Predictability of the UK variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic.
Science
; 294(5547): 1729-31, 2001 Nov 23.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-11679631
ABSTRACT
Back-calculation analysis of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the United Kingdom is used to estimate the number of infected individuals and future disease incidence. The model assumes a hazard of infection proportional to the incidence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the United Kingdom and accounts for precautionary control measures and very wide ranges of incubation periods. The model indicates that current case data are compatible with numbers of infections ranging from a few hundred to several millions. In the latter case, the model suggests that the mean incubation period must be well beyond the human life-span, resulting in disease epidemics of at most several thousand cases.
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Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Variação Genética
/
Síndrome de Creutzfeldt-Jakob
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Animals
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Humans
/
Infant
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Ano de publicação:
2001
Tipo de documento:
Article