A Bayesian approach for investigating the pharmacogenetics of combination antiretroviral therapy in people with HIV.

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) with at least three different drugs has become the standard of care for people with HIV (PWH) due to its exceptional effectiveness in viral suppression. However, many ART drugs have been reported to associate with neuropsychiatric adverse effects including depression, especially when certain genetic polymorphisms exist. Pharmacogenetics is an important consideration for administering combination ART as it may influence drug efficacy and increase risk for neuropsychiatric conditions. Large-scale longitudinal HIV databases provide researchers opportunities to investigate the pharmacogenetics of combination ART in a data-driven manner. However, with more than 30 FDA-approved ART drugs, the interplay between the large number of possible ART drug combinations and genetic polymorphisms imposes statistical modeling challenges. We develop a Bayesian approach to examine the longitudinal effects of combination ART and their interactions with genetic polymorphisms on depressive symptoms in PWH. The proposed method utilizes a Gaussian process with a composite kernel function to capture the longitudinal combination ART effects by directly incorporating individuals' treatment histories, and a Bayesian classification and regression tree to account for individual heterogeneity. Through both simulation studies and an application to a dataset from the Women's Interagency HIV Study, we demonstrate the clinical utility of the proposed approach in investigating the pharmacogenetics of combination ART and assisting physicians to make effective individualized treatment decisions that can improve health outcomes for PWH.

Measurement of cumulative high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio in the risk prediction of type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Converging data have suggested that monocytic inflammation and C-reactive protein (CRP) are biologically intertwined processes and are involved in diabetogenesis. This study aimed to investigate the association between systemic inflammation assessed by joint cumulative high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CumCRP) and monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio (CumMHR) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) and their predictive value for T2D in a general population. METHODS: A total of 40,813 nondiabetic participants from a prospective real-life cohort (Kailuan Study, China) were followed biennially from 2010/2011 until December 31, 2020. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of incident diabetes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.98 (IQR: 5.74-8.87) years, 4848 T2D cases developed. CumMHR and CumCRP were alone or jointly associated with incident T2D after adjusting for potential confounders. Elevated CumMHR levels significantly increased the risk of incident diabetes in each CumCRP strata (P-interaction: 0.0278). Participants with concomitant elevations in CumMHR and CumCRP levels had the highest risk (aHR: 1.71, 95% CI 1.52-1.91) compared to both in the low strata. Notably, the coexposure-associated T2D risk was modified by age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and prediabetes status. C-statistics increased from 0.7377 to 0.7417 when CumMHR and CumCRP were added into the multivariable-adjusted model, with a net reclassification improvement (%) of 12.39 (9.39-15.37) (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative hsCRP and MHR were both independently and jointly associated with an increased risk of T2D and their addition to established risk factors should improve risk prediction and reclassification of diabetes.

Prospective longitudinal cohort study of quantitative muscle magnetic resonance imaging in a healthy control population.

Quantitative muscle magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) is a valuable methodology for assessing muscular injuries and neuromuscular disorders. Notably, muscle diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) gives insights into muscle microstructural and macrostructural characteristics. However, the long-term reproducibility and robustness of these measurements remain relatively unexplored. The purpose of this prospective longitudinal cohort study was to assess the long-term robustness and range of variation of qMRI parameters, especially DTI metrics, in the lower extremity muscles of healthy controls under real-life conditions. Twelve volunteers (seven females, age 44.1 ± 12.1 years, body mass index 23.3 ± 2.0 kg/m2) underwent five leg muscle MRI sessions every 20 ± 4 weeks over a total period of 1.5 years. A multiecho gradient-echo Dixon-based sequence, a multiecho spin-echo T2-mapping sequence, and a spin-echo echo planar imaging diffusion-weighted sequence were acquired bilaterally with a Philips 3-T Achieva MR System using a 16-channel torso coil. Fifteen leg muscles were segmented in both lower extremities. qMRI parameters, including fat fraction (FF), water T2 relaxation time, and the diffusion metrics fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD), were evaluated. Coefficients of variance (wsCV) and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated to assess the reproducibility of qMRI parameters. The standard error of measurement (SEM) and the minimal detectable change (MDC) were calculated to determine the range of variation. All tests were applied to all muscles and, subsequently, to each muscle separately. wsCV showed good reproducibility (≤ 10%) for all qMRI parameters in all muscles. The ICCs revealed excellent agreement between time points (FF = 0.980, water T2 = 0.941, FA = 0.952, MD = 0.948). Random measurement errors assessed by SEM and the MDC were low (< 12%). In conclusion, in this study, we showed that qMRI parameters in healthy volunteers living normal lives are stable over 18 months, thereby defining a benchmark for the expected range of variation over time.

