Nationwide law enforcement impact on the pet bird trade in China.

Conservation enforcement is a direct strategy to combat illegal wildlife trade in open markets. Yet, its large-scale effectiveness has not been widely assessed due to the lack of extensive market data. Between August 2016 and June 2017, a national coordinated enforcement campaign led by the leading Chinese authority to combat illegal migratory bird trade coincided with the largest-ever pet bird market survey across China by voluntary birdwatchers before and after the enforcement, which served as a unique natural experiment. Across 73 markets from 22 Chinese provinces, the dataset contains 140,723 birds of 346 species from 48 families and recorded a drastic decline in bird abundance traded after enforcement. Notably, species protected under China's Wildlife Protection Law declined significantly, while commercially bred species increased, although responses to enforcement were spatially heterogeneous. Our model showed that the national protection level was the best predictor for the trend of traded species, even after accounting for confounding factors such as regional baseline enforcement pressure and wild native bird populations. However, the widely traded native songbirds were not offered adequate national protection. Future policies should consider the pet bird trade patterns, target key areas of trade, and develop a more systematic market survey design to monitor trade.

The causal effect of mental health on labor market outcomes: The case of stress-related mental disorders following a human-made disaster.

As disasters increase due to climate change, population density, epidemics, and technology, information is needed about postdisaster consequences for people's mental health and how stress-related mental disorders affect multiple spheres of life, including labor-market attachment. We tested the causal hypothesis that individuals who developed stress-related mental disorders as a consequence of their disaster exposure experienced subsequent weak labor-market attachment and poor work-related outcomes. We leveraged a natural experiment in an instrumental variables model, studying a 2004 fireworks factory explosion disaster that precipitated the onset of stress-related disorders (posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression) among individuals in the local community (N = 86,726). We measured labor-market outcomes using longitudinal population-level administrative data: sick leave, unemployment benefits, early retirement pension, and income from wages from 2007 to 2010. We found that individuals who developed a stress-related disorder after the disaster were likely to go on sickness benefit, both in the short- and long-term, were likely to use unemployment benefits and to lose wage income in the long term. Stress-related disorders did not increase the likelihood of early retirement. The natural experiment design minimized the possibility that omitted confounders biased these effects of mental health on work outcomes. Addressing the mental health and employment needs of survivors after a traumatic experience may improve their labor-market outcomes and their nations' economic outputs.

Large motherhood penalties in US administrative microdata.

Whereas previous research has described motherhood penalties in US survey data, we leverage administrative data on 811,000 quarterly earnings histories from the US Unemployment Insurance program. We analyze contexts where smaller motherhood penalties might be expected: couples where the woman outearns her male partner prior to childbearing, at firms that are headed by women, and at firms that are predominantly women. Our startling result is that none of these propitious contexts appear to diminish the motherhood penalty, and indeed, the gap often increases in magnitude over time following childbearing. We estimate one of the largest motherhood penalties in "female-breadwinner" families, where higher-earning women experience a 60% drop from their prechildbirth earnings relative to their male partners. Turning to proximate mechanisms, women are less likely to switch to a higher-paying firm postchildbearing than men and are substantially more likely to quit the labor force. On the whole, our findings are discouraging relative even to existing research on motherhood penalties.

Two-dimensional constrained chaos and industrial revolution cycles.

Since the 1760s, at least three industrial revolutions have occurred. To explain this phenomenon, we introduce two-dimensional (2D) constrained chaos. Using a model of innovation dynamics, we show that an industrial-revolution-like technology burst, driven by investment/saving motives for R&D activities, recurs about every one hundred years if the monopolistic use of a new technology lasts about 8 y.

Distribution of capitalized benefits from land conservation.

