The refinery of the future.

Fossil fuels-coal, oil and gas-supply most of the world's energy and also form the basis of many products essential for everyday life. Their use is the largest contributor to the carbon dioxide emissions that drive global climate change, prompting joint efforts to find renewable alternatives that might enable a carbon-neutral society by as early as 2050. There are clear paths for renewable electricity to replace fossil-fuel-based energy, but the transport fuels and chemicals produced in oil refineries will still be needed. We can attempt to close the carbon cycle associated with their use by electrifying refinery processes and by changing the raw materials that go into a refinery from fossils fuels to carbon dioxide for making hydrocarbon fuels and to agricultural and municipal waste for making chemicals and polymers. We argue that, with sufficient long-term commitment and support, the science and technology for such a completely fossil-free refinery, delivering the products required after 2050 (less fuels, more chemicals), could be developed. This future refinery will require substantially larger areas and greater mineral resources than is the case at present and critically depends on the capacity to generate large amounts of renewable energy for hydrogen production and carbon dioxide capture.

Climate Impacts of Hydrogen and Methane Emissions Can Considerably Reduce the Climate Benefits across Key Hydrogen Use Cases and Time Scales.

Recent investments in "clean" hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels are driven by anticipated climate benefits. However, most climate benefit calculations do not adequately account for all climate warming emissions and impacts over time. This study reanalyzes a previously published life cycle assessment as an illustrative example to show how the climate impacts of hydrogen deployment can be far greater than expected when including the warming effects of hydrogen emissions, observed methane emission intensities, and near-term time scales; this reduces the perceived climate benefits upon replacement of fossil fuel technologies. For example, for blue (natural gas with carbon capture) hydrogen pathways, the inclusion of upper-end hydrogen and methane emissions can yield an increase in warming in the near term by up to 50%, whereas lower-end emissions decrease warming impacts by at least 70%. For green (renewable-based electrolysis) hydrogen pathways, upper-end hydrogen emissions can reduce climate benefits in the near term by up to 25%. We also consider renewable electricity availability for green hydrogen and show that if it is not additional to what is needed to decarbonize the electric grid, there may be more warming than that seen with fossil fuel alternatives over all time scales. Assessments of hydrogen's climate impacts should include the aforementioned factors if hydrogen is to be an effective decarbonization tool.

Methods for Spatial Extrapolation of Methane Measurements in Constructing Regional Estimates from Sample Populations.

Methane emission estimates for oil and gas facilities are typically based on estimates at a subpopulation of facilities, and these emission estimates are then extrapolated to a larger region or basin. Basin-level emission estimates are then frequently compared with basin-level observations. Methane emissions from oil and gas systems are inherently variable and intermittent, which make it difficult to determine whether a sample population is sufficiently large to be representative of a larger region. This work develops a framework for extrapolation of emission estimates using the case study of an operator in the Green River Basin. This work also identifies a new metric, the capture ratio, which quantifies the extent to which sources are represented in the sample population, based on the skewness of emissions for each source. There is a strong correlation between the capture ratio and extrapolation error, which suggests that understanding source-level emissions distributions can mitigate error when sample populations are selected and extrapolating measurements. The framework and results from this work can inform the selection and extrapolation of site measurements when developing methane emission inventories and establishing uncertainty bounds to assess whether inventory estimates are consistent with independent large spatial-scale observations.

Ground-Based Mobile Measurements to Track Urban Methane Emissions from Natural Gas in 12 Cities across Eight Countries.

To mitigate methane emission from urban natural gas distribution systems, it is crucial to understand local leak rates and occurrence rates. To explore urban methane emissions in cities outside the U.S., where significant emissions were found previously, mobile measurements were performed in 12 cities across eight countries. The surveyed cities range from medium size, like Groningen, NL, to large size, like Toronto, CA, and London, UK. Furthermore, this survey spanned across European regions from Barcelona, ES, to Bucharest, RO. The joint analysis of all data allows us to focus on general emission behavior for cities with different infrastructure and environmental conditions. We find that all cities have a spectrum of small, medium, and large methane sources in their domain. The emission rates found follow a heavy-tailed distribution, and the top 10% of emitters account for 60-80% of total emissions, which implies that strategic repair planning could help reduce emissions quickly. Furthermore, we compare our findings with inventory estimates for urban natural gas-related methane emissions from this sector in Europe. While cities with larger reported emissions were found to generally also have larger observed emissions, we find clear discrepancies between observation-based and inventory-based emission estimates for our 12 cities.