Plasma IL-6 levels and their association with brain health and dementia risk: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have associated immune abnormalities with dementia. IL-6 is a crucial cytokine in inflammatory responses, and recent evidence has linked elevated IL-6 levels to changes in brain structure and cognitive decline. However, the connection between IL-6 levels, cognition, brain volumes, and dementia risk requires exploration in large prospective cohorts. METHODS: This study utilized a longitudinal cohort from the UK Biobank to analyze the correlation between IL-6 expression levels, cognitive performance, and cortical and subcortical brain volumes through linear regression. Additionally, we assessed the association between IL-6 levels and long-term dementia risk using Cox regression analysis. We also used one-sample Mendelian randomization to analyze the impact of genetic predisposition of dementia on elevated IL-6 levels. RESULTS: A total of 50,864 participants were included in this study, with 1,391 new cases of all-cause dementia identified. Higher plasma IL-6 levels are associated with cortical and subcortical atrophy in regions such as the fusiform, thalamus proper, hippocampus, and larger ventricle volumes. IL-6 levels are negatively associated with cognitive performance in pair matching, numeric memory, prospective memory, and reaction time tests. Furthermore, elevated IL-6 levels are linked to a 23-35 % increased risk of all-cause dementia over an average follow-up period of 13.2 years. The one-sample Mendelian randomization analysis did not show associations between the genetic predisposition of dementia and elevated IL-6 levels. CONCLUSIONS: Increased IL-6 levels are associated with worse cognition, brain atrophy, and a heightened risk of all-cause dementia. Our study highlights the need to focus on the role of peripheral IL-6 levels in managing brain health and dementia risk.

Olfactory Dysfunction and Long-Term Trajectories of Sleep Disorders among early Parkinson's Disease: Findings from a Longitudinal Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested a connection between impaired olfactory function and an increased risk of rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD) in individuals diagnosed with Parkinson's disease (PD). However, there is a gap in knowledge regarding the potential impact of olfactory dysfunction on the long-term patterns of sleep disorders among early PD patients. METHODS: Data from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative program included 589 participants with assessments of sleep disorders using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) and RBD Screening Questionnaire (RBDSQ). Olfactory dysfunction at baseline was measured using the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test. Trajectories of sleep disorders over a 5-year follow-up were identified using group-based trajectory modeling, and the relationship between olfactory dysfunction and sleep disorder trajectories was examined through binomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Two distinct trajectories of sleep disorders over the 5-year follow-up period were identified, characterized by maintaining a low or high ESS score and a low or high RBDSQ score. An inversion association was observed between olfactory function measures and trajectories of excessive daytime sleepiness (odds ratio [OR] = 0.97, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95, 1.00, p = 0.038), after controlling for potential covariates. Similarly, olfactory function showed a significant association with lower trajectories of probable RBD (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94, 0.98, p = 0.001) among early PD individuals. Consistent findings were replicated across alternative analytical models. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicated that olfactory dysfunction was associated with unfavorable long-term trajectories of sleep disorders among early PD.

Remote surveillance and detection of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among household members in King County, Washington.