Land conservation efforts throughout the United States sustain ecological benefits while generating wealth in the housing market through capitalization of amenities. This paper estimates the benefits of conservation that are capitalized into proximate home values and quantifies how those benefits are distributed across demographic groups. Using detailed property and household-level data from Massachusetts, we estimate that new land conservation led to $62 million in new housing wealth equity. However, houses owned by low-income or Black or Hispanic households are less likely to be located near protected areas, and hence, these populations are less likely to benefit financially. Direct study of the distribution of this new wealth from capitalized conservation is highly unequal, with the richest quartile of households receiving 43%, White households receiving 91%, and the richest White households receiving 40%, which is nearly 140% more than would be expected under equal distribution. We extend our analysis using census data for the entire United States and observe parallel patterns. We estimate that recent land conservation generated $9.8 billion in wealth through the housing market and that wealthier and White households benefited disproportionately. These findings suggest regressive and racially disparate incidence of the wealth benefits of land conservation policy.

Consolidation trends in vascular surgery.

BACKGROUND: Practice consolidation by vertical and horizontal integration is a growing trend in surgery. Practice consolidation has not been previously examined in vascular surgery. METHODS: The Medicare Provider Enrollment, Chain, and Ownership System data were used to identify vascular providers and vascular surgery practices in the United States in 2015 and 2020. Practices were categorized as solo (1 surgeon), small (2), medium (3-5), and large (≥6). The number of providers and the number of practices in each size group were determined. The Hirfendahl-Hirshman index (HHI), a measure of market consolidation, was calculated. Provider count, practice size, and HHI were additionally analyzed by urban and rural regions. All values were calculated for each time point and compared. RESULTS: Vascular providers increased in number from 2929 to 3154 (7.7%) from 2015 to 2020. The number of practices decreased from 1351 to 1090 (19.3%). The number of large practices increased by 49.4%; the number of small or solo practices decreased by 42.1%. The mean HHI increased from 0.486 in 2015 to 0.498 in 2020. Both urban and rural regions had a decrease in solo practices (43.3% and 2.3%, respectively) and an increase in HHI (from 0.499 to 0.509 and 0.793 to 0.818, respectively). All changes were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: From 2015 to 2020, there is a trend toward vascular providers working in larger practice groups and a corresponding increase in measures of market consolidation.

Treatment patterns and patient journey in progressive pulmonary fibrosis: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: For patients with interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) presenting with a progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) phenotype, current knowledge of disease characteristics at diagnosis, patient journey, and treatment is limited. This study aimed to describe demographics and clinical experiences of patients presenting with PPF in a European real-world setting. METHODS: Data were analysed from the Adelphi Real World PPF-ILD Disease Specific Programme™, a cross-sectional survey of pulmonologists and rheumatologists in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom) and internal medicine specialists (France) from April to October 2022. Physicians provided data for up to 12 consecutive patients with physician-confirmed ILD with a progressive phenotype other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Analyses were descriptive. RESULTS: Overall, 265 physicians reported on 1,335 patients. Mean (standard deviation) age at survey date was 60.4 (11.6) years, 91.2% were white, 58.1% female, 44.0% non-smokers. Most patients (63.3%) first consulted a primary care physician. There was a mean delay of 7.8 (22.7) months between first ILD symptom and healthcare professional visit, and another 7.7 (12.8) months to ILD diagnosis. At survey date, 47.7% of patients had physician-reported moderate ILD, 42.3% had mild ILD and 10.0% had severe ILD. Disease progression was reported in the 12 months prior to the survey for 19.5% of patients; of these, progression was based on worsening symptom in 27.3% and lung function decline in 25.8%. For patients experiencing symptoms prior to ILD diagnosis (72.8%), the most common symptoms were dyspnoea on exertion (80.5%) and cough (57.8%). Overall, 17.4% of patients were misdiagnosed prior to ILD diagnosis, with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease suspected in 39.2% of them. The most frequent comorbidities were anxiety (16.9%) and gastroesophageal reflux (15.5%). Although 77.8% of patients were receiving treatment for ILD at survey date, 15.6% of patients had never been prescribed treatment for ILD. CONCLUSIONS: This real-world study expands our understanding of patients, diagnostic delays and treatment gaps experienced by patients diagnosed with PPF in Europe. There was a mean delay of 15.5 months between first ILD symptoms and ILD diagnosis. Given the progressive nature of PPF, diagnostic delay may lead to poor outcomes, including shorter survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/a.

