The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change.

An increasing amount of California's landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.

Climate resilience through ecocultural stewardship.

The climate crisis has exacerbated many ecological and cultural problems including wildfire and drought vulnerability, biodiversity declines, and social justice and equity. While there are many concepts of social and ecological resilience, the exemplar practices of Indigenous stewardship are recognized in having sustained Indigenous peoples and their countries for millennia and past climate change events. California has been at the crossroads of many of these issues, and the historic and current contributions of Indigenous peoples to addressing these provide an excellent study of ecocultural stewardship and leadership by Indigenous peoples to achieve climate resilience.

Impacts of fire and prospects for recovery in a tropical peat forest ecosystem.

Uncontrolled fires place considerable burdens on forest ecosystems, compromising our ability to meet conservation and restoration goals. A poor understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystems and their biodiversity exacerbates this challenge, particularly in tropical regions where few studies have applied consistent analytical techniques to examine a broad range of ecological impacts over multiyear time frames. We compiled 16 y of data on ecosystem properties (17 variables) and biodiversity (21 variables) from a tropical peatland in Indonesia to assess fire impacts and infer the potential for recovery. Burned forest experienced altered structural and microclimatic conditions, resulting in a proliferation of nonforest vegetation and erosion of forest ecosystem properties and biodiversity. Compared to unburned forest, habitat structure, tree density, and canopy cover deteriorated by 58 to 98%, while declines in species diversity and abundance were most pronounced for trees, damselflies, and butterflies, particularly for forest specialist species. Tracking ecosystem property and biodiversity datasets over time revealed most to be sensitive to recurrent high-intensity fires within the wider landscape. These megafires immediately compromised water quality and tree reproductive phenology, crashing commercially valuable fish populations within 3 mo and driving a gradual decline in threatened vertebrates over 9 mo. Burned forest remained structurally compromised long after a burn event, but vegetation showed some signs of recovery over a 12-y period. Our findings demonstrate that, if left uncontrolled, fire may be a pervasive threat to the ecological functioning of tropical forests, underscoring the importance of fire prevention and long-term restoration efforts, as exemplified in Indonesia.

A synthetic porphyrin as an effective dual antidote against carbon monoxide and cyanide poisoning.

Simultaneous poisoning by carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen cyanide is the major cause of mortality in fire gas accidents. Here, we report on the invention of an injectable antidote against CO and cyanide (CN-) mixed poisoning. The solution contains four compounds: iron(III)porphyrin (FeIIITPPS, F), two methyl-ß-cyclodextrin (CD) dimers linked by pyridine (Py3CD, P) and imidazole (Im3CD, I), and a reducing agent (Na2S2O4, S). When these compounds are dissolved in saline, the solution contains two synthetic heme models including a complex of F with P (hemoCD-P) and another one of F with I (hemoCD-I), both in their iron(II) state. hemoCD-P is stable in its iron(II) state and captures CO more strongly than native hemoproteins, while hemoCD-I is readily autoxidized to its iron(III) state to scavenge CN- once injected into blood circulation. The mixed solution (hemoCD-Twins) exhibited remarkable protective effects against acute CO and CN- mixed poisoning in mice (~85% survival vs. 0% controls). In a model using rats, exposure to CO and CN- resulted in a significant decrease in heart rate and blood pressure, which were restored by hemoCD-Twins in association with decreased CO and CN- levels in blood. Pharmacokinetic data revealed a fast urinary excretion of hemoCD-Twins with an elimination half-life of 47 min. Finally, to simulate a fire accident and translate our findings to a real-life scenario, we confirmed that combustion gas from acrylic cloth caused severe toxicity to mice and that injection of hemoCD-Twins significantly improved the survival rate, leading to a rapid recovery from the physical incapacitation.

Habitat fragmentation decouples fire-stimulated flowering from plant reproductive fitness.

