Habitat fragmentation decouples fire-stimulated flowering from plant reproductive fitness.

Many plant species in historically fire-dependent ecosystems exhibit fire-stimulated flowering. While greater reproductive effort after fire is expected to result in increased reproductive outcomes, seed production often depends on pollination, the spatial distribution of prospective mates, and the timing of their reproductive activity. Fire-stimulated flowering may thus have limited fitness benefits in small, isolated populations where mating opportunities are restricted and pollination rates are low. We conducted a 6-y study of 6,357 Echinacea angustifolia (Asteraceae) individuals across 35 remnant prairies in Minnesota (USA) to experimentally evaluate how fire effects on multiple components of reproduction vary with population size in a common species. Fire increased annual reproductive effort across populations, doubling the proportion of plants in flower and increasing the number of flower heads 65% per plant. In contrast, fire's influence on reproductive outcomes differed between large and small populations, reflecting the density-dependent effects of fire on spatiotemporal mating potential and pollination. In populations with fewer than 20 individuals, fire did not consistently increase pollination or annual seed production. Above this threshold, fire increased mating potential, leading to a 24% increase in seed set and a 71% increase in annual seed production. Our findings suggest that density-dependent effects of fire on pollination largely determine plant reproductive outcomes and could influence population dynamics across fire-dependent systems. Failure to account for the density-dependent effects of fire on seed production may lead us to overestimate the beneficial effects of fire on plant demography and the capacity of fire to maintain plant diversity, especially in fragmented habitats.

Seasonality, density dependence, and spatial population synchrony.

Studies of spatial population synchrony constitute a central approach for understanding the drivers of ecological dynamics. Recently, identifying the ecological impacts of climate change has emerged as a new important focus in population synchrony studies. However, while it is well known that climatic seasonality and sequential density dependence influences local population dynamics, the role of season-specific density dependence in shaping large-scale population synchrony has not received attention. Here, we present a widely applicable analytical protocol that allows us to account for both season and geographic context-specific density dependence to better elucidate the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic sources of population synchrony, including the renowned Moran effect. We exemplify our protocol by analyzing time series of seasonal (spring and fall) abundance estimates of cyclic rodent populations, revealing that season-specific density dependence is a major component of population synchrony. By accounting for deterministic sources of synchrony (in particular season-specific density dependence), we are able to identify stochastic components. These stochastic components include mild winter weather events, which are expected to increase in frequency under climate warming in boreal and Arctic ecosystems. Interestingly, these weather effects act both directly and delayed on the vole populations, thus enhancing the Moran effect. Our study demonstrates how different drivers of population synchrony, presently altered by climate warming, can be disentangled based on seasonally sampled population time-series data and adequate population models.

Patterns and inferred causes of liana mortality in a tropical forest.

Lianas are major contributors to tropical forest dynamics, yet we know little about their mortality. Using overlapping censuses of the lianas and trees across a 50 ha stand of moist tropical forest, we contrasted community-wide patterns of liana mortality with relatively well-studied patterns of tree mortality to quantify patterns of liana death and identify contributing factors. Liana mortality rates were 172% higher than tree mortality rates, but species-level mortality rates of lianas were similar to trees with 'fast' life-history strategies and both growth forms exhibited similar spatial and size-dependent patterns. The mortality rates of liana saplings (<2.1 cm in diameter), which represent about 50% of liana individuals, decreased with increasing disturbance severity and remained consistently low during post-disturbance stand thinning. In contrast, larger liana individuals and trees of all sizes had elevated mortality rates in response to disturbance and their mortality rates decreased over time since disturbance. Within undisturbed forest patches, liana mortality rates increased with increasing soil fertility in a manner similar to trees. The distinct responses of liana saplings to disturbance appeared to distinguish liana mortality from that of trees, whereas similarities in their patterns of death suggest that there are common drivers of woody plant mortality.

Coherent long-term body-size responses across all Northwest Atlantic herring populations to warming and environmental change despite contrasting harvest and ecological factors.

