, of low quality and with a low number of reported cases. Further prospective studies need to be conducted.

Automated identification of patient subgroups: A case-study on mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU.

BACKGROUND: - Subgroup discovery (SGD) is the automated splitting of the data into complex subgroups. Various SGD methods have been applied to the medical domain, but none have been extensively evaluated. We assess the numerical and clinical quality of SGD methods. METHOD: - We applied the improved Subgroup Set Discovery (SSD++), Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) and APRIORI - Subgroup Discovery (APRIORI-SD) algorithms to obtain patient subgroups on observational data of 14,548 COVID-19 patients admitted to 73 Dutch intensive care units. Hospital mortality was the clinical outcome. Numerical significance of the subgroups was assessed with information-theoretic measures. Clinical significance of the subgroups was assessed by comparing variable importance on population and subgroup levels and by expert evaluation. RESULTS: - The tested algorithms varied widely in the total number of discovered subgroups (5-62), the number of selected variables, and the predictive value of the subgroups. Qualitative assessment showed that the found subgroups make clinical sense. SSD++ found most subgroups (n = 62), which added predictive value and generally showed high potential for clinical use. APRIORI-SD and PRIM found fewer subgroups (n = 5 and 6), which did not add predictive value and were clinically less relevant. CONCLUSION: - Automated SGD methods find clinical subgroups that are relevant when assessed quantitatively (yield added predictive value) and qualitatively (intensivists consider the subgroups significant). Different methods yield different subgroups with varying degrees of predictive performance and clinical quality. External validation is needed to generalize the results to other populations and future research should explore which algorithm performs best in other settings.

Incidence of Vitis fruit-induced clinical signs and acute kidney injury in dogs and cats.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of clinical signs and Vitis fruit-induced acute kidney injury in dogs and cats with a Vitis fruit ingestion reported to the Dutch Poisons Information Center, and a description of the therapies instituted by the veterinarians. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All cases of Vitis fruit ingestions in dogs and cats reported to the center between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2018 were included in this study. Veterinarians and pet owners were contacted by phone or email to obtain follow-up information. Information was collected using a standardised data collection sheet. RESULTS: Ninety-five dogs and 13 cats with proven Vitis fruit ingestion were included. Fourteen dogs and two cats developed clinical signs: emesis (11/16, 68.8%), lethargy (5/16, 31.3%), diarrhoea (3/16, 18.8%), anorexia (3/16, 18.8%), tremor (2/16, 12.5%) and restlessness (1/16, 6.3%). The overall incidence for developing clinical signs was 14.7% in dogs and 15.4% in cats. One (1/95, 1%) dog developed acute kidney injury after ingestion of Vitis fruit. No cats developed acute kidney injury. Induction of emesis and/or administration of activated charcoal was instituted in 72 of 82 (88%) and eight of 11 (73%) of asymptomatic dogs and cats and six of 14 (43%) and two of two (100%) of symptomatic dogs and cats, respectively. Overall, emesis was induced in 72 of 95 (76%) dogs (100% success rate) and removed Vitis fruits in the majority of cases (98% when induced <4 hours after ingestion and 83% when induced 4 to 12 hours after ingestion). Emesis was induced in seven of 13 (54%) cats (86% success rate) and removed Vitis fruits in 83% of the cases. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: In this study, a significant proportion (around 15%) of dogs and cats developed clinical signs after ingestion of Vitis fruits, which were predominantly related to the gastrointestinal tract. Symptomatic acute kidney injury was rare. Our findings suggest the use of decontamination measures, i.e. induction of emesis, may be warranted up to 12 hours after ingestion.

Comparison of outcome and characteristics between 6343 COVID-19 patients and 2256 other community-acquired viral pneumonia patients admitted to Dutch ICUs.