BACKGROUND: Early during the COVID-19 pandemic, it was important to better understand transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Household contacts of infected individuals are particularly at risk for infection, but delays in contact tracing, delays in testing contacts, and isolation and quarantine posed challenges to accurately capturing secondary household cases. METHODS: In this study, 346 households in the Seattle region were provided with respiratory specimen collection kits and remotely monitored using web-based surveys for respiratory illness symptoms weekly between October 1, 2020, and June 20, 2021. Symptomatic participants collected respiratory specimens at symptom onset and mailed specimens to the central laboratory in Seattle. Specimens were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR with whole genome sequencing attempted when positive. SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals were notified, and their household contacts submitted specimens every 2 days for 14 days. RESULTS: In total, 1371 participants collected 2029 specimens that were tested; 16 individuals (1.2%) within 6 households tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period. Full genome sequences were generated from 11 individuals within 4 households. Very little genetic variation was found among SARS-CoV-2 viruses sequenced from different individuals in the same household, supporting transmission within the household. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates web-based surveillance of respiratory symptoms, combined with rapid and longitudinal specimen collection and remote contact tracing, provides a viable strategy to monitor households and detect household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. TRIAL REGISTRATION IDENTIFIER: NCT04141930, Date of registration 28/10/2019.

Association of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine with motoric cognitive risk in elderly Chinese people: RUGAO longevity and aging cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Motor cognitive risk syndrome (MCR) represents a critical pre-dementia and disability state characterized by a combination of objectively measured slow walking speed and subjective memory complaints (SMCs). This study aims to identify risk factors for MCR and investigate the relationship between plasma levels of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) and MCR among Chinese community-dwelling elderly populations. METHODS: A total of 1312 participants were involved in this study based on the data of the Rugao Longevity and Aging Study (RuLAS). The MCR was characterized by SMCs and slow walking speed. The SCCs were defined as a positive answer to the question 'Do you feel you have more problems with memory than most?' in a 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale. Slow walking speed was determined by one standard deviation or more below the mean value of the patient's age and gender group. The plasma of 8-OHdG were measured by a technician in the biochemistry laboratory of the Rugao People's Hospital during the morning of the survey. RESULTS: The prevalence of MCR was found to be 7.9%. After adjusting for covariates, significant associations with MCR were observed in older age (OR 1.057; p = 0.018), history of cerebrovascular disease (OR 2.155; p = 0.010), and elevated 8-OHdG levels (OR 1.007; p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: This study indicated the elevated plasma 8-OHdG is significantly associated with increased MCR risk in the elderly, suggesting its potential as a biomarker for early detection and intervention in MCR. This finding underscores the importance of monitoring oxidative DNA damage markers in predicting cognitive and motor function declines, offering new avenues for research and preventive strategies in aging populations.

Multimorbidity, healthy lifestyle, and the risk of cognitive impairment in Chinese older adults: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the association between multimorbidity and cognitive impairment in Chinese older population is limited. In addition, whether a healthy lifestyle can protect cognitive function in multimorbid older population remains unknown. METHODS: A total of 6116 participants aged ≥ 65 years from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey were followed up repeatedly. The number of coexisting chronic diseases was used for assessing multimorbidity and cardiometabolic multimorbidity. Three lifestyle statuses (unhealthy, intermediate, and healthy) were defined based on a lifestyle score covering smoking, alcohol drinking, body mass index, outdoor activities, and dietary pattern. Cognitive impairment was defined as the Mini-Mental State Examination score < 24. A modified Poisson regression model with robust error variance was used to assess the associations between multimorbidity, healthy lifestyle, and cognitive impairment. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 5.8 years, 1621 incident cases of cognitive impairment were identified. The relative risk (RR) of cognitive impairment associated with heavy multimorbidity burden (≥ 3 conditions) was 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.22-1.59). This association declined with age, with RRs being 3.08 (1.78-5.31), 1.40 (1.04-1.87), and 1.19 (1.01-1.40) in subjects aged < 70 years, ≥ 70 and < 80 years, and ≥ 80 years, respectively (P for interaction = 0.001). Compared to unhealthy lifestyle, a healthy lifestyle was related to an approximately 40% reduced risk of cognitive impairment regardless of multimorbidity burden. Among the 5 lifestyle factors assessed, daily outdoor activities and a healthy dietary pattern showed convincing protective effects on cognitive function. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between multimorbidity and cognitive impairment is age-dependent but remains significant in the population aged 80 years or older. A healthy lifestyle may protect cognitive function regardless of the multimorbidity burden. These findings highlight the importance of targeting individuals with heavy multimorbidity burden and promoting a heathy lifestyle to prevent cognitive impairment in Chinese older population.