Body size is a key component of individual fitness and an important factor in the structure and functioning of populations and ecosystems. Disentangling the effects of environmental change, harvest and intra- and inter-specific trophic effects on body size remains challenging for populations in the wild. Herring in the Northwest Atlantic provide a strong basis for evaluating hypotheses related to these drivers given that they have experienced significant warming and harvest over the past century, while also having been exposed to a wide range of other selective constraints across their range. Using data on mean length-at-age 4 for the sixteen principal populations over a period of 53 cohorts (1962-2014), we fitted a series of empirical models for temporal and between-population variation in the response to changes in sea surface temperature. We find evidence for a unified cross-population response in the form of a parabolic function according to which populations in naturally warmer environments have responded more negatively to increasing temperature compared with those in colder locations. Temporal variation in residuals from this function was highly coherent among populations, further suggesting a common response to a large-scale environmental driver. The synchrony observed in this study system, despite strong differences in harvest and ecological histories among populations and over time, clearly indicates a dominant role of environmental change on size-at-age in wild populations, in contrast to commonly reported effects of fishing. This finding has important implications for the management of fisheries as it indicates that a key trait associated with population productivity may be under considerably less short-term management control than currently assumed. Our study, overall, illustrates the need for a comparative approach within species for inferences concerning the many possible effects on body size of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the wild.

Improving wild animal welfare through contraception.

To date, research on the welfare impacts of wildlife contraceptives has mostly been focused on the potential harms of contraceptives. However, there are compelling theoretical reasons to expect direct and indirect welfare benefits of wildlife contraceptives. These positive welfare effects would be experienced by more than just the treated individuals, because per capita resource availability will increase with decreasing numbers of individuals sharing a resource. In the present article, we discuss the potential for wildlife contraceptives to alleviate resource competition and their associated negative welfare effects at different scales. These effects are expected to vary across contexts and would presumably be stronger when wildlife contraceptives are used with the explicit purpose of improving wild animal welfare. The potential for considerable welfare gains for wildlife through the targeted use of contraceptives highlights the importance of both species-specific studies on the welfare benefits of wildlife contraceptives and further research on the links between population dynamics and wild animal welfare.

Cooperation in public goods game does not require assortment and depends on population density.

The threshold public goods game is one of the best-known models of non-linear public goods dilemmas. Cooperators and defectors typically coexist in this game when the population is assumed to follow the so-called structured deme model. In this article, we develop a dynamical model of a general N-player game in which there is no deme structure: Individuals interact with randomly chosen neighbours and selection occurs between randomly chosen pairs of individuals. We show that in the deterministic limit, the dynamics in this model leads to the same replicator dynamics as in the structured deme model, i.e., coexistence of cooperators and defectors is typical in threshold public goods game even when the population is completely well mixed. We extend the model to study the effect of density dependence and density fluctuation on the dynamics. We show analytically and numerically that decreasing population density increases the equilibrium frequency of cooperators till the fixation of this strategy, but below a critical density cooperators abruptly disappear from the population. Our numerical investigations show that weak density fluctuations enhance cooperation, while strong fluctuations suppress it.

A taste of space: Remote animal observations and discrete-choice models provide new insights into foraging and density dynamics for a large subarctic herbivore.

Competition for resources and space can drive forage selection of large herbivores from the bite through the landscape scale. Animal behaviour and foraging patterns are also influenced by abiotic and biotic factors. Fine-scale mechanisms of density-dependent foraging at the bite scale are likely consistent with density-dependent behavioural patterns observed at broader scales, but few studies have directly tested this assertion. Here, we tested if space use intensity, a proxy of spatiotemporal density, affects foraging mechanisms at fine spatial scales similarly to density-dependent effects observed at broader scales in caribou. We specifically assessed how behavioural choices are affected by space use intensity and environmental processes using behavioural state and forage selection data from caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) observed from GPS video-camera collars using a multivariate discrete-choice modelling framework. We found that the probability of eating shrubs increased with increasing caribou space use intensity and cover of Salix spp. shrubs, whereas the probability of eating lichen decreased. Insects also affected fine-scale foraging behaviour by reducing the overall probability of eating. Strong eastward winds mitigated negative effects of insects and resulted in higher probabilities of eating lichen. At last, caribou exhibited foraging functional responses wherein their probability of selecting each food type increased as the availability (% cover) of that food increased. Space use intensity signals of fine-scale foraging were consistent with density-dependent responses observed at larger scales and with recent evidence suggesting declining reproductive rates in the same caribou population. Our results highlight potential risks of overgrazing on sensitive forage species such as lichen. Remote investigation of the functional responses of foraging behaviours provides exciting future applications where spatial models can identify high-quality habitats for conservation.

Multifaceted density dependence: Social structure and seasonality effects on Serengeti lion demography.