Many plant species in historically fire-dependent ecosystems exhibit fire-stimulated flowering. While greater reproductive effort after fire is expected to result in increased reproductive outcomes, seed production often depends on pollination, the spatial distribution of prospective mates, and the timing of their reproductive activity. Fire-stimulated flowering may thus have limited fitness benefits in small, isolated populations where mating opportunities are restricted and pollination rates are low. We conducted a 6-y study of 6,357 Echinacea angustifolia (Asteraceae) individuals across 35 remnant prairies in Minnesota (USA) to experimentally evaluate how fire effects on multiple components of reproduction vary with population size in a common species. Fire increased annual reproductive effort across populations, doubling the proportion of plants in flower and increasing the number of flower heads 65% per plant. In contrast, fire's influence on reproductive outcomes differed between large and small populations, reflecting the density-dependent effects of fire on spatiotemporal mating potential and pollination. In populations with fewer than 20 individuals, fire did not consistently increase pollination or annual seed production. Above this threshold, fire increased mating potential, leading to a 24% increase in seed set and a 71% increase in annual seed production. Our findings suggest that density-dependent effects of fire on pollination largely determine plant reproductive outcomes and could influence population dynamics across fire-dependent systems. Failure to account for the density-dependent effects of fire on seed production may lead us to overestimate the beneficial effects of fire on plant demography and the capacity of fire to maintain plant diversity, especially in fragmented habitats.

The 2020 to 2021 California megafires and their impacts on wildlife habitat.

Fire activity during 2020 to 2021 in California, USA, was unprecedented in the modern record. More than 19,000 km2 of forest vegetation burned (10× more than the historical average), potentially affecting the habitat of 508 vertebrate species. Of the >9,000 km2 that burned at high severity, 89% occurred in large patches that exceeded historical estimates of maximum high-severity patch size. In this 2-y period, 100 vertebrate species experienced fire across >10% of their geographic range, 16 of which were species of conservation concern. These 100 species experienced high-severity fire across 5 to 14% of their ranges, underscoring potentially important changes to habitat structure. Species in this region are not adapted to high-severity megafires. Management actions, such as prescribed fires and mechanical thinning, can curb severe fire behavior and reduce the potential negative impacts of uncharacteristic fires on wildlife.

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States.

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Quantifying the environmental limits to fire spread in grassy ecosystems.

Modeling fire spread as an infection process is intuitive: An ignition lights a patch of fuel, which infects its neighbor, and so on. Infection models produce nonlinear thresholds, whereby fire spreads only when fuel connectivity and infection probability are sufficiently high. These thresholds are fundamental both to managing fire and to theoretical models of fire spread, whereas applied fire models more often apply quasi-empirical approaches. Here, we resolve this tension by quantifying thresholds in fire spread locally, using field data from individual fires (n = 1,131) in grassy ecosystems across a precipitation gradient (496 to 1,442 mm mean annual precipitation) and evaluating how these scaled regionally (across 533 sites) and across time (1989 to 2012 and 2016 to 2018) using data from Kruger National Park in South Africa. An infection model captured observed patterns in individual fire spread better than competing models. The proportion of the landscape that burned was well described by measurements of grass biomass, fuel moisture, and vapor pressure deficit. Regionally, averaging across variability resulted in quasi-linear patterns. Altogether, results suggest that models aiming to capture fire responses to global change should incorporate nonlinear fire spread thresholds but that linear approximations may sufficiently capture medium-term trends under a stationary climate.

Radiation and hybridization underpin the spread of the fire ant social supergene.

Supergenes are clusters of tightly linked genes that jointly produce complex phenotypes. Although widespread in nature, how such genomic elements are formed and how they spread are in most cases unclear. In the fire ant Solenopsis invicta and closely related species, a "social supergene controls whether a colony maintains one or multiple queens. Here, we show that the three inversions constituting the Social b (Sb) supergene emerged sequentially during the separation of the ancestral lineages of S. invicta and Solenopsis richteri. The two first inversions arose in the ancestral population of both species, while the third one arose in the S. richteri lineage. Once completely assembled in the S. richteri lineage, the supergene first introgressed into S. invicta, and from there into the other species of the socially polymorphic group of South American fire ant species. Surprisingly, the introgression of this large and important genomic element occurred despite recent hybridization being uncommon between several of the species. These results highlight how supergenes can readily move across species boundaries, possibly because of fitness benefits they provide and/or expression of selfish properties favoring their transmission.

The velocity of postglacial migration of fire-adapted boreal tree species in eastern North America.