Factors related to knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors regarding cervical cancer among Yemeni women.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer (CxCa), although preventable, is still among the most prevalent cancers in women. Mortality from this cancer is high, especially in low-income countries where preventive strategies are often lacking. We studied the knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding CxCa among Yemeni women. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 2019 among 399 women in five major hospitals in Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews using structured questionnaires. We used logistic regression models to analyze the likelihood of hearing about CxCa, believing that CxCa is treatable and preventable, awareness of the Pap smear test, and ever having this test, in relation to participant's age, education level, working outside the household, and family history of CxCa. RESULTS: Only 66.7% of the women had heard of CxCa. Women with higher education, working outside the household, and with a family history of CxCa were more likely to be aware of CxCa. Working outside the household was the only variable related to a higher likelihood of knowing that CxCa is a treatable and preventable. Furthermore, women with a family history of CxCa were more likely to have knowledge about Pap smear test and were more likely to have Pap smear test in the past. CONCLUSION: This study identified a low awareness of CxCa and its prevention among Yemeni women. In order to reduce the burden of CxCa in Yemen and save women's lives, it is necessary to raise women's awareness of this disease, especially among those with lower education and those not involved in work outside their homes.

Labour market integration among young adults diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) at working age.

METHODS: Multiple Swedish nationwide registers were used to identify 8045 individuals, aged 20-29, with an incident diagnosis of ADHD 2006-2011. Labour market integration was conceptualized according to the core-peripheral model as a continuum from a strong (core) to a weak (peripheral) connection to the labour market. Sequence analyses categorized clusters of labour market integration, from 1 year before to 5 years after their ADHD diagnosis for individuals diagnosed with ADHD and a matched control group without ADHD. Multinomial logistic regression computed odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) between sociodemographic factors and comorbid disorders and the identified clusters. RESULTS: About one-fourth of the young adults diagnosed with ADHD belonged to clusters characterized by a transition to a mainly peripheral labour market position, which was approximately four-times higher compared to controls without ADHD. Foremost, those living in small cities/villages (OR 1.9; CI 1.5-2.2), those having comorbid autism-spectrum disorder (OR 13.7; CI 6.8-27.5) or schizophrenia/psychoses (OR 7.8; CI 3.8-15.9) were associated with a transition towards a peripheral labour market position throughout the study period. Those with a high educational level (OR 0.1; CI 0.1-0.1), and men (OR 0.7; CI 0.6-0.8) were less likely to have a peripheral labour market position. CONCLUSIONS: Young adults diagnosed with ADHD are four-times more likely to be in the peripheral labour market position compared to those without ADHD. To increase labour market participation, special attention is warranted to those with low educational level, those living outside big cities and those with comorbid mental disorders.

Life Cycle of LiFePO4 Batteries: Production, Recycling, and Market Trends.

Significant attention has focused on olivine-structured LiFePO4 (LFP) as a promising cathode active material (CAM) for lithium-ion batteries. This iron-based compound offers advantages over commonly used Co and Ni due to its lower toxicity abundance, and cost-effectiveness. Despite its current commercial use in energy storage technology, there remains a need for cost-effective production methods to create electrochemically active LiFePO4. Consequently, there is ongoing interest in developing innovative approaches for LiFePO4 production. While LFP batteries exhibit significant thermal stability, cycling performance, and environmental benefits, their growing adoption has increased battery disposal rates. Improper disposal practices for waste LFP batteries result in environmental degradation and the depletion of valuable resources. This review comprehensively examines diverse synthesis approaches for generating LFP powders, encompassing conventional methodologies alongside novel procedures. Furthermore, it conducts an in-depth assessment of the methodologies employed in recycling waste LFP batteries. Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of LFP cathode recycling and investigates pretreatment techniques to enhance understanding. Additionally, it provides valuable insights into the recycling process of used LFP batteries, aiming to raise awareness regarding the market for retired LFP batteries and advocate for the enduring sustainability of lithium-ion batteries.

