Improving forecasting accuracy of medium and long-term runoff using artificial neural network based on EEMD decomposition.

Hydrological time series forecasting is one of the most important applications in modern hydrology, especially for the effective reservoir management. In this research, an artificial neural network (ANN) model coupled with the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is presented for forecasting medium and long-term runoff time series. First, the original runoff time series is decomposed into a finite and often small number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual series using EEMD technique for attaining deeper insight into the data characteristics. Then all IMF components and residue are predicted, respectively, through appropriate ANN models. Finally, the forecasted results of the modeled IMFs and residual series are summed to formulate an ensemble forecast for the original annual runoff series. Two annual reservoir runoff time series from Biuliuhe and Mopanshan in China, are investigated using the developed model based on four performance evaluation measures (RMSE, MAPE, R and NSEC). The results obtained in this work indicate that EEMD can effectively enhance forecasting accuracy and the proposed EEMD-ANN model can attain significant improvement over ANN approach in medium and long-term runoff time series forecasting.

Effect of postmining waters on cyanobacterial photosynthesis.

New waterbodies have been created in a postmining area of the brown-coal basin in Sokolov, Czech Republic. The former open-cast quarry, Medard, has been filling with water from a local river, the surrounding catchment spoil heaps, and acid mine drainages. The effect of acidic (pH down to 2.5) and high-conductivity water (up to 1400 mS/m) on selected cyanobacteria and the possibility of cyanobacterial water bloom in the newly formed Lake Medard were studied by means of chlorophyll fluorometry (actual photosystem II [PSII] quantum yield, ΔF/Fm', and relative electron transport rate, rETR). The acidic spoil-heap waters caused a decrease in cyanobacterial photosynthetic activity of 52 to 100% of the initial ΔF/Fm' value. The Dolichospermum strains were about 10 times more sensitive than Microcystis viridis. The high concentration of dissolved ions appeared to have less effect on cyanobacterial PSII. Although the bottom meta- and hypolimnion layers were proven to negatively influence the cyanobacteria, the perennial stratification of the lake does not enable the water characteristics of the upper layers to change extensively and thus possibly suppresses the undesirable cyanobacterial bloom. The response of cyanobacteria to spoil-heap waters appears to be species-specific and can promote selection of those resistant to postmining environments.

Climate change and the water cycle in newly irrigated areas.

Climate change is affecting agriculture doubly: evapotranspiration is increasing due to increments in temperature while the availability of water resources is decreasing. Furthermore, irrigated areas are expanding worldwide. In this study, the dynamics of climate change impacts on the water cycle of a newly irrigated watershed are studied through the calculation of soil water balances. The study area was a 752-ha watershed located on the left side of the Ebro river valley, in Northeast Spain. The soil water balance procedures were carried out throughout 1827 consecutive days (5 years) of hydrological and agronomical monitoring in the study area. Daily data from two agroclimatic stations were used as well. Evaluation of the impact of climate change on the water cycle considered the creation of two future climate scenarios for comparison: 2070 decade with climate change and 2070 decade without climate change. The main indicators studied were precipitation, irrigation, reference evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, drainage from the watershed, and irrigation losses. The aridity index was also applied. The results represent a baseline scenario in which adaptation measures may be included and tested to reduce the impacts of climate change in the studied area and other similar areas.

The influence of natural and human factors in the shrinking of the Ebinur Lake, Xinjiang, China, during the 1972-2013 period.

