[Application of the cigarette purchase tasks in achieving China' s tobacco control goals].

OBJECTIVE: To assess cigarette demand among Chinese smokers through a cigarette purchase task (CPT) and to evaluate cigarette prices under different hypothetical scenarios in order to meet the goals of smoking prevalence reduction in China. METHODS: In the study, 447 participants completed a hypothetical CPT at baseline assessments of a trial, thus, cigarette demand curves were individually fitted for each participant using an exponentiated version of the exponential demand model. Typically, five demand indices were derived, intensity (consumption when free), breakpoint (first price at which consumption is suppressed to 0), maximum output (Omax), maximum price (Pmax, price at which Omax occurred), and elasticity (the ratio of the change in quantity demanded to the change in price). A one-way analysis of variance was used to explore the correlations between the cigarette purchase task indices and socio-demographic and smoking characteristics. The one-way decay model was employed to simulate the smoking cessation rates and determine optimal cigarette prices in a series of scenarios for achieving 20% smoking prevalence. RESULTS: The price elasticity drawn from CPT was 0.54, indicating that a 10% price increase could reduce smoking by 5.4% in the participated smokers. Smokers with higher income were less sensitive to cigarette prices (elasticity=-2.31, P=0.028). Cigarette purchase task indices varied significantly among the smokers with different prices of commonly used cigarettes, tobacco dependence, and smoking volume. The smokers who consumed cigarettes of higher prices reported higher breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, but lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who were moderately or highly nicotine dependent reported higher intensity, breakpoint, Omax and Pmax, and they had lower intensity (P=0.001). The smokers who had a higher volume of cigarettes reported higher intensity and Omax, and lower intensity (P < 0.001). To achieve the goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20% in mainland China, we estimated the desired increase on smoking cessation rate and prices accordingly in a series of scenarios, considering the gender variance and reduced smoking initiation. In scenario (a), to achieve a smoking prevalence goal of 20%, it would be necessary for 24.81% of the current smokers to quit smoking when there were no new smokers. Our fitting model yielded a corresponding value of 59.64 yuan (95%CI 53.13-67.24). Given the assumption in scenario (b) that only males quitted smoking, the desired cessation rates would be 25.82%, with a higher corresponding price of 62.15 yuan (95%CI 55.40-70.06) to induce desired cessation rates. In the proposed scenario (c) where 40 percent of the reduction in smoking prevalence came from reduced smoking initiation, and females and males equally quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices, the price of a pack of cigarettes would be at least 37.36 yuan (95%CI 32.32-42.69) (equals to $ 5.20) per pack to achieve the cessation rate of 14.89 percent. In scenario (d) where only males quitted smoking due to increased cigarette prices considering the reduced smoking initiation, the respective smoking cessation rates should be 15.49% with the desired prices of 38.60 yuan (95%CI 33.53-44.02). After adjusting for education levels and income levels in scenario (c), the price of cigarettes would be at least 37.37 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.20) (95%CI 30.73-44.94) and 37.84 yuan/pack (equals to $ 5.26) (95%CI 31.94-44.53), respectively. CONCLUSION: Cigarette purchase task indices are significantly associated with income levels and prices of commonly used cigarettes, levels of tobacco dependence, and smoking volume, which is inspiring in studying price factors that influence smoking behavior. It is suggested that higher cigarette prices, surpassing the current actual market level, is imperative in mainland China. Stronger policy stra-tegies should be taken to increase tobacco taxes and retail cigarette prices to achieve the Healthy China 2030 goal of reducing smoking prevalence to 20%.

The health, economic and social burden of smoking in Argentina, and the impact of increasing tobacco taxes in a context of illicit trade.

