A recalibrated prediction model can identify level-1 trauma patients at risk of nosocomial pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial pneumonia has poor prognosis in hospitalized trauma patients. Croce et al. published a model to predict post-traumatic ventilator-associated pneumonia, which achieved high discrimination and reasonable sensitivity. We aimed to externally validate Croce's model to predict nosocomial pneumonia in patients admitted to a Dutch level-1 trauma center. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included all trauma patients (≥ 16y) admitted for > 24 h to our level-1 trauma center in 2017. Exclusion criteria were pneumonia or antibiotic treatment upon hospital admission, treatment elsewhere > 24 h, or death < 48 h. Croce's model used eight clinical variables-on trauma severity and treatment, available in the emergency department-to predict nosocomial pneumonia risk. The model's predictive performance was assessed through discrimination and calibration before and after re-estimating the model's coefficients. In sensitivity analysis, the model was updated using Ridge regression. RESULTS: 809 Patients were included (median age 51y, 67% male, 97% blunt trauma), of whom 86 (11%) developed nosocomial pneumonia. Pneumonia patients were older, more severely injured, and underwent more emergent interventions. Croce's model showed good discrimination (AUC 0.83, 95% CI 0.79-0.87), yet predicted probabilities were too low (mean predicted risk 6.4%), and calibration was suboptimal (calibration slope 0.63). After full model recalibration, discrimination (AUC 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.88) and calibration improved. Adding age to the model increased the AUC to 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.91). Prediction parameters were similar after the models were updated using Ridge regression. CONCLUSION: The externally validated and intercept-recalibrated models show good discrimination and have the potential to predict nosocomial pneumonia. At this time, clinicians could apply these models to identify high-risk patients, increase patient monitoring, and initiate preventative measures. Recalibration of Croce's model improved the predictive performance (discrimination and calibration). The recalibrated model provides a further basis for nosocomial pneumonia prediction in level-1 trauma patients. Several models are accessible via an online tool. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, Prognostic/Epidemiological Study.

Probiotic treatment with Probioflora in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis without organ failure.

BACKGROUND: We previously demonstrated that probiotic prophylaxis, in patients with predicted severe pancreatitis, did not prevent infectious complications but unexpectedly increased the risk of bowel ischemia and mortality. The suggestion that these negative findings are only observed in the presence of organ failure at the start of probiotic treatment has not been confirmed. METHODS: In a retrospective analysis, all patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis without initial organ failure admitted to a medium care facility of a teaching hospital in Prague from January 2003 to December 2010 were included. All patients routinely received probiotic treatment with Probioflora. Total parenteral nutrition (TPN) was routinely started and shifted toward total enteral nutrition. Infectious complications, mortality and the incidence of bowel ischemia were recorded. RESULTS: 99 consecutive patients, mean age 56 years, were included. Infectious complications occurred in 42 patients (42%), consisting of bacteremia (n = 40), pneumonia (n = 11) and infected necrosis (n = 11). Bowel ischemia was detected in two patients (2%). Overall mortality was 8%. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study no apparent positive or negative impact of probiotic treatment with Probioflora was demonstrated when administered to patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis without initial organ failure.

Systematic review of percutaneous catheter drainage as primary treatment for necrotizing pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: The role of percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) in patients with (infected) necrotizing pancreatitis was evaluated. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed. Inclusion criteria were: consecutive cohort of patients with necrotizing pancreatitis undergoing PCD as primary treatment for peripancreatic collections; indication for PCD either (suspected) infected necrosis or symptomatic sterile pancreatic necrosis; and outcomes reported to include percentage of infected peripancreatic collections, need for additional surgical necrosectomy, complications and deaths. Exclusion criteria were: cohort of fewer than five patients; cohort included patients with chronic pancreatitis; selected subgroup of patients with acute pancreatitis studied, such as those with pseudocysts, pancreatic abscesses and/or exclusively sterile pancreatic necrosis; and cohort in which PCD was combined with another minimally invasive strategy and results for PCD alone not reported separately. RESULTS: Eleven studies, including 384 patients, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Only one study was a randomized controlled trial; most others were retrospective case series. Four studies reported on the presence of organ failure before PCD; this occurred in 67·2 per cent of 116 patients. Infected necrosis was proven in 271 (70·6 per cent) of 384 patients. No additional surgical necrosectomy was required after PCD in 214 (55·7 per cent) of 384 patients. Complications consisted mostly of internal and external pancreatic fistulas. The overall mortality rate was 17·4 per cent (67 of 384 patients). Nine of 11 studies reported mortality separately for patients with infected necrosis undergoing PCD; the mortality rate in this group was 15·4 per cent (27 of 175). CONCLUSION: A considerable number of patients can be treated with PCD without the need for surgical necrosectomy.

Is home-based monitoring of ovulation to time frozen embryo transfer a cost-effective alternative for hospital-based monitoring of ovulation? Study protocol of the multicentre, non-inferiority Antarctica-2 randomised controlled trial.