The Ebinur Lake is a closed inland lake located within the arid region of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region in the northwestern part of China, near the Kazakhstan border. The shrinkage of the lake area is believed to be caused by ecological environmental deterioration and has become an important restraining factor for the social development of the local population. Of all the lakes in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, the Ebinur Lake is the most severely impacted water body. The lake has undergone change in size naturally for over thousands of years due to natural causes. However, the authors observed the dramatic changes in the freshwater resources of this region from the aerial images from 1972 to 2013. Thus, this paper traces and analyzes the change in the Ebinur Lake surface area in the past 41 years. A set of six satellite images acquired between 1972 and 2013 was employed to map the change in the surface area of the Ebinur Lake using the water index approach. The authors applied the traditional normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) to quantify the change in the water body area of the Ebinur Lake during the study period. The results indicate that the lake area has experienced a dramatic decrease of 31.4% from 1972 to 2013. The paper also examines the natural processes and human activities that may have contributed to the decrease in the lake area. The results show that the decrease in total lake area appears to coincide with periods of rapid land reclamation in the study area. Moreover, the uncontrolled land reclamation activities, such as irrigation, can increase the sedimentation in the Ebinur Lake thereby reducing the lake size. Reduction of the lake area has a negative ecological impact on the environment and on human life and property. The lake area is the most important factor to ensure the environment of the watershed and the key index to measure the environment balance.

Temporal change in land use by irrigation source in Tamil Nadu and management implications.

Interannual variation in rainfall throughout Tamil Nadu has been causing frequent and noticeable land use changes despite the rapid development in groundwater irrigation. Identifying periodically water-stressed areas is the first and crucial step to minimizing negative effects on crop production. Such analysis must be conducted at the basin level as it is an independent water accounting unit. This paper investigates the temporal variation in irrigated area between 2000-2001 and 2010-2011 due to rainfall variation at the state and sub-basin level by mapping and classifying Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day composite satellite imagery using spectral matching techniques. A land use/land cover map was drawn with an overall classification accuracy of 87.2%. Area estimates between the MODIS-derived net irrigated area and district-level statistics (2000-2001 to 2007-2008) were in 95% agreement. A significant decrease in irrigated area (30-40%) was observed during the water-stressed years of 2002-2003, 2003-2004, and 2009-2010. Major land use changes occurred three times during 2000 to 2010. This study demonstrates how remote sensing can identify areas that are prone to repeated land use changes and pin-point key target areas for the promotion of drought-tolerant varieties, alternative water management practices, and new cropping patterns to ensure sustainable agriculture for food security and livelihoods.

Mapping of groundwater potential zones in Salem Chalk Hills, Tamil Nadu, India, using remote sensing and GIS techniques.

This study proposes to introduce the remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques in mapping the groundwater potential zones. Remote sensing and GIS techniques have been used to map the groundwater potential zones in Salem Chalk Hills, Tamil Nadu, India. Charnockites and fissile hornblende biotite gneiss are the major rock types in this region. Dunites and peridodites are the ultramafic rocks which cut across the foliation planes of the gneisses and are highly weathered. It comprises magnesite and chromite deposits which are excavated by five mining companies by adopting bench mining. The thickness of weathered and fracture zone varies from 2.2 to 50 m in gneissic formation and 5.8 to 55 m in charnockite. At the contacts of gneiss and charnockite, the thickness ranges from 9.0 to 90.8 m favoring good groundwater potential. The mine lease area is underlined by fractured and sheared hornblende biotite gneiss where groundwater potential is good. Water catchment tanks in this area of 5 km radius are small to moderate in size and are only seasonal. They remain dry during summer seasons. As perennial water resources are remote, the domestic and agricultural activities in this region depend mainly upon the groundwater resources. The mines are located in gently slope area, and accumulation of water is not observed except in mine pits even during the monsoon period. Therefore, it is essential to map the groundwater potential zones for proper management of the aquifer system. Satellite imageries were also used to extract lineaments, hydrogeomorphic landforms, drainage patterns, and land use, which are the major controlling factors for the occurrence of groundwater. Various thematic layers pertaining to groundwater existence such as geology, geomorphology, land use/land cover, lineament, lineament density, drainage, drainage density, slope, and soil were generated using GIS tools. By integrating all the above thematic layers based on the ranks and weightages, eventually groundwater potential zones were demarcated. The study indicates that groundwater potential is good to high in 22 villages and moderate in 13 villages. The good to high potential zone occupies an area of 128 km2 and moderate potential zone occupies an area of 77 km2. Groundwater occurrence is poor in five villages which need artificial recharge to augment groundwater.