Physical job demands in pregnancy and associated musculoskeletal health and employment outcomes: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: A decline in musculoskeletal health during pregnancy is an underappreciated adverse outcome of pregnancy that can have immediate and long-term health consequences. High physical job demands are known risk factors for nontraumatic musculoskeletal disorders in the general working population. Evidence from meta-analyses suggest that occupational lifting and prolonged standing during pregnancy may increase risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. This systematic review examined associations between occupational lifting or postural load in pregnancy and associated musculoskeletal disorders and related sequalae. DATA SOURCES: Five electronic databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, NIOSHTIC-2, and Ergonomic Abstracts) were searched from 1990 to July 2022 for studies in any language. A Web of Science snowball search was performed in December 2022. Reference lists were manually reviewed. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Eligible studies reported associations between occupational lifting or postural load and musculoskeletal health or sequelae (eg, employment outcomes) among pregnant and postpartum workers. METHODS: Data were extracted using a customized form to document study and sample characteristics; and details of exposures, outcomes, covariates, and analyses. Investigators independently assessed study quality for 7 risk-of-bias domains and overall utility, with discrepant ratings resolved through discussion. A narrative synthesis was conducted due to heterogeneity. RESULTS: Sixteen studies (11 cohort studies, 2 nested case-control studies, and 3 cross-sectional studies) from 8 countries were included (N=142,320 pregnant and N=1744 postpartum workers). Limited but consistent evidence with variable quality ratings, ranging from critical concern to high, suggests that pregnant workers exposed to heavy lifting (usually defined as ≥22 lbs or ≥10 kg) may be at increased risk of functionally limiting pelvic girdle pain and antenatal leave. Moreover, reports of dose-response relationships suggest graded risk levels according to lifting frequency, ranging from 21% to 45% for pelvic girdle pain and 58% to 202% for antenatal leave. Limited but consistent evidence also suggests that postural load increases the risk of employment cessation. CONCLUSION: Limited but consistent evidence suggests that pregnant workers exposed to heavy lifting and postural load are at increased risk of pelvic girdle pain and employment cessation. Job accommodations to reduce exposure levels may promote safe sustainable employment for pregnant workers.

Advances in microbial astaxanthin production.

This work explores astaxanthin (AXT), a valuable xanthophyll ketocarotenoid pigment with significant health benefits and diverse applications across various industries. It discusses the prevalence of synthetic AXT, and the development of natural-based alternatives derived from microorganisms such as microalgae, bacteria, and yeast. The chapter examines the potential of microbial AXT production, highlighting the advantages and challenges associated with natural AXT. Key microorganisms like Haematococcus pluvialis, Paracoccus carotinifaciens, and Phaffia rhodozyma are emphasized for their role in commercially producing this valuable ketocarotenoid. The narrative covers the complexities and opportunities in microbial AXT production, from cell structure implications to downstream processing strategies. Additionally, the chapter addresses current applications, commercialization trends, and market dynamics of natural microbial AXT, emphasizing the importance of cost-effective production, regulatory compliance, and technological advancements to reduce the market cost of the final product. As demand for natural microbial-based AXT rises, this chapter envisions a future where research, innovation, and collaboration drive sustainable and competitive microbial AXT production, fostering growth in this dynamic market.

Incorporating participants' welfare into sequential multiple assignment randomized trials.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequences of decision rules that recommend treatments based on patients' time-varying clinical conditions. The sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) is an experimental design that can provide high-quality evidence for constructing optimal DTRs. In a conventional SMART, participants are randomized to available treatments at multiple stages with balanced randomization probabilities. Despite its relative simplicity of implementation and desirable performance in comparing embedded DTRs, the conventional SMART faces inevitable ethical issues, including assigning many participants to the empirically inferior treatment or the treatment they dislike, which might slow down the recruitment procedure and lead to higher attrition rates, ultimately leading to poor internal and external validities of the trial results. In this context, we propose a SMART under the Experiment-as-Market framework (SMART-EXAM), a novel SMART design that holds the potential to improve participants' welfare by incorporating their preferences and predicted treatment effects into the randomization procedure. We describe the steps of conducting a SMART-EXAM and evaluate its performance compared to the conventional SMART. The results indicate that the SMART-EXAM can improve the welfare of the participants enrolled in the trial, while also achieving a desirable ability to construct an optimal DTR when the experimental parameters are suitably specified. We finally illustrate the practical potential of the SMART-EXAM design using data from a SMART for children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

Would banning menthol cigarettes, flavored cigars, and flavored e-cigarettes prompt users to seek illicit channels for obtaining them in the United States?