PURPOSE: Describe the differences in characteristics and outcomes between COVID-19 and other viral pneumonia patients admitted to Dutch ICUs. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the National-Intensive-Care-Evaluation-registry of COVID-19 patients admitted between February 15th and January 1th 2021 and other viral pneumonia patients admitted between January 1st 2017 and January 1st 2020 were used. Patients' characteristics, the unadjusted, and adjusted in-hospital mortality were compared. RESULTS: 6343 COVID-19 and 2256 other viral pneumonia patients from 79 ICUs were included. The COVID-19 patients included more male (71.3 vs 49.8%), had a higher Body-Mass-Index (28.1 vs 25.5), less comorbidities (42.2 vs 72.7%), and a prolonged hospital length of stay (19 vs 9 days). The COVID-19 patients had a significantly higher crude in-hospital mortality rate (Odds ratio (OR) = 1.80), after adjustment for patient characteristics and ICU occupancy rate the OR was respectively 3.62 and 3.58. CONCLUSION: Higher mortality among COVID-19 patients could not be explained by patient characteristics and higher ICU occupancy rates, indicating that COVID-19 is more severe compared to other viral pneumonia. Our findings confirm earlier warnings of a high need of ICU capacity and high mortality rates among relatively healthy COVID-19 patients as this may lead to a higher mental workload for the staff.

Can we reliably automate clinical prognostic modelling? A retrospective cohort study for ICU triage prediction of in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Building Machine Learning (ML) models in healthcare may suffer from time-consuming and potentially biased pre-selection of predictors by hand that can result in limited or trivial selection of suitable models. We aimed to assess the predictive performance of automating the process of building ML models (AutoML) in-hospital mortality prediction modelling of triage COVID-19 patients at ICU admission versus expert-based predictor pre-selection followed by logistic regression. METHODS: We conducted an observational study of all COVID-19 patients admitted to Dutch ICUs between February and July 2020. We included 2,690 COVID-19 patients from 70 ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) registry. The main outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. We asessed model performance (at admission and after 24h, respectively) of AutoML compared to the more traditional approach of predictor pre-selection and logistic regression. FINDINGS: Predictive performance of the autoML models with variables available at admission shows fair discrimination (average AUROC = 0·75-0·76 (sdev = 0·03), PPV = 0·70-0·76 (sdev = 0·1) at cut-off = 0·3 (the observed mortality rate), and good calibration. This performance is on par with a logistic regression model with selection of patient variables by three experts (average AUROC = 0·78 (sdev = 0·03) and PPV = 0·79 (sdev = 0·2)). Extending the models with variables that are available at 24h after admission resulted in models with higher predictive performance (average AUROC = 0·77-0·79 (sdev = 0·03) and PPV = 0·79-0·80 (sdev = 0·10-0·17)). CONCLUSIONS: AutoML delivers prediction models with fair discriminatory performance, and good calibration and accuracy, which is as good as regression models with expert-based predictor pre-selection. In the context of the restricted availability of data in an ICU quality registry, extending the models with variables that are available at 24h after admission showed small (but significantly) performance increase.

Alarming increase in poisonings from recreational nitrous oxide use after a change in EU-legislation, inquiries to the Dutch Poisons Information Center.

BACKGROUND: After the change in EU-legislation in 2014, recreational use of nitrous oxide (N2O) increased in the Netherlands from 2015 onwards. We studied the effect on N2O poisonings during an 11 year period. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was performed on the incidence rate of N2O poisonings, relative to all recreational drug poisonings reported to the Dutch Poisons Information Center (DPIC) from 2010-2020. Secondary outcomes were the frequency of heavy use, frequent use, co-exposures, and toxicity in 2019 and 2020. RESULTS: 433 N2O poisonings were included. The incidence rate increased exponentially from 0.12% in 2010 to 11% in 2020, with an average monthly rate of 3.8%. In 2019 and 2020, 79% of the patients indicated heavy use, frequent use or both, and 42% used from large cylinders. Chronic toxicity (signs of peripheral neuropathy) was reported in 38% of the patients. CONCLUSION: The rate of N2O poisonings increased alarmingly in the Netherlands. An increasing proportion of patients reported problematic heavy or frequent use, accompanied by chronic toxicity.