Mapping of coastal aquifer vulnerable zone in the south west coast of Kanyakumari, South India, using GIS-based DRASTIC model.

The south west coast of Kanyakumari district in Tamil Nadu, India, is significantly affected by seawater intrusion and diffusion of pollutants into the aquifers due to unregulated beach placer mining and other anthropogenic activities. The present study investigates the vulnerability of the coastal aquifers using Geographic Information System (GIS)-based DRASTIC model. The seven DRASTIC parameters have been analyzed using the statistical equation of this model to demarcate the vulnerable zones for aquifer contamination. The vulnerability index map is prepared from the weighted spatial parameters, and an accounting of total index value ranged from 85 to 213. Based on the categorization of vulnerability classes, the high vulnerable zones are found near the beach placer mining areas between Manavalakurichi and Kodimanal coastal stretches. The aquifers associated with settlements and agricultural lands in the middle-eastern part have experienced high vulnerability due to contaminated water bodies. Similarly, the coastal areas of Thengapattinam and Manakudi estuary and around the South Tamaraikulam have also been falling under high vulnerability condition due to backwater and saltpan. In general, the nearshore region except the placer mining zone and the backwater has a moderately vulnerable condition, and the vulnerability index values range from 149 to180. Significantly, the northern and northeastern uplands and some parts of deposition zones in the middle-south coast have been identified as low to no vulnerable conditions. They are structurally controlled by various geological features such as charnockite, garnet biotite gneiss and granites, and sand dunes, respectively. The aquifer vulnerability assessment has been cross-verified by geochemical indicators such as total dissolved solids (TDS), Cl(-), HCO3(-), and Cl(-)/HCO3(-) ratio. The high ranges of TDS (1,842--3,736 mg/l) and Cl(-) (1,412--2,112 mg/l) values are well correlated with the observed high vulnerable zones in the study area. The Cl(-)/HCO3(-) ratio (7.13 to 12.18) of the high vulnerable zone obviously indicates deterioration of the aquifer contamination. Sensitivity analysis has also been performed to evaluate sensitivity of the individual DRASTIC parameters to aquifer vulnerability. This reveals the net recharge rate and groundwater table depth are becoming more sensitive to aquifer contamination. It is realized that the GIS is an effective platform for aquifer vulnerability mapping with reliable accuracy, and hence, the study is more useful for sustainable water resource management and the aquifer conservation.

Forecasting of dissolved oxygen in the Guanting reservoir using an optimized NGBM (1,1) model.

An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guanting reservoir inlet and outlet (China). The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What's more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting.

A new bankruptcy method for conflict resolution in water resources allocation.

Growing competition over water resources has caused political disputes among stakeholders and has brought conflict resolution in the focus of negotiation processes. In these cases, bankruptcy rules for redistributing an asset when it is not sufficient to meet all claims could be applied. In this paper, we develop a new bankruptcy rule for water resources problems that considers agents' contribution to the total resources as well as their claims, which is in accordance with the UN Watercourses Convention (1997), as important factors for reallocation. Using the Euphrates River and a hypothetical case from the literature as examples, the new rule is compared with four alternative rules. The results show that the novel solution is potentially more powerful to help solving conflicts over river sharing problems.

Integrated water resources management and water users' associations in the arid region of northwest China: a case study of farmers' perceptions.

Water scarcity is a critical policy issue in the arid regions of northwest China. The local government has widely adopted integrated water resources management (IWRM), but lacks support from farmers and farm communities. We undertook a case study in the Minqin oasis of northwest China to examine farmers' responses to IWRM and understand why farmer water users' associations (WUAs) are not functioning effectively at the community level. Results of quantitative and qualitative surveys of 392 farmers in 27 administrative villages showed that over 70% of farmers disapprove of the IWRM market-based reforms. In particular, the failure of farmer WUAs can be attributed to overlapping organizational structures between the WUAs and the villagers' committees; mismatches between the organizational scale of the WUAs and practical irrigation management by the farmers themselves; marginalization of rural women in water decision-making processes; and the inflexibility of IWRM implementation. An important policy implication from this study is that rebuilding farmer WUAs is key to overcoming the difficulties of IWRM. The current water governance structure, which is dominated by administrative systems, must be thoroughly reviewed to break the vicious cycle of tension and distrust between farmers and the government.