BACKGROUND: Banning flavors in tobacco and nicotine products may reduce youth initiation and prompt quit attempts but such bans may lead to illicit markets. We examined how likely current users would be to seek flavored products from illicit channels under various ban scenarios. METHODS: Cross-sectional surveys of 2552 current users of menthol cigarettes or flavored cigars and 2347 users of flavored e-cigarettes were conducted between 2021 and 2022 in the United States. For each ban scenario, respondents reported if they would have intentions to seek the banned flavored products from any illicit channels and identified the specific illicit channel they would consider. Logistic regressions were used to estimate how the likelihood of having intentions to seek illicit channels was associated with demographics, ban scenarios, and status of tobacco use. RESULTS: Under various ban scenarios, 24-30% of people who smoked said they would seek illicit channels to obtain the banned products compared with 21-41% of dual users and 35-39% of users of flavored e-cigarettes. Online retailers were favored by people who smoked while users of flavored e-cigarettes favored local retailers. Heavy users were more likely to say they would try illicit channels. Under bans restricting more types of flavored tobacco products, users would be less likely to try illegal channels. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of users of flavored tobacco and nicotine products would not reject using illicit banned products. Tailored programs are needed to apply to the groups with a higher risk of seeking illicit channels for banned products.

Financial Characteristics of Outcomes-Based Agreements: What Do Canadian Public Payers and Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Prefer?

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to gain insight into the financial characteristics of outcomes-based agreements (OBAs) considered most suitable to Canadian public payers and pharmaceutical manufacturers, and the rationale for their preferences. METHODS: A total of 17 public payers and pharmaceutical manufacturers participated in semistructured qualitative interviews, which assessed their knowledge of OBAs and their preferred financial characteristics. RESULTS: Payers identified 5 OBA financial models that they considered both acceptable and feasible, in no preferential order: (1) discontinuation of therapy, (2) rebates for nonresponders, (3) free trial period, (4) adjustable pricing, and (5) blended rebate. Payers had a clear preference for short-term OBAs (<1 year), whereas both payers and manufacturers agreed OBAs with longer durations (up to 5 years) would be manageable if appropriately designed. Six key success factors to design suitable and acceptable OBA financial models were identified, including the areas of interim reporting, easily measurable health outcomes, trusted data sources, engaging unbiased third-party data experts, harmonizing OBA billing methods, and the inclusion of budget caps. CONCLUSIONS: Manufacturers and payers showed high level of interest in OBAs and a robust understanding of their potential role in supporting timely market access for patients in need, with the caveat that they need to be carefully designed to provide value. Further opportunities for discussion and engagement between public payers and manufacturers are needed to establish how to implement OBAs at a pan-Canadian level and how individual provinces and territories can incorporate them within their existing governance infrastructures.

How to fight acute sun damage? Current skin care strategies.

Excessive exposure to sunlight can contribute for skin photo-damage, such as sunburn, dryness, wrinkles, hyperpigmentation, immunosuppressive events and skin sensitization reactions. The use of aftersun products is an effective strategy to reduce the visible signs and symptoms of acute photodamage in the skin. Aiming to unveil the active ingredients able to offset acute sun damage, this work focuses on the characterization of the aftersun products market. A total of 84 after-sun formulations from 41 international brands currently marketed in Portugal were analyzed concerning the composition described on the product label, identifying natural and synthetic/semi-synthetic ingredients with the ability to mitigate solar-induced effects. The majority of aftersun formulations contained ingredients derived from terrestrial and marine sources (> 80%). An in-depth examination of these compounds is also offered, revealing the top of the most used natural and synthetic/semi-synthetic ingredients present in aftersun products, as well as their mechanism of action. A critical appraisal of the scientific data was made aiming to highlight the scientific evidence of ingredients able to mitigate skin photodamage. Amino acids and peptides, and A. barbadensis extract were tested for their in vivo efficacy. Nevertheless, all the ingredients were analyzed with in vitro studies as preliminary screening before in vivo, ex vivo and/or clinical studies. In summary, this study provides an overview of the use of active ingredients in commercial aftersun products to understand better the benefits associated with their use in cosmetic formulations and identify opportunities for innovation.