The Earth's climate has been warming rapidly since the beginning of the industrial era, forcing terrestrial organisms to adapt. Migration constitutes one of the most effective processes for surviving and thriving, although the speed at which tree species migrate as a function of climate change is unknown. One way to predict latitudinal movement of trees under the climate of the twenty-first century is to examine past migration since the Last Glacial Maximum. In this study, radiocarbon-dated macrofossils were used to calculate the velocity of past migration of jack pine (Pinus banksiana) and black spruce (Picea mariana), two important fire-adapted conifers of the North American boreal forest. Jack pine migrated at a mean rate of 19 km per century (km-cent) from unglaciated sites in the central and southeastern United States to the northern limit of the species in subarctic Canada. However, the velocity increased between unglaciated and early deglaciated sites in southern Quebec and slowed from early to mid-Holocene in central and eastern Quebec. Migration was at its lowest speed in late-Holocene times, when it stopped about 3,000 y ago. Compared with jack pine, black spruce migrated at a faster mean rate of 25 km-cent from the ice border at the last interstadial (Bølling/Allerød) to the species tree limit. The modern range of both species was nearly occupied about 6,000 y ago. The factors modulating the changing velocity of jack pine migration were closely associated with the warm-dry climate of the late Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the more humid climate of the mid- and late-Holocene.

Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake.

Fire is an important climate-driven disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, also modulated by human ignitions or fire suppression. Changes in fire emissions can feed back on the global carbon cycle, but whether the trajectories of changing fire activity will exacerbate or attenuate climate change is poorly understood. Here, we quantify fire dynamics under historical and future climate and human demography using a coupled global climate­fire­carbon cycle model that emulates 34 individual Earth system models (ESMs). Results are compared with counterfactual worlds, one with a constant preindustrial fire regime and another without fire. Although uncertainty in projected fire effects is large and depends on ESM, socioeconomic trajectory, and emissions scenario, we find that changes in human demography tend to suppress global fire activity, keeping more carbon within terrestrial ecosystems and attenuating warming. Globally, changes in fire have acted to warm climate throughout most of the 20th century. However, recent and predicted future reductions in fire activity may reverse this, enhancing land carbon uptake and corresponding to offsetting ∼5 to 10 y of global CO2 emissions at today's levels. This potentially reduces warming by up to 0.11 °C by 2100. We show that climate­carbon cycle feedbacks, as caused by changing fire regimes, are most effective at slowing global warming under lower emission scenarios. Our study highlights that ignitions and active and passive fire suppression can be as important in driving future fire regimes as changes in climate, although with some risk of more extreme fires regionally and with implications for other ecosystem functions in fire-dependent ecosystems.

Disentangling the last 1,000 years of human-environment interactions along the eastern side of the southern Andes (34-52°S lat.).

Researchers have long debated the degree to which Native American land use altered landscapes in the Americas prior to European colonization. Human-environment interactions in southern South America are inferred from new pollen and charcoal data from Laguna El Sosneado and their comparison with high-resolution paleoenvironmental records and archaeological/ethnohistorical information at other sites along the eastern Andes of southern Argentina and Chile (34-52°S). The records indicate that humans, by altering ignition frequency and the availability of fuels, variously muted or amplified the effects of climate on fire regimes. For example, fire activity at the northern and southern sites was low at times when the climate and vegetation were suitable for burning but lacked an ignition source. Conversely, abundant fires set by humans and infrequent lightning ignitions occurred during periods when warm, dry climate conditions coincided with ample vegetation (i.e., fuel) at midlatitude sites. Prior to European arrival, changes in Native American demography and land use influenced vegetation and fire regimes locally, but human influences were not widely evident until the 16th century, with the introduction of nonnative species (e.g., horses), and then in the late 19th century, as Euro-Americans targeted specific resources to support local and national economies. The complex interactions between past climate variability, human activities, and ecosystem dynamics at the local scale are overlooked by approaches that infer levels of land use simply from population size or that rely on regionally composited data to detect drivers of past environmental change.

Landscape fire smoke airway exposure impairs respiratory and cardiac function and worsens experimental asthma.