The role of desalinisation to address aquifer overdraft in SE Spain.

Aquifer overdraft is a major environmental and water management problem in Southeast Spain. In some areas, availability of desalinised seawater resources is being expanding, which provides an opportunity to address this problem at a lower social and economic cost. We analyse the economic impact of using several instruments to address the problem of non-renewable groundwater pumping in the aquifers of the Guadalentín basin: an environmental tax on groundwater use, the buyback of groundwater rights and the subsidization of desalinised resources. Their impact is assessed using a mathematical programming model that maximises the farm net margin resulting from the use of the available water resources for irrigation in the area. Our results show that, in the current situation of water availability, all the alternatives have significant economic impacts. Moreover, the first two alternatives would be unfeasible from a political point of view. The existence of abundant, though expensive, desalinised water resources in the foreseen future would reduce, but not eliminate, the negative economic impact of such instruments. Furthermore, water demand is so high in this area that even strongly subsidising desalinised water in exchange for reducing the use of groundwater would not allow to eliminate aquifer overdraft.

A review of surface water quality models.

Surface water quality models can be useful tools to simulate and predict the levels, distributions, and risks of chemical pollutants in a given water body. The modeling results from these models under different pollution scenarios are very important components of environmental impact assessment and can provide a basis and technique support for environmental management agencies to make right decisions. Whether the model results are right or not can impact the reasonability and scientificity of the authorized construct projects and the availability of pollution control measures. We reviewed the development of surface water quality models at three stages and analyzed the suitability, precisions, and methods among different models. Standardization of water quality models can help environmental management agencies guarantee the consistency in application of water quality models for regulatory purposes. We concluded the status of standardization of these models in developed countries and put forward available measures for the standardization of these surface water quality models, especially in developing countries.

Multilevel analysis of childhood nonviral gastroenteritis associated with environmental risk factors in Quebec, 1999-2006.

Childhood nonviral gastroenteritis is a priority for various public health authorities. Given that waterborne transmission is sometimes incriminated during investigation of gastroenteritis outbreaks, the authors hypothesized that watershed characteristics may influence the occurrence of this disease and could contribute additional insights for better prevention and control. The study described here aimed to investigate watershed characteristics in relation to nonviral gastroenteritis and specifically three bacterial and parasitic forms of childhood gastroenteritis to assess their relative importance in the province of Quebec, Canada. Information on children aged 0-4 years with bacterial or parasitic enteric infections reported through ongoing surveillance between 1999 and 2006 in the province of Quebec was collected. Factors measured at the municipal and watershed levels were analyzed using multilevel models with a Poisson distribution and log link function. Childhood nonviral gastroenteritis, giardiasis, and campylobacteriosis were positively associated with small ruminants and cattle density. Childhood salmonellosis was positively associated with cattle density. Also, childhood campylobacteriosis incidence was positively associated with larger watershed agricultural surface. In addition to local agroenvironmental factors, this analysis revealed an important watershed effect.

Hydrostratigraphy and hydrogeology of the western part of Maira area, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: a case study by using electrical resistivity.

Hydrostratigraphy and hydrogeology of the Maira vicinity is important for the characterization of aquifer system and developing numerical groundwater flow models to predict the future availability of the water resource. Conventionally, the aquifer parameters are obtained by the analysis of pumping tests data which provide limited spatial information and turn out to be costly and time consuming. Vertical electrical soundings and pump testing of boreholes were conducted to delineate the aquifer system at the western part of the Maira area, Khyber Pakhtun Khwa, Pakistan. Aquifer lithology in the eastern part of the study area is dominated by coarse sand and gravel whereas the western part is characterized by fine sand. An attempt has been made to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer system by establishing a relationship between the pumping test results and vertical electrical soundings by using regression technique. The relationship is applied to the area along the resistivity profiles where boreholes are not drilled. Our findings show a good match between pumped hydraulic conductivity and estimated hydraulic conductivity. In case of sparse borehole data, regression technique is useful in estimating hydraulic properties for aquifers with varying lithology.