A longitudinal cohort study on the use of health and care services by older adults living at home with/without dementia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: the HUNT study.

BACKGROUND: Older adults and people with dementia were anticipated to be particularly unable to use health and care services during the lockdown period following the COVID-19 pandemic. To better prepare for future pandemics, we aimed to investigate whether the use of health and care services changed during the pandemic and whether those at older ages and/or dementia experienced a higher degree of change than that observed by their counterparts. METHODS: Data from the Norwegian Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT4 70 + , 2017-2019) were linked to two national health registries that have individual-level data on the use of primary and specialist health and care services. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model was used to calculate changes in the use of services from 18 months before the lockdown, (12 March 2020) to 18 months after the lockdown. RESULTS: The study sample included 10,607 participants, 54% were women and 11% had dementia. The mean age was 76 years (SD: 5.7, range: 68-102 years). A decrease in primary health and care service use, except for contact with general practitioners (GPs), was observed during the lockdown period for people with dementia (p < 0.001) and those aged ≥ 80 years without dementia (p = 0.006), compared to the 6-month period before the lockdown. The use of specialist health services decreased during the lockdown period for all groups (p ≤ 0.011), except for those aged < 80 years with dementia. Service use reached levels comparable to pre-pandemic data within one year after the lockdown. CONCLUSION: Older adults experienced an immediate reduction in the use of health and care services, other than GP contacts, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within primary care services, people with dementia demonstrated a more pronounced reduction than that observed in people without dementia; otherwise, the variations related to age and dementia status were small. Both groups returned to services levels similar to those during the pre-pandemic period within one year after the lockdown. The increase in GP contacts may indicate a need to reallocate resources to primary health services during future pandemics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, with the identification number NCT04792086.

The use of the evidence-based practice process by experienced registered nurses to inform and transform clinical practice during the COVID-19 pandemic: A longitudinal national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, many registered nurses (RNs) worked on the frontline caring for severely ill patients. They did so with limited knowledge of how to treat and prevent the disease. This extreme situation puts pressure on RNs to find evidence on which to base the care of their patients. AIMS: To examine: (1) the extent to which evidence-based practice (EBP) process was applied by Swedish RN cohorts 15-19 years after graduation during the pandemic, (2) whether there was any change to their EBP process from pre-pandemic to late pandemic, (3) the relationship between RNs' use of the EBP process and the duration of exposure to work situations severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and (4) whether level of education, position and care setting were associated with the extent of RNs' EBP process. METHODS: In 2021, the level of EBP activities was investigated among 2237 RNs 15-19 years after graduation. The scale used to measure EBP consisted of six items of the EBP process. Unpaired t-tests or one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used in the analysis. RESULTS: RNs used the EBP process to a moderate extent to inform and transform their clinical practice. There was a minor but significant decrease in practicing the EBP process from pre-pandemic to late in the pandemic. RNs who were most affected by the pandemic scored higher on the scale than less-affected colleagues. RNs in nonclinical positions reported more EBP activities, as did RNs in management positions. RNs working in outpatient settings reported more EBP activities than their colleagues in hospitals. LINKING EVIDENCE TO ACTION: It is imperative that RNs hone their skills in EBP if they are to be prepared for future healthcare crises. Healthcare providers have a duty to facilitate the development of EBP and, in this regard, RNs in clinical positions in hospitals need particular support.