Interactions between density and environmental conditions have important effects on vital rates and consequently on population dynamics and can take complex pathways in species whose demography is strongly influenced by social context, such as the African lion, Panthera leo. In populations of such species, the response of vital rates to density can vary depending on the social structure (e.g. effects of group size or composition). However, studies assessing density dependence in populations of lions and other social species have seldom considered the effects of multiple socially explicit measures of density, and-more particularly for lions-of nomadic males. Additionally, vital-rate responses to interactions between the environment and various measures of density remain largely uninvestigated. To fill these knowledge gaps, we aimed to understand how a socially and spatially explicit consideration of density (i.e. at the local scale) and its interaction with environmental seasonality affect vital rates of lions in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We used a Bayesian multistate capture-recapture model and Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate lion stage-specific survival and between-stage transition rates, as well as reproduction probability and recruitment, while testing for season-specific effects of density measures at the group and home-range levels. We found evidence for several such effects. For example, resident-male survival increased more strongly with coalition size in the dry season compared with the wet season, and adult-female abundance affected subadult survival negatively in the wet season, but positively in the dry season. Additionally, while our models showed no effect of nomadic males on adult-female survival, they revealed strong effects of nomads on key processes such as reproduction and takeover dynamics. Therefore, our results highlight the importance of accounting for seasonality and social context when assessing the effects of density on vital rates of Serengeti lions and of social species more generally.

Assessing the sensitivity and resistance of communities in a changing environment.

We propose that the ecological resilience of communities to permanent changes of the environment can be based on how variation in the overall abundance of individuals affects the number of species. Community sensitivity is defined as the ratio between the rate of change in the log expected number of species and the rate of change in the log expected number of individuals in the community. High community sensitivity means that small changes in the total abundance strongly impact the number of species. Community resistance is the proportional reduction in expected number of individuals that the community can sustain before expecting to lose one species. A small value of community resistance means that the community can only endure a small reduction in abundance before it is expected to lose one species. Based on long-term studies of four bird communities in European deciduous forests at different latitudes large differences were found in the resilience to environmental perturbations. Estimating the variance components of the species abundance distribution revealed how different processes contributed to the community sensitivity and resistance. Species heterogeneity in the population dynamics was the largest component, but its proportion varied among communities. Species-specific response to environmental fluctuations was the second major component of the variation in abundance. Estimates of community sensitivity and resistance based on data only from a single year were in general larger than those based on estimates from longer time series. Thus, our approach can provide rapid and conservative assessment of the resilience of communities to environmental changes also including only short-term data. This study shows that a general ecological mechanism, caused by increased strength of density dependence due to reduction in resource availability, can provide an intuitive measure of community resilience to environmental variation. Our analyses also illustrate the importance of including specific assumptions about how different processes affect community dynamics. For example, if stochastic fluctuations in the environment affect all species in a similar way, the sensitivity and resistance of the community to environmental changes will be different from communities in which all species show independent responses.

Fine-scale genetic structure in the orchid Gymnadenia conopsea is not associated with local density of flowering plants.

PREMISE: Density-dependent pollinator visitation can lead to density-dependent mating patterns and within-population genetic structure. In Gymnadenia conopsea, individuals in low-density patches receive more self pollen than individuals in high-density patches, suggesting higher relatedness at low density. Ongoing fragmentation is also expected to cause more local matings, potentially leading to biparental inbreeding depression. METHODS: To evaluate whether relatedness decreases with local density, we analyzed 1315 SNP loci in 113 individuals within two large populations. We quantified within-population genetic structure in one of the populations, recorded potential habitat barriers, and visualized gene flow using estimated effective migration surfaces (EEMS). We further estimated the magnitude of biparental inbreeding depression that would result from matings restricted to within 5 m. RESULTS: There was no significant relationship between local density and relatedness in any population. We detected significant fine-scale genetic structure consistent with isolation by distance, with positive kinship coefficients at distances below 10 m. Kinship coefficients were low, and predicted biparental inbreeding depression resulting from matings within the closest 5 m was a modest 1-3%. The EEMS suggested that rocks and bushes may act as barriers to gene flow within a population. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that increased self-pollen deposition in sparse patches does not necessarily cause higher selfing rates or that inbreeding depression results in low establishment success of inbred individuals. The modest relatedness suggests that biparental inbreeding depression is unlikely to be an immediate problem following fragmentation of large populations. The results further indicate that habitat structure may contribute to governing fine-scale genetic structure in G. conopsea.

Density-dependent dispersal reduces conflict over the sex ratio.