Mapping of groundwater potential zones across Ghana using remote sensing, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling.

Groundwater development across much of sub-Saharan Africa is constrained by a lack of knowledge on the suitability of aquifers for borehole construction. The main objective of this study was to map groundwater potential at the country-scale for Ghana to identify locations for developing new supplies that could be used for a range of purposes. Groundwater potential zones were delineated using remote sensing and geographical information system (GIS) techniques drawing from a database that includes climate, geology, and satellite data. Subjective scores and weights were assigned to each of seven key spatial data layers and integrated to identify groundwater potential according to five categories ranging from very good to very poor derived from the total percentage score. From this analysis, areas of very good groundwater potential are estimated to cover 689,680 ha (2.9 % of the country), good potential 5,158,955 ha (21.6 %), moderate potential 10,898,140 ha (45.6 %), and poor/very poor potential 7,167,713 ha (30 %). The results were independently tested against borehole yield data (2,650 measurements) which conformed to the anticipated trend between groundwater potential and borehole yield. The satisfactory delineation of groundwater potential zones through spatial modeling suggests that groundwater development should first focus on areas of the highest potential. This study demonstrates the importance of remote sensing and GIS techniques in mapping groundwater potential at the country-scale and suggests that similar methods could be applied across other African countries and regions.

Occurrence of pesticide residues in Lebanon's water resources.

Contamination of water sources by pesticides is one of the most critical environmental problems. The present work is designed to address the occurrence of 67 pesticides in the Lebanese waters. Chemical analysis was performed by a solid-phase extraction followed by a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry using programmed temperature vaporization injection. In drinking water and groundwater samples, organochlorine and organophosphate pesticides were frequently detected with a maximal sum concentration of up to 31.8 ng L(-1). High pesticide ecotoxicological risk was noticed in many surface waters, while this risk was driven mainly by diazinon, chlorpyrifos, fenpropathrin and bifenthrin insecticides.

Bioaccumulation of six PCB indicator congeners in a heavily polluted water reservoir in Eastern Slovakia: tissue-specific distribution in fish and their parasites.

Concentrations of six indicator PCB congeners (IUPAC nos. 28, 52, 101, 138, 153, and 180) were measured in several organs and adipose tissue of a freshwater predatory fishes (European perch, northern pike, pike perch, wels catfish) as well as in nonpredators (common carp, freshwater bream, goldfish, white bream) and in acanthocephalan Acanthocephalus lucii from the water reservoir Zemplínska sírava (Eastern Slovakia), which is considered to be one of the most PCB-contaminated places in Europe. Concentration of PCBs was determined by capillary gas chromatography in samples from May to September 2009. The two-way main-effect ANOVA confirmed that feeding habits of fish (P < 0.00001) and peculiarity of individual fish organs (P < 0.01) affect PCB bioaccumulation. The total amount of PCBs was significantly higher (P < 0.05) in predators compared to nonpredators. Tissue-specific differences were found in PCB accumulation in both fish groups. PCBs were predominantly accumulated in the liver and hard roe. Individual congeners were not distributed homogeneously within the investigated organs and adipose tissue. PCB 153 was present in higher concentrations than the other congeners in all fish organs as well as in adipose tissue comprising an average 31 and 34 % of ΣPCB in predators and nonpredators, respectively. Acanthocephalans, attached to the intestine of perch, absorbed significantly higher concentrations of PCBs (P < 0.001) than the muscles, liver, kidney, brain, and adipose tissue of their host. About 20 times lower amount of PCBs was detected in the liver and almost 3 times in muscles of infected perch. Data on PCB accumulation in perch infected with acanthocephalans demonstrated a decline of PCB values in all organs as well as in adipose tissue compared to noninfected fish. About 20 times lower amount of PCBs was detected in the liver and almost 3 times in muscles of infected perch. Present results could indicate that some parasitic organisms may influence positively their hosts in PCB-contaminated environment.