Five-year results of a treatment program for chronic hepatitis B in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, less than 1% of treatment-eligible chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receive antiviral therapy. Experiences from local CHB programs are needed to inform treatment guidelines and policies on the continent. Here, we present 5-year results from one of the first large-scale CHB treatment programs in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Adults with CHB were enrolled in a pilot treatment program in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in 2015. Liver enzymes, viral markers, and transient elastography were assessed at baseline and thereafter at 6-month intervals. Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate was initiated based on the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) criteria, with some modifications. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: In total, 1303 patients were included in the program, of whom 291 (22.3%) started antiviral therapy within the initial 5 years of follow-up. Among patients on treatment, estimated 5-year hepatocellular carcinoma-free survival was 99.0% in patients without cirrhosis at baseline, compared to 88.8% in patients with compensated cirrhosis, and 54.2% in patients with decompensated cirrhosis (p < 0.001). The risk of death was significantly higher in patients with decompensated cirrhosis at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio 44.6, 95% confidence interval 6.1-328.1) and in patients older than 40 years (adjusted hazard ratio 3.7, 95% confidence interval 1.6-8.5). Liver stiffness declined significantly after treatment initiation; the median change from baseline after 1, 3, and 5 years of treatment was - 4.0 kPa, - 5.2 kPa, and - 5.6 kPa, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot program demonstrates the long-term benefits of CHB therapy in a resource-limited setting. The high mortality in patients with cirrhosis underscores the need for earlier detection of CHB and timely initiation of antiviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02344498) on January 26, 2015.

Voluntary risk mitigation behaviour can reduce impact of SARS-CoV-2: a real-time modelling study of the January 2022 Omicron wave in England.

BACKGROUND: Predicting the likely size of future SARS-CoV-2 waves is necessary for public health planning. In England, voluntary "plan B" mitigation measures were introduced in December 2021 including increased home working and face coverings in shops but stopped short of restrictions on social contacts. The impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on future SARS-CoV-2 burden is unknown. METHODS: We developed a rapid online survey of risk mitigation behaviours ahead of the winter 2021 festive period and deployed in two longitudinal cohort studies in the UK (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and TwinsUK/COVID Symptom Study (CSS) Biobank) in December 2021. Using an individual-based, probabilistic model of COVID-19 transmission between social contacts with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant parameters and realistic vaccine coverage in England, we predicted the potential impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave in England in terms of the effective reproduction number and cumulative infections, hospital admissions and deaths. Using survey results, we estimated in real-time the impact of voluntary risk mitigation behaviours on the Omicron wave in England, if implemented for the entire epidemic wave. RESULTS: Over 95% of survey respondents (NALSPAC = 2686 and NTwins = 6155) reported some risk mitigation behaviours, with vaccination and using home testing kits reported most frequently. Less than half of those respondents reported that their behaviour was due to "plan B". We estimate that without risk mitigation behaviours, the Omicron variant is consistent with an effective reproduction number between 2.5 and 3.5. Due to the reduced vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Omicron variant, our modelled estimates suggest that between 55% and 60% of the English population could be infected during the current wave, translating into between 12,000 and 46,000 cumulative deaths, depending on assumptions about severity and vaccine effectiveness. The actual number of deaths was 15,208 (26 November 2021-1 March 2022). We estimate that voluntary risk reduction measures could reduce the effective reproduction number to between 1.8 and 2.2 and reduce the cumulative number of deaths by up to 24%. CONCLUSIONS: Predicting future infection burden is affected by uncertainty in disease severity and vaccine effectiveness estimates. In addition to biological uncertainty, we show that voluntary measures substantially reduce the projected impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant but that voluntary measures alone would be unlikely to completely control transmission.