STUDY QUESTION: The objective of this trial is to compare the effectiveness and costs of true natural cycle (true NC-) frozen embryo transfer (FET) using urinary LH tests to modified NC-FET using repeated ultrasound monitoring and ovulation trigger to time FET in the NC. Secondary outcomes are the cancellation rates of FET (ovulation before hCG or no dominant follicle, no ovulation by LH urine test, poor embryo survival), pregnancy outcomes (miscarriage rate, clinical pregnancy rates, multiple ongoing pregnancy rates, live birth rates, costs) and neonatal outcomes (including gestational age, birthweight and sex, congenital abnormalities or diseases of babies born). WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: FET is at the heart of modern IVF. To allow implantation of the thawed embryo, the endometrium must be prepared either by exogenous oestrogen and progesterone supplementation (artificial cycle (AC)-FET) or by using the NC to produce endogenous oestradiol before and progesterone after ovulation to time the transfer of the thawed embryo (NC-FET). During an NC-FET, women visit the hospital repeatedly and receive an ovulation trigger to time FET (i.e. modified (m)NC-FET or hospital-based monitoring). From the woman's point of view, a more natural approach using home-based monitoring of the ovulation with LH urine tests to allow a natural ovulation to time FET may be desired (true NC-FET or home-based monitoring). STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION: This is a multicentre, non-inferiority prospective randomised controlled trial design. Consenting women will undergo one FET cycle using either true NC-FET or mNC-FET based on randomisation. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS: Based on our sample size calculation, the study group will consist of 1464 women between 18 and 45 years old who are scheduled for FET. Women with anovulatory cycles, women who need ovulation induction and women with a contra indication for pregnancy will be excluded. The primary outcome is ongoing pregnancy. Secondary outcomes are cancellation rates of FET, pregnancy outcomes (including miscarriage rate, clinical pregnancy, multiple pregnancy rate and live birth rate). Costs will be estimated by counting resource use and calculating unit prices. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: The study received a grant from the Dutch Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw 843002807; www.zonmw.nl). ZonMw has no role in the design of the study, collection, analysis, and interpretation of data or writing of the manuscript. F.B. reports personal fees from member of the external advisory board for Merck Serono, grants from Research support grant Merck Serono, outside the submitted work. A.E.P.C. reports and Unrestricted grant of Ferring B.V. to the Center for Reproductive medicine, no personal fee. Author up-to-date on Hyperthecosis. Congress meetings 2019 with Ferring B.V. and Theramex B.V. M.G. reports Department research and educational grants from Guerbet, Merck and Ferring (location VUMC) outside the submitted work. E.R.G. reports personal fees from Titus Health Care, outside the submitted work. C.B.L. reports grants from Ferring, grants from Merck, from Guerbet, outside the submitted work. The other authors have none to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Dutch Trial Register (Trial NL6414 (NTR6590), https://www.trialregister.nl/). TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE: 23 July 2017. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLMENT: 10 April 2018.

Long-term quality of life after surgery for chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Surgery for chronic pancreatitis is indicated for intractable pain or the treatment of complications. This retrospective cohort study evaluated the applicability of pain coping and quality-of-life (QOL) scoring in patients with chronic pancreatitis. METHODS: Between 1995 and 2008, 155 patients underwent surgery for chronic pancreatitis in two Dutch university hospitals. Medical charts were reviewed, and QOL and coping with pain were assessed by two validated questionnaires. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 5.6 years. The aetiology was alcohol related in 48.3 per cent. Some 111 resections and 46 drainage procedures were performed. Fifty-seven patients had major complications and the hospital mortality rate was 1.3 per cent. After surgery the number of patients needing analgesics was reduced (P < 0.001). Alcohol consumption significantly reduced pain coping mechanisms (P = 0.032). Overall, QOL remained poor after surgery. Scores on three dimensions of the QOL questionnaire were significantly better after drainage than after resection procedures. CONCLUSION: In general, QOL after surgery for chronic pancreatitis remains poor, owing to pre-existing lifestyle and co-morbidity. Patients selected for a pancreatic duct drainage procedure have a better postoperative QOL than those undergoing resectional procedures. Alcohol consumption is associated with poor ability to cope with pain after surgery and should be discouraged.

The additive factor method: a differential diagnostic tool in hyperactivity and learning disability.

The Additive Factor Method assumes that task performance is the sum of sequential and independent processes. We studied the duration of the central processes (memory search and decision) and the motor decision process in hyperactive and learning-disabled children under so-called divided attention and S-R compatibility conditions. It was found that the learning-disabled were impaired in memory search and decision processes whereas hyperactives were impaired in the motor decision process.

Impact of current cryopreservation procedures on mechanical and functional properties of human aortic homografts.

We evaluated the impact f standard cryopreservation on mechanical and functional properties of human aortic homografts. From 14 human heart-valve donors, the thoracic descending aorta was obtained. Effects of cryopreservation on mechanical (elastic properties and breaking stress) and smooth muscle cell (SMC) and endothelium function were tested. Cryopreservation (cryo) did not significantly affect Young's modulus of elastin (fresh: 3.1 +/- 1.0, cryo: 2.7 +/- 0.9 x 10(5) Nm(-2)), collagen recruitment pressure (fresh: 1.1 +/- 0.3, cryo: 1.1 +/- 0.4 x 10(4) Nm(-2)), distensibility (fresh: 3.8 +/- 1.8, cryo: 3.6 +/- 1.6 x 10(5) N(-1)m2), or breaking stress (fresh: 2.4 +/- 1.0, cryo: 2.2 +/- 1.0 x 10(6) Nm(-2)). Following explantation, no endothelium-dependent relaxation was found. SMC function and endothelium-independent relaxation were mainly intact after explantation but significantly decreased after cryopreservation. Aortic mechanical properties are not influenced by cryopreservation. Following explantation, almost no endothelial cell function is present, and SMC contractility is strongly affected after cryopreservation.