Strategies for the removal of halides from drinking water sources, and their applicability in disinfection by-product minimisation: a critical review.

The presence of bromide (Br(-)) and iodide (I(-)) in source waters leads to the formation of brominated and iodinated disinfection by-products (DBPs), which are often more toxic than their chlorinated analogues. The increasing scarcity of water resources in Australia is leading to use of impaired and alternative water supplies with high bromide and iodide levels, which may result in the production of more brominated and iodinated DBPs. This review aims to provide a summary of research into bromide and iodide removal from drinking water sources. Bromide and iodide removal techniques have been broadly classified into three categories, namely; membrane, electrochemical and adsorptive techniques. Reverse osmosis, nanofiltration and electrodialysis membrane techniques are reviewed. The electrochemical techniques discussed are electrolysis, capacitive deionization and membrane capacitive deionization. Studies on bromide and iodide removal using adsorptive techniques including; layered double hydroxides, impregnated activated carbons, carbon aerogels, ion exchange resins, aluminium coagulation and soils are also assessed. Halide removal techniques have been compared, and areas for future research have been identified.

Ecosystem services and integrated water resource management: different paths to the same end?

The two concepts that presently dominate water resource research and management are the Global Water Partnership's (GWP, 2000) interpretation of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and Ecosystem Services (ES) as interpreted by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005). Both concepts are subject to mounting criticism, with a significant number of critiques focusing on both their conceptual and methodological incompatibility with management and governance, what has come to be known as the 'implementation gap'. Emergent within the ES and IWRM literatures, then, are two parallel debates concerning the gap between conceptualisation and implementation. Our purpose for writing this review is to argue: 1) that IWRM and ES have evolved into nearly identical concepts, 2) that they face the same critical challenge of implementation, and 3) that, if those interested in water research and management are to have a positive impact on the sustainable utilisation of dwindling water resources, they must break the tendency to jump from concept to concept and confront the challenges that arise with implementation.

Academic aspects of lunar water resources and their relevance to lunar protolife.

Water ice has been discovered on the moon by radar backscatter at the North Pole and by spectrometry at the South Pole in the Cabeus crater with an extrapolated volume for both poles of conservatively 10(9) metric tons. Various exogenic and endogenic sources of this water have been proposed. This paper focuses on endogenic water sources by fumaroles and hot springs in shadowed polar craters. A survey of theoretical and morphological details supports a volcanic model. Release of water and other constituents by defluidization over geological time was intensified in the Hadean Eon (c.a. 4600 to 4000 My). Intensification factors include higher heat flow by now-extinct radionuclides, tidal flexing and higher core temperatures. Lesser gravity would promote deeper bubble nucleation in lunar magmas, slower rise rates of gases and enhanced subsidence of lunar caldera floors. Hadean volcanism would likely have been more intense and regional in nature as opposed to suture-controlled location of calderas in Phanerozoic Benioff-style subduction environments. Seventy-seven morphological, remote sensing and return sample features were categorized into five categories ranging from a volcano-tectonic origin only to impact origin only. Scores for the most logical scenario were 69 to eight in favor of lunar volcanism. Ingredients in the Cabeus plume analysis showed many volcanic fluids and their derivatives plus a large amount of mercury. Mercury-rich fumaroles are well documented on Earth and are virtually absent in cometary gases and solids. There are no mercury anomalies in terrestrial impact craters. Volcanic fluids and their derivatives in lunar shadow can theoretically evolve into protolife. Energy for this evolution can be provided by vent flow charging intensified in the lunar Hadean and by charge separation on freezing fumarolic fluids in shadow. Fischer-Tropsch reactions on hydrothermal clays can yield lipids, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and amino acids. Soluble polyphosphates are available in volcanic fluids as well as vital catalysts such as tungsten. We conclude that the high volume of polar water resources supports the likelihood of lunar volcanism and that lunar volcanism supports the likelihood of protolife.