Haplodiploids-in particular, wasps-are the workhorses of sex-allocation research. This is owing to their unusual system of sex determination, which provides a ready means of sex ratio adjustment. Notably, their sexually asymmetrical mode of genetic inheritance leads mothers and fathers to come into conflict over the sex ratio of their offspring. In the simplest outbreeding scenario, a mother is favoured to employ an even sex ratio while a father prefers that all his mate's offspring are female. An important modulator of evolutionary conflict between mating partners is genetic relatedness, raising the possibility that this sex ratio conflict is reduced in low-dispersal settings with mating occurring between relatives. However, the impact of population viscosity on sex ratio conflict in haplodiploids remains unknown. Here, we develop and analyse a kin-selection model to investigate how the rate of dispersal modulates sex ratio conflict in a haplodiploid, viscous population setting. We find that population viscosity is associated with a reduction in the extent of sex ratio conflict-the effect being very weak under density-independent dispersal and much stronger under density-dependent dispersal.

The ecology of giant kelp colonization and its implications for kelp forest restoration.

The success and cost-effectiveness of kelp forest restoration hinges on understanding the colonization ecology of kelps, particularly with respect to dispersal potential, recruitment success, and subsequent establishment. To gain needed insight into these processes we examined spatial patterns and temporal trajectories of the colonization of a large artificial reef by the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera. The 151 ha artificial reef complex was constructed in three phases over 21 years, enabling dispersal, recruitment, and subsequent establishment to be examined for a wide range of environmental conditions, dispersal distances, and source population sizes. Natural colonization of all phases of the artificial reef by giant kelp was rapid (within 1 year) and extended across the entire 7-km-long reef complex. Colonization density declined with distance from the nearest source population, but only during the first phase when the distance from the nearest source population was ≤3.5 km. Despite this decline, recruitment on artificial reef modules farthest from the source population was sufficient to produce dense stands of kelp within a couple of years. Experimental outplanting of the artificial reef with laboratory-reared kelp embryos was largely successful but proved unnecessary, as the standing biomass of kelp resulting from natural recruitment exceeded that observed on nearby natural reefs within 2-3 years of artificial reef construction for all three phases. Such high potential for natural colonization following disturbance has important implications for kelp forest restoration efforts that employ costly and logistically difficult methods to mimic this process by active seeding and transplanting.

Aeromonas salmonicida, causative agent of salmonid furunculosis, isolated from the freshwater parasitic copepod, Salmincola californiensis.

Here, we provide evidence that the freshwater parasitic copepod, Salmincola californiensis, acts as a vector for Aeromonas salmonicida. While investigating the effects of S. californiensis on Chinoook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), we tangentially observed that fish infected with the copepod developed furunculosis, caused by A. salmonicida. This occurred despite being reared in pathogen-free well water in a research facility with no prior history of spontaneous infection. We further investigated the possibility of S. californiensis to serve as a vector for the bacterium via detection of fluorescently labelled A. salmonicida inside the egg sacs from copepods in which the fish hosts were experimentally infected with GFP-A449 A. salmonicida. We then evaluated copepod egg sacs that were collected from adult Chinook salmon from a freshwater hatchery with A. salmonicida infections confirmed by either culture or PCR. The bacterium was cultured on tryptic soy agar plates from 75% of the egg sacs, and 61% were positive by PCR. These three separate experiments indicate an alternative tactic of transmission in addition to direct transmission of A. salmonicida in captivity. The copepod may play an important role in transmission of the bacterium when fish are more dispersed, such as in the wild.

Reduction in size-at-maturity in unprecedentedly strong cohorts of redfish (Sebastes mentella and S. fasciatus) in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Laurentian Channel.

Life-history traits, such as size-at-maturity, are key parameters to model population dynamics used to inform fisheries management. Fishery-induced evolution, density-dependent effects, and global warming have been shown to affect size- and age-at-maturity, and resulting spawning stock biomass (SSB) in a wide range of commercial fish stocks. Marked changes in redfish biomass and environmental conditions in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Laurentian Channel over the past decade called for a review and update of size-at-maturity for commercially important deepwater redfish Sebastes mentella and Acadian redfish Sebastes fasciatus stocks. Following a 25-year moratorium, local redfish biomass has recently reached unprecedented levels, co-occurring with an overall warming of bottom water temperatures. Our objectives were (1) to perform a histological assessment of redfish reproduction stages, including the validation and fine-tuning of a robust visual chart to facilitate monitoring of size-at-maturity and SSB in a transforming environment, and (2) to evaluate changes in size-at-maturity in unprecedentedly strong cohorts of redfish, and consequences for stock status assessment and fisheries management. Each specimen was genetically identified to species, and gonad reproduction stages were determined by histology and macroscopic appearances. The present study enabled a robust visual chart for continued and cost-effective monitoring of redfish reproduction stages to be refined and validated, and has shown a large decrease in redfish length when 50% of the individuals are considered mature that led to an increase in estimates of SSB during the 2011-2021 period for S. mentella and S. fasciatus. These changes modified the perception of stock status, thus having significant implications for fisheries management. Given that fishery-induced evolution and community structure changes along with global warming are affecting numerous stocks worldwide, the present study outlines a major and global challenge for scientists and resources managers. As shown by our results, the monitoring and frequent updates of life-history traits in transforming environments are needed to provide reliable science advice for sustainable fisheries.