Combined effect of adiposity and elevated inflammation on incident type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Adiposity and elevated inflammation are two hallmarks of hyperglycemia. However, it is unknown whether clustering of elevated inflammation and adiposity interact act on diabetogenesis and lead to a greater risk for incident type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: Adiposity was indicated by body mass index, waist circumference and ultrasonography-measured fatty liver degrees. Elevated inflammation was indicated as high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels ≥ 2 mg/L. Time-to-event survival analyses were conducted to investigate the joint effect of adiposity and inflammation on incident T2D on both multiplicative and additive scales. RESULTS: Among 82,172 non-diabetic participants from a prospective cohort in China, 14,278 T2D occurred over a median follow-up of 11 years. In the multivariable-adjusted model, elevated inflammation [1.12 (1.08‒1.16)] and adiposity [1.76 (1.69‒1.83) for overweight/obesity, 1.49 (1.44‒1.55) for central obesity, and 2.02 (1.95‒2.09) for fatty liver] were significantly associated with incident diabetes. Higher adiposity-associated risks and incidence rates of diabetes were observed with elevated inflammation. When studying the joint effect, the adjusted HRs were 1.77 (1.69‒1.85) for overweight/obesity, 1.14 (1.06‒1.23) for elevated inflammation, and 2.08 (1.97‒2.19) for their joint effect, with a relative excess risk due to interaction of 0.17 (0.05‒0.28). The attributable proportions were 71.30% for overweight/obesity, 12.96% for elevated inflammation, and 15.74% for their interaction. Similar results were observed when adiposity was assessed as waist circumference or fatty liver. CONCLUSIONS: Adiposity and elevated inflammation synergically lead to greater risks of incident diabetes than addition of each individual exposure. Strategies simultaneously targeting both risks should produce more benefits for diabetes prevention than through initiatives directed at each separate risk.

Impact of anxiety and depression across childhood and adolescence on adverse outcomes in young adulthood: a UK birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Little is still known about the long-term impact of childhood and adolescent persistent depression and anxiety in adulthood. AIMS: To investigate the impact of persistent anxiety, depression, and comorbid anxiety and depression across childhood and adolescence on the development of multiple adverse outcomes in young adulthood. METHOD: This study used data from 8122 participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort. The Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA) examined child anxiety and depression symptomatology. The DAWBA generalised anxiety and mood subscales at 8, 10 and 13 years were selected, and a measure of comorbid anxiety and depression symptoms was created at each time point. Further, several mental and physical health, substance misuse and education/employment problems were assessed at 24 years. Latent class growth analyses were used to detect trajectories of anxiety, depression and comorbid anxiety and depression; and logistic regression to examine how persistent anxiety, depression or both were associated with adverse outcomes at 24 years. RESULTS: All three classes with persistent anxiety, depression or both were significantly associated with presenting with any mental health problems and any education/employment problem. Persistent high levels of depression and high levels of comorbid anxiety and depression, but not persistent high anxiety, were significantly associated with any physical health problem. High levels of comorbid anxiety and depression was the only DAWBA domain significantly associated with substance misuse; and overall, this was the domain that exerted the greatest negative impact, as it presented the highest odd ratio values. CONCLUSIONS: Children and adolescents with comorbid anxiety and depression are at the highest risk for having more adverse outcomes at 24 years.

Mismatch negativity and clinical trajectories in psychotic disorders: Five-year stability and predictive utility.

BACKGROUND: Mismatch negativity (MMN) amplitude is reduced in psychotic disorders and associated with symptoms and functioning. Due to these robust associations, it is often considered a biomarker for psychotic illness. The relationship between MMN and clinical outcomes has been examined well in early onset psychotic illness; however, its stability and predictive utility in chronic samples are not clear. METHOD: We examined the five-year stability of MMN amplitude over two timepoints in individuals with established psychotic disorders (cases; N = 132) and never-psychotic participants (NP; N = 170), as well as longitudinal associations with clinical symptoms and functioning. RESULTS: MMN amplitude exhibited good temporal stability (cases, r = 0.53; never-psychotic, r = 0.52). In cases, structural equation models revealed MMN amplitude to be a significant predictor of worsening auditory hallucinations (ß = 0.19), everyday functioning (ß = -0.13), and illness severity (ß = -0.12) at follow-up. Meanwhile, initial IQ (ß = -0.24), negative symptoms (ß = 0.23), and illness severity (ß = -0.16) were significant predictors of worsening MMN amplitude five years later. CONCLUSIONS: These results imply that MMN measures a neural deficit that is reasonably stable up to five years. Results support disordered cognition and negative symptoms as preceding reduced MMN, which then may operate as a mechanism driving reductions in everyday functioning and the worsening of auditory hallucinations in chronic psychotic disorders. This pattern may inform models of illness course, clarifying the relationships amongst biological mechanisms of predictive processing and clinical deficits in chronic psychosis and allowing us to better understand the mechanisms driving such impairments over time.

