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A mathematical model of Rift Valley Fever with human host.
Mpeshe, Saul C; Haario, Heikki; Tchuenche, Jean M.
Afiliação
  • Mpeshe SC; Department of Mathematics, Tumaini University, Iringa University College, P.O. Box 200, Iringa, Tanzania.
Acta Biotheor ; 59(3-4): 231-50, 2011 Dec.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21611886
Rift Valley Fever is a vector-borne disease mainly transmitted by mosquito. To gain some quantitative insights into its dynamics, a deterministic model with mosquito, livestock, and human host is formulated as a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and analyzed. The disease threshold [Formula: see text] is computed and used to investigate the local stability of the equilibria. A sensitivity analysis is performed and the most sensitive model parameters to the measure of initial disease transmission [Formula: see text] and the endemic equilibrium are determined. Both [Formula: see text] and the disease prevalence in mosquitoes are more sensitive to the natural mosquito death rate, d(m). The disease prevalence in livestock and humans are more sensitive to livestock and human recruitment rates, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], respectively, suggesting isolation of livestock from humans is a viable preventive strategy during an outbreak. Numerical simulations support the analytical results in further exploring theoretically the long-term dynamics of the disease at the population level.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Febre do Vale de Rift / Vírus da Febre do Vale do Rift / Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita / Modelos Teóricos Tipo de estudo: Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2011 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Febre do Vale de Rift / Vírus da Febre do Vale do Rift / Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita / Modelos Teóricos Tipo de estudo: Risk_factors_studies Limite: Humans Idioma: En Ano de publicação: 2011 Tipo de documento: Article