Tobacco tax increases, the most cost-effective measure in reducing consumption, remain underutilized in low and middle-income countries. This study estimates the health and economic burden of smoking in Argentina and forecasts the benefits of tobacco tax hikes, accounting for the potential effects of illicit trade. Using a probabilistic Markov microsimulation model, this study quantifies smoking-related deaths, health events, and societal costs. The model also estimates the health and economic benefits of different increases in the price of cigarettes through taxes. Annually, smoking causes 45,000 deaths and 221,000 health events in Argentina, costing USD 2782 million in direct medical expenses, USD 1470 million in labor productivity loss costs, and USD 1069 million in informal care costs-totaling 1.2% of the national gross domestic product. Even in a scenario that considers illicit trade of tobacco products, a 50% cigarette price increase through taxes could yield USD 8292 million in total economic benefits accumulated over a decade. Consequently, raising tobacco taxes could significantly reduce the health and economic burdens of smoking in Argentina while increasing fiscal revenue.

Tobacco industry pricing undermines tobacco tax policy: A tale from Bangladesh.

The effectiveness of tax increase in reducing tobacco use depends on the extent to which the industry passes on the tax to consumers. Evidence suggests that tobacco industry may absorb or raise the price more than the tax increase depending on the price segment of tobacco products. In this paper, we examined the industry's pricing strategy by price segment of the cigarette market in Bangladesh by observing the deviation between the market retail prices (MRP) of cigarettes faced by consumers and government recommended retail prices (RRP) used as tax base in a four-tiered ad valorem tax structure. The RRPs by brands were collected from government sources. The MRPs by brands were collected by the International Tobacco Control Bangladesh Wave 3 Survey 2011-12 and Wave 4 Survey 2014-15. Applying linear regression to the deviation of MRP from RRP by price tiers, we found MRPs were higher than RRPs for higher-price brands allowing extra profit margin from the high end while lowering the relative price of and expanding demand for cheaper brands. Bangladesh cigarette industry adopted a differential pricing strategy that undermined the intended effect of tax policy change in reducing cigarette consumption and improving public health. This pricing strategy was supported by the tiered excise tax structure which should be replaced with a uniform specific excise system. In the face of growing cigarette affordability, it is crucial that the specific tax be increased routinely by an amount that induces cigarette price increases large enough to make cigarettes less affordable over time.

Establishing a tobacco control fund in Vietnam: some learnings for other countries.

In response to the need for stable and adequate funding for tobacco control and the shortage of personnel working in the field, the Vietnam Tobacco Control Fund (VNTCF) was established through the Law on Prevention and Control of Tobacco Harms in 2012. In September 2014, VNTCF awarded its first set of grants. Built on the local evidence-based context and needs as well as lessons learnt from other countries, VNTCF adapted best practices with adjustments that fit the country's political, economic and social environment. The key strengths of the VNTCF are the evidence-based model; multisectoral management; clearly dedicated funding mechanism, defined vision, objectives and function; outcomes based mechanism and a multisectoral approach to releasing grants. Although several challenges remain such as insufficient human resources to undertake the workload, complex and cumbersome administrative processes, and limited capacity for tobacco control in the country, VNTCF has achieved several successes. The establishment of VNTCF in Vietnam is a critical milestone within the country's fight against the tobacco epidemic. It showed not only the commitment of the local authorities to the fight but also their determination to ensure sustainable funding for tobacco control activities in Vietnam. Analysing VNTCF's critical success elements, key strengths and challenges is helpful for other countries which want to establish or modify a tobacco control fund.

Ten Years of the Tobacco Control Act in New York City.

This article describes the impact of the 2009 Family Smoking and Prevention Tobacco Control Act (TCA) on local tobacco control through the lens of New York City's experience during the first 10 years after the TCA was enacted, highlighting one meaningful change and an opportunity that has failed to materialize. Much of the analysis regarding the TCA highlights the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) new powers and the TCA's impact on a national level. However, the TCA also opened up opportunities for local governments to pursue sound tobacco control policies that previously seemed fraught with high legal risk. This article focuses on two aspects of the TCA. First, the TCA weakened one of the tobacco industry's most reliable litigation weapons-preemption. Second, the TCA authorized the FDA to combat the illicit trade of tobacco products. Despite clear language in the TCA, the FDA has not signaled an inclination to take action regarding illicit trade in the context of tobacco tax evasion.

A 14-year longitudinal study of the impact of clean indoor air legislation on state smoking prevalence, USA, 1997-2010.