Longitudinal associations between alcohol use, smoking, genetic risk scoring and symptoms of depression in the general population: a prospective 6-year cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption, smoking and mood disorders are leading contributors to the global burden of disease and are highly comorbid. Yet, their interrelationships have remained elusive. The aim of this study was to examine the multi-cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between (change in) smoking and alcohol use and (change in) number of depressive symptoms. METHODS: In this prospective, longitudinal study, 6646 adults from the general population were included with follow-up measurements after 3 and 6 years. Linear mixed-effects models were used to test multi-cross-sectional and longitudinal associations, with smoking behaviour, alcohol use and genetic risk scores for smoking and alcohol use as independent variables and depressive symptoms as dependent variables. RESULTS: In the multi-cross-sectional analysis, smoking status and number of cigarettes per day were positively associated with depressive symptoms (p < 0.001). Moderate drinking was associated with less symptoms of depression compared to non-use (p = 0.011). Longitudinally, decreases in the numbers of cigarettes per day and alcoholic drinks per week as well as alcohol cessation were associated with a reduction of depressive symptoms (p = 0.001-0.028). Results of genetic risk score analyses aligned with these findings. CONCLUSIONS: While cross-sectionally smoking and moderate alcohol use show opposing associations with depressive symptoms, decreases in smoking behaviour as well as alcohol consumption are associated with improvements in depressive symptoms over time. Although we cannot infer causality, these results open avenues to further investigate interventions targeting smoking and alcohol behaviours in people suffering from depressive symptoms.

Bidirectional relationships between cannabis use, anxiety and depressive symptoms in the mediation of the association with psychotic experience: further support for an affective pathway to psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence suggests that people use cannabis to ameliorate anxiety and depressive symptoms, yet cannabis also acutely worsens psychosis and affective symptoms. However, the temporal relationship between cannabis use, anxiety and depressive symptoms and psychotic experiences (PE) in longitudinal studies is unclear. This may be informed by examination of mutually mediating roles of cannabis, anxiety and depressive symptoms in the emergence of PE. METHODS: Data were derived from the second longitudinal Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study. Mediation analysis was performed to examine the relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE, using KHB logit in STATA while adjusting for age, sex and education status. RESULTS: Cannabis use was found to mediate the relationship between preceding anxiety, depressive symptoms and later PE incidence, but the indirect contribution of cannabis use was small (for anxiety: % of total effect attributable to cannabis use = 1.00%; for depression: % of total effect attributable to cannabis use = 1.4%). Interestingly, anxiety and depressive symptoms were found to mediate the relationship between preceding cannabis use and later PE incidence to a greater degree (% of total effect attributable to anxiety = 17%; % of total effect attributable to depression = 37%). CONCLUSION: This first longitudinal cohort study examining the mediational relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE, shows that there is a bidirectional relationship between cannabis use, anxiety/depressive symptoms and PE. However, the contribution of anxiety/depressive symptoms as a mediator was greater than that of cannabis.

Menstrual abnormalities after COVID-19 vaccination in the Netherlands: A description of spontaneous and longitudinal patient-reported data.

AIMS: During the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, the number of reports of menstrual abnormalities increased rapidly. Here, we describe the nature and potential risk factors associated with menstrual abnormalities based on spontaneously reporting data as well as data from a prospective cohort event monitoring (CEM) study as these are poorly studied. METHODS: Reports of menstrual abnormalities received by the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb in the spontaneous reporting system between February 2021 and April 2022 were summarized. In addition, logistic regression analysis was performed on the reported menstrual abnormalities in the CEM study to assess the association between person characteristics, prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and use of hormonal contraceptives and the occurrence of menstrual abnormalities after vaccination. RESULTS: We analysed over 24 000 spontaneous reports of menstrual abnormalities and over 500 episodes (among 16 929 included women) of menstrual abnormalities in the CEM study. The CEM study showed an incidence of 41.4 per 1000 women aged ≤54 years. Amenorrhoea/oligomenorrhoea and heavy menstrual bleeding collectively accounted for about half of all abnormalities reported. Significant associations were observed for the age group 25-34 years (odds ratio 2.18; 95% confidence interval 1.45-3.41) and the Pfizer vaccine (odds ratio 3.04; 95% confidence interval 2.36-3.93). No association was observed for body mass index and presence of most comorbidities assessed. CONCLUSION: The cohort study showed a high incidence of menstrual disorders among women aged ≤54 years, and this observation was supported by the analysis of spontaneous reports. This suggests that a relation between COVID-19 vaccination and menstrual abnormalities is plausible and should be further investigated.