Sentiment and attitudes toward offsetting and the biodiversity market in online media articles.

Biodiversity offsetting, a conservation approach to offset loss of habitat and ecosystem services, has been widely accepted and implemented in different legislative frameworks around the globe. I assigned sentiment scores (from -3 [very negative] to +3 [very positive]) to online news articles to examine public sentiment toward offsetting. I identified 86 pertinent articles published from 2013 to 2023 by web scraping online media outlets through keywords. I examined article content based on topics commonly associated in scientific literature with offsetting, such as risks or financial aspects. Most articles were from Australia (44%), 16% were from the United Kingdom, and 5% were from Colombia and Madagascar. Three distinct groups covered finances (n = 47), species, and social impacts of offsetting (n = 23) and offsetting frameworks (n = 16). Articles covering monetary and finance aspects had a lower predicted sentiment score (-0.72, 95% CI -0.98 to -0.47) than articles that covered new, alternative offsetting forms (-0.15, 95% CI -0.46 to 0.17), such as mitigation banking and credits. In articles focused on charismatic species and loss of livelihood, offsetting risk and social issues were associated with low sentiment scores (<-0.85). Sentiment scores were high for articles on offsetting at a multicountry or global scale (0.47, 95% CI -0.06 to 0.99), and scores were the lowest in Australia (-1.03, 95% CI -1.36 to -0.70). Public sentiment based on media articles was generally negative toward offsetting, and many of the ecological and methodological issues and risks were reflected in the articles, but mitigation measures as a prerequisite to offsetting were mentioned in only 18% of all articles. With the seemingly high public interest in conservation and hence offsetting, it will be imperative to expand the current breadth of information about offsetting that is being communicated or made available to the public.

Sentimientos y actitudes hacia la compensación y el mercado de biodiversidad en los artículos de medios virtuales Resumen La compensación por biodiversidad, una estrategia de conservación para compensar la pérdida del hábitat y de los servicios ambientales, ha sido aceptada e implementada ampliamente en diferentes marcos legislativos alrededor del mundo. Le asigné puntajes de sentimientos (desde ­3, muy negativo, hasta +3, muy positivo) a los artículos virtuales de noticias para analizar el sentimiento que tiene el público por la compensación. Identifiqué 86 artículos pertinentes publicados entre 2013 y 2023 mediante un raspado web de medios virtuales y palabras clave. Examiné el contenido de los artículos con base en temas asociados comúnmente en la literatura científica con las compensaciones, como los riesgos o aspectos económicos. La mayoría de los artículos provenían de Australia (44%), 16% del Reino Unido y 5% de Colombia y Madagascar. Tres grupos distintivos abordaban las finanzas (n = 47), las especies y el impacto social de las compensaciones (n = 23) y el marco de las compensaciones (n = 16). Los artículos que abordaban los aspectos monetarios y financieros tuvieron un puntaje de sentimientos más bajo al pronosticado (­0.72, 95% IC ­0.98 a ­0.47) que los artículos que abordaban formas nuevas y alternativas de compensar (­0.15, 95% IC ­0.46 a 0.17), como los bancos de mitigación y los créditos. En los artículos que se enfocaron en especies carismáticas y la pérdida del sustento, el riesgo de compensación y los temas sociales estuvieron asociados con puntajes bajos para los sentimientos (<­0.85). Los puntajes de sentimientos fueron altos para los artículos sobre las compensaciones a escala global o para varios países (0.47, 95% IC ­0.06 a 0.99) y los puntajes fueron los más bajos en Australia (­1.03, 95% IC ­1.36 a ­0.70). El sentimiento público basado en los artículos de los medios fue en general negativo hacia las compensaciones y muchos de los temas ecológicos y metodológicos y los riesgos se reflejaron en los artículos, pero sólo se mencionó a las medidas de mitigación como prerrequisito para la compensación en 18% de los artículos. Con un aparente interés elevado del público en la conservación, y por lo tanto en la compensación, es imperativo que se expanda el alcance actual de la información sobre la compensación que se está comunicando o que está disponible para el público.