While clean indoor air legislation at the state level is an evidence-based recommendation, only limited evidence exists regarding the impact of clean indoor air policies on state smoking prevalence. Using state smoking prevalence data from 1997 to 2010, a repeated measures observational analysis assessed the association between clean indoor air policies (i.e., workplace, restaurant, and bar) and state smoking prevalence while controlling for state cigarette taxes and year. The impacts from the number of previous years with any clean indoor air policy, the number of policies in effect during the current year, and the number of policies in effect the previous year were analyzed. Findings indicate a smoking prevalence predicted decrease of 0.13 percentage points (p=0.03) for each additional year one or more clean indoor air policies were in effect, a predicted decrease of 0.12 percentage points (p=0.09) for each policy in effect in the current year, and a predicted decrease of 0.22 percentage points (p=0.01) for each policy in effect in the previous year on the subsequent year. Clean indoor air policies show measurable associations with reductions in smoking prevalence within a year of implementation above and beyond taxes and time trends. Further efforts are needed to diffuse clean indoor air policies across states and provinces that have not yet adopted such policies.

Changes in cigarette prices, affordability, and brand-tier consumption after a tobacco tax increase in Thailand: Evidence from the Global Adult Tobacco Surveys, 2009 and 2011.

Despite the 2009 implementation of a tobacco tax increase in Thailand, smoking rates remained unchanged between 2009 and 2011. Prior evidence has linked cigarette tax increases to compensatory behaviours aimed at lowering the cost of smoking, such as switching to lower-priced cigarette brands. Using data from 2009 and 2011 Global Adult Tobacco Surveys in Thailand, we estimated unadjusted changes in cigarette prices paid, cigarette affordability, and consumption of cigarettes in three price categories classified as upper-, middle-, and lower-priced brand tiers (or price tertiles). We used ordered logit regression to analyse the correlates of price-tier choice and to estimate the change in price-tier consumption adjusted for demographic and region characteristics. Between 2009 and 2011, real cigarette prices increased, but the affordability of cigarettes remained unchanged overall. There was a significant reduction in the consumption of cigarette brands in the top price-tier overall, accompanied by increases in the consumption of brands in the bottom and middle price-tiers, depending on the region. Adjusted estimates from the logit models indicate that, on average, the proportion of smokers selecting brands from upper- and middle price-tiers decreased while consumption of lower price-tier brands increased during the study period. The estimated shifts in consumption from more expensive to less expensive cigarette brands and the overall lack of change in cigarette affordability in Thailand between 2009 and 2011 are both factors that may have contributed to the observed lack of change in smoking rates after the 2009 tax increase.

The effect of tobacco tax increase on price-minimizing tobacco purchasing behaviours: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Tobacco product excise taxes are a cost-effective method for reducing tobacco consumption, but industry pricing and marketing strategies encourage consumers to engage in price-minimizing behaviours (PMBs). We investigated the relationship between tobacco tax increases and PMBs, measuring whether PMBs intensify following tax increases, whether low-income consumers with higher nicotine dependence are more likely to engage in PMBs and whether PMBs are negatively related to smoking cessation. METHOD: This was a systematic review with meta-analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies from seven databases up to March 2023, using studies that reported any product- and purchasing-related smoking behaviours post-tobacco tax increase in a general representative population. Sixty-eight studies were quality-assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. All studies were narratively synthesized, with five studies involving 13 068-26 575 participants providing data for pooled analyses on PMBs [purchasing lower-priced brands, roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco and cartons] pre- and post-tax increases using a random effects meta-analytical model. RESULTS: Fifty-seven studies reported on legal PMBs, and 17 studies reported illicit cigarette purchasing. Meta-analysis showed that consecutive tax increases were positively associated with purchasing RYO [odds ratio (OR) = 1.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-2.46], especially in higher tobacco taxing environments, with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 96%). Lower income and higher nicotine dependence were associated with purchasing lower-priced brands and RYO, whereas higher income and nicotine dependence were associated with purchasing cartons, large-sized packs and cross-border sales. Less evidence associated illicit tobacco purchases with tax increases or PMBs with smoking cessation. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco purchasers' PMBs vary widely by state, country and time-period within countries. Both legal and illegal PMBs, potentially influenced by industry pricing tactics, may exacerbate health inequalities and dilute the public health benefits of tobacco tax increases.

