Scaling effect in COVID-19 spreading: The role of heterogeneity in a hybrid ODE-network model with restrictions on the inter-cities flow.

The new Covid-19 pandemic has left traces of suffering and devastation to individuals of almost all countries worldwide and severe impact on the global economy. Understanding the clinical characteristics, interactions with the environment, and the variables that favor or hinder its dissemination help the public authorities in the fight and prevention, leading for a rapid response in society. Using models to estimate contamination scenarios in real time plays an important role. Population compartments models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) for a given region assume two homogeneous premises, the contact mechanisms and diffusion rates, disregarding heterogeneous factors as different contact rates for each municipality and the flow of contaminated people among them. This work considers a hybrid model for covid-19, based on local SIR models and the population flow network among municipalities, responsible for a complex lag dynamic in their contagion curves. Based on actual infection data, local contact rates ( ß ) are evaluated. The epidemic evolution at each municipality depends on the local SIR parameters and on the inter-municipality transport flow. When heterogeneity of ß values and flow network are included, forecasts differ from those of the homogeneous ODE model. This effect is more relevant when more municipalities are considered, hinting that the latter overestimates new cases. In addition, mitigation scenarios are assessed to evaluate the effect of earlier interventions reducing the inter-municipality flux. Restricting the flow between municipalities in the initial stage of the epidemic is fundamental for flattening the contamination curve, highlighting advantages of a contamination lag between the capital curve and those of other municipalities in the territories.

Evaluating social protection mitigation effects on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis through a mathematical modelling study.

The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated-an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage-evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4-31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12-34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10-25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15-31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.

Subsidised housing and diabetes mortality: a retrospective cohort study of 10 million low-income adults in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Housing-related factors can be predictors of health, including of diabetes outcomes. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and diabetes mortality among a large cohort of low-income adults in Brazil. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort of 9 961 271 low-income adults, observed from January 2010 to December 2015, was created from Brazilian administrative records of social programmes and death certificates. We analysed the association between subsidised housing residency and time to diabetes mortality using a Cox model with inverse probability of treatment weighting and regression adjustment. We assessed inequalities in this association by groups of municipality Human Development Index. Diabetes mortality included diabetes both as the underlying or a contributory cause of death. RESULTS: At baseline, the mean age of the cohort was 40.3 years (SD 15.6 years), with a majority of women (58.4%). During 29 238 920 person-years of follow-up, there were 18 775 deaths with diabetes as the underlying or a contributory cause. 340 683 participants (3.4% of the cohort) received subsidised housing. Subsidised housing residents had a higher hazard of diabetes mortality compared with non-residents (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). The magnitude of this association was more pronounced among participants living in municipalities with lower Human Development Index (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Subsidised housing residents had a greater risk of diabetes mortality, particularly those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities. This finding suggests the need to intensify diabetes prevention and control actions and prompt treatment of the diabetes complications among subsidised housing residents, particularly among those living in low socioeconomic status municipalities.

Profile of COVID-19 in Brazil-risk factors and socioeconomic vulnerability associated with disease outcome: retrospective analysis of population-based registers.

OBJECTIVES: To classify the most up-to-date factors associated with COVID-19 disease outcomes in Brazil. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Nationwide Brazilian COVID-19 healthcare registers. PARTICIPANTS: We used healthcare data of individuals diagnosed with mild/moderate (n=70 056 602) or severe (n=2801 380) COVID-19 disease in Brazil between 26 February 2020 and 15 November 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of hospitalisation and mortality affected by demographic, clinical and socioeconomic variables were estimated. The impacts of socioeconomic inequalities on vaccination rates, cases and deaths were also evaluated. RESULTS: 15.6 million SARS-CoV-2 infection cases and 584 761 COVID-19-related deaths occurred in Brazil between 26 February 2020 and 15 November 2021. Overall, men presented a higher odds of death than women (OR=1.14, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.15), but postpartum patients admitted to hospital wards were at increased odds of dying (OR=1.23, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.34) compared with individuals without reported comorbidities. Death in younger age groups was notably higher in most deprived municipalities and also among individuals <40 years belonging to indigenous backgrounds compared with white patients, as shown by descriptive analysis. Ethnic/racial backgrounds exhibited a continuum of decreasing survival chances of mixed-race (OR=1.11, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.12), black (OR=1.34, 95% CI 1.32 to 1.36) and indigenous (OR=1.42, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.54) individuals, while those in most deprived municipalities also presented an increased odds of death (OR=1.38, 95% CI 1.36 to 1.40). Deprivation levels also affect the prompt referral of patients to adequate care. Our results show that the odds of death of individuals hospitalised for less than 4 days is more than double that of patients with close-to-average hospital stays (OR=2.07, 95% CI 2.05 to 2.10). Finally, negative vaccination status also increased the odds of dying from the disease (OR=1.29, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.31). CONCLUSIONS: The data provide evidence that the patterns of COVID-19 mortality in Brazil are influenced by both individual-level health and social risk factors, as well as municipality-level deprivation. In addition, these data suggest that there may be inequalities in the timely provision of appropriate healthcare that are related to municipality-level deprivation.