Prioritizing Organic Pollutants for Shale Gas Exploitation: Life Cycle Environmental Risk Assessments in China and the US.

Environmental impacts associated with shale gas exploitation have been historically underestimated due to neglecting to account for the production or the release of end-of-pipe organic pollutants. Here, we assessed the environmental impacts of shale gas production in China and the United States using life cycle assessment. Through data mining, we compiled literature information on organic pollutants in flowback and produced water (FPW), followed by assessments using USEtox to evaluate end-of-pipe risks. Results were incorporated to reveal the life cycle risks associated with shale gas exploitation in both countries. China exhibited higher environmental impacts than the US during the production phase. Substantially different types of organic compounds were observed in the FPW between two countries. Human carcinogenic and ecological toxicity attributed to organics in FPW was 3 orders of magnitude higher than that during the production phase in the US. Conversely, in China, end-of-pipe organics accounted for approximately 52%, 1%, and 47% of the overall human carcinogenic, noncarcinogenic, and ecological impacts, respectively. This may be partially limited by the quantitative data available. While uncertainties exist associated with data availability, our study highlights the significance of integrating impacts from shale gas production to end-of-pipe pollution for comprehensive environmental risk assessments.

Early Detection of Pipeline Natural Gas Leakage from Hyperspectral Imaging by Vegetation Indicators and Deep Neural Networks.

The timely detection of underground natural gas (NG) leaks in pipeline transmission systems presents a promising opportunity for reducing the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. However, existing techniques face notable limitations for prompt detection. This study explores the utility of Vegetation Indicators (VIs) to reflect vegetation health deterioration, thereby representing leak-induced stress. Despite the acknowledged potential of VIs, their sensitivity and separability remain understudied. In this study, we employed ground vegetation as biosensors for detecting methane emissions from underground pipelines. Hyperspectral imaging from vegetation was collected weekly at both plant and leaf scales over two months to facilitate stress detection using VIs and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). Our findings revealed that plant pigment-related VIs, modified chlorophyll absorption reflectance index (MCARI), exhibit commendable sensitivity but limited separability in discerning stressed grasses. A NG-specialized VI, the optimized soil-adjusted vegetation index (OSAVI), demonstrates higher sensitivity and separability in early detection of methane leaks. Notably, the OSAVI proved capable of discriminating vegetation stress 21 days after methane exposure initiation. DNNs identified the methane leaks following a 3-week methane treatment with an accuracy of 98.2%. DNN results indicated an increase in visible (VIS) and a decrease in near-infrared (NIR) in spectra due to methane exposure.

In Situ Sampling of NOx Emissions from United States Natural Gas Flares Reveals Heavy-Tail Emission Characteristic.

Natural gas flaring is a common practice employed in many United States (U.S.) oil and gas regions to dispose of gas associated with oil production. Combustion of predominantly hydrocarbon gas results in the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Here, we present a large field data set of in situ sampling of real world flares, quantifying flaring NOx production in major U.S. oil production regions: the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Permian. We find that a single emission factor does not capture the range of the observed NOx emission factors within these regions. For all three regions, the median emission factors fall within the range of four emission factors used by the Texas Commission for Environmental Quality. In the Bakken and Permian, the distribution of emission factors exhibits a heavy tail such that basin-average emission factors are 2-3 times larger than the value employed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Extrapolation to basin scale emissions using auxiliary satellite assessments of flare volumes indicates that NOx emissions from flares are skewed, with 20%-30% of the flares responsible for 80% of basin-wide flaring NOx emissions. Efforts to reduce flaring volume through alternative gas capture methods would have a larger impact on the NOx oil and gas budget than current inventories indicate.

Temporal Variation and Persistence of Methane Emissions from Shallow Water Oil and Gas Production in the Gulf of Mexico.

Methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain can be intermittent, posing challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts. This study examines shallow water facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico with repeat atmospheric observations to evaluate temporal variation in site-specific methane emissions. We combine new and previous observations to develop a longitudinal study, spanning from days to months to almost five years, evaluating the emissions behavior of sites over time. We also define and determine the chance of subsequent detection (CSD): the likelihood that an emitting site will be observed emitting again. The average emitting central hub in the Gulf has a 74% CSD at any time interval. Eight facilities contribute 50% of total emissions and are over 80% persistent with a 96% CSD above 100 kg/h and 46% persistent with a 42% CSD above 1000 kg/h, indicating that large emissions are persistent at certain sites. Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) footage shows many of these sites exhibiting cold venting. This suggests that for offshore, a low sampling frequency over large spatial coverage can capture typical site emissions behavior and identify targets for mitigation. We further demonstrate the preliminary use of space-based observations to monitor offshore emissions over time.

Unaddressed Uncertainties When Scaling Regional Aircraft Emission Surveys to Basin Emission Estimates.

Wide-area aerial methods provide comprehensive screening of methane emissions from oil and gas (O & G) facilities in production basins. Emission detections ("plumes") from these studies are also frequently scaled to the basin level, but little is known regarding the uncertainties during scaling. This study analyzed an aircraft field study in the Denver-Julesburg basin to quantify how often plumes identified maintenance events, using a geospatial inventory of 12,629 O & G facilities. Study partners (7 midstream and production operators) provided the timing and location of 5910 maintenance events during the 6 week study period. Results indicated three substantial uncertainties with potential bias that were unaddressed in prior studies. First, plumes often detect maintenance events, which are large, short-duration, and poorly estimated by aircraft methods: 9.2 to 46% (38 to 52%) of plumes on production were likely known maintenance events. Second, plumes on midstream facilities were both infrequent and unpredictable, calling into question whether these estimates were representative of midstream emissions. Finally, 4 plumes attributed to O & G (19% of emissions detected by aircraft) were not aligned with any O & G location, indicating that the emissions had drifted downwind of some source. It is unclear how accurately aircraft methods estimate this type of plume; in this study, it had material impact on emission estimates. While aircraft surveys remain a powerful tool for identifying methane emissions on O & G facilities, this study indicates that additional data inputs, e.g., detailed GIS data, a more nuanced analysis of emission persistence and frequency, and improved sampling strategies are required to accurately scale plume estimates to basin emissions.

Formaldehyde Exposure Racial Disparities in Southeast Texas.

Formaldehyde (HCHO) exposures during a full year were calculated for different race/ethnicity groups living in Southeast Texas using a chemical transport model tagged to track nine emission categories. Petroleum and industrial emissions were the largest anthropogenic sources of HCHO exposure in Southeast Texas, accounting for 44% of the total HCHO population exposure. Approximately 50% of the HCHO exposures associated with petroleum and industrial sources were directly emitted (primary), while the other 50% formed in the atmosphere (secondary) from precursor emissions of reactive compounds such as ethylene and propylene. Biogenic emissions also formed secondary HCHO that accounted for 11% of the total population-weighted exposure across the study domain. Off-road equipment contributed 3.7% to total population-weighted exposure in Houston, while natural gas combustion contributed 5% in Beaumont. Mobile sources accounted for 3.7% of the total HCHO population exposure, with less than 10% secondary contribution. Exposure disparity patterns changed with the location. Hispanic and Latino residents were exposed to HCHO concentrations +1.75% above average in Houston due to petroleum and industrial sources and natural gas sources. Black and African American residents in Beaumont were exposed to HCHO concentrations +7% above average due to petroleum and industrial sources, off-road equipment, and food cooking. Asian residents in Beaumont were exposed to HCHO concentrations that were +2.5% above average due to HCHO associated with petroleum and industrial sources, off-road vehicles, and food cooking. White residents were exposed to below average HCHO concentrations in all domains because their homes were located further from primary HCHO emission sources. Given the unique features of the exposure disparities in each region, tailored solutions should be developed by local stakeholders. Potential options to consider in the development of those solutions include modifying processes to reduce emissions, installing control equipment to capture emissions, or increasing the distance between industrial sources and residential neighborhoods.