Perceptions of Tobacco Price Policy among Students from Sapienza University of Rome: Can This Policy Mitigate Smoking Addiction and Its Health Impacts?

Tobacco use is one of the main risk factors for non-communicable diseases. Avoiding youth initiation and treating addiction are fundamental public health issues to ensure better health. Among tobacco control policies, increasing tobacco price is the single most effective intervention. It reduces tobacco consumption, especially among youths, while representing a government financing source. This study aimed to assess the agreement with the proposal of a one-euro increase in tobacco price earmarked to health issues among students at Sapienza University. Two convenience samples were surveyed, five years apart, on World No Tobacco Days. Smoking habits, agreement with the proposal and reasons for it were collected. Results from the 208 questionnaires (107 in 2014, 101 in 2019) showed 46.6% of agreement with the proposal (53.3% in 2014, 39.2% in 2019, p = 0.044). Main predictive factor for agreement was being a non-smoker (OR = 6.33 p < 0.001), main reason (64.8%) was it could trigger smokers to quit or reduce consumption. Several factors might have influenced this finding, including the introduction of novel tobacco products and their increased advertisement on social media. In 2024, European Union is planning to update the Tobacco Taxation Directive which could greatly contribute to the reduction of non-communicable diseases and premature deaths.

National prevalence of smoking among adolescents at tobacco tax increase and COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, 2005-2022.

Prior research has predominantly focused on the overall effects of the tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking behavior. However, there is a need to examine both the immediate and sustained associations of these two factors on subgroups of adolescents, employing an interrupted time-series model. We aimed to investigate the immediate and sustained association of tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent smoking prevalence. This study utilized data from the Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-Based Survey to analyze the prevalence of current smoking among all participants (CSP) and the prevalence of daily smoking among current smokers (DSP) of Korean adolescents (n = 1,159,995; mean, age 14.99; male 51.5%) over 18 years from 2005 to 2022. The study examined 18-year trends in CSP and DSP among Korean adolescents, emphasizing the influences of the 2015 tobacco tax increase and the COVID-19 pandemic, using ß coefficients and their differences (ßdiff) from an interrupted time-series ARIMA model. While CSP exhibited a decreasing trend, DSP exhibited an increasing trend. Tobacco tax increase was associated with both the short and long terms in smoking prevalence, however, the short-term association on prevalence (CSP, - 3.076 [95% CI, - 3.707 to - 2.445]; DSP, - 4.112 [95% CI, - 6.488 to - 1.735]) was stronger. The pandemic was associated with an immediate increase in DSP (9.345 [95% CI, 5.285-13.406]). These effects were strongest among adolescents from low economic status and those exposed to familial secondhand smoking. Supportive programs for adolescents in low-income families will help overcome the effects associated with the pandemic. As a tobacco tax increase was associated with a reduction in smoking prevalence, this could be one method to overcome the effects of the pandemic.

Critical analysis of tobacco taxation policies in Pakistan after two decades of FCTC: Policy gaps and lessons for low- and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco taxation remains a poorly used intervention to control tobacco use in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) including Pakistan even after two decades of FCTC adoption. This study identifies gaps and implementation challenges in the current Tobacco Taxation and Pricing Policies (TTPP) in Pakistan, and highlights key policy implications and lessons for LMICs to strengthen tobacco control measures. METHODS: We used qualitative document analysis to examine the policy documents to assess the TTPP against the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) guidelines for the implementation of Article 6 of the FCTC. In addition, we used secondary data on tobacco tax and prices to assess the impact of TTPP on tobacco affordability in the country. RESULTS: Although Pakistan taxes raw tobacco, cigarettes and other tobacco products (cigarillos, cigars, cheroots), the existing TTPP falls below the WHO FCTC requirements of: uniform tax level, simple tax structure and 70% share of excise tax in the price of a product's pack; among others. There are also multiple issues in tobacco tax administration such as lack of monitoring. This is leading to the availability of highly affordable tobacco products in the country. CONCLUSIONS: Pakistan does not have a clear strategy on using tobacco taxation and prices as a public health tool in the country. Existing TTPP face dual issues of flawed structure and poor administration translating into highly affordable tobacco products and low revenues in the country. There is a need to introduce multisectoral tobacco control policies in countries like Pakistan in the context of the tobacco sector political economy.