Short- and long-term outcome of HIV-infected patients admitted to the intensive care unit.

The purpose of this investigation was to analyse the impact of the availability of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on the long-term outcome of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). A retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected patients admitted to the ICU was undertaken. Outcomes in the pre-HAART era (1990-June 1996), early- (July 1996-2002), and recent-HAART (2003-2008) periods and total HAART era (July 1996-2008) were analysed and compared with those reported of the general population. A total of 127 ICU admissions were included. The 1-year mortality decreased from 71% in the pre-HAART era to 50% in the recent-HAART period (p = 0.06). The 5-year mortality decreased from 87% in the pre-HAART era to 59% in the early-HAART period (p = 0.005). Independent predictors of 1-year mortality in the HAART era were age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06-1.27]), APACHE II score > 20 (6.04 [1.25-29.22]) and mechanical ventilation (40.01 [3.01-532.65]). The 5-year survival after hospitalisation was 80% and in the range of the reported survival of non-HIV-infected patients (83.7%). Predictors of 1-year mortality for HIV patients admitted to the ICU in the HAART era were all non-HIV-related. Short- and long-term outcome has improved since the introduction of HAART and is comparable to the outcome data in non-HIV-infected ICU patients.

Getting it right first time in a patient with Candida peritonitis.

Here a patient is presented with a mediastinitis, pleural empyema and peritonitis with Candida glabrata and Enterococcus faecium after a complicated robot-assisted thoracolaparoscopic oesophagolymphadectomy esophagectomy. This case description highlights some of the therapeutic dilemmas that physicians face when treating critically ill patients with health care-associated invasive Candida infections. The current guidelines and treatment with echinocandins are discussed.

Cardiovascular risk is more related to drinking pattern than to the type of alcoholic drinks.

Many observational studies have shown an association between moderate alcohol consumption and a lower risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Some of these studies, whether or not inspired by the French paradox, suggest a more favourable effect of wine than of other alcoholic drinks. Certain polyphenols including the flavonoids, more abundant in red than in white wine, are held responsible for this 'bonus' effect. However, this conclusion seems premature, since no significant bioactive effect of wine polyphenols has been shown in humans so far. Furthermore, wine drinking proves to be associated with a healthier lifestyle profile than consumption of beer and liquor, and this may have a substantial influence on the outcome of studies. In contrast to moderate drinking, incidental heavy or binge drinking is associated with an increased cardiovascular risk by influences both on the electrical conduction system of the heart and the process of atherothrombosis. Although only prospective randomised intervention trials including a sufficient number of people will give definite answers, the chances are small that they will ever be performed given the ethical and practical objections of such studies. Available data so far justify the conclusion with regard to cardiovascular risk that the pattern of drinking is of more importance than the content of the bottle.

[Three patients with thoracic actinomycosis]. / Drie patiënten met thoracale actinomycose.

Thoracic actinomycosis was diagnosed in 3 patients. A 39-year-old man with no relevant medical history was admitted with syncope and hemiparesis. Radiological examination of the thorax and cerebrum revealed abnormalities. The second patient was a 50-year-old man with pneumonia that had not responded to multiple courses of different antibiotics. The third patient was a 42-year-old man admitted for evaluation and treatment of hepatopulmonary abnormalities. Actinomyces was cultured from purulent material obtained under anaerobic conditions as far as possible from the first 2 patients; the third patient was diagnosed by histopathological examination. All 3 patients recovered completely after long-term antibiotic therapy. Actinomycosis remains a diagnostic challenge due to the inherent difficulties in culturing anaerobic bacteria. In addition, false-positive results are possible because Actinomyces is present in the oropharynx, digestive tract and female genital tract under normal conditions.