BACKGROUND: Millions of people are exposed to landscape fire smoke (LFS) globally, and inhalation of LFS particulate matter (PM) is associated with poor respiratory and cardiovascular outcomes. However, how LFS affects respiratory and cardiovascular function is less well understood. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to characterize the pathophysiologic effects of representative LFS airway exposure on respiratory and cardiac function and on asthma outcomes. METHODS: LFS was generated using a customized combustion chamber. In 8-week-old female BALB/c mice, low (25 µg/m3, 24-hour equivalent) or moderate (100 µg/m3, 24-hour equivalent) concentrations of LFS PM (10 µm and below [PM10]) were administered daily for 3 (short-term) and 14 (long-term) days in the presence and absence of experimental asthma. Lung inflammation, gene expression, structural changes, and lung function were assessed. In 8-week-old male C57BL/6 mice, low concentrations of LFS PM10 were administered for 3 days. Cardiac function and gene expression were assessed. RESULTS: Short- and long-term LFS PM10 airway exposure increased airway hyperresponsiveness and induced steroid insensitivity in experimental asthma, independent of significant changes in airway inflammation. Long-term LFS PM10 airway exposure also decreased gas diffusion. Short-term LFS PM10 airway exposure decreased cardiac function and expression of gene changes relating to oxidative stress and cardiovascular pathologies. CONCLUSIONS: We characterized significant detrimental effects of physiologically relevant concentrations and durations of LFS PM10 airway exposure on lung and heart function. Our study provides a platform for assessment of mechanisms that underpin LFS PM10 airway exposure on respiratory and cardiovascular disease outcomes.

Rational Design of Amorphous Carbon-Coated Laminar-Structured Wood for Integrating Repeatable Early Fire Detection and High-Temperature Affordable Flexible Pressure Sensing in One System.

High-temperature affordable flexible polymer-based pressure sensors integrated with repeatable early fire warning service are strongly desired for harsh environmental applications, yet their creation remains challenging. This work proposed an approach for preparing such advanced integrated sensors based on silver nanoparticles and an ammonium polyphosphate (APP)-modified laminar-structured bulk wood sponge (APP/Ag@WS). Such integrated sensors demonstrated excellent fire warning performance, including a short response time (minimum of 0.44 s), a long-lasting alarm time (>750 s), and reliable repeatability. Moreover, it achieved high-temperature affordable flexible pressure sensing that exhibited an almost unimpaired working range of 0-7.5 kPa and a higher sensitivity (in the low-pressure range, maximum to 226.03 kPa-1) after fire. The high stability was attributed to reliable structural elasticity, and the wood-derived amorphous carbon is capable of repeatable fire warnings. Finally, a Ag@APP/WS-based wireless fire alarm system that realized reliable house fire accident detection was demonstrated, showing great promise for smart firefighting application.

Field study of the fire-blight-resistant cisgenic apple line C44.4.146.

Cisgenesis, the genetic modification of a plant with genes from a sexually compatible plant, was used to confer fire blight resistance to the cultivar 'Gala Galaxy' by amendment of the resistance gene FB_MR5, resulting in the line C44.4.146. To verify whether cisgenesis changed other tree-, flower- or fruit-related traits, a 5-year field trial was conducted with trees of C44.4.146 and multiple control genotypes, including members of the 'Gala' sports group. None of the 44 investigated tree-, flower- or fruit-related traits significantly differed between C44.4.146 and at least one of the control genotypes in all observation years. However, fruits of C44.4.146 and its wild-type 'Gala Galaxy' from tissue culture were paler in color than fruits of 'Gala Galaxy' that had not undergone tissue culture. There was no significant and consistently detected difference in the fruit flesh and peel metabolome of C44.4.146 compared with the control genotypes. Finally, the disease resistance of C44.4.146 was confirmed also when the fire blight pathogen was inoculated through the flowers. We conclude that the use of cisgenesis to confer fire blight resistance to 'Gala Galaxy' in C44.4.146 did not have unintended effects, and that the in vitro establishment of 'Gala Galaxy' had a greater effect on C44.4.146 properties than its generation applying cisgenesis.

Grazing herbivores reduce herbaceous biomass and fire activity across African savannas.

Fire and herbivory interact to alter ecosystems and carbon cycling. In savannas, herbivores can reduce fire activity by removing grass biomass, but the size of these effects and what regulates them remain uncertain. To examine grazing effects on fuels and fire regimes across African savannas, we combined data from herbivore exclosure experiments with remotely sensed data on fire activity and herbivore density. We show that, broadly across African savannas, grazing herbivores substantially reduce both herbaceous biomass and fire activity. The size of these effects was strongly associated with grazing herbivore densities, and surprisingly, was mostly consistent across different environments. A one-zebra increase in herbivore biomass density (~100 kg/km2 of metabolic biomass) resulted in a ~53 kg/ha reduction in standing herbaceous biomass and a ~0.43 percentage point reduction in burned area. Our results indicate that fire models can be improved by incorporating grazing effects on grass biomass.