Tobacco Tax Increases: A Discourse Analysis of the French Print and Web News Media from 2000 to 2020.

Lobbying led by the tobacco industry and tobacconists is a barrier to reducing smoking prevalence in France. Here, we analyze the discourse of the tobacco industry and other key actors (public health agencies, politicians, etc.) in the French general-audience news media from 2000 to 2020 around tobacco tax increases, which is one of the most effective tobacco control measures, especially amongst youth. We queried Europresse (a European news media and specialized press database) using the keywords "increase", "price or taxes", and "tobacco or cigarettes", and found 5409 topic-relevant articles, from which we extracted 8015 arguments for or against the measure. In total,64.3% were against the measure (mostly on grounds of "ufueling the black market"), 32.1% were for the measure (mostly claiming it is "effective at reducing smoking prevalence"), and 1.8% proposed alternative measures. Tobacconists, the primary source of media content on the topic, led a discourse that was strongly opposed to tax increases. Public health agencies, which attracted only half as much media attention, were strongly supportive of the measure. Analysis of discourses relayed in the French general-audience press revealed overwhelming opposition to tobacco tax increases, and this discourse was widely advanced by tobacconists. The results were congruent with international literature that had highlighted a similar set of arguments to those found in the French general press that were broadcasted by the tobacco industry and its allies (tobacconists in France) in an effort to block this evidence-based public health measure.

Framing tobacco control: the case of the Nigerian tobacco tax debates.

Studies have shown that the tobacco industry exerts significant policy-framing efforts to undermine tobacco control (TC) policies. However, most of this evidence is from high-income settings. This study applies framing analysis to the debate surrounding the 2016 tobacco import duty raise in Nigeria and subsequent rise in excise duty on tobacco, alcohol and selected food products in 2018 to understand why policy changes occurred. Print media documents and relevant actor publications published between 2016 and 2018 were analysed interpretively to identify key actors and arguments for and against the tax raise. Key opponents included tobacco companies, trade groups and allies. In contrast, the Ministries of Health and Finance, non-governmental organizations and international bodies like the World Health Organization advocated for the policy. The framing efforts of opponents were largely coordinated with significant alcohol industry involvement, while TC advocates lacked a unified front. Actors on both sides of the debate predominantly focused on economic and 'global ranking' arguments, and advocates also employed health and 'vulnerable groups' framing among others. The tax policy was sustained despite the framing and litigation efforts of opponents, and this is attributed principally to economic factors. The findings also suggest that tobacco is grouped with less harmful products, and advocates need to intensify efforts to diminish this legitimacy in low- and middle-income country settings. Additionally, there may be some benefits to jointly addressing alcohol and TC in this setting. Summarily, it is recommended that public health advocates coordinate their framing efforts to better articulate clear policy positions to the government, gain public support and ensure full Framework Convention on Tobacco Control compliance.

Amplifying Advocacy for Student Health and School Nursing Services.

Annually, the National Association of School Nurses (NASN) sets advocacy goals, including legislative and policy priorities. Activities this past year continued to focus on assistance for school nurses to manage the ongoing pandemic by providing for additional school nurses and supplies. In addition, NASN advocated for legislation to provide grants for school nurses in Title 1 schools, to reduce tobacco use, and to address social determinants of health. This article provides a brief summary of NASN's 2021-2022 national advocacy efforts.