Quantifying species biases among multidata sources on illegal wildlife trade and its implications for conservation.

Unsustainable wildlife consumption and illegal wildlife trade (IWT) threaten biodiversity worldwide. Although publicly accessible data sets are increasingly used to generate insights into IWT, little is known about their potential bias. We compared three typical and temporally corresponding data sets (4204 court verdicts, 926 seizure news reports, and 219 bird market surveys) on traded birds native to China and evaluated their possible species biases. Specifically, we evaluated bias and completeness of sampling for species richness, phylogeny, conservation status, spatial distribution, and life-history characteristics among the three data sets when determining patterns of illegal trade. Court verdicts contained the largest species richness. In bird market surveys and seizure news reports, phylogenetic clustering was greater than that in court verdicts, where songbird species (i.e., Passeriformes) were detected in higher proportions in market surveys. The seizure news data set contained the highest proportion of species of high conservation priority but the lowest species coverage. Across the country, all data sets consistently reported relatively high species richness in south and southwest regions, but markets revealed a northern geographic bias. The species composition in court verdicts and markets also exhibited distinct geographical patterns. There was significant ecological trait bias when we modeled whether a bird species is traded in the market. Our regression model suggested that species with small body masses, large geographical ranges, and a preference for anthropogenic habitats and those that are not nationally protected were more likely to be traded illegally. The species biases we found emphasize the need to know the constraints of each data set so that they can optimally inform strategies to combat IWT.

Cuantificación del sesgo por especies entre fuentes de datos múltiples para el mercado ilegal de fauna y lo que implica para la conservación Resumen El consumo insostenible y el comercio ilegal de fauna y flora silvestres amenazan la biodiversidad en todo el mundo. Aunque los conjuntos de datos de acceso público se utilizan cada vez más para obtener información sobre el mercado ilegal de especies silvestres, se sabe poco sobre su posible sesgo. Comparamos tres conjuntos de datos típicos con correspondencia temporal (4,204 sentencias judiciales, 926 informes de noticias sobre incautaciones y 219 encuestas sobre mercados de aves) de aves autóctonas de China objeto de comercio y evaluamos sus posibles sesgos por especie. En concreto, evaluamos el sesgo y la exhaustividad del muestreo de la riqueza de especies, la filogenia, el estado de conservación, la distribución espacial y las características del ciclo vital entre los tres conjuntos de datos a la hora de determinar los patrones del mercado ilegal. Las sentencias judiciales contenían la mayor riqueza de especies. En los estudios de mercado de aves y en los informes de noticias sobre incautaciones, la agrupación filogenética fue mayor que en las sentencias judiciales, donde las especies de aves canoras (Passeriformes) se detectaron en mayor proporción en los estudios de mercado. El conjunto de datos de noticias sobre decomisos contenía la mayor proporción de especies de alta prioridad para la conservación, pero la menor cobertura de especies. En todo el país, todos los conjuntos de datos informaron sistemáticamente de una riqueza de especies relativamente alta en las regiones sur y suroeste, pero los mercados revelaron un sesgo geográfico septentrional. La composición por especies en los veredictos judiciales y en los mercados también mostró patrones geográficos distintos. Hubo un sesgo significativo de rasgos ecológicos cuando modelamos si una especie de ave se comercializa en el mercado. Nuestro modelo de regresión sugería que las especies con masas corporales pequeñas, grandes áreas de distribución geográfica y preferencia por los hábitats antropogénicos y las especies que no están protegidas a nivel nacional tenían más probabilidades de ser objeto de comercio ilegal. Los sesgos de las especies que hallamos resaltan la necesidad de conocer las limitaciones de cada conjunto de datos para poder informar de manera óptima las estrategias de lucha contra el comercio ilegal de especies silvestres.

Land-use change from market responses to oil palm intensification in Indonesia.