Alcohol use and cognitive aging in middle-aged men: The Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging.

OBJECTIVE: To determine associations of alcohol use with cognitive aging among middle-aged men. METHOD: 1,608 male twins (mean 57 years at baseline) participated in up to three visits over 12 years, from 2003-2007 to 2016-2019. Participants were classified into six groups based on current and past self-reported alcohol use: lifetime abstainers, former drinkers, very light (1-4 drinks in past 14 days), light (5-14 drinks), moderate (15-28 drinks), and at-risk drinkers (>28 drinks in past 14 days). Linear mixed-effects regressions modeled cognitive trajectories by alcohol group, with time-based models evaluating rate of decline as a function of baseline alcohol use, and age-based models evaluating age-related differences in performance by current alcohol use. Analyses used standardized cognitive domain factor scores and adjusted for sociodemographic and health-related factors. RESULTS: Performance decreased over time in all domains. Relative to very light drinkers, former drinkers showed worse verbal fluency performance, by -0.21 SD (95% CI -0.35, -0.07), and at-risk drinkers showed faster working memory decline, by 0.14 SD (95% CI 0.02, -0.20) per decade. There was no evidence of protective associations of light/moderate drinking on rate of decline. In age-based models, light drinkers displayed better memory performance at advanced ages than very light drinkers (+0.14 SD; 95% CI 0.02, 0.20 per 10-years older age); likely attributable to residual confounding or reverse association. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol consumption showed minimal associations with cognitive aging among middle-aged men. Stronger associations of alcohol with cognitive aging may become apparent at older ages, when cognitive abilities decline more rapidly.

Recruiting and retaining community-based participants in a COVID-19 longitudinal cohort and social networks study: lessons from Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies are critical to informing evolving responses to COVID-19 but can be hampered by attrition bias, which undermines their reliability for guiding policy and practice. We describe recruitment and retention in the Optimise Study, a longitudinal cohort and social networks study that aimed to inform public health and policy responses to COVID-19. METHODS: Optimise recruited adults residing in Victoria, Australia September 01 2020-September 30 2021. High-frequency follow-up data collection included nominating social networks for study participation and completing a follow-up survey and four follow-up diaries each month, plus additional surveys if they tested positive for COVID-19 or were a close contact. This study compared number recruited to a-priori targets as of September 302,021, retention as of December 31 2021, comparing participants retained and not retained, and follow-up survey and diary completion October 2020-December 2021. Retained participants completed a follow-up survey or diary in each of the final three-months of their follow-up time. Attrition was defined by the number of participants not retained, divided by the number who completed a baseline survey by September 302,021. Survey completion was calculated as the proportion of follow-up surveys or diaries sent to participants that were completed between October 2020-December 2021. RESULTS: At September 302,021, 663 participants were recruited and at December 312,021, 563 were retained giving an overall attrition of 15% (n = 100/663). Among the 563 retained, survey completion was 90% (n = 19,354/21,524) for follow-up diaries and 89% (n = 4936/5560) for monthly follow-up surveys. Compared to participants not retained, those retained were older (t-test, p <  0.001), and more likely to be female (χ2, p = 0.001), and tertiary educated (χ2, p = 0.018). CONCLUSION: High levels of study retention and survey completion demonstrate a willingness to participate in a complex, longitudinal cohort study with high participant burden during a global pandemic. We believe comprehensive follow-up strategies, frequent dissemination of study findings to participants, and unique data collection systems have contributed to high levels of study retention.