Prevalence of illicit tobacco use and tobacco tax avoidance in pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Smoking during pregnancy is associated with adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Tobacco tax avoidance and tax evasion undermine the effectiveness of tobacco tax policies, resulting in cheaper prices for smokers and increased tobacco usage. AIMS: The purpose of this study was to explore the purchasing habits of pregnant smokers with regard to tobacco expenditure and use of illicit tobacco. METHODS: Prospective cohort study. Face to face interviews were conducted with 90 attendees (age range 18-42 years; mean age 28 years) of a smoking cessation antenatal clinic in a large Irish tertiary level maternity hospital. Information regarding smoking habits, quantity of tobacco smoked, and location of purchase of tobacco was collected in addition to socioeconomic details. Tobacco products were examined to establish whether these were purchased from legitimate sources. RESULTS: 76.6% of women smoked 10 or fewer cigarettes per day. The mean weekly spend on tobacco was €39. Seventeen women (18.8%) smoked roll-your-own tobacco. One woman (1.1%) currently possessed a pack of illicit tobacco, while another 5.5% of participants had purchased illicit tobacco in the past. Four women (4.4%) practiced tobacco tax avoidance by purchasing tobacco abroad or in Duty Free. CONCLUSIONS: Use of illicit tobacco is low and only a minority of women engaged in tobacco tax avoidance. As the average price of tobacco in Ireland increases, weekly expenditure on tobacco products is a significant financial impact on low-income women. Smoking cessation would deliver significant financial gains in addition to health benefits.

Policy priorities for strengthening smokeless tobacco control in Bangladesh: A mixed-methods analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Smokeless tobacco (ST) remains poorly regulated in Bangladesh. This study describes the prevalence and trends of ST use in Bangladesh, presents ST-related disease burden, identifies relevant policy gaps, and highlights key implications for future policy and practice for effective ST control in Bangladesh. METHODS: We analyzed secondary data from the two rounds (2009 and 2017) of The Global Adult Tobacco Survey, estimated ST-related disease burden, and conducted a review to assess differences in combustible tobacco and ST policies. In addition, we gathered views in a workshop with key stakeholders in the country on gaps in existing tobacco control policies for ST control in Bangladesh and identified policy priorities using an online survey. RESULTS: Smokeless tobacco use, constituting more than half of all tobacco use in Bangladesh, declined from 27.2% (25.9 million) in 2009 to 20.6% (22 million) in 2017. However, in 2017, at least 16947 lives and 403460 Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were lost across Bangladesh due to ST use compared to 12511 deaths and 324020 DALYs lost in 2010. Policy priorities identified for ST control have included: introducing specific taxes and increasing the present ad valorem tax level, increasing the health development surcharge, designing and implementing a tax tracking and tracing system, standardizing ST packaging, integrating ST cessation within existing health systems, comprehensive media campaigns, and licensing of ST manufactures. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis shows that compared to combustible tobacco, there remain gaps in implementing and compliance with ST control policies in Bangladesh. Thus, contrary to the decline in ST use and the usual time lag between tobacco exposure and the development of cancers, the ST-related disease burden is still on the rise in Bangladesh. Strengthening ST control at this stage can accelerate this decline and reduce ST related morbidity and mortality.

The battle to increase tobacco taxes: Lessons from Philippines and Ukraine.

INTRODUCTION: While increasing taxes on tobacco is one of the most effective tobacco control measures, its adoption has been slow compared to other tobacco control policies. Given this, there is an urgent need to better understand the political and economic dynamics that lead to its adoption despite immense tobacco industry opposition. The primary aim of this study is to explore the process, actors, and determinants that helped lead to the successful passage of the 2012 Sin Tax Reform Law in the Philippines and the 2017 seven-year plan for tobacco tax increases in Ukraine. METHOD: Under the guidance of the Advocacy Coalition Framework, we used a case study approach gathering data from key informant interviews (n = 37) and documents (n = 56). Subsequently, cross-case analysis was undertaken to identify themes across the two cases. RESULTS: We found that external events in the Philippines and Ukraine triggered policy subsystem instability and tipped the scale in the favor of tobacco tax proponents. In the Philippines, elections brought forth a new leader in 2010 who was keen to achieve universal health care and improve tax collection efficiency. In Ukraine, the European Union Association Agreement came into force in 2017 and included the Tobacco Products Directive requiring Ukraine to synchronize its excise taxes to that of the European Union. Exploiting these key entry points, tobacco tax proponents formed a multi-sectoral coalition and used a multi-pronged approach. In both countries, respected economic groups and experts who could generate timely evidence were present and used local as well as international data to counter opponents who also used an array of strategies to water down the tax policies. CONCLUSIONS: Findings are largely consistent with the Advocacy Coalition Framework and suggest the need for tobacco tax proponents to 1) form a multi-sectoral coalition, 2) include respected economic groups and experts who can generate timely evidence, 3) use both local data and international experiences, and 4) undertake a multi-pronged approach.