Recruitment dynamics of juvenile salmonids: Comparisons among populations and with classic case studies.

Understanding recruitment, the process by which individuals are added to a population or to a fishery, is critical for understanding population dynamics and facilitating sustainable fisheries management. Important variation in recruitment dynamics is observed among populations, wherein some populations exhibit asymptotic productivity and others exhibit overcompensation (i.e., compensatory density-dependence in recruitment). Our ability to understand this interpopulation variability in recruitment patterns is limited by a poor understanding of the underlying mechanisms, such as the complex interactions between density dependence, recruitment, and environment. Furthermore, most studies on recruitment are conducted using an observational design with long time series that are seldom replicated across populations in an experimentally controlled fashion. Without proper replication, extrapolations between populations are tenuous, and the underlying environmental trends are challenging to quantify. To address these issues, we conducted a field experiment manipulating stocking densities of juvenile brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in three wild populations to show that these neighboring populations-which exhibit divergent patterns of density dependence due to environmental conditions-also have important differences in recruitment dynamics. Testing against four stock-recruitment models (density independent, linear, Beverton-Holt, and Ricker), populations exhibited ~twofold variation in asymptotic productivity, with no overcompensation following a Beverton-Holt model. Although environmental variables (e.g., temperature, pH, depth, substrate) correlated with population differences in recruitment, they did not improve the predictive power in individual populations. Comparing our patterns of recruitment with classic salmonid case studies revealed that despite differences in the shape and parameters of the curves (i.e., Ricker vs. Beverton-Holt), a maximum stocking density of about five YOY fish/m2 emerged. Higher densities resulted in very marginal increases in recruitment (Beverton-Holt) or reduced recruitment due to overcompensation (Ricker).

Drivers of growth in strong year classes of the deepwater redfish (Sebastes mentella) population from the Gulf of St. Lawrence derived from otolith increment-based growth chronologies.

The case of the deepwater redfish (Sebastes mentella) in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (GSL) is a compelling example of drastic fluctuations in annual recruitment strength, characteristic of spasmodic stocks. After three decades of low abundance, the emergence of three consecutive strong year classes in 2011-2013 resulted in an unprecedented increase in biomass. In spasmodic stocks such as GSL redfish, strong year classes sustain both the biomass and catch for decades. Therefore, understanding the growth dynamics of these cohorts is essential. In the present study, we reconstructed the annual growth rates of redfish using otolith increment-based annual chronology and investigated the drivers of growth variation in redfish strong year classes of the early 2010s and early 1980s. Stock biomass was identified as the main extrinsic driver of redfish growth, suggesting intense competition for food at high conspecific density. Warming of deep waters in the GSL, where adult redfish settle, positively correlated with individual growth. However, recent warming of the cold intermediate layer showed a negative correlation with redfish growth, likely related to the shrinking of the habitat this water mass provides for various redfish cold-water prey rather than to a direct effect of temperature. Reconstruction of redfish annual growth trajectories from birth to capture emphasized the importance of carryover effects in the growth potential of strong year classes. This work provided an important first outlook of the factors driving growth variation in GSL redfish spasmodic stock and explored midterm consequences of density-dependent pressures on biological parameters of the population.

Density-dependent habitat selection alters drivers of population distribution in northern Yellowstone elk.

Although it is well established that density dependence drives changes in organismal abundance over time, relatively little is known about how density dependence affects variation in abundance over space. We tested the hypothesis that spatial trade-offs between food and safety can change the drivers of population distribution, caused by opposing patterns of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) that are predicted by the multidimensional ideal free distribution. We addressed this using winter aerial survey data of northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus canadensis) spanning four decades. Supporting our hypothesis, we found positive DDHS for food (herbaceous biomass) and negative DDHS for safety (openness and roughness), such that the primary driver of habitat selection switched from food to safety as elk density decreased from 9.3 to 2.0 elk/km2 . Our results demonstrate how population density can drive landscape-level shifts in population distribution, confounding habitat selection inference and prediction and potentially affecting community-level interactions.