Cleaning up while Changing Gears: The Role of Battery Design, Fossil Fuel Power Plants, and Vehicle Policy for Reducing Emissions in the Transition to Electric Vehicles.

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can reduce air emissions when charged with clean power, but prior work estimated that in 2010, PEVs produced 2 to 3 times the consequential air emission externalities of gasoline vehicles in PJM (the largest US regional transmission operator, serving 65 million people) due largely to increased generation from coal-fired power plants to charge the vehicles. We investigate how this situation has changed since 2010, where we are now, and what the largest levers are for reducing PEV consequential life cycle emission externalities in the near future. We estimate that PEV emission externalities have dropped by 17% to 18% in PJM as natural gas replaced coal, but they will remain comparable to gasoline vehicle externalities in base case trajectories through at least 2035. Increased wind and solar power capacity is critical to achieving deep decarbonization in the long run, but through 2035 we estimate that it will primarily shift which fossil generators operate on the margin at times when PEVs charge and can even increase consequential PEV charging emissions in the near term. We find that the largest levers for reducing PEV emissions over the next decade are (1) shifting away from nickel-based batteries to lithium iron phosphate, (2) reducing emissions from fossil generators, and (3) revising vehicle fleet emission standards. While our numerical estimates are regionally specific, key findings apply to most power systems today, in which renewable generators typically produce as much output as possible, regardless of the load, while dispatchable fossil fuel generators respond to the changes in load.

The Role of Emission Size Distribution on the Efficacy of New Technologies to Reduce Methane Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sector.

Methane emissions from oil and gas operations exhibit skewed distributions. New technologies such as aerial-based leak detection surveys promise cost-effective detection of large emitters (greater than 10 kg/h). Recent policies such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methane rule that allow the use of new technologies as part of leak detection and repair (LDAR) programs require a demonstration of equivalence with existing optical gas imaging (OGI) based LDAR programs. In this work, we illustrate the impact of emission size distribution on the equivalency condition between the OGI and site-wide survey technologies. Emission size distributions compiled from aerial measurements include significantly more emitters between 1 and 10 kg/h and lower average emission rates for large emitters compared to the emission distribution in the EPA rule. As a result, we find that equivalence may be achieved at lower site-wide survey frequencies when using technologies with detection thresholds below 10 kg/h, compared to the EPA rule. However, equivalence cannot be achieved with a detection threshold of 30 kg/h at any survey frequency, because most emitters across most US basins exhibit emission rates below 30 kg/h. We find that equivalence is a complex tradeoff among technology choice, design of LDAR programs, and survey frequency that can have more than one unique solution set.

Asymmetric impacts of climate policy uncertainty, investor sentiment on energy prices and renewable energy consumption: Evidence from NARDL and wavelet coherence.

This paper seeks to look into the asymmetric impacts posed by climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and investor sentiment (IS) upon the price of non-renewable energy, specifically natural gas prices, and the consumption of renewable energy, embodied in geothermal energy, biofuels, and fuel ethanol. To this end, the analysis draws on a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model and wavelet coherence (WTC) technique with monthly data from January 2000 to December 2021. The NARDL results establish an asymmetric association between the variables, where negative shocks to CPU exert a greater effect on each energy variable than positive shocks, while the reverse is true for IS. Furthermore, it has been noticed that CPU and IS exhibit primarily negative correlations with the target variables over the long term, with CPU having a more pronounced effect on natural gas prices than on other forms of renewable energy consumption. Wavelet analysis also reveals that CPU leads the energy variables over the medium to long run, while IS assumes a dominant role in the short to medium run. These momentous findings underscore the importance of this study in informing energy policy formulation and environmental management, as well as optimizing investor portfolios.

Feasibility study and techno-economic assessment of power-to-gas (P2G) technology based on solid oxide electrolysis (SOE).

Power-to-Gas (P2G) is considered as a promising energy storage technology in a long-time horizon. The rapid growth in the share of intermittent renewables in the energy mix is driving forward research and development in large-scale energy storage. This paper presents a feasibility analysis of a power-to-gas system in terms of various operating points and capacities. The analysis was performed using a system model, which features a solid oxide electrolyzer (SOE), a CO2 separation unit, and a methanation reactor as the key components. For the purposes of the techno-economic assessment (TEA) of the system, the CAPEX/OPEX estimation was performed and the cost structure defined. The model proposed in the study enables system-level optimization, including technical and economic criteria, considering two nominal scales: 10 kW and 40 GW, which corresponds to the nominal capacity of SOE in each case. According to the study, in an SOE-based P2G system, the cost of synthetic natural gas (SNG) production will fall by 15-21% by 2030 and 29-37% by 2050. SNG production would cost 3.15-3.75 EUR2023/kgSNG in 2030 and 2.6-3.0 EUR2023/kgSNG in 2050 for systems with SOE power >10 MW. Generally, product cost reductions occur as a result of material development and large-scale production, which influences the system's CAPEX. According to the research, the technology will break even by 2050. The large-scale power-to-gas system with a total of 40 GW installed capacity delivers a product price of 2.4 EUR2023/kgSNG with the average conversion efficiency of 68%.

From black to green: Quantifying the impact of economic growth, resource management, and green technologies on CO2 emissions.

In an exploration of environmental concerns, this groundbreaking research delves into the relationship between GDP per capita, coal rents, forest rents, mineral rents, oil rents, natural gas rents, fossil fuels, renewables, environmental tax and environment-related technologies on CO2 emissions in 30 highly emitting countries from 1995 to 2021 using instrumental-variables regression Two-Stage least squares (IV-2SLS) regression and two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimates. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions across all quantiles, showcasing an EKC with diminishing marginal effects. Coal rents exhibit a statistically significant negative relationship with emissions, particularly in higher quantiles, and mineral rents show a negative association with CO2 emissions in lower and middle quantiles, reinforcing the idea of resource management in emissions reduction. Fossil fuels exert a considerable adverse impact on emissions, with a rising effect in progressive quantiles. Conversely, renewable energy significantly curtails CO2 emissions, with higher impacts in lower quantiles. Environmental tax also mitigates CO2 emissions. Environment-related technologies play a pivotal role in emission reduction, particularly in lower and middle quantiles, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, highlighting the importance of tailoring interventions to different emission levels and leveraging diverse strategies for sustainable development.

Techno-economic evaluation of GHG emissions mitigation of biomethane upgrading technologies.

The current trend in the European biogas industry is to shift away from electricity production towards the production of biomethane for the need to replace natural gas. The upgrading of biogas to biomethane is normally performed by separating the biogas in a stream containing natural gas grid quality methane and a stream containing mostly CO2. The CO2 stream is normally released into the atmosphere; however, part of the methane may still remain in it, and, if not oxidized, even a small fraction of methane released may jeopardise all the GHG emissions savings from producing the biomethane, being methane a powerful climate forcer. Scope of this work is to assess the opportunity cost of installing an Off Gas Combustion (OGC) device in biomethane upgrading plants. The currently available technologies for biogas upgrading to biomethane and the most common technology of OGC (the Regenerative Thermal Oxidisers, RTO) are described according to their performances and cost. Then the cost per tonne of CO2eq avoided associated to the adoption of RTO systems in relation to the upgrading performance is calculated to identify a potential threshold for an effective and efficient application of the RTO systems. It is found that, in case of upgrading technologies which can capture almost all biomethane in the upgrading off-gas (i.e. 99.9%), currently the adoption of an RTO to oxidise the methane left in the off-gas would add costs and need additional fuel to be operated, but would generate limited GHG emission savings, therefore the cost per tonne of CO2eq emissions avoided would result not competitive with other GHG emissions mitigation investments. While the installation of RTOs on upgrading systems with a methane slip of 0.3%, or higher, normally results cost competitive in reducing GHG emissions. The installation of an RTO on systems with a methane slip of 0.2% results in a cost per tonne of CO2eq emissions avoided of 50-100 euro, which is comparable to the current cost of CO2 emissions allowances in the EU ETS carbon market, representing therefore a reasonable choice for a threshold on methane slip regulation for biogas upgrading systems.

Research on oxygen enrichment for municipal solid waste fly ash melting: A pilot-scale study on natural gas and coal as the melting fuel.

High energy consumption is the main obstacle of melting/vitrification technology for the disposal of municipal solid waste incineration fly ash (MSWIFA) for industrial applications. To reduce energy consumption and lower operating costs, oxygen enrichment melting was proposed and studied in this work. This research was conducted in a pilot-scale melting furnace, and three melting conditions were compared and discussed. The results showed that 66% of natural gas was saved and the operating cost was reduced by 55% when oxygen enrichment technology was applied to MSWIFA melting. When coal was used as the fuel with the oxygen enrichment melting technology, the operating cost was even lower at 66.39 dollar/ton of fly ash. Because MSWIFA was a Ca-rich material, the relatively high content of Si and Al in the coal fly ash promoted the formation of vitrificated slag, leading to a reduction in the overall pollution toxicity index (OPTI) of MSWIFA by 99.98%. Meanwhile, SO2, HCl, and secondary fly ash were the main pollutants during MSWIFA melting, and when coal was used as the fuel, the emissions of SO2 and HCl could be reduced and the OPTI of secondary fly ash was suppressed. These results suggested that to obtain the lowest operating cost and reduce secondary pollution during MSWIFA melting, the best option consisted of oxygen enrichment technology with coal as the fuel.

Hydrochar and synthetic natural gas co-production for a full circular economy implementation via hydrothermal carbonization and methanation: An economic approach.

Herein we study the economic performance of hydrochar and synthetic natural gas co-production from olive tree pruning. The process entails a combination of hydrothermal carbonization and methanation. In a previous work, we evidenced that standalone hydrochar production via HTC results unprofitable. Hence, we propose a step forward on the process design by implementing a methanation, adding value to the gas effluent in an attempt to boost the overall process techno-economic aspects. Three different plant capacities were analyzed (312.5, 625 and 1250 kg/hr). The baseline scenarios showed that, under the current circumstances, our circular economy strategy in unprofitable. An analysis of the revenues shows that hydrochar selling price have a high impact on NPV and subsidies for renewable coal production could help to boost the profitability of the process. On the contrary, the analysis for natural gas prices reveals that prices 8 times higher than the current ones in Spain must be achieved to reach profitability. This seems unlikely even under the presence of a strong subsidy scheme. The costs analysis suggests that a remarkable electricity cost reduction or electricity consumption of the HTC stage could be a potential strategy to reach profitability scenarios. Furthermore, significant reduction of green hydrogen production costs is deemed instrumental to improve the economic performance of the process. These results show the formidable techno-economic challenge that our society faces in the path towards circular economy societies.

Two-stage thermal pyrolysis of plastic solid waste: Set-up and operative conditions investigation for gaseous fuel production.

In response to the escalating global challenge of mounting plastic waste and the imperative to adopt more sustainable practices for resource utilization, our study focuses on the utilization of plastic solid waste (PSW) through a two-stage thermal pyrolysis process. This aims to demonstrate its potential as a high-performance alternative to existing two-stage catalytic pyrolysis methods. The experimentation involved processing real scrap PSW material in a lab-scale batch set-up, emphasizing optimizing residence time in the cracking reactor to maximize gas yield and its lower heating value (LHV). The study underscores the advantages of the employed two-stage thermal pyrolysis apparatus through a comparative analysis with established set-up dedicated to maximizing gas yield. Once the operative conditions were explored, resulting pyrolysis products underwent detailed characterization to assess their suitability as a sustainable fuel source. The study also presents a practical application of the produced gaseous fuel, envisioning its combustion in an internal combustion engine (ICE), known for its flexibility regarding fuel properties. This application is demonstrated through a simulation conducted in Unisim Design©. The successful processing of real PSW material in the two-stage lab-scale experimental set-up showcased optimal gas yield achievements (>65 % w/w) with an LHV (∼41 MJ/kg), comparable to that of natural gas. This emphasizes the potential of these sustainable alternatives to replace fossil fuels, especially in the context of ICE applications. The integration of the pyrolysis plant with an ICE demonstrated promising prospects for generating electricity in the transportation sector and facilitating thermal power for heat integration in pyrolysis reactors.