Assessing the Effects of a Tobacco Tax Reform on the Industry Price-Setting Strategy.

In July 2020, the Executive Power submitted Bill no. 3887-2020 as the first step towards a wide reform of the Brazilian tax system. It will replace the current PIS/COFINS (charged on turnover of companies) by the CBS (a tax on goods and services), which includes a special regime for cigarettes. The novelty is that the specific cigarette tax will be charged on the highest retail price per cigarette brand across the country. This research simulates three scenarios that differ according to the price-setting strategy of the tobacco industry in reaction to the proposed tax reform. In all simulations, the tax reform would result in considerably higher cigarette prices, lower cigarette consumption, higher tax collection, and an implicit minimum price that is far above the current official price floor. Furthermore, the price dispersion and cross-border shopping across states would be reduced because prices and tax burden per brand would tend to be the same across the country due to the dominant price-setting strategy in the cigarette industry.

Designing an Optimum Fiscal Policy for Tobacco to Maximise the Tax Revenue, Social Savings and the Net Monetary Benefits in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Fiscal policy targeting tobacco control is identified as the most effective strategy for rapid control of tobacco use. An optimum fiscal policy to estimate the percentage taxation that will maximise the government tax revenue, social savings and the net monetary benefit has not been empirically designed before in Sri Lanka. METHODS: A model was developed using Microsoft Excel 2016, utilizing up-to-date published evidence on the cigarette sales, current fiscal policy, social cost of tobacco use, consumer response and the price elasticity of cigarettes. Univariate estimates on the expected revenue from tobacco tax, average annual social savings and the net monetary benefit were predicted for different levels of tobacco taxation. A deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed covering all possibilities. The percentage taxation maximizing the government tax revenue and the net monetary benefit were identified. RESULTS: It was estimated that a further 30% tax increase from the 2019 baseline will generate approximately LKR 3544 million per year of additional tax revenue for the government while saving LKR 28 069 million per annum as social savings. A fiscal elevation of 50% will produce identical annual tax revenue to that of 2018, while securing a social saving of more than LKR 47 600 million per annum. The maximum net monetary benefit is achievable at an overnight tax increase of 90% from the baseline, however with a short-term compromise in tax revenue. CONCLUSION: The well-defined thresholds take tobacco taxation advocacy in Sri Lanka a step forward and will assist the government in taking an informed decision on its fiscal policy for cigarettes.

Tobacco price increase and consumption behaviour among male smokers in Saudi Arabia: a community-based study.

BACKGROUND: Saudi Arabia doubled its tobacco tax in June 2017. AIMS: To examine the association between an increase in tobacco prices and consumption behaviour among current male smokers in Riyadh. METHODS: We conducted a community-based study using a self-administered questionnaire distributed to current male smokers aged 15+ years in Riyadh in 2018. The survey included questions on sociodemographic characteristics, tobacco consumption and self-reported chronic health conditions. RESULTS: A total of 1481 participants were included in the final data analysis. After the tobacco tax was doubled, 25.6% of the participants reduced their cigarette consumption and 1.0% quit smoking. The average daily cigarette consumption after enforcing the tobacco tax [19.77, standard deviation (SD) 10.7], was statistically significantly lower than before taxation (21.19, SD 10.8) (P < 0.0001). The calculated price elasticity of demand was -0.20 (inelastic). Employment status (P = 0.002) and per capita gross domestic product purchasing power parity (P = 0.001) were the only statistically significant factors associated with the change in smoking habits. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing tobacco prices reduced tobacco consumption by 26.6% among Saudi Arabian male smokers.