Estimating Density Dependence, Environmental Variance, and Long-Term Selection on a Stage-Structured Life History.

AbstractA method for analyzing long-term demographic data on density-dependent stage-structured populations in a stochastic environment is derived to facilitate comparison of populations and species with different life histories. We assume that a weighted sum of stage abundances, N, exerts density dependence on stage-specific vital rates of survival and reproduction and that N has a small or moderate coefficient of variation. The dynamics of N are approximated as a univariate stochastic process governed by three key parameters: the density-independent growth rate, the net density dependence, and environmental variance in the life history. We show how to estimate the relative weighs of stages in N and the key parameters. Life history evolution represents a stochastic maximization of a simple function of the key parameters. The long-term selection gradient on the life history can be expressed as a vector of sensitivities of this function with respect to density-independent, density-dependent, and stochastic components of the vital rates. To illustrate the method, we analyze 38 years of demographic data on a great tit population, estimating the key parameters, which accurately predict the observed mean, coefficient of variation, and fluctuation rate of N; we also evaluate the long-term selection gradient on the life history.

The role of spatial structure in at-risk metapopulation recoveries.

Metapopulations are often managed as a single contiguous population despite the spatial structure underlying their local and regional dynamics. Disturbances from human activities can also be spatially structured with mortality impacts concentrated to just a few local populations among the aggregate. Scale transitions between local and regional processes can generate emergent properties whereby the whole system can fail to recover as quickly as expected for an equivalent single population. Here, we draw on theory and empirical case studies to ask: what is the consequence of spatially structured ecological and disturbance processes on metapopulation recoveries? We suggest that exploring this question could help address knowledge gaps for managing metapopulations including: Why do some metapopulations recover quickly while others remain collapsed? And, what risks are unaccounted for when metapopulations are managed at aggregate scales? First, we used model simulations to examine how scale transitions among ecological and disturbance conditions interact to generate emergent metapopulation recovery outcomes. In general, we found that the spatial structure of disturbance was a strong determinant of recovery outcomes. Specifically, disturbances that unevenly impacted local populations consistently generated the slowest recoveries and highest conservation risks. Ecological conditions that dampened metapopulation recoveries included low dispersal, variable local demography, sparsely connected habitat networks, and spatially and temporally correlated stochastic processes. Second, we illustrate the unexpected challenges of managing metapopulations by examining the recoveries of three USA federally listed endangered species: Florida Everglade snail kites, California and Alaska sea otters, and Snake River Chinook salmon. Overall, our results show the pivotal role of spatial structure in metapopulation recoveries whereby the interplay between local and regional processes shapes the resilience of the whole system. With this understanding, we provide guidelines for resource managers tasked with conserving and managing metapopulations and identify opportunities for research to support the application of metapopulation theory to real-world challenges.

Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis.

Integral projection models (IPMs) can estimate the population dynamics of species for which both discrete life stages and continuous variables influence demographic rates. Stochastic IPMs for imperiled species, in turn, can facilitate population viability analyses (PVAs) to guide conservation decision-making. Biphasic amphibians are globally distributed, often highly imperiled, and ecologically well suited to the IPM approach. Herein, we present a stochastic size- and stage-structured IPM for a biphasic amphibian, the U.S. federally threatened California tiger salamander (CTS) (Ambystoma californiense). This Bayesian model reveals that CTS population dynamics show greatest elasticity to changes in juvenile and metamorph growth and that populations are likely to experience rapid growth at low density. We integrated this IPM with climatic drivers of CTS demography to develop a PVA and examined CTS extinction risk under the primary threats of habitat loss and climate change. The PVA indicated that long-term viability is possible with surprisingly high (20%-50%) terrestrial mortality but simultaneously identified likely minimum terrestrial buffer requirements of 600-1000 m while accounting for numerous parameter uncertainties through the Bayesian framework. These analyses underscore the value of stochastic and Bayesian IPMs for understanding both climate-dependent taxa and those with cryptic life histories (e.g., biphasic amphibians) in service of ecological discovery and biodiversity conservation. In addition to providing guidance for CTS recovery, the contributed IPM and PVA supply a framework for applying these tools to investigations of ecologically similar species.