Arrive and wait: Inactive bacterial taxa contribute to perceived soil microbiome resilience after a multidecadal press disturbance.

Long-term (press) disturbances like the climate crisis and other anthropogenic pressures are fundamentally altering ecosystems and their functions. Many critical ecosystem functions, such as biogeochemical cycling, are facilitated by microbial communities. Understanding the functional consequences of microbiome responses to press disturbances requires ongoing observations of the active populations that contribute to functions. This study leverages a 7-year time series of a 60-year-old coal seam fire (Centralia, Pennsylvania, USA) to examine the resilience of soil bacterial microbiomes to a press disturbance. Using 16S rRNA and 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, we assessed the interannual dynamics of the active subset and the 'whole' bacterial community. Contrary to our hypothesis, the whole communities demonstrated greater resilience than active subsets, suggesting that inactive members contributed to overall structural resilience. Thus, in addition to selection mechanisms of active populations, perceived microbiome resilience is also supported by mechanisms of dispersal, persistence, and revival from the local dormant pool.

Active many-particle systems and the emergent behavior of dense ant collectives.

This article discusses recent work with fire ants,Solenopisis invicta, to illustrate the use of the framework of active matter as a base to rationalize their complex collective behavior. We review much of the work that physicists have done on the group dynamics of these ants, and compare their behavior to two minimal models of active matter, and to the behavior of the synthetic systems that have served to test and drive these models.

Strong yet Tough Catalyst-Free Transesterification Vitrimer with Excellent Fire-Retardancy, Durability, and Closed-Loop Recyclability.

Despite great advances in vitrimer, it remains highly challenging to achieve a property portfolio of excellent mechanical properties, desired durability, and high fire safety. Thus, a catalyst-free, closed-loop recyclable transesterification vitrimer (TPN1.50) with superior mechanical properties, durability, and fire retardancy is developed by introducing a rationally designed tertiary amine/phosphorus-containing reactive oligomer (TPN) into epoxy resin (EP). Because of strong covalent interactions between TPN and EP and its linear oligomer structure, as-prepared TPN1.50 achieves a tensile strength of 86.2 MPa and a toughness of 6.8 MJ m-3, superior to previous vitrimer counterparts. TPN1.50 containing 1.50 wt% phosphorus shows desirable fire retardancy, including a limiting oxygen index of 35.2% and a vertical burning (UL-94) V-0 classification. TPN1.50 features great durability and can maintain its structure integrity in 1 M HCl or NaOH solution for 100 days. This is because the tertiary amines are anchored within the cross-linked network and blocked by rigid P-containing groups, thus effectively suppressing the transesterification. Owing to its good chemical recovery, TPN1.50 can be used as a promising resin for creating recyclable carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composites. This work offers a promising integrated method for creating robust durable fire-safe vitrimers which facilitate the sustainable development of high-performance polymer composites.

Melamine Polymerization Promotes Compact Phosphorus/Carbon Composite for High-Performance and Safe Lithium Storage.

Phosphorus is regarded as a promising material for high-performance lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to its high theoretical capacity, appropriate lithiation potential, and low lithium-ion diffusion barrier. Phosphorus/carbon composites (PC) are engineered to serve as high-capacity high-rate anodes; the interaction between phosphorus and carbon, long-term capacity retention, and safety problems are important issues that must be well addressed simultaneously. Herein, an in situ polymerization approach to fabricate a poly-melamine-hybridized (pMA) phosphorus/carbon composite (pMA-PC) is employed. The pMA hybridization enhances the density and electrical conductivity of the PC, improves the structural integrity, and facilitates stable electron transfer within the pMA-PC composite. Moreover, the pMA-PC composite exhibits efficient adsorption of lithium polysulfides, enabling stable transport of Li+ ions. Therefore, the pMA-PC anode demonstrates a high specific charging capacity of 1,381 mAh g-1 at 10 A g-1, and a great capacity retention of 86.7% at 1 A g-1 over 500 cycles. The synergistic effect of phosphorus and nitrogen further confers excellent flame retardant properties to the pMA-PC anode, including self-extinguishing in 2.5 s, and a much lower combustion temperature than PC. The enhanced capacity and safety performance of pMA-PC show potential in future high-capacity and high-rate LIBs.