Oil palm is a major driver of tropical deforestation. A key intervention proposed to reduce the footprint of oil palm is intensifying production to free up spare land for nature, yet the indirect land-use implications of intensification through market forces are poorly understood. We used a spatially explicit land-rent modeling framework to characterize the supply and demand of oil palm in Indonesia under multiple yield improvement and demand elasticity scenarios and explored how shifts in market equilibria alter projections of crop expansion. Oil palm supply was sensitive to crop prices and yield improvements. Across all our scenarios, intensification raised agricultural rents and lowered the effectiveness of reductions in crop expansion. Increased yields lowered oil palm prices, but these price-drops were not sufficient to prevent further cropland expansion from increased agricultural rents under a range of price elasticities of demand. Crucially, we found that agricultural intensification might only result in land being spared when the demand relationship was highly inelastic and crop prices were very low (i.e., a 70% price reduction). Under this scenario, the extent of land spared (∼0.32 million ha) was countered by the continued establishment of new plantations (∼1.04 million ha). Oil palm intensification in Indonesia could exacerbate current pressures on its imperiled biodiversity and should be deployed with stronger spatial planning and enforcement to prevent further cropland expansion.

Cambios en el uso de suelo causados por la reacción del mercado a la intensificación de la palma aceitera en Indonesia Resumen La palma aceitera es una de las principales causas de la deforestación. Una intervención importante propuesta para reducir la huella de esta palma es la intensificación de la producción para que el suelo sobrante sea usado por la naturaleza, pero se sabe muy poco sobre las implicaciones del uso indirecto de suelo de la intensificación a través de las fuerzas del mercado. Usamos un marco de modelos de renta de suelo espacialmente explícito para caracterizar la oferta y demanda de la palma aceitera en Indonesia bajo varios escenarios de mejoras en la producción y elasticidad de demandas y exploramos cómo los cambios en el equilibrio del mercado alteran las proyecciones de la expansión agrícola. La oferta de palma aceitera fue susceptible a los precios de los cultivos y a las mejoras en la producción. La intensificación elevó la renta agrícola y redujo la efectividad de la reducción de la expansión agrícola en todos nuestros escenarios. El aumento en la producción bajó los precios de la palma, pero estas caídas no fueron suficientes para evitar la expansión agrícola a partir de las rentas agrícolas elevadas bajo un rango de elasticidad de precios de demanda. Más importante, descubrimos que la intensificación agrícola puede sólo resultar en que sobre el suelo cuando la relación de demanda casi no sea elástica y los precios de las cosechas sean muy bajos (una reducción del 70% en los precios). Bajo este escenario, la extensión de suelo sobrante (∼0.32 millones de ha) fue contrarrestado por el establecimiento continuo de nuevos sembradíos (∼1.04 millones de ha). La intensificación de la palma aceitera en Indonesia podría agravar las presiones existentes sobre su biodiversidad en peligro y debería implementarse con una mayor planeación espacial y aplicación para prevenir una expansión agrícola superior.

Impact of Flooding and Drought Risks on the Cost of Bond Financing for Water Utilities.

The global water cycle has experienced significant changes due to the interplay of climate shifts and human activities, resulting in more frequent and severe droughts and floods. These shifts have started to impact the operational efficiency of water treatment and delivery systems. This, in turn, has implications for the economic performance of these assets and the climate-impacted cost of their financing through the issuing of municipal bonds. Analyzing a decade of water bond data (2009-2019), this study offers empirical evidence for the impact of flood and drought risks on bond investor demand to offset water risks. The results reveal that bond markets factored in coastal flood risks between 2013 and 2019, adjusting by 3-6 basis points (bps) per risk score unit, and riverine flood risks from 2009 to 2013, with a 5-11 basis points increase per risk score unit. These effects were primarily driven by bonds issued in the Pacific Coast and Great Plains regions, respectively. In contrast, the pricing of drought risks in the bond market followed a more nuanced pattern. Additionally, we show the channeling effects of water consumption and investor perceptions of climate change on water risk pricing in the bond market. These findings have significant implications for water risk management in the public sector as regions with heightened water risk exposure are perceived as riskier by market participants, leading to a higher cost of capital for municipalities and water agencies.