Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission.

Several lines of existing evidence support the possibility of airborne transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, quantitative information on the relative importance of transmission pathways of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains limited. To evaluate the relative importance of multiple transmission routes for SARS-CoV-2, we developed a modeling framework and leveraged detailed information available from the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak that occurred in early 2020. We modeled 21,600 scenarios to generate a matrix of solutions across a full range of assumptions for eight unknown or uncertain epidemic and mechanistic transmission factors. A total of 132 model iterations met acceptability criteria (R2 > 0.95 for modeled vs. reported cumulative daily cases and R2 > 0 for daily cases). Analyzing only these successful model iterations quantifies the likely contributions of each defined mode of transmission. Mean estimates of the contributions of short-range, long-range, and fomite transmission modes to infected cases across the entire simulation period were 35%, 35%, and 30%, respectively. Mean estimates of the contributions of larger respiratory droplets and smaller respiratory aerosols were 41% and 59%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that aerosol inhalation was likely the dominant contributor to COVID-19 transmission among the passengers, even considering a conservative assumption of high ventilation rates and no air recirculation conditions for the cruise ship. Moreover, close-range and long-range transmission likely contributed similarly to disease progression aboard the ship, with fomite transmission playing a smaller role. The passenger quarantine also affected the importance of each mode, demonstrating the impacts of the interventions.

Early relaxation of community mitigation policies and risk of COVID-19 resurgence in the United States.

This study aimed to assess the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) prevalence in the United States in the week leading to the relaxation of the stay-at-home orders (SAH) on future prevalence across states that implemented different SAH policies. We used data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as of August 21, 2020 on county level. We classified states into four groups based on the 7-day change in prevalence and the state's approach to SAH policy. The groups included: (1) High Change (19 states; 7-day prevalence change ≥50th percentile), (2) Low Change (19 states; 7-day prevalence change <50th percentile), (3) No SAH (11 states: did not adopt SAH order), and (4) No SAH End (2 states: did not relax SAH order). We performed regression modeling assessing the association between change in prevalence at the time of SAH order relaxation and COVID-19 prevalence days after the relaxation of SAH order for four selected groups. After adjusting for other factors, compared to the High Change group, counties in the Low Change group had 33.8 (per 100,000 population) fewer cases (standard error (SE): 19.8, p < 0.001) 7 days after the relaxation of SAH order and the difference was larger by time passing. On August 21, 2020, the No SAH End group had 383.1 fewer cases (per 100,000 population) than the High Change group (SE: 143.6, p < 0.01). A measured, evidence-based approach is required to safely relax the community mitigation strategies and practice phased-reopening of the country.

Views on the need to implement restriction policies to be able to address COVID-19 in the United States.

Several restriction policies implemented in many states in the United States have demonstrated their effectiveness in mitigating the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but less is known about the differences in views on the restriction policies among different population segments. This study aimed to understand which different population groups of adults in the United States consider several key restriction policies as necessary to combat COVID-19. Survey data from Wave 64 (March 19-24, 2020) of the Pew Research Center's American Trends Panel (n=10,609) and logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, employment status, political party affiliation, news exposure, census region, and opinions about COVID-19 restriction policies. The policies included restricting international travel, imposing business closures, banning large group gatherings, cancelling entertainment events, closing schools, limiting restaurants to carry-out only, and postponing state primary elections. Most survey respondents viewed COVID-19 restriction policies as necessary. Views on each restriction policy varied substantially across some population segments such as age, race, and ethnicity. Regardless of population segments, those who followed news closely or considered themselves Democrat/lean Democrat were more likely to consider all the policies as necessary than those not following the news closely or those who considered themselves Republican/lean Republican. The effectiveness of key COVID-19 restriction policies is likely to vary substantially across population groups given that views on the need to implement these policies vary widely. Tailored health messages may be needed for some population segments given divergent views on COVID-19 restriction policies.

From blanket quarantine in Wuhan to distant centralized quarantine in Shijiazhuang: the evolution of China's COVID-19 quarantine approach.

With COVID-19 spreading globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. COVID-19 swept many countries and regions worldwide. An effective response to COVID-19 requires newer and more creative tools. In this paper, we discussed the evolution of China's COVID-19 quarantine approach, compared the blanket quarantine in Wuhan and the distant centralized quarantine in rural areas of Shijiazhuang, and analyzed the important issues which authorities will have to pay attention to ensure success from the moment they begin to take close contacts to the single room isolation in a distant quarantine center. The large-scale distant centralized quarantine strategy in Shijiazhuang cut off the transmission of COVID-19 within 1 month. This strategy may inform other countries and regions of a feasible and effective approach to combat the global pandemic of COVID-19.

Eviction, Health Inequity, and the Spread of COVID-19: Housing Policy as a Primary Pandemic Mitigation Strategy.

The COVID-19 pandemic precipitated catastrophic job loss, unprecedented unemployment rates, and severe economic hardship in renter households. As a result, housing precarity and the risk of eviction increased and worsened during the pandemic, especially among people of color and low-income populations. This paper considers the implications of this eviction crisis for health and health inequity, and the need for eviction prevention policies during the pandemic. Eviction and housing displacement are particularly threatening to individual and public health during a pandemic. Eviction is likely to increase COVID-19 infection rates because it results in overcrowded living environments, doubling up, transiency, limited access to healthcare, and a decreased ability to comply with pandemic mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing, self-quarantine, and hygiene practices). Indeed, recent studies suggest that eviction may increase the spread of COVID-19 and that the absence or lifting of eviction moratoria may be associated with an increased rate of COVID-19 infection and death. Eviction is also a driver of health inequity as historic trends, and recent data demonstrate that people of color are more likely to face eviction and associated comorbidities. Black people have had less confidence in their ability to pay rent and are dying at 2.1 times the rate of non-Hispanic Whites. Indigenous Americans and Hispanic/Latinx people face an infection rate almost 3 times the rate of non-Hispanic whites. Disproportionate rates of both COVID-19 and eviction in communities of color compound negative health effects make eviction prevention a critical intervention to address racial health inequity. In light of the undisputed connection between eviction and health outcomes, eviction prevention, through moratoria and other supportive measures, is a key component of pandemic control strategies to mitigate COVID-19 spread and death.

The distribution of SARS-CoV-2 contamination on the environmental surfaces during incubation period of COVID-19 patients.

Roles of environmental factors in transmission of COVID-19 have been highlighted. In this study, we sampled the high-touch environmental surfaces in the quarantine room, aiming to detect the distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on the environmental surfaces during the incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Fifteen sites were sampled from the quarantine room, distributing in the functional areas such as bedroom, bathroom and living room. All environmental surface samples were collected with sterile polyester-tipped applicator pre-moistened in viral transport medium and tested for SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 34.1% of samples were detected positively for SARS-CoV-2. The positive rates of Patient A, B and C, were 46.2%, 0% and 61.5%, respectively. SARS-CoV-2 was detected positively in bedroom and bathroom, with the positive rate of 50.0% and 46.7%, respectively. In contrast, living room had no positive sample detected. Environmental contamination of SARS-CoV-2 distributes widely during the incubation period of COVID-19, and the positive rates of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces are relatively high in bathroom and bedroom.

Establishment of Isolation and Noncongregate Hotels During COVID-19 and Symptom Evolution Among People Experiencing Homelessness-Atlanta, Georgia, 2020.

CONTEXT: Local agencies across the United States have identified public health isolation sites for individuals with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are not able to isolate in residence. PROGRAM: We describe logistics of establishing and operating isolation and noncongregate hotels for COVID-19 mitigation and use the isolation hotel as an opportunity to understand COVID-19 symptom evolution among people experiencing homelessness (PEH). IMPLEMENTATION: Multiple agencies in Atlanta, Georgia, established an isolation hotel for PEH with COVID-19 and noncongregate hotel for PEH without COVID-19 but at risk of severe illness. PEH were referred to the isolation hotel through proactive, community-based testing and hospital-based testing. Daily symptoms were recorded prospectively. Disposition location was recorded for all clients. EVALUATION: During April 10 to September 1, 2020, 181 isolation hotel clients (77 community referrals; 104 hospital referrals) were admitted a median 3 days after testing. Overall, 32% of community referrals and 7% of hospital referrals became symptomatic after testing positive; 83% of isolation hotel clients reported symptoms at some point; 93% completed isolation. Among 302 noncongregate hotel clients, median stay was 18 weeks; 61% were discharged to permanent housing or had a permanent housing discharge plan. DISCUSSION: Overall, a high proportion of PEH completed isolation at the hotel, suggesting a high level of acceptability. Many PEH with COVID-19 diagnosed in the community developed symptoms after testing, indicating that proactive, community-based testing can facilitate early isolation. Noncongregate hotels can be a useful COVID-19 community mitigation strategy by bridging PEH at risk of severe illness to permanent housing.

Associations Between State Public Health Agency Structure and Pace and Extent of Implementation of Social Distancing Control Measures.

OBJECTIVE: To assess associations between state public health agency governance and timing and extent of implementation of social distancing control measures during COVID-19 response. DESIGN: State public health agencies were stratified by governance, and data on timing and extent of social distancing were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Multinomial logistic regression and time-to-event analyses were conducted to quantify impacts of governance structure on timing and extent of social distancing. SETTING: State health departments in the United States. RESULTS: States operating under centralized public health governance structures enacted social distancing 4 days after decentralized states and had a 73% reduced likelihood of enacting a social distancing policy (hazard ratio = 0.27; 95% CI, 0.08 to 0.86). CONCLUSION: State health department governance structure may have implications on timing and extent of social distancing control measures implemented during a public health emergency.

Challenges and Controversies to Testing for COVID-19.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has placed the clinical laboratory and testing for SARS-CoV-2 front and center in the worldwide discussion of how to end the outbreak. Clinical laboratories have responded by developing, validating, and implementing a variety of molecular and serologic assays to test for SARS-CoV-2 infection. This has played an essential role in identifying cases, informing isolation decisions, and helping to curb the spread of disease. However, as the demand for COVID-19 testing has increased, laboratory professionals have faced a growing list of challenges, uncertainties, and, in some situations, controversy, as they have attempted to balance the need for increasing test capacity with maintaining a high-quality laboratory operation. The emergence of this new viral pathogen has raised unique diagnostic questions for which there have not always been straightforward answers. In this commentary, the author addresses several areas of current debate, including (i) the role of molecular assays in defining the duration of isolation/quarantine, (ii) whether the PCR cycle threshold value should be included on patient reports, (iii) if specimen pooling and testing by research staff represent acceptable solutions to expand screening, and (iv) whether testing a large percentage of the population is feasible and represents a viable strategy to end the pandemic.

Medical Isolation and Solitary Confinement: Balancing Health and Humanity in US Jails and Prisons During COVID-19.

In the face of the continually worsening COVID-19 pandemic, jails and prisons have become the greatest vectors of community transmission and are a point of heightened crisis and fear within the global crisis. Critical public health tools to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 are medical isolation and quarantine, but use of these tools is complicated in prisons and jails where decades of overuse of punitive solitary confinement is the norm. This has resulted in advocates denouncing the use of any form of isolation and attorneys litigating to end its use. It is essential to clarify the critical differences between punitive solitary confinement and the ethical use of medical isolation and quarantine during a pandemic. By doing so, then all those invested in stopping the spread of COVID-19 in prisons can work together to integrate medically sound, humane forms of medical isolation and quarantine that follow community standards of care rather than punitive forms of solitary confinement to manage COVID-19.

Stay-at-home orders and firearms in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Firearms are a leading cause of death and injury in the United States, and this trend has continued during the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to identify whether states designated gun retailers as essential businesses in their stay-at-home orders and characterize other references that could affect firearm acquisition during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this cross-sectional policy review, we assessed stay-at-home orders issued in March or April 2020. Orders were reviewed in their entirety, and any reference to firearms, firearm retailers, shooting ranges, or other relevant elements was documented. Forty-three states and the District of Columbia issued stay-at-home orders. Most considered federal firearm licensees to be among essential businesses or made provisions for them to remain open during widespread business closures. Others referenced the US Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) advisory memorandum on essential critical infrastructure workers which named workers supporting firearm manufacturing and retail among essential workers. Therefore, stay-at-home orders issued in most states included provisions for firearms retailers to remain open, at least in some capacity. Only four states and the District of Columbia did not include federal firearms licensees among essential businesses or include provisions for them to be open. Meanwhile, an all-time high in firearm background checks indicates firearm sales have markedly increased. Given the associations between firearm access and injury risk, the effects of continued firearm access facilitated by these orders should be the focus of future research.

Containing 2019-nCoV (Wuhan) coronavirus.

The novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV first appeared in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. While most of the initial cases were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, person-to-person transmission has been verified. Given that a vaccine cannot be developed and deployed for at least a year, preventing further transmission relies upon standard principles of containment, two of which are the isolation of known cases and the quarantine of persons believed at high risk of exposure. This note presents probability models for assessing the effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine within a community during the initial phase of an outbreak with illustrations based on early observations from Wuhan.

Telemedicine During the COVID-19 in Italy: A Missed Opportunity?

In the time of COVID-19 epidemic, Italy was found unprepared to manage lockdown patients with chronic diseases, due to limited availability and diffusion of large-scale telemedicine solutions. The scattered distribution and heterogeneity of available tools, the lack of integration with the electronic health record of the national health system, the poor interconnection between telemedicine services operating at different levels, the lack of a real multidisciplinary approach to the patient's management, the heavy privacy regulations, and lack of clear guidelines, together with the lack of reimbursement, all hinder the implementation of effective telemedicine solutions for long-term patients' management. This COVID-19 epidemic should help promote better use and a larger integration of telemedicine services in the armamentarium of health care services. Telemedicine must no longer be considered as an option or add-on to react to an emergency.

[COVID-19: new challenges for medical science and practical health].

Currently, due to the wide spread of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 and the need for anti-epidemic measures, medical science should integrate all efforts to ensure, on the one hand, at the global level - the fight against the spread of infection, on the other hand, at the individual level - increasing the adaptive capacity and immune response of the organism to protect against COVID-19. Nutrition is the most important factor determining human health and the functioning of all mechanisms to protect a person from negative environmental factors. For the prevention and treatment of new coronavirus infection COVID-19, a significant role is played by the correction of eating disorders, including vitamin and micronutrient deficiency. Federal Research Centre of Nutrition and Biotechnology, together with Russian Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor), prepared Recommendations on nutrition for children and adults, requiring a self-isolation regime or quarantine at home in connection with COVID-19. In order to promptly inform and advise the population on nutrition optimization in the early days of anti-epidemic measures, an information reference Contact Center was created and is continuously functioning on the basis of the Federal Research Centre of Nutrition and Biotechnology. Equally important is the implementation of measures aimed at the prevention of food contamination with COVID-19 agent. In this regard, the Federal Research Centre of Nutrition and Biotechnology, together with Rospotrebnadzor prepared guidelines on measures to prevent the transmission of a new coronavirus infection through foods. Another aspect that the medical community has faced in connection with the pandemic is the need to reorient specialized medical organizations that have not previously worked with patients with infectious diseases in order to create Clinical centers for the treatment of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19. Thus, in the context of the spread of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19, many areas of medicine are involved in the process of providing anti-epidemic measures. Successful completion of the tasks will significantly reduce the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for the state and citizens.

Putting the Law Into Practice: A Comparison of Isolation and Quarantine As Tools to Control Tuberculosis and Ebola.

The recent Ebola epidemic has put the words "isolation and quarantine" in the spotlight. Isolation and quarantine are tools that are often utilized by public health officials around the United States to address various types of infectious disease, including tuberculosis. While voluntary compliance is preferred, it can be difficult to achieve. In cases where an individual chooses not to voluntarily comply with an isolation or quarantine request, public health officials require assistance from the judiciary and law enforcement to effectuate the order. This article compares 2 recent court cases with different outcomes where public health officials sought assistance from the courts to enforce an isolation or quarantine order.

Écart de mobilité : estimation des seuils de mobilité requis pour maîtriser le SRAS-CoV-2 au Canada.

CONTEXTE: Les interventions non pharmacologiques demeurent le principal moyen de maîtriser le coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère 2 (SRAS-CoV-2) d'ici à ce que la couverture vaccinale soit suffisante pour donner lieu à une immunité collective. Nous avons utilisé des données de mobilité anonymisées de téléphones intelligents afin de quantifier le niveau de mobilité requis pour maîtriser le SRAS-CoV-2 (c.-à-d., seuil de mobilité), et la différence par rapport au niveau de mobilité observé (c.-à-d., écart de mobilité). MÉTHODES: Nous avons procédé à une analyse de séries chronologiques sur l'incidence hebdomadaire du SRAS-CoV-2 au Canada entre le 15 mars 2020 et le 6 mars 2021. Le paramètre mesuré était le taux de croissance hebdomadaire, défini comme le rapport entre les cas d'une semaine donnée et ceux de la semaine précédente. Nous avons mesuré les effets du temps moyen passé hors domicile au cours des 3 semaines précédentes à l'aide d'un modèle de régression log-normal, en tenant compte de la province, de la semaine et de la température moyenne. Nous avons calculé le seuil de mobilité et l'écart de mobilité pour le SRAS-CoV-2. RÉSULTATS: Au cours des 51 semaines de l'étude, en tout, 888 751 personnes ont contracté le SRAS-CoV-2. Chaque augmentation de 10 % de l'écart de mobilité a été associée à une augmentation de 25 % du taux de croissance des cas hebdomadaires de SRAS-CoV-2 (rapport 1,25, intervalle de confiance à 95 % 1,20­1,29). Comparativement à la mobilité prépandémique de référence de 100 %, le seuil de mobilité a été plus élevé au cours de l'été (69 %, écart interquartile [EI] 67 %­70 %), et a chuté à 54 % pendant l'hiver 2021 (EI 52 %­55 %); un écart de mobilité a été observé au Canada entre juillet 2020 et la dernière semaine de décembre 2020. INTERPRÉTATION: La mobilité permet de prédire avec fiabilité et constance la croissance des cas hebdomadaires et il faut maintenir des niveaux faibles de mobilité pour maîtriser le SRAS-CoV-2 jusqu'à la fin du printemps 2021. Les données de mobilité anonymisées des téléphones intelligents peuvent servir à guider le relâchement ou le resserrement des mesures de distanciation physique provinciales et régionales.