Indigenous food production in a carbon economy.

Indigenous communities in the North American Arctic are characterized by mixed economies that feature hunting, fishing, gathering, and trapping activities-and associated sharing practices-alongside the formal wage economy. The region is also undergoing rapid social, economic, and climate changes, including, in Canada, carbon taxation, which is impacting the cost of fuel used in local food harvesting. Because of the importance of local foods to nutrition, health, and well-being in Arctic Indigenous communities, there is an urgent need to better understand the sensitivity of Arctic food systems to social, economic, and climate changes and to develop plans for mitigating potential adverse effects. Here, we develop a Bayesian model to calculate the substitution value and carbon emissions of market replacements for local food harvests in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Canada. Our estimates suggest that under plausible scenarios, replacing locally harvested foods with imported market substitutes would cost over 3.1 million Canadian dollars per year and emit over 1,000 tons of CO2-equivalent emissions per year, regardless of the shipping scenario. In contrast, we estimate that gasoline inputs to harvesting cost approximately $295,000 and result in 315 to 497 tons of emissions. These results indicate that climate change policies that fail to account for local food production may undermine emissions targets and adversely impact food security and health in Arctic Indigenous communities, who already experience a high cost of living and high rates of food insecurity.

Assessing the comprehensiveness and vertical coherence of climate change action plans: The case of Australia.

Climate change is an undeniable reality, prompting governments worldwide to devise strategies to avoid or reduce its adverse impacts. Ensuring the effectiveness of these strategies is crucial; they must be both comprehensive and coherent to minimize trade-offs. While substantial research has focused on assessing climate policy coherence within a single level of government (horizontal coherence), there is a relative scarcity of studies examining coherence between different levels of government (vertical coherence). This study adapts an evaluation framework from the literature and transforms it into two distinct assessment frameworks: one for evaluating the comprehensiveness and the other for assessing the vertical coherence of Climate Change Action Plans (CCAPs) from three levels of government (local, state, and national) in Australia. Adaptation and mitigation plans were assessed separately for five local government areas in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, and their respective states: New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia. National government plans received higher average comprehensive scores (83%) than state (75%) and local (71%) CCAPs. High coherence was observed between national and state levels, with significant variations between state and local levels. Sydney-New South Wales exhibited the highest coherence (90%), while Perth-Western Australia scored the lowest (35%). Key issues identified include a lack of exclusive climate change funding body and an inadequate assessment of vulnerability profiles in various plans. These findings provide insights for designing more comprehensive and integrated policy actions across multiple government levels. The refined frameworks can be applied to test the comprehensiveness and coherence of CCAPs in other contexts at various scales.

Global trends toward urban street-network sprawl.

We present a global time series of street-network sprawl-that is, sprawl as measured through the local connectivity of the street network. Using high-resolution data from OpenStreetMap and a satellite-derived time series of urbanization, we compute and validate changes over time in multidimensional street connectivity measures based on graph-theoretic and geographic concepts. We report on global, national, and city-level trends since 1975 in the street-network disconnectedness index (SNDi), based on every mapped node and edge in the world. Streets in new developments in 90% of the 134 most populous countries have become less connected since 1975, while just 29% show an improving trend since 2000. The same period saw a near doubling in the relative frequency of a street-network type characterized by high circuity, typical of gated communities. We identify persistence in street-network sprawl, indicative of path-dependent processes. Specifically, cities and countries with low connectivity in recent years also had relatively low preexisting connectivity in our earliest time period. We discuss implications for policy intervention in road building in new and expanding cities as a top priority for sustainable urban development.

Climate Change Policy Coherence across Policies, Plans, and Strategies in Pakistan-Implications for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Plan.

Climate Change (CC) adaptation and mitigation policy coherence (PC) across sectors is essential to effectively address CC challenges and support synergies. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to CC. In this paper, the extent to which Pakistan's national and provincial water, agriculture, and energy sector policies, development plans and strategies are aligned in a CC policy coherent manner is established. In this context, a qualitative content document analysis with associated scoring is used to assess government documents. Furthermore, implications of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Initiative (CPEC; 2017-2030), the biggest infrastructure investment program ever in Pakistan, are discussed. An important result is that sectoral policies are found to have different degrees of PC. Better coherence is found at federal than at provincial levels. Furthermore, CC policies are found to be more coherently addressed in water and agriculture policies than in energy policies. It is suggested that to achieve higher levels of CC PC, federal and provincial governments should establish mechanisms of intergovernmental consultation for policy-making and cross-sectoral planning, especially in the energy sector. Our findings can help the Government of Pakistan to transform CPEC into a model green Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region. In this context, there are important implications with regards to e.g., reducing coal-based energy projects and environmentally damaging infrastructure activities in sensitive ecosystems. With this paper, the authors want to raise awareness of the key importance of CC PC, particular in context of the BRI. Many countries participating in the initiative have carbon reduction targets in place.

COVID-19 and EU Climate Targets: Can We Now Go Further?

This paper examines the implications of the COVID-19 crisis on the 2030 EU CO2 emissions target, considering a range of economic growth scenarios. With lower economic activity resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, we find that existing climate policy measures could overshoot the current 40% EU target in 2030. If policymakers consequently relax climate policy measures to maintain the 2030 target, the opportunity will be missed to align EU climate policy with longer-term Paris emissions mitigation goals. Our analysis highlights that although existing climate policy measures will likely reduce emissions more than 40% by 2030 in the wake of the pandemic, they will not be enough to meet the Paris agreement. More stringent measures, such as those proposed under the Green New Deal, will still be needed and may be less costly than previously estimated.

Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Anthropogenic emissions of methane in the United States.

This study quantitatively estimates the spatial distribution of anthropogenic methane sources in the United States by combining comprehensive atmospheric methane observations, extensive spatial datasets, and a high-resolution atmospheric transport model. Results show that current inventories from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research underestimate methane emissions nationally by a factor of ∼1.5 and ∼1.7, respectively. Our study indicates that emissions due to ruminants and manure are up to twice the magnitude of existing inventories. In addition, the discrepancy in methane source estimates is particularly pronounced in the south-central United States, where we find total emissions are ∼2.7 times greater than in most inventories and account for 24 ± 3% of national emissions. The spatial patterns of our emission fluxes and observed methane-propane correlations indicate that fossil fuel extraction and refining are major contributors (45 ± 13%) in the south-central United States. This result suggests that regional methane emissions due to fossil fuel extraction and processing could be 4.9 ± 2.6 times larger than in EDGAR, the most comprehensive global methane inventory. These results cast doubt on the US EPA's recent decision to downscale its estimate of national natural gas emissions by 25-30%. Overall, we conclude that methane emissions associated with both the animal husbandry and fossil fuel industries have larger greenhouse gas impacts than indicated by existing inventories.

Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy.

Japanese urban household carbon footprints during early-stage COVID-19 pandemic were consistent with those over the past decade.

As urbanization accelerates worldwide, substantial energy and services are required to meet the demand from cities, making cities major contributors to adverse environmental consequences. To bridge the knowledge gap in the absence of fine-grained city-level climate protection measures due to data availability and accuracy, this study provides a detailed carbon emission inventory for analyzing the monthly fluctuations based on citizens' daily consumption behaviors. Here, carbon emissions embodied in approximately 500 household consumption items were calculated in 47 prefectural-level cities in Japan from 2011 to June 2021. We analyzed the results considering the regional, seasonal, demand, and emission way-specific aspects, and compared the emission before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the carbon footprints during the pandemic were consistent with the previous level despite downtrends in specific categories. This study provides an example of utilizing city-level emission data to improve household green consumption behavior as references for enriching city-level decarbonization paths.

Transforming planning and policy making processes at the intersections of climate, equity, and decolonization challenges.

Cities are facing increasing pressures to address complex challenges of climate change, equity, and reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples as intersecting issues, and innovation into planning and policy-making processes is urgently needed to achieve this. It is no longer good enough to work on these challenges discreetly, or solely within the dominant, western colonial paradigm and practices of governance. There are ongoing harms being caused by climate work that does not embed justice, and there are missed opportunities for synergies across these domains as they have the same systemic root causes. Cities must adapt and transform the processes and practices of planning and policy-making in order to work at these problematic roots. Drawing on an empirical study, this article describes how social innovation, systemic design, and decolonizing practices can shape a different approach to planning and policy-making processes when working at the intersections of climate, equity, and decolonization.

Endorsement of scientific inquiry promotes better evaluation of climate policy evidence.

Public and scientific consensus about climate change do not align. Problematically, higher scientific knowledge has been associated with lower acceptance of climate information among those with more conservative socio-political ideologies. Positive attitudes towards science can attenuate this effect. We investigated the association between endorsement of scientific inquiry (ESI) and decision-making with scientific evidence about climate policies. Participants rated support for 16 climate policies accompanied by weaker or stronger evidence. In study 1 (N = 503), higher ESI was associated with greater discernment between strongly and weakly evidenced climate policies, irrespective of worldview. In studies 2 (N = 402) and 3 (N = 600), an ESI intervention improved discrimination, and, in study 3, increased ESI specifically for hierarchical/individualistic participants. Unlike ESI, the link between scientific knowledge and evaluation of evidence was influenced by worldview. Increasing ESI might improve the evaluation of scientific evidence and increase public support for evidence-based climate policies. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03535-y.

Climate policy conflict in the U.S. states: a critical review and way forward.

Many U.S. states have taken significant action on climate change in recent years, demonstrating their commitment despite federal policy gridlock and rollbacks. Yet, there is still much we do not know about the agents, discourses, and strategies of those seeking to delay or obstruct state-level climate action. We first ask, what are the obstacles to strong and effective climate policy within U.S. states? We review the political structures and interest groups that slow action, and we examine emerging tensions between climate justice and the technocratic and/or market-oriented approaches traditionally taken by many mainstream environmental groups. Second, what are potential solutions for overcoming these obstacles? We suggest strategies for overcoming opposition to climate action that may advance more effective and inclusive state policy, focusing on political strategies, media framing, collaboration, and leveraging the efforts of ambitious local governments.

Progress of Local Health Department Planning Actions for Climate Change: Perspectives from California, USA.

Public health departments are on the frontlines of protecting vulnerable groups and working to eliminate health disparities through prevention interventions, disease surveillance and community education. Exploration of the roles national, state and local health departments (LHDs) play in advancing climate change planning and actions to protect public health is a developing arena of research. This paper presents insights from local public health departments in California, USA on how they addressed the barriers to climate adaptation planning with support from the California Department of Public Health's Office of Health Equity Climate Change and Health Equity Section (OHE), which administers the California Building Resilience Against Climate Effects Project (CalBRACE). With support from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI), CalBRACE initiated an adaptation project to seed climate planning and actions in county health departments. In this study, we compared the barriers and strategies of twenty-two urban and rural LHDs and explored potential options for climate change adaptation in the public health framework. Using key informant interviews and document reviews, the results showed how engagement with CalBRACE's Local Health Department Partnership on Climate Change influenced the county departments' ability to overcome barriers to adaptation through the diversification of funding sources, the leveraging strategic collaborations, extensive public education and communication campaigns, and the development of political capital and champions. The lessons learned and recommendations from this research may provide pathways and practices for national, state and local level health departments to collaborate in developing protocols and integrating systems to respond to health-related climate change impacts, adaptation and implementation.

Does biomass material footprint converge? Evidence from club convergence analysis.

Although several studies explored the issue of CO2/Ecological footprint convergence across the countries, study on biomass material footprint (BMF) convergence is scant. This study bridges this research gap by examining the "BMF convergence hypothesis" across 172 countries for the period from 1990 to 2017. To attain our objective, we use the novel Phillips and Sul (J Appl Econom 24(7):1153-1185, 2007a; Econometrica 75:1771-1855, 2007b) approach. We find that there is no evidence of convergence, while 172 countries are taken together. This implies that all the countries together are having different transition paths. Thus, Phillips and Sul test implements the clustering algorithms to identify the club convergence. Our results show the existence of six different steady-state (or club convergence) equilibriums for BMF. Thus, our findings show that climate change policies are required to be designed as per the existing clubs of the sample countries.

A Transdisciplinary Approach to Address Climate Change Adaptation for Human Health and Well-Being in Africa.

The health sector response to dealing with the impacts of climate change on human health, whether mitigative or adaptive, is influenced by multiple factors and necessitates creative approaches drawing on resources across multiple sectors. This short communication presents the context in which adaptation to protect human health has been addressed to date and argues for a holistic, transdisciplinary, multisectoral and systems approach going forward. Such a novel health-climate approach requires broad thinking regarding geographies, ecologies and socio-economic policies, and demands that one prioritises services for vulnerable populations at higher risk. Actions to engage more sectors and systems in comprehensive health-climate governance are identified. Much like the World Health Organization's 'Health in All Policies' approach, one should think health governance and climate change together in a transnational framework as a matter not only of health promotion and disease prevention, but of population security. In an African context, there is a need for continued cross-border efforts, through partnerships, blending climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction, and long-term international financing, to contribute towards meeting sustainable development imperatives.

Heatwaves intensification in Australia: A consistent trajectory across past, present and future.

Heatwaves are defined as unusually high temperature events that occur for at least three consecutive days with major impacts to human health, economy, agriculture and ecosystems. This paper investigates: 1) changes in heatwave characteristics such as peak temperature, number of events, frequency and duration over a past 67-year period in Australia; 2) projected changes in heatwave characteristics for this century in Queensland, northeast Australia; and 3) the avoided heatwave impacts of limiting global warming by 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C. The results reveal that heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration across Australia over the past 67 years, such intensification was particularly higher on recent decades. Downscaled future climate projections for Queensland suggest that heatwaves will further intensify over the current century. The projections also highlight that distinct climatic regions within Queensland may have different heatwave responses under global warming, where tropical and equatorial heatwaves appear to be more sensitive to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations than temperate and arid regions. The results offer new insights to support climate adaptation and mitigation at regional scales. These findings are already being used by health and emergency services to inform the development of statewide policies to mitigate heatwave impacts.

Club convergence of per capita carbon emission: global insight from disaggregated level data.

This study aims to examine the convergence hypothesis of per capita carbon dioxide emission and its component such as coal, oil, and gas in the case of 53 countries covering the period of 1980 to 2016. In particular, we study whether countries are moving toward a common steady-state equilibrium condition in the per capita carbon emission or converging into different groups. To do so, this study used Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6): 1771-1855, 2007, J Appl Econ 24(7): 1153-1185, 2009) technique. Our results show no evidence of convergence for full sample. However, our results support the evidence of two club convergence of total emission, emission from gas and petroleum consumption, while three clubs are noticed in case of per capita carbon dioxide emission from coal use. This invalidates the equality rule of participation of each country in climate change policy. Further, similar results emerge in case of total emission and petroleum where club 1 consists of mostly developed countries while club 2 has a large number of developing countries. Interestingly, we do not find any divergence behavior across all countries in the sample. We find that natural gas is the major component to drive the total carbon emission convergence in case of our sample countries.

Climate Change From a Distance: An Analysis of Construal Level and Psychological Distance From Climate Change.

The public perception of climate change as abstract and distant may undermine climate action. According to construal level theory, whether a phenomenon is perceived as psychologically distant or close is associated with whether it is construed as abstract or concrete, respectively. Previous work has established a link between psychological distance and climate action, but the associated role of construal level has yet to be explored in depth. In two representative surveys of Australians (N = 217 and N = 216), and one experiment (N = 319), we tested whether construal level and psychological distance from climate change predicted pro-environmental intentions and policy support, and whether manipulating distance and construal increased pro-environmental behaviors such as donations. Results showed that psychological closeness to climate change predicted more engagement in pro-environmental behaviors, while construal level produced inconsistent results, and manipulations of both variables failed to produce increases in pro-environmental behaviors. In contrast with the central tenet of construal level theory, construal level was unrelated to psychological distance in all three studies. Our findings suggest that the hypothesized relationship between construal level and psychological distance may not hold in the context of climate change, and that it may be difficult to change pro-environmental behavior by manipulating these variables.

Influences on Adoption of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets among US States, 1998-2008.

While the United States has not established federal regulations for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, many US states have adopted their own standards and guidelines. In this study we examine state adoption of targets for GHG reductions during the ten-year period of 1998-2008, and identify factors that explain variation in target adoption. Potential influences are drawn from research from the public policy formulation and diffusion literature, and from studies specific to climate policy adoption. Potential influences on GHG reduction efforts among US states include socioeconomic attributes of residents, political and ideological orientations of citizens and state government, interest group activities, environmental pressures, and proximity to other states that have adopted GHG reduction targets. The findings of the multinomial logistic regression analysis indicate that states are more likely to adopt GHG reduction targets if they share a border with another state with a similar climate program and if their citizens are more ideologically liberal. Other factors including socioeconomic resources and interest group activities were not found to be associated with policy adoption. The findings yield insights into the conditions under which states are more likely to take action to reduce GHG's, and are relevant both to state policy makers and residents with an interest in climate planning, and for researchers attempting to estimate future greenhouse